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[ASL6] Ro8 Preview Pt 1 - Outlasting Rain

Forum Index > BW General
14 CommentsPost a Reply

[ASL6] Ro8 Preview Pt 1 - Outlasting Rain

Text byBigFan
Graphics byHaN
October 6th, 2018 18:28 GMT
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The quarterfinals are finally here and man has this ASL been soooo good. In every group in the Ro16, we've witnessed incredible games, and just when you thought it couldn't get any better, the rest of the Ro16 shattered expectations! Group C was filled with great players such as BeSt, Mini, Shine and Last who put on quite the show, as Mini and Last advanced in first and second place respectively. Please read the recap by BigFan for more details.

Group D was extremely hyped up as Flash and Jaedong clashed offline for the first time in close to 2 years. While their games delivered and were what the fans wanted, Action stole some of the limelight, defeating both Light and Jaedong in some fantastic games that involved a lot of preparation. It was a truly great night, even with Jaedong eliminated as Action and Flash advanced in first and second place respectively. Please read the recap by Ziggy for more details.

After the drawing was done, the quarterfinal groups were determined. Group A has Sharp going up against Last, while group B has EffOrt going up against Rain. Please read our group A and B previews written by Ty2 and BigFan respectively then let's get hyped for more BW as group A is set to start in !

Table of contents

  • Intro
  •  
  • Group C Recap
  • Group D Recap
  •  
  • Sharp vs Last Preview
  • EffOrt vs Rain Preview
  •  
  • (Wiki)Liquipedia
Group A Preview

Anyone's Guess


A group consisting of (Z)Shine, (P)Mini, (P)Best and (T)Last can be extremely unpredictable. Even more so when most of these players can take games off the others on a good day.

Match #1 - Mini vs Shine on Neo Transistor
This was another game that showed Shine's bag of builds as he managed to bust up Mini's base with some lurkers and zerglings, killing the cannons at the ramp. However, Mini persevered, getting an obs out asap, and using corsairs and dark templars to great effort. He was able to kill Shine's expansion, and then later on killed the third base for Shine while he maintained control of his bases. Up against the might of the protoss army, Shine eventually had to gg out.

Match #2 - BeSt vs Last on Neo Transistor
Last played this game fantastically, opting for a similar build to what Flash did against Snow in the last ASL. After expanding, he went up to 3 fac and pushed out with some marines, a single medic, some tanks and a wraith for vision. BeSt scouted the incoming push and tried to delay it, but he was pushed back and up the ramp in his main. Last ended up planting a bunker and survived BeSt's reaver/goon push before he eventually pushed up the ramp to take the game.

[image loading]

Winners' Match - Mini vs Last on Sylphid
Deciding to switch things up a bit, Last went for a 2 factory while Mini went for 1 gate FE skipping the first zealot. It looked like things would end in Last's favour, however, Mini added 2 more gates soon after and with the combined production, he was able to outmicro Last and stop his push. From there, Mini played well to keep things in his favour, taking another engagement in the center where Last lost most of his tanks. Once his economy and army grew several folds, he eventually busted Last's natural for the win. Mini is the first to advance to the Ro8!

Losers' Match - Shine vs BeSt on Sylphid
On paper, this seemed like a bad matchup for BeSt who's a macro beast, and when Shine managed to run zerglings into BeSt's main, it seemed all but over. Even more so when Shine had already grabbed a fourth and had massed a huge hydra army. However, BeSt knew what he had to do. Realizing his predicament, he added many more gateways, got his upgrades, teched to storm, then defended the incoming hydra busts from Shine like a madman. With his army growing in size, BeSt eventually pushed out to secure the third outside his base, and ended up facing Shine's army. He took the engagement, established his third and rolled Shine over with his macro soon after!

Finals' Match - Last vs BeSt on Circuit Breaker
Last has been slowly regaining his old scary form since the KSL days and this match showed just how well he can play with an advantage. After opening with a cc first and getting scouted last, Last played safe, expanding to a third while BeSt was trying to play catch up after going for 1 gate FE. Instead of getting more expansions, BeSt opted for arbiters. Alas, that was his undoing as Last built up his army and slowly marched across the map, laying siege to BeSt's fourth base before attacking the expansion to win a one-sided game and advance to the Ro8!

[image loading]

(P)Mini and (T)Last advanced to the quarterfinals!

Group B Preview

The End of Tyranny

When both Flash and Jaedong decided to give the second season of the KSL a miss, citing the need to focus solely on the ASL, many started to question the feasibility of two StarLeagues running parallel to one another. Although my personal belief is that by giving lesser players a chance to compete on television the scene will surely benefit in the long run, the majority of casual viewers are more likely to tune in to watch players the caliber of God Young Ho or the Tyrant himself. That notion certainly rang true as the AfreecaTV studio in Gangnam got filled to the brim hours before the start of group D, featuring Flash, Jaedong, Action, and Light.

Match #1 - Flash vs Jaedong on Neo Transistor
Starting the day off on Neo Transistor, Flash spawned in the top right, Jaedong in the bottom on the same side. A hatch first opening for Jaedong was answered by Flash’s 1 rax expand on 20 supply, followed up by a second barracks. The Terran managed to find one of Jaedong’s overlords out on the map, denying any further scouting, whilst gaining intel with a worker in the Zerg’s base.

Flash’s scv, although missing the departing flood of lings, stayed in the Zerg’s natural long enough for the Ultimate Weapon to realize money must have been spent on things other than economy. Despite that, Flash misread the situation, quickly finding his marines surrounded by speedlings running up from either ramp, significantly reducing the Terran’s firepower.

[image loading]

With two hatch mutalisks on the way and insufficient defense in place, Jaedong whittled down the remaining Terran force with ease, knocking Flash down to the losers’ match.

Match #2 - Action vs Light on Neo Transistor
When Action proxy hatched Mong on Autobahn in the Round of 24, it became apparent that he’s got things planned for this ASL. With an opponent as well-versed in TvZ as Light, Action would have to pull another wonky strategy out of his bag of builds (that he’d most likely nicked from Shine). Spawning in the centre left against Light in the bottom right on Neo Transistor, Action ended up losing an overlord rather early on, which significantly slowed down his early game progression. The 2 hatch muta followup, although not doing any direct damage, kept Light contained in his bottom right corner, allowing Action to go up to an extremely quick hive on 2 bases. Despite a decently timed scan revealing the hive timing, Light never caught wind of the incoming proxy nydus, finding himself beleaguered by lurkers under dark swarm at the 10-minute mark. Without a proper response, Light tapped out.

[image loading]

Winners' Match - Jaedong vs Action on Sylphid
With both favourites of the opening matches down in the losers’ match and the underdogs facing off in the winners’, things were yet to get saucy.

Jaedong’s the bogeyman in every Zerg’s closet, the Freddy in their nightmares. On paper, facing Action could have just as well been a free pass to the Round of 8. The build order roulette gave Jaedong a decent head start on his opponent, with a 12 pool opening against a 9 pool on the other side of the map. Things kept falling in place as Action’s lings got scouted by an overlord turning around once JD realized he’d sent it to the wrong spawning location on Sylphid. Playing a game of cat and mouse, the Tyrant eventually managed to bait Action into committing to the ling pressure, surrounding the attacking force and significantly reducing the latter’s map presence.

A momentary lapse of judgment saw JD hesitate, as his counter-attack failed to push through to Action’s main, who’d managed to sneak a detachment of lings of his own to take control of JD’s natural. Evening things out eco-wise, the former KT Zerg retreated, keeping JD in check with a handful of mutalisks. A miscalculation on Action’s part gave Jaedong the leeway he needed, slipping through to the main base, forcing a drone pull, though not finding that much direct eco damage.

The pace of the game eventually slowed down, allowing Jaedong to invest in a muta force of his own. The eco advantage accrued by JD over the course of the game left Action behind in all aspects of the game, with fewer drones, mutas, scourge, and a nasty supply block hitting right as Jaedong moved out. The only thing keeping the Tyrant back were Action’s lings, constantly threatening with a counter.

Jaedong eventually decided to pounce. Flying into Action’s main with 11 mutas and a bunch of scourge, the defender found himself a single mutalisk behind. Better scourge connections and closer reinforcements suddenly see-sawed the advantage in Action’s favour, who, during the attack, also snuck a handful of lings into the enemy drone line.

[image loading]

Almost doubling Jaedong’s supply, Action chose not to over-commit, catching JD’s remaining mutalisks to further his lead. With his eco in tatters and nothing to contest the muta flock, Jaedong tapped out. Action got out of group D in first place!

Losers' Match - Flash vs Light on Sylphid
Facing elimination was not what either Flash or Light had in mind, I reckon, as the TvT on Sylphid got underway. Light, spawning in the bottom right, while Flash, having taken the usual swig of Pocari Sweat, randomized to the top centre location. Light, opting to go for a 1 rax expansion, found himself going up against a factory expand. Adding a second factory, Flash’s game plan consisted of applying as much pressure early on as possible. Upon scouting no further production facilities, Flash opted for an academy + armory combo, countering Light’s 2 port wraith follow-up. As the goliaths started reinforcing the push, Light, having delayed siege mode in favour of continuous wraith production, found himself unable to thwart Flash’s advance.

[image loading]

The Ultimate Weapon pushed through, eliminating Light from the ASL.

Finals' Match - Flash vs Jaedong on Circuit Beaker
The rematch to top all rematches - Flash versus Jaedong. The unnerving reality that one of the absolute favourites to take the season would not get past the Round of 16, all in a single game on Circuit Breaker, was witnessed by over 85,000 viewers on AfreecaTV.

Flash, the brown Terran spawned in the top left hand corner while Jaedong, the green Zerg spawned in the top right. Jaedong, having fallen to Last 0:4 in the KSL finals, found himself going up against the very style that had done him in. Flash’s 1:1:1 opening quickly ended up on the receiving end of a 3 hatch ling flood, as the first vulture fell to speedlings in the centre of the map. Keeping the Terran occupied with constant ling-based pressure, Jaedong switched into mutalisks. The Tyrant’s reliance on aggression became apparent, as JD followed up with a hydralisk den and another batch of lings. Successfully denying Jaedong’s multiple attempts to take a third lulled Flash into a false sense of security, as the three-time ASL champion got blindsided by a hydra bust.

[image loading]

No scv pull from the Terran and things suddenly went topsy-turvy, as Jaedong pushed the defender up his ramp. He had the game under control. Jaedong could have macroed up, could have started researching upgrades, and going further up the tech tree. For some reason, though, JD’s insistence on closing the game out became a major issue, as the Zerg kept throwing units away for no return on investment whatsoever. Slowly but surely, Flash’s tech advantage allowed him to retake control of his natural, and with siege tanks and irradiates on his side, the Terran pushed across the map, eliminating Jaedong from the ASL. Flash did touch on this in more details on his stream, explaining what Jaedong was doing here.

[image loading]

(Z)Action and (T)Flash advanced to the quarterfinals!

Group C Preview

Burly TvT Prodigy vs. Neo-Flash

Sharp in a surprise performance beat Rain and Sea to advance to the Ro8. That's no small task, and now that he's playing in his best matchup, TvT, his chances of advancing only look up.

That is apparently the case, until you notice Last is on the other side. His storyline in the KSL prior was playing the same old tune. He lost his first few games in the same typical mediocre fashion, but managed to jump back to win the entire tournament. He's riding on that same momentum here in the ASL.

But his results make anyone wonder, how did Last improve so much? There is no secret other than hard work, which people take for granted when thinking of players like Flash, who aren't just talented, but simply work tirelessly. In the KSL finals, he said himself he'd practice from morning until dark. Most notably, Last in the past 2 months has played a shockingly low 37 sponsored games and hasn't streamed nearly as often. He's assumedly practicing in private for focused practice sessions. Compared to other top ex-pros, even the least active have played at least 150 games. Most players only exhibit what Last has done in the week prior to playing in a finals to not sacrifice income from regular streaming.

In doing so, Last has taken meaningful practice to another level by sacrificing the low stakes income of sponsored games and balloon donations. That indicates an almost unprecedented dedication to performing in the offline tournaments over growing his stream. However, Last's TvT is the one matchup that hasn't been tested, and historically it's been known to falter in competition. That may not be the case in the wake of Last's renewed competitive streak. In fact, I'm confident Last can play where Sharp is most confident, and beat him at his own game. The sheer amount of energy Last is putting into his practice cannot be understated, and he is going to steamroll the competition.

When the games do finally go down, I'm expecting big swings to be made in the first game - a BBS, maybe even an 8-rax, or another strong 1 base play. It's exactly the kind of edge either one of the players, especially Sharp, may whip out to take hold of the series. Unless it's on transistor, then the choices are fairly limited. Even for Sharp whose forte is TvT, he'll have to look for every advantage he can possibly get.

The second game is almost as vital as a possible fifth, because climbing back from an 0-2 position is nearly impossible. That is exactly the position I see Last putting Sharp in unless risks are taken. Sharp also isn't known to have an especially formidable nerve for offline matches, so Sharp will be practically knocked out by then.

Last on the other hand will be so numb to the game from playing hours on end in practice. We easily risk a bad show much like Last vs. Best where Last's straight up macro game outdid Best, the macrotoss, on all fronts. In the end, all I can say is Last will dominate Sharp 3-0.

Group D Preview

Destiny

This matchup will prove to be very exciting as we see Rain, the ASL5 champion and one of the Top 3 protoss players atm go up against EffOrt, a scrappy Zerg who seems to be his own Achilles' heel at times. Rain is an ASL champion and, it's something that I will reiterate throughout. You don't become a champion by sheer luck. No, what that means is that Rain is able to perform under pressure, and he's stated many times in interviews that he's not nervous in his games. Infact, when things are going his way, he really enjoys playing the game and seems to perform even better.

We've all seen his games first hand in previous ASLs and KSL. His PvZ bares a resemblance to Bisu's with dark templars or storm drops that take place during a frontal attack. Misdirection at its finest, however, unlike Bisu, Rain has not yet fully mastered this otherwise we'll be calling him a PvZ specialist by now. In the previous ASL, he did defeat hero, a ZvP specialist and we've seen other Zergs fall to his PvZ, but let's also keep in mind his mentality which was on full display in KSL. Rain was crushed 4-0 by Jaedong who made him look like a second tier protoss player through a lot of mind games and great plays.

It remains to be seen how much Rain has changed his outlook on the matchup since then, and how he will modify his play to account for EffOrt's playstyle. Adapting, and being extremely cautious will be extremely important against such a formidable foe, and the first game will be a major decider in this series. Rain's overall PvZ winrate sits at 53% with a sample size of 115 games over the course of three months, and against EffOrt, he's 43% over 21 games.

[image loading]

It seems that EffOrt has the advantage in their sponmatches.

EffOrt on the other hand is a great Zerg who seems to get himself eliminated in ZvZs lately, or at least was the case for previous ASLs. This is his first time reaching the quarterfinals in ASL, and there's no doubt that he's excited to finally reach a stage that he's been wanting to be at for a long time. He's a Zerg who has won an OSL, stealing it right from Flash's grasp with a reverse sweep so he's performed under pressure in the past. He's also playing ZvP, a matchup that typically favours Zerg until a certain point, and he's certainly able to mix things up to keep Rain guessing.

His current ZvP winrate sits at a staggering 71% over the course of three months and as mentioned earlier, he's had the upper hand in sponmatches against Rain. In fact, there's not a single Protoss player right now that has a winning record against EffOrt with the closest being Mini who has won 47% of their matches. That speaks volumes to EffOrt's current ZvP form, and how hard it will be for Rain to take this. Much of this series will center on preparation, and scouting. If Rain can deduce what EffOrt is up to, make some solid decisions, and get his macro going, EffOrt will find it rough to contend with him. However, if EffOrt can get inside Rain's mind, and force him to play too safe, faking hydra busts and the like, EffOrt should be able to take this series.

Considering everything, and the fact that EffOrt is the best ZvPer at the moment, I predict him to advance to the semifinals, 3-1.


Writers: Ty2, BigFan and Ziggy
Graphics: HaN
Editors: Bigfan
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Former BW EiC"Watch Bakemonogatari or I will kill you." -Toad, April 18th, 2017
prosatan
Profile Joined September 2009
Romania8038 Posts
October 06 2018 18:48 GMT
#2
Yeap, The End of Tyranny as we know it !

Very good analysis , thank you !!
Lee JaeDong Fighting! The only church that illuminates is the one that burns.
Kurao
Profile Joined April 2018
215 Posts
October 06 2018 20:12 GMT
#3
Very nice recap and predictions!
Personally I would like to see EffOrt advance to the finals and maybe even win, it's been a while :D Although I think at this point it's not unrealistic at all to say that a Last vs FlaSh finals could very well be a reality.
Yanokabo
Profile Joined October 2018
268 Posts
October 06 2018 22:06 GMT
#4
If I were with the writers pen here perhaps spend less words recapping the ro16 and just make the entire article a ro8 preview with just a list of ro16 results? Only half the ro16 results are in this so I’d have to read somewhere else to see them. Sharps been playing really well lately I’d give him a small chance to 3-2 last somehow. Rain effort is a coin flip where both are quite strong, rain is a past asl champ so u can’t count him out. Action shuttle another coin flip, and flash3-0 mini and there’s our ro4.
iFU.pauline
Profile Joined September 2009
France1564 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-10-06 22:28:54
October 06 2018 22:28 GMT
#5
Come on EffOrt, show us who is the best zerg! Against a lower player like Rain I don't expect less than 3/0 from you!
No coward soul is mine, No trembler in the world's storm-troubled sphere, I see Heaven's glories shine, And Faith shines equal arming me from Fear
ChriS-X
Profile Joined June 2011
Malaysia1374 Posts
October 07 2018 01:30 GMT
#6
mafiazerggggggggggg
BisuDagger
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
Bisutopia19239 Posts
October 07 2018 02:54 GMT
#7
Huge call on the Sharp 3-0. If he overcomes nerves he can win a game or two at least.
ModeratorFormer Afreeca Starleague Caster: http://afreeca.tv/ASL2ENG2
NoS-Craig
Profile Joined July 2011
Australia3103 Posts
October 07 2018 03:55 GMT
#8
Thanks for the write-up man. I love me some TvT. Rain vs EffOrt should be an awesome game as well. Both very strong players. It will be interesting to see how Rain handles this after the 4-0 loss to JD.
Artosis loves Starcraft
yubo56
Profile Joined May 2014
688 Posts
October 07 2018 17:06 GMT
#9
Flash did touch on this in more details on his stream, explaining what Jaedong was doing here.


Any synopsis on this? Or is it on youtube?
Jung Yoon Jong fighting, even after retirement! Feel better soon.
phyvo
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States5635 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-10-07 17:45:56
October 07 2018 17:42 GMT
#10
It's a reddit thread and worth the read.

Basically Jaedong *had* to all in aggressively towards the end of the game because Flash's vultures kept on killing the drones that were sent to start the third gas base and Jaedong couldn't stop it. Flash gave JD no way to macro up. The play snuck by all the viewers and casters because even the observer didn't catch it. Given that the article writer was aware of Flash explaining all this I'm honestly not sure why the information was hidden behind a link rather than included in the article.
"BE A MANGO TO SLEEP LIKE A SNORING TIGER" - Monte
]343[
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States10328 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-10-10 00:39:05
October 10 2018 00:38 GMT
#11
On October 08 2018 02:42 phyvo wrote:
It's a reddit thread and worth the read.


took me a bit to find that reddit link, so here it is: https://old.reddit.com/r/broodwar/comments/9lj6pn/flash_reviews_and_explains_his_own_games_in_asl6/
Writer
[AS]Rattus
Profile Joined March 2017
427 Posts
October 10 2018 01:31 GMT
#12
thx, very interesting read
JieXian
Profile Blog Joined August 2008
Malaysia4677 Posts
October 10 2018 04:23 GMT
#13
On October 08 2018 02:42 phyvo wrote:
It's a reddit thread and worth the read.

Basically Jaedong *had* to all in aggressively towards the end of the game because Flash's vultures kept on killing the drones that were sent to start the third gas base and Jaedong couldn't stop it. Flash gave JD no way to macro up. The play snuck by all the viewers and casters because even the observer didn't catch it. Given that the article writer was aware of Flash explaining all this I'm honestly not sure why the information was hidden behind a link rather than included in the article.


You're right, I think the writers should have included a summary of the reddit article at least.
Please send me a PM of any song you like that I most probably never heard of! I am looking for people to chat about writing and producing music | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=noD-bsOcxuU |
BigFan
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
TLADT24920 Posts
October 10 2018 04:34 GMT
#14
There was a lot of information provided in that reddit link. It's much easier to drop the link for anyone who wants further information than to summarize the main points, and extend the recap even further. On that point, I ended up adding the link in myself, and it wasn't part of the original writeup. Thought it was a good link to share for those who didn't read the LR, and might be wondering more about Flash's thoughts on the games.
Former BW EiC"Watch Bakemonogatari or I will kill you." -Toad, April 18th, 2017
reincremate
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
China2213 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-10-11 08:27:25
October 11 2018 08:07 GMT
#15
Edit: oops, I forgot it hasn't been more than 24 hours since Effort vs Rain. Spoilers in spoiler.
+ Show Spoiler +
It's pretty much a given that Last will beat Effort, and Flash will roflstomp Mini. Mini might be able to take one game with some shameless ridiculous imba Protoss shenanigans, but that won't be enough in a Bo5 against Flash.

The real story, however, is that this time around ASL is short for <<<Action Starleague>>>. Shuttle, despite being a former ASL champion, will be ezpz cannon fodder (defiler fodder) for The Mafia Zerg, because we don't have silly Protoss-favoured maps like Sparkle this time around. Then Flash of course also won't be able to overcome his former teammate/practice house beast's invincible defilers. Then Action just has to repeat what he does to Flash (the number 1 Terran) to Last (the number 2 Terran, so this is basic math) and it's GG. Action ASL 6 champion!
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