EPT
KT SKT Khan and CJ are definitely the top half of the teams no doubt.
The Deepest Team in Proleague - Page 3
| Forum Index > BW General |
|
Archers_bane
United States1338 Posts
KT SKT Khan and CJ are definitely the top half of the teams no doubt. | ||
|
moopie
12605 Posts
Overall team performance per map: + Show Spoiler +
Number of times players have been sent out on each map (for predicting future lineups) + Show Spoiler +
| ||
|
docvoc
United States5491 Posts
| ||
|
kdgns
United States2427 Posts
On February 29 2012 14:47 docvoc wrote: What does this prove? that some teams are uneven? I'm a bit confused at to what this shows other than the fact that there are imbalances in the deepness of each team in each season. you can use it as a predictor for odds of winning when the format goes to bo7 in the post season | ||
|
a7choi
United States1664 Posts
| ||
|
VGhost
United States3608 Posts
Ranking after this week: 1.  Flash 13.07 (14-1)2. Fantasy 10.29 (12-2)3.  Stork 7.56 (11-5)3.  Neo.G_Soulkey 7.56 (11-5)5. Leta 6.75 (9-3)6. Stats 6.67 (10-5)7. Jaedong 6.25 (10-6)8. Bisu 5.88 (10-7)8. BeSt 5.88 (10-7)10. Last 5.79 (9-5)11. Crazy-Hydra 5.44 (7-2)12. BaBy 4.92 (8-5)13. EffOrt 4.57 (8-6)14. Dear 4.50 (6-2)15. TurN 4.17 (5-1)16. Brave 4.00 (6-3)And then I wasn't sure whether to include: 17. Hydra 3.77 (7-6)17. JangBi 3.77 (7-6)19. Calm 3.60 (6-4)By team (all 19): ACE: 0 WJN: 1 (#t3 Neo.G_Soulkey)T8: 2 (#7 Jaedong, #12 BaBy)STX: 3 (#10 Last, #14 Dear, #19 Calm)CJ: 3 (#5 Leta, #13 EffOrt, #t17 Hydra)SKT: 3 (#2 Fantasy, #t8 BeSt, #t8 Bisu)KT: 3 (#1 Flash, #6 Stats, #11 Crazy-Hydra)KHAN: 4 (#t3 Stork, #15 Brave, #16 TurN, #t16 JangBi)Top 18 drops Calm out and would put STX behind T8. Top 16 (no question marks) drops Hydra and Jangbi as well: KHAN would move behind KT and SKT, and STX would again drop behind T8. | ||
|
Mortality
United States4790 Posts
On February 29 2012 15:05 a7choi wrote: i honestly believe samsung has the deepest team. they have a bunch of capable players, allowing them to be quite versatile with their lineup. however, january.. However January what? If you're going to say that she's a troll coach who holds the team back, people have been saying that for years and I think they are all wrong. See, I don't actually think Khan is anywhere close to being the deepest team. SKT and CJ are both ahead by a country mile. Even Woongjin might be deeper. I think their line-up is incredibly underrated. For that matter, I'd consider Khan's line-up to be about on par with KT's, which is also badly underrated as everyone always insists they can't win without Flash, which isn't true this season (they have at least once this season won a match without Flash even playing). Khan's key to success right now is that they are making very effective use of snipers. Even Jangbi and Stork are to some extent being used for sniping purposes (the two of them combined account for a combined total of 9 matches on Jade). For comparison purposes, CJ's line-up of Effort, Hydra, Movie, Snow, Horang2, Leta, AND SkyHigh is just mind-boggling. 6 of those players have ELO peaked over 2200. That's absolutely ridiculous. The problem for CJ is that they somehow aren't functioning properly. I think what they are trying to do is spread their players out and rely on the talent of the line-up to secure wins, but the problem is that they aren't focusing their resources where they could make the biggest difference. For SKT, Bisu and Fantasy are in theory the biggest 1-2 punch any roster has available BY FAR. The problem for SKT is a bit different than for CJ. SKT's problem is that Fantasy and Bisu never seem to be both on fire at the same time. If Bisu is hot, Fantasy is trolling. Recall for example last year when Fantasy slumped and then went into a period of inconsistency... and won OSL at the same time. If Fantasy is hot, Bisu is slumping. Even last year, if you take a look there was a period when Bisu had a bad run of something like 4 straight losses and this coincided to Fantasy's most part of the season. Furthermore, Best is just plain unreliable. You never know what you're going to get out of him. Which is a huge shame because he is so damn talented. If inside sources like Kingdom are to be believed, A LOT of Protoss metagame comes out of Best. In a BO7 or a BO9 situation, I think Khan would be less successful. Right now Khan is able to use its long list of alternates with more effect than any other team in PL, but if the number of games are increased, then that means there are less options for sniping as there will be another spot that needs to be filled from the same number of prospective snipers. | ||
Kipsate
Netherlands45349 Posts
| ||
|
VGhost
United States3608 Posts
1. Flash 14.06 (15-1) 2. fantasy 10.29 (12-2) 3. Stork 8.47 (12-5) 4. Jaedong 7.12 (11-6) 4. Neo.G_SoulKey 7.12 (11-6) 6. Bisu 6.72 (11-7) 6. BeSt 6.72 (11-7) 8. Stats 6.25 (10-6) 9. Leta 6.23 (9-4) 10. Last 5.79 (9-5) 11. Crazy-Hydra 5.44 (7-2) 11. Dear 5.44 (7-2) 13. EffOrt 5.40 (9-6) 14. BaBy 4.57 (8-6) 15. Calm 4.45 (7-4) 16. TurN 4.17 (5-1) Teams by top 16: ACE: 0 Stars: 1 (#t4 Neo.G_SoulKey) CJ: 2 (#9 Leta, #13 EffOrt) KHAN: 2 (#3 Stork, #16 TurN) T8: 2 (#t4 Jaedong, #14 BaBy) STX: 3 (#10 Last, #11 Dear, #15 Calm) KT: 3 (#1 Flash, #8 Stats, #11 Crazy-Hydra) SKT: 3 (#2 fantasy, #t6 Bisu, #t6 BeSt) | ||
|
gutshot
United States429 Posts
| ||
|
VGhost
United States3608 Posts
On March 08 2012 00:23 gutshot wrote: The only reason why Khan has 3~4 players in the top 18 this season is because of the maps. Brave wouldn't be doing so good (6-3) if the old version of Chain Reaction was so good for Protoss. Turn is on his streak just like he did last year(then he failed badly). Stork normally doesn't have that good winning ratio(no offence, but he statistically loses more). Same goes with Jangbi. Also, most of the maps that are being used pretty much favor Protoss over Zerg. Just looking at the data at the moment is just so flawed. If you are going to do an analysis like this, do it for at least last 3 years. really? even the top 18 players have played about 12~13 games average. Do the same for the last 3 years and I am sure you can't say Khan is the deepest team due to number of players in the ranking. First of all, sure, maps. I'm sure the maps help. But they're not helping CJ's Protoss; Wooki and Sun are doing worse than projected; Shuttle hasn't won a game (not that he's been played much). I'm sure maps are a partial cause, but they're not a sufficient cause. Second, TurN didn't "fail badly". He certainly opened on an unsustainable streak; but he was a rookie and finished with a winning record. Third, Stork's 12-5 (70.6%) is only about a game or two away from his 60% career winning rate. If he had lost one of the games he won, 11-6 is 64.7%. If he loses the next one, he's at 66.7%. There's no significant difference from his career record - and it's impossible to discount the possibility he's playing better than his career average (whether absolutely or just because of no Starleague pressure). Let's start with the part where he's probably the player to come closest to beating Flash (excepting Dear, of course), essentially throwing away a miraculously evened-up game with poor late game planning (carriers) and worse micro. Fourth, Jangbi is doing pretty badly compared to expectations. 7-8? Really? That's what we expect from the last OSL winner? Jangbi managed to lose to Piano early in the year. Fifth, I'm not trying to look at the last three years - and if I wanted to, I don't know where I'd start. In the last three seasons, we've had three different formats for Proleague, and that's even without trying to account for Winners League the previous two seasons. Then start trying to work out the fallout of transfers and retirements (to take just one team, KT's seen fOrGG, Mind, Action, Crazy-Hydra, and Perfectman come in, fOrGG, 815, and Perfective leave) and disbandments. What I am doing is looking at this year's results so far. I'm sure if I wanted to put the effort in, and was really interested in projections forward, previous results would be informative; but this is really just a "state of the league" table, not a predictive effort. Sixth, while I don't have the data for two years ago, I did collect it from last season. KHAN last season was one of two teams with 6 15-game winners (the other was SKT). And they added two more in RorO and Shine. Nobody else made acquisitions close to that good based on previous records: sHy's looking like a good pickup, and Perfectman was pretty decent last season, and that's about it. So if I did look at past years' records to construct a deepest team projection, KHAN would almost certainly be in the top three. (The other two would be SKT and, I think, CJ despite their poor showing this year.) And seventh, I rest my case. | ||
|
gutshot
United States429 Posts
On March 08 2012 01:11 VGhost wrote: First of all, sure, maps. I'm sure the maps help. But they're not helping CJ's Protoss; Wooki and Sun are doing worse than projected; Shuttle hasn't won a game (not that he's been played much). I'm sure maps are a partial cause, but they're not a sufficient cause. Second, TurN didn't "fail badly". He certainly opened on an unsustainable streak; but he was a rookie and finished with a winning record. Third, Stork's 12-5 (70.6%) is only about a game or two away from his 60% career winning rate. If he had lost one of the games he won, 11-6 is 64.7%. If he loses the next one, he's at 66.7%. There's no significant difference from his career record - and it's impossible to discount the possibility he's playing better than his career average (whether absolutely or just because of no Starleague pressure). Let's start with the part where he's probably the player to come closest to beating Flash (excepting Dear, of course), essentially throwing away a miraculously evened-up game with poor late game planning (carriers) and worse micro. Fourth, Jangbi is doing pretty badly compared to expectations. 7-8? Really? That's what we expect from the last OSL winner? Jangbi managed to lose to Piano early in the year. Fifth, I'm not trying to look at the last three years - and if I wanted to, I don't know where I'd start. In the last three seasons, we've had three different formats for Proleague, and that's even without trying to account for Winners League the previous two seasons. Then start trying to work out the fallout of transfers and retirements (to take just one team, KT's seen fOrGG, Mind, Action, Crazy-Hydra, and Perfectman come in, fOrGG, 815, and Perfective leave) and disbandments. What I am doing is looking at this year's results so far. I'm sure if I wanted to put the effort in, and was really interested in projections forward, previous results would be informative; but this is really just a "state of the league" table, not a predictive effort. Sixth, while I don't have the data for two years ago, I did collect it from last season. KHAN last season was one of two teams with 6 15-game winners (the other was SKT). And they added two more in RorO and Shine. Nobody else made acquisitions close to that good based on previous records: sHy's looking like a good pickup, and Perfectman was pretty decent last season, and that's about it. So if I did look at past years' records to construct a deepest team projection, KHAN would almost certainly be in the top three. (The other two would be SKT and, I think, CJ despite their poor showing this year.) And seventh, I rest my case. I don't understand why you emphasize 15 game winners. If you were to look at 20 game winners, the number significantly decreases down to 2. Khan had the least number of 20 game winners and it's still the deepest team? and it's after all 6 rounds totaling up 54 matches. I guess you made a typo with Shy*, does Shine really look like a good pickup for you? his 2011 year stats are 3-14. Sure he is looking like he is doing better recently winning games against Great, KaL, Free. Look up these guys and see how they are doing this season. (especially Great, His games have been so terrible this season I don't know if he even practices anymore) all in all, Khan maybe the deepest protoss team(and I certainly think they are), but definitely not the deepest team. | ||
|
Mortality
United States4790 Posts
On March 08 2012 02:18 gutshot wrote: I don't understand why you emphasize 15 game winners. If you were to look at 20 game winners, the number significantly decreases down to 2. Khan had the least number of 20 game winners and it's still the deepest team? and it's after all 6 rounds totaling up 54 matches. I guess you made a typo with Shy*, does Shine really look like a good pickup for you? his 2011 year stats are 3-14. Sure he is looking like he is doing better recently winning games against Great, KaL, Free. Look up these guys and see how they are doing this season. (especially Great, His games have been so terrible this season I don't know if he even practices anymore) all in all, Khan maybe the deepest protoss team(and I certainly think they are), but definitely not the deepest team. I agree fundamentally with what you are saying, although the part about Shy was to show another team's good pickup, and I think Shine's a stronger player than you're giving him credit. Otherwise I agree. Stork and Jangbi are indisputably the core of Khan's line-up. And just because Turn and Brave have much better looking stats than Jangbi does not mean that they are as good, nor does it mean they are as valuable. A player like Brave is able to secure his wins through dedicating himself to the sniper role. The majority of his games over the past year have been played on only 2 maps. Much easier to train for 2 maps than for 12, or however many we've had over a 12 month period. Khan works harder than any other team to secure the snipe, whether it be sniping a map or sniping a race. | ||
| ||
