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As of today, seventy-two players have played at least one game in Proleague. Their successes and failures range all the way from KT Rolster's Flash, with thirteen wins in thirteen games, to Samsung KHAN's Juni, who was brought on to play one game and lost so badly even Coach January hasn't sent him out again.
While not purporting to represent authentically how well or badly a player is playing, I did fiddle around until I found a basic calculation to sort unequal records. It's got weaknesses: a loss with no offsetting wins simply isn't counted, so Juni and Grape (0-4) end up with the same goose-egg (then again, Grape's better than Juni). But at the top I think it does a decent job sorting out players, at least by actual wins and losses if not skill. The top 18:
1. Flash (KT), 13.00 (13-0) 2. Fantasy (SKT), 9.31 (11-2) 3. Neo.G_Soulkey (Stars), 8.64 (11-3) 4. Stork (KHAN), 7.56 (11-5) 5. Jaedong (T8), 6.67 (10-5) 6. Bisu (SKT), 5.88 (10-7) 7. Stats (KT), 5.79 (9-5) 8. BaBy (T8), 5.33 (8-4) 9. BeSt (SKT), 5.06 (9-7) 10. Last (STX), 4.92 (8-5) 11. Leta (CJ), 4.90 (7-3) 12. TurN (KHAN), 4.17 (5-1) 12. Dear (STX), 4. 17 (5-1) 14. EffOrt (CJ), 4.08 (7-5) 14. JangBi (KHAN), 4.08 (7-5) 16. Brave (KHAN), 4.00 (6-3) 16. Calm (STX), 4.00 (6-3) 18. Crazy-Hydra (KT), 3.57 (5-2)
I realize 18 is a sort of odd number. It's (neatly) 25% of the 72 I mentioned up at the top of the post, but I attach no real importance to that curiosity. The real point is that everyone below CH is either short on wins or winning percentage to keep up. A few games, and some of the bottom of this list and the top of the rest could trade places. As may be.
The important point to this topic is noting who's at the top, however they got there. Breaking it down by team:
Air Force ACE: 0 (Kal ranks #t19 with a 6-5 record.) Woongjin Stars: 1 (#3 Neo.G_Soulkey. Stars' other stars are clustered in the 20-25 area.) CJ Entus 2 (#11 Leta, #14 EffOrt. Other Entusmen are within shouting distance: Hydra (#t19) and Movie (#t26).) Team 8 2 (#5 Jaedong, #8 BaBy. Jaehoon is #23. The others...) STX SouL 3 (#10 Last, #13 Dear, #17 Calm.) KT Rolster 3 (#1 Flash, #7 Stats, #18 Crazy-Hydra. Wooki is #24.) SK Telecom t1 3 (#2 Fantasy, #6 Bisu, #9 BeSt. SKT's 4th best, n.Die_soO, doesn't show up until #t30.) Samsung KHAN 4 (#4 Stork, #12 TurN, #t14 JangBi, #t16 Brave. Reality is tied at 26th with Movie.)
That Samsung KHAN is the deepest team in Proleague should come as no surprise. Last year's campaign featured somewhere between two and four impressive rookies, depending on your impressions of TurN, Grape, Brave, and Reality. With an extra year of playing time, and smart additions of Shine and RorO to finally bolster their Zerg line, KHAN should have been among the favorites to take it all - as they have amply demonstrated by now by vaulting to the top of the league, hammering previous leaders KT Rolster twice in two weeks.
Of those not quite at that level, KT Rolster and SK Telecom T1 follow them closely in depth and in the standings. In fact, while the dreaded three-headed dragon of SKT is well-known and maybe even over-rated, KT's success deserves a notice.
Compare KT to Woongjin. If you asked the average Brood War fan - certainly before the season, but maybe even now - which was the deeper team, you would get about 70% saying Woongjin, and the number would be higher except KT has a lot of fans. But in reality, so far KT's the one putting up solid results across the board - Crazy-Hydra's 5-2 would be a nice addition to Woongjin's record if Stars had kept him - and Woongjin is, essentially, barely hanging on behind an all-star performance from their newest ace, Neo.G_Soulkey.
The ace match may have gone, but I'm inclined to think that it's not a coincidence the top four teams right now are the four teams with the four best players in the game, by record: Flash, fantasy, Soulkey, and Stork.
Of course, what you do with your good players also matters: for instance, STX's initially apparent depth is belied by their placement - all at the bottom of the good end - and the utter lack of anything behind those three. Bogus is now 5-8 on the year; hyvaa is somehow STX's 5th, and is 4-6.
I said at the beginning my calculation doesn't sort out losing players if all they do is lose: however, by comparing the number for the whole team to the numbers put up by each player, we can see, team by team, which one's doing the best with what they have:
Flash puts KT way out in front, but continued play with poor results from Mind, HoeJJa, and Action is hurting them. Of course, the Proleague season is a marathon, and none of those three are scrubs, and KT *does* need a fifth player sometimes. So long-term it's not a bad thing. But the idea that Flash is being let down by his teammates persists because it is still a real thing. It's just that now it's the tail end of the order that's weak, not the #3 spot (or #2 if Lux was off doing sinister things that week).
We should also be developing the idea that Calm (or maybe Last?) simply doesn't have a team behind him. STX's results compared to its best players are actually worse than KT's, which is depressing: STX ought to be in contention, but just can't get there. One wonders what KHAN's or SKT's coaches could do with this group.
On the other end of the spectrum, Woongjin and CJ - two teams with assumed star power but mediocre results - are actually showing almost as well as they could be. In Woongjin's case, this is because they have nobody else to play - Team Eight shows the same pattern. In CJ's case, it seems to be more that all of their players are identical pretty good automatons, with better or worse luck as may be.
(It's worth nothing that even though I've talked up the differences, they may not be that significant: the worst team by this comparison (STX) still is playing at 82% of their players' raw value; the best (Woongjin) only has 92%. Does that 10% matter?
Also worth noting: I'm tracking games only, here, so good or bad luck with 3-2 matches shifts teams *coughkhancough* in the standings while that doesn't necessarily match the overall game records.)
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very nice analysis, thanks ^_^
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I said that KT has the deeper team at the beginning of the season and I have a Woongjin tag? O.o? I think the notion that KT is shallow came from anti-fans who basically recycled the whole lolKTFlash idea.
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zOmGdz liek plz sp0ilar diZ plXz
Honeztly, I have too much I want to zay about diz...
User was temp banned for this post.
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I think we should gimp the statistics by only looking at the top 10 because that's a neat number and not at all because it'd make SKT look like the powerhouse it should be.
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i think we all knew khan was the deepest team without any analysis at all
that being said, cool analysis, m8
i always enjoy your reports
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Very interesting stats. I think it would be worth applying these methods to some older seasons. See if your analysis really does show a difference in the gap between player performance and team performance with an ace match or without. Also, it would be good to have this with a larger data set.
I always wondered, and you briefly mention it, if there is a sort of cut off on "useful" player skill. There is the sense that having good players improves your team, but realistically, a team with a few stars and lots of scrubs will win a few matches while a team with several average players has a decent chance on losing every match in a close fashion. STX has a pretty reasonable line up but does poorly in overall score; perhaps see if the standard deviation of the player "skill" has any correlation with the team standing. Intuitively, it seems that the teams with a nice sized std dev will be the ones like KT. On the other hand, a huge std. dev. could be a team like woongjin while a small std. dev. could be stx. Both of these teams may use their players effectively and still fail either because of the failure of most players to play up to the standards of the ace or the failure of all players to win much despite all being reasonably skilled.
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Woohoo, KHAN! Nice analysis. I know the results have to rank the players in a particular order... but I honest think every team is "deep" enough in the Bo5 format (yes, even ACE) to take a game away from another team in legitimate fashion. Bo7, and things change. We'll have to wait until the playoffs to see how these teams fair in Bo7, I guess.
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too bad Jaedong is fighting alone for team 8 in the top 10.
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I agree Khan is probably the deepest team, but technically it should be CJ if you look at the lineups. They just botch their picks so much and everybody on there is slumping.
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On February 23 2012 07:54 XenOsky- wrote: too bad Jaedong is fighting alone for team 8 in the top 10. Baby?
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United States9627 Posts
KT!!!
On paper, CJ is actually the deepest team, followed by Khan and SKT. However, because for some reason CJ's players are beginning to have slumps...
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"Deepness" is a hard thing to asses. The issue with this method is that if a team has some good players, then we don't get to see much of the others. Maybe skyhigh, bbyong, miso, and snow are just as good as effort or hydra, but they just never get a chance to start. That would make CJ the deepest by far. I think the bast way is to look at OSL/MSL qualifiers would paint a better picture, but that has problems too.
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SKT/Cj has the deepest team but their poor stats hasn't shone it imo.
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Guys, call it depth instead of "deepness" xd Deepness just sounds weird
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Nice analysis!
I hope Samsung can keep it together. Their dismantling by CJ last week was depressing -_-
I had a strange dream last night that Flash lost a game...I had to check TLPD to make sure lol.
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On February 23 2012 08:43 SkimGuy wrote:Show nested quote +On February 23 2012 07:54 XenOsky- wrote: too bad Jaedong is fighting alone for team 8 in the top 10. Baby?
ahhh u're right... thanks for the correction.
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On February 23 2012 09:00 hacklebeast wrote: "Deepness" is a hard thing to asses. The issue with this method is that if a team has some good players, then we don't get to see much of the others. Maybe skyhigh, bbyong, miso, and snow are just as good as effort or hydra, but they just never get a chance to start. That would make CJ the deepest by far. I think the bast way is to look at OSL/MSL qualifiers would paint a better picture, but that has problems too.
Not to mention that judging only by their performance this PL means that a small bad streak (even 2-3 games) can influence the rankings a lot. Still really interesting to see though, hoping for Zero to actually start winning games sometime in the future >_>.
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CJ doing way worse than I thought they would be before this year ;_;
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i don't understand that graph ><
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Just measuring by PL record is quite flawed, a player with a much more formidable resume and hit-list of players who has to play against every match up / map is ranked much lower than a player who is being prepared for single race / map snipes - where the credit should go to the coaching and preparation than the player himself (for instance, bogus is ranked lower than Dear and Calm because he has to play every match up where as dear has had all PvT's and Calm has had all vP and vZ's on chain reaction). Khan is the best performing team because their coaching realized the potential of having specific map / race snipers (look at brave and turn's map list) bring home the additional win(s) outside of their ace players in stork / jangbi. The limited rotations of the map pool means a map sniper can be sent almost every match. Best example is Khan vs Stars in round 2 where ace was brave vs shy, both map snipers on chain reaction, rather than sending Jangbi.
CJ (and to a lesser extent, SKT and Team 8) puts too much expectations on its players being able to play vs any match up on any map, they are sending players dependent on the score / momentum of the match rather than preparing them for specific map snipes. Nearly all of their players have played on every map / match up. When you consider this, CJ / SKT still has the "deeper" line up considering that they are still able to pull out wins vs map / race snipers; but Khan definitely has better coaching and decision making which is much more important in a pro-league (non winners league) format.
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Cool analysis there. For some reason I expected a poll, not sure why.
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Not surprised at all, Khan has KTs number and (minus the 0-3 recently) has been beating everyone. CJ doing terrible is really weird, especially with the Leta pickup and Effort coming back. I don't think anyone predicted CJ doing so poorly.
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Surprised at how bad CJ is doing because on paper they definitely look like one of the deepest teams, but their performance just doesnt reflect that.
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CJ is like a blind beast, rampaging on every corners. Potentially speaking, the amount of destruction that could be dealt by the beast is at a high force. But without knowing target's direction, its really a hit-or-miss for each match they play.
KHAN is the nimble owl, carefully stalking their prey while camouflaging with the darkness in making up for their lack of muscle. The bird takes extra time to analyze the playing field to determine the best angle to strike at the opposition. This risky mindset can also lead to fatal results of getting humiliated by solid teams. They just have to make sure that they don't get caught with their pants down.
Looks like we got some ying & yang thing going on here.
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Pretty interesting analysis, also would be interested to see it being applied to larger sample size later. I want to point out Ace is currently the "deepest" team however. + Show Spoiler +deeper and deeper... T_T
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On February 23 2012 10:45 Bagration wrote: Cool analysis there. For some reason I expected a poll, not sure why. thats interesting hahah
maybe it would've been a poll long , but then everyone had to explain there answers, but i don't think everyone would have written as in depth answers as this guy
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On February 23 2012 10:33 TheNessman wrote: i don't understand that graph ><
The short (and not precisely accurate) version:
The numbers I ran give a value for each player's record which can be thought of as approximating an "equivalent" undefeated record. Flash is the only one I included here whose 13 wins translate directly to a value of 13, because he hasn't lost. Contrast BeSt, whose 9 wins are offset by 7 losses... but those 9 wins really do matter, so he rates out around 5.
The orange "players" graphs represent the sum of all players' values on the given team. But the biggest problem is that my number just generates "0", no matter how many games you lose, until you win a game, and then no matter how bad you are you get a rating that's at least a little positive. In reality, the record of players like Grape (0-4) or HoeJJa's (2-5) have what's really a negative effect on the overall team record. So the team bar (blue) is shorter; how much shorter relatively indicates I'm not really sure what, but I offered some guesses. My current hypothesis is that the difference reflects how well teams manage whatever players they do have.
If you're still curious, PM me and I can give you a fuller rundown of what I'm calculating, why I think it's reasonably accurate, and what I think it "means".
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i wish violet was back T.T
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if you would have done the analysis when kt was on top, they would be the deepest team. stupid and biased post.
edit: second paragraph just reflects proleague results, too. non more and non less third paragraph makes me angry, since i have no clue wtf you talking about. so you are comparing "the number"? which number? 42? also the, graph, what does it mean? you could at least give us some hints so that non psychic ppl also can follow your thought, like naming the god-damn axes...
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I would imagine you should analyze number of players fielded in relation to the % shared regarding playtime, while also balancing it out with overall efficiency
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FREEAGLELAND26780 Posts
Always enjoy these threads, VGhost. Keep them up.
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You can say that we've got the deepest team, but I'm curious as to how our terran line holds up.
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I don't know if that really is a good measure of depth - having many players place in top 18 is not really a measure of that since having plenty of players with a decent ~50% winrate are what make a deep team. This just tells which has the best performing top players.
Take Khan for example, they're not deep because Stork, Turn, Jangbi and Brave perform so well. They're deep because they've still got Reality, Shine, Roro (+others still) to back them up.
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I'm inclined to think that it's not a coincidence the top four teams right now are the four teams with the four best players in the game
Very nice analysis but I just gotta pick on this
it's not a coincidence, there is a direct correlation between the top four teams and the four players with the best record in pro league. This is because the wins from a player help a team win.
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On February 26 2012 20:17 Heimatloser wrote: If you would have done the analysis when kt was on top, they would be the deepest team.
Possibly. They came in #2 anyway. On the other hand, Stars (#7 here) were solidly in 4th when this was written and have to be at least in 5th still despite some epic failures.
On February 26 2012 20:17 Heimatloser wrote: Second paragraph just reflects proleague results, too. non more and non less.
Yes, I mentioned that so that people could factor that into how seriously they were willing to take the results. Though what else are we supposed to go on right now?
On February 26 2012 20:17 Heimatloser wrote: ...I have no clue [what] you [are] talking about. So you are comparing "the number"? Which number? 42? Also the graph, what does it mean? You could at least give us some hints so that non psychic ppl also can follow your thought, like naming the [] axes...
The number in the initial 18 players I listed is a number generated by a calculation based on wins and games and is right there next to each player's name, with their stats. For the graph, I initially said, "...By comparing the number for the whole team to the numbers put up by each player..." so that the numbers on the graph are on that same scale of calculation. The orange bar is the sum of player values for each team, and the blue is the overall team value, as I explained here when someone else asked the same question.
On February 26 2012 20:32 Bill Murray wrote: I would imagine you should analyze number of players fielded in relation to the % shared regarding playtime, while also balancing it out with overall efficiency
I'm sure this would improve accuracy in calculating how well a team is managed, but I haven't the vaguest idea how to weight these things and am not sure I want to spend the time working it out. Most teams follow the same pattern anyway: 2-4 players who play almost every match, and then a bunch who rotate through based on maps, recent play, etc. There are sort of two extremes: ACE, and to a lesser extent KHAN and CJ, play almost everybody about equally; on the other end T8 (also Stars and SKT) play the same players pretty much all the time. STX and KT (except Flash) are sort of in the middle. But ACE still plays Kal almost every time and T8 still rotates Killer and Tyson: I called them "extremes" but I'm not sure that term is actually justified.
On February 27 2012 01:05 JohannesH wrote: I don't know if that really is a good measure of depth - having many players place in top 18 is not really a measure of that since having plenty of players with a decent ~50% winrate are what make a deep team. This just tells which has the best performing top players.
Take Khan for example, they're not deep because Stork, Turn, Jangbi and Brave perform so well. They're deep because they've still got Reality, Shine, Roro (+others still) to back them up.
Yes and no. A team - especially in a short match format like this season's Bo5, though not as much as in a strong man format like Winners League - can't really get by with a bunch of mediocre players. This year's example is, so far, STX. I take depth to mean, "How far down do you have good players?" and we can talk about comparative depth as answering a question like, "If we play my #4 against your #4, who wins?" If KHAN can send Brave up against Canata, for instance, it's bad for the team fielding Canata. Not that upsets don't happen, but in general. And of course the manager of a team is trying to manufacture matchups where Leta plays against Calm and not Shuttle, while Hydra plays Shuttle and not Bogus, and so forth, so we rarely test the "#4 vs #4" proposition - but it's still a big difference in the long run that CJ's number four is Movie and STX's is hyvaa.
On the other hand, a deep team is going to have more good players. When you have more good players not only do those players do well, they do better than they would do against "equal" competition because it's easier for a competent coach to set up more games where Stork's not playing ZerO and winning a tight game but playing Flying and winning without breaking a sweat - padding stats, as it were. The result is that going just off records (which I did here) the deeper team will put more players into the "top results" category.
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Khan has a special way to draft their team where they always secure 'free wins' by sending their decent players vs sniper, sniper vs Ace and Ace vs decent player.
The scale looks like this: Ace>Decent>sniper.
This mean that when they goes up vs KT, they will do their best to avoid jangbi or stork vs flash and use these to snipe decent players like stats instead. Mean while they keep sending out rookie to snipe other team ACE to : 1/promote rookie and give them stage exp. 2/Avoid spending good players on unavoidable loses or uncertain win.
This explain why their players are getting such good w/l record: they were drafted to win, not to 'claim' the win.
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From last years results, team 8 should've been a top contender
KT SKT Khan and CJ are definitely the top half of the teams no doubt.
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Here's the player/team performance per map (as of Feb 28).
Overall team performance per map: + Show Spoiler + Map Team Wins Losses W_vT L_vT W_vZ L_vZ W_vP L_vP Chain Reaction ACE 5 4 1 0 3 1 1 3 Chain Reaction CJ 6 4 1 0 3 1 2 3 Chain Reaction KHAN 6 4 0 0 3 2 3 2 Chain Reaction KT 6 5 0 1 3 0 3 4 Chain Reaction SKT 5 6 0 2 3 1 2 3 Chain Reaction Stars 3 8 0 1 2 2 1 5 Chain Reaction STX 4 7 1 0 2 4 1 3 Chain Reaction Team 8 7 4 0 1 3 1 4 2 Neo Chain Reaction ACE 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 Neo Chain Reaction CJ 0 3 0 0 0 1 0 2 Neo Chain Reaction KHAN 2 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 Neo Chain Reaction KT 1 2 0 0 0 1 1 1 Neo Chain Reaction SKT 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 Neo Chain Reaction Stars 2 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 Neo Chain Reaction STX 1 2 0 0 0 1 1 1 Neo Chain Reaction Team 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 Electric Circuit ACE 4 6 4 2 0 2 0 2 Electric Circuit CJ 2 8 1 3 0 3 1 2 Electric Circuit KHAN 2 8 1 0 0 6 1 2 Electric Circuit KT 7 2 2 0 4 2 1 0 Electric Circuit SKT 6 4 3 1 1 1 2 2 Electric Circuit Stars 9 2 2 0 4 0 3 2 Electric Circuit STX 5 4 4 3 0 1 1 0 Electric Circuit Team 8 4 5 2 2 2 2 0 1 Neo Electric Circuit ACE 0 2 0 2 0 0 0 0 Neo Electric Circuit CJ 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 1 Neo Electric Circuit KHAN 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 Neo Electric Circuit KT 3 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 Neo Electric Circuit SKT 3 1 0 0 2 0 1 1 Neo Electric Circuit Stars 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 1 Neo Electric Circuit STX 1 2 0 1 1 1 0 0 Neo Electric Circuit Team 8 2 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 Ground Zero ACE 6 3 0 1 4 0 2 2 Ground Zero CJ 6 4 5 3 0 1 1 0 Ground Zero KHAN 8 4 2 2 3 2 3 0 Ground Zero KT 4 7 0 5 2 0 2 2 Ground Zero SKT 5 6 2 4 3 1 0 1 Ground Zero Stars 7 7 1 4 2 0 4 3 Ground Zero STX 6 7 1 4 2 3 3 0 Ground Zero Team 8 5 9 5 3 0 2 0 4 Jade ACE 5 8 1 6 1 0 3 2 Jade CJ 7 4 4 2 2 0 1 2 Jade KHAN 8 4 4 2 1 1 3 1 Jade KT 5 6 2 3 0 0 3 3 Jade SKT 9 2 3 2 3 0 3 0 Jade Stars 3 10 2 5 0 1 1 4 Jade STX 6 8 3 2 0 1 3 5 Jade Team 8 5 6 1 1 2 1 2 4 Outlier ACE 1 10 0 0 0 6 1 4 Outlier CJ 7 4 0 1 6 1 1 2 Outlier KHAN 6 5 0 0 1 1 5 4 Outlier KT 8 2 1 0 2 2 5 0 Outlier SKT 6 6 0 0 3 1 3 5 Outlier Stars 4 7 0 1 2 5 2 1 Outlier STX 5 6 1 0 2 5 2 1 Outlier Team 8 6 3 1 0 3 1 2 2 Neo Outlier ACE 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 Neo Outlier CJ 2 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 Neo Outlier KHAN 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 Neo Outlier KT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Neo Outlier SKT 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 Neo Outlier Stars 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 Neo Outlier STX 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 Neo Outlier Team 8 1 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 Sniper Ridge ACE 5 7 3 3 1 2 1 2 Sniper Ridge CJ 6 5 2 2 2 1 2 2 Sniper Ridge KHAN 8 5 3 1 2 4 3 0 Sniper Ridge KT 8 4 3 4 3 0 2 0 Sniper Ridge SKT 5 7 2 4 1 2 2 1 Sniper Ridge Stars 10 6 4 4 3 0 3 2 Sniper Ridge STX 5 7 3 4 0 1 2 2 Sniper Ridge Team 8 2 8 1 1 1 4 0 3
Number of times players have been sent out on each map (for predicting future lineups) + Show Spoiler +
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What does this prove? that some teams are uneven? I'm a bit confused at to what this shows other than the fact that there are imbalances in the deepness of each team in each season.
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On February 29 2012 14:47 docvoc wrote: What does this prove? that some teams are uneven? I'm a bit confused at to what this shows other than the fact that there are imbalances in the deepness of each team in each season.
you can use it as a predictor for odds of winning when the format goes to bo7 in the post season
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i honestly believe samsung has the deepest team. they have a bunch of capable players, allowing them to be quite versatile with their lineup. however, january..
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Holy pants, moopie, nice work.
Ranking after this week:
1. Flash 13.07 (14-1) 2. Fantasy 10.29 (12-2) 3. Stork 7.56 (11-5) 3. Neo.G_Soulkey 7.56 (11-5) 5. Leta 6.75 (9-3) 6. Stats 6.67 (10-5) 7. Jaedong 6.25 (10-6) 8. Bisu 5.88 (10-7) 8. BeSt 5.88 (10-7) 10. Last 5.79 (9-5) 11. Crazy-Hydra 5.44 (7-2) 12. BaBy 4.92 (8-5) 13. EffOrt 4.57 (8-6) 14. Dear 4.50 (6-2) 15. TurN 4.17 (5-1) 16. Brave 4.00 (6-3)
And then I wasn't sure whether to include:
17. Hydra 3.77 (7-6) 17. JangBi 3.77 (7-6) 19. Calm 3.60 (6-4)
By team (all 19):
ACE: 0 WJN: 1 (#t3 Neo.G_Soulkey) T8: 2 (#7 Jaedong, #12 BaBy) STX: 3 (#10 Last, #14 Dear, #19 Calm) CJ: 3 (#5 Leta, #13 EffOrt, #t17 Hydra) SKT: 3 (#2 Fantasy, #t8 BeSt, #t8 Bisu) KT: 3 (#1 Flash, #6 Stats, #11 Crazy-Hydra) KHAN: 4 (#t3 Stork, #15 Brave, #16 TurN, #t16 JangBi)
Top 18 drops Calm out and would put STX behind T8. Top 16 (no question marks) drops Hydra and Jangbi as well: KHAN would move behind KT and SKT, and STX would again drop behind T8.
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On February 29 2012 15:05 a7choi wrote: i honestly believe samsung has the deepest team. they have a bunch of capable players, allowing them to be quite versatile with their lineup. however, january..
However January what? If you're going to say that she's a troll coach who holds the team back, people have been saying that for years and I think they are all wrong.
See, I don't actually think Khan is anywhere close to being the deepest team. SKT and CJ are both ahead by a country mile. Even Woongjin might be deeper. I think their line-up is incredibly underrated. For that matter, I'd consider Khan's line-up to be about on par with KT's, which is also badly underrated as everyone always insists they can't win without Flash, which isn't true this season (they have at least once this season won a match without Flash even playing).
Khan's key to success right now is that they are making very effective use of snipers. Even Jangbi and Stork are to some extent being used for sniping purposes (the two of them combined account for a combined total of 9 matches on Jade).
For comparison purposes, CJ's line-up of Effort, Hydra, Movie, Snow, Horang2, Leta, AND SkyHigh is just mind-boggling. 6 of those players have ELO peaked over 2200. That's absolutely ridiculous. The problem for CJ is that they somehow aren't functioning properly. I think what they are trying to do is spread their players out and rely on the talent of the line-up to secure wins, but the problem is that they aren't focusing their resources where they could make the biggest difference.
For SKT, Bisu and Fantasy are in theory the biggest 1-2 punch any roster has available BY FAR. The problem for SKT is a bit different than for CJ. SKT's problem is that Fantasy and Bisu never seem to be both on fire at the same time. If Bisu is hot, Fantasy is trolling. Recall for example last year when Fantasy slumped and then went into a period of inconsistency... and won OSL at the same time. If Fantasy is hot, Bisu is slumping. Even last year, if you take a look there was a period when Bisu had a bad run of something like 4 straight losses and this coincided to Fantasy's most part of the season. Furthermore, Best is just plain unreliable. You never know what you're going to get out of him. Which is a huge shame because he is so damn talented. If inside sources like Kingdom are to be believed, A LOT of Protoss metagame comes out of Best.
In a BO7 or a BO9 situation, I think Khan would be less successful. Right now Khan is able to use its long list of alternates with more effect than any other team in PL, but if the number of games are increased, then that means there are less options for sniping as there will be another spot that needs to be filled from the same number of prospective snipers.
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Netherlands45349 Posts
People make more fan of January because its a thing, however her picks for maps bar some(like that time they lost against Ace 3-0) have been core to Khan's #1 position in the rankings.
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Top Players (16) After This Week:
1. Flash 14.06 (15-1) 2. fantasy 10.29 (12-2) 3. Stork 8.47 (12-5) 4. Jaedong 7.12 (11-6) 4. Neo.G_SoulKey 7.12 (11-6) 6. Bisu 6.72 (11-7) 6. BeSt 6.72 (11-7) 8. Stats 6.25 (10-6) 9. Leta 6.23 (9-4) 10. Last 5.79 (9-5) 11. Crazy-Hydra 5.44 (7-2) 11. Dear 5.44 (7-2) 13. EffOrt 5.40 (9-6) 14. BaBy 4.57 (8-6) 15. Calm 4.45 (7-4) 16. TurN 4.17 (5-1)
Teams by top 16: ACE: 0 Stars: 1 (#t4 Neo.G_SoulKey) CJ: 2 (#9 Leta, #13 EffOrt) KHAN: 2 (#3 Stork, #16 TurN) T8: 2 (#t4 Jaedong, #14 BaBy) STX: 3 (#10 Last, #11 Dear, #15 Calm) KT: 3 (#1 Flash, #8 Stats, #11 Crazy-Hydra) SKT: 3 (#2 fantasy, #t6 Bisu, #t6 BeSt)
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The only reason why Khan has 3~4 players in the top 18 this season is because of the maps. Brave wouldn't be doing so good (6-3) if the old version of Chain Reaction was so good for Protoss. Turn is on his streak just like he did last year(then he failed badly). Stork normally doesn't have that good winning ratio(no offence, but he statistically loses more). Same goes with Jangbi. Also, most of the maps that are being used pretty much favor Protoss over Zerg. Just looking at the data at the moment is just so flawed. If you are going to do an analysis like this, do it for at least last 3 years. really? even the top 18 players have played about 12~13 games average. Do the same for the last 3 years and I am sure you can't say Khan is the deepest team due to number of players in the ranking.
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On March 08 2012 00:23 gutshot wrote: The only reason why Khan has 3~4 players in the top 18 this season is because of the maps. Brave wouldn't be doing so good (6-3) if the old version of Chain Reaction was so good for Protoss. Turn is on his streak just like he did last year(then he failed badly). Stork normally doesn't have that good winning ratio(no offence, but he statistically loses more). Same goes with Jangbi. Also, most of the maps that are being used pretty much favor Protoss over Zerg. Just looking at the data at the moment is just so flawed. If you are going to do an analysis like this, do it for at least last 3 years. really? even the top 18 players have played about 12~13 games average. Do the same for the last 3 years and I am sure you can't say Khan is the deepest team due to number of players in the ranking.
First of all, sure, maps. I'm sure the maps help. But they're not helping CJ's Protoss; Wooki and Sun are doing worse than projected; Shuttle hasn't won a game (not that he's been played much). I'm sure maps are a partial cause, but they're not a sufficient cause.
Second, TurN didn't "fail badly". He certainly opened on an unsustainable streak; but he was a rookie and finished with a winning record.
Third, Stork's 12-5 (70.6%) is only about a game or two away from his 60% career winning rate. If he had lost one of the games he won, 11-6 is 64.7%. If he loses the next one, he's at 66.7%. There's no significant difference from his career record - and it's impossible to discount the possibility he's playing better than his career average (whether absolutely or just because of no Starleague pressure). Let's start with the part where he's probably the player to come closest to beating Flash (excepting Dear, of course), essentially throwing away a miraculously evened-up game with poor late game planning (carriers) and worse micro.
Fourth, Jangbi is doing pretty badly compared to expectations. 7-8? Really? That's what we expect from the last OSL winner? Jangbi managed to lose to Piano early in the year.
Fifth, I'm not trying to look at the last three years - and if I wanted to, I don't know where I'd start. In the last three seasons, we've had three different formats for Proleague, and that's even without trying to account for Winners League the previous two seasons. Then start trying to work out the fallout of transfers and retirements (to take just one team, KT's seen fOrGG, Mind, Action, Crazy-Hydra, and Perfectman come in, fOrGG, 815, and Perfective leave) and disbandments. What I am doing is looking at this year's results so far. I'm sure if I wanted to put the effort in, and was really interested in projections forward, previous results would be informative; but this is really just a "state of the league" table, not a predictive effort.
Sixth, while I don't have the data for two years ago, I did collect it from last season. KHAN last season was one of two teams with 6 15-game winners (the other was SKT). And they added two more in RorO and Shine. Nobody else made acquisitions close to that good based on previous records: sHy's looking like a good pickup, and Perfectman was pretty decent last season, and that's about it. So if I did look at past years' records to construct a deepest team projection, KHAN would almost certainly be in the top three. (The other two would be SKT and, I think, CJ despite their poor showing this year.)
And seventh, I rest my case.
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On March 08 2012 01:11 VGhost wrote:Show nested quote +On March 08 2012 00:23 gutshot wrote: The only reason why Khan has 3~4 players in the top 18 this season is because of the maps. Brave wouldn't be doing so good (6-3) if the old version of Chain Reaction was so good for Protoss. Turn is on his streak just like he did last year(then he failed badly). Stork normally doesn't have that good winning ratio(no offence, but he statistically loses more). Same goes with Jangbi. Also, most of the maps that are being used pretty much favor Protoss over Zerg. Just looking at the data at the moment is just so flawed. If you are going to do an analysis like this, do it for at least last 3 years. really? even the top 18 players have played about 12~13 games average. Do the same for the last 3 years and I am sure you can't say Khan is the deepest team due to number of players in the ranking. First of all, sure, maps. I'm sure the maps help. But they're not helping CJ's Protoss; Wooki and Sun are doing worse than projected; Shuttle hasn't won a game (not that he's been played much). I'm sure maps are a partial cause, but they're not a sufficient cause. Second, TurN didn't "fail badly". He certainly opened on an unsustainable streak; but he was a rookie and finished with a winning record. Third, Stork's 12-5 (70.6%) is only about a game or two away from his 60% career winning rate. If he had lost one of the games he won, 11-6 is 64.7%. If he loses the next one, he's at 66.7%. There's no significant difference from his career record - and it's impossible to discount the possibility he's playing better than his career average (whether absolutely or just because of no Starleague pressure). Let's start with the part where he's probably the player to come closest to beating Flash (excepting Dear, of course), essentially throwing away a miraculously evened-up game with poor late game planning (carriers) and worse micro. Fourth, Jangbi is doing pretty badly compared to expectations. 7-8? Really? That's what we expect from the last OSL winner? Jangbi managed to lose to Piano early in the year. Fifth, I'm not trying to look at the last three years - and if I wanted to, I don't know where I'd start. In the last three seasons, we've had three different formats for Proleague, and that's even without trying to account for Winners League the previous two seasons. Then start trying to work out the fallout of transfers and retirements (to take just one team, KT's seen fOrGG, Mind, Action, Crazy-Hydra, and Perfectman come in, fOrGG, 815, and Perfective leave) and disbandments. What I am doing is looking at this year's results so far. I'm sure if I wanted to put the effort in, and was really interested in projections forward, previous results would be informative; but this is really just a "state of the league" table, not a predictive effort. Sixth, while I don't have the data for two years ago, I did collect it from last season. KHAN last season was one of two teams with 6 15-game winners (the other was SKT). And they added two more in RorO and Shine. Nobody else made acquisitions close to that good based on previous records: sHy's looking like a good pickup, and Perfectman was pretty decent last season, and that's about it. So if I did look at past years' records to construct a deepest team projection, KHAN would almost certainly be in the top three. (The other two would be SKT and, I think, CJ despite their poor showing this year.) And seventh, I rest my case.
I don't understand why you emphasize 15 game winners. If you were to look at 20 game winners, the number significantly decreases down to 2. Khan had the least number of 20 game winners and it's still the deepest team? and it's after all 6 rounds totaling up 54 matches.
I guess you made a typo with Shy*, does Shine really look like a good pickup for you? his 2011 year stats are 3-14. Sure he is looking like he is doing better recently winning games against Great, KaL, Free. Look up these guys and see how they are doing this season. (especially Great, His games have been so terrible this season I don't know if he even practices anymore)
all in all, Khan maybe the deepest protoss team(and I certainly think they are), but definitely not the deepest team.
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On March 08 2012 02:18 gutshot wrote:Show nested quote +On March 08 2012 01:11 VGhost wrote:On March 08 2012 00:23 gutshot wrote: The only reason why Khan has 3~4 players in the top 18 this season is because of the maps. Brave wouldn't be doing so good (6-3) if the old version of Chain Reaction was so good for Protoss. Turn is on his streak just like he did last year(then he failed badly). Stork normally doesn't have that good winning ratio(no offence, but he statistically loses more). Same goes with Jangbi. Also, most of the maps that are being used pretty much favor Protoss over Zerg. Just looking at the data at the moment is just so flawed. If you are going to do an analysis like this, do it for at least last 3 years. really? even the top 18 players have played about 12~13 games average. Do the same for the last 3 years and I am sure you can't say Khan is the deepest team due to number of players in the ranking. First of all, sure, maps. I'm sure the maps help. But they're not helping CJ's Protoss; Wooki and Sun are doing worse than projected; Shuttle hasn't won a game (not that he's been played much). I'm sure maps are a partial cause, but they're not a sufficient cause. Second, TurN didn't "fail badly". He certainly opened on an unsustainable streak; but he was a rookie and finished with a winning record. Third, Stork's 12-5 (70.6%) is only about a game or two away from his 60% career winning rate. If he had lost one of the games he won, 11-6 is 64.7%. If he loses the next one, he's at 66.7%. There's no significant difference from his career record - and it's impossible to discount the possibility he's playing better than his career average (whether absolutely or just because of no Starleague pressure). Let's start with the part where he's probably the player to come closest to beating Flash (excepting Dear, of course), essentially throwing away a miraculously evened-up game with poor late game planning (carriers) and worse micro. Fourth, Jangbi is doing pretty badly compared to expectations. 7-8? Really? That's what we expect from the last OSL winner? Jangbi managed to lose to Piano early in the year. Fifth, I'm not trying to look at the last three years - and if I wanted to, I don't know where I'd start. In the last three seasons, we've had three different formats for Proleague, and that's even without trying to account for Winners League the previous two seasons. Then start trying to work out the fallout of transfers and retirements (to take just one team, KT's seen fOrGG, Mind, Action, Crazy-Hydra, and Perfectman come in, fOrGG, 815, and Perfective leave) and disbandments. What I am doing is looking at this year's results so far. I'm sure if I wanted to put the effort in, and was really interested in projections forward, previous results would be informative; but this is really just a "state of the league" table, not a predictive effort. Sixth, while I don't have the data for two years ago, I did collect it from last season. KHAN last season was one of two teams with 6 15-game winners (the other was SKT). And they added two more in RorO and Shine. Nobody else made acquisitions close to that good based on previous records: sHy's looking like a good pickup, and Perfectman was pretty decent last season, and that's about it. So if I did look at past years' records to construct a deepest team projection, KHAN would almost certainly be in the top three. (The other two would be SKT and, I think, CJ despite their poor showing this year.) And seventh, I rest my case. I don't understand why you emphasize 15 game winners. If you were to look at 20 game winners, the number significantly decreases down to 2. Khan had the least number of 20 game winners and it's still the deepest team? and it's after all 6 rounds totaling up 54 matches. I guess you made a typo with Shy*, does Shine really look like a good pickup for you? his 2011 year stats are 3-14. Sure he is looking like he is doing better recently winning games against Great, KaL, Free. Look up these guys and see how they are doing this season. (especially Great, His games have been so terrible this season I don't know if he even practices anymore) all in all, Khan maybe the deepest protoss team(and I certainly think they are), but definitely not the deepest team.
I agree fundamentally with what you are saying, although the part about Shy was to show another team's good pickup, and I think Shine's a stronger player than you're giving him credit.
Otherwise I agree. Stork and Jangbi are indisputably the core of Khan's line-up. And just because Turn and Brave have much better looking stats than Jangbi does not mean that they are as good, nor does it mean they are as valuable. A player like Brave is able to secure his wins through dedicating himself to the sniper role. The majority of his games over the past year have been played on only 2 maps. Much easier to train for 2 maps than for 12, or however many we've had over a 12 month period. Khan works harder than any other team to secure the snipe, whether it be sniping a map or sniping a race.
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