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Based on the current (June 15, 2011) TLPD Brood War player rankings, analysis of current player performance can be made.
Zerg vs Protoss
![[image loading]](http://img41.imageshack.us/img41/8558/zvp2.png)
ZvP is notable for the incredibly sharp ELO rise on the protoss side among the first ranks. It appears that Bisu, Movie and Kal have that allows them to break the trend of Zerg superiority. Despite the widespread use of neo-Bisu build, the rest of the protoss ranks have for some reason not been able to utilize it enough to even the age old ZvP dominance, that is currently at zerg being 38.5 ELO points above protoss in the matchup.
Terran vs Protoss
![[image loading]](http://img84.imageshack.us/img84/3912/pvt2.png)
Similarly, Terran players Flash and Fantasy know something that others dont. Because they too break the trendline of Protoss players being 22 ELO points above Terran.
Zerg vs Terran
![[image loading]](http://img819.imageshack.us/img819/2604/zvt2.png)
In ZvT the 50 point ELO advantage Terran has over Zerg is stable over the entire range of players.
Mirror matchups
![[image loading]](http://img818.imageshack.us/img818/2033/mirror2.png)
The cliche of ZvZ being coin flip is perhaps currently not the case. As compared to TvT, it bears a similar ELO curve, at least among the middle and lower ranks. Striking however, is that PvP ELO has a noticably more steady, less angled curve, indicating more consistent performance among players. Perhaps PvP instead is more luck based, given the better performance by low rank players than that of other mirror matchups.
Unlike PvP and ZvZ , TvT however has a high peak at the first and second rank(Flash and Sea) similarly to the non-mirror matchups. It may be the case that due to the more strategic long-game nature of the matchup, there are more decisions to be made and hence more ability of talanted players to hedge off it, compared to ZvZ and PvP.
Conclusively it can be said that while over the entire array of players the classic balance of Z>P>T>Z still holds, at the top ranks the balance seems to be T>P>Z<T.
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I think this explains why Terran has most title. Protoss have failed to beat Terrans in big stage.
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How are the "ranks" determined?
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interesting stuff nice work
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On June 15 2011 10:09 xarthaz wrote:
Conclusively it can be said that while over the entire array of players the classic balance of Z>P>T>Z still holds, at the top ranks the balance seems to be T>P>Z<T.
This conclusion was inevitable given the way you went about your analysis because of Flash.
The interesting part of your post for me is Elo's support for T>Z>P>T outside of a couple top players.
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Wow, I think this really gives hope to the Protoss race. :p
However, it might be that Bisu just enjoys the death of zerg so much he plays better. Ever see the look on his face when multiple sunkens/hydras are exploding in a rain of red?
IMO, the outliers should be excluded. All the T records are held by one player because he is a great player. Bisu is known to have remarkable starsense against Z. I do see hope for Protoss, however because there are three of them that do well against zerg.
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Nice post! very easy to understand all the information in this form 
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On June 15 2011 12:23 Crunchums wrote:
The interesting part of your post for me is Elo's support for T>Z>P>T outside of a couple top players.
You are accurate but the observation isn't precise enough.
These ELO charts also reveal that the gap between PvT is the narrowest of the three match ups as it has been indicated in the past while ZvP is the the widest as past measurements indicated.
When it comes to analyzing the top tier looking at the record of championship games in OSL and MSL over a period of ten years provides some better insight than this ELO chart.
OSL(http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft/OnGameNet_Starleague_%28OSL%29#Medals_won_per_Player)
MSL(http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft/OnGameNet_Starleague_%28OSL%29#Medals_won_per_Player)
The general trend is supposed to be Z>>>P, P>T, T>>Z in professional play but when we get to the finals interesting trends emerge.
14 wins for Terrans and 6 wins for Zerg at the championship level
4 wins for Protoss and 7 wins for Terrans at the championship level
7 wins for Zerg and 3 wins for Protoss to determine who was number one.
Terrans were winning moreso in TvZ as expected but the majority of Zerg wins occurred after 2006 which suggest an adaptation has been occurring which bucks the trend of T>>Z
Zerg has been winning more than Protoss when they meet in the finals as expected. Sadly the majority of Protoss wins came before patch 1.08 which is a very troubling fact.
This fact is compounded by Protoss losing to Terrans more so than they were expected to be.
The power gap between T and P is the smallest of the three when looking at all pro-gamers but the gap isn't volatile like TvZ. Protoss is seriously under performing at the highest tier compared to their group performance.
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Protoss has always been a beginner's race and I believe that Protoss has the lowest ultimate potential of the three races due to lack of a powerful lategame. I've been able to almost predict who would win just by looking at the game runtime. Zergs usually win early or late game, and Protoss usually wins midgame due to lack of good late game special abilities. Plague and dark swarm absolutely make late game hell for both Terran and Protoss and Terran irridiate can slowly wear down a zerg. Compare this to the main protoss form of late game harassment, Psi storm drop which is expensive, requires a lot of micro, and has a higher failure rate.
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On June 15 2011 19:41 mutantmagnet wrote:Show nested quote +On June 15 2011 12:23 Crunchums wrote:
The interesting part of your post for me is Elo's support for T>Z>P>T outside of a couple top players. You are accurate but the observation isn't precise enough. These ELO charts also reveal that the gap between PvT is the narrowest of the three match ups as it has been indicated in the past while ZvP is the the widest as past measurements indicated.
You are precise but the observation isn't accurate.
TvZ gap (50points, was generally even wider before) is wider than ZvP gap (38.5, doesn't even hold at top)
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On June 15 2011 20:15 WaterTower wrote:
Protoss has always been a beginner's race and I believe that Protoss has the lowest ultimate potential of the three races due to lack of a powerful lategame. I've been able to almost predict who would win just by looking at the game runtime. Zergs usually win early or late game, and Protoss usually wins midgame due to lack of good late game special abilities. Plague and dark swarm absolutely make late game hell for both Terran and Protoss and Terran irridiate can slowly wear down a zerg. Compare this to the main protoss form of late game harassment, Psi storm drop which is expensive, requires a lot of micro, and has a higher failure rate.
I don't think that Protoss has the lowest ultimate potential.
Late game Protoss against zerg is really strong. Templar Archons Zealot and Reavers(With some goons sairs or D.A) And it takes alot to control this units. Upgraded reavers are also very strong against anything.It really takes a lot managing a late game army vs Zerg. Its just that Protoss nowadays are really under performing except Bisu.
+ Show Spoiler +Remember Stork vs Jaedong on Matchpoint and 50 minute PvZ Stork vs ggplay though I woudn't really consider Stork vs gg play epic
Edit: The only thing that made Protoss the easier race IMO is because of the Zealots and Dragoons. Its easier for newbies to build Zealot and Dragoons continually. And this two units are usually in the backbone of the Protoss army from mid to late game. And that is what makes Protoss easier for Newbies to understand.
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Cayman Islands24199 Posts
at the top ranks the balance seems to be F>P>Z<F.
corrected this typo
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On June 15 2011 20:15 WaterTower wrote:
Protoss has always been a beginner's race and I believe that Protoss has the lowest ultimate potential of the three races due to lack of a powerful lategame. I've been able to almost predict who would win just by looking at the game runtime. Zergs usually win early or late game, and Protoss usually wins midgame due to lack of good late game special abilities. Plague and dark swarm absolutely make late game hell for both Terran and Protoss and Terran irridiate can slowly wear down a zerg. Compare this to the main protoss form of late game harassment, Psi storm drop which is expensive, requires a lot of micro, and has a higher failure rate.
I think this is really true, but the main reason why protoss sucks late game is the complete and utter mobility advantage zerg has over protoss lategame. Crackling will annihalate a base faster than anything else in the game, and cannons are just utter crap once darkswarm comes into play. The main battle army of toss usually overrides that of a zerg, as templar/reaver/archon will utterly destroy ultra ling. However, protoss usually suffer lategame from a bad economy due to zerg harass, and never get to that awesome army. IMO make only plague and not darkswarm apply to cannons, and it'll be much more balanced.
As for TvP lategame, protoss are generally fine, i think thats much more balanced, especially as seen by the chart above.
Generally, toss>>>terran, but terran really does have the advantage when players reach their peak - if JD played terran im sure hed wipe the floor with flash. Even as a flash fan, JD's work ethic is simply rediculous.
On June 15 2011 23:28 oneofthem wrote:corrected this typo
yea duh, god has his own race of units hahaha
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On June 16 2011 00:19 [Azn]Nada wrote:Show nested quote +On June 15 2011 20:15 WaterTower wrote:
Protoss has always been a beginner's race and I believe that Protoss has the lowest ultimate potential of the three races due to lack of a powerful lategame. I've been able to almost predict who would win just by looking at the game runtime. Zergs usually win early or late game, and Protoss usually wins midgame due to lack of good late game special abilities. Plague and dark swarm absolutely make late game hell for both Terran and Protoss and Terran irridiate can slowly wear down a zerg. Compare this to the main protoss form of late game harassment, Psi storm drop which is expensive, requires a lot of micro, and has a higher failure rate. I think this is really true, but the main reason why protoss sucks late game is the complete and utter mobility advantage zerg has over protoss lategame. Crackling will annihalate a base faster than anything else in the game, and cannons are just utter crap once darkswarm comes into play. The main battle army of toss usually overrides that of a zerg, as templar/reaver/archon will utterly destroy ultra ling. However, protoss usually suffer lategame from a bad economy due to zerg harass, and never get to that awesome army. IMO make only plague and not darkswarm apply to cannons, and it'll be much more balanced haha
While Zerg is more mobile, reaver/cannon defense is fairly solid. Also, because P's late-game army of reaver/templar/archon is hugely gas-heavy, rebuilding Nexuses usually doesn't prove to be a problem...
As long as P makes it to late-game with an econ equivalent to the Zerg. (And of course that's true across all matchups, if you somehow stay in till late-game but your econ is noticeably worse, you lose.)
The other thing I've noticed is that P does better in general on maps with more closed-in, or at least constricted, centers - especially late-game. The "Protoss ball" is overpowering, and if it can control space and force the Zerg into drop-play (or at least smaller attacks) to attack econ (think HBR) then that can be specifically defended against and Zerg starves out. (I have a theory that P is better on 2-player maps, too, but I have nothing to back that up. Nothing.)
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On June 15 2011 19:41 mutantmagnet wrote:Show nested quote +On June 15 2011 12:23 Crunchums wrote:
The interesting part of your post for me is Elo's support for T>Z>P>T outside of a couple top players. You are accurate but the observation isn't precise enough. These ELO charts also reveal that the gap between PvT is the narrowest of the three match ups as it has been indicated in the past while ZvP is the the widest as past measurements indicated. The general trend is supposed to be Z>>>P, P>T, T>>Z in professional play
This definitely fits my intuition that protoss is the hardest race to play at the professional level. At the same time, a protoss with Bisu/Stork/Horang2's vZ/vT/vP would probably win a title eventually, so I don't think this is a problem. Some race has to be the hardest, and the difference difference in difficulty isn't so huge as to be worrying.
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I would suggest changing the x axis to read normalized rank, took a second to realize you had normalized it.
I'm pleasantly surprised that the P<Z<T<P holds pretty well and I'm really interested that ZvZ isn't more variable but I would advise people from drawing the conclusion that T does well at the high end due to racial balance, it is impossible to distinguish racial imbalance from more skill with so few data points.
I would be interested in seeing a more averaged version of this (or alternatively a .gif with these graphs over time).
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On June 16 2011 11:57 VGhost wrote:Show nested quote +On June 16 2011 00:19 [Azn]Nada wrote:On June 15 2011 20:15 WaterTower wrote:
Protoss has always been a beginner's race and I believe that Protoss has the lowest ultimate potential of the three races due to lack of a powerful lategame. I've been able to almost predict who would win just by looking at the game runtime. Zergs usually win early or late game, and Protoss usually wins midgame due to lack of good late game special abilities. Plague and dark swarm absolutely make late game hell for both Terran and Protoss and Terran irridiate can slowly wear down a zerg. Compare this to the main protoss form of late game harassment, Psi storm drop which is expensive, requires a lot of micro, and has a higher failure rate. I think this is really true, but the main reason why protoss sucks late game is the complete and utter mobility advantage zerg has over protoss lategame. Crackling will annihalate a base faster than anything else in the game, and cannons are just utter crap once darkswarm comes into play. The main battle army of toss usually overrides that of a zerg, as templar/reaver/archon will utterly destroy ultra ling. However, protoss usually suffer lategame from a bad economy due to zerg harass, and never get to that awesome army. IMO make only plague and not darkswarm apply to cannons, and it'll be much more balanced haha While Zerg is more mobile, reaver/cannon defense is fairly solid. Also, because P's late-game army of reaver/templar/archon is hugely gas-heavy, rebuilding Nexuses usually doesn't prove to be a problem... As long as P makes it to late-game with an econ equivalent to the Zerg. (And of course that's true across all matchups, if you somehow stay in till late-game but your econ is noticeably worse, you lose.) The other thing I've noticed is that P does better in general on maps with more closed-in, or at least constricted, centers - especially late-game. The "Protoss ball" is overpowering, and if it can control space and force the Zerg into drop-play (or at least smaller attacks) to attack econ (think HBR) then that can be specifically defended against and Zerg starves out. (I have a theory that P is better on 2-player maps, too, but I have nothing to back that up. Nothing.)
The protoss ball is not so much of a ball once plague comes out. Plague is arguably the best ability in the game, far better than storm or irridiate.
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On June 17 2011 02:38 WaterTower wrote:Show nested quote +On June 16 2011 11:57 VGhost wrote:On June 16 2011 00:19 [Azn]Nada wrote:On June 15 2011 20:15 WaterTower wrote:
Protoss has always been a beginner's race and I believe that Protoss has the lowest ultimate potential of the three races due to lack of a powerful lategame. I've been able to almost predict who would win just by looking at the game runtime. Zergs usually win early or late game, and Protoss usually wins midgame due to lack of good late game special abilities. Plague and dark swarm absolutely make late game hell for both Terran and Protoss and Terran irridiate can slowly wear down a zerg. Compare this to the main protoss form of late game harassment, Psi storm drop which is expensive, requires a lot of micro, and has a higher failure rate. I think this is really true, but the main reason why protoss sucks late game is the complete and utter mobility advantage zerg has over protoss lategame. Crackling will annihalate a base faster than anything else in the game, and cannons are just utter crap once darkswarm comes into play. The main battle army of toss usually overrides that of a zerg, as templar/reaver/archon will utterly destroy ultra ling. However, protoss usually suffer lategame from a bad economy due to zerg harass, and never get to that awesome army. IMO make only plague and not darkswarm apply to cannons, and it'll be much more balanced haha While Zerg is more mobile, reaver/cannon defense is fairly solid. Also, because P's late-game army of reaver/templar/archon is hugely gas-heavy, rebuilding Nexuses usually doesn't prove to be a problem... As long as P makes it to late-game with an econ equivalent to the Zerg. (And of course that's true across all matchups, if you somehow stay in till late-game but your econ is noticeably worse, you lose.) The other thing I've noticed is that P does better in general on maps with more closed-in, or at least constricted, centers - especially late-game. The "Protoss ball" is overpowering, and if it can control space and force the Zerg into drop-play (or at least smaller attacks) to attack econ (think HBR) then that can be specifically defended against and Zerg starves out. (I have a theory that P is better on 2-player maps, too, but I have nothing to back that up. Nothing.) The protoss ball is not so much of a ball once plague comes out. Plague is arguably the best ability in the game, far better than storm or irridiate.
Plague barely affects archons, templar are already fragile - I'd say its biggest impact is on reaver/shuttles and the zealot micro. Even so I think P retains the advantage with proper composition. Not insurmountable by a better player, but some advantage.
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It's unfair to just say P>T>Z>P...
Bisu(P) >Z
Flash(T) > Z,P
Jaedong(Z) > T
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EPT
