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Based on the current (June 15, 2011) TLPD Brood War player rankings, analysis of current player performance can be made.
Zerg vs Protoss
![[image loading]](http://img41.imageshack.us/img41/8558/zvp2.png)
ZvP is notable for the incredibly sharp ELO rise on the protoss side among the first ranks. It appears that Bisu, Movie and Kal have that allows them to break the trend of Zerg superiority. Despite the widespread use of neo-Bisu build, the rest of the protoss ranks have for some reason not been able to utilize it enough to even the age old ZvP dominance, that is currently at zerg being 38.5 ELO points above protoss in the matchup.
Terran vs Protoss
![[image loading]](http://img84.imageshack.us/img84/3912/pvt2.png)
Similarly, Terran players Flash and Fantasy know something that others dont. Because they too break the trendline of Protoss players being 22 ELO points above Terran.
Zerg vs Terran
![[image loading]](http://img819.imageshack.us/img819/2604/zvt2.png)
In ZvT the 50 point ELO advantage Terran has over Zerg is stable over the entire range of players.
Mirror matchups
![[image loading]](http://img818.imageshack.us/img818/2033/mirror2.png)
The cliche of ZvZ being coin flip is perhaps currently not the case. As compared to TvT, it bears a similar ELO curve, at least among the middle and lower ranks. Striking however, is that PvP ELO has a noticably more steady, less angled curve, indicating more consistent performance among players. Perhaps PvP instead is more luck based, given the better performance by low rank players than that of other mirror matchups.
Unlike PvP and ZvZ , TvT however has a high peak at the first and second rank(Flash and Sea) similarly to the non-mirror matchups. It may be the case that due to the more strategic long-game nature of the matchup, there are more decisions to be made and hence more ability of talanted players to hedge off it, compared to ZvZ and PvP.
Conclusively it can be said that while over the entire array of players the classic balance of Z>P>T>Z still holds, at the top ranks the balance seems to be T>P>Z<T.
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I think this explains why Terran has most title. Protoss have failed to beat Terrans in big stage.
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How are the "ranks" determined?
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interesting stuff nice work
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On June 15 2011 10:09 xarthaz wrote:
Conclusively it can be said that while over the entire array of players the classic balance of Z>P>T>Z still holds, at the top ranks the balance seems to be T>P>Z<T.
This conclusion was inevitable given the way you went about your analysis because of Flash.
The interesting part of your post for me is Elo's support for T>Z>P>T outside of a couple top players.
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Wow, I think this really gives hope to the Protoss race. :p
However, it might be that Bisu just enjoys the death of zerg so much he plays better. Ever see the look on his face when multiple sunkens/hydras are exploding in a rain of red?
IMO, the outliers should be excluded. All the T records are held by one player because he is a great player. Bisu is known to have remarkable starsense against Z. I do see hope for Protoss, however because there are three of them that do well against zerg.
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Nice post! very easy to understand all the information in this form 
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On June 15 2011 12:23 Crunchums wrote:
The interesting part of your post for me is Elo's support for T>Z>P>T outside of a couple top players.
You are accurate but the observation isn't precise enough.
These ELO charts also reveal that the gap between PvT is the narrowest of the three match ups as it has been indicated in the past while ZvP is the the widest as past measurements indicated.
When it comes to analyzing the top tier looking at the record of championship games in OSL and MSL over a period of ten years provides some better insight than this ELO chart.
OSL(http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft/OnGameNet_Starleague_%28OSL%29#Medals_won_per_Player)
MSL(http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft/OnGameNet_Starleague_%28OSL%29#Medals_won_per_Player)
The general trend is supposed to be Z>>>P, P>T, T>>Z in professional play but when we get to the finals interesting trends emerge.
14 wins for Terrans and 6 wins for Zerg at the championship level
4 wins for Protoss and 7 wins for Terrans at the championship level
7 wins for Zerg and 3 wins for Protoss to determine who was number one.
Terrans were winning moreso in TvZ as expected but the majority of Zerg wins occurred after 2006 which suggest an adaptation has been occurring which bucks the trend of T>>Z
Zerg has been winning more than Protoss when they meet in the finals as expected. Sadly the majority of Protoss wins came before patch 1.08 which is a very troubling fact.
This fact is compounded by Protoss losing to Terrans more so than they were expected to be.
The power gap between T and P is the smallest of the three when looking at all pro-gamers but the gap isn't volatile like TvZ. Protoss is seriously under performing at the highest tier compared to their group performance.
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Protoss has always been a beginner's race and I believe that Protoss has the lowest ultimate potential of the three races due to lack of a powerful lategame. I've been able to almost predict who would win just by looking at the game runtime. Zergs usually win early or late game, and Protoss usually wins midgame due to lack of good late game special abilities. Plague and dark swarm absolutely make late game hell for both Terran and Protoss and Terran irridiate can slowly wear down a zerg. Compare this to the main protoss form of late game harassment, Psi storm drop which is expensive, requires a lot of micro, and has a higher failure rate.
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On June 15 2011 19:41 mutantmagnet wrote:Show nested quote +On June 15 2011 12:23 Crunchums wrote:
The interesting part of your post for me is Elo's support for T>Z>P>T outside of a couple top players. You are accurate but the observation isn't precise enough. These ELO charts also reveal that the gap between PvT is the narrowest of the three match ups as it has been indicated in the past while ZvP is the the widest as past measurements indicated.
You are precise but the observation isn't accurate.
TvZ gap (50points, was generally even wider before) is wider than ZvP gap (38.5, doesn't even hold at top)
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On June 15 2011 20:15 WaterTower wrote:
Protoss has always been a beginner's race and I believe that Protoss has the lowest ultimate potential of the three races due to lack of a powerful lategame. I've been able to almost predict who would win just by looking at the game runtime. Zergs usually win early or late game, and Protoss usually wins midgame due to lack of good late game special abilities. Plague and dark swarm absolutely make late game hell for both Terran and Protoss and Terran irridiate can slowly wear down a zerg. Compare this to the main protoss form of late game harassment, Psi storm drop which is expensive, requires a lot of micro, and has a higher failure rate.
I don't think that Protoss has the lowest ultimate potential.
Late game Protoss against zerg is really strong. Templar Archons Zealot and Reavers(With some goons sairs or D.A) And it takes alot to control this units. Upgraded reavers are also very strong against anything.It really takes a lot managing a late game army vs Zerg. Its just that Protoss nowadays are really under performing except Bisu.
+ Show Spoiler +Remember Stork vs Jaedong on Matchpoint and 50 minute PvZ Stork vs ggplay though I woudn't really consider Stork vs gg play epic
Edit: The only thing that made Protoss the easier race IMO is because of the Zealots and Dragoons. Its easier for newbies to build Zealot and Dragoons continually. And this two units are usually in the backbone of the Protoss army from mid to late game. And that is what makes Protoss easier for Newbies to understand.
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Cayman Islands24199 Posts
at the top ranks the balance seems to be F>P>Z<F.
corrected this typo
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On June 15 2011 20:15 WaterTower wrote:
Protoss has always been a beginner's race and I believe that Protoss has the lowest ultimate potential of the three races due to lack of a powerful lategame. I've been able to almost predict who would win just by looking at the game runtime. Zergs usually win early or late game, and Protoss usually wins midgame due to lack of good late game special abilities. Plague and dark swarm absolutely make late game hell for both Terran and Protoss and Terran irridiate can slowly wear down a zerg. Compare this to the main protoss form of late game harassment, Psi storm drop which is expensive, requires a lot of micro, and has a higher failure rate.
I think this is really true, but the main reason why protoss sucks late game is the complete and utter mobility advantage zerg has over protoss lategame. Crackling will annihalate a base faster than anything else in the game, and cannons are just utter crap once darkswarm comes into play. The main battle army of toss usually overrides that of a zerg, as templar/reaver/archon will utterly destroy ultra ling. However, protoss usually suffer lategame from a bad economy due to zerg harass, and never get to that awesome army. IMO make only plague and not darkswarm apply to cannons, and it'll be much more balanced.
As for TvP lategame, protoss are generally fine, i think thats much more balanced, especially as seen by the chart above.
Generally, toss>>>terran, but terran really does have the advantage when players reach their peak - if JD played terran im sure hed wipe the floor with flash. Even as a flash fan, JD's work ethic is simply rediculous.
On June 15 2011 23:28 oneofthem wrote:corrected this typo
yea duh, god has his own race of units hahaha
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On June 16 2011 00:19 [Azn]Nada wrote:Show nested quote +On June 15 2011 20:15 WaterTower wrote:
Protoss has always been a beginner's race and I believe that Protoss has the lowest ultimate potential of the three races due to lack of a powerful lategame. I've been able to almost predict who would win just by looking at the game runtime. Zergs usually win early or late game, and Protoss usually wins midgame due to lack of good late game special abilities. Plague and dark swarm absolutely make late game hell for both Terran and Protoss and Terran irridiate can slowly wear down a zerg. Compare this to the main protoss form of late game harassment, Psi storm drop which is expensive, requires a lot of micro, and has a higher failure rate. I think this is really true, but the main reason why protoss sucks late game is the complete and utter mobility advantage zerg has over protoss lategame. Crackling will annihalate a base faster than anything else in the game, and cannons are just utter crap once darkswarm comes into play. The main battle army of toss usually overrides that of a zerg, as templar/reaver/archon will utterly destroy ultra ling. However, protoss usually suffer lategame from a bad economy due to zerg harass, and never get to that awesome army. IMO make only plague and not darkswarm apply to cannons, and it'll be much more balanced haha
While Zerg is more mobile, reaver/cannon defense is fairly solid. Also, because P's late-game army of reaver/templar/archon is hugely gas-heavy, rebuilding Nexuses usually doesn't prove to be a problem...
As long as P makes it to late-game with an econ equivalent to the Zerg. (And of course that's true across all matchups, if you somehow stay in till late-game but your econ is noticeably worse, you lose.)
The other thing I've noticed is that P does better in general on maps with more closed-in, or at least constricted, centers - especially late-game. The "Protoss ball" is overpowering, and if it can control space and force the Zerg into drop-play (or at least smaller attacks) to attack econ (think HBR) then that can be specifically defended against and Zerg starves out. (I have a theory that P is better on 2-player maps, too, but I have nothing to back that up. Nothing.)
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On June 15 2011 19:41 mutantmagnet wrote:Show nested quote +On June 15 2011 12:23 Crunchums wrote:
The interesting part of your post for me is Elo's support for T>Z>P>T outside of a couple top players. You are accurate but the observation isn't precise enough. These ELO charts also reveal that the gap between PvT is the narrowest of the three match ups as it has been indicated in the past while ZvP is the the widest as past measurements indicated. The general trend is supposed to be Z>>>P, P>T, T>>Z in professional play
This definitely fits my intuition that protoss is the hardest race to play at the professional level. At the same time, a protoss with Bisu/Stork/Horang2's vZ/vT/vP would probably win a title eventually, so I don't think this is a problem. Some race has to be the hardest, and the difference difference in difficulty isn't so huge as to be worrying.
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I would suggest changing the x axis to read normalized rank, took a second to realize you had normalized it.
I'm pleasantly surprised that the P<Z<T<P holds pretty well and I'm really interested that ZvZ isn't more variable but I would advise people from drawing the conclusion that T does well at the high end due to racial balance, it is impossible to distinguish racial imbalance from more skill with so few data points.
I would be interested in seeing a more averaged version of this (or alternatively a .gif with these graphs over time).
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On June 16 2011 11:57 VGhost wrote:Show nested quote +On June 16 2011 00:19 [Azn]Nada wrote:On June 15 2011 20:15 WaterTower wrote:
Protoss has always been a beginner's race and I believe that Protoss has the lowest ultimate potential of the three races due to lack of a powerful lategame. I've been able to almost predict who would win just by looking at the game runtime. Zergs usually win early or late game, and Protoss usually wins midgame due to lack of good late game special abilities. Plague and dark swarm absolutely make late game hell for both Terran and Protoss and Terran irridiate can slowly wear down a zerg. Compare this to the main protoss form of late game harassment, Psi storm drop which is expensive, requires a lot of micro, and has a higher failure rate. I think this is really true, but the main reason why protoss sucks late game is the complete and utter mobility advantage zerg has over protoss lategame. Crackling will annihalate a base faster than anything else in the game, and cannons are just utter crap once darkswarm comes into play. The main battle army of toss usually overrides that of a zerg, as templar/reaver/archon will utterly destroy ultra ling. However, protoss usually suffer lategame from a bad economy due to zerg harass, and never get to that awesome army. IMO make only plague and not darkswarm apply to cannons, and it'll be much more balanced haha While Zerg is more mobile, reaver/cannon defense is fairly solid. Also, because P's late-game army of reaver/templar/archon is hugely gas-heavy, rebuilding Nexuses usually doesn't prove to be a problem... As long as P makes it to late-game with an econ equivalent to the Zerg. (And of course that's true across all matchups, if you somehow stay in till late-game but your econ is noticeably worse, you lose.) The other thing I've noticed is that P does better in general on maps with more closed-in, or at least constricted, centers - especially late-game. The "Protoss ball" is overpowering, and if it can control space and force the Zerg into drop-play (or at least smaller attacks) to attack econ (think HBR) then that can be specifically defended against and Zerg starves out. (I have a theory that P is better on 2-player maps, too, but I have nothing to back that up. Nothing.)
The protoss ball is not so much of a ball once plague comes out. Plague is arguably the best ability in the game, far better than storm or irridiate.
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On June 17 2011 02:38 WaterTower wrote:Show nested quote +On June 16 2011 11:57 VGhost wrote:On June 16 2011 00:19 [Azn]Nada wrote:On June 15 2011 20:15 WaterTower wrote:
Protoss has always been a beginner's race and I believe that Protoss has the lowest ultimate potential of the three races due to lack of a powerful lategame. I've been able to almost predict who would win just by looking at the game runtime. Zergs usually win early or late game, and Protoss usually wins midgame due to lack of good late game special abilities. Plague and dark swarm absolutely make late game hell for both Terran and Protoss and Terran irridiate can slowly wear down a zerg. Compare this to the main protoss form of late game harassment, Psi storm drop which is expensive, requires a lot of micro, and has a higher failure rate. I think this is really true, but the main reason why protoss sucks late game is the complete and utter mobility advantage zerg has over protoss lategame. Crackling will annihalate a base faster than anything else in the game, and cannons are just utter crap once darkswarm comes into play. The main battle army of toss usually overrides that of a zerg, as templar/reaver/archon will utterly destroy ultra ling. However, protoss usually suffer lategame from a bad economy due to zerg harass, and never get to that awesome army. IMO make only plague and not darkswarm apply to cannons, and it'll be much more balanced haha While Zerg is more mobile, reaver/cannon defense is fairly solid. Also, because P's late-game army of reaver/templar/archon is hugely gas-heavy, rebuilding Nexuses usually doesn't prove to be a problem... As long as P makes it to late-game with an econ equivalent to the Zerg. (And of course that's true across all matchups, if you somehow stay in till late-game but your econ is noticeably worse, you lose.) The other thing I've noticed is that P does better in general on maps with more closed-in, or at least constricted, centers - especially late-game. The "Protoss ball" is overpowering, and if it can control space and force the Zerg into drop-play (or at least smaller attacks) to attack econ (think HBR) then that can be specifically defended against and Zerg starves out. (I have a theory that P is better on 2-player maps, too, but I have nothing to back that up. Nothing.) The protoss ball is not so much of a ball once plague comes out. Plague is arguably the best ability in the game, far better than storm or irridiate.
Plague barely affects archons, templar are already fragile - I'd say its biggest impact is on reaver/shuttles and the zealot micro. Even so I think P retains the advantage with proper composition. Not insurmountable by a better player, but some advantage.
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It's unfair to just say P>T>Z>P...
Bisu(P) >Z
Flash(T) > Z,P
Jaedong(Z) > T
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United Kingdom16710 Posts
Interesting... I expected ZvT to be closer than that. Thanks for the enlightening post!
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PvP has always been the true coinflip matchup. I don't know why ZvZ got that reputation.
PvP is basically the same thing as ZvZ, but longer and with more luck-based tech builds....
Otherwise, not too surprising, but an interesting way to present the data. TvZ really is the most imba matchup by far, haha. I feel like the Terran always has to fuck up somehow to lose a TvZ...
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On June 17 2011 03:16 Release wrote:
It's unfair to just say P>T>Z>P...
Bisu(P) >Z
Flash(T) > Z,P
Jaedong(Z) > T
Why do you think these 3 are so popular? Everyone likes heroes who buck the trend
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United States10230 Posts
if this is the case... T>P>Z<T, then how the hell does jaedong rape all? lol. that being said, there is one zerg bonjwa (jd technically is a half for me right now) and no toss... er... something seems to be wrong lol...
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T>P>Z<T- remove Flash, and this will be incredibly wrong.
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On June 17 2011 04:11 Huragius wrote:
T>P>Z<T- remove Flash, and this will be incredibly wrong.
Yes... remove Flash but not Jaedong or Bisu or Stork, that's a fair comparison.
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On June 17 2011 03:22 matjlav wrote:
PvP has always been the true coinflip matchup. I don't know why ZvZ got that reputation.
PvP is basically the same thing as ZvZ, but longer and with more luck-based tech builds....
Otherwise, not too surprising, but an interesting way to present the data. TvZ really is the most imba matchup by far, haha. I feel like the Terran always has to fuck up somehow to lose a TvZ...
This man speaks the truth.
In ZvZ, you can go for early expand or 9 pool speed rush but at the end of the day, you will STILL go for that Muta/Ling combo and comebacks are more likely.
With PvP, pffff, there are much more diversity and plus it all depends on that one battle (Huh, kinda like SC2 I guess lol).
Terran vs Terran is just who have better multitask.
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On June 17 2011 04:15 Severedevil wrote:Show nested quote +On June 17 2011 04:11 Huragius wrote:
T>P>Z<T- remove Flash, and this will be incredibly wrong. Yes... remove Flash but not Jaedong or Bisu or Stork, that's a fair comparison.
I don't think that by removing Jaedong/Bisu or Stork would change the results so drastically like by removing Flash.
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I feel like you are manipulating the data a little too much to come to the conclusion you did.
What if you took the top 30 players of each race, and compared #1 vs #1 vs #1, and #2 vs #2 vs #2? That would make a lot more sense to me. Or maybe that's what you did... I'm not really sure. If that's what you did it's truly surprising that there are no anomalies outside the #1 spot.
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If Terran vs Zerg is imba towards terran side and Zerg vs Protoss is imba towards Zerg side, than its the Zerg race broken, not terran you haters!
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United States10328 Posts
On June 18 2011 00:34 Chef wrote:
I feel like you are manipulating the data a little too much to come to the conclusion you did.
What if you took the top 30 players of each race, and compared #1 vs #1 vs #1, and #2 vs #2 vs #2? That would make a lot more sense to me. Or maybe that's what you did... I'm not really sure. If that's what you did it's truly surprising that there are no anomalies outside the #1 spot.
Yeah, I think that's what he did (compared #1 ZvT to #1 TvZ, etc.) Doesn't it show in the graph? 
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On June 17 2011 03:16 Release wrote:
It's unfair to just say P>T>Z>P...
Bisu(P) >Z
Flash(T) > Z,P
Jaedong(Z) > T
Oh no, you're talking about a general trend over dozens of pro gameers when THREE buck the trend? Oh, noes, you are unfair.
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On June 18 2011 00:53 ]343[ wrote:Show nested quote +On June 18 2011 00:34 Chef wrote:
I feel like you are manipulating the data a little too much to come to the conclusion you did.
What if you took the top 30 players of each race, and compared #1 vs #1 vs #1, and #2 vs #2 vs #2? That would make a lot more sense to me. Or maybe that's what you did... I'm not really sure. If that's what you did it's truly surprising that there are no anomalies outside the #1 spot. Yeah, I think that's what he did (compared #1 ZvT to #1 TvZ, etc.) Doesn't it show in the graph? Yes, that is correct. Or to be percise, the rankings are normalized, ie rank 30 terran compared to rank 34 protoss because there were more protoss players.
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United Kingdom1696 Posts
On June 17 2011 03:22 matjlav wrote:
PvP has always been the true coinflip matchup. I don't know why ZvZ got that reputation.
PvP is basically the same thing as ZvZ, but longer and with more luck-based tech builds....
Otherwise, not too surprising, but an interesting way to present the data. TvZ really is the most imba matchup by far, haha. I feel like the Terran always has to fuck up somehow to lose a TvZ...
If your statements on PvP are truly correct, explain why Horang2 is pushing above a 70% winrate against P. He can win almost every game. That can only be huge skill in the matchup, allowing him to be elevated above everyone else.
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Nice graphs, but can we get a raw dump of the data? I'd love to poke around.
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Another, somewhat controversial conclusion can be made from the mirror matchup graph. The race with the highest mirror matchup ELO is in aggregate, the best performing race in the game. This is because comparitively, that race has the best performance against iself, compared to the performance of other races against itself(ie, terrans high vT elo compared to zerg's vZ elo must mean that protoss and zerg have lower vT elo in aggregate, than terran and protoss do vZ, thus suggesting the aggregate superiority of T>Z). And as the data suggests, at the higher levels this race is terran, and at the lower ranks protoss is the best performing race in aggregate.
On June 21 2011 06:03 Caos2 wrote:
Nice graphs, but can we get a raw dump of the data? I'd love to poke around.
Its just TLPD advanced player chart copy-pasted into excel(+ excel auto sort function), i did basically nothing to it
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On June 24 2011 00:36 xarthaz wrote:
The race with the highest mirror matchup ELO is in aggregate, the best performing race in the game. This is because comparitively, that race has the best performance against iself, compared to the performance of other races against itself(ie, terrans high vT elo compared to zerg's vZ elo must mean that protoss and zerg have lower vT elo in aggregate, than terran and protoss do vZ, thus suggesting the aggregate superiority of T>Z).
I do not understand - are you saying that if TvT skill is higher than ZvZ skill in aggregate that means that Terrans are more skilled than Zergs, or are you saying something else?
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No, it meas that Protoss and Zerg vT elos are lower than Protoss and Terran vZ elos, meaning that vT matchups are in aggregate biased toward T more than vZ matchups are toward Z
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Well, the smoothness of the curves is surprising. It's not surprising if Flash is on the rise, and if JD slumps, but other Ts and other Zs?? And I have to conclude that the strength of the best in a race influences the strength of the other players. Flash "pulls" other terrans after him, and JD "pushes" other zergs down with him. Sounds far-fetched, but it's possible due to the competitive structure of the way players set their goals.
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On June 24 2011 00:45 Crunchums wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2011 00:36 xarthaz wrote:
The race with the highest mirror matchup ELO is in aggregate, the best performing race in the game. This is because comparitively, that race has the best performance against iself, compared to the performance of other races against itself(ie, terrans high vT elo compared to zerg's vZ elo must mean that protoss and zerg have lower vT elo in aggregate, than terran and protoss do vZ, thus suggesting the aggregate superiority of T>Z). I do not understand - are you saying that if TvT skill is higher than ZvZ skill in aggregate that means that Terrans are more skilled than Zergs, or are you saying something else?
Well, if the curve is smooth all the way across, then that matchup is less "skill based" - if the worst Terran's TVT ELO is really low, that means he loses a lot and if the best Terran's TvT ELO is really high, that means he wins a lot. If the best wins a lot and the worst loses a lot, then you can say this matchup is skill-based. On the other hand, the ZvZ and PvP ELO's are a bit smoother than TvT - the best doesn't win as much and the worst doesn't lose as much. This is why these two are considered more "coin flip" - skill level doesn't affect games won/lost as much as in TvT. The guy you are responding to either doesn't know what he's saying or doesn't know how to say it - his post is really unclear. This is kinda what I think he might have been wanting to say.
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On June 18 2011 00:34 Chef wrote:
I feel like you are manipulating the data a little too much to come to the conclusion you did.
What if you took the top 30 players of each race, and compared #1 vs #1 vs #1, and #2 vs #2 vs #2? That would make a lot more sense to me. Or maybe that's what you did... I'm not really sure. If that's what you did it's truly surprising that there are no anomalies outside the #1 spot.
That's kinda what he did. There are anomalies outside of the top spot - there are mostly 2-3, even 4 anomalies. Starcraft is kinda like rock, paper, scissors - Terran is supposed to beat Zerg (generally) and Zerg is supposed to beat Protoss and so forth. But what OP did was compare the AvB ELO of ranked players - the ranks increase (in a bad way) from left to right and each point compares the ELO's (Y coordinates) of equally ranked (X coordinates) players.
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On June 18 2011 00:07 Huragius wrote:Show nested quote +On June 17 2011 04:15 Severedevil wrote:On June 17 2011 04:11 Huragius wrote:
T>P>Z<T- remove Flash, and this will be incredibly wrong. Yes... remove Flash but not Jaedong or Bisu or Stork, that's a fair comparison. I don't think that by removing Jaedong/Bisu or Stork would change the results so drastically like by removing Flash.
Well, look at the TvZ chart. Remove the top T and the top Z (remove Flash and Jaedong) and the balance still holds. Look at the TvP chart. Remove Flash and Bisu/Stork, Fantasy still breaks the trend. As far as TvT, it doesn't really matter as Flash is Terran anyhow. You obviously didn't even look at the graphs before making that comment.
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What does the data look like if you remove Flash though? I mean, he seems to single handedly upset the entire thing xD
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United States17042 Posts
The interesting thing about this to me is that it describes the current balance with the current maps across the entire range of current players. If you could perform this analysis over time, I think that you would be able to determine eras, and determine if trends occured because of players, because of maps, or because of the metagame (or all three). This would tie in nicely with the analysis of TvZ during the savior era that was done some time ago, as well as allow you to have analysis of the map balance and effects during the six dragons era.
The reason that this analysis would match up well with those two eras and writeups is that you would find that savior dominated the rest of the zergs quite badly during his era, and none of his bonjwa-ness can be attributed to the era. Similarly, the 6 dragons era would show that the maps had a dominating effect on the results, and that the six dragons didn't necessarily need to do better or worse than they had historically (ELO wise) - just that the maps were that imbalanced.
Great collection of data for the current dominance of players though
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You can see what it looks like - see the highest ranked point on the blue line for any of the graphs? That's Flash. Pretend that isn't there, and you'll see what it looks like without him.
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what i find intriguing is that the data show zerg not really being in a dominant position elo-wise. on average, they get dominated harder in zvt than they dominate zvp. and still, excluding fantasy's bacchus 2010 win, it has been 2 and a half fucking years since any nonzerg not named flash won a starleague. in terms of starleague wins, zergs are the dominant race of the last few years. without flash, it would be even worse. he is the only one keeping zergs from taking title after title.
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On June 24 2011 00:59 xarthaz wrote:
No, it meas that Protoss and Zerg vT elos are lower than Protoss and Terran vZ elos, meaning that vT matchups are in aggregate biased toward T more than vZ matchups are toward Z
What happens if you remove Flash?
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Dunno.. one would have to calculate all the ELOs over again excluding all his matches (and jaedong & bisu in interests of balance i guess)
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I guess my point is that given the nature of the data it doesn't make sense to draw conclusions about the races themselves, but rather the players playing them? That sentence is poorly phrased but I am lazy
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On June 24 2011 03:55 Crunchums wrote:
I guess my point is that given the nature of the data it doesn't make sense to draw conclusions about the races themselves, but rather the players playing them? That sentence is poorly phrased but I am lazy
the fact that 4 of the 5 bonjwas are terran could be attributed to "luck", but random fluctuations in the quality of the playerbase between the races doesnt explain that there seem to be trends across all the playerbase.
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But the data doesn't even consider anything in the past - it's purely a snapshot of the current playerbase? And even if you did use historical data I don't think that tells you much about the races themselves given that if you were to send back a player from today they would probably absolutely dominate everyone, including the bonjwas? Furthermore, it is silly to only think of the "bonjwas" given that they are a somewhat arbitrarily selected group that totally ignores JD/Bisu/Stork and others.
Basically, you can make claims about stuff, but I don't know how you could ever hope to support those claims very well with the data used in the OP (or with any presently available data for that matter).
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It is merely a realist interpretation of the state of affairs of races. That there exist the premises of the game - the races, gameplay, maps. And the premises of the players - the human capabilities. And then the sample of players that is tested through korean proscene game statistics. As such, the answer describes what results are given this condition.
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Protoss needs help. When was the last time a freaking PROTOSS won a Starleague?! 3 Years?!?! Even throughout the history of proleague, there are no Protoss Bonjwas, and not enough protoss starleague champions. Zerg and Terran have far more than their share of titles. Some say that Protoss skill ceiling isn't as high as the other races because the nature of their units, while zerg and terran if microed "perfectly" like placing mines and siege tanks in the most perfect positions, then their potential is higher. Why do we not see more Protoss winning? Is it just random chance that we have a disproportionate win rates for the Protoss? By win rates I don't mean the overall winning ratio in regular matches, I'm talking about the results, such as the match for titles.
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On June 24 2011 07:13 Raz0r wrote:
Protoss needs help. When was the last time a freaking PROTOSS won a Starleague?! 3 Years?!?! Even throughout the history of proleague, there are no Protoss Bonjwas, and not enough protoss starleague champions. Zerg and Terran have far more than their share of titles. Some say that Protoss skill ceiling isn't as high as the other races because the nature of their units, while zerg and terran if microed "perfectly" like placing mines and siege tanks in the most perfect positions, then their potential is higher. Why do we not see more Protoss winning? Is it just random chance that we have a disproportionate win rates for the Protoss? By win rates I don't mean the overall winning ratio in regular matches, I'm talking about the results, such as the match for titles.
But wouldn't overall winning ratio be a more relevant statistic in determining how strong or weak a race is than titles? I mean there's not a built in weakness to Protoss that kicks in when it comes time to win individual leagues (just the Protoss players).
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On June 24 2011 07:13 Raz0r wrote:
Protoss needs help. When was the last time a freaking PROTOSS won a Starleague?! 3 Years?!?! Even throughout the history of proleague, there are no Protoss Bonjwas, and not enough protoss starleague champions. Zerg and Terran have far more than their share of titles. Some say that Protoss skill ceiling isn't as high as the other races because the nature of their units, while zerg and terran if microed "perfectly" like placing mines and siege tanks in the most perfect positions, then their potential is higher. Why do we not see more Protoss winning? Is it just random chance that we have a disproportionate win rates for the Protoss? By win rates I don't mean the overall winning ratio in regular matches, I'm talking about the results, such as the match for titles.
Bacchus 2010 was supposed to be Stork's for the taking. Playing at his peak on Protoss favored maps against only the second-best Terran (and previous Kong-liner), and having gone 16-2 vT for the six months prior. But as opposed to fantasy, he came under-prepared and apparently distraught from his break-up with his girlfriend, and he got shut out.
That's just how it goes. The excellent Protoss players like Stork and Bisu, mostly as individuals and not as a race, have their own personal problems in handling the pressures of the Starleagues. And all the other Protosses seem to be unable to reliably overcome the Zergs they must inevitably face.
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On June 24 2011 08:18 Bwenjarin Raffrack wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2011 07:13 Raz0r wrote:
Protoss needs help. When was the last time a freaking PROTOSS won a Starleague?! 3 Years?!?! Even throughout the history of proleague, there are no Protoss Bonjwas, and not enough protoss starleague champions. Zerg and Terran have far more than their share of titles. Some say that Protoss skill ceiling isn't as high as the other races because the nature of their units, while zerg and terran if microed "perfectly" like placing mines and siege tanks in the most perfect positions, then their potential is higher. Why do we not see more Protoss winning? Is it just random chance that we have a disproportionate win rates for the Protoss? By win rates I don't mean the overall winning ratio in regular matches, I'm talking about the results, such as the match for titles. Bacchus 2010 was supposed to be Stork's for the taking. Playing at his peak on Protoss favored maps against only the second-best Terran (and previous Kong-liner), and having gone 16-2 vT for the six months prior. But as opposed to fantasy, he came under-prepared and apparently distraught from his break-up with his girlfriend, and he got shut out. That's just how it goes. The excellent Protoss players like Stork and Bisu, mostly as individuals and not as a race, have their own personal problems in handling the pressures of the Starleagues. And all the other Protosses seem to be unable to reliably overcome the Zergs they must inevitably face.
is there a correlation between protoss users and people who seem to not handle the pressure during the starleague finals?
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On June 24 2011 13:30 Raz0r wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2011 08:18 Bwenjarin Raffrack wrote:On June 24 2011 07:13 Raz0r wrote:
Protoss needs help. When was the last time a freaking PROTOSS won a Starleague?! 3 Years?!?! Even throughout the history of proleague, there are no Protoss Bonjwas, and not enough protoss starleague champions. Zerg and Terran have far more than their share of titles. Some say that Protoss skill ceiling isn't as high as the other races because the nature of their units, while zerg and terran if microed "perfectly" like placing mines and siege tanks in the most perfect positions, then their potential is higher. Why do we not see more Protoss winning? Is it just random chance that we have a disproportionate win rates for the Protoss? By win rates I don't mean the overall winning ratio in regular matches, I'm talking about the results, such as the match for titles. Bacchus 2010 was supposed to be Stork's for the taking. Playing at his peak on Protoss favored maps against only the second-best Terran (and previous Kong-liner), and having gone 16-2 vT for the six months prior. But as opposed to fantasy, he came under-prepared and apparently distraught from his break-up with his girlfriend, and he got shut out. That's just how it goes. The excellent Protoss players like Stork and Bisu, mostly as individuals and not as a race, have their own personal problems in handling the pressures of the Starleagues. And all the other Protosses seem to be unable to reliably overcome the Zergs they must inevitably face. is there a correlation between protoss users and people who seem to not handle the pressure during the starleague finals?
well, a massive bunch of titles is distributed among a rather narrow selection of players. it could indeed be considered "bad luck" for protoss that one of the very best tosses ever, stork, is a notorious choker. some fewer epic fails from stork and toss could have 3 more titles. same goes for bisu and his notorious individual league crumbling. or what about yellow? the dude had like 1000000 silver medals. had he won half of his finals, zergs would be considered equally successful as terran over bw history.
all in all, bisu and stork are the only tosses out there during the last like ... 4-5 years who really have the potential to win starleagues - but they both just dont get their shit together when it comes to winning titles, each of them in his own way.
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On June 27 2011 09:12 Ermac wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2011 04:03 xarthaz wrote:On June 26 2011 23:35 Ermac wrote:I'll miss just about everything about Flash cause I'm deeply in love with him(no gayness yo!) The only positive side of a potential retirement would be that Flash would very probably be considered the greatest of all time period. He absolutely demolished Jaedong when it counted and matched NaDa's record at the age of 18(!!!!) amongst breaking and setting various other incredible records. It would suck for Jaedong though. No matter how many titles he'd win people would always say "yeah, cuz Flash wasn't around anymore" and he'd basically never be able to gain the upper hand in their rivalry ever again. It's hard enough as it is with JD having a clearly "weak" matchup atm. Furthermore there's Bisu. If he gets his shit together in individual leagues he'd probably be the favorite over Jaedong in a BoX. And now enough with the woulds and coulds. God Young Ho will recover, win many more titles and leave a trail of ash in his wake! All hail the God Child! + Show Spoiler +In all seriousness, get well soon Flash! <3 <3 <3 I'm worried about you... =( Again, ELO wise, he is not the greatest. Both Bisu and Jaedong have achieved higher ELO peaks in their niches, balanced to race ELO baseline. To be honest, he is excellent player with great achievements, but lets be realistic, there are facets in which other players have been better. Lol, you and your "relative ELO". Give me a break... On June 27 2011 09:49 L0thar wrote:
xarthaz:
This is Flash Appreciation Thread. Nobody here is interested in your questionable interpretation of Elo. You made your own thread about it and that's the appropriate place to discuss it further. Coming to an appreciation thread just to say "hey dudes, your favourite player is not that good as you think!" is pretty dick move. On June 27 2011 09:54 Like wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2011 09:49 L0thar wrote:
xarthaz:
This is Flash Appreciation Thread. Nobody here is interested in your questionable interpretation of Elo. You made your own thread about it and that's the appropriate place to discuss it further. Coming to an appreciation thread just to say "hey dudes, your favourite player is not that good as you think!" is pretty dick move. Thing is, he even was wrong in his statement. On June 27 2011 12:18 GolemMadness wrote:Show nested quote +You are partly correct. The error you are making is confusing player skill with final ELO. Yes, in the final choice of RORO flash would be more scary, which ELO describes perfectly. The use of comparing ELOs to average is to normalize results to race biases.
You see, matchup biases exist, it is a fact, implied by the very characterisitics that define the race. Because of that, direct comparison is erroneous. As such,the elimination of race bias through normalization is correct, as it achieves what it is supposed to achieve, comparable values that eliminate race bias.
This is tangential of course. But the reason i brought this point is to bring the flash fans up from the skies back to earth. As you see, Flash too is mortal, he is not best at everything, and vZ performance(Bisu all time highest in unbiased ELO) and vT performance(Jaedong all time highest in unbiased ELO) is the example of the point in question.
With all that in mind though, Cheers to flash and Lets hope for fast recovery and many excellent future games. For surely, at least in vP terms, he is the best player of all time. Nobody cares or agrees with you. Stop acting as though your opinion on "unbiased elo" is fact. On June 27 2011 12:23 Sypuku wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2011 12:18 GolemMadness wrote:+ Show Spoiler +You are partly correct. The error you are making is confusing player skill with final ELO. Yes, in the final choice of RORO flash would be more scary, which ELO describes perfectly. The use of comparing ELOs to average is to normalize results to race biases.
You see, matchup biases exist, it is a fact, implied by the very characterisitics that define the race. Because of that, direct comparison is erroneous. As such,the elimination of race bias through normalization is correct, as it achieves what it is supposed to achieve, comparable values that eliminate race bias.
This is tangential of course. But the reason i brought this point is to bring the flash fans up from the skies back to earth. As you see, Flash too is mortal, he is not best at everything, and vZ performance(Bisu all time highest in unbiased ELO) and vT performance(Jaedong all time highest in unbiased ELO) is the example of the point in question.
With all that in mind though, Cheers to flash and Lets hope for fast recovery and many excellent future games. For surely, at least in vP terms, he is the best player of all time. Nobody cares or agrees with you. Stop acting as though your opinion on "unbiased elo" is fact. He is just boring troll, trying to argue that 2x2=3 or 2x2=5 depending on race :-)
On June 27 2011 07:32 Holgerius wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2011 04:03 xarthaz wrote:On June 26 2011 23:35 Ermac wrote:I'll miss just about everything about Flash cause I'm deeply in love with him(no gayness yo!) The only positive side of a potential retirement would be that Flash would very probably be considered the greatest of all time period. He absolutely demolished Jaedong when it counted and matched NaDa's record at the age of 18(!!!!) amongst breaking and setting various other incredible records. It would suck for Jaedong though. No matter how many titles he'd win people would always say "yeah, cuz Flash wasn't around anymore" and he'd basically never be able to gain the upper hand in their rivalry ever again. It's hard enough as it is with JD having a clearly "weak" matchup atm. Furthermore there's Bisu. If he gets his shit together in individual leagues he'd probably be the favorite over Jaedong in a BoX. And now enough with the woulds and coulds. God Young Ho will recover, win many more titles and leave a trail of ash in his wake! All hail the God Child! + Show Spoiler +In all seriousness, get well soon Flash! <3 <3 <3 I'm worried about you... =( Again, ELO wise, he is not the greatest. Both Bisu and Jaedong have achieved higher ELO peaks in their niches, balanced to race ELO baseline. To be honest, he is excellent player with great achievements, but lets be realistic, there are facets in which other players have been better. Rofl, ELO is one thing where Flash absolutely destroys all competition. XD Don't even wanna think about Flash retiring. 
On June 27 2011 05:54 beachbeachy wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2011 04:03 xarthaz wrote:On June 26 2011 23:35 Ermac wrote:I'll miss just about everything about Flash cause I'm deeply in love with him(no gayness yo!) The only positive side of a potential retirement would be that Flash would very probably be considered the greatest of all time period. He absolutely demolished Jaedong when it counted and matched NaDa's record at the age of 18(!!!!) amongst breaking and setting various other incredible records. It would suck for Jaedong though. No matter how many titles he'd win people would always say "yeah, cuz Flash wasn't around anymore" and he'd basically never be able to gain the upper hand in their rivalry ever again. It's hard enough as it is with JD having a clearly "weak" matchup atm. Furthermore there's Bisu. If he gets his shit together in individual leagues he'd probably be the favorite over Jaedong in a BoX. And now enough with the woulds and coulds. God Young Ho will recover, win many more titles and leave a trail of ash in his wake! All hail the God Child! + Show Spoiler +In all seriousness, get well soon Flash! <3 <3 <3 I'm worried about you... =( Again, ELO wise, he is not the greatest. Both Bisu and Jaedong have achieved higher ELO peaks in their niches, balanced to race ELO baseline. To be honest, he is excellent player with great achievements, but lets be realistic, there are facets in which other players have been better. Flash holds every single ELO record.
On June 27 2011 06:13 Brainbag wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2011 04:03 xarthaz wrote:On June 26 2011 23:35 Ermac wrote:I'll miss just about everything about Flash cause I'm deeply in love with him(no gayness yo!) The only positive side of a potential retirement would be that Flash would very probably be considered the greatest of all time period. He absolutely demolished Jaedong when it counted and matched NaDa's record at the age of 18(!!!!) amongst breaking and setting various other incredible records. It would suck for Jaedong though. No matter how many titles he'd win people would always say "yeah, cuz Flash wasn't around anymore" and he'd basically never be able to gain the upper hand in their rivalry ever again. It's hard enough as it is with JD having a clearly "weak" matchup atm. Furthermore there's Bisu. If he gets his shit together in individual leagues he'd probably be the favorite over Jaedong in a BoX. And now enough with the woulds and coulds. God Young Ho will recover, win many more titles and leave a trail of ash in his wake! All hail the God Child! + Show Spoiler +In all seriousness, get well soon Flash! <3 <3 <3 I'm worried about you... =( Again, ELO wise, he is not the greatest. Both Bisu and Jaedong have achieved higher ELO peaks in their niches, balanced to race ELO baseline. To be honest, he is excellent player with great achievements, but lets be realistic, there are facets in which other players have been better. That can be said about every single player out there who has ever beaten flash. But as a jaedong fan, I must say this. Flash is the most consitent players out there, in terms of winning, and mechanics. He hits a small slump and a wrist injury, and you have come to say Flash is not the greatest ELO wise without proof of anything. Here is your ELO proof + Show Spoiler +And here is Flash's small slump. + Show Spoiler +Now look through all the games he has played, and against whom he has played, and tell me he isnt the most consistent player out there who plays the best already. On June 27 2011 05:12 Sypuku wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2011 04:03 xarthaz wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On June 26 2011 23:35 Ermac wrote:I'll miss just about everything about Flash cause I'm deeply in love with him(no gayness yo!) The only positive side of a potential retirement would be that Flash would very probably be considered the greatest of all time period. He absolutely demolished Jaedong when it counted and matched NaDa's record at the age of 18(!!!!) amongst breaking and setting various other incredible records. It would suck for Jaedong though. No matter how many titles he'd win people would always say "yeah, cuz Flash wasn't around anymore" and he'd basically never be able to gain the upper hand in their rivalry ever again. It's hard enough as it is with JD having a clearly "weak" matchup atm. Furthermore there's Bisu. If he gets his shit together in individual leagues he'd probably be the favorite over Jaedong in a BoX. And now enough with the woulds and coulds. God Young Ho will recover, win many more titles and leave a trail of ash in his wake! All hail the God Child! + Show Spoiler +In all seriousness, get well soon Flash! <3 <3 <3 I'm worried about you... =( Again, ELO wise, he is not the greatest. Both Bisu and Jaedong have achieved higher ELO peaks in their niches, balanced to race ELO baseline. To be honest, he is excellent player with great achievements, but lets be realistic, there are facets in which other players have been better. LOL. ALL Elo peaks belong to Flash. U just trolling? Or u want to say: Bisu is the better protoss than Flash and Jaedong is the better zerg than Flash? LOL. Yes it is true... But Flash is terran and he is the greatest player ever towering over everybody.
The latest criticisms of the concept of average race elo as a describer of matchup bias. Unfortunately they are unsubstantiated, and further elaboration is necessary to show their validity.
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On June 25 2011 08:23 Black Gun wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2011 13:30 Raz0r wrote:On June 24 2011 08:18 Bwenjarin Raffrack wrote:On June 24 2011 07:13 Raz0r wrote:
Protoss needs help. When was the last time a freaking PROTOSS won a Starleague?! 3 Years?!?! Even throughout the history of proleague, there are no Protoss Bonjwas, and not enough protoss starleague champions. Zerg and Terran have far more than their share of titles. Some say that Protoss skill ceiling isn't as high as the other races because the nature of their units, while zerg and terran if microed "perfectly" like placing mines and siege tanks in the most perfect positions, then their potential is higher. Why do we not see more Protoss winning? Is it just random chance that we have a disproportionate win rates for the Protoss? By win rates I don't mean the overall winning ratio in regular matches, I'm talking about the results, such as the match for titles. Bacchus 2010 was supposed to be Stork's for the taking. Playing at his peak on Protoss favored maps against only the second-best Terran (and previous Kong-liner), and having gone 16-2 vT for the six months prior. But as opposed to fantasy, he came under-prepared and apparently distraught from his break-up with his girlfriend, and he got shut out. That's just how it goes. The excellent Protoss players like Stork and Bisu, mostly as individuals and not as a race, have their own personal problems in handling the pressures of the Starleagues. And all the other Protosses seem to be unable to reliably overcome the Zergs they must inevitably face. is there a correlation between protoss users and people who seem to not handle the pressure during the starleague finals? well, a massive bunch of titles is distributed among a rather narrow selection of players. it could indeed be considered "bad luck" for protoss that one of the very best tosses ever, stork, is a notorious choker. some fewer epic fails from stork and toss could have 3 more titles. same goes for bisu and his notorious individual league crumbling. or what about yellow? the dude had like 1000000 silver medals. had he won half of his finals, zergs would be considered equally successful as terran over bw history. all in all, bisu and stork are the only tosses out there during the last like ... 4-5 years who really have the potential to win starleagues - but they both just dont get their shit together when it comes to winning titles, each of them in his own way.
During the era of the 6 dragons, there were a lot of protosses that were title contenders (6 to be exact).
Seriously though, Jangbi racked up a lot of silvers and was one of the best out there, and best was the favorite in any starleuage until he hit a zerg.
As for why protoss has no titles recently, I think it is twofold:
1) Protoss doesn't get the huge advantages that other races (mostly zerg) get from a bad map, or a shift in the strategy. Zerg has a lot of one-hit wonders with people like yarnc, calm, and maybe hydra (I think he has the best ZvZ, but I'm not sold on his other match ups yet, but he has plenty of time to prove me wrong) and even terran had some in casy, forgg, and mind. All of the protosses who won starleauges are some of the best to play the game with only one (maybe two depending on your idea of "the best") exception.
2) Flash and Jd are/were just better starcraft players that everyone else.
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On June 27 2011 12:26 xarthaz wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2011 09:12 Ermac wrote:On June 27 2011 04:03 xarthaz wrote:On June 26 2011 23:35 Ermac wrote:I'll miss just about everything about Flash cause I'm deeply in love with him(no gayness yo!) The only positive side of a potential retirement would be that Flash would very probably be considered the greatest of all time period. He absolutely demolished Jaedong when it counted and matched NaDa's record at the age of 18(!!!!) amongst breaking and setting various other incredible records. It would suck for Jaedong though. No matter how many titles he'd win people would always say "yeah, cuz Flash wasn't around anymore" and he'd basically never be able to gain the upper hand in their rivalry ever again. It's hard enough as it is with JD having a clearly "weak" matchup atm. Furthermore there's Bisu. If he gets his shit together in individual leagues he'd probably be the favorite over Jaedong in a BoX. And now enough with the woulds and coulds. God Young Ho will recover, win many more titles and leave a trail of ash in his wake! All hail the God Child! + Show Spoiler +In all seriousness, get well soon Flash! <3 <3 <3 I'm worried about you... =( Again, ELO wise, he is not the greatest. Both Bisu and Jaedong have achieved higher ELO peaks in their niches, balanced to race ELO baseline. To be honest, he is excellent player with great achievements, but lets be realistic, there are facets in which other players have been better. Lol, you and your "relative ELO". Give me a break... Show nested quote +On June 27 2011 09:49 L0thar wrote:
xarthaz:
This is Flash Appreciation Thread. Nobody here is interested in your questionable interpretation of Elo. You made your own thread about it and that's the appropriate place to discuss it further. Coming to an appreciation thread just to say "hey dudes, your favourite player is not that good as you think!" is pretty dick move. Show nested quote +On June 27 2011 09:54 Like wrote:On June 27 2011 09:49 L0thar wrote:
xarthaz:
This is Flash Appreciation Thread. Nobody here is interested in your questionable interpretation of Elo. You made your own thread about it and that's the appropriate place to discuss it further. Coming to an appreciation thread just to say "hey dudes, your favourite player is not that good as you think!" is pretty dick move. Thing is, he even was wrong in his statement. Show nested quote +On June 27 2011 12:18 GolemMadness wrote:You are partly correct. The error you are making is confusing player skill with final ELO. Yes, in the final choice of RORO flash would be more scary, which ELO describes perfectly. The use of comparing ELOs to average is to normalize results to race biases.
You see, matchup biases exist, it is a fact, implied by the very characterisitics that define the race. Because of that, direct comparison is erroneous. As such,the elimination of race bias through normalization is correct, as it achieves what it is supposed to achieve, comparable values that eliminate race bias.
This is tangential of course. But the reason i brought this point is to bring the flash fans up from the skies back to earth. As you see, Flash too is mortal, he is not best at everything, and vZ performance(Bisu all time highest in unbiased ELO) and vT performance(Jaedong all time highest in unbiased ELO) is the example of the point in question.
With all that in mind though, Cheers to flash and Lets hope for fast recovery and many excellent future games. For surely, at least in vP terms, he is the best player of all time. Nobody cares or agrees with you. Stop acting as though your opinion on "unbiased elo" is fact. Show nested quote +On June 27 2011 12:23 Sypuku wrote:On June 27 2011 12:18 GolemMadness wrote:+ Show Spoiler +You are partly correct. The error you are making is confusing player skill with final ELO. Yes, in the final choice of RORO flash would be more scary, which ELO describes perfectly. The use of comparing ELOs to average is to normalize results to race biases.
You see, matchup biases exist, it is a fact, implied by the very characterisitics that define the race. Because of that, direct comparison is erroneous. As such,the elimination of race bias through normalization is correct, as it achieves what it is supposed to achieve, comparable values that eliminate race bias.
This is tangential of course. But the reason i brought this point is to bring the flash fans up from the skies back to earth. As you see, Flash too is mortal, he is not best at everything, and vZ performance(Bisu all time highest in unbiased ELO) and vT performance(Jaedong all time highest in unbiased ELO) is the example of the point in question.
With all that in mind though, Cheers to flash and Lets hope for fast recovery and many excellent future games. For surely, at least in vP terms, he is the best player of all time. Nobody cares or agrees with you. Stop acting as though your opinion on "unbiased elo" is fact. He is just boring troll, trying to argue that 2x2=3 or 2x2=5 depending on race :-) Show nested quote +On June 27 2011 07:32 Holgerius wrote:On June 27 2011 04:03 xarthaz wrote:On June 26 2011 23:35 Ermac wrote:I'll miss just about everything about Flash cause I'm deeply in love with him(no gayness yo!) The only positive side of a potential retirement would be that Flash would very probably be considered the greatest of all time period. He absolutely demolished Jaedong when it counted and matched NaDa's record at the age of 18(!!!!) amongst breaking and setting various other incredible records. It would suck for Jaedong though. No matter how many titles he'd win people would always say "yeah, cuz Flash wasn't around anymore" and he'd basically never be able to gain the upper hand in their rivalry ever again. It's hard enough as it is with JD having a clearly "weak" matchup atm. Furthermore there's Bisu. If he gets his shit together in individual leagues he'd probably be the favorite over Jaedong in a BoX. And now enough with the woulds and coulds. God Young Ho will recover, win many more titles and leave a trail of ash in his wake! All hail the God Child! + Show Spoiler +In all seriousness, get well soon Flash! <3 <3 <3 I'm worried about you... =( Again, ELO wise, he is not the greatest. Both Bisu and Jaedong have achieved higher ELO peaks in their niches, balanced to race ELO baseline. To be honest, he is excellent player with great achievements, but lets be realistic, there are facets in which other players have been better. Rofl, ELO is one thing where Flash absolutely destroys all competition. XD Don't even wanna think about Flash retiring. Show nested quote +On June 27 2011 05:54 beachbeachy wrote:On June 27 2011 04:03 xarthaz wrote:On June 26 2011 23:35 Ermac wrote:I'll miss just about everything about Flash cause I'm deeply in love with him(no gayness yo!) The only positive side of a potential retirement would be that Flash would very probably be considered the greatest of all time period. He absolutely demolished Jaedong when it counted and matched NaDa's record at the age of 18(!!!!) amongst breaking and setting various other incredible records. It would suck for Jaedong though. No matter how many titles he'd win people would always say "yeah, cuz Flash wasn't around anymore" and he'd basically never be able to gain the upper hand in their rivalry ever again. It's hard enough as it is with JD having a clearly "weak" matchup atm. Furthermore there's Bisu. If he gets his shit together in individual leagues he'd probably be the favorite over Jaedong in a BoX. And now enough with the woulds and coulds. God Young Ho will recover, win many more titles and leave a trail of ash in his wake! All hail the God Child! + Show Spoiler +In all seriousness, get well soon Flash! <3 <3 <3 I'm worried about you... =( Again, ELO wise, he is not the greatest. Both Bisu and Jaedong have achieved higher ELO peaks in their niches, balanced to race ELO baseline. To be honest, he is excellent player with great achievements, but lets be realistic, there are facets in which other players have been better. Flash holds every single ELO record. Show nested quote +On June 27 2011 06:13 Brainbag wrote:On June 27 2011 04:03 xarthaz wrote:On June 26 2011 23:35 Ermac wrote:I'll miss just about everything about Flash cause I'm deeply in love with him(no gayness yo!) The only positive side of a potential retirement would be that Flash would very probably be considered the greatest of all time period. He absolutely demolished Jaedong when it counted and matched NaDa's record at the age of 18(!!!!) amongst breaking and setting various other incredible records. It would suck for Jaedong though. No matter how many titles he'd win people would always say "yeah, cuz Flash wasn't around anymore" and he'd basically never be able to gain the upper hand in their rivalry ever again. It's hard enough as it is with JD having a clearly "weak" matchup atm. Furthermore there's Bisu. If he gets his shit together in individual leagues he'd probably be the favorite over Jaedong in a BoX. And now enough with the woulds and coulds. God Young Ho will recover, win many more titles and leave a trail of ash in his wake! All hail the God Child! + Show Spoiler +In all seriousness, get well soon Flash! <3 <3 <3 I'm worried about you... =( Again, ELO wise, he is not the greatest. Both Bisu and Jaedong have achieved higher ELO peaks in their niches, balanced to race ELO baseline. To be honest, he is excellent player with great achievements, but lets be realistic, there are facets in which other players have been better. That can be said about every single player out there who has ever beaten flash. But as a jaedong fan, I must say this. Flash is the most consitent players out there, in terms of winning, and mechanics. He hits a small slump and a wrist injury, and you have come to say Flash is not the greatest ELO wise without proof of anything. Here is your ELO proof + Show Spoiler +And here is Flash's small slump. + Show Spoiler +Now look through all the games he has played, and against whom he has played, and tell me he isnt the most consistent player out there who plays the best already. Show nested quote +On June 27 2011 05:12 Sypuku wrote:On June 27 2011 04:03 xarthaz wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On June 26 2011 23:35 Ermac wrote:I'll miss just about everything about Flash cause I'm deeply in love with him(no gayness yo!) The only positive side of a potential retirement would be that Flash would very probably be considered the greatest of all time period. He absolutely demolished Jaedong when it counted and matched NaDa's record at the age of 18(!!!!) amongst breaking and setting various other incredible records. It would suck for Jaedong though. No matter how many titles he'd win people would always say "yeah, cuz Flash wasn't around anymore" and he'd basically never be able to gain the upper hand in their rivalry ever again. It's hard enough as it is with JD having a clearly "weak" matchup atm. Furthermore there's Bisu. If he gets his shit together in individual leagues he'd probably be the favorite over Jaedong in a BoX. And now enough with the woulds and coulds. God Young Ho will recover, win many more titles and leave a trail of ash in his wake! All hail the God Child! + Show Spoiler +In all seriousness, get well soon Flash! <3 <3 <3 I'm worried about you... =( Again, ELO wise, he is not the greatest. Both Bisu and Jaedong have achieved higher ELO peaks in their niches, balanced to race ELO baseline. To be honest, he is excellent player with great achievements, but lets be realistic, there are facets in which other players have been better. LOL. ALL Elo peaks belong to Flash. U just trolling? Or u want to say: Bisu is the better protoss than Flash and Jaedong is the better zerg than Flash? LOL. Yes it is true... But Flash is terran and he is the greatest player ever towering over everybody. The latest criticisms of the concept of average race elo as a describer of matchup bias. Unfortunately they are unsubstantiated, and further elaboration is necessary to show their validity.
You are the one trying to prove that "unbiased blah elo blah etc". Seriously, I've read all of your comments regarding the subject and you have a very interesting personal opinion, but no arguments at all to support it. You say it's biased, we ALL say it's not. Have you proven us wrong? nope.
You are the one who needs "criticize" our position. One could thing that the graphic in the first post is an argument, but not really. I mean, if Zerg defeated Terran more often, would that make Flash better or worse at TvZ? How? Would that affect his micro, macro, decision making or multitasking?
Please, I urge you to think about that before posting your next highly intellectual and polite comment.
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I think the biggest problem in your assessment of racial balance is that you take one instant in time, apply corrections and assume that they hold for all times past and future. Your initial post makes no mention of this really but this is essentially how you have applied it in every other thread you've visited. I think you would pretty much have to redo this for many different time periods (both in the past and in the future) to get a sense of how typical this dataset that you're working with is.
Further you would really have to readjust each player's peak with the dataset which corresponds to that time. Worse yet you introduce the possibility that a player's XvX peak is not truly a peak as now you have to consider how all of that player's racial peers are doing in XvX at that instant. For example it's quite possible that Bisu's vZ elo peak is not his true peak as there is a potential that at some point he was doing even better compared to the average PvZ ELO.
In short, interesting analysis but you cannot apply it to say that Flash's ELO peaks aren't the best.
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On June 27 2011 14:52 agarangu wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2011 12:26 xarthaz wrote:On June 27 2011 09:12 Ermac wrote:On June 27 2011 04:03 xarthaz wrote:On June 26 2011 23:35 Ermac wrote:I'll miss just about everything about Flash cause I'm deeply in love with him(no gayness yo!) The only positive side of a potential retirement would be that Flash would very probably be considered the greatest of all time period. He absolutely demolished Jaedong when it counted and matched NaDa's record at the age of 18(!!!!) amongst breaking and setting various other incredible records. It would suck for Jaedong though. No matter how many titles he'd win people would always say "yeah, cuz Flash wasn't around anymore" and he'd basically never be able to gain the upper hand in their rivalry ever again. It's hard enough as it is with JD having a clearly "weak" matchup atm. Furthermore there's Bisu. If he gets his shit together in individual leagues he'd probably be the favorite over Jaedong in a BoX. And now enough with the woulds and coulds. God Young Ho will recover, win many more titles and leave a trail of ash in his wake! All hail the God Child! + Show Spoiler +In all seriousness, get well soon Flash! <3 <3 <3 I'm worried about you... =( Again, ELO wise, he is not the greatest. Both Bisu and Jaedong have achieved higher ELO peaks in their niches, balanced to race ELO baseline. To be honest, he is excellent player with great achievements, but lets be realistic, there are facets in which other players have been better. Lol, you and your "relative ELO". Give me a break... On June 27 2011 09:49 L0thar wrote:
xarthaz:
This is Flash Appreciation Thread. Nobody here is interested in your questionable interpretation of Elo. You made your own thread about it and that's the appropriate place to discuss it further. Coming to an appreciation thread just to say "hey dudes, your favourite player is not that good as you think!" is pretty dick move. On June 27 2011 09:54 Like wrote:On June 27 2011 09:49 L0thar wrote:
xarthaz:
This is Flash Appreciation Thread. Nobody here is interested in your questionable interpretation of Elo. You made your own thread about it and that's the appropriate place to discuss it further. Coming to an appreciation thread just to say "hey dudes, your favourite player is not that good as you think!" is pretty dick move. Thing is, he even was wrong in his statement. On June 27 2011 12:18 GolemMadness wrote:You are partly correct. The error you are making is confusing player skill with final ELO. Yes, in the final choice of RORO flash would be more scary, which ELO describes perfectly. The use of comparing ELOs to average is to normalize results to race biases.
You see, matchup biases exist, it is a fact, implied by the very characterisitics that define the race. Because of that, direct comparison is erroneous. As such,the elimination of race bias through normalization is correct, as it achieves what it is supposed to achieve, comparable values that eliminate race bias.
This is tangential of course. But the reason i brought this point is to bring the flash fans up from the skies back to earth. As you see, Flash too is mortal, he is not best at everything, and vZ performance(Bisu all time highest in unbiased ELO) and vT performance(Jaedong all time highest in unbiased ELO) is the example of the point in question.
With all that in mind though, Cheers to flash and Lets hope for fast recovery and many excellent future games. For surely, at least in vP terms, he is the best player of all time. Nobody cares or agrees with you. Stop acting as though your opinion on "unbiased elo" is fact. On June 27 2011 12:23 Sypuku wrote:On June 27 2011 12:18 GolemMadness wrote:+ Show Spoiler +You are partly correct. The error you are making is confusing player skill with final ELO. Yes, in the final choice of RORO flash would be more scary, which ELO describes perfectly. The use of comparing ELOs to average is to normalize results to race biases.
You see, matchup biases exist, it is a fact, implied by the very characterisitics that define the race. Because of that, direct comparison is erroneous. As such,the elimination of race bias through normalization is correct, as it achieves what it is supposed to achieve, comparable values that eliminate race bias.
This is tangential of course. But the reason i brought this point is to bring the flash fans up from the skies back to earth. As you see, Flash too is mortal, he is not best at everything, and vZ performance(Bisu all time highest in unbiased ELO) and vT performance(Jaedong all time highest in unbiased ELO) is the example of the point in question.
With all that in mind though, Cheers to flash and Lets hope for fast recovery and many excellent future games. For surely, at least in vP terms, he is the best player of all time. Nobody cares or agrees with you. Stop acting as though your opinion on "unbiased elo" is fact. He is just boring troll, trying to argue that 2x2=3 or 2x2=5 depending on race :-) On June 27 2011 07:32 Holgerius wrote:On June 27 2011 04:03 xarthaz wrote:On June 26 2011 23:35 Ermac wrote:I'll miss just about everything about Flash cause I'm deeply in love with him(no gayness yo!) The only positive side of a potential retirement would be that Flash would very probably be considered the greatest of all time period. He absolutely demolished Jaedong when it counted and matched NaDa's record at the age of 18(!!!!) amongst breaking and setting various other incredible records. It would suck for Jaedong though. No matter how many titles he'd win people would always say "yeah, cuz Flash wasn't around anymore" and he'd basically never be able to gain the upper hand in their rivalry ever again. It's hard enough as it is with JD having a clearly "weak" matchup atm. Furthermore there's Bisu. If he gets his shit together in individual leagues he'd probably be the favorite over Jaedong in a BoX. And now enough with the woulds and coulds. God Young Ho will recover, win many more titles and leave a trail of ash in his wake! All hail the God Child! + Show Spoiler +In all seriousness, get well soon Flash! <3 <3 <3 I'm worried about you... =( Again, ELO wise, he is not the greatest. Both Bisu and Jaedong have achieved higher ELO peaks in their niches, balanced to race ELO baseline. To be honest, he is excellent player with great achievements, but lets be realistic, there are facets in which other players have been better. Rofl, ELO is one thing where Flash absolutely destroys all competition. XD Don't even wanna think about Flash retiring. On June 27 2011 05:54 beachbeachy wrote:On June 27 2011 04:03 xarthaz wrote:On June 26 2011 23:35 Ermac wrote:I'll miss just about everything about Flash cause I'm deeply in love with him(no gayness yo!) The only positive side of a potential retirement would be that Flash would very probably be considered the greatest of all time period. He absolutely demolished Jaedong when it counted and matched NaDa's record at the age of 18(!!!!) amongst breaking and setting various other incredible records. It would suck for Jaedong though. No matter how many titles he'd win people would always say "yeah, cuz Flash wasn't around anymore" and he'd basically never be able to gain the upper hand in their rivalry ever again. It's hard enough as it is with JD having a clearly "weak" matchup atm. Furthermore there's Bisu. If he gets his shit together in individual leagues he'd probably be the favorite over Jaedong in a BoX. And now enough with the woulds and coulds. God Young Ho will recover, win many more titles and leave a trail of ash in his wake! All hail the God Child! + Show Spoiler +In all seriousness, get well soon Flash! <3 <3 <3 I'm worried about you... =( Again, ELO wise, he is not the greatest. Both Bisu and Jaedong have achieved higher ELO peaks in their niches, balanced to race ELO baseline. To be honest, he is excellent player with great achievements, but lets be realistic, there are facets in which other players have been better. Flash holds every single ELO record. On June 27 2011 06:13 Brainbag wrote:On June 27 2011 04:03 xarthaz wrote:On June 26 2011 23:35 Ermac wrote:I'll miss just about everything about Flash cause I'm deeply in love with him(no gayness yo!) The only positive side of a potential retirement would be that Flash would very probably be considered the greatest of all time period. He absolutely demolished Jaedong when it counted and matched NaDa's record at the age of 18(!!!!) amongst breaking and setting various other incredible records. It would suck for Jaedong though. No matter how many titles he'd win people would always say "yeah, cuz Flash wasn't around anymore" and he'd basically never be able to gain the upper hand in their rivalry ever again. It's hard enough as it is with JD having a clearly "weak" matchup atm. Furthermore there's Bisu. If he gets his shit together in individual leagues he'd probably be the favorite over Jaedong in a BoX. And now enough with the woulds and coulds. God Young Ho will recover, win many more titles and leave a trail of ash in his wake! All hail the God Child! + Show Spoiler +In all seriousness, get well soon Flash! <3 <3 <3 I'm worried about you... =( Again, ELO wise, he is not the greatest. Both Bisu and Jaedong have achieved higher ELO peaks in their niches, balanced to race ELO baseline. To be honest, he is excellent player with great achievements, but lets be realistic, there are facets in which other players have been better. That can be said about every single player out there who has ever beaten flash. But as a jaedong fan, I must say this. Flash is the most consitent players out there, in terms of winning, and mechanics. He hits a small slump and a wrist injury, and you have come to say Flash is not the greatest ELO wise without proof of anything. Here is your ELO proof + Show Spoiler +And here is Flash's small slump. + Show Spoiler +Now look through all the games he has played, and against whom he has played, and tell me he isnt the most consistent player out there who plays the best already. On June 27 2011 05:12 Sypuku wrote:On June 27 2011 04:03 xarthaz wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On June 26 2011 23:35 Ermac wrote:I'll miss just about everything about Flash cause I'm deeply in love with him(no gayness yo!) The only positive side of a potential retirement would be that Flash would very probably be considered the greatest of all time period. He absolutely demolished Jaedong when it counted and matched NaDa's record at the age of 18(!!!!) amongst breaking and setting various other incredible records. It would suck for Jaedong though. No matter how many titles he'd win people would always say "yeah, cuz Flash wasn't around anymore" and he'd basically never be able to gain the upper hand in their rivalry ever again. It's hard enough as it is with JD having a clearly "weak" matchup atm. Furthermore there's Bisu. If he gets his shit together in individual leagues he'd probably be the favorite over Jaedong in a BoX. And now enough with the woulds and coulds. God Young Ho will recover, win many more titles and leave a trail of ash in his wake! All hail the God Child! + Show Spoiler +In all seriousness, get well soon Flash! <3 <3 <3 I'm worried about you... =( Again, ELO wise, he is not the greatest. Both Bisu and Jaedong have achieved higher ELO peaks in their niches, balanced to race ELO baseline. To be honest, he is excellent player with great achievements, but lets be realistic, there are facets in which other players have been better. LOL. ALL Elo peaks belong to Flash. U just trolling? Or u want to say: Bisu is the better protoss than Flash and Jaedong is the better zerg than Flash? LOL. Yes it is true... But Flash is terran and he is the greatest player ever towering over everybody. The latest criticisms of the concept of average race elo as a describer of matchup bias. Unfortunately they are unsubstantiated, and further elaboration is necessary to show their validity. You are the one trying to prove that "unbiased blah elo blah etc". Seriously, I've read all of your comments regarding the subject and you have a very interesting personal opinion, but no arguments at all to support it. You say it's biased, we ALL say it's not. Have you proven us wrong? nope. You are the one who needs "criticize" our position. One could thing that the graphic in the first post is an argument, but not really. I mean, if Zerg defeated Terran more often, would that make Flash better or worse at TvZ? How? Would that affect his micro, macro, decision making or multitasking? Please, I urge you to think about that before posting your next highly intellectual and polite comment.
The bias is the asymmetry in matchup results. You see,matchup being uneven in results implies it being uneven in conditions that lead to results. Assuming equal player base and information asymmetries between races(reasonable assumption, given races all having 30+ active players), there is no other option than matchup bias being the cause of the result asymmetries. As such, the result comparison between races, without accounting for bias, must necessarily be incorrect. This is the premise of the study of matchup biases. And given the conditions i presented, it is necessarily true.
Revy> yeah i was thinking about the same thing in bed yesterday and kinda agree - the reason i applied the same bias coefficients in assesment of flash elo peaks was appeal to tradition - given the long standing folk acceptance of the balance
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I just don't think you can say things like 'T is overpowered' when one single player is the only thing making it seem overpowered.
If Flash didn't exist, then by all indications these past few years would have been a Zerg era.
The mirror matchup graphs are interesting though, having a skill-based mirror definitely is good for producing bonjwas, which may explain why so many were Terran.
Edit: But now that I look at it again, the TvT graph looks just like the ZvZ and PvP graph if you remove Flash...
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On June 28 2011 10:36 xarthaz wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2011 14:52 agarangu wrote:On June 27 2011 12:26 xarthaz wrote:On June 27 2011 09:12 Ermac wrote:On June 27 2011 04:03 xarthaz wrote:On June 26 2011 23:35 Ermac wrote:I'll miss just about everything about Flash cause I'm deeply in love with him(no gayness yo!) The only positive side of a potential retirement would be that Flash would very probably be considered the greatest of all time period. He absolutely demolished Jaedong when it counted and matched NaDa's record at the age of 18(!!!!) amongst breaking and setting various other incredible records. It would suck for Jaedong though. No matter how many titles he'd win people would always say "yeah, cuz Flash wasn't around anymore" and he'd basically never be able to gain the upper hand in their rivalry ever again. It's hard enough as it is with JD having a clearly "weak" matchup atm. Furthermore there's Bisu. If he gets his shit together in individual leagues he'd probably be the favorite over Jaedong in a BoX. And now enough with the woulds and coulds. God Young Ho will recover, win many more titles and leave a trail of ash in his wake! All hail the God Child! + Show Spoiler +In all seriousness, get well soon Flash! <3 <3 <3 I'm worried about you... =( Again, ELO wise, he is not the greatest. Both Bisu and Jaedong have achieved higher ELO peaks in their niches, balanced to race ELO baseline. To be honest, he is excellent player with great achievements, but lets be realistic, there are facets in which other players have been better. Lol, you and your "relative ELO". Give me a break... On June 27 2011 09:49 L0thar wrote:
xarthaz:
This is Flash Appreciation Thread. Nobody here is interested in your questionable interpretation of Elo. You made your own thread about it and that's the appropriate place to discuss it further. Coming to an appreciation thread just to say "hey dudes, your favourite player is not that good as you think!" is pretty dick move. On June 27 2011 09:54 Like wrote:On June 27 2011 09:49 L0thar wrote:
xarthaz:
This is Flash Appreciation Thread. Nobody here is interested in your questionable interpretation of Elo. You made your own thread about it and that's the appropriate place to discuss it further. Coming to an appreciation thread just to say "hey dudes, your favourite player is not that good as you think!" is pretty dick move. Thing is, he even was wrong in his statement. On June 27 2011 12:18 GolemMadness wrote:You are partly correct. The error you are making is confusing player skill with final ELO. Yes, in the final choice of RORO flash would be more scary, which ELO describes perfectly. The use of comparing ELOs to average is to normalize results to race biases.
You see, matchup biases exist, it is a fact, implied by the very characterisitics that define the race. Because of that, direct comparison is erroneous. As such,the elimination of race bias through normalization is correct, as it achieves what it is supposed to achieve, comparable values that eliminate race bias.
This is tangential of course. But the reason i brought this point is to bring the flash fans up from the skies back to earth. As you see, Flash too is mortal, he is not best at everything, and vZ performance(Bisu all time highest in unbiased ELO) and vT performance(Jaedong all time highest in unbiased ELO) is the example of the point in question.
With all that in mind though, Cheers to flash and Lets hope for fast recovery and many excellent future games. For surely, at least in vP terms, he is the best player of all time. Nobody cares or agrees with you. Stop acting as though your opinion on "unbiased elo" is fact. On June 27 2011 12:23 Sypuku wrote:On June 27 2011 12:18 GolemMadness wrote:+ Show Spoiler +You are partly correct. The error you are making is confusing player skill with final ELO. Yes, in the final choice of RORO flash would be more scary, which ELO describes perfectly. The use of comparing ELOs to average is to normalize results to race biases.
You see, matchup biases exist, it is a fact, implied by the very characterisitics that define the race. Because of that, direct comparison is erroneous. As such,the elimination of race bias through normalization is correct, as it achieves what it is supposed to achieve, comparable values that eliminate race bias.
This is tangential of course. But the reason i brought this point is to bring the flash fans up from the skies back to earth. As you see, Flash too is mortal, he is not best at everything, and vZ performance(Bisu all time highest in unbiased ELO) and vT performance(Jaedong all time highest in unbiased ELO) is the example of the point in question.
With all that in mind though, Cheers to flash and Lets hope for fast recovery and many excellent future games. For surely, at least in vP terms, he is the best player of all time. Nobody cares or agrees with you. Stop acting as though your opinion on "unbiased elo" is fact. He is just boring troll, trying to argue that 2x2=3 or 2x2=5 depending on race :-) On June 27 2011 07:32 Holgerius wrote:On June 27 2011 04:03 xarthaz wrote:On June 26 2011 23:35 Ermac wrote:I'll miss just about everything about Flash cause I'm deeply in love with him(no gayness yo!) The only positive side of a potential retirement would be that Flash would very probably be considered the greatest of all time period. He absolutely demolished Jaedong when it counted and matched NaDa's record at the age of 18(!!!!) amongst breaking and setting various other incredible records. It would suck for Jaedong though. No matter how many titles he'd win people would always say "yeah, cuz Flash wasn't around anymore" and he'd basically never be able to gain the upper hand in their rivalry ever again. It's hard enough as it is with JD having a clearly "weak" matchup atm. Furthermore there's Bisu. If he gets his shit together in individual leagues he'd probably be the favorite over Jaedong in a BoX. And now enough with the woulds and coulds. God Young Ho will recover, win many more titles and leave a trail of ash in his wake! All hail the God Child! + Show Spoiler +In all seriousness, get well soon Flash! <3 <3 <3 I'm worried about you... =( Again, ELO wise, he is not the greatest. Both Bisu and Jaedong have achieved higher ELO peaks in their niches, balanced to race ELO baseline. To be honest, he is excellent player with great achievements, but lets be realistic, there are facets in which other players have been better. Rofl, ELO is one thing where Flash absolutely destroys all competition. XD Don't even wanna think about Flash retiring. On June 27 2011 05:54 beachbeachy wrote:On June 27 2011 04:03 xarthaz wrote:On June 26 2011 23:35 Ermac wrote:I'll miss just about everything about Flash cause I'm deeply in love with him(no gayness yo!) The only positive side of a potential retirement would be that Flash would very probably be considered the greatest of all time period. He absolutely demolished Jaedong when it counted and matched NaDa's record at the age of 18(!!!!) amongst breaking and setting various other incredible records. It would suck for Jaedong though. No matter how many titles he'd win people would always say "yeah, cuz Flash wasn't around anymore" and he'd basically never be able to gain the upper hand in their rivalry ever again. It's hard enough as it is with JD having a clearly "weak" matchup atm. Furthermore there's Bisu. If he gets his shit together in individual leagues he'd probably be the favorite over Jaedong in a BoX. And now enough with the woulds and coulds. God Young Ho will recover, win many more titles and leave a trail of ash in his wake! All hail the God Child! + Show Spoiler +In all seriousness, get well soon Flash! <3 <3 <3 I'm worried about you... =( Again, ELO wise, he is not the greatest. Both Bisu and Jaedong have achieved higher ELO peaks in their niches, balanced to race ELO baseline. To be honest, he is excellent player with great achievements, but lets be realistic, there are facets in which other players have been better. Flash holds every single ELO record. On June 27 2011 06:13 Brainbag wrote:On June 27 2011 04:03 xarthaz wrote:On June 26 2011 23:35 Ermac wrote:I'll miss just about everything about Flash cause I'm deeply in love with him(no gayness yo!) The only positive side of a potential retirement would be that Flash would very probably be considered the greatest of all time period. He absolutely demolished Jaedong when it counted and matched NaDa's record at the age of 18(!!!!) amongst breaking and setting various other incredible records. It would suck for Jaedong though. No matter how many titles he'd win people would always say "yeah, cuz Flash wasn't around anymore" and he'd basically never be able to gain the upper hand in their rivalry ever again. It's hard enough as it is with JD having a clearly "weak" matchup atm. Furthermore there's Bisu. If he gets his shit together in individual leagues he'd probably be the favorite over Jaedong in a BoX. And now enough with the woulds and coulds. God Young Ho will recover, win many more titles and leave a trail of ash in his wake! All hail the God Child! + Show Spoiler +In all seriousness, get well soon Flash! <3 <3 <3 I'm worried about you... =( Again, ELO wise, he is not the greatest. Both Bisu and Jaedong have achieved higher ELO peaks in their niches, balanced to race ELO baseline. To be honest, he is excellent player with great achievements, but lets be realistic, there are facets in which other players have been better. That can be said about every single player out there who has ever beaten flash. But as a jaedong fan, I must say this. Flash is the most consitent players out there, in terms of winning, and mechanics. He hits a small slump and a wrist injury, and you have come to say Flash is not the greatest ELO wise without proof of anything. Here is your ELO proof + Show Spoiler +And here is Flash's small slump. + Show Spoiler +Now look through all the games he has played, and against whom he has played, and tell me he isnt the most consistent player out there who plays the best already. On June 27 2011 05:12 Sypuku wrote:On June 27 2011 04:03 xarthaz wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On June 26 2011 23:35 Ermac wrote:I'll miss just about everything about Flash cause I'm deeply in love with him(no gayness yo!) The only positive side of a potential retirement would be that Flash would very probably be considered the greatest of all time period. He absolutely demolished Jaedong when it counted and matched NaDa's record at the age of 18(!!!!) amongst breaking and setting various other incredible records. It would suck for Jaedong though. No matter how many titles he'd win people would always say "yeah, cuz Flash wasn't around anymore" and he'd basically never be able to gain the upper hand in their rivalry ever again. It's hard enough as it is with JD having a clearly "weak" matchup atm. Furthermore there's Bisu. If he gets his shit together in individual leagues he'd probably be the favorite over Jaedong in a BoX. And now enough with the woulds and coulds. God Young Ho will recover, win many more titles and leave a trail of ash in his wake! All hail the God Child! + Show Spoiler +In all seriousness, get well soon Flash! <3 <3 <3 I'm worried about you... =( Again, ELO wise, he is not the greatest. Both Bisu and Jaedong have achieved higher ELO peaks in their niches, balanced to race ELO baseline. To be honest, he is excellent player with great achievements, but lets be realistic, there are facets in which other players have been better. LOL. ALL Elo peaks belong to Flash. U just trolling? Or u want to say: Bisu is the better protoss than Flash and Jaedong is the better zerg than Flash? LOL. Yes it is true... But Flash is terran and he is the greatest player ever towering over everybody. The latest criticisms of the concept of average race elo as a describer of matchup bias. Unfortunately they are unsubstantiated, and further elaboration is necessary to show their validity. You are the one trying to prove that "unbiased blah elo blah etc". Seriously, I've read all of your comments regarding the subject and you have a very interesting personal opinion, but no arguments at all to support it. You say it's biased, we ALL say it's not. Have you proven us wrong? nope. You are the one who needs "criticize" our position. One could thing that the graphic in the first post is an argument, but not really. I mean, if Zerg defeated Terran more often, would that make Flash better or worse at TvZ? How? Would that affect his micro, macro, decision making or multitasking? Please, I urge you to think about that before posting your next highly intellectual and polite comment. The bias is the asymmetry in matchup results. You see,matchup being uneven in results implies it being uneven in conditions that lead to results. Assuming equal player base and information asymmetries between races(reasonable assumption, given races all having 30+ active players), there is no other option than matchup bias being the cause of the result asymmetries. As such, the result comparison between races, without accounting for bias, must necessarily be incorrect. This is the premise of the study of matchup biases. And given the conditions i presented, it is necessarily true. Revy> yeah i was thinking about the same thing in bed yesterday and kinda agree - the reason i applied the same bias coefficients in assesment of flash elo peaks was appeal to tradition - given the long standing folk acceptance of the balance
So you are not denying that Flash is the best vZ player ever. Your are saying that the reason he is better is that TvZ is easier.
So, Flash's vZ is the best in world. I'm glad we agree on that.
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On June 24 2011 07:13 Raz0r wrote:
Protoss needs help. When was the last time a freaking PROTOSS won a Starleague?! 3 Years?!?! Even throughout the history of proleague, there are no Protoss Bonjwas, and not enough protoss starleague champions. Zerg and Terran have far more than their share of titles. Some say that Protoss skill ceiling isn't as high as the other races because the nature of their units, while zerg and terran if microed "perfectly" like placing mines and siege tanks in the most perfect positions, then their potential is higher. Why do we not see more Protoss winning? Is it just random chance that we have a disproportionate win rates for the Protoss? By win rates I don't mean the overall winning ratio in regular matches, I'm talking about the results, such as the match for titles.
Looking at results only, Protoss definitely seems underpowered among top-level pros. However, imagine a Protoss player that had Stork's PvT and Bisu's PvZ. Such a player would be likely to have success comparable to Jaedong's, perhaps even Flash's. Maybe it's just a fluke that there is no Protoss of that skill level.
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I think your argument of "T>P>Z>T" should be changed to "T>B>J>T", with "F" completely out of the picture, because he is a clear anomaly. If you know what I mean.
IMO you're confusing player skill with race potential. Honestly, if Flash switched to Protoss he would probably achieve equally insane results. If Bisu switched to Terran, Flash would still consistently roll him over. Flash with his flexible mind has the ability to do just about everything perfectly, which suits the Terran race perfectly; Bisu has an extremely aggressive mindset that fits in neatly to PvZ. Your graph, which basically just says that "at the top ranks, P<Z and T<P", doesn't conclude anything because at this level, player skill matters more than matchup imbalance or race potential.
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On June 28 2011 12:04 holyhalo5 wrote:I think your argument of "T>P>Z>T" should be changed to "T>B>J>T", with "F" completely out of the picture, because he is a clear anomaly. If you know what I mean. IMO you're confusing player skill with race potential. Honestly, if Flash switched to Protoss he would probably achieve equally insane results. If Bisu switched to Terran, Flash would still consistently roll him over. Flash with his flexible mind has the ability to do just about everything perfectly, which suits the Terran race perfectly; Bisu has an extremely aggressive mindset that fits in neatly to PvZ. Your graph, which basically just says that "at the top ranks, P<Z and T<P", doesn't conclude anything because at this level, player skill matters more than matchup imbalance or race potential.
If Flash is so great, then why is it that Jaedong and Bisu have risen higher above the average performance of their races than Flash has? With vZ Being an example. And Jaedong having risen higher above the average than Flash vT. Because comparing with the average (along with the additional premise Revy pointed out) Flash is only the most impressive player in vP matchups.On June 28 2011 11:06 agarangu wrote:Show nested quote +On June 28 2011 10:36 xarthaz wrote:On June 27 2011 14:52 agarangu wrote:On June 27 2011 12:26 xarthaz wrote:On June 27 2011 09:12 Ermac wrote:On June 27 2011 04:03 xarthaz wrote:On June 26 2011 23:35 Ermac wrote:I'll miss just about everything about Flash cause I'm deeply in love with him(no gayness yo!) The only positive side of a potential retirement would be that Flash would very probably be considered the greatest of all time period. He absolutely demolished Jaedong when it counted and matched NaDa's record at the age of 18(!!!!) amongst breaking and setting various other incredible records. It would suck for Jaedong though. No matter how many titles he'd win people would always say "yeah, cuz Flash wasn't around anymore" and he'd basically never be able to gain the upper hand in their rivalry ever again. It's hard enough as it is with JD having a clearly "weak" matchup atm. Furthermore there's Bisu. If he gets his shit together in individual leagues he'd probably be the favorite over Jaedong in a BoX. And now enough with the woulds and coulds. God Young Ho will recover, win many more titles and leave a trail of ash in his wake! All hail the God Child! + Show Spoiler +In all seriousness, get well soon Flash! <3 <3 <3 I'm worried about you... =( Again, ELO wise, he is not the greatest. Both Bisu and Jaedong have achieved higher ELO peaks in their niches, balanced to race ELO baseline. To be honest, he is excellent player with great achievements, but lets be realistic, there are facets in which other players have been better. Lol, you and your "relative ELO". Give me a break... On June 27 2011 09:49 L0thar wrote:
xarthaz:
This is Flash Appreciation Thread. Nobody here is interested in your questionable interpretation of Elo. You made your own thread about it and that's the appropriate place to discuss it further. Coming to an appreciation thread just to say "hey dudes, your favourite player is not that good as you think!" is pretty dick move. On June 27 2011 09:54 Like wrote:On June 27 2011 09:49 L0thar wrote:
xarthaz:
This is Flash Appreciation Thread. Nobody here is interested in your questionable interpretation of Elo. You made your own thread about it and that's the appropriate place to discuss it further. Coming to an appreciation thread just to say "hey dudes, your favourite player is not that good as you think!" is pretty dick move. Thing is, he even was wrong in his statement. On June 27 2011 12:18 GolemMadness wrote:You are partly correct. The error you are making is confusing player skill with final ELO. Yes, in the final choice of RORO flash would be more scary, which ELO describes perfectly. The use of comparing ELOs to average is to normalize results to race biases.
You see, matchup biases exist, it is a fact, implied by the very characterisitics that define the race. Because of that, direct comparison is erroneous. As such,the elimination of race bias through normalization is correct, as it achieves what it is supposed to achieve, comparable values that eliminate race bias.
This is tangential of course. But the reason i brought this point is to bring the flash fans up from the skies back to earth. As you see, Flash too is mortal, he is not best at everything, and vZ performance(Bisu all time highest in unbiased ELO) and vT performance(Jaedong all time highest in unbiased ELO) is the example of the point in question.
With all that in mind though, Cheers to flash and Lets hope for fast recovery and many excellent future games. For surely, at least in vP terms, he is the best player of all time. Nobody cares or agrees with you. Stop acting as though your opinion on "unbiased elo" is fact. On June 27 2011 12:23 Sypuku wrote:On June 27 2011 12:18 GolemMadness wrote:+ Show Spoiler +You are partly correct. The error you are making is confusing player skill with final ELO. Yes, in the final choice of RORO flash would be more scary, which ELO describes perfectly. The use of comparing ELOs to average is to normalize results to race biases.
You see, matchup biases exist, it is a fact, implied by the very characterisitics that define the race. Because of that, direct comparison is erroneous. As such,the elimination of race bias through normalization is correct, as it achieves what it is supposed to achieve, comparable values that eliminate race bias.
This is tangential of course. But the reason i brought this point is to bring the flash fans up from the skies back to earth. As you see, Flash too is mortal, he is not best at everything, and vZ performance(Bisu all time highest in unbiased ELO) and vT performance(Jaedong all time highest in unbiased ELO) is the example of the point in question.
With all that in mind though, Cheers to flash and Lets hope for fast recovery and many excellent future games. For surely, at least in vP terms, he is the best player of all time. Nobody cares or agrees with you. Stop acting as though your opinion on "unbiased elo" is fact. He is just boring troll, trying to argue that 2x2=3 or 2x2=5 depending on race :-) On June 27 2011 07:32 Holgerius wrote:On June 27 2011 04:03 xarthaz wrote:On June 26 2011 23:35 Ermac wrote:I'll miss just about everything about Flash cause I'm deeply in love with him(no gayness yo!) The only positive side of a potential retirement would be that Flash would very probably be considered the greatest of all time period. He absolutely demolished Jaedong when it counted and matched NaDa's record at the age of 18(!!!!) amongst breaking and setting various other incredible records. It would suck for Jaedong though. No matter how many titles he'd win people would always say "yeah, cuz Flash wasn't around anymore" and he'd basically never be able to gain the upper hand in their rivalry ever again. It's hard enough as it is with JD having a clearly "weak" matchup atm. Furthermore there's Bisu. If he gets his shit together in individual leagues he'd probably be the favorite over Jaedong in a BoX. And now enough with the woulds and coulds. God Young Ho will recover, win many more titles and leave a trail of ash in his wake! All hail the God Child! + Show Spoiler +In all seriousness, get well soon Flash! <3 <3 <3 I'm worried about you... =( Again, ELO wise, he is not the greatest. Both Bisu and Jaedong have achieved higher ELO peaks in their niches, balanced to race ELO baseline. To be honest, he is excellent player with great achievements, but lets be realistic, there are facets in which other players have been better. Rofl, ELO is one thing where Flash absolutely destroys all competition. XD Don't even wanna think about Flash retiring. On June 27 2011 05:54 beachbeachy wrote:On June 27 2011 04:03 xarthaz wrote:On June 26 2011 23:35 Ermac wrote:I'll miss just about everything about Flash cause I'm deeply in love with him(no gayness yo!) The only positive side of a potential retirement would be that Flash would very probably be considered the greatest of all time period. He absolutely demolished Jaedong when it counted and matched NaDa's record at the age of 18(!!!!) amongst breaking and setting various other incredible records. It would suck for Jaedong though. No matter how many titles he'd win people would always say "yeah, cuz Flash wasn't around anymore" and he'd basically never be able to gain the upper hand in their rivalry ever again. It's hard enough as it is with JD having a clearly "weak" matchup atm. Furthermore there's Bisu. If he gets his shit together in individual leagues he'd probably be the favorite over Jaedong in a BoX. And now enough with the woulds and coulds. God Young Ho will recover, win many more titles and leave a trail of ash in his wake! All hail the God Child! + Show Spoiler +In all seriousness, get well soon Flash! <3 <3 <3 I'm worried about you... =( Again, ELO wise, he is not the greatest. Both Bisu and Jaedong have achieved higher ELO peaks in their niches, balanced to race ELO baseline. To be honest, he is excellent player with great achievements, but lets be realistic, there are facets in which other players have been better. Flash holds every single ELO record. On June 27 2011 06:13 Brainbag wrote:On June 27 2011 04:03 xarthaz wrote:On June 26 2011 23:35 Ermac wrote:I'll miss just about everything about Flash cause I'm deeply in love with him(no gayness yo!) The only positive side of a potential retirement would be that Flash would very probably be considered the greatest of all time period. He absolutely demolished Jaedong when it counted and matched NaDa's record at the age of 18(!!!!) amongst breaking and setting various other incredible records. It would suck for Jaedong though. No matter how many titles he'd win people would always say "yeah, cuz Flash wasn't around anymore" and he'd basically never be able to gain the upper hand in their rivalry ever again. It's hard enough as it is with JD having a clearly "weak" matchup atm. Furthermore there's Bisu. If he gets his shit together in individual leagues he'd probably be the favorite over Jaedong in a BoX. And now enough with the woulds and coulds. God Young Ho will recover, win many more titles and leave a trail of ash in his wake! All hail the God Child! + Show Spoiler +In all seriousness, get well soon Flash! <3 <3 <3 I'm worried about you... =( Again, ELO wise, he is not the greatest. Both Bisu and Jaedong have achieved higher ELO peaks in their niches, balanced to race ELO baseline. To be honest, he is excellent player with great achievements, but lets be realistic, there are facets in which other players have been better. That can be said about every single player out there who has ever beaten flash. But as a jaedong fan, I must say this. Flash is the most consitent players out there, in terms of winning, and mechanics. He hits a small slump and a wrist injury, and you have come to say Flash is not the greatest ELO wise without proof of anything. Here is your ELO proof + Show Spoiler +And here is Flash's small slump. + Show Spoiler +Now look through all the games he has played, and against whom he has played, and tell me he isnt the most consistent player out there who plays the best already. On June 27 2011 05:12 Sypuku wrote:On June 27 2011 04:03 xarthaz wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On June 26 2011 23:35 Ermac wrote:I'll miss just about everything about Flash cause I'm deeply in love with him(no gayness yo!) The only positive side of a potential retirement would be that Flash would very probably be considered the greatest of all time period. He absolutely demolished Jaedong when it counted and matched NaDa's record at the age of 18(!!!!) amongst breaking and setting various other incredible records. It would suck for Jaedong though. No matter how many titles he'd win people would always say "yeah, cuz Flash wasn't around anymore" and he'd basically never be able to gain the upper hand in their rivalry ever again. It's hard enough as it is with JD having a clearly "weak" matchup atm. Furthermore there's Bisu. If he gets his shit together in individual leagues he'd probably be the favorite over Jaedong in a BoX. And now enough with the woulds and coulds. God Young Ho will recover, win many more titles and leave a trail of ash in his wake! All hail the God Child! + Show Spoiler +In all seriousness, get well soon Flash! <3 <3 <3 I'm worried about you... =( Again, ELO wise, he is not the greatest. Both Bisu and Jaedong have achieved higher ELO peaks in their niches, balanced to race ELO baseline. To be honest, he is excellent player with great achievements, but lets be realistic, there are facets in which other players have been better. LOL. ALL Elo peaks belong to Flash. U just trolling? Or u want to say: Bisu is the better protoss than Flash and Jaedong is the better zerg than Flash? LOL. Yes it is true... But Flash is terran and he is the greatest player ever towering over everybody. The latest criticisms of the concept of average race elo as a describer of matchup bias. Unfortunately they are unsubstantiated, and further elaboration is necessary to show their validity. You are the one trying to prove that "unbiased blah elo blah etc". Seriously, I've read all of your comments regarding the subject and you have a very interesting personal opinion, but no arguments at all to support it. You say it's biased, we ALL say it's not. Have you proven us wrong? nope. You are the one who needs "criticize" our position. One could thing that the graphic in the first post is an argument, but not really. I mean, if Zerg defeated Terran more often, would that make Flash better or worse at TvZ? How? Would that affect his micro, macro, decision making or multitasking? Please, I urge you to think about that before posting your next highly intellectual and polite comment. The bias is the asymmetry in matchup results. You see,matchup being uneven in results implies it being uneven in conditions that lead to results. Assuming equal player base and information asymmetries between races(reasonable assumption, given races all having 30+ active players), there is no other option than matchup bias being the cause of the result asymmetries. As such, the result comparison between races, without accounting for bias, must necessarily be incorrect. This is the premise of the study of matchup biases. And given the conditions i presented, it is necessarily true. Revy> yeah i was thinking about the same thing in bed yesterday and kinda agree - the reason i applied the same bias coefficients in assesment of flash elo peaks was appeal to tradition - given the long standing folk acceptance of the balance So you are not denying that Flash is the best vZ player ever. Your are saying that the reason he is better is that TvZ is easier. So, Flash's vZ is the best in world. I'm glad we agree on that.
Best in results - but given the premise of results being an a proportional function of both skill and bias - the claim of Flash being best skill wise does not follow, given the bias estimation relative to average players' pergormance
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I haven't had time to properly read everything, but there are some (possible) problems:
1) Seems like you are identifying skill with Elo. Which is obviously bad idea, as player skill is much more complex thing than what a pretty simple statistics like Elo tries to capture. One possible problem should be clearer from point 2.
2) You are trying to estimate player skill without the influence of the race he plays, right? But that cannot be done simply by jugling some Elo numbers. Players choose their own race and they do that based on what best suits their playstyle. They choose the race with which they have the best results, the race in which they can reach greatest "skill".
So, if your other assertion are correct (and I'm not saying thery are), you can say, that for example Bisu PvZ is better relatively to others PvZ-ers than Flash TvZ is relatively to others TvZ-ers. But you can't make direct comparison between the vZ skill between these two. What you can say (while still having in mind point 1) is that Flash is, based on Elo, better vZ-er, thanks both to selecting better "tool" (terran) and his skill with it.
3) You are assuming that Elo grows somewhat lineraly, which is not the case. The higher you are, the more you can lose and the less you can gain. If there really is some race bias which should be normalized, it couldn't be simply done on final results. It should be done gradualy, in each game. Then for example JD would gain more points in ZvT and would generaly float on higher Elo, resulting in getting less points for win and losing more points for loss. For Flash, the exact opposite would be true. Just slapping +25 Elo to zergs and -25 to terran is very simplistic approach, which I cannot support here.
4) Don't you find funny that by your analysis the most skiller vP player is terran, vZ player is protoss and vT player is zerg? I'm not saying it proves anything, but if I was doing this statistic, it would get me thinking if the normalization I used wasn't too strong (see point 3 where it could've gone wrong).
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About point 1&2> it appears that according to the model: results being an a proportional function of both skill and bias;
While describing skill as a function may be difficult, that is not relevant to the question in the claims in making. in the question skill is only a parameter of the result function, it is not looked at as a function itself, it is considered a teleological premise and as such rejected from further insight.
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EPT
