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I think the biggest problem in your assessment of racial balance is that you take one instant in time, apply corrections and assume that they hold for all times past and future. Your initial post makes no mention of this really but this is essentially how you have applied it in every other thread you've visited. I think you would pretty much have to redo this for many different time periods (both in the past and in the future) to get a sense of how typical this dataset that you're working with is.
Further you would really have to readjust each player's peak with the dataset which corresponds to that time. Worse yet you introduce the possibility that a player's XvX peak is not truly a peak as now you have to consider how all of that player's racial peers are doing in XvX at that instant. For example it's quite possible that Bisu's vZ elo peak is not his true peak as there is a potential that at some point he was doing even better compared to the average PvZ ELO.
In short, interesting analysis but you cannot apply it to say that Flash's ELO peaks aren't the best.
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On June 27 2011 14:52 agarangu wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2011 12:26 xarthaz wrote:On June 27 2011 09:12 Ermac wrote:On June 27 2011 04:03 xarthaz wrote:On June 26 2011 23:35 Ermac wrote:I'll miss just about everything about Flash cause I'm deeply in love with him(no gayness yo!) The only positive side of a potential retirement would be that Flash would very probably be considered the greatest of all time period. He absolutely demolished Jaedong when it counted and matched NaDa's record at the age of 18(!!!!) amongst breaking and setting various other incredible records. It would suck for Jaedong though. No matter how many titles he'd win people would always say "yeah, cuz Flash wasn't around anymore" and he'd basically never be able to gain the upper hand in their rivalry ever again. It's hard enough as it is with JD having a clearly "weak" matchup atm. Furthermore there's Bisu. If he gets his shit together in individual leagues he'd probably be the favorite over Jaedong in a BoX. And now enough with the woulds and coulds. God Young Ho will recover, win many more titles and leave a trail of ash in his wake! All hail the God Child! + Show Spoiler +In all seriousness, get well soon Flash! <3 <3 <3 I'm worried about you... =( Again, ELO wise, he is not the greatest. Both Bisu and Jaedong have achieved higher ELO peaks in their niches, balanced to race ELO baseline. To be honest, he is excellent player with great achievements, but lets be realistic, there are facets in which other players have been better. Lol, you and your "relative ELO". Give me a break... On June 27 2011 09:49 L0thar wrote:
xarthaz:
This is Flash Appreciation Thread. Nobody here is interested in your questionable interpretation of Elo. You made your own thread about it and that's the appropriate place to discuss it further. Coming to an appreciation thread just to say "hey dudes, your favourite player is not that good as you think!" is pretty dick move. On June 27 2011 09:54 Like wrote:On June 27 2011 09:49 L0thar wrote:
xarthaz:
This is Flash Appreciation Thread. Nobody here is interested in your questionable interpretation of Elo. You made your own thread about it and that's the appropriate place to discuss it further. Coming to an appreciation thread just to say "hey dudes, your favourite player is not that good as you think!" is pretty dick move. Thing is, he even was wrong in his statement. On June 27 2011 12:18 GolemMadness wrote:You are partly correct. The error you are making is confusing player skill with final ELO. Yes, in the final choice of RORO flash would be more scary, which ELO describes perfectly. The use of comparing ELOs to average is to normalize results to race biases.
You see, matchup biases exist, it is a fact, implied by the very characterisitics that define the race. Because of that, direct comparison is erroneous. As such,the elimination of race bias through normalization is correct, as it achieves what it is supposed to achieve, comparable values that eliminate race bias.
This is tangential of course. But the reason i brought this point is to bring the flash fans up from the skies back to earth. As you see, Flash too is mortal, he is not best at everything, and vZ performance(Bisu all time highest in unbiased ELO) and vT performance(Jaedong all time highest in unbiased ELO) is the example of the point in question.
With all that in mind though, Cheers to flash and Lets hope for fast recovery and many excellent future games. For surely, at least in vP terms, he is the best player of all time. Nobody cares or agrees with you. Stop acting as though your opinion on "unbiased elo" is fact. On June 27 2011 12:23 Sypuku wrote:On June 27 2011 12:18 GolemMadness wrote:+ Show Spoiler +You are partly correct. The error you are making is confusing player skill with final ELO. Yes, in the final choice of RORO flash would be more scary, which ELO describes perfectly. The use of comparing ELOs to average is to normalize results to race biases.
You see, matchup biases exist, it is a fact, implied by the very characterisitics that define the race. Because of that, direct comparison is erroneous. As such,the elimination of race bias through normalization is correct, as it achieves what it is supposed to achieve, comparable values that eliminate race bias.
This is tangential of course. But the reason i brought this point is to bring the flash fans up from the skies back to earth. As you see, Flash too is mortal, he is not best at everything, and vZ performance(Bisu all time highest in unbiased ELO) and vT performance(Jaedong all time highest in unbiased ELO) is the example of the point in question.
With all that in mind though, Cheers to flash and Lets hope for fast recovery and many excellent future games. For surely, at least in vP terms, he is the best player of all time. Nobody cares or agrees with you. Stop acting as though your opinion on "unbiased elo" is fact. He is just boring troll, trying to argue that 2x2=3 or 2x2=5 depending on race :-) On June 27 2011 07:32 Holgerius wrote:On June 27 2011 04:03 xarthaz wrote:On June 26 2011 23:35 Ermac wrote:I'll miss just about everything about Flash cause I'm deeply in love with him(no gayness yo!) The only positive side of a potential retirement would be that Flash would very probably be considered the greatest of all time period. He absolutely demolished Jaedong when it counted and matched NaDa's record at the age of 18(!!!!) amongst breaking and setting various other incredible records. It would suck for Jaedong though. No matter how many titles he'd win people would always say "yeah, cuz Flash wasn't around anymore" and he'd basically never be able to gain the upper hand in their rivalry ever again. It's hard enough as it is with JD having a clearly "weak" matchup atm. Furthermore there's Bisu. If he gets his shit together in individual leagues he'd probably be the favorite over Jaedong in a BoX. And now enough with the woulds and coulds. God Young Ho will recover, win many more titles and leave a trail of ash in his wake! All hail the God Child! + Show Spoiler +In all seriousness, get well soon Flash! <3 <3 <3 I'm worried about you... =( Again, ELO wise, he is not the greatest. Both Bisu and Jaedong have achieved higher ELO peaks in their niches, balanced to race ELO baseline. To be honest, he is excellent player with great achievements, but lets be realistic, there are facets in which other players have been better. Rofl, ELO is one thing where Flash absolutely destroys all competition. XD Don't even wanna think about Flash retiring.  On June 27 2011 05:54 beachbeachy wrote:On June 27 2011 04:03 xarthaz wrote:On June 26 2011 23:35 Ermac wrote:I'll miss just about everything about Flash cause I'm deeply in love with him(no gayness yo!) The only positive side of a potential retirement would be that Flash would very probably be considered the greatest of all time period. He absolutely demolished Jaedong when it counted and matched NaDa's record at the age of 18(!!!!) amongst breaking and setting various other incredible records. It would suck for Jaedong though. No matter how many titles he'd win people would always say "yeah, cuz Flash wasn't around anymore" and he'd basically never be able to gain the upper hand in their rivalry ever again. It's hard enough as it is with JD having a clearly "weak" matchup atm. Furthermore there's Bisu. If he gets his shit together in individual leagues he'd probably be the favorite over Jaedong in a BoX. And now enough with the woulds and coulds. God Young Ho will recover, win many more titles and leave a trail of ash in his wake! All hail the God Child! + Show Spoiler +In all seriousness, get well soon Flash! <3 <3 <3 I'm worried about you... =( Again, ELO wise, he is not the greatest. Both Bisu and Jaedong have achieved higher ELO peaks in their niches, balanced to race ELO baseline. To be honest, he is excellent player with great achievements, but lets be realistic, there are facets in which other players have been better. Flash holds every single ELO record. On June 27 2011 06:13 Brainbag wrote:On June 27 2011 04:03 xarthaz wrote:On June 26 2011 23:35 Ermac wrote:I'll miss just about everything about Flash cause I'm deeply in love with him(no gayness yo!) The only positive side of a potential retirement would be that Flash would very probably be considered the greatest of all time period. He absolutely demolished Jaedong when it counted and matched NaDa's record at the age of 18(!!!!) amongst breaking and setting various other incredible records. It would suck for Jaedong though. No matter how many titles he'd win people would always say "yeah, cuz Flash wasn't around anymore" and he'd basically never be able to gain the upper hand in their rivalry ever again. It's hard enough as it is with JD having a clearly "weak" matchup atm. Furthermore there's Bisu. If he gets his shit together in individual leagues he'd probably be the favorite over Jaedong in a BoX. And now enough with the woulds and coulds. God Young Ho will recover, win many more titles and leave a trail of ash in his wake! All hail the God Child! + Show Spoiler +In all seriousness, get well soon Flash! <3 <3 <3 I'm worried about you... =( Again, ELO wise, he is not the greatest. Both Bisu and Jaedong have achieved higher ELO peaks in their niches, balanced to race ELO baseline. To be honest, he is excellent player with great achievements, but lets be realistic, there are facets in which other players have been better. That can be said about every single player out there who has ever beaten flash. But as a jaedong fan, I must say this. Flash is the most consitent players out there, in terms of winning, and mechanics. He hits a small slump and a wrist injury, and you have come to say Flash is not the greatest ELO wise without proof of anything. Here is your ELO proof + Show Spoiler +And here is Flash's small slump. + Show Spoiler +Now look through all the games he has played, and against whom he has played, and tell me he isnt the most consistent player out there who plays the best already. On June 27 2011 05:12 Sypuku wrote:On June 27 2011 04:03 xarthaz wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On June 26 2011 23:35 Ermac wrote:I'll miss just about everything about Flash cause I'm deeply in love with him(no gayness yo!) The only positive side of a potential retirement would be that Flash would very probably be considered the greatest of all time period. He absolutely demolished Jaedong when it counted and matched NaDa's record at the age of 18(!!!!) amongst breaking and setting various other incredible records. It would suck for Jaedong though. No matter how many titles he'd win people would always say "yeah, cuz Flash wasn't around anymore" and he'd basically never be able to gain the upper hand in their rivalry ever again. It's hard enough as it is with JD having a clearly "weak" matchup atm. Furthermore there's Bisu. If he gets his shit together in individual leagues he'd probably be the favorite over Jaedong in a BoX. And now enough with the woulds and coulds. God Young Ho will recover, win many more titles and leave a trail of ash in his wake! All hail the God Child! + Show Spoiler +In all seriousness, get well soon Flash! <3 <3 <3 I'm worried about you... =( Again, ELO wise, he is not the greatest. Both Bisu and Jaedong have achieved higher ELO peaks in their niches, balanced to race ELO baseline. To be honest, he is excellent player with great achievements, but lets be realistic, there are facets in which other players have been better. LOL. ALL Elo peaks belong to Flash. U just trolling? Or u want to say: Bisu is the better protoss than Flash and Jaedong is the better zerg than Flash? LOL. Yes it is true... But Flash is terran and he is the greatest player ever towering over everybody. The latest criticisms of the concept of average race elo as a describer of matchup bias. Unfortunately they are unsubstantiated, and further elaboration is necessary to show their validity. You are the one trying to prove that "unbiased blah elo blah etc". Seriously, I've read all of your comments regarding the subject and you have a very interesting personal opinion, but no arguments at all to support it. You say it's biased, we ALL say it's not. Have you proven us wrong? nope. You are the one who needs "criticize" our position. One could thing that the graphic in the first post is an argument, but not really. I mean, if Zerg defeated Terran more often, would that make Flash better or worse at TvZ? How? Would that affect his micro, macro, decision making or multitasking? Please, I urge you to think about that before posting your next highly intellectual and polite comment.
The bias is the asymmetry in matchup results. You see,matchup being uneven in results implies it being uneven in conditions that lead to results. Assuming equal player base and information asymmetries between races(reasonable assumption, given races all having 30+ active players), there is no other option than matchup bias being the cause of the result asymmetries. As such, the result comparison between races, without accounting for bias, must necessarily be incorrect. This is the premise of the study of matchup biases. And given the conditions i presented, it is necessarily true.
Revy> yeah i was thinking about the same thing in bed yesterday and kinda agree - the reason i applied the same bias coefficients in assesment of flash elo peaks was appeal to tradition - given the long standing folk acceptance of the balance
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I just don't think you can say things like 'T is overpowered' when one single player is the only thing making it seem overpowered.
If Flash didn't exist, then by all indications these past few years would have been a Zerg era.
The mirror matchup graphs are interesting though, having a skill-based mirror definitely is good for producing bonjwas, which may explain why so many were Terran.
Edit: But now that I look at it again, the TvT graph looks just like the ZvZ and PvP graph if you remove Flash...
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On June 28 2011 10:36 xarthaz wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2011 14:52 agarangu wrote:On June 27 2011 12:26 xarthaz wrote:On June 27 2011 09:12 Ermac wrote:On June 27 2011 04:03 xarthaz wrote:On June 26 2011 23:35 Ermac wrote:I'll miss just about everything about Flash cause I'm deeply in love with him(no gayness yo!) The only positive side of a potential retirement would be that Flash would very probably be considered the greatest of all time period. He absolutely demolished Jaedong when it counted and matched NaDa's record at the age of 18(!!!!) amongst breaking and setting various other incredible records. It would suck for Jaedong though. No matter how many titles he'd win people would always say "yeah, cuz Flash wasn't around anymore" and he'd basically never be able to gain the upper hand in their rivalry ever again. It's hard enough as it is with JD having a clearly "weak" matchup atm. Furthermore there's Bisu. If he gets his shit together in individual leagues he'd probably be the favorite over Jaedong in a BoX. And now enough with the woulds and coulds. God Young Ho will recover, win many more titles and leave a trail of ash in his wake! All hail the God Child! + Show Spoiler +In all seriousness, get well soon Flash! <3 <3 <3 I'm worried about you... =( Again, ELO wise, he is not the greatest. Both Bisu and Jaedong have achieved higher ELO peaks in their niches, balanced to race ELO baseline. To be honest, he is excellent player with great achievements, but lets be realistic, there are facets in which other players have been better. Lol, you and your "relative ELO". Give me a break... On June 27 2011 09:49 L0thar wrote:
xarthaz:
This is Flash Appreciation Thread. Nobody here is interested in your questionable interpretation of Elo. You made your own thread about it and that's the appropriate place to discuss it further. Coming to an appreciation thread just to say "hey dudes, your favourite player is not that good as you think!" is pretty dick move. On June 27 2011 09:54 Like wrote:On June 27 2011 09:49 L0thar wrote:
xarthaz:
This is Flash Appreciation Thread. Nobody here is interested in your questionable interpretation of Elo. You made your own thread about it and that's the appropriate place to discuss it further. Coming to an appreciation thread just to say "hey dudes, your favourite player is not that good as you think!" is pretty dick move. Thing is, he even was wrong in his statement. On June 27 2011 12:18 GolemMadness wrote:You are partly correct. The error you are making is confusing player skill with final ELO. Yes, in the final choice of RORO flash would be more scary, which ELO describes perfectly. The use of comparing ELOs to average is to normalize results to race biases.
You see, matchup biases exist, it is a fact, implied by the very characterisitics that define the race. Because of that, direct comparison is erroneous. As such,the elimination of race bias through normalization is correct, as it achieves what it is supposed to achieve, comparable values that eliminate race bias.
This is tangential of course. But the reason i brought this point is to bring the flash fans up from the skies back to earth. As you see, Flash too is mortal, he is not best at everything, and vZ performance(Bisu all time highest in unbiased ELO) and vT performance(Jaedong all time highest in unbiased ELO) is the example of the point in question.
With all that in mind though, Cheers to flash and Lets hope for fast recovery and many excellent future games. For surely, at least in vP terms, he is the best player of all time. Nobody cares or agrees with you. Stop acting as though your opinion on "unbiased elo" is fact. On June 27 2011 12:23 Sypuku wrote:On June 27 2011 12:18 GolemMadness wrote:+ Show Spoiler +You are partly correct. The error you are making is confusing player skill with final ELO. Yes, in the final choice of RORO flash would be more scary, which ELO describes perfectly. The use of comparing ELOs to average is to normalize results to race biases.
You see, matchup biases exist, it is a fact, implied by the very characterisitics that define the race. Because of that, direct comparison is erroneous. As such,the elimination of race bias through normalization is correct, as it achieves what it is supposed to achieve, comparable values that eliminate race bias.
This is tangential of course. But the reason i brought this point is to bring the flash fans up from the skies back to earth. As you see, Flash too is mortal, he is not best at everything, and vZ performance(Bisu all time highest in unbiased ELO) and vT performance(Jaedong all time highest in unbiased ELO) is the example of the point in question.
With all that in mind though, Cheers to flash and Lets hope for fast recovery and many excellent future games. For surely, at least in vP terms, he is the best player of all time. Nobody cares or agrees with you. Stop acting as though your opinion on "unbiased elo" is fact. He is just boring troll, trying to argue that 2x2=3 or 2x2=5 depending on race :-) On June 27 2011 07:32 Holgerius wrote:On June 27 2011 04:03 xarthaz wrote:On June 26 2011 23:35 Ermac wrote:I'll miss just about everything about Flash cause I'm deeply in love with him(no gayness yo!) The only positive side of a potential retirement would be that Flash would very probably be considered the greatest of all time period. He absolutely demolished Jaedong when it counted and matched NaDa's record at the age of 18(!!!!) amongst breaking and setting various other incredible records. It would suck for Jaedong though. No matter how many titles he'd win people would always say "yeah, cuz Flash wasn't around anymore" and he'd basically never be able to gain the upper hand in their rivalry ever again. It's hard enough as it is with JD having a clearly "weak" matchup atm. Furthermore there's Bisu. If he gets his shit together in individual leagues he'd probably be the favorite over Jaedong in a BoX. And now enough with the woulds and coulds. God Young Ho will recover, win many more titles and leave a trail of ash in his wake! All hail the God Child! + Show Spoiler +In all seriousness, get well soon Flash! <3 <3 <3 I'm worried about you... =( Again, ELO wise, he is not the greatest. Both Bisu and Jaedong have achieved higher ELO peaks in their niches, balanced to race ELO baseline. To be honest, he is excellent player with great achievements, but lets be realistic, there are facets in which other players have been better. Rofl, ELO is one thing where Flash absolutely destroys all competition. XD Don't even wanna think about Flash retiring. On June 27 2011 05:54 beachbeachy wrote:On June 27 2011 04:03 xarthaz wrote:On June 26 2011 23:35 Ermac wrote:I'll miss just about everything about Flash cause I'm deeply in love with him(no gayness yo!) The only positive side of a potential retirement would be that Flash would very probably be considered the greatest of all time period. He absolutely demolished Jaedong when it counted and matched NaDa's record at the age of 18(!!!!) amongst breaking and setting various other incredible records. It would suck for Jaedong though. No matter how many titles he'd win people would always say "yeah, cuz Flash wasn't around anymore" and he'd basically never be able to gain the upper hand in their rivalry ever again. It's hard enough as it is with JD having a clearly "weak" matchup atm. Furthermore there's Bisu. If he gets his shit together in individual leagues he'd probably be the favorite over Jaedong in a BoX. And now enough with the woulds and coulds. God Young Ho will recover, win many more titles and leave a trail of ash in his wake! All hail the God Child! + Show Spoiler +In all seriousness, get well soon Flash! <3 <3 <3 I'm worried about you... =( Again, ELO wise, he is not the greatest. Both Bisu and Jaedong have achieved higher ELO peaks in their niches, balanced to race ELO baseline. To be honest, he is excellent player with great achievements, but lets be realistic, there are facets in which other players have been better. Flash holds every single ELO record. On June 27 2011 06:13 Brainbag wrote:On June 27 2011 04:03 xarthaz wrote:On June 26 2011 23:35 Ermac wrote:I'll miss just about everything about Flash cause I'm deeply in love with him(no gayness yo!) The only positive side of a potential retirement would be that Flash would very probably be considered the greatest of all time period. He absolutely demolished Jaedong when it counted and matched NaDa's record at the age of 18(!!!!) amongst breaking and setting various other incredible records. It would suck for Jaedong though. No matter how many titles he'd win people would always say "yeah, cuz Flash wasn't around anymore" and he'd basically never be able to gain the upper hand in their rivalry ever again. It's hard enough as it is with JD having a clearly "weak" matchup atm. Furthermore there's Bisu. If he gets his shit together in individual leagues he'd probably be the favorite over Jaedong in a BoX. And now enough with the woulds and coulds. God Young Ho will recover, win many more titles and leave a trail of ash in his wake! All hail the God Child! + Show Spoiler +In all seriousness, get well soon Flash! <3 <3 <3 I'm worried about you... =( Again, ELO wise, he is not the greatest. Both Bisu and Jaedong have achieved higher ELO peaks in their niches, balanced to race ELO baseline. To be honest, he is excellent player with great achievements, but lets be realistic, there are facets in which other players have been better. That can be said about every single player out there who has ever beaten flash. But as a jaedong fan, I must say this. Flash is the most consitent players out there, in terms of winning, and mechanics. He hits a small slump and a wrist injury, and you have come to say Flash is not the greatest ELO wise without proof of anything. Here is your ELO proof + Show Spoiler +And here is Flash's small slump. + Show Spoiler +Now look through all the games he has played, and against whom he has played, and tell me he isnt the most consistent player out there who plays the best already. On June 27 2011 05:12 Sypuku wrote:On June 27 2011 04:03 xarthaz wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On June 26 2011 23:35 Ermac wrote:I'll miss just about everything about Flash cause I'm deeply in love with him(no gayness yo!) The only positive side of a potential retirement would be that Flash would very probably be considered the greatest of all time period. He absolutely demolished Jaedong when it counted and matched NaDa's record at the age of 18(!!!!) amongst breaking and setting various other incredible records. It would suck for Jaedong though. No matter how many titles he'd win people would always say "yeah, cuz Flash wasn't around anymore" and he'd basically never be able to gain the upper hand in their rivalry ever again. It's hard enough as it is with JD having a clearly "weak" matchup atm. Furthermore there's Bisu. If he gets his shit together in individual leagues he'd probably be the favorite over Jaedong in a BoX. And now enough with the woulds and coulds. God Young Ho will recover, win many more titles and leave a trail of ash in his wake! All hail the God Child! + Show Spoiler +In all seriousness, get well soon Flash! <3 <3 <3 I'm worried about you... =( Again, ELO wise, he is not the greatest. Both Bisu and Jaedong have achieved higher ELO peaks in their niches, balanced to race ELO baseline. To be honest, he is excellent player with great achievements, but lets be realistic, there are facets in which other players have been better. LOL. ALL Elo peaks belong to Flash. U just trolling? Or u want to say: Bisu is the better protoss than Flash and Jaedong is the better zerg than Flash? LOL. Yes it is true... But Flash is terran and he is the greatest player ever towering over everybody. The latest criticisms of the concept of average race elo as a describer of matchup bias. Unfortunately they are unsubstantiated, and further elaboration is necessary to show their validity. You are the one trying to prove that "unbiased blah elo blah etc". Seriously, I've read all of your comments regarding the subject and you have a very interesting personal opinion, but no arguments at all to support it. You say it's biased, we ALL say it's not. Have you proven us wrong? nope. You are the one who needs "criticize" our position. One could thing that the graphic in the first post is an argument, but not really. I mean, if Zerg defeated Terran more often, would that make Flash better or worse at TvZ? How? Would that affect his micro, macro, decision making or multitasking? Please, I urge you to think about that before posting your next highly intellectual and polite comment. The bias is the asymmetry in matchup results. You see,matchup being uneven in results implies it being uneven in conditions that lead to results. Assuming equal player base and information asymmetries between races(reasonable assumption, given races all having 30+ active players), there is no other option than matchup bias being the cause of the result asymmetries. As such, the result comparison between races, without accounting for bias, must necessarily be incorrect. This is the premise of the study of matchup biases. And given the conditions i presented, it is necessarily true. Revy> yeah i was thinking about the same thing in bed yesterday and kinda agree - the reason i applied the same bias coefficients in assesment of flash elo peaks was appeal to tradition - given the long standing folk acceptance of the balance
So you are not denying that Flash is the best vZ player ever. Your are saying that the reason he is better is that TvZ is easier.
So, Flash's vZ is the best in world. I'm glad we agree on that.
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On June 24 2011 07:13 Raz0r wrote:
Protoss needs help. When was the last time a freaking PROTOSS won a Starleague?! 3 Years?!?! Even throughout the history of proleague, there are no Protoss Bonjwas, and not enough protoss starleague champions. Zerg and Terran have far more than their share of titles. Some say that Protoss skill ceiling isn't as high as the other races because the nature of their units, while zerg and terran if microed "perfectly" like placing mines and siege tanks in the most perfect positions, then their potential is higher. Why do we not see more Protoss winning? Is it just random chance that we have a disproportionate win rates for the Protoss? By win rates I don't mean the overall winning ratio in regular matches, I'm talking about the results, such as the match for titles.
Looking at results only, Protoss definitely seems underpowered among top-level pros. However, imagine a Protoss player that had Stork's PvT and Bisu's PvZ. Such a player would be likely to have success comparable to Jaedong's, perhaps even Flash's. Maybe it's just a fluke that there is no Protoss of that skill level.
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I think your argument of "T>P>Z>T" should be changed to "T>B>J>T", with "F" completely out of the picture, because he is a clear anomaly. If you know what I mean.
IMO you're confusing player skill with race potential. Honestly, if Flash switched to Protoss he would probably achieve equally insane results. If Bisu switched to Terran, Flash would still consistently roll him over. Flash with his flexible mind has the ability to do just about everything perfectly, which suits the Terran race perfectly; Bisu has an extremely aggressive mindset that fits in neatly to PvZ. Your graph, which basically just says that "at the top ranks, P<Z and T<P", doesn't conclude anything because at this level, player skill matters more than matchup imbalance or race potential.
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On June 28 2011 12:04 holyhalo5 wrote:I think your argument of "T>P>Z>T" should be changed to "T>B>J>T", with "F" completely out of the picture, because he is a clear anomaly. If you know what I mean. IMO you're confusing player skill with race potential. Honestly, if Flash switched to Protoss he would probably achieve equally insane results. If Bisu switched to Terran, Flash would still consistently roll him over. Flash with his flexible mind has the ability to do just about everything perfectly, which suits the Terran race perfectly; Bisu has an extremely aggressive mindset that fits in neatly to PvZ. Your graph, which basically just says that "at the top ranks, P<Z and T<P", doesn't conclude anything because at this level, player skill matters more than matchup imbalance or race potential.
If Flash is so great, then why is it that Jaedong and Bisu have risen higher above the average performance of their races than Flash has? With vZ Being an example. And Jaedong having risen higher above the average than Flash vT. Because comparing with the average (along with the additional premise Revy pointed out) Flash is only the most impressive player in vP matchups.On June 28 2011 11:06 agarangu wrote:Show nested quote +On June 28 2011 10:36 xarthaz wrote:On June 27 2011 14:52 agarangu wrote:On June 27 2011 12:26 xarthaz wrote:On June 27 2011 09:12 Ermac wrote:On June 27 2011 04:03 xarthaz wrote:On June 26 2011 23:35 Ermac wrote:I'll miss just about everything about Flash cause I'm deeply in love with him(no gayness yo!) The only positive side of a potential retirement would be that Flash would very probably be considered the greatest of all time period. He absolutely demolished Jaedong when it counted and matched NaDa's record at the age of 18(!!!!) amongst breaking and setting various other incredible records. It would suck for Jaedong though. No matter how many titles he'd win people would always say "yeah, cuz Flash wasn't around anymore" and he'd basically never be able to gain the upper hand in their rivalry ever again. It's hard enough as it is with JD having a clearly "weak" matchup atm. Furthermore there's Bisu. If he gets his shit together in individual leagues he'd probably be the favorite over Jaedong in a BoX. And now enough with the woulds and coulds. God Young Ho will recover, win many more titles and leave a trail of ash in his wake! All hail the God Child! + Show Spoiler +In all seriousness, get well soon Flash! <3 <3 <3 I'm worried about you... =( Again, ELO wise, he is not the greatest. Both Bisu and Jaedong have achieved higher ELO peaks in their niches, balanced to race ELO baseline. To be honest, he is excellent player with great achievements, but lets be realistic, there are facets in which other players have been better. Lol, you and your "relative ELO". Give me a break... On June 27 2011 09:49 L0thar wrote:
xarthaz:
This is Flash Appreciation Thread. Nobody here is interested in your questionable interpretation of Elo. You made your own thread about it and that's the appropriate place to discuss it further. Coming to an appreciation thread just to say "hey dudes, your favourite player is not that good as you think!" is pretty dick move. On June 27 2011 09:54 Like wrote:On June 27 2011 09:49 L0thar wrote:
xarthaz:
This is Flash Appreciation Thread. Nobody here is interested in your questionable interpretation of Elo. You made your own thread about it and that's the appropriate place to discuss it further. Coming to an appreciation thread just to say "hey dudes, your favourite player is not that good as you think!" is pretty dick move. Thing is, he even was wrong in his statement. On June 27 2011 12:18 GolemMadness wrote:You are partly correct. The error you are making is confusing player skill with final ELO. Yes, in the final choice of RORO flash would be more scary, which ELO describes perfectly. The use of comparing ELOs to average is to normalize results to race biases.
You see, matchup biases exist, it is a fact, implied by the very characterisitics that define the race. Because of that, direct comparison is erroneous. As such,the elimination of race bias through normalization is correct, as it achieves what it is supposed to achieve, comparable values that eliminate race bias.
This is tangential of course. But the reason i brought this point is to bring the flash fans up from the skies back to earth. As you see, Flash too is mortal, he is not best at everything, and vZ performance(Bisu all time highest in unbiased ELO) and vT performance(Jaedong all time highest in unbiased ELO) is the example of the point in question.
With all that in mind though, Cheers to flash and Lets hope for fast recovery and many excellent future games. For surely, at least in vP terms, he is the best player of all time. Nobody cares or agrees with you. Stop acting as though your opinion on "unbiased elo" is fact. On June 27 2011 12:23 Sypuku wrote:On June 27 2011 12:18 GolemMadness wrote:+ Show Spoiler +You are partly correct. The error you are making is confusing player skill with final ELO. Yes, in the final choice of RORO flash would be more scary, which ELO describes perfectly. The use of comparing ELOs to average is to normalize results to race biases.
You see, matchup biases exist, it is a fact, implied by the very characterisitics that define the race. Because of that, direct comparison is erroneous. As such,the elimination of race bias through normalization is correct, as it achieves what it is supposed to achieve, comparable values that eliminate race bias.
This is tangential of course. But the reason i brought this point is to bring the flash fans up from the skies back to earth. As you see, Flash too is mortal, he is not best at everything, and vZ performance(Bisu all time highest in unbiased ELO) and vT performance(Jaedong all time highest in unbiased ELO) is the example of the point in question.
With all that in mind though, Cheers to flash and Lets hope for fast recovery and many excellent future games. For surely, at least in vP terms, he is the best player of all time. Nobody cares or agrees with you. Stop acting as though your opinion on "unbiased elo" is fact. He is just boring troll, trying to argue that 2x2=3 or 2x2=5 depending on race :-) On June 27 2011 07:32 Holgerius wrote:On June 27 2011 04:03 xarthaz wrote:On June 26 2011 23:35 Ermac wrote:I'll miss just about everything about Flash cause I'm deeply in love with him(no gayness yo!) The only positive side of a potential retirement would be that Flash would very probably be considered the greatest of all time period. He absolutely demolished Jaedong when it counted and matched NaDa's record at the age of 18(!!!!) amongst breaking and setting various other incredible records. It would suck for Jaedong though. No matter how many titles he'd win people would always say "yeah, cuz Flash wasn't around anymore" and he'd basically never be able to gain the upper hand in their rivalry ever again. It's hard enough as it is with JD having a clearly "weak" matchup atm. Furthermore there's Bisu. If he gets his shit together in individual leagues he'd probably be the favorite over Jaedong in a BoX. And now enough with the woulds and coulds. God Young Ho will recover, win many more titles and leave a trail of ash in his wake! All hail the God Child! + Show Spoiler +In all seriousness, get well soon Flash! <3 <3 <3 I'm worried about you... =( Again, ELO wise, he is not the greatest. Both Bisu and Jaedong have achieved higher ELO peaks in their niches, balanced to race ELO baseline. To be honest, he is excellent player with great achievements, but lets be realistic, there are facets in which other players have been better. Rofl, ELO is one thing where Flash absolutely destroys all competition. XD Don't even wanna think about Flash retiring. On June 27 2011 05:54 beachbeachy wrote:On June 27 2011 04:03 xarthaz wrote:On June 26 2011 23:35 Ermac wrote:I'll miss just about everything about Flash cause I'm deeply in love with him(no gayness yo!) The only positive side of a potential retirement would be that Flash would very probably be considered the greatest of all time period. He absolutely demolished Jaedong when it counted and matched NaDa's record at the age of 18(!!!!) amongst breaking and setting various other incredible records. It would suck for Jaedong though. No matter how many titles he'd win people would always say "yeah, cuz Flash wasn't around anymore" and he'd basically never be able to gain the upper hand in their rivalry ever again. It's hard enough as it is with JD having a clearly "weak" matchup atm. Furthermore there's Bisu. If he gets his shit together in individual leagues he'd probably be the favorite over Jaedong in a BoX. And now enough with the woulds and coulds. God Young Ho will recover, win many more titles and leave a trail of ash in his wake! All hail the God Child! + Show Spoiler +In all seriousness, get well soon Flash! <3 <3 <3 I'm worried about you... =( Again, ELO wise, he is not the greatest. Both Bisu and Jaedong have achieved higher ELO peaks in their niches, balanced to race ELO baseline. To be honest, he is excellent player with great achievements, but lets be realistic, there are facets in which other players have been better. Flash holds every single ELO record. On June 27 2011 06:13 Brainbag wrote:On June 27 2011 04:03 xarthaz wrote:On June 26 2011 23:35 Ermac wrote:I'll miss just about everything about Flash cause I'm deeply in love with him(no gayness yo!) The only positive side of a potential retirement would be that Flash would very probably be considered the greatest of all time period. He absolutely demolished Jaedong when it counted and matched NaDa's record at the age of 18(!!!!) amongst breaking and setting various other incredible records. It would suck for Jaedong though. No matter how many titles he'd win people would always say "yeah, cuz Flash wasn't around anymore" and he'd basically never be able to gain the upper hand in their rivalry ever again. It's hard enough as it is with JD having a clearly "weak" matchup atm. Furthermore there's Bisu. If he gets his shit together in individual leagues he'd probably be the favorite over Jaedong in a BoX. And now enough with the woulds and coulds. God Young Ho will recover, win many more titles and leave a trail of ash in his wake! All hail the God Child! + Show Spoiler +In all seriousness, get well soon Flash! <3 <3 <3 I'm worried about you... =( Again, ELO wise, he is not the greatest. Both Bisu and Jaedong have achieved higher ELO peaks in their niches, balanced to race ELO baseline. To be honest, he is excellent player with great achievements, but lets be realistic, there are facets in which other players have been better. That can be said about every single player out there who has ever beaten flash. But as a jaedong fan, I must say this. Flash is the most consitent players out there, in terms of winning, and mechanics. He hits a small slump and a wrist injury, and you have come to say Flash is not the greatest ELO wise without proof of anything. Here is your ELO proof + Show Spoiler +And here is Flash's small slump. + Show Spoiler +Now look through all the games he has played, and against whom he has played, and tell me he isnt the most consistent player out there who plays the best already. On June 27 2011 05:12 Sypuku wrote:On June 27 2011 04:03 xarthaz wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On June 26 2011 23:35 Ermac wrote:I'll miss just about everything about Flash cause I'm deeply in love with him(no gayness yo!) The only positive side of a potential retirement would be that Flash would very probably be considered the greatest of all time period. He absolutely demolished Jaedong when it counted and matched NaDa's record at the age of 18(!!!!) amongst breaking and setting various other incredible records. It would suck for Jaedong though. No matter how many titles he'd win people would always say "yeah, cuz Flash wasn't around anymore" and he'd basically never be able to gain the upper hand in their rivalry ever again. It's hard enough as it is with JD having a clearly "weak" matchup atm. Furthermore there's Bisu. If he gets his shit together in individual leagues he'd probably be the favorite over Jaedong in a BoX. And now enough with the woulds and coulds. God Young Ho will recover, win many more titles and leave a trail of ash in his wake! All hail the God Child! + Show Spoiler +In all seriousness, get well soon Flash! <3 <3 <3 I'm worried about you... =( Again, ELO wise, he is not the greatest. Both Bisu and Jaedong have achieved higher ELO peaks in their niches, balanced to race ELO baseline. To be honest, he is excellent player with great achievements, but lets be realistic, there are facets in which other players have been better. LOL. ALL Elo peaks belong to Flash. U just trolling? Or u want to say: Bisu is the better protoss than Flash and Jaedong is the better zerg than Flash? LOL. Yes it is true... But Flash is terran and he is the greatest player ever towering over everybody. The latest criticisms of the concept of average race elo as a describer of matchup bias. Unfortunately they are unsubstantiated, and further elaboration is necessary to show their validity. You are the one trying to prove that "unbiased blah elo blah etc". Seriously, I've read all of your comments regarding the subject and you have a very interesting personal opinion, but no arguments at all to support it. You say it's biased, we ALL say it's not. Have you proven us wrong? nope. You are the one who needs "criticize" our position. One could thing that the graphic in the first post is an argument, but not really. I mean, if Zerg defeated Terran more often, would that make Flash better or worse at TvZ? How? Would that affect his micro, macro, decision making or multitasking? Please, I urge you to think about that before posting your next highly intellectual and polite comment. The bias is the asymmetry in matchup results. You see,matchup being uneven in results implies it being uneven in conditions that lead to results. Assuming equal player base and information asymmetries between races(reasonable assumption, given races all having 30+ active players), there is no other option than matchup bias being the cause of the result asymmetries. As such, the result comparison between races, without accounting for bias, must necessarily be incorrect. This is the premise of the study of matchup biases. And given the conditions i presented, it is necessarily true. Revy> yeah i was thinking about the same thing in bed yesterday and kinda agree - the reason i applied the same bias coefficients in assesment of flash elo peaks was appeal to tradition - given the long standing folk acceptance of the balance So you are not denying that Flash is the best vZ player ever. Your are saying that the reason he is better is that TvZ is easier. So, Flash's vZ is the best in world. I'm glad we agree on that.
Best in results - but given the premise of results being an a proportional function of both skill and bias - the claim of Flash being best skill wise does not follow, given the bias estimation relative to average players' pergormance
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I haven't had time to properly read everything, but there are some (possible) problems:
1) Seems like you are identifying skill with Elo. Which is obviously bad idea, as player skill is much more complex thing than what a pretty simple statistics like Elo tries to capture. One possible problem should be clearer from point 2.
2) You are trying to estimate player skill without the influence of the race he plays, right? But that cannot be done simply by jugling some Elo numbers. Players choose their own race and they do that based on what best suits their playstyle. They choose the race with which they have the best results, the race in which they can reach greatest "skill".
So, if your other assertion are correct (and I'm not saying thery are), you can say, that for example Bisu PvZ is better relatively to others PvZ-ers than Flash TvZ is relatively to others TvZ-ers. But you can't make direct comparison between the vZ skill between these two. What you can say (while still having in mind point 1) is that Flash is, based on Elo, better vZ-er, thanks both to selecting better "tool" (terran) and his skill with it.
3) You are assuming that Elo grows somewhat lineraly, which is not the case. The higher you are, the more you can lose and the less you can gain. If there really is some race bias which should be normalized, it couldn't be simply done on final results. It should be done gradualy, in each game. Then for example JD would gain more points in ZvT and would generaly float on higher Elo, resulting in getting less points for win and losing more points for loss. For Flash, the exact opposite would be true. Just slapping +25 Elo to zergs and -25 to terran is very simplistic approach, which I cannot support here.
4) Don't you find funny that by your analysis the most skiller vP player is terran, vZ player is protoss and vT player is zerg? I'm not saying it proves anything, but if I was doing this statistic, it would get me thinking if the normalization I used wasn't too strong (see point 3 where it could've gone wrong).
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About point 1&2> it appears that according to the model: results being an a proportional function of both skill and bias;
While describing skill as a function may be difficult, that is not relevant to the question in the claims in making. in the question skill is only a parameter of the result function, it is not looked at as a function itself, it is considered a teleological premise and as such rejected from further insight.
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EPT
