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Hm, modeling this could get ugly.
Elo is constructed so that a difference between two players' elo scores of X implies that the stronger player will win 1/(1+10^(-X/400)) percent of the time. Obviously winrate is not linearly proportional to elo difference.
The model *might* be better off regressing:
* predicted winrate for the zerg player, based solely on both players' ELO ratings
* zerg player's actual ELO (protoss elo would be redundant, since it is used to generate the above variable)
rather than:
* Z elo
* P elo
I can't say for certain. Throwing it out there in case the one way blows up!
(if it's useful, TLPD uses a K value of roughly 20)
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On ICCup you can hardly tell what brand of cheese a Z is going to hit you with. You can scout an all-in ling but good luck finding out if he's all-in Hydra. DTs harass is useless anymore. Scourges to deal with Corsairs make early HT drop economic harassment risky...especially considering that you NEED your HT early anyways. Sim city makes timing attacks extremely difficult to pull off. I've always been a P user and my ratio PvZ is bad...so I give Z a try and I'm 2:1 ZvP, 5 Hatch Hydra/Muta no effort...
I don't want to say the match up is imbalanced. Maybe it's the maps, maybe it's the current builds. But right now it's just ridiculous how many directions a Zerg can take the game compared to the one opening a Protoss has, that a Zerg knows the Protoss is always going to go because it's all Protoss can do.
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And yet everytime I try to do cute drone tricks it turns out they're fucking 2gating
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Well, it depends, what rank are you? And if you're doing all the harassment, are you doing it during a battle or just when he's sitting as his bases macroing?
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motbob
United States12546 Posts
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ever play a top notch expanding protoss with carrier/sair/temp/da combo? i'd like to see you play zerg under those circumstances and say zerg dominates toss. The game depends on the circumstances. I am almost a strictly zerg player and a very good one even if i do say so myself. I raise the ranks easily. I know i dominate protoss when they expand slowly. When they expand and harass well, it balances it out. Protoss can overtake the zerg if the zerg isn't careful. If you get into a late game with equal bases, protoss vs zerg is the most balanced matchup after the pvp zvz tvt matchups. If you are a toss and feel like you're getting dominated, you're in the habit of not expanding at the right time to keep up with zerg. The matchup tips either way VERY easily, and that's where you're having troubles. Good luck.
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There are several ways Protoss can play out a Forge FE opening. But it does seem like maps are much more balanced if Protoss has decent alternatives to Forge FE. (And ideally, if there's not an easy spot for lurkers to shoot into your probe lines. It's easier to play if quick lurkers aren't a serious threat.)
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On November 17 2009 11:42 thez wrote:
ever play a top notch expanding protoss with carrier/sair/temp/da combo?
no i can't say i have.
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Braavos36375 Posts
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On December 18 2009 19:58 Hot_Bid wrote:+ Show Spoiler [OSL Ro16] +watch the movie vs zero OSL Ro16 game and you'll understand
seriously so imba!!!
Agreed. I have no idea how the winner won that game.
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Yah, the tables have turned. Protoss are imba!
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Motbob, i hate you for this thread but you are a pretty cool poster and regret your decision so i don't hate you :D.
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On September 25 2009 17:15 barth wrote:
Perhaps its the players, not the match-up?
hahaha I never get tired of how idiotic this comment is
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So... is there a solution to the hideous rape that is muta/scourge? Six corsairs are clearly insufficient, as Zerg can match the +1 air attack with +1 air carapace (and then beat it with +2, because Protoss's +2 requires a Fleet Beacon) and have complete air control if he sends in a few mutas first to tank for his scourge.
Does Protoss just have to wait for 12-18 corsairs if the opponent fights for air dominance?
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On December 18 2009 20:24 lazz wrote:Show nested quote +On September 25 2009 17:15 barth wrote:
Perhaps its the players, not the match-up? hahaha I never get tired of how idiotic this comment is
I would have a go at how stupid YOU are if i didn't know you troll 75% of your posts  .
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On December 18 2009 20:40 Severedevil wrote:
So... is there a solution to the hideous rape that is muta/scourge? Six corsairs are clearly insufficient, as Zerg can match the +1 air attack with +1 air carapace (and then beat it with +2, because Protoss's +2 requires a Fleet Beacon) and have complete air control if he sends in a few mutas first to tank for his scourge.
Does Protoss just have to wait for 12-18 corsairs if the opponent fights for air dominance?
Click T on there mutalisks with a high templar, or better yet click M(or R, don't know the hotkey) on 2 templars and click the middle of the mutas.
They complement corsairs pretty well.
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On December 18 2009 19:58 Hot_Bid wrote:+ Show Spoiler [OSL Ro16] +watch the movie vs zero OSL Ro16 game and you'll understand
seriously so imba!!!
ye >____> 1a2a3a4a win... so sad. Oh and movie had 170 apm that game ROFL?
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EPT
