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How I made $10,000 in 2 weeks betting on SC2 - Page 3

Blogs > droppanda
Post a Reply
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As with all forms of gambling, betting on progames will yield winners and losers. Don't forget that you could easily be that loser.
NeedsmoreCELLTECH
Profile Blog Joined November 2011
Netherlands1242 Posts
December 15 2011 12:59 GMT
#41
I just got a really cool idea; TL powered voting account. A few guys lay in like 20 bucks and then TL consensus decides the vote. Could be cool to see if the 'ant' brain is effective or not.
Get huge or die mirin | Diamond on LoL
Switchy
Profile Joined June 2011
343 Posts
December 15 2011 13:00 GMT
#42
The way you seem to handle it OP makes me think it was just dumb luck. I mean making a poll who to put $1000 on? I've done football betting for a while and it was quite hard work to get just 103-104% ROI.
Just quit now while you are ahead or change you system, its very tempting to go for big stakes but in the long rung careful and balanced play will be more effective.
nam nam
Profile Joined June 2010
Sweden4672 Posts
December 15 2011 13:01 GMT
#43
I don't bet because I usually get tilted when I lose a fairly large bet and then try to compensate in the next. Not a very good tactic as it turns out.

I do occasionally bet on finals and such just to have that little extra on the line, not really to make money.
Itsmedudeman
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States19229 Posts
December 15 2011 13:02 GMT
#44
Just a question. When you put down 2k+ on a match how much are you shitting your pants during the games?
nam nam
Profile Joined June 2010
Sweden4672 Posts
December 15 2011 13:03 GMT
#45
On December 15 2011 22:00 Switchy wrote:
The way you seem to handle it OP makes me think it was just dumb luck. I mean making a poll who to put $1000 on? I've done football betting for a while and it was quite hard work to get just 103-104% ROI.
Just quit now while you are ahead or change you system, its very tempting to go for big stakes but in the long rung careful and balanced play will be more effective.


I'm not saying the op has the best of systems but I'd guess the ones setting the odds for sc2 are less knowledgable about the game relative to the ones betting than for a major sport like football so it wouldn't surprise me if you can have more success betting on sc2 from that perspective.
Geo.Rion
Profile Blog Joined October 2008
7377 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-12-15 13:07:42
December 15 2011 13:04 GMT
#46
i'd put it on MMA, because i usually bet against zergs, though never done it with real money, kudos to you for making a profit from it
btw you should bold, as it is very true: only play with money you can afford to lose, it's the first bankroll management rule in anything like this
"Protoss is a joke" Liquid`Jinro Okt.1. 2011
Zeon0
Profile Joined September 2010
Austria2995 Posts
December 15 2011 13:06 GMT
#47
On December 15 2011 21:49 TiTanIum_ wrote:
It´s a zero sum game. If you won 10k someone else lost 10k, and if everybody betted correctly you would have gotten nothing.

no, someone else lost 11k, cause pinnacle also makes profit


but whos cares who loses? If you are sure you can win, then do it! Its the same as poker, there are masses of losing players, but also quite a few winning players.

Blizz Cup Final Spoiler
+ Show Spoiler +
imho it depends how good the odds are for DRG, MMA is the favorite, but DRG can easily take 3 maps or win.
Hater of MKP since GSL Open Season 2 | Fanboy of: NesTea Stephano IdrA DIMAGA MorroW ret DongRaeGu Snute SaSe Mvp ThorZaIN DeMusliM
MrCon
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
France29748 Posts
December 15 2011 13:06 GMT
#48
On December 15 2011 22:03 nam nam wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 15 2011 22:00 Switchy wrote:
The way you seem to handle it OP makes me think it was just dumb luck. I mean making a poll who to put $1000 on? I've done football betting for a while and it was quite hard work to get just 103-104% ROI.
Just quit now while you are ahead or change you system, its very tempting to go for big stakes but in the long rung careful and balanced play will be more effective.


I'm not saying the op has the best of systems but I'd guess the ones setting the odds for sc2 are less knowledgable about the game relative to the ones betting than for a major sport like football so it wouldn't surprise me if you can have more success betting on sc2 from that perspective.

It's exactly this. Altho I say and believe that without knowing who is bookmaking the ESPORTS odds. Perhaps he's a famous TL member ^^
MonsterBeast
Profile Joined October 2011
Canada193 Posts
December 15 2011 13:06 GMT
#49
Oh, sick I didn't know this existed, I may make this my job. We'll see how this goes.
It is what it is.
Hider
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Denmark9433 Posts
December 15 2011 13:06 GMT
#50
On December 15 2011 22:03 nam nam wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 15 2011 22:00 Switchy wrote:
The way you seem to handle it OP makes me think it was just dumb luck. I mean making a poll who to put $1000 on? I've done football betting for a while and it was quite hard work to get just 103-104% ROI.
Just quit now while you are ahead or change you system, its very tempting to go for big stakes but in the long rung careful and balanced play will be more effective.


I'm not saying the op has the best of systems but I'd guess the ones setting the odds for sc2 are less knowledgable about the game relative to the ones betting than for a major sport like football so it wouldn't surprise me if you can have more success betting on sc2 from that perspective.


I kinda looked at the odds from Pinnacle, and I think they were decent. They are prob much better at setting odds than the average viewer of GSL is, and if you combine that with the fact that they charging money for you to bet, I think you have to be pretty good at analyzing games to beat them. As I said Im pretyt convinced OP is a long term loser.
Cham
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
797 Posts
December 15 2011 13:06 GMT
#51
On December 15 2011 21:50 droppanda wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 15 2011 21:40 Cham wrote:
Thanks for spoiling last night's Blizzard cup results as I'm watching the vods :/


Ah, really sorry dude, I added spoiler tags now ..



No problem, thanks for being considerate :D
AIOL!
Profile Joined January 2011
France962 Posts
December 15 2011 13:07 GMT
#52
The best bet of the century was Stephano vs Hero at blizzcup, for those who watched Stephano win 90% of his ZvP on the ladder and with an odd at like 2.6, verry good affair
Stephano!!!!!!/Nerchio/Mana/Hasuobs/Grubby/Kas/Tarson/Sarens/Goody/BeastyCury
Switchy
Profile Joined June 2011
343 Posts
December 15 2011 13:08 GMT
#53
On December 15 2011 22:03 nam nam wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 15 2011 22:00 Switchy wrote:
The way you seem to handle it OP makes me think it was just dumb luck. I mean making a poll who to put $1000 on? I've done football betting for a while and it was quite hard work to get just 103-104% ROI.
Just quit now while you are ahead or change you system, its very tempting to go for big stakes but in the long rung careful and balanced play will be more effective.


I'm not saying the op has the best of systems but I'd guess the ones setting the odds for sc2 are less knowledgable about the game relative to the ones betting than for a major sport like football so it wouldn't surprise me if you can have more success betting on sc2 from that perspective.



Yes you are right in that, the bookmaker is more likely to lose because they probably dont have the same flawless systems as they use for football for example..

But bets like 1600 dollars on 1.15 odds are incredibly reckless. Those are never good bets unless you include them in combos.
Geo.Rion
Profile Blog Joined October 2008
7377 Posts
December 15 2011 13:08 GMT
#54
On December 15 2011 22:07 AIOL! wrote:
The best bet of the century was Stephano vs Hero at blizzcup, for those who watched Stephano win 90% of his ZvP on the ladder and with an odd at like 2.6, verry good affair

holy shit, they gave 2.6 for that Stephano v Hero match? You make me consider quitting poker and getting into betting, lol
"Protoss is a joke" Liquid`Jinro Okt.1. 2011
Soma.bokforlag
Profile Joined February 2011
Sweden448 Posts
December 15 2011 13:10 GMT
#55
i work for a betting company and this thread is potentially harmful. dont trust people saying stuff like this guys :/

you can find values on pinnacle and other bookies, if you really want to win in the long run you have to bet at different bookies though, and since only pinny has a decent amount of games its impossible

until SC2 becomes bigger, just bet small amounts for fun (thats my advice)
JonSki
Profile Joined April 2011
United Kingdom126 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-12-15 13:14:24
December 15 2011 13:12 GMT
#56
On December 15 2011 21:49 TiTanIum_ wrote:
It´s a zero sum game. If you won 10k someone else lost 10k, and if everybody betted correctly you would have gotten nothing.


Dude really........... thats obvious but when in thr history of any sport has everyone bet on the winner, and how do you know someone else lost 10,000 i dont think only 2 people have been betting take sometime to think before posting.

Got to be MMA for me even though DRG has had some mad wins :D

EDIT: Then again i dont know how pinnacle works wether you bet against each other im just going by other major betting agencies (william hill ect)
"Keep St. George in my heart keep me English"
Hider
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Denmark9433 Posts
December 15 2011 13:14 GMT
#57
On December 15 2011 22:08 Switchy wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 15 2011 22:03 nam nam wrote:
On December 15 2011 22:00 Switchy wrote:
The way you seem to handle it OP makes me think it was just dumb luck. I mean making a poll who to put $1000 on? I've done football betting for a while and it was quite hard work to get just 103-104% ROI.
Just quit now while you are ahead or change you system, its very tempting to go for big stakes but in the long rung careful and balanced play will be more effective.


I'm not saying the op has the best of systems but I'd guess the ones setting the odds for sc2 are less knowledgable about the game relative to the ones betting than for a major sport like football so it wouldn't surprise me if you can have more success betting on sc2 from that perspective.



Yes you are right in that, the bookmaker is more likely to lose because they probably dont have the same flawless systems as they use for football for example..

But bets like 1600 dollars on 1.15 odds are incredibly reckless. Those are never good bets unless you include them in combos.


You dont understand how odds works.
droppanda
Profile Joined December 2011
Australia176 Posts
December 15 2011 13:15 GMT
#58
On December 15 2011 21:53 Hider wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 15 2011 21:49 TiTanIum_ wrote:
It´s a zero sum game. If you won 10k someone else lost 10k, and if everybody betted correctly you would have gotten nothing.


No its a not a zero sum game. You actually lose in the lon run with average skills.

While i definitely do think that its possible to get a ROI of about 105% (long term) betting on sc2 if your really good, i dont think op is a winner long term. I have been working with odds my self, and it seems to me that the logic of op is way to simpe, and he is clearly a guy who probably doesn't understand the difference between long-term winnings short term, or basic terms such as bet value.

When that is said, you can probably come up with general rules, aka foreigners are overrated. Some players like nestea is overrated. But for me to bet according to those rules you will need much more testing.


Yes, of course you are not guaranteed to win by following some rules, you need to use your own judgement and wits. I have followed starcraft since the days of BW and have seen almost every single GSL match. You get a feel after a while about the trends and you start learning from mistakes.

If you go over my betting history, it's difficult to see the matches I DON'T bet on.
That's where you make money. By avoiding the risky matches, you can see the majority of the sums are positive. Before, I used to bet on every match that ran, but I learn now to stay away from certain ones. There is no rule you can follow to do this consistently, it is something you pick up over time. I went through over $100,000 worth of wagers placed this year, and have consistently built up bankrolls close to $10,000 from $500 starting amounts. Now I am learning when NOT to bet and have managed to not lose my bank.

I have withdrawn everything except for $1.5k, which I plan to use most of it on the finals. It's the last bet of the year

Don't make statements like I do not know the difference between long terms winnings and basics such as bet value. I have been a betting man for a long time, over 10 years now. Is that long enough a term for you? I have made over 30k on tennis betting this year and all time, am up close to 150k. Sure there are some years I am down, but in the long run, I am up...

I have a full time job, am successful and I and like to punt on the side. Is it hard to believe you can profit from betting? I love starcraft and find it much more exciting than tennis to watch and have started to spend my time on starcraft matches rather than tennis. So yes, Starcraft betting is a fairly new avenue for me, but I have been doing it for longer than most, even probably you.

Hider
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Denmark9433 Posts
December 15 2011 13:18 GMT
#59
On December 15 2011 22:15 droppanda wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 15 2011 21:53 Hider wrote:
On December 15 2011 21:49 TiTanIum_ wrote:
It´s a zero sum game. If you won 10k someone else lost 10k, and if everybody betted correctly you would have gotten nothing.


No its a not a zero sum game. You actually lose in the lon run with average skills.

While i definitely do think that its possible to get a ROI of about 105% (long term) betting on sc2 if your really good, i dont think op is a winner long term. I have been working with odds my self, and it seems to me that the logic of op is way to simpe, and he is clearly a guy who probably doesn't understand the difference between long-term winnings short term, or basic terms such as bet value.

When that is said, you can probably come up with general rules, aka foreigners are overrated. Some players like nestea is overrated. But for me to bet according to those rules you will need much more testing.


Yes, of course you are not guaranteed to win by following some rules, you need to use your own judgement and wits. I have followed starcraft since the days of BW and have seen almost every single GSL match. You get a feel after a while about the trends and you start learning from mistakes.

If you go over my betting history, it's difficult to see the matches I DON'T bet on.
That's where you make money. By avoiding the risky matches, you can see the majority of the sums are positive. Before, I used to bet on every match that ran, but I learn now to stay away from certain ones. There is no rule you can follow to do this consistently, it is something you pick up over time. I went through over $100,000 worth of wagers placed this year, and have consistently built up bankrolls close to $10,000 from $500 starting amounts. Now I am learning when NOT to bet and have managed to not lose my bank.

I have withdrawn everything except for $1.5k, which I plan to use most of it on the finals. It's the last bet of the year

Don't make statements like I do not know the difference between long terms winnings and basics such as bet value. I have been a betting man for a long time, over 10 years now. Is that long enough a term for you? I have made over 30k on tennis betting this year and all time, am up close to 150k. Sure there are some years I am down, but in the long run, I am up...

I have a full time job, am successful and I and like to punt on the side. Is it hard to believe you can profit from betting? I love starcraft and find it much more exciting than tennis to watch and have started to spend my time on starcraft matches rather than tennis. So yes, Starcraft betting is a fairly new avenue for me, but I have been doing it for longer than most, even probably you.



What is your roi?
How many bets?
Standard deviation?
Dariusz
Profile Joined May 2011
Poland657 Posts
December 15 2011 13:20 GMT
#60
Untill there's a bonjwa in sc2 i will not bet a single penny on it.
Coming from a poker player.
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