Disclaimer - I don't condone reckless gambling so please only play with what you can afford to lose. Putting some money on sport can make the games that much more exciting, and you should really only be doing it for fun. I am lucky to have a full time job and am a successful at what I do. I place bets on the side and do not make a living off of this!
This is not my occupation nor to encourage people to be as reckless. I'm only posting my experience, I have not had a negative year betting on starcraft, and I have been doing so since BW. But every bet I place is not done with the intention of making money as a priority. I watch the games live and enjoy having money on the players.
Some of you may or may not know that you can place bets on all the major SC2 tournaments and almost every GSL match at pinnaclesports.
This is the last 2 weeks of my pinnacle sports log showing every bet, loss, and win, I made since the start of this month (yes, sorry guys, I am the one skewing odds single handedly on some matches ;p )
Total profit $9,574.24 Initial deposit I started with this month was $1,000. Since the beginning of the year however, I was down close to $3,000 (lost over $2,000 on that GSL final where MMA beat MVP...), so I am up about $7,000 for the year.
I have definitely improved my skills when it comes to betting on starcraft, although a lot of it common sense with a good serving of luck thrown in!
Some general rules I follow are:
Always bet against foreigners - Now, this is not to say that foreigners cannot beat Koreans, but it is a fact that they are way more inconsistent. They may be completely dominant in 1 tournament, and drop out in the first round for the next. For this reason alone, the odds on them are usually better than they should be - and make a good value bet.
Don't bet on every match - The ones you are not sure of, stay away from (or put small bets only). The ones that have extremely poor returns (1.25 and lower) you need to be careful of and I sometimes refrain from betting on those, unless you are positive it will be a one sided affair.
don't click below if you haven't watched blizzard cup semis + Show Spoiler +
The handicap bets are sometimes the best option. Instead of taking risks for small returns on the favorite, consider risking less money on the underdog by betting on the handicap (+1.5). Like can be seen on the game that ended just now in the blizzard cup between MMA and MVP. I thought it was a fairly safe bet at 1.8 that MMA could take two games off MVP.
Luck plays a big part - sometimes you get lucky and sometimes you don't, I know it's played a large part on my winning streak these past 2 weeks You may have noticed I bet against Naniwa to win (lucky for me, unlucky for the others). I am very against his actions, because I want starcraft to be taken seriously as a sport. Pinnacle has helped it move into a positive direction by offering odds on the games, but that is put at risk by things like what Naniwa did. Imagine how all those that put their money on Naniwa would have felt when they watched what he did.l.. in any case, there is enough talk about this as is so I will leave it there.
But regarding luck, You can see I lost some large amounts on the way up (marineking vs darkforce...), but I also made some pretty risky and large bets that I won. In the WCG, I would have continued to place bets on marineking and supernova, but luckily for me, pinnacle did not offer betting lines for the games they lost in their subsequent matchups! If they did, I would probably have lost between 1-2k there...
Don't look too much into statistics - Historical win statistics for a player don't mean much, their recent performance is much more telling. But players can rise and fall as fast as the tides (MC, Marineking, even MVP for a little bit). Also, map statistics can be taken with a grain of salt. Until there are hundreds of games played on them, the sample size is not good enough to really say much.
This next bit is important - Lastly, only play with what you can afford to lose. I don't want to encourage anyone out there to gamble recklessly. If you aren't prepared to lose it, then don't place that bet!
I have been betting on SC since odds were offered at pinnacle and have lost my fair share! But it adds even more excitement to the game, and sometimes, I bet with my heart instead of my head. I don't mind though, I often place bets I know I will probably lose, but I did so because I wanted to cheer for a particular player. I've stopped doing that now and will bet against who I am rooting for. That way, it doesn't matter who wins, I either get some money or my player wins, either way I'm happy haha.
Wishing all my fellow punters luck for the new year, post if you have stories about your success with starcraft betting (or non-success if the case may be...). I'll end with poll, although I reserve the right not to follow the outcome ;p
don't click below if you haven't watched blizzard cup semis
On December 15 2011 21:38 darkness wrote: 3rd option: neither
Betting is too risky and possibly addictive.
wow Buzzkill
MMA definitely.
Yeah, better to be that type of person compared to the one who has negative income. That guy might have won 10k, but what about other people or his future bets?
I don't see the Artosis rule: if Artosis says someone is going to win, bet on his opponent. Seriously, that guy is funny as hell but he has voodoo blood in his veins.
It's a rollercoaster, you can stop when you're at a peak but if you continue eventually you'll fall back down. Almost nobody has an infinite amount of luck, quit while you're ahead unless you know for absolute certain that you can consistently turn a profit, 99.999% of people can't.
On December 15 2011 21:39 HALFKNOT wrote: Another golden rule of starcraft betting: if 2 players of the same skill match and you want to bet, bet against the Z.
This is actually very true.... and have noticed the trend. It is way more often than not that even a slightly better zerg player can lose to terran. This may change in future, but is also a good thing to follow for now..
On December 15 2011 21:38 darkness wrote: 3rd option: neither
Betting is too risky and possibly addictive.
wow Buzzkill
MMA definitely.
Yeah, better to be that type of person compared to the one who has negative income. That guy might have won 10k, but what about other people or his future bets?
No one said you don't lose money betting. It's part of the game.
Is it legal to bet on progaming? Does gsl knows and recognizes betting as proper system? I highly doubt that they will like betting because of bad impression came from last year's incident.
On December 15 2011 21:44 MavivaM wrote: I don't see the Artosis rule: if Artosis says someone is going to win, bet on his opponent. Seriously, that guy is funny as hell but he has voodoo blood in his veins.
I think Artosis definitely skews the odds on Nestea, and even sometimes I'm tempted to back Nestea, when I should be betting against him....
On December 15 2011 21:49 TiTanIum_ wrote: It´s a zero sum game. If you won 10k someone else lost 10k, and if everybody betted correctly you would have gotten nothing.
No its a not a zero sum game. You actually lose in the lon run with average skills.
While i definitely do think that its possible to get a ROI of about 105% (long term) betting on sc2 if your really good, i dont think op is a winner long term. I have been working with odds my self, and it seems to me that the logic of op is way to simpe, and he is clearly a guy who probably doesn't understand the difference between long-term winnings short term, or basic terms such as bet value.
When that is said, you can probably come up with general rules, aka foreigners are overrated. Some players like nestea is overrated. But for me to bet according to those rules you will need much more testing.
On December 15 2011 21:49 EvilSky wrote: Yes but how much did you lose?
I stated it in the post. I was down just under 3k. So I am way up right now. Last year I was up about 1.5 k for the year. This year is just under 7k so it is a good year.
On December 15 2011 21:38 darkness wrote: 3rd option: neither
Betting is too risky and possibly addictive.
wow Buzzkill
MMA definitely.
Yeah, better to be that type of person compared to the one who has negative income. That guy might have won 10k, but what about other people or his future bets?
Eh, as the op say, if you can't afford it don't bet.
good luck withdrawing your money though. multiple friends of mine have won up to 20-50k an have been unable to withdraw it. i myself have had problems even dealing with small amounts of cash.
p.s my friends were betting on counter strike 1.6 not sc2
On December 15 2011 21:49 Tanatos wrote: Is it legal to bet on progaming? Does gsl knows and recognizes betting as proper system? I highly doubt that they will like betting because of bad impression came from last year's incident.
I believe us Americans can not bet on SC matches because it would be online gambling, which is illegal for some stupid reason...
I quit during Dreamhack. However, from what I remember, that E-sports menu appears only if there are matches to bet on. It seems they haven't added MMA vs DRG yet. Keep checking once in a while.
Well done ! Betting on sc2 is also the way I make most of my income (before that if was poker (small stakes) and recreative sports betting so I was used to manage a bankroll). SC2 is way more profitable than any other sports, as you can have an edge over the bookmakers if you follow the players closely (especially the GSL players) Foreigns tournaments like MLG are also very profitable because there are few upsets in korean vs foreign matches as you said.
I just got a really cool idea; TL powered voting account. A few guys lay in like 20 bucks and then TL consensus decides the vote. Could be cool to see if the 'ant' brain is effective or not.
The way you seem to handle it OP makes me think it was just dumb luck. I mean making a poll who to put $1000 on? I've done football betting for a while and it was quite hard work to get just 103-104% ROI. Just quit now while you are ahead or change you system, its very tempting to go for big stakes but in the long rung careful and balanced play will be more effective.
I don't bet because I usually get tilted when I lose a fairly large bet and then try to compensate in the next. Not a very good tactic as it turns out.
I do occasionally bet on finals and such just to have that little extra on the line, not really to make money.
On December 15 2011 22:00 Switchy wrote: The way you seem to handle it OP makes me think it was just dumb luck. I mean making a poll who to put $1000 on? I've done football betting for a while and it was quite hard work to get just 103-104% ROI. Just quit now while you are ahead or change you system, its very tempting to go for big stakes but in the long rung careful and balanced play will be more effective.
I'm not saying the op has the best of systems but I'd guess the ones setting the odds for sc2 are less knowledgable about the game relative to the ones betting than for a major sport like football so it wouldn't surprise me if you can have more success betting on sc2 from that perspective.
i'd put it on MMA, because i usually bet against zergs, though never done it with real money, kudos to you for making a profit from it btw you should bold, as it is very true: only play with money you can afford to lose, it's the first bankroll management rule in anything like this
On December 15 2011 21:49 TiTanIum_ wrote: It´s a zero sum game. If you won 10k someone else lost 10k, and if everybody betted correctly you would have gotten nothing.
no, someone else lost 11k, cause pinnacle also makes profit
but whos cares who loses? If you are sure you can win, then do it! Its the same as poker, there are masses of losing players, but also quite a few winning players.
On December 15 2011 22:00 Switchy wrote: The way you seem to handle it OP makes me think it was just dumb luck. I mean making a poll who to put $1000 on? I've done football betting for a while and it was quite hard work to get just 103-104% ROI. Just quit now while you are ahead or change you system, its very tempting to go for big stakes but in the long rung careful and balanced play will be more effective.
I'm not saying the op has the best of systems but I'd guess the ones setting the odds for sc2 are less knowledgable about the game relative to the ones betting than for a major sport like football so it wouldn't surprise me if you can have more success betting on sc2 from that perspective.
It's exactly this. Altho I say and believe that without knowing who is bookmaking the ESPORTS odds. Perhaps he's a famous TL member ^^
On December 15 2011 22:00 Switchy wrote: The way you seem to handle it OP makes me think it was just dumb luck. I mean making a poll who to put $1000 on? I've done football betting for a while and it was quite hard work to get just 103-104% ROI. Just quit now while you are ahead or change you system, its very tempting to go for big stakes but in the long rung careful and balanced play will be more effective.
I'm not saying the op has the best of systems but I'd guess the ones setting the odds for sc2 are less knowledgable about the game relative to the ones betting than for a major sport like football so it wouldn't surprise me if you can have more success betting on sc2 from that perspective.
I kinda looked at the odds from Pinnacle, and I think they were decent. They are prob much better at setting odds than the average viewer of GSL is, and if you combine that with the fact that they charging money for you to bet, I think you have to be pretty good at analyzing games to beat them. As I said Im pretyt convinced OP is a long term loser.
The best bet of the century was Stephano vs Hero at blizzcup, for those who watched Stephano win 90% of his ZvP on the ladder and with an odd at like 2.6, verry good affair
On December 15 2011 22:00 Switchy wrote: The way you seem to handle it OP makes me think it was just dumb luck. I mean making a poll who to put $1000 on? I've done football betting for a while and it was quite hard work to get just 103-104% ROI. Just quit now while you are ahead or change you system, its very tempting to go for big stakes but in the long rung careful and balanced play will be more effective.
I'm not saying the op has the best of systems but I'd guess the ones setting the odds for sc2 are less knowledgable about the game relative to the ones betting than for a major sport like football so it wouldn't surprise me if you can have more success betting on sc2 from that perspective.
Yes you are right in that, the bookmaker is more likely to lose because they probably dont have the same flawless systems as they use for football for example..
But bets like 1600 dollars on 1.15 odds are incredibly reckless. Those are never good bets unless you include them in combos.
On December 15 2011 22:07 AIOL! wrote: The best bet of the century was Stephano vs Hero at blizzcup, for those who watched Stephano win 90% of his ZvP on the ladder and with an odd at like 2.6, verry good affair
holy shit, they gave 2.6 for that Stephano v Hero match? You make me consider quitting poker and getting into betting, lol
i work for a betting company and this thread is potentially harmful. dont trust people saying stuff like this guys :/
you can find values on pinnacle and other bookies, if you really want to win in the long run you have to bet at different bookies though, and since only pinny has a decent amount of games its impossible
until SC2 becomes bigger, just bet small amounts for fun (thats my advice)
On December 15 2011 21:49 TiTanIum_ wrote: It´s a zero sum game. If you won 10k someone else lost 10k, and if everybody betted correctly you would have gotten nothing.
Dude really........... thats obvious but when in thr history of any sport has everyone bet on the winner, and how do you know someone else lost 10,000 i dont think only 2 people have been betting take sometime to think before posting.
Got to be MMA for me even though DRG has had some mad wins :D
EDIT: Then again i dont know how pinnacle works wether you bet against each other im just going by other major betting agencies (william hill ect)
On December 15 2011 22:00 Switchy wrote: The way you seem to handle it OP makes me think it was just dumb luck. I mean making a poll who to put $1000 on? I've done football betting for a while and it was quite hard work to get just 103-104% ROI. Just quit now while you are ahead or change you system, its very tempting to go for big stakes but in the long rung careful and balanced play will be more effective.
I'm not saying the op has the best of systems but I'd guess the ones setting the odds for sc2 are less knowledgable about the game relative to the ones betting than for a major sport like football so it wouldn't surprise me if you can have more success betting on sc2 from that perspective.
Yes you are right in that, the bookmaker is more likely to lose because they probably dont have the same flawless systems as they use for football for example..
But bets like 1600 dollars on 1.15 odds are incredibly reckless. Those are never good bets unless you include them in combos.
On December 15 2011 21:49 TiTanIum_ wrote: It´s a zero sum game. If you won 10k someone else lost 10k, and if everybody betted correctly you would have gotten nothing.
No its a not a zero sum game. You actually lose in the lon run with average skills.
While i definitely do think that its possible to get a ROI of about 105% (long term) betting on sc2 if your really good, i dont think op is a winner long term. I have been working with odds my self, and it seems to me that the logic of op is way to simpe, and he is clearly a guy who probably doesn't understand the difference between long-term winnings short term, or basic terms such as bet value.
When that is said, you can probably come up with general rules, aka foreigners are overrated. Some players like nestea is overrated. But for me to bet according to those rules you will need much more testing.
Yes, of course you are not guaranteed to win by following some rules, you need to use your own judgement and wits. I have followed starcraft since the days of BW and have seen almost every single GSL match. You get a feel after a while about the trends and you start learning from mistakes.
If you go over my betting history, it's difficult to see the matches I DON'T bet on. That's where you make money. By avoiding the risky matches, you can see the majority of the sums are positive. Before, I used to bet on every match that ran, but I learn now to stay away from certain ones. There is no rule you can follow to do this consistently, it is something you pick up over time. I went through over $100,000 worth of wagers placed this year, and have consistently built up bankrolls close to $10,000 from $500 starting amounts. Now I am learning when NOT to bet and have managed to not lose my bank.
I have withdrawn everything except for $1.5k, which I plan to use most of it on the finals. It's the last bet of the year
Don't make statements like I do not know the difference between long terms winnings and basics such as bet value. I have been a betting man for a long time, over 10 years now. Is that long enough a term for you? I have made over 30k on tennis betting this year and all time, am up close to 150k. Sure there are some years I am down, but in the long run, I am up...
I have a full time job, am successful and I and like to punt on the side. Is it hard to believe you can profit from betting? I love starcraft and find it much more exciting than tennis to watch and have started to spend my time on starcraft matches rather than tennis. So yes, Starcraft betting is a fairly new avenue for me, but I have been doing it for longer than most, even probably you.
On December 15 2011 21:49 TiTanIum_ wrote: It´s a zero sum game. If you won 10k someone else lost 10k, and if everybody betted correctly you would have gotten nothing.
No its a not a zero sum game. You actually lose in the lon run with average skills.
While i definitely do think that its possible to get a ROI of about 105% (long term) betting on sc2 if your really good, i dont think op is a winner long term. I have been working with odds my self, and it seems to me that the logic of op is way to simpe, and he is clearly a guy who probably doesn't understand the difference between long-term winnings short term, or basic terms such as bet value.
When that is said, you can probably come up with general rules, aka foreigners are overrated. Some players like nestea is overrated. But for me to bet according to those rules you will need much more testing.
Yes, of course you are not guaranteed to win by following some rules, you need to use your own judgement and wits. I have followed starcraft since the days of BW and have seen almost every single GSL match. You get a feel after a while about the trends and you start learning from mistakes.
If you go over my betting history, it's difficult to see the matches I DON'T bet on. That's where you make money. By avoiding the risky matches, you can see the majority of the sums are positive. Before, I used to bet on every match that ran, but I learn now to stay away from certain ones. There is no rule you can follow to do this consistently, it is something you pick up over time. I went through over $100,000 worth of wagers placed this year, and have consistently built up bankrolls close to $10,000 from $500 starting amounts. Now I am learning when NOT to bet and have managed to not lose my bank.
I have withdrawn everything except for $1.5k, which I plan to use most of it on the finals. It's the last bet of the year
Don't make statements like I do not know the difference between long terms winnings and basics such as bet value. I have been a betting man for a long time, over 10 years now. Is that long enough a term for you? I have made over 30k on tennis betting this year and all time, am up close to 150k. Sure there are some years I am down, but in the long run, I am up...
I have a full time job, am successful and I and like to punt on the side. Is it hard to believe you can profit from betting? I love starcraft and find it much more exciting than tennis to watch and have started to spend my time on starcraft matches rather than tennis. So yes, Starcraft betting is a fairly new avenue for me, but I have been doing it for longer than most, even probably you.
What is your roi? How many bets? Standard deviation?
On December 15 2011 22:20 Dariusz wrote: Untill there's a bonjwa in sc2 i will not bet a single penny on it. Coming from a poker player.
That makes no sense whatsoever?
Maybe he means until the game is figured out enough that one person can be significantly better than others and shows that the game is very skill based he won't bet? I am not sure, trying to make sense of it.
Personally, betting is too big of a pitfall for me. I know I won't be able to resist its lure once I start doing it. It's nice to hear you've had success with it yourself. I hope you're able to keep a level head and know when to pull out.
If I had to bet, I would bet on MMA. Why? Because of the SlayerS factor. It's no secret that they have a lot of good terrans & some good zergs (if Coca still participates in practices). It's also no secret that they work closely together to help each other for upcoming matches. They also have specific strategy coaches who analyse the opponent's style of play and think of ways to use that information against them. MMA has also shown he has a wide variety of playstyles to throw his opponents off. Obviously other factors come into play like DRG's current ZvT style & his practice environment. The maps also play a huge role. However, I still think MMA has the edge. My prediction is 4-1/4-2 for MMA.
On December 15 2011 22:20 Dariusz wrote: Untill there's a bonjwa in sc2 i will not bet a single penny on it. Coming from a poker player.
That makes no sense whatsoever?
So does betting on sports as volatile as current SCII. The point is not to wait for bonjwa to bet on him but to wait for him as an indicator of stable game.
On December 15 2011 22:00 Switchy wrote: The way you seem to handle it OP makes me think it was just dumb luck. I mean making a poll who to put $1000 on? I've done football betting for a while and it was quite hard work to get just 103-104% ROI. Just quit now while you are ahead or change you system, its very tempting to go for big stakes but in the long rung careful and balanced play will be more effective.
No, it is not dumb luck. You can not place over $30k in bets and come up $10k on top because of dumb luck.
The odds on sc2 contain plenty of value bets because the market is relatively new, and is also often skewed by people betting with their hearts (I mentioned how I used to in my opening post). You will often find the odds on foreigners much higher than they should be because a lot of people place bets on them simply because they want them to win, or overestimate their chances of winning. If you are smart, you can exploit this and turn a profit. Yes, as I mentioned, luck plays a part, but there are plenty of other things that you can learn that will tip the odds in your favor.
I'm not saying I have some sort of amazing starcraft betting skills. But I have been watching the game for many many years now (since the days Klazart made his first commentary), and have a better understanding of the game than most people that put money on the game. Add this to the fact that I have some cash on the side to spare because I make a decent living, and you can get results.
The small ROI you talk about do not apply to such a small market like starcraft betting. When there are value bets, they many many more times than what would be considered a value bet in other sports. This is why you can expect things like 200% ROI. If starcraft betting ever became mainstream and the masses took it up, then yes, this figure would drastically drop, but at the moment, you have a huge advantage if you are on top of the game.
I glad you made so much money, but I must caution people against gambling. It may be an easy way to win money, but its just as easy (if not easier) to lose money.
On December 15 2011 22:00 Switchy wrote: The way you seem to handle it OP makes me think it was just dumb luck. I mean making a poll who to put $1000 on? I've done football betting for a while and it was quite hard work to get just 103-104% ROI. Just quit now while you are ahead or change you system, its very tempting to go for big stakes but in the long rung careful and balanced play will be more effective.
I'm not saying the op has the best of systems but I'd guess the ones setting the odds for sc2 are less knowledgable about the game relative to the ones betting than for a major sport like football so it wouldn't surprise me if you can have more success betting on sc2 from that perspective.
Yes you are right in that, the bookmaker is more likely to lose because they probably dont have the same flawless systems as they use for football for example..
But bets like 1600 dollars on 1.15 odds are incredibly reckless. Those are never good bets unless you include them in combos.
You dont understand how odds works.
Enlighten me then. Are you aware that 1.15 odds mean you need get 7/8 right to at least break even? So place 8 of those bets, get at least 7 right and you still only have a marginal profit. Not a very good strategy to go for such low odds.
I'm not an expert of bookmaking but if the rules of the blankroll gestion are same in poker and in bookmaking then you are a bad bookmaker and i really warn other people to do like you. If your banroll is multiplicated by 10 in two weeks that means you take HUGE risks and you commits too much in the odds you take.
NEVER bet most than 1/20 of your bankroll is a minimum; 1/50 is normal and 1/100 if you wanna be safe. This is the most basic rule in every beting games, if you wanna continue in this way and be safe against bad runs i really hope you follow these advices
On December 15 2011 21:44 XenoX101 wrote: It's a rollercoaster, you can stop when you're at a peak but if you continue eventually you'll fall back down. Almost nobody has an infinite amount of luck, quit while you're ahead unless you know for absolute certain that you can consistently turn a profit, 99.999% of people can't.
Implying that someone has infinity luck, or that it even is an element that you can have more or less of =P?
Betting can be fun, just like alcohol, just don't overdo it.
Edit -Hmm shouldn't compare betting to alcohol, since people can actually earn money of betting if they are good at it and in that case it isn't harmful, but that's a small minority
On December 15 2011 22:28 mTwRINE wrote: Betting on Favs, more than 1/10th bankroll and stuff like that? Have fun when luck runs out.
Yes, I have experienced it before and I am prepared to lose that amount. Again, I'm not preaching myself to be some betting expert, a lot of it is luck as you can see in the betting history I posted. I posted to show my success, which can be attributed to common sense, a good understanding of the game, and luck.
You know the difference between betting on the Fav with more than 1/10th of bankroll in this sport compared to another? You get can gets odds on the favorite at 1.3 when they should be at 1.1. That's the difference.
So while some of those may seem like reckless bets, they are value (i admit there are a few in there that are plain reckless and I got lucky, but there aren't actually that many ...)
there is no such thing as betting to win, no matter how logical and clear mind you are. You are gambling and a lot of it is luck. Your up 10k now, but eventually you'll be down 10K. People who gamble share and tell others when they are up, but hide when they are down. Casinos and lottery/betting organizations are not charities, they are not giving out three money. They make money off people who think they are gambling gods.
On December 15 2011 22:39 Apolex wrote: there is no such thing as betting to win, no matter how logical and clear mind you are. You are gambling and a lot of it is luck. Your up 10k now, but eventually you'll be down 10K. People who gamble share and tell others when they are up, but hide when they are down. Casinos and lottery/betting organizations are not charities, they are not giving out three money. They make money off people who think they are gambling gods.
"there is no such thing as betting to win, no matter how logical and clear mind you are."
There definitely is. If oyu only bet when there is apo tively expected return, and your analysis are correct, your a long term winner. However OP kinda doesn't make betvalue analysis. I mean he uses phrases like "i am going to bet on the same guy the whole tournament).
But regarding luck, You can see I lost some large amounts on the way up (marineking vs darkforce...), but I also made some pretty risky and large bets that I won. In the WCG, I would have continued to place bets on marineking and supernova, but luckily for me, pinnacle did not offer betting lines for the games they lost in their subsequent matchups! If they did, I would probably have lost between 1-2k there...
It was a nice story and all but betting like 20-30% of your BR on a couple of matches is just silly... obviously if this money doesn't matter to you at all then by all means but i just hope you or other people dont get the illusion that you're doing the right things and you're skilled, which might be the case but this is just busto waiting to happen.
On December 15 2011 22:20 Dariusz wrote: Untill there's a bonjwa in sc2 i will not bet a single penny on it. Coming from a poker player.
I don't understand either part of your post. Either you're planning on betting on the bonjwa which means you will gain almost nothing when you win. OR You're planning on betting on the massive underdog which means you probably won't ever win.
And you're not a "poker player" you might play poker, but let's get real you're no big shot.
On December 15 2011 21:38 darkness wrote: 3rd option: neither
Betting is too risky and possibly addictive.
wow Buzzkill
MMA definitely.
Yeah, better to be that type of person compared to the one who has negative income. That guy might have won 10k, but what about other people or his future bets?
Yes, if you can't control your gambling habit and have continued losing results meaning you bet too much and can't stop betting then perhaps it is too "risky and possibly addictive." For those who have common sense however and know how to limit themselves how is it different than you going to play a game of golf at an expensive course once a month? $400 a round vs $400 gambling allowance in one situation you have a 0% chance of making any money unless of course you're betting on the golf game itself lololol
I don't know why with your stance you would have even bothered posting in this thread.
----- AT OP I'm not exactly sure why you made this thread at all. If one were to agree with your betting methods and everyone used them then eventually the lines get pushed and you start making less on your bets. So, is this some sort of bragging post? Advertisement for a scam gambling website? I don't know, but it really doesn't make sense to me either way.
lol why do u keep giving advices on bankroll management, etc. even if that's pure luck and eventually he'll have a negative ROI, he doesn't seem to care
On December 15 2011 22:39 Apolex wrote: there is no such thing as betting to win, no matter how logical and clear mind you are. You are gambling and a lot of it is luck. Your up 10k now, but eventually you'll be down 10K. People who gamble share and tell others when they are up, but hide when they are down. Casinos and lottery/betting organizations are not charities, they are not giving out three money. They make money off people who think they are gambling gods.
Nonsense. Some gambling is always self-defeating such as roulette, but sportsbetting can be profitable over a large sample if you know wtf you are doing
On December 15 2011 22:44 Elefes wrote: lol why do u keep giving advices on bankroll management, etc. even if that's pure luck and eventually he'll have a negative ROI, he doesn't seem to care
If he follows br management from now on, the he might be able to prolong his illusion of him being able to profitable in betting on esports.
Look I updated the main post to make it clearer and not give people the wrong idea
----- This is not my occupation nor to encourage people to be as reckless. I'm only posting my experience, I have not had a negative year betting on starcraft, and I have been doing so since BW. But every bet I place is not done with the intention of making money as a priority. I watch the games live and enjoy having money on the players. ---
Nobody thinks he just made this post so people would bet by the 'rules' he made, so he gets better ods while not following his so called rules?
/conspiracy theory
No on a serious note: Congratulations on a job wel done, but imo i don't know how responsible it is to advocate gambling in a community like this: a lot of people are probably not even of legal betting age here. There are always people who think they can handle it, but will tilt when they start losing. That's why i always am against advocating gambling.
TL;DR: Grats on your 10K, but people dont fall for the hype now. . please!
On December 15 2011 22:50 RogerX wrote: Hahahahaha, introductory to gambling in pro-gaming. It just doesn't feel right, im very against gambling in all forms.
Was something like this existent in BW?
xlbet.com, dutch based site, ran for quite a long time. It had a maximum bet limit and had decent odds. The cool thing about Starcraft betting (currently and in the past) is in my opinion extra factors you can take into advantage if you have knowledge such as maps. However some of the factors people are saying as rules they follow are a bit too vague to be useful.
The OP seemed just lucky, it doesn't sound like a solid system at all. Example, saying stuff like always bet against foreigners is unhelpful completely. Considering they are likely to have the higher odds in some cases picking smart choices of foreigners could infact be a better choice, considering SC2 volatility.
Edit: infact personally i wouldn't advise on betting on SC2 at all (outside of just plain fun) unless the odds are particularly favourable, it seems less likely to have an advantage than BW betting did. In my opinion at least.
----- AT OP I'm not exactly sure why you made this thread at all. If one were to agree with your betting methods and everyone used them then eventually the lines get pushed and you start making less on your bets. So, is this some sort of bragging post? Advertisement for a scam gambling website? I don't know, but it really doesn't make sense to me either way.
I'm not betting on SC2 to make money. All punts I make, I can afford to lose and do so for fun. I know a lot of people probably don't know you could place bets on SC2 matches, so just wanted to let people know, along with bragging about my huge winning streak ;p
I have been a betting man for a long time, and was super excited when I first learnt about being able to place bets on BW matches, as I am also a huge starcraft fan. So it doesn't bother me one bit if the odds get skewed either which way. I had to make a few edits to the original post to make it clear that I am not condoning this a serious way to make money.
Just want the sport I love to keep growing, I enjoy the matches thoroughly win or lose (was very happy for MMA and the fan reaction even though I blew 2k of my bankroll on that match, which btw to all of those making excuses for MVP about him being tired - all excuses! MVP underestimated an extremely well prepared MMA. That's why he lost full stop.)
all i read was brag brag brag i made lots of money and can afford to lose tons hahaha laugh laugh laugh and spoil some stuff without a warning, that is still fresh for tons of people that don't have time to watch it live.
But the op is good at spamming and getting attention, by making a thread instead of spamming the blizzard cup thread. I know how i call such people ^.~
I dunno, on the one hand, betting is cool and fun, on the other hand, I'm not sure how the individual leagues/tournaments feel about this. On the other other hand, when I opened this thread, I wondered whether you worked for the company you plug in the OP seeing as how you mention them in like almost 20% of your posts.
Oh look, the thread is filled with jealous people pasting stuff they read from free poker guides. Bankroll management might work like "don't bet more than 5% of your bankroll" but if you have $10k on a site that's not necessarily your bankroll. If you are ready to deposit $20k more if you lose that then put $1k on a match by all means. You can make money long-term as long as the odds are badly chosen like they are now. Example: you could get about 2.93 on MMA over MVP today. As long as the betting site stays profitable or making only a small loss they can keep offering bets. It brings people in to bet on the other sports which are more profitable for the booker.
Here's another rule that I recommend: If you bet against a terran in GSL, make sure you get really good odds.
----- AT OP I'm not exactly sure why you made this thread at all. If one were to agree with your betting methods and everyone used them then eventually the lines get pushed and you start making less on your bets. So, is this some sort of bragging post? Advertisement for a scam gambling website? I don't know, but it really doesn't make sense to me either way.
I'm not betting on SC2 to make money. All punts I make, I can afford to lose and do so for fun. I know a lot of people probably don't know you could place bets on SC2 matches, so just wanted to let people know, along with bragging about my huge winning streak ;p
I have been a betting man for a long time, and was super excited when I first learnt about being able to place bets on BW matches, as I am also a huge starcraft fan. So it doesn't bother me one bit if the odds get skewed either which way. I had to make a few edits to the original post to make it clear that I am not condoning this a serious way to make money.
Just want the sport I love to keep growing, I enjoy the matches thoroughly win or lose (was very happy for MMA and the fan reaction even though I blew 2k of my bankroll on that match, which btw to all of those making excuses for MVP about him being tired - all excuses! MVP underestimated an extremely well prepared MMA. That's why he lost full stop.)
Actually in their last meet I think MMA beat MVP. Could be wrong and atm don't have time to look it up. Interesting that your bet with zero care it actually then makes little sense to be betting in the first place. I play hold-em pretty well, but the risk even though I play well provides me with the adrenaline rush that fuels my playing. I am still confused on the whole, but I accept that one could probably not care about the results despite being invested in them.
On December 15 2011 23:12 caradoc wrote: I dunno, on the one hand, betting is cool and fun, on the other hand, I'm not sure how the individual leagues/tournaments feel about this. On the other other hand, when I opened this thread, I wondered whether you worked for the company you plug in the OP seeing as how you mention them in like almost 20% of your posts.
I was really expecting a referral link to be honest, i was pleasantly surprised it was not that at all!
In the pdf file you have games like brown(never heard of) vs Losira. You bet 50$ on Brown(the underdog) he miraculously wins and you win .. 40 ? If you bet on something that has under 50% chances to win shouldn't you win more than you risk ?
I think the betting sites get a good chunk of the prize money .. so if i was to bet i think it would be more fun to do it against some friends .. that way the money stay "in family" Or even better one guy estimates the right odds for players and then the other picks side. Strategy !
Why do people always have to come and make stupid comments like 'hur hur you can't bet to win'.. as if Starcraft is like roulette or something and completely unpredictable.
Btw MMA convincingly beat MVP in the most important series they played and it wasn't even that long ago.. 2.93 was GREAT odds.
On December 15 2011 23:16 DarkSider wrote: Am i missing something ?
In the pdf file you have games like brown(never heard of) vs Losira. You bet 50$ on Brown(the underdog) he miraculously wins and you win .. 40 ? If you bet on something that has under 50% chances to win shouldn't you win more than you risk ?
I think the betting sites get a good chunk of the prize money .. so if i was to bet i think it would be more fun to do it against some friends .. that way the money stay "in family" Or even better one guy estimates the right odds for players and then the other picks side. Strategy !
Well losirA was NOT doing that well lately, and brown came up pretty easy through the first rounds of code A if i am correctly, so not that big a shock if you ask me.
Kekekeke! Good job man, I've actually been betting on sc games as well and I've set a monthy allowance for myself. Just started recently though and my allowance is just a few hundred bucks but I will up it to a few k as soon as I figure out a more systematic way to win. Might as well make money on your hobby right? Time to pick up old dusty college books on inductive probability and time to pick up more books on betting theory. P.S. Keep an eye out for the liquibetters who consistently place top 10 .
On December 15 2011 21:39 HALFKNOT wrote: Another golden rule of starcraft betting: if 2 players of the same skill match and you want to bet, bet against the Z.
On December 15 2011 23:16 DarkSider wrote: Am i missing something ?
In the pdf file you have games like brown(never heard of) vs Losira. You bet 50$ on Brown(the underdog) he miraculously wins and you win .. 40 ? If you bet on something that has under 50% chances to win shouldn't you win more than you risk ?
I think the betting sites get a good chunk of the prize money .. so if i was to bet i think it would be more fun to do it against some friends .. that way the money stay "in family" Or even better one guy estimates the right odds for players and then the other picks side. Strategy !
I actually got $150 on brown (there is another $100 on the page above that). But you can see next to his name, it's at +1.5. That means I bet that brown could take at least 1 game out of a bo3. This is why the odds are lower. If I have bet for brown to take the bo3 series, then the odds would be something like 2.6 (just a guess, can't recall exactly what it was), which means you would win 2.6 times your wager.
Also, for todays matches on MMA vs MVP. I put $450 on MMA at +1.5 handicap. So that means that I will win unless MVP can beat him 3-0 or 3-1 (Won at least 2 games more).
On December 15 2011 21:39 HALFKNOT wrote: Another golden rule of starcraft betting: if 2 players of the same skill match and you want to bet, bet against the Z.
Good for you that you can afford to lose the money you bet. Good for you that you make money on SC2 betting. Who cares if people call you stupid, you are not enticing anyone to bet. Why do people fucking hate so much?
I think you are doing what ever the fuck you want and you are happy that way... And isn't that the dream?
On December 15 2011 21:49 Tanatos wrote: Is it legal to bet on progaming? Does gsl knows and recognizes betting as proper system? I highly doubt that they will like betting because of bad impression came from last year's incident.
I have been betting on SC since odds were offered at pinnacle and have lost my fair share! But it adds even more excitement to the game, and sometimes, I bet with my heart instead of my head. I don't mind though, I often place bets I know I will probably lose, but I did so because I wanted to cheer for a particular player.
Yeah, betting 1-2k on a match, you'll go broke quickly. Saying that luck plays a big part is probably one of the more stupid things I've heard in regards to sports betting. If you think luck has anything to do with your success you're bound to go busto.
Good luck, Pinnacle will cherish with all the noobs trying to get into SC2 Betting. I've done it for ~6 months and made a few grand (starting with 100EUR) but just yesterday I cashed out all of my winnings. It's not worth my time and it can get really depressing when you lose large bets, something the OP is apparently advocating. If you wanna make money do something sustainable, get a job, but don't try to make SC2 betting profitable, the market is too small, there's not enough games to bet on to take it seriously, the only sportsbook is Pinnacle. If you wanna bet for fun, sure go for it, but in terms of making money it's one of the worst wastes of times you can imagine. Remember that for every big winner, there's many many losers, big and small, and those won't publicly broadcast their experience.
Also I hate the title, you didn't make 10 grand in 2 weeks, it took you a year to hit that random streak of luck and win a couple of games in a row, don't deceive people by making this statistical anomaly sound like a repeatable experience.
i started with 100€ was up about 250€ lost about 150€ then on that one dreamhack where elfi beat nada and the pros were complaining about too small desks etc. lot of upsets and then i lost my last 100€ on qxc´s gsl allkill
On December 15 2011 23:44 R3m3mb3rM3 wrote: i started with 100€ was up about 250€ lost about 150€ then on that one dreamhack where elfi beat nada and the pros were complaining about too small desks etc. lot of upsets and then i lost my last 100€ on qxc´s gsl allkill
yeah goodbye betting ^^
Wooh, just imagine you'd bet QXC's streak right, i bet he had amazing odds!
On December 15 2011 23:13 Teddyman wrote: Oh look, the thread is filled with jealous people pasting stuff they read from free poker guides. Bankroll management might work like "don't bet more than 5% of your bankroll" but if you have $10k on a site that's not necessarily your bankroll. If you are ready to deposit $20k more if you lose that then put $1k on a match by all means. You can make money long-term as long as the odds are badly chosen like they are now. Example: you could get about 2.93 on MMA over MVP today. As long as the betting site stays profitable or making only a small loss they can keep offering bets. It brings people in to bet on the other sports which are more profitable for the booker.
Here's another rule that I recommend: If you bet against a terran in GSL, make sure you get really good odds.
On December 15 2011 23:44 R3m3mb3rM3 wrote: i started with 100€ was up about 250€ lost about 150€ then on that one dreamhack where elfi beat nada and the pros were complaining about too small desks etc. lot of upsets and then i lost my last 100€ on qxc´s gsl allkill
yeah goodbye betting ^^
yeah exactly,
i'm not saying it's impossible to consistently make money at this (DarkForce is the best counter example [although he has his swings too ;o]) but if you aren't in some way deeply integrated into the scene, taking the time out of your day to pursue SC2 betting as a means of making money is just a terrible decision. If you want to get into sports betting pick something where you don't sometimes have to wait a WHOLE WEEK to get any games to bet on and where there's more than 1 sportsbook so you can at least compare lines and don't have to operate around the huge margins of just 1 sportsbook.
On December 15 2011 21:38 darkness wrote: 3rd option: neither
Betting is too risky and possibly addictive.
Dont be stupid and preachy plz.
On December 15 2011 22:20 Dariusz wrote: Untill there's a bonjwa in sc2 i will not bet a single penny on it. Coming from a poker player.
That makes no sense whatsoever?
So does betting on sports as volatile as current SCII. The point is not to wait for bonjwa to bet on him but to wait for him as an indicator of stable game.
I bet (lol) that you can find real world sports that statistically is equal or more volatile than sc2 atm. Also consider that the win-% of certain sc2 players are much higher than you'd get for all teams in some leagues in real world sports. If you are smart about your bets I don't see how sc2 would be more "dangerous" to bet on than a lot of other stuff.
I don't get the poll - it always depends most what are the given odds. I never really bet, but if I would, I could bet on something quite unlikely, if I think it's not as unlikely as the odds suggest. Value bets for the win, in the long run. Also, congrats man.
edit: basically, the poll should rather be worded as "who do you think will win", because the question who to bet on, depends entirely on the odds.
On December 15 2011 23:55 Josri wrote: Sucks that we cant use pinnacle sports here in the netherlands ;(
Really? Crap, was planning to make an account after reading this thread. I bet I could make a killing with this tbh.
Niche-sports are often great for betting, since the betting-lines tend to be less close to perfect. Early years of MMA were awesome and kickboxing can still provide great lines.
The max bet in pinn is limited to $250 at a time and every bet of that size moves the line/odds substantially so if you bet 4 x $250 the odds on the player you are betting on is going to decrease alot and subsequently increase alot on the other player. So let me know when you bet and I will take a value bet on the other player
Those asking if Pinnacle are safe to use need not worry. They are one biggest bookies in the world.
On December 15 2011 21:49 TiTanIum_ wrote: It´s a zero sum game. If you won 10k someone else lost 10k, and if everybody betted correctly you would have gotten nothing.
On December 16 2011 00:23 ItchyLegs wrote: a question that remains unanswered - how were your experiences cashing out? or anyone who has used pinnacle - cash out stories, let's hear 'em.
As I have just said they are totally safe. They are one of the industry leaders and the only problems you will have with cashing out is that you have to prove your ID i.e. you will have to send scans of a passport and cards you use there. I have used them for over 7 years, never had a problem or heard of anyone having a problem. I currently have about $50k there...
I could never do this. I'm soooo terrible at predicting matches. I gave up on liquibet a long time ago...well, also because I don't want to jinx someone I like by voting for them. But that's just me.
I wanted to try to bet a little bit of cash to make games a little more interersting (betting like 50$ a month or something like that, nothing significant), but unfortunately due to some stupid law you can't register on this site as a French citizen... I could put a false country, but I guess it would prevent me from cashing out. Does any french player know a good place where I could bet on esport?
nothing to do with Esports, but my boss use to bet on NFL, NBA, MLB games all the time. He always made profit off of it, it was just a sideline cash making gig. The funny part about it is that teams WILL slack off on purpose at times. For example, if the lakers are whipping the new jersey nets ass they would start sending out their bench because they know they won the game. For people that are betting on that game though they risk losing the bet. Example: Lakers winning by 8 points. You can't win by 8 points if you got sorry players like Luke Walton on the court.
Never played the betting game with SC2, but are there situations where you bet like MVP beats Nestea 4-2 or something like that?
On December 15 2011 22:25 Telcontar wrote: I hope you're able to keep a level head and know when to pull out .
I don't get the handicap thing. This finals for an example.
MATCH HANDICAP MONEY LINE Sat 12/17 2201 DongRaeGu +1.5 1.556 2.220 12:30 AM 2202 MMA -1.5 2.530 1.699 Sat 12/17 2201 DongRaeGu -1.5 2.930 12:30 AM 2202 MMA +1.5 1.435
How does handicap work? Can someone explain each handicap and pay out?
On December 16 2011 08:31 CryingPoo wrote: I don't get the handicap thing. This finals for an example.
MATCH HANDICAP MONEY LINE Sat 12/17 2201 DongRaeGu +1.5 1.556 2.220 12:30 AM 2202 MMA -1.5 2.530 1.699 Sat 12/17 2201 DongRaeGu -1.5 2.930 12:30 AM 2202 MMA +1.5 1.435
How does handicap work? Can someone explain each handicap and pay out?
Explained very simply:
You're looking at the number of maps won. You wan't your player to end up with the most maps.
That means that DRG +1,5 only needs to win 2 maps to have more maps than his opponent can have at the end of the match (in a bo5).
At the most, MMA will get 3 maps.
DRG will have 2 maps +1,5 maps from the handicap = 3,5.
Conversely, if you bet -1,5, DRG can at the most get 3 maps -1,5 maps = 1,5 maps.
In other words, MMA can only win 1 map before DRG gets to 3 maps, or he will end up with more maps than DRG at the end of the match.
According to the TLPD data, I believe that it indicates that MMA would have a 59.7% chance of winning a Bo1 between the two. Based on that, plus my gut feeling, this series ought to at least go to a 6th game (I think it's a Bo7), but basically, you should only bet on DRG if you think that he will lose 4-3 or win.
I noticed that many Americans are very against betting and see it as something really dangerous and addictive... Is gambling completely against the law everywhere except Vegas in US? Cause that might explain a lot.
I'm not making a judgment call i just find it so interesting that a lot of Americans don't have a problem with smoking weed, but have a problem with betting, and in Sweden its pretty much the exact opposite.
On December 16 2011 08:31 CryingPoo wrote: I don't get the handicap thing. This finals for an example.
MATCH HANDICAP MONEY LINE Sat 12/17 2201 DongRaeGu +1.5 1.556 2.220 12:30 AM 2202 MMA -1.5 2.530 1.699 Sat 12/17 2201 DongRaeGu -1.5 2.930 12:30 AM 2202 MMA +1.5 1.435
How does handicap work? Can someone explain each handicap and pay out?
Explained very simply:
You're looking at the number of maps won. You wan't your player to end up with the most maps.
That means that DRG +1,5 only needs to win 2 maps to have more maps than his opponent can have at the end of the match (in a bo5).
At the most, MMA will get 3 maps.
DRG will have 2 maps +1,5 maps from the handicap = 3,5.
Conversely, if you bet -1,5, DRG can at the most get 3 maps -1,5 maps = 1,5 maps.
In other words, MMA can only win 1 map before DRG gets to 3 maps, or he will end up with more maps than DRG at the end of the match.
I hope that makes sense.
Would you mind explaining -1.5 part again? I thought the finals were BO7?
On December 16 2011 08:44 aderum wrote: I noticed that many Americans are very against betting and see it as something really dangerous and addictive... Is gambling completely against the law everywhere except Vegas in US? Cause that might explain a lot.
I'm not making a judgment call i just find it so interesting that a lot of Americans don't have a problem with smoking weed, but have a problem with betting, and in Sweden its pretty much the exact opposite.
Cultural differences is pretty fascinating!
Generally, in the US, gambling is legal is 4 places (as far as I know): 1. Las Vegas 2. Atlantic City 3. On water (such as the Michigan Lake Casino boats) 4. On Indian Reservations
On December 16 2011 08:44 aderum wrote: I noticed that many Americans are very against betting and see it as something really dangerous and addictive... Is gambling completely against the law everywhere except Vegas in US? Cause that might explain a lot.
I'm not making a judgment call i just find it so interesting that a lot of Americans don't have a problem with smoking weed, but have a problem with betting, and in Sweden its pretty much the exact opposite.
Cultural differences is pretty fascinating!
Gambling is incredibly addicting to those cursed with addictive personalities. It has ruined a couple of my friends' lives and I have a family member who still struggles with it. Insensitive people with no knowledge of the nature of addiction would say "just stop gambling"; for these unfortunates, that's like telling a junkie "just stop using smack bro".
I just stay away from it period. I realize not everyone has a problem with it but it's not worth it to me.
On December 16 2011 08:44 aderum wrote: I noticed that many Americans are very against betting and see it as something really dangerous and addictive... Is gambling completely against the law everywhere except Vegas in US? Cause that might explain a lot.
I'm not making a judgment call i just find it so interesting that a lot of Americans don't have a problem with smoking weed, but have a problem with betting, and in Sweden its pretty much the exact opposite.
Cultural differences is pretty fascinating!
Probably a cultural thing. I guess when you get brought up thinking god is reality, you will be religious when you get older. If you get brought up being constantly told gambling is bad and that you cant beat the bookmaker, you will probably keep believing.
On December 16 2011 08:44 aderum wrote: I noticed that many Americans are very against betting and see it as something really dangerous and addictive... Is gambling completely against the law everywhere except Vegas in US? Cause that might explain a lot.
I'm not making a judgment call i just find it so interesting that a lot of Americans don't have a problem with smoking weed, but have a problem with betting, and in Sweden its pretty much the exact opposite.
Cultural differences is pretty fascinating!
Generally, in the US, gambling is legal is 4 places (as far as I know): 1. Las Vegas 2. Atlantic City 3. On water (such as the Michigan Lake Casino boats) 4. On Indian Reservations
Gambling is allowed throughout the entire state of Nevada. In other states, beyond the Indian casinos, there are some municipalities where gambling has been allowed by local ordinances; some "riverboat casinos" have moved on land. There's also racetracks, OTBs, sports betting, lotteries, etc.
Conservative states with anti-gambling laws eventually got tired of AC, Vegas, and the Indians getting all the tourist dollars, so now everyone wants in on taxing gambling revenue.
Can you realy make bets on sc matches? That realy suprises me as it seems wide open to fraud, seeing how badly pro starcraft is regulated (look at naniwa probe rush for example) Could think of manny possible ways pro players could profit from this in a big way.
On December 16 2011 08:31 CryingPoo wrote: I don't get the handicap thing. This finals for an example.
MATCH HANDICAP MONEY LINE Sat 12/17 2201 DongRaeGu +1.5 1.556 2.220 12:30 AM 2202 MMA -1.5 2.530 1.699 Sat 12/17 2201 DongRaeGu -1.5 2.930 12:30 AM 2202 MMA +1.5 1.435
How does handicap work? Can someone explain each handicap and pay out?
Explained very simply:
You're looking at the number of maps won. You wan't your player to end up with the most maps.
That means that DRG +1,5 only needs to win 2 maps to have more maps than his opponent can have at the end of the match (in a bo5).
At the most, MMA will get 3 maps.
DRG will have 2 maps +1,5 maps from the handicap = 3,5.
Conversely, if you bet -1,5, DRG can at the most get 3 maps -1,5 maps = 1,5 maps.
In other words, MMA can only win 1 map before DRG gets to 3 maps, or he will end up with more maps than DRG at the end of the match.
I hope that makes sense.
Would you mind explaining -1.5 part again? I thought the finals were BO7?
Ah ok, I didn't know it was bo7. In that case, you wanna be counting to 4 maps, which is what player needs to win.
If you decide to to play -1,5 on DRG, what you are saying is, that you think he will get the four maps (and thus win the maych) before MMA gets more than 2 maps.
In other words, you think DRG is a strong favorite.
The way to check it is this:
With -1,5 DRG can at the max get:
4 maps (if he wins the match) - 1,5 map (from the handicap) = 2,5 maps.
Remember, you want your player to have the most maps at the end of the match.
That means, that MMA can at the most get 2 maps before DRG gets 4 maps.
If MMA gets 3 or more maps, he will necessarily end up with a higher map-score than DRG:
3-4 maps (MMA) > 2,5 maps (DRG with handicap).
It can be a bit tricky to wrap your head around at first, but after a short while it comes naturally.
On December 16 2011 08:44 aderum wrote: I noticed that many Americans are very against betting and see it as something really dangerous and addictive... Is gambling completely against the law everywhere except Vegas in US? Cause that might explain a lot.
I'm not making a judgment call i just find it so interesting that a lot of Americans don't have a problem with smoking weed, but have a problem with betting, and in Sweden its pretty much the exact opposite.
Cultural differences is pretty fascinating!
Gambling is incredibly addicting to those cursed with addictive personalities. It has ruined a couple of my friends' lives and I have a family member who still struggles with it. Insensitive people with no knowledge of the nature of addiction would say "just stop gambling"; for these unfortunates, that's like telling a junkie "just stop using smack bro".
I just stay away from it period. I realize not everyone has a problem with it but it's not worth it to me.
This is very true, but this is also true about drugs(weed).. I dont now what your stance is one the matter but its pretty much the same thing. But this is off-topic so nvm.
I have had a family member in deep dept to bad people b/c of gambling so i know just how bad it can go, but i still dont mind it being legal here.. It usually works out just fine.
On December 16 2011 08:31 CryingPoo wrote: I don't get the handicap thing. This finals for an example.
MATCH HANDICAP MONEY LINE Sat 12/17 2201 DongRaeGu +1.5 1.556 2.220 12:30 AM 2202 MMA -1.5 2.530 1.699 Sat 12/17 2201 DongRaeGu -1.5 2.930 12:30 AM 2202 MMA +1.5 1.435
How does handicap work? Can someone explain each handicap and pay out?
Explained very simply:
You're looking at the number of maps won. You wan't your player to end up with the most maps.
That means that DRG +1,5 only needs to win 2 maps to have more maps than his opponent can have at the end of the match (in a bo5).
At the most, MMA will get 3 maps.
DRG will have 2 maps +1,5 maps from the handicap = 3,5.
Conversely, if you bet -1,5, DRG can at the most get 3 maps -1,5 maps = 1,5 maps.
In other words, MMA can only win 1 map before DRG gets to 3 maps, or he will end up with more maps than DRG at the end of the match.
I hope that makes sense.
Would you mind explaining -1.5 part again? I thought the finals were BO7?
Ah ok, I didn't know it was bo7. In that case, you wanna be counting to 4 maps, which is what player needs to win.
If you decide to to play -1,5 on DRG, what you are saying is, that you think he will get the four maps (and thus win the maych) before MMA gets more than 2 maps.
In other words, you think DRG is a strong favorite.
The way to check it is this:
With -1,5 DRG can at the max get:
4 maps (if he wins the match) - 1,5 map (from the handicap) = 2,5 maps.
Remember, you want your player to have the most maps at the end of the match.
That means, that MMA can at the most get 2 maps before DRG gets 4 maps.
If MMA gets 3 or more maps, he will necessarily end up with a higher map-score than DRG:
3-4 maps (MMA) > 2,5 maps (DRG with handicap).
It can be a bit tricky to wrap your head around at first, but after a short while it comes naturally.
So to sum it up..
+1.5 = You bet on a player if you think a player is capable of winning 2 games out of 7. (If this is the case what about BO3 and BO5?)
-1.5 = You bet on a player if you think that the opponent of the player you put money on cannot take 2 games out of 7. (The same question, how will this change if it's BO3 and BO5?)
And why is it? 1.5 not 2?
Sorry I am a noob at this betting thing and am just very curious before making a bet for the first time.
i find gambling to be quite fun when done in moderation. really spices up the events. it's really unfortunate that some people have those addicting personalities coz they really are missing out on the fun side. I've been to bars where they have those slot machines and these old women who just spends endless amounts of coins on it and poking at a button all day long. it's really quite tragic
On December 16 2011 08:44 aderum wrote: I noticed that many Americans are very against betting and see it as something really dangerous and addictive... Is gambling completely against the law everywhere except Vegas in US? Cause that might explain a lot.
I'm not making a judgment call i just find it so interesting that a lot of Americans don't have a problem with smoking weed, but have a problem with betting, and in Sweden its pretty much the exact opposite.
Cultural differences is pretty fascinating!
Generally, in the US, gambling is legal is 4 places (as far as I know): 1. Las Vegas 2. Atlantic City 3. On water (such as the Michigan Lake Casino boats) 4. On Indian Reservations
Gambling is allowed throughout the entire state of Nevada. In other states, beyond the Indian casinos, there are some municipalities where gambling has been allowed by local ordinances; some "riverboat casinos" have moved on land. There's also racetracks, OTBs, sports betting, lotteries, etc.
Conservative states with anti-gambling laws eventually got tired of AC, Vegas, and the Indians getting all the tourist dollars, so now everyone wants in on taxing gambling revenue.
I think it's also kinda allowed in the privacy of your own home. At least in CA, if only because the government can't really prove/monitor it unless they have a warrant.
Gambling is like any other vice. If you can maintain self-control it's no worse than drinking, smoking, etc... If you can't then you need to stay away from it. Personally, I really only play poker with friends cause it's fun and I really don't mind losing couple bucks to good friends.
Gambling is incredibly addicting to those cursed with addictive personalities. It has ruined a couple of my friends' lives and I have a family member who still struggles with it. Insensitive people with no knowledge of the nature of addiction would say "just stop gambling"; for these unfortunates, that's like telling a junkie "just stop using smack bro".
I just stay away from it period. I realize not everyone has a problem with it but it's not worth it to me. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This is very true, but this is also true about drugs(weed).. I dont now what your stance is one the matter but its pretty much the same thing. But this is off-topic so nvm.
Sports betting is not realy gambling, the people making the bets actually think they have an edge (and some actually do), This is one of the factors that makes sports betting verry attractive for manny people who wont bet in casinos because they dont like bad odds It is also a reason why sportsbetting (and also future trading/spread betting) can be verry adictive, the feeling you have an edge, (like some hard core gamblers wrongly have with slot machines, that they can "read" when its going to pay out) People can justify even huge losses for themselves based on "variance"
On December 16 2011 08:31 CryingPoo wrote: I don't get the handicap thing. This finals for an example.
MATCH HANDICAP MONEY LINE Sat 12/17 2201 DongRaeGu +1.5 1.556 2.220 12:30 AM 2202 MMA -1.5 2.530 1.699 Sat 12/17 2201 DongRaeGu -1.5 2.930 12:30 AM 2202 MMA +1.5 1.435
How does handicap work? Can someone explain each handicap and pay out?
Explained very simply:
You're looking at the number of maps won. You wan't your player to end up with the most maps.
That means that DRG +1,5 only needs to win 2 maps to have more maps than his opponent can have at the end of the match (in a bo5).
At the most, MMA will get 3 maps.
DRG will have 2 maps +1,5 maps from the handicap = 3,5.
Conversely, if you bet -1,5, DRG can at the most get 3 maps -1,5 maps = 1,5 maps.
In other words, MMA can only win 1 map before DRG gets to 3 maps, or he will end up with more maps than DRG at the end of the match.
I hope that makes sense.
Would you mind explaining -1.5 part again? I thought the finals were BO7?
Ah ok, I didn't know it was bo7. In that case, you wanna be counting to 4 maps, which is what player needs to win.
If you decide to to play -1,5 on DRG, what you are saying is, that you think he will get the four maps (and thus win the maych) before MMA gets more than 2 maps.
In other words, you think DRG is a strong favorite.
The way to check it is this:
With -1,5 DRG can at the max get:
4 maps (if he wins the match) - 1,5 map (from the handicap) = 2,5 maps.
Remember, you want your player to have the most maps at the end of the match.
That means, that MMA can at the most get 2 maps before DRG gets 4 maps.
If MMA gets 3 or more maps, he will necessarily end up with a higher map-score than DRG:
3-4 maps (MMA) > 2,5 maps (DRG with handicap).
It can be a bit tricky to wrap your head around at first, but after a short while it comes naturally.
So to sum it up..
+1.5 = You bet on a player if you think a player is capable of winning 2 games out of 7. (If this is the case what about BO3 and BO5?)
-1.5 = You bet on a player if you think that the opponent of the player you put money on cannot take 2 games out of 7. (The same question, how will this change if it's BO3 and BO5?)
And why is it? 1.5 not 2?
Sorry I am a noob at this betting thing and am just very curious before making a bet for the first time.
Thank you
Your example is not correct.
For each of the BoX, think of the number of maps you need to win.
Bo3 = 2 ; Bo5 = 3 ; Bo7 = 4
Your player needs to end with the most maps at the end of the match.
If in a bo3 you think DRG will win at least 1 map, then you can play +1,5 map.
That way, he will have at least 2,5 (1+1,5) maps, while his opponent can at the most get 2 maps (if he wins the match).
If DRG wins 0 maps, he will end up with 1,5 (0+1,5) map, while MMA ends up with 2 maps.
if DRG wins 1 map, he will end up with 2,5 (1+1,5), while MMA ends up with 2 maps.
If DRG wins 2 maps, he will end up with 3,5 (2+1,5), while MMA can at the most have 1 map.
On December 15 2011 21:49 TiTanIum_ wrote: It´s a zero sum game. If you won 10k someone else lost 10k, and if everybody betted correctly you would have gotten nothing.
LMAO. Whatever you take from this topic, make sure it's not this. That is just so wrong.
I've bet sports since I was a wee lad. This is a brag topic, don't get it twisted. SC2 isn't like the NFL where margins are super thin. It's a niche bet so expect to pay more to bet SC2. If you're a real savant living in Korea maybe you'd have enough insight to beat that kind of vig. Congrats to the OP but it's still some good sense mixed with a lot of variance. I'm hoping SC2 blows up though and those lines tighten up, cuz I don't know enough about the scene to beat the book.
On December 16 2011 09:50 NeWeNiyaLord wrote: I really dont get betting, why dont you just bet 1k on each (DRG And MMA) Then your guerantied a win?
Because the booker takes a cut ...
Using the moneylines posted by CryingPoo, if you bet 1k on each, that's a total investment of 2000 to get back either 2220 (DRG wins) or 1699 (MMA wins). That's certainly not a guaranteed win.
Does anyone know if there is a website similar to this one for people living in the United States. Is it illegal in the U.S. or ? PM or just reply please
gambling is illegal in US no(except on boats or specific locales? am i being ignorant?) im guesssing thats why most betting sites like 888.com wont accept US clients?
If you bet carefully and know the scene pretty well I can see this being an easy money maker.
And imagine u bet 1k on Nani v Nestea if that happened id use all my winnings to hire a hitman, lol.
Bad thing is when money like this is involved theres always a chance of match fixing, even on a subtle level like a 1-sided match where the superior opponent decides to drop a certain amount of maps in order to make an unlikely bet a winner...
Lets hope we never have another saviOr-type scandal, I wish he wasnt banned for life as I'm 100% sure he would have made a boxer-esque comeback in sc2!
On December 16 2011 11:56 GeNeSiDe wrote: gambling is illegal in US no(except on boats or specific locales? am i being ignorant?) im guesssing thats why most betting sites like 888.com wont accept US clients?
Gambling is legal in more places in the US than that (generally, it's regulated on a state-by-state basis), but local legality is not the issue here; it's the Federal Wire Act of 1961:
(a) Whoever being engaged in the business of betting or wagering knowingly uses a wire communication facility for the transmission in interstate or foreign commerce of bets or wagers or information assisting in the placing of bets or wagers on any sporting event or contest, or for the transmission of a wire communication which entitles the recipient to receive money or credit as a result of bets or wagers, or for information assisting in the placing of bets or wagers, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than two years, or both.
Ahh that makes sense...sucks cause its such an arcane law really..."land of the free", highest drinking age in the non-middle eastern world, no gambling(for the most part)....kind of ironic no?
On December 16 2011 08:44 aderum wrote: I noticed that many Americans are very against betting and see it as something really dangerous and addictive... Is gambling completely against the law everywhere except Vegas in US? Cause that might explain a lot.
I'm not making a judgment call i just find it so interesting that a lot of Americans don't have a problem with smoking weed, but have a problem with betting, and in Sweden its pretty much the exact opposite.
Cultural differences is pretty fascinating!
Agreed its incredibly fascinating. One thing to help explain some perceptions of American culture is that its incredibly segmented. I believe I can say this emphatically without being wrong. The country is incredibly split on certain issues. A group for example embrace esports but another group laugh it off like its a joke. I believe Europe is very embracing of esports even for people who don't play there seems to be more willingness to give it its due.
In this particular instance its most likely the selective values from the judeo-Christian upbringing. Also the American culture endorses excess which when applied to gambling literally ruins lives which leaves a bad taste.
But I digress I'm completely off topic.
I view betting as having an extreme potential for danger. I also view it as an extreme source of exhilaration. I believe the latter can be obtained and the former completely prevented in the same stride. Limits. As others have mentioned. Play with what you can afford to lose. I can still have fun betting low. While I admit its not as fun well that's with everything.... It's your risk to take, prepare for the consequences, don't cry when its not the turnout you were hoping.
On the topic of state laws around gambling... Nevada(vegas) allows the most number of forms of gambling. They allow sports betting basically as a "grandfathered law" as I understand. I believe Iowa is 2nd most with all forms besides sports betting.
thurst0n -- About NV's "grandfathered" sports betting:
In 1992, sports betting was effectively outlawed nationwide by the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA), with the exception of states that had regulated sports betting running at the time. Those were:
Nevada (of course)
Oregon -- The Oregon Lottery had started a parlay game for wagering on NFL games in 1989. It continued through the 2006 NFL season, at which point it was discontinued by a state bill signed in 2005. (In the first year of the program, there were also NBA games available for wagering, but not those involving the in-state Portland Trailblazers.)
Montana -- I can't find information on what sports betting they had at the time of PASPA, but in 2008, the state's Lottery and Horse Racing Board collaborated to take advantage of the state's privilege by starting a Fantasy Football pool under the brand "Montana Sports Action." (The primary difference between MSA FF and other legal FF leagues is that MSA is a parimutuel pool -- payouts depend on the total amount wagered. Such a scheme is prohibited under the 2006 Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act, at least for online fantasy sports.)
Delaware -- The state allowed parlay wagers on NFL games in the 1976 season only, but that was enough for DE to qualify for the grandfathering provision of PASPA. Delaware re-introduced NFL parlay wagering for the 2009 season. They attempted to add single-game betting for the NFL and other leagues as well, but that was thwarted when they lost a legal battle with the leagues in federal appeals court, which ruled that the results of single-game betting were based on skill (not luck), and thus contrary to the terms under which Delaware originally allowed sports bets in 1976. (The PASPA grandfathering provision states that the states can only allow sports betting to the extent that it was allowed prior to the Act coming into effect.)
By the way, there was a one year time frame after the Act took effect, in which any state that legalized sports betting could have been exempt like those four. The primary target of that provision seems to have been New Jersey (due to Atlantic City), but NJ blinked, the year passed, and sports betting is still illegal there. However, NJ is now among several states that are pushing for a repeal of PASPA so that they can license or run sports wagering games for additional revenue.
On December 16 2011 09:54 THM wrote: MMA -1.5 on 2.53 seems like the best bet to me. If MMA's gonna win, it's almost surely not going to be a 4:3.
if MMA wins 4:3 and you bet -1.5 you would have lost your bet...
Thanks Captain Obvious
If you read my post again you'd probably get that what I'm saying is that mma -1.5 at 2.53 seems like the best value to me, as I think MMA will win but I think that the chances of him winning 4:3 are very slim compared to the chances of him winning 4:0, 4:1 or 4:2. If you look at all the GSL finals, you'll see that only one has ended 4:3, out of more than 10 finals.
Therefore, 2.53 is a lot more appealing than the standard MMA bet (which I think was around 1.65).
EPT
You may have noticed I bet against Naniwa to win (lucky for me, unlucky for the others). I am very against his actions, because I want starcraft to be taken seriously as a sport. Pinnacle has helped it move into a positive direction by offering odds on the games, but that is put at risk by things like what Naniwa did. Imagine how all those that put their money on Naniwa would have felt when they watched what he did.l.. in any case, there is enough talk about this as is so I will leave it there.
Betting on sc2 is also the way I make most of my income (before that if was poker (small stakes) and recreative sports betting so I was used to manage a bankroll).
