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The MLG lines are in 
+ Show Spoiler [Complete lines] +
Lots and lots of bets available, I've decided to bet sparsely on matches where I like the lines and have a sufficient understanding of both the player's skills.
-1.5 means the player has to win by at least a 1.5 match margin. i.e. 3-0, 3-1 but not 3-2. In a BO3 it's a 2-0.
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/pmzzZ.png)
I'm interested in how the foreigners will stack up against the Korean monsters. From what I've seen there's a rather large skill gap between the best in NA and the best in KR. Let's hope that reflects in my winnings
Thoughts?
Did anyone else place some bets?
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Moon is not bad, bad, bad. He's a good player, but he doesn't show it in GSL. He's been doing extremely well in NASL, and he also came 2nd in IEM.
EDIT: To clarify, I still think Naniwa will win, but give Moon some credit.
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On June 04 2011 01:10 ditkaordie wrote:
what is the 1.5 mean?
-1.5 means the player has to win by at least a 1.5 match margin. i.e. 3-0, 3-1 but not 3-2. In a BO3 it's a 2-0.
On June 04 2011 01:10 RPR_Tempest wrote:
Moon is not bad, bad, bad. He's a good player, but he doesn't show it in GSL. He's been doing extremely well in NASL, and he also came 2nd in IEM.
EDIT: To clarify, I still think Naniwa will win, but give Moon some credit.
Of course, Moon is a great player yada yada, but compared to some of these other guys I've placed bets on, I think he has yet to practice to get on that same level. He has some solid micro, but his macro is very unrefined, and if it goes into a longer game I don't see him winning.
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I bet way too much on this weekend xD
TLO +1.5 2.140 3.470
Losira -1.5 1.752 1.332
Losira has a bad vT, TLO always shines in lans, I took the risk with those odds.
SeleCT 2.380
IdrA 1.617
Idra has a very high winrate against Select, a very safe bet with a very good price.
SeleCT 1.885
RET 1.971
Ret has a winning record against Select in recent matches, very easy bet at this price.
Moonan 2.160
SjoW 1.735
I took a little of Sjow (not a big bet), because the price is good. But I nearly bet on Moonan, he's on the rise and Sjow last NASL was awful (but was a vZ) Urg, you got the same@1.926 ><
SLush -1.5 2.030 1.385
Gretorp +1.5 1.833 3.160
Very good price for the handicap, Gretorp should get rolled.
Kiwikaki -1.5 2.360 1.541
Sheth +1.5 1.625 2.570
A fun little bet because of the good odd. Kiwi is a favorite but no by that much, and PvZ is hard nowadays.
Moonan +1.5 2.130 3.570
MMA -1.5 1.758 1.318
Yeah, I love risks.
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Haha, I enjoyed reading your comments :D I am not sure MC is as unbeatable as you think, but I agreed with most of what you said. I can't wait to watch the results, either way.
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sorry, i do not know this site very well. what is the link to the page you screenshotted? I would like to place my bets as well.
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I betted way too much on this weekend xD
TLO +1.5 2.140 3.470
Losira -1.5 1.752 1.332
Losira has a bad vT, TLO always shines in lans, I took the risk with those odds.
That's really risky
SeleCT 2.380
IdrA 1.617
Idra has a very high winrate against Select, a very safe bet with a very good price.
According to TLPD, idra a 60% winrate vs Select, that isn't "very high"...
SeleCT 1.885
RET 1.971
Ret has a winning record against Select in recent matches, very easy bet at this price.
Again, ret only has 60%, thats not a "very easy bet", you are severely underestimating Select.
Kiwikaki -1.5 2.360 1.541
Sheth +1.5 1.625 2.570
A fun little bet because of the good odd. Kiwi is a favorite but no by that much, and PvZ is
hard nowadays.
nonsense..
Moonan +1.5 2.130 3.570
MMA -1.5 1.758 1.318
Yeah, I love risks.
NONSENSE
I would have bet the exact same opposite of you :p
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On June 04 2011 01:27 MrCon wrote:
I betted way too much on this weekend xD
haha me too :D
TLO +1.5 2.140 3.470
Losira -1.5 1.752 1.332
Losira has a bad vT, TLO always shines in lans, I took the risk with those odds.
Yeah I agree on the LosirA part. TLO ... I love the guy, but he has just disappointed time and time again when it came to beating good players. He just focuses on the most creative builds. If I were to coach him, I'd just force him to go 1rax CC tank-marine vZ and vT 2 months nonstop, only MM vsP and just focus on mechanics and decision making.
But then there's his CT :/ I feel really bad for him. Tens of thousands of people made him their super-hero when he was just 18 and that can get to your head quite quickly... Get better TLO!
SeleCT 2.380
IdrA 1.617
Idra has a very high winrate against Select, a very safe bet with a very good price.
I agree, but I'm kind of wary betting on IdrA, he's got skill but he's just so inconsistent. Last MLG he went out in 2 really weird games against TLO, then there was that 0-2 against SeleCT where he got insta-cheesed out. If he were to get his head screwed straight-on, I'd be more willing to put money on him ... but as is, there's better players for that
SeleCT 1.885
RET 1.971
Ret has a winning record against Select in recent matches, very easy bet at this price.
Moonan 2.160
SjoW 1.735
I took a little of Sjow (not a big bet), because the price is good. But I nearly bet on Moonan, he's on the rise and Sjow last NASL was awful (but was a vZ)
Yeah Sjow is really bad vZ
Urg, you got the same@1.926 ><
^>^;;
SLush -1.5 2.030 1.385
Gretorp +1.5 1.833 3.160
Very good price for the handicap, Gretorp should get rolled.
I thought about betting here too ... but I don't know how either of these players play, so I refrained from doing so.
Kiwikaki -1.5 2.360 1.541
Sheth +1.5 1.625 2.570
A fun little bet because of the good odd. Kiwi is a favorite but no by that much, and PvZ is hard nowadays.
Yeah Sheth is kinda decent vP and Kiwi pretty cheesy, might turn out a good decision
Moonan +1.5 2.130 3.570
MMA -1.5 1.758 1.318
Yeah, I love risks.
Not such a bad bet, MMA is good at playing from behind, he should take that series without a problem, even if Moonan manages to surprise him.
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Lol you took the safest bet possible. How much will you win(what ratio) if you get this perfect?
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On June 04 2011 01:58 torgr1 wrote:Show nested quote +
I betted way too much on this weekend xD
TLO +1.5 2.140 3.470
Losira -1.5 1.752 1.332
Losira has a bad vT, TLO always shines in lans, I took the risk with those odds.
That's really risky Show nested quote +
SeleCT 2.380
IdrA 1.617
Idra has a very high winrate against Select, a very safe bet with a very good price.
According to TLPD, idra a 60% winrate vs Select, that isn't "very high"... Show nested quote +SeleCT 1.885
RET 1.971
Ret has a winning record against Select in recent matches, very easy bet at this price. Again, ret only has 60%, thats not a "very easy bet", you are severely underestimating Select. Show nested quote +
Kiwikaki -1.5 2.360 1.541
Sheth +1.5 1.625 2.570
A fun little bet because of the good odd. Kiwi is a favorite but no by that much, and PvZ is
hard nowadays.
nonsense.. NONSENSE I would have bet the exact same opposite of you :p
You don't seem to understand we're talking risk/reward here. I don't underestimate select, I just take a 60% win with a 2 to 1 payout.
I think Sheth has a chance to win vs kiwi, at 2.6 to 1 I take it too.
Yes, the TLO bet is risky. I bet he'll be able to take just one game, it seems very possible.
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On June 04 2011 02:00 ChickenLips wrote:
Yeah, I love risks.
Not such a bad bet, MMA is good at playing from behind, he should take that series without a problem, even if Moonan manages to surprise him.
Note that I posted my most risky/funny/controversial bets here (except the MMA one)
It's mostly bets against who I think will win because I found the odd to be good. In idra's case, his vT is very solid at the moment, I would perhaps even had bet for him against bomber depending the odds.
(what is the past tense for "bet" ?  )
The odds of most MC's matches are too low now, didn't catch them at the good time, so no bet on him.
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On June 04 2011 02:08 MrCon wrote:Show nested quote +On June 04 2011 02:00 ChickenLips wrote:
Yeah, I love risks.
Not such a bad bet, MMA is good at playing from behind, he should take that series without a problem, even if Moonan manages to surprise him. Note that I posted my most risky/funny/controversial bets here (except the MMA one) It's mostly bets against who I think will win because I found the odd to be good. In idra's case, his vT is very solid at the moment, I would perhaps even had bet for him against bomber depending the odds. (what is the past tense for "bet" ? ) The odds of most MC's matches are too low now, didn't catch them at the good time, so no bet on him.
bet
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I didn't check the odds for all of them, but if we're just talking win-loss, I agree with almost all of your bets. Although, there always seem to be upsets somewhere
Best of luck though!
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On June 04 2011 02:22 ClysmiC wrote:I didn't check the odds for all of them, but if we're just talking win-loss, I agree with almost all of your bets. Although, there always seem to be upsets somewhere Best of luck though!
-1.5 means the player has to win 2-0
Ignore the Pinnacle stuff. They're way incompetent when it comes to listing matches, and sometimes even deciding the lines
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On June 04 2011 02:00 darmousseh wrote:
Lol you took the safest bet possible. How much will you win(what ratio) if you get this perfect?
iirc i walk out of this betting round with 350 Euros if I get every one correct.
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On June 04 2011 02:27 ChickenLips wrote:Ignore the Pinnacle stuff. They're way incompetent when it comes to listing matches, and sometimes even deciding the lines
Their times are in PDT.
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Here are my bets GL to everyone else.
TLO vs Machine_____2.980___10 units
Naniwa vs Moon_____1.588___7 units
TLO vs Losira_______1.333___4 units
iNcontrol vs Losira___4.870___2 units
Moonan vs SjoW_____1.990___7 units (crossbooked)
SeleCT vs Tyler______3.870___6 units
Slush vs Gretorp_____1.435___8 units
Haypro vs Machine ___2.010___7 units
Tyler vs MC_________4.870___4 units
Drewbie vs Moon ____2.810___6 units
SeleCT vs MC_______1.552___4 units
IdrA vs Tyler ________4.020___5 units
Ret vs Tyler_________3.840___5 units
iNcontrol vs TLO ____2.810___3 units
TLO vs Haypro______2.560___7 units
Moonan vs Sheth ____1.971___7 units
SjoW vs Sheth_______1.962___7 units
Slush vs Drewbie ____1.769___5 units
Moonan vs MMA_____3.840___8 units
Ret vs MC __________3.120___2 units
SeleCT vs IdrA ______1.719___4 units
SeleCT vs Ret_______1.847___4 units
Slush vs Moon_______1.581___9 units
Moonan vs SjoW_____2.160___6.67 units (crossbooked)
Total Bet 137.67 units
Average Bet Size 5.73 units
Average odds 2.604
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Lol i had to laugh a couple of times reading your explanations <3
might post my bets later on.
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On June 04 2011 03:29 DarKFoRcE wrote:
Lol i had to laugh a couple of times reading your explanations <3
might post my bets later on.
Please do!
Always interested in what a pro player thinks!
On June 04 2011 03:29 rANDY wrote:Here are my bets GL to everyone else. <<snipsnip>> Total Bet 137.67 unitsAverage Bet Size 5.73 unitsAverage odds 2.604
Intriguing to see the difference in betting strategy!
It's probably more advanced than mine, but in the past I've had rather bad experiences with trying to exploit seemingly-too-high odds and betting on underdogs. Especially things like betting on Tyler, that guy has (as a Protoss (!!!!)) neither the will to cheese, to all-in nor to practice. He didn't even manage to say "I will practive for and win MLG Dallas!" when asked in the recent SotG . . .
Thanks for posting your bets and please do post your results! (I could compile them by hand, but I'm lazy, lazy, lazy)
Oh and the crossbook is ofcourse gosu times 2. Should've done the same!
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here are by bets:
Select 2u (+133 / +138) vs Idra
Kiwikaki 1u (+172) vs MMA
Ret 2u (+118 / +127) vs Idra
Kiwikaki 1u (-185) vs Sheth
Moon 1u (+192) vs Naniwa
Moonan 1u (+116) vs Sjow
i might add more later, depending on what my impressions from watching the games are, not sure if i will remember posting them here, but i will edit my blogpost here: http://www.sc2pro.de/?p=754
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I told you to not bet on MC xD
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good start right there :p
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Go TLO, score one map win please !
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Gosh, should have bet on Moonan instead of Sjow like I said, I hesitated, beting when your hesitating is always bad but I could'nt stop it.
edit : that turned well xD
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SeleCT vs Tyler______3.870___6 units
Nice job Randy ^^
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Good job on your nani-1.5, it's a bet I would have never considered.
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Bleh, Slush lost one game against gretorp, what a noob xD
Had I catch idra@1.962 vs Select I would be positive, now I'm positive but like 5€ haha.
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Sheth looked like he would take G2 but then Kiwikaki's mothership mass recalls, archons, collossi, and void rays proved unbeatable.
FU, go Sheth for the jackpot xD
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Sheth wins, Kiwi now 0 and 2 in his group #mlg
BOOM.
Hey I'm alone here now, well, update of the bets
TLO +1.5 2.140 3.470
Losira -1.5 1.752 1.332
SeleCT 2.380
IdrA 1.617
SeleCT 1.885
RET 1.971
Moonan 2.160
SjoW 1.735
SLush -1.5 2.030 1.385
Gretorp +1.5 1.833 3.160
Kiwikaki -1.5 2.360 1.541
Sheth +1.5 1.625 2.570
Moonan +1.5 2.130 3.570
MMA -1.5 1.758 1.318
Now as long as MMA doesn't lose vs Moonan, I made a great night. If Ret wins vs Select, I made a very great night
edit : too bad I didn't took MMA-1.5, but I wanted one big, safe bet to cover all the others, I was too timid on this one still.
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MMA is already 1-0 vs Moonan, so it's looking good for us
SjoW winning over Moonan is of course awesome, as is Losira stomping TLO exactly like i predicted :D
It might not seem like it, but I'm really happy about the first set, MC vs IdrA, even though I lost 12 Euros there, really nice play by IdrA and while I think MC definitely played under his skill level, it's cool to see IdrA win.
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Oops, I thought MMA already won :D
Yeah, the idraMC serie was awesome. Even more awesome is the fact that the replays are available <3 You've made a lot of good bets, all those -1.5 are spot on, I wish I had bet on nani-1.5 vs moon, as I said I didn't even considered it, well played.
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Pool B 19. MMA (T) wins G2 against 7. Moonan (t) on Shattered Temple and takes the match 2-0. #MLG
![[image loading]](http://www.getclosure.co.za/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/cash.gif)
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4 am
![[image loading]](http://s3.amazonaws.com/kym-assets/entries/icons/square/000/005/742/sweetjesus.jpg?1304464025)
i think i'll tune out after g3 of inc vs losira, ZvZs and not-so-big names afterwards
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Same. I made my day already anyway, it can only get better if Ret wins but it's pretty good already.
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And Ret 2-0 Select, easily.
BOOM.
5/7, good night, cya tonight =)
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So far I'm pretty happy with how my bets turned out. Only 3 turned out bad so far, IdrA vs MC which I already commented on,
Tyler vs SeleCT
I watched those games, g2 he went for a really really stupid BO (cloak banshee with late expand cross Metalo) and Tyler just turtled for a 2 Colossus timing ... gg
g3 he was ahead in terms of BO choice (1 rax CC vs quick robo) but then did a completely stupidifying push with 2 ghosts that put him extremely far behind. I closed the rep when he had 30 to Tyler's 50 workers at the ~12 minute mark... That's not how I remember SeleCT to play TvP, 0 drops and awful decision making :/
SLush vs naniwa
wow, really surprised, after his beautiful showing of skill (g2 vs moon was just a thing of beauty) I would really love to see those reps such a shame they're not up yet.
I hope LosirA can come down from his tilt and 2-0 Machine :D
Oh and of course a quick 2-0 for MMA vs Sheth... Seeing how he already took down 2 Terrans (albeit 2-1) I'm kind of doubtful this will go through as planned. Hoping for good games
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Catz +1.5 2.210 4.370
2076 July -1.5 1.704 1.235
I took a little of catz, July vZ is terrible. (I know terrible is relative when it's korean vs foreigner, but with this odd it's ok, I precise that in case of torgr1 coming back telling me all my bets are nonsense xD Oops, he's banned already.)
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I have the following today:
select +291 (vs mc)
axslav +208
vibe +177
catz +337
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On June 05 2011 01:34 DarKFoRcE wrote:
I have the following today:
select +291 (vs mc)
axslav +208
vibe +177
catz +337
I bet a lot against SeleCT after looking at his losses vs Tyler. I think it's very very impossible for him to win a BO3 against a well-rested MC (but i've been wrong before haha)
I took the Axslav vs cruncher bet too, really easy money. Rarely do I see the bookies make such a grave mistake, putting cruncher as the favorite for that match is heresy.
I have _a lot_ of money on Losira vs Machine, if that's an upset I might kill off all my profits :D
Of course clearing that 20euro bet -1.5 on MMA vs Sheth makes me happy ^_^
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I wonder how long pinnacle sports keeps this up, because if there's more people that make as much money doing this as me (and there must be, because I'm pretty nooby at betting) it _can't_ be profitable.
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Has Pinnacle Sports slowed to an unmaneuverable crawl for anyone else?
I can load the front page fine from my mobile phone's internet.
They must've banned my IP, because it works flawlessly from my phone. Stopped working right before the MCvLosira games, which is kind of fortunate because I would've bet on MC haha
I'll post my bet history & results for the weekend once I figure out how. If anyone else has them available, feel free to do so too!
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EPT![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/bCrNO.png)
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