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On December 07 2010 13:56 jcarlsoniv wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2010 13:45 Eiii wrote:On December 07 2010 08:19 Eiii wrote:
The hatter plan seems best to me too, if I'm understanding correctly. I wasn't, the hatter plan is terrible. I don't feel like we have strong enough leads on two mafia to bet the whole game on not hitting any town with the bombs. If the hatter has any bombs on people he's not 100% sure are mafia, he should recall them asap. So, we don't have any good leads on mafia, but we should bet on the town being able to lynch right 4 times in a row?
I should have phrased that better-- we don't have ENOUGH good leads. Radfield seems to be the lynch candidate for the moment, but I don't want to risk losing just for an advantage by guessing who another mafia is. At this point, if I were mafia I'd be laying as low as possible to avoid suspicion. Obviously, if they can keep attention away from themselves they've got this in the bag.
We *have* to lynch 4 times in a row or we lose. If we act greedy and go for two kills now and miss even one, we lose. I think the safer thing to do is just lynch Radfield for the time being-- if by pouring over people's posts and such we find another sure mafia candidate we should go for the MH plan again, but everyone should know that if a SINGLE bomb target isn't mafia town LOSES INSTANTLY.
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On December 07 2010 14:07 KtheZ wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2010 12:44 jcarlsoniv wrote:On December 07 2010 12:40 KtheZ wrote:On December 07 2010 08:24 Node wrote:
On the flipside, it's entirely possible that the hatter will end up more dangerous to us alive than dead if we get a couple of correct lynches. Supposing we lynch a mafia today and the MH survives tonight, it's gonna be really hard for him to have bombs on two mafia for the subsequent nights -- so if the mafia manage to hit him it's going to be more and more likely that he accidentally blows up the town, which would spell our demise. Or we could purposely lynch one of his bombs out of the game. Why would we ever do that? I'm saying that IF and only IF we get to the point with like 1 or 2 mafia left, and an also dwindled number of townies, that the hatter's bombs may do more harm than good.
MH is a townie KP, why would we want to get rid of his bombs?
On December 07 2010 14:46 Eiii wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2010 13:56 jcarlsoniv wrote:On December 07 2010 13:45 Eiii wrote:On December 07 2010 08:19 Eiii wrote:
The hatter plan seems best to me too, if I'm understanding correctly. I wasn't, the hatter plan is terrible. I don't feel like we have strong enough leads on two mafia to bet the whole game on not hitting any town with the bombs. If the hatter has any bombs on people he's not 100% sure are mafia, he should recall them asap. So, we don't have any good leads on mafia, but we should bet on the town being able to lynch right 4 times in a row? I should have phrased that better-- we don't have ENOUGH good leads. Radfield seems to be the lynch candidate for the moment, but I don't want to risk losing just for an advantage by guessing who another mafia is. At this point, if I were mafia I'd be laying as low as possible to avoid suspicion. Obviously, if they can keep attention away from themselves they've got this in the bag. We *have* to lynch 4 times in a row or we lose. If we act greedy and go for two kills now and miss even one, we lose. I think the safer thing to do is just lynch Radfield for the time being-- if by pouring over people's posts and such we find another sure mafia candidate we should go for the MH plan again, but everyone should know that if a SINGLE bomb target isn't mafia town LOSES INSTANTLY.
It's the same situation eitherway. If a SINGLE lynch isn't mafia town LOSES INSTANTLY.
If we go for the lynch option and manages to lynch a mafia today, all it would take is for mafia to convince 1 person to vote with them and town loses.
But if we kill the MH, mafia have no chance at all of trying to convince people who town should kill.
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My point is we're only lynching one person, but if we take out the MH we're killing both him and two others, each of whom may or may not be mafia. As long as we don't have more than one major (and I mean MAJOR) suspect, we should just stick with lynching.
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On December 07 2010 14:56 Nemesis wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2010 14:07 KtheZ wrote:On December 07 2010 12:44 jcarlsoniv wrote:On December 07 2010 12:40 KtheZ wrote:On December 07 2010 08:24 Node wrote:
On the flipside, it's entirely possible that the hatter will end up more dangerous to us alive than dead if we get a couple of correct lynches. Supposing we lynch a mafia today and the MH survives tonight, it's gonna be really hard for him to have bombs on two mafia for the subsequent nights -- so if the mafia manage to hit him it's going to be more and more likely that he accidentally blows up the town, which would spell our demise. Or we could purposely lynch one of his bombs out of the game. Why would we ever do that? I'm saying that IF and only IF we get to the point with like 1 or 2 mafia left, and an also dwindled number of townies, that the hatter's bombs may do more harm than good. MH is a townie KP, why would we want to get rid of his bombs? Show nested quote +On December 07 2010 14:46 Eiii wrote:On December 07 2010 13:56 jcarlsoniv wrote:On December 07 2010 13:45 Eiii wrote:On December 07 2010 08:19 Eiii wrote:
The hatter plan seems best to me too, if I'm understanding correctly. I wasn't, the hatter plan is terrible. I don't feel like we have strong enough leads on two mafia to bet the whole game on not hitting any town with the bombs. If the hatter has any bombs on people he's not 100% sure are mafia, he should recall them asap. So, we don't have any good leads on mafia, but we should bet on the town being able to lynch right 4 times in a row? I should have phrased that better-- we don't have ENOUGH good leads. Radfield seems to be the lynch candidate for the moment, but I don't want to risk losing just for an advantage by guessing who another mafia is. At this point, if I were mafia I'd be laying as low as possible to avoid suspicion. Obviously, if they can keep attention away from themselves they've got this in the bag. We *have* to lynch 4 times in a row or we lose. If we act greedy and go for two kills now and miss even one, we lose. I think the safer thing to do is just lynch Radfield for the time being-- if by pouring over people's posts and such we find another sure mafia candidate we should go for the MH plan again, but everyone should know that if a SINGLE bomb target isn't mafia town LOSES INSTANTLY. It's the same situation eitherway. If a SINGLE lynch isn't mafia town LOSES INSTANTLY. If we go for the lynch option and manages to lynch a mafia today, all it would take is for mafia to convince 1 person to vote with them and town loses. But if we kill the MH, mafia have no chance at all of trying to convince people who town should kill.
This. Nemesis said it pretty much as well as I could have.
Lynching the MH will put us in a better position in the coming days if he was right about his targets. If one bomb is wrong, yes, that would suck. However, I feel that I would rather make the gamble that the 2 bombs kill mafia, so we only need 2 consecutive lynches as opposed to 4.
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I wasn't in the town circle so I don't know how much info you guys have behind the scenes or anything-- I'm just really convinced that it's a bad idea to jump the gun now if we're not 100% sure the two targets are mafia. I wouldn't just suck, it would be game-ending.
If there's any question at all, we should bide our time-- another day cycle is a ton of time to look back, analyze posts, etc. so we can find the other mafia. If MH and others in the circle are convinced they have perfect picks then we should go for it.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
OK, sorry everyone, my Satellite Inet has been down due to a storm. First things first, lets not lynch me today  . People are throwing that around with little reasoning. That fact that not a single soul in this thread has spoken a word of defense towards me today should let you know i'm not red. Mafia are content to let me be the lynchee. Anyone actively pushing for my lynch or death through MH, gets some scum points.
Second, we need to kill the godfather ASAP. If we have 4 mafia left, as people are assuming, then the only way to reduce KP quickly is by lynching the GF. Lynching the GF today leaves us in a better situation down the stretch. So in my mind, the question is who is the most likely to be the GF, not who is most likely to be mafia.
Taking a look at who is left in this game:
2. Jcarlsoniv
4. Southrawrea - Still hasn't explained why he has not been hit.
10. Eiii
12. kitaman27
13. Cubedin
14. esbenpm
19. node
22. radfield
25. Aeres
27. KtheZ
29. Nemesis
30. Glasse
These are my personal thoughts right now(4 out of 5 are likely mafia), but we need to come to a consensus now before we go down the wire. Assuming we lynch correctly today, we need everyones thoughts on paper before the night finishes. Why? Because three more townies will die in the night, and using their opinions will help keep the mafia influence to a minimum down the stretch.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On December 07 2010 23:38 Radfield wrote:OK, sorry everyone, my Satellite Inet has been down due to a storm. First things first, lets not lynch me today . People are throwing that around with little reasoning. That fact that not a single soul in this thread has spoken a word of defense towards me today should let you know i'm not red. Mafia are content to let me be the lynchee. Anyone actively pushing for my lynch or death through MH, gets some scum points. Second, we need to kill the godfather ASAP. If we have 4 mafia left, as people are assuming, then the only way to reduce KP quickly is by lynching the GF. Lynching the GF today leaves us in a better situation down the stretch. So in my mind, the question is who is the most likely to be the GF, not who is most likely to be mafia. Taking a look at who is left in this game: 2. Jcarlsoniv 4. Southrawrea - Still hasn't explained why he has not been hit. 10. Eiii
12. kitaman2713. Cubedin
14. esbenpm
19. node22. radfield25. Aeres27. KtheZ
29. Nemesis30. Glasse These are my personal thoughts right now(4 out of 5 are likely mafia), but we need to come to a consensus now before we go down the wire. Assuming we lynch correctly today, we need everyones thoughts on paper before the night finishes. Why? Because three more townies will die in the night, and using their opinions will help keep the mafia influence to a minimum down the stretch.
Hmm, so you call out 5 different people, but fail to provide reasons yourself. Care to elaborate?
I also find it interesting that you accuse our dt confirmed green. Sure, he could be the unlikely elder, but you haven't provided any reasons for what makes you think that.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On December 08 2010 01:07 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2010 23:38 Radfield wrote:OK, sorry everyone, my Satellite Inet has been down due to a storm. First things first, lets not lynch me today . People are throwing that around with little reasoning. That fact that not a single soul in this thread has spoken a word of defense towards me today should let you know i'm not red. Mafia are content to let me be the lynchee. Anyone actively pushing for my lynch or death through MH, gets some scum points. Second, we need to kill the godfather ASAP. If we have 4 mafia left, as people are assuming, then the only way to reduce KP quickly is by lynching the GF. Lynching the GF today leaves us in a better situation down the stretch. So in my mind, the question is who is the most likely to be the GF, not who is most likely to be mafia. Taking a look at who is left in this game: 2. Jcarlsoniv 4. Southrawrea - Still hasn't explained why he has not been hit. 10. Eiii
12. kitaman2713. Cubedin
14. esbenpm
19. node22. radfield25. Aeres27. KtheZ
29. Nemesis30. Glasse These are my personal thoughts right now(4 out of 5 are likely mafia), but we need to come to a consensus now before we go down the wire. Assuming we lynch correctly today, we need everyones thoughts on paper before the night finishes. Why? Because three more townies will die in the night, and using their opinions will help keep the mafia influence to a minimum down the stretch. Hmm, so you call out 5 different people, but fail to provide reasons yourself. Care to elaborate? I also find it interesting that you accuse our dt confirmed green. Sure, he could be the unlikely elder, but you haven't provided any reasons for what makes you think that.
In addition, you question South because he hasn't explained why he hasn't been hit. If he is town, then he has no explanation. Mafia is the one deciding the hits. That is similar to last game where Ace demanded I prove my innocence by explaining how I could have a watcher role that tracks. There is no correct answer that I could make. I'm not saying he gets a free pass, but the same logic could be used towards you not explaining why you haven't been hit.
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I'll vote for Glasse, he was a lot more chatty when he was town in insane.
As for me, I'm not mafia. And if you think I am, then take a look at my posts, out of the few I made, I have mostly tried to help the town NOT lynch Dr.H. That's not proof, true, but if I was a lurking mafia, I wouldn't have drawn attention to myself by protecting him, and then killing him the next night. If mafia would've wanted him dead (which they did, cuz they killed him), they wouldn't have someone try to draw attention from him.
I don't know how else I could put this, I really don't want you guys to waste a bomb/lynch on me and lose us the game, after I screwed up at the start by being inactive as well.
LOOK INTO MY EYES! WOULD I LIE TO YOU?
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But in retrospect, I do agree that a confirmed DT would have been long dead by now in a regular game. Sure, it could be a very wise move by mafia to let him live thus far, but if he wasn't red it would also be extremely risky, because it would make easy for us to hit our lynches.
Of course, now we reached the point of no return. We either trust him, or lynch him. There's no middle way :/
So yeah... food for thought.
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Blah screw it. I agree to voting with MH, and trust his judgement.
Hope you get 99 virgins and stuff!
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Ok, I am going to make an executive decision. I believe lynching the MH will put the town in a good position for tomorrow if everything goes well. We are sort of stuck between a rock and a hard place here, and we need some bombs to blow them down.
I have started to become more confident that my bombs are in the right place. I'm still not completely sure, and I apologize if shit doesn't go well, but I feel that a risk must be taken. High risk, high reward.
Let Operation 72 Virgins (not 99 =P) commence.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On December 08 2010 03:03 jcarlsoniv wrote:
Ok, I am going to make an executive decision. I believe lynching the MH will put the town in a good position for tomorrow if everything goes well. We are sort of stuck between a rock and a hard place here, and we need some bombs to blow them down.
I have started to become more confident that my bombs are in the right place. I'm still not completely sure, and I apologize if shit doesn't go well, but I feel that a risk must be taken. High risk, high reward.
Let Operation 72 Virgins (not 99 =P) commence.
You heard the man, no going back now that he role claimed. If your vote isn't on him then you make yourself a target.
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On December 08 2010 03:09 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2010 03:03 jcarlsoniv wrote:
Ok, I am going to make an executive decision. I believe lynching the MH will put the town in a good position for tomorrow if everything goes well. We are sort of stuck between a rock and a hard place here, and we need some bombs to blow them down.
I have started to become more confident that my bombs are in the right place. I'm still not completely sure, and I apologize if shit doesn't go well, but I feel that a risk must be taken. High risk, high reward.
Let Operation 72 Virgins (not 99 =P) commence. You heard the man, no going back now that he role claimed. If your vote isn't on him then you make yourself a target.
What if someone else claims and you two are mafia?
Just asking, that would be funny. 
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On December 08 2010 03:27 CubEdIn wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2010 03:09 kitaman27 wrote:On December 08 2010 03:03 jcarlsoniv wrote:
Ok, I am going to make an executive decision. I believe lynching the MH will put the town in a good position for tomorrow if everything goes well. We are sort of stuck between a rock and a hard place here, and we need some bombs to blow them down.
I have started to become more confident that my bombs are in the right place. I'm still not completely sure, and I apologize if shit doesn't go well, but I feel that a risk must be taken. High risk, high reward.
Let Operation 72 Virgins (not 99 =P) commence. You heard the man, no going back now that he role claimed. If your vote isn't on him then you make yourself a target. What if someone else claims and you two are mafia? Just asking, that would be funny.
Why would I tell people to lynch me if I'm mafia? lol
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
I guarantee this is an auto-loss Jcarl. I am not red, and I doubt that Eiii is either(At least Kitaman tells me that's where the other bomb is).
We have decent lynch targets out there, why are we taking the easy way out?
I propose we lynch Glasse. He has contributed very little this game, and has coasted by in contrast to his prior posting style. His voting has also been suspect:
Day 1 voted for Coag (nothing really suspect about this)
Day 2 he jumps all over the place. He starts by Abstaining, then switches to Amber, then jumps on the Protact bandwagon.
Day 3 he starts out by hopping on Jimbosilvers attempted bandwagon of DrH, which by now we can see was total BS. (He never actually moves off of Dr H)
Day 4 he abstains again??
He is active enough to be around to abstain, but doesn't post in the thread. Honestly, how can you possibly abstain today when it's lylo?? We need to discuss this lynch, and he has been noticeably quiet. It is in the best interest of mafia to clam up right now, as the less discussion the better. We need 4 lynches in a row right now, so the less the mafia post, the less chance we have of hitting them.
My vote is on Glasse.
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On December 08 2010 03:29 jcarlsoniv wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2010 03:27 CubEdIn wrote:On December 08 2010 03:09 kitaman27 wrote:On December 08 2010 03:03 jcarlsoniv wrote:
Ok, I am going to make an executive decision. I believe lynching the MH will put the town in a good position for tomorrow if everything goes well. We are sort of stuck between a rock and a hard place here, and we need some bombs to blow them down.
I have started to become more confident that my bombs are in the right place. I'm still not completely sure, and I apologize if shit doesn't go well, but I feel that a risk must be taken. High risk, high reward.
Let Operation 72 Virgins (not 99 =P) commence. You heard the man, no going back now that he role claimed. If your vote isn't on him then you make yourself a target. What if someone else claims and you two are mafia? Just asking, that would be funny. Why would I tell people to lynch me if I'm mafia? lol
First of all, I'm just going into deep WIFOM here, but since you're playing along with the discussion, let's digress!
Many reasons!
a) Find out who the real MH is (look for the guy with a surprised look on his face that seems to be going "heeeeeeey....")
b) Cause a huge shit storm, in case there are 2 MHs claiming. The Mafia will be united, but the town
won't. They will no longer know who to trust and votes will be split at least 2-ways (tho, one of them will be the real MHer so no harm there I guess).
c) Draw attention to some players while hiding others. A lot can happen if that amount of chaos is ensued.
I'm not saying it's a wise move for mafia, It's not. But it would be hella-funny, and not as unreasonable as it sounds.
The only real argument against it is that town doesn't have any real leads anyway, so there's no need to push a snowball down the hill. 
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On December 08 2010 03:34 CubEdIn wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2010 03:29 jcarlsoniv wrote:On December 08 2010 03:27 CubEdIn wrote:On December 08 2010 03:09 kitaman27 wrote:On December 08 2010 03:03 jcarlsoniv wrote:
Ok, I am going to make an executive decision. I believe lynching the MH will put the town in a good position for tomorrow if everything goes well. We are sort of stuck between a rock and a hard place here, and we need some bombs to blow them down.
I have started to become more confident that my bombs are in the right place. I'm still not completely sure, and I apologize if shit doesn't go well, but I feel that a risk must be taken. High risk, high reward.
Let Operation 72 Virgins (not 99 =P) commence. You heard the man, no going back now that he role claimed. If your vote isn't on him then you make yourself a target. What if someone else claims and you two are mafia? Just asking, that would be funny. Why would I tell people to lynch me if I'm mafia? lol First of all, I'm just going into deep WIFOM here, but since you're playing along with the discussion, let's digress! Many reasons! a) Find out who the real MH is (look for the guy with a surprised look on his face that seems to be going "heeeeeeey....") b) Cause a huge shit storm, in case there are 2 MHs claiming. The Mafia will be united, but the town won't. They will no longer know who to trust and votes will be split at least 2-ways (tho, one of them will be the real MHer so no harm there I guess). c) Draw attention to some players while hiding others. A lot can happen if that amount of chaos is ensued. I'm not saying it's a wise move for mafia, It's not. But it would be hella-funny, and not as unreasonable as it sounds. The only real argument against it is that town doesn't have any real leads anyway, so there's no need to push a snowball down the hill.
If we are both mafia, then I suggest you lynch him to kill a scum.
If we are both town, then I suggest you lynch him to let him carry out his plan.
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On December 08 2010 03:34 CubEdIn wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2010 03:29 jcarlsoniv wrote:On December 08 2010 03:27 CubEdIn wrote:On December 08 2010 03:09 kitaman27 wrote:On December 08 2010 03:03 jcarlsoniv wrote:
Ok, I am going to make an executive decision. I believe lynching the MH will put the town in a good position for tomorrow if everything goes well. We are sort of stuck between a rock and a hard place here, and we need some bombs to blow them down.
I have started to become more confident that my bombs are in the right place. I'm still not completely sure, and I apologize if shit doesn't go well, but I feel that a risk must be taken. High risk, high reward.
Let Operation 72 Virgins (not 99 =P) commence. You heard the man, no going back now that he role claimed. If your vote isn't on him then you make yourself a target. What if someone else claims and you two are mafia? Just asking, that would be funny. Why would I tell people to lynch me if I'm mafia? lol First of all, I'm just going into deep WIFOM here, but since you're playing along with the discussion, let's digress! Many reasons! a) Find out who the real MH is (look for the guy with a surprised look on his face that seems to be going "heeeeeeey....") b) Cause a huge shit storm, in case there are 2 MHs claiming. The Mafia will be united, but the town won't. They will no longer know who to trust and votes will be split at least 2-ways (tho, one of them will be the real MHer so no harm there I guess). c) Draw attention to some players while hiding others. A lot can happen if that amount of chaos is ensued. I'm not saying it's a wise move for mafia, It's not. But it would be hella-funny, and not as unreasonable as it sounds. The only real argument against it is that town doesn't have any real leads anyway, so there's no need to push a snowball down the hill.
Hah, well, considering the stuff KJ pulled in Doc's Experimental Mafia yesterday, that doesn't sound THAT far-fetched =P
But I assure you, I am the real MH.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
This is a bad plan people, and not just because I know for a fact that it will lose us the game. Now, obviously me yelling I'm green will not sway anyone, so lets set that aside.
If we're assuming here that the two bomb victims are mafia, which we are, then this is STILL the wrong way to go about this. Why not lynch them one after another, today and tomorrow. By voting for the MH today, we lose a day of voting, which at this point is what is going to pin down mafia. Yes 4 lynches in a row is a tall order, but each successful lynch makes it more likely to pin mafia the next night. Why? Because of voting tendancies. Each day gives us another round of votes to look at, and also wipes more townies out of the way, making it easier to hit mafia. The longer this game goes, the more likely we are to win(obviously). Why are we trying to shorten it?
If you guys truly believe that me and Eiii the most likely mafia, then lynching one today and one tomorrow is the smarter play(in principal). It keeps a confirmed townie alive(Jcarl) and gives us more votes to analyse as well - Who's defending who? Who's sure player x is mafia? Etc. Why are we trying to stifle discussion by giving the mafia an easy win with the MH?
Kitaman you keep talking how because Jcarl is outted now, that puts us at the point of no return, but I don't see how this is true. It gives us a player to rally around, who won't die, who we KNOW is town aligned(no counter-claim). Why is this a bad thing??
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EPT
