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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
Well here are our remaining scenarios:
Scenario: Lynch a town
Town loss
Scenario: Lynch a scum
8-3 lynch
5-3 hits
5-2 lynch
3-2 hits
3-1 lynch
2-1 hits
2-0 lynch
4 correct lynches required
Scenario: Lynch an Elder
8-3 lynch
6-3 hits
6-2 lynch
4-2 hits
4-1 lynch
3-1 hits
2-0 lynch
4 correct lynches required
Both these scenarios assume the hatter is not hit. Given the information the mafia has, this is certainly possible. If by chance they do hit the hatter, then based on where his bombs lie, the chances of victory are much higher.
Alternate route, we lynch the MH:
Scenario: MH is elder
8-3 lynch
6-3 night hits
6-2 lynch
4-2 night hits
3-1 lynch
2-1 night nits
2-0 lynch
3 correct lynches required (since the MH was the first lynch)
Scenario: Bombs hit an elder and scum
7-2 lynch
5-2 night hits
5-1 lynch
4-1 night hits
1 correct lynches required to reach 4-1
Scenario: Bombs hit 2 scum
7-2 lynch
5-2 night hits
5-1 lynch
4-1 night hits
1 correct lynches required to reach 4-1
Scenario: Bombs hits elder and town
6-3 lynch
4-3 night hits
4-2 lynch
2-2 night hits
Town loss
Scenario: Bombs hits scum and town
6-3 lynch
4-3 night hits
4-2 lynch
2-2 night hits
Town loss
Scenario: Bomb hits two town
Town loss
The entire argument becomes invalid if the MH only has one bomb remaining. We have to decide if it is more likely for the MH to currently have 2 bombs on scum or for us to lynch correct 4 times in a row or have the mafia hit the hatter. Someone should probably check the numbers, but given these scenarios, I think not lynching the hatter is the best way to go.
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I have been toying with the idea of lynching the MH for the last couple of hours. I have talked to him about it, and he seems to think it's not an awful idea. I've been doing homework, so I haven't been able to crunch the numbers, thanks kita.
Basically, I feel like our percentages are the same. Either we lynch a non-MH player, or we lynch the MH. If we lynch town, we lose, if the MH has a bomb on town, we lose. However, if we just do a lynch, I'm not sure we will be able to get 4 consecutive scum lynches, that's a lot without mistakes. If the MH has the bombs on two scum, then boom, we only have 2 scum left, and that will be a lot easier. I am actually leaning towards lynching the hatter being the better choice.
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wtf sorry my tl bugged up and i was meant to post that last night but it just got posted when i opened up my laptop
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Non-participant post
LOL. Maybe edit it out since you are dead after all?
Edit: I can confirm that content of the post did not seem to contain critical information, methinks. Also lawl your final words.
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tried pming RoL before doing it but i guess i'll just do it now
GL HF town
There are many of you that are horrible at this game, or maybe just horrible at playing town. Good luck, you'll need it.
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funny coming from the player with probably the worst individual performance this game
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So should we choose to lynch the hatter, we should not reveal who the bombs are on but stick with the decision just so we don't get the mafia turning on us. Keep in mind that the bombs were placed in accordance with who we thought was scummy. I'm almost positive now that one of the targets is mafia. So IMHO, there's 1 near-certain scum + one player we thought was scummy and then 2 lynches vs lynching 1 scum + 3 guesses. The difference is that we save a night at the cost of the MH's life. Unless there's something I'm not factoring in here, this seems to be our best option. I'd like the majority of people to comment on this before we go through with it.
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On December 06 2010 13:32 SouthRawrea wrote:
So should we choose to lynch the hatter, we should not reveal who the bombs are on but stick with the decision just so we don't get the mafia turning on us. Keep in mind that the bombs were placed in accordance with who we thought was scummy. I'm almost positive now that one of the targets is mafia. So IMHO, there's 1 near-certain scum + one player we thought was scummy and then 2 lynches vs lynching 1 scum + 3 guesses. The difference is that we save a night at the cost of the MH's life. Unless there's something I'm not factoring in here, this seems to be our best option. I'd like the majority of people to comment on this before we go through with it.
I agree. I think that lynching the MH will put the town in a better position should it be successful and hit two scum. If town dies, either by lynch or bomb, then we are screwed either way, and if we manage to lynch scum, we still have a lot of work to do.
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Hmm town's chances are rather looking grim. I am rather leaning towards lynching MH right now because town's chances of lynching right 4 times is rather low especially factoring in that townies might be easily manipulated by witches.
It depends on how much confidence MH has on his targets. Does MH still have two bombs right now, and if so, how confident is he?
Because if he only has 1 bomb, I think our chances are pretty much the same eitherway, and would rather scumhunt.
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On December 06 2010 13:54 Nemesis wrote:
Hmm town's chances are rather looking grim. I am rather leaning towards lynching MH right now because town's chances of lynching right 4 times is rather low especially factoring in that townies might be easily manipulated by witches.
It depends on how much confidence MH has on his targets. Does MH still have two bombs right now, and if so, how confident is he?
Because if he only has 1 bomb, I think our chances are pretty much the same eitherway, and would rather scumhunt.
He has confirmed that he does have 2 bombs left. One is on a target we are pretty certain is scum, the other is on a target that we aren't so sure about.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
I just realized that I forgot to take into account the existence of a second vet, so the scenarios probably won't play out like I suggested.
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On December 06 2010 12:57 youngminii wrote:
tried pming RoL before doing it but i guess i'll just do it now
GL HF town
There are many of you that are horrible at this game, or maybe just horrible at playing town. Good luck, you'll need it.
Worst. Vet. Ever. -_-
Good Luck town~~
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I'm willing to lynch the MH, provided both of his bombs are down. It's pretty much now or never for the town.
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But the thing is lynching Mad Hatter is succed or lose.
Currently our situation is 8 town and 4 mafia.
If the hatter has a bomb on a townie and a mafia 3 people die.
This would put us at 6-3. However if the mafia is not the godfather it's gg since KP will still be 3.
So basically the only way we can win with lynching the mad hatter is either he hits two mafia with bombs or hits the godfather.
While i'm all for throwing a hail mary with the hatter (We are pretty pressuered anyway), people just need to consider that lynching him over our greatest suspect is all or nothing.
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K, i need to read before i post. Kitaman pointed out the same thing. In any case it is still all or nothing.
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Just going on a side-note here, since we're considering taking down MH, why not take down someone who we're pretty certain is mafia, and take the chance of mafia hitting MH on the following night.
I know it's a long shot, but if you are not certain of both of MHs bombs, it's pretty much the same thing. And eventually we'll have to take a stab in the dark anyway.
Also, one more thing, if we ARE lynching MH, we have to be very accurate about it. We can't have the lynch derail at the last moment and give away info on who the MH is to the mafia. I know this sounds stupid, but I seen it happen with Pandain in Insane. What was supposed to be a very clear lynch got derailed easily because people were not paying enough attention.
So. I'm gonna ask mr. jcarlsoniv: You said you spoke to MH and you're both toying with the idea. Do you happen to have a 3rd target? Someone we can be at least 50,01% sure is mafia tonight? 
After that's been answered, I propose we vote if we lynch the MH or not.
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On December 06 2010 21:47 CubEdIn wrote:Just going on a side-note here, since we're considering taking down MH, why not take down someone who we're pretty certain is mafia, and take the chance of mafia hitting MH on the following night. I know it's a long shot, but if you are not certain of both of MHs bombs, it's pretty much the same thing. And eventually we'll have to take a stab in the dark anyway. Also, one more thing, if we ARE lynching MH, we have to be very accurate about it. We can't have the lynch derail at the last moment and give away info on who the MH is to the mafia. I know this sounds stupid, but I seen it happen with Pandain in Insane. What was supposed to be a very clear lynch got derailed easily because people were not paying enough attention. So. I'm gonna ask mr. jcarlsoniv: You said you spoke to MH and you're both toying with the idea. Do you happen to have a 3rd target? Someone we can be at least 50,01% sure is mafia tonight? After that's been answered, I propose we vote if we lynch the MH or not.
Well, we have a bomb on one target who we are pretty certain is scum. If we were to lynch him, then we would lose one bomb, and cut the MH's effectiveness in half, something we can't afford to do. So we would have to find another player who we think is scum, and even then, if we lynch a townie, it is loss.
We are trying to think of a third target, because if we can take a safer route, that would be nice. However, the safer, best case scenario would be this: Find a third target who is mafia, lynch him, hope the MH gets hit tonight and blows up at least one scum, obviously preferably two.
Lynching the MH is indeed a huge gamble, but that might be what the town needs at this point. High risk, but high reward. If things don't go perfectly with lynches, we lose. If we get lucky with bombs we will be in much better shape for the coming days. So that's the real question, does the town want to take a big gamble to maybe swing the tide of the game back into its favor?
Side note: What happened in insane was ridiculous. I was dead at that point, and Ace was wreaking all sorts of havoc, and there were a lot more players. I will keep the thread on track as best I can so we can actually follow through with a plan.
Going to class, be back in a few hours.
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On December 06 2010 12:57 youngminii wrote:
tried pming RoL before doing it but i guess i'll just do it now
GL HF town
There are many of you that are horrible at this game, or maybe just horrible at playing town. Good luck, you'll need it.
Who on earth are you to make a statement like this? You pretty much ruined the game and your role.
Hope you had fun bc we all know you're never "helpful" with a green role. Hope mods never give you a blue role to waste ever again.
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On December 06 2010 23:36 Amber[LighT] wrote:Show nested quote +On December 06 2010 12:57 youngminii wrote:
tried pming RoL before doing it but i guess i'll just do it now
GL HF town
There are many of you that are horrible at this game, or maybe just horrible at playing town. Good luck, you'll need it. Who on earth are you to make a statement like this? You pretty much ruined the game and your role. Hope you had fun bc we all know you're never "helpful" with a green role. Hope mods never give you a blue role to waste ever again.
RNG 
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EPT
