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On November 19 2010 06:03 Excalibur_Z wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On November 19 2010 05:15 KaienFEMC wrote:
I only have one question.
In Taiwan server, the bottom top 200 players usually are people with very few games due to the small player pool. There are even platinum players who made it to the top 200 list (No. 198 30 wins with 4 loses).
How would you explain this from your analysis/algorithm? Okay I just did a quick run-through of the top and bottom of the Taiwanese Top 200 (the top to get an idea of the S-class divisions and the bottom to see if there were any members of those divisions surrounding the Platinum guy, which there were). Here were the results: Show nested quote +Blizz Name Record Rating Snapshot Division
1 MrGxASUS 446-216 2453 薩爾加斯 天微星
2 迅游高爾 582-241 2417 吞噬蟲 IOTA
3 NemoRanK 695-487 2526 腐化飛蟲 PHI
4 NvGoMax 130-38 2323 吞噬蟲 IOTA
5 OrzRush 340-170 2403 守衛者 天閒星
6 DusRush 358-201 2263 守衛者 天閒星
...
195 Start 53-16 685 烏銳扎 天孤星
196 Gale 35-15 620 薩爾加斯 天微星
197 StarWbisu 46-18 579 守衛者 天閒星
198 袁鵬 30-4 1117 奧古斯格勒 天富星
199 吉姆莫里森 41-17 466 吉姆莫里森
200 超超 32-11 435 薩爾加斯 天微星
So we can see that the #198 guy, who is in Platinum, is between 620 and 435 points of division 薩爾加斯 天微星 which I presume to be S-Rank. Because there are no anomalies in points in the bottom 6, I believe the divisions of the #199 and #197 are also S-class, meaning the Plat guy is between 579 and 466. So 1117 in that guy's particular Plat division puts him between 579 and 466 S-Rank diamond.
I would like to thank you for all your hard work first, and it did clear some confusion about how the top 200 lists were created.
However, just to spice it up a little bit. If I understood your analysis correctly, shouldn't everyone from the division 薩爾加斯 天微星 that has points above "超超 32-11" in the Taiwan server reach top 200?
超超, is only ranked 88th in the division and did not play a single game after Oct 4th according to sc2ranks and there are lots of other players in 薩爾加斯 天微星 were not on the top 200 list. This includes rank 3 player PowerStorM from the division. Its hard to track back, but this player had at least 1900 point since November according to sc2ranks.
Do you think there is another factor involved in the generation of top 200 other than the division modifier? Do you think MMR would possibly play a role in here? Though I think you stated that Blizzard had announced that MMR has nothing to do with top 200. This is making things really interesting. Please correct me if I had misinterpreted your analysis.
Again, thanks for the awesome work!
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Are you sure the differences between divisions isn't just based on the date the division popped into existence? You should look at some of the unknowns on sc2ranks and look at the dates they last became diamond. You might find that the 300 difference is equal to the 300 hour difference (converted to bonus points) from when they were promoted into a newly created division.
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United States12224 Posts
I updated the original post with Wargizmo's awesome explanation for why the system is built this way, since that's a common question. I also added a few more unanswered questions to the end.
On November 19 2010 23:35 onmach wrote:
Are you sure the differences between divisions isn't just based on the date the division popped into existence? You should look at some of the unknowns on sc2ranks and look at the dates they last became diamond. You might find that the 300 difference is equal to the 300 hour difference (converted to bonus points) from when they were promoted into a newly created division.
Positive, just look at Scout Kilo for example. That's a launch day division but it has a +315 modifier.
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On November 18 2010 05:22 Excalibur_Z wrote:
Unanswered Questions:
- How many tiers of divisions exist within each league? Blizzard had mentioned that additional divisions would be added to Bronze to solve the Bronze Zero phenomenon, but have divisions (or, extra layers of granularity) been added to other leagues previously?
This is solvable, just not quickly and easily. If you were to look at many players promotions and make a general assumption of say 10 levels per league. Through massive iteration with enough data points (promotions with exact point modifiers) eventually the granularity would emerge. It seems that SC2 ranks already mines this data (perhaps not at the right intervals though) and you have figured out the points calculation / promotion / division modifier formula.
Now it would be just a function of creating a place (such as a sticky thread here) where people list their division and promotion and point information.
Another set of data points would be useful, when you get an even match game. Listing each player and the current point total. I would bet that when you see even match with a different point spread it is going to be in a multiple of 63 with say a deviation of +/-10. This may help determine the top and bottom of each league and is more frequent than promotions. However it is more dependent on player input.
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Another note, listing the class of divisions as S, A, B, C, D, E etc... messes with peoples mind in the wrong way because once we are in a division we are stuck there. Tying to those ICCup ratings means that gee I am E and I will never be S even if I greatly improve.
Since E class divisions can make it to top 200 list and even be ranked number 1 if they are really good enough. Perhaps considering different nomenclature may cause people to think more rationally about this instead of some of the more emotional reactions you have gotten. Perhaps Div 0 (S-class), Div 1 or -63, Div 2 or -128, etc.
Regards,
-E
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On November 19 2010 15:49 Excalibur_Z wrote:
Worth noting then is that 208 - 19 = 189, which is a multiple of 63, meaning your +19 bonus pool got eaten the same way that Mendelfist's and mine did. Hooray for more data. So that would mean that you went up 3 tiers when you got promoted. If it is one contiguous ladder, then it would mean you jumped from a Rank X Platinum division to a Rank X-3 Diamond division.
Getting more data wouldn't be so hard I think. Just drop yourself down to bronze, then 6-pool up to silver and repeat. Boring, but I bet you could collect quite a few promotions/demotions in an evening. Maybe you would also get some more insight about how and when the system promotes you. :-)
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Another note, listing the class of divisions as S, A, B, C, D, E etc... messes with peoples mind in the wrong way because once we are in a division we are stuck there. Tying to those ICCup ratings means that gee I am E and I will never be S even if I greatly improve.
Since E class divisions can make it to top 200 list and even be ranked number 1 if they are really good enough. Perhaps considering different nomenclature may cause people to think more rationally about this instead of some of the more emotional reactions you have gotten. Perhaps Div 0 (S-class), Div 1 or -63, Div 2 or -128, etc.
That is my major argument as well - which it seems was overlooked. I would like it to be explained better as to how you can claim one division is rated higher, and will always remain rated higher. If there can be no movement between divisions, then you are telling me that an A-class player can never become an S-class player....which I'm not buying
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saying Div 0, Div 1 etc is no different...you're still attaching a value to divisions that are made up of players that can easily be getting better as the days go by. if you can't move between the divisions, then the system is worthless as a reflection of how talented a player you actually are
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United States12224 Posts
On November 20 2010 06:21 dGretch wrote:Show nested quote +Another note, listing the class of divisions as S, A, B, C, D, E etc... messes with peoples mind in the wrong way because once we are in a division we are stuck there. Tying to those ICCup ratings means that gee I am E and I will never be S even if I greatly improve.
Since E class divisions can make it to top 200 list and even be ranked number 1 if they are really good enough. Perhaps considering different nomenclature may cause people to think more rationally about this instead of some of the more emotional reactions you have gotten. Perhaps Div 0 (S-class), Div 1 or -63, Div 2 or -128, etc. That is my major argument as well - which it seems was overlooked. I would like it to be explained better as to how you can claim one division is rated higher, and will always remain rated higher. If there can be no movement between divisions, then you are telling me that an A-class player can never become an S-class player....which I'm not buying
You're trying to think in terms of leagues when that's not the case. With leagues, you can be promoted or demoted from one league to another. With divisions you're stuck, but at least now we have some understanding about how they're structured which makes it possible to think in terms of adjusted points. If you're in an A-Rank Diamond division then you will never move into an S-Rank Diamond division, but if you're 63 points higher than an S-Rank player then you know that your adjusted point values are equal. That's all it means.
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On November 20 2010 06:24 dGretch wrote:
saying Div 0, Div 1 etc is no different...you're still attaching a value to divisions that are made up of players that can easily be getting better as the days go by. if you can't move between the divisions, then the system is worthless as a reflection of how talented a player you actually are
The value exists. It is shown in the data presented. Taking away the emotional response was my only point.
By knowing the value of your division you can better judge your absolute ranking.
Hypothetical:
P1: Div 6 (-378) player has 2600 points
P2 - You: Div 4 (-252) player with 2500 points
Start screen shows P2 as slightly favored and you win. You get a bunch of these matches and you are thinking man I can beat 2600 diamond but I am not really moving up in points much.
If you knew that oh the real ranking of the player is:
P1: 2222
You P2: 2248
You see that is why the system had you as slightly favored against a higher point opponent.
Another Hypothetical Example:
P1: Div 0 2800 points => Blizzard number 1 ranked
You: Div 6 (-378) 2500 points => properly corrected 2122
Now you improve drastically and go on a 100 game winning streak, P1 doesn't change points.
Once your points become 3179 blizzard would give you the number 1 ranking.
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That is why knowing that there is a div value associated with the points is helpful. Ultimately if it was solved completely, a site like SC2ranks could give an accurate continuous ladder ranking.
Again, I recommend taking away the S, A, B, etc... to avoid emotional response and misinterpretation from BW ICCup understanding.
Regards,
-E
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United States12224 Posts
On November 20 2010 07:13 Eeryck wrote:Show nested quote +On November 20 2010 06:24 dGretch wrote:
saying Div 0, Div 1 etc is no different...you're still attaching a value to divisions that are made up of players that can easily be getting better as the days go by. if you can't move between the divisions, then the system is worthless as a reflection of how talented a player you actually are The value exists. It is shown in the data presented. Taking away the emotional response was my only point. By knowing the value of your division you can better judge your absolute ranking. Hypothetical: P1: Div 6 (-378) player has 2600 points P2 - You: Div 4 (-252) player with 2500 points Start screen shows P2 as slightly favored and you win. You get a bunch of these matches and you are thinking man I can beat 2600 diamond but I am not really moving up in points much. If you knew that oh the real ranking of the player is: P1: 2222 You P2: 2248 You see that is why the system had you as slightly favored against a higher point opponent. Another Hypothetical Example: P1: Div 0 2800 points => Blizzard number 1 ranked You: Div 6 (-378) 2500 points => properly corrected 2122 Now you improve drastically and go on a 100 game winning streak, P1 doesn't change points. Once your points become 3179 blizzard would give you the number 1 ranking. ----- That is why knowing that there is a div value associated with the points is helpful. Ultimately if it was solved completely, a site like SC2ranks could give an accurate continuous ladder ranking. Again, I recommend taking away the S, A, B, etc... to avoid emotional response and misinterpretation from BW ICCup understanding. Regards, -E
I really shouldn't have to outline that SC2 is not ICCUP. Everybody knows that already. Everybody knows (or should know, if they've read anything about the ladder) that you can't get promoted from one division to another, so I don't really see how it could be misinterpreted.
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You're trying to think in terms of leagues when that's not the case. With leagues, you can be promoted or demoted from one league to another. With divisions you're stuck, but at least now we have some understanding about how they're structured which makes it possible to think in terms of adjusted points. If you're in an A-Rank Diamond division then you will never move into an S-Rank Diamond division, but if you're 63 points higher than an S-Rank player then you know that your adjusted point values are equal. That's all it means.
So you're saying we all have to sit down and figure out which divisions are "S-Class" through "E-Class" and then do all of this math to figure out where we stand among diamond level players?
no thx. I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm just saying the system blows, you know what I mean?
Like, no matter how you slice it, if I'm the equivalent of an S-Rank player, I want to be in an S-Class division, and not have to do some research and math adjustments at the end of every night to figure out where I stand.
Also, I can't exactly just go around saying "Yeah my division is E-class but after you adjust my points and my divisions handicap, I'm basically an S-Class player"
it shouldn't work like this
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United States12224 Posts
On November 19 2010 23:26 KaienFEMC wrote:Show nested quote +On November 19 2010 06:03 Excalibur_Z wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On November 19 2010 05:15 KaienFEMC wrote:
I only have one question.
In Taiwan server, the bottom top 200 players usually are people with very few games due to the small player pool. There are even platinum players who made it to the top 200 list (No. 198 30 wins with 4 loses).
How would you explain this from your analysis/algorithm? Okay I just did a quick run-through of the top and bottom of the Taiwanese Top 200 (the top to get an idea of the S-class divisions and the bottom to see if there were any members of those divisions surrounding the Platinum guy, which there were). Here were the results: Blizz Name Record Rating Snapshot Division
1 MrGxASUS 446-216 2453 薩爾加斯 天微星
2 迅游高爾 582-241 2417 吞噬蟲 IOTA
3 NemoRanK 695-487 2526 腐化飛蟲 PHI
4 NvGoMax 130-38 2323 吞噬蟲 IOTA
5 OrzRush 340-170 2403 守衛者 天閒星
6 DusRush 358-201 2263 守衛者 天閒星
...
195 Start 53-16 685 烏銳扎 天孤星
196 Gale 35-15 620 薩爾加斯 天微星
197 StarWbisu 46-18 579 守衛者 天閒星
198 袁鵬 30-4 1117 奧古斯格勒 天富星
199 吉姆莫里森 41-17 466 吉姆莫里森
200 超超 32-11 435 薩爾加斯 天微星
So we can see that the #198 guy, who is in Platinum, is between 620 and 435 points of division 薩爾加斯 天微星 which I presume to be S-Rank. Because there are no anomalies in points in the bottom 6, I believe the divisions of the #199 and #197 are also S-class, meaning the Plat guy is between 579 and 466. So 1117 in that guy's particular Plat division puts him between 579 and 466 S-Rank diamond. I would like to thank you for all your hard work first, and it did clear some confusion about how the top 200 lists were created. However, just to spice it up a little bit. If I understood your analysis correctly, shouldn't everyone from the division 薩爾加斯 天微星 that has points above "超超 32-11" in the Taiwan server reach top 200? 超超, is only ranked 88th in the division and did not play a single game after Oct 4th according to sc2ranks and there are lots of other players in 薩爾加斯 天微星 were not on the top 200 list. This includes rank 3 player PowerStorM from the division. Its hard to track back, but this player had at least 1900 point since November according to sc2ranks. Do you think there is another factor involved in the generation of top 200 other than the division modifier? Do you think MMR would possibly play a role in here? Though I think you stated that Blizzard had announced that MMR has nothing to do with top 200. This is making things really interesting. Please correct me if I had misinterpreted your analysis. Again, thanks for the awesome work!
You're right about the outliers and I don't really have an answer for you, I'm afraid. We witnessed the same thing in one of the early editions of the Top 200 where a 7-1 Plat guy appeared in the #200 spot. I think situations like those can simply be discounted as anomalies and while they do make sense to Blizzard, we have no way to verify them and they don't apply to most of the list.
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United States12224 Posts
On November 20 2010 07:30 dGretch wrote:Show nested quote +You're trying to think in terms of leagues when that's not the case. With leagues, you can be promoted or demoted from one league to another. With divisions you're stuck, but at least now we have some understanding about how they're structured which makes it possible to think in terms of adjusted points. If you're in an A-Rank Diamond division then you will never move into an S-Rank Diamond division, but if you're 63 points higher than an S-Rank player then you know that your adjusted point values are equal. That's all it means. So you're saying we all have to sit down and figure out which divisions are "S-Class" through "E-Class" and then do all of this math to figure out where we stand among diamond level players? no thx. I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm just saying the system blows, you know what I mean? Like, no matter how you slice it, if I'm the equivalent of an S-Rank player, I want to be in an S-Class division, and not have to do some research and math adjustments at the end of every night to figure out where I stand. Also, I can't exactly just go around saying "Yeah my division is E-class but after you adjust my points and my divisions handicap, I'm basically an S-Class player" it shouldn't work like this
That's exactly how it works, though. I mean, you're right on the money and I wish there was more transparency myself. The ladder, by design (as you'll read in Wargizmo's post), puts the focus solely on your division. If you want to be able to compare your standing to other divisions, then you have to know that they're not equal and to what degree and you have to put in that extra work to convert to adjusted points.
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Is it safe to assume that the divisions not listed here are E-Class, or worse?
I suppose it's possible that there could be a A/B/C-Class division out there that didn't have anyone in the top 200, right?
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United States12224 Posts
On November 20 2010 07:58 QuothTheRaven wrote:
Is it safe to assume that the divisions not listed here are E-Class, or worse?
I suppose it's possible that there could be a A/B/C-Class division out there that didn't have anyone in the top 200, right?
Sure it's possible. They just didn't have enough points.
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On November 19 2010 07:42 Excalibur_Z wrote:
As a result of this, Shadowed added an Activity filter to SC2Ranks, and looking at that (try the filter at 7 days and looking at the Stats page) you start to see that most of the percentages are a lot closer to 20% (with the exception of Bronze which is consistently a bit higher... maybe it's double-counting it because Copper was removed?).
Here's my guess: Bronze is so much bigger on SC2Ranks with those settings because a much larger percentage of those players have played ANY games in the last week but not enough to qualify by Blizzard's activity threshold.
So for example, suppose half the Bronze players who have been on in the last week logged on and played one or two games, and the activity threshold were three games. Then, you'd get "20% in each division" by Blizzard's reckoning, but numbers like you see on SC2Ranks.
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On November 19 2010 23:26 KaienFEMC wrote:
Do you think there is another factor involved in the generation of top 200 other than the division modifier? Do you think MMR would possibly play a role in here? Though I think you stated that Blizzard had announced that MMR has nothing to do with top 200. This is making things really interesting. Please correct me if I had misinterpreted your analysis.
Again, thanks for the awesome work!
Here's a question:
Are we certain that there really an "MMR" other than points minus division modifier? Is it possible that Blizzard subtracts the division modifier from displayed point value when deciding against whom to match a player, rather than maintaining a totally separate MMR number? Perhaps there's an error estimate ("sigma" in Trueskill-speak) that's separate, but which estimates error in the displayed-point-minus-division-modifier number.
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I have seen situations where people that have less points are ranked higher than people that have more points in their same division. Can you explain that?
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Interesting to find out that i'm in an high rated division... again as folks have said before I'm not sure why.
Information is good, and that pattern is a good find. Honestly I wish they would just pool all of diamond into one pile though... Top 6-8% of players should be competitive enough not to want these goofy divisions.
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On November 20 2010 09:20 VonLego wrote:
Interesting to find out that i'm in an high rated division... again as folks have said before I'm not sure why.
Information is good, and that pattern is a good find. Honestly I wish they would just pool all of diamond into one pile though... Top 6-8% of players should be competitive enough not to want these goofy divisions.
I believe that's where master and grand master leagues come into play.
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EPT
