EPTMy being sheriff wouldn't really benefit the mafia anyway. I'm using my incarceration power the way the town wants me too.
Like I said, I will be incarcerating meeple unless the town can think of a superior alternative.
Incognito's TL Mafia XVI - Page 75
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
My being sheriff wouldn't really benefit the mafia anyway. I'm using my incarceration power the way the town wants me too. Like I said, I will be incarcerating meeple unless the town can think of a superior alternative. | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
If keit is green, lynch me if you must. | ||
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Ng5
702 Posts
G'nite people. As I said before. Vote or die. | ||
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Ng5
702 Posts
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citi.zen
2509 Posts
On January 27 2010 12:47 Mystlord wrote: It's a fair case to lynch DH, but we HAVE to consider the possibility that the DT who clue checked DH is mafia. Earlier, we saw a fair case to lynch DH based off of the thin knife clue brought up by keit, but it never gained traction considering how much steam the kane]deth[ idea had. At this point, a mafia member could have thought to sow the seeds of confusion and make a plot to lynch DH. At this point, the fact of the matter is that either keit or DoctorHelvetica is innocent. One is absolutely a townie, because we cannot have two people making such great pushes for each other to be lynched as both mafia. Therefore, the possible combinations are: mafia vs townie and townie vs townie. I personally highly doubt a townie vs townie situation because of the fact that by lynching the other, the person pushing for the lynch will almost certainly appear innocent. Therefore, I believe that we have a mafia vs townie situation. In that line of thinking, confirming the identity of one will confirm the identity of the other. By lynching DH, we'll know keit's true colors, and by lynching keit, we'll know DH's true colors. Therefore, the question now becomes who to lynch? My personal vote is for keit. Here's my reasoning: If we lynch DoctorHelvetica, we lose a vital power that will almost certainly confirm whether a person is mafia or not, as well as protect a vital blue or townie (if things get that desperate). Therefore, in this situation, where we're unsure as to the guilt or innocence of either player, we have to make the decision to try and save our powers as best as possible, especially considering the fact that we have lynched no mafia. Therefore, we have a lot more to lose from lynching DoctorHelvetica and finding out that he's green/blue, versus lynching keit and finding out that he's green/blue. One final point on this. We have to realize that at this point, we for sure for sure have at least two clues on one mafia member. We have 8 clues for 7 mafia, so we're looking for repeating themes. If there's one repeating theme that I've seen, it's almost certainly referring to the cookie monster. Whether it's the apple shoving down the throat from day 1, or the barbarous nature of either the 2nd or 3rd attack from day 2, we've seen a lot more evidence pointing to keit than to DH. Therefore, I again emphasize my vote to lynch keit. In case you haven't been reading between the lines Myst, I will either use the vigilante hit or one of the double lynches against you if DrH turns red. The fact that you (again) agree with DrH thus fails to impress me much. | ||
flamewheel
FREEAGLELAND26780 Posts
On January 27 2010 12:25 DoctorHelvetica wrote: Neither my or keit's behavior makes sense of both of us are mafia. If we were both mafia, it would make zero sense for him to accuse me in the first place, much less for me to strongly advocate his lynching. If mafia are going to vote for mafia, wouldn't they bandwagon onto it rather than start the bandwagon themselves? False. At this point, I think it is safe to assume that we, the town, are close to catching at least one mafia. For one mafia member to throw the others into the pit at this point by vehemently attacking him would remove suspicion on himself. | ||
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[NyC]HoBbes
United States803 Posts
On January 27 2010 12:47 Mystlord wrote: It's a fair case to lynch DH, but we HAVE to consider the possibility that the DT who clue checked DH is mafia. Earlier, we saw a fair case to lynch DH based off of the thin knife clue brought up by keit, but it never gained traction considering how much steam the kane]deth[ idea had. At this point, a mafia member could have thought to sow the seeds of confusion and make a plot to lynch DH. At this point, the fact of the matter is that either keit or DoctorHelvetica is innocent. One is absolutely a townie, because we cannot have two people making such great pushes for each other to be lynched as both mafia. Therefore, the possible combinations are: mafia vs townie and townie vs townie. I personally highly doubt a townie vs townie situation because of the fact that by lynching the other, the person pushing for the lynch will almost certainly appear innocent. Therefore, I believe that we have a mafia vs townie situation. In that line of thinking, confirming the identity of one will confirm the identity of the other. By lynching DH, we'll know keit's true colors, and by lynching keit, we'll know DH's true colors. Therefore, the question now becomes who to lynch? My personal vote is for keit. Here's my reasoning: If we lynch DoctorHelvetica, we lose a vital power that will almost certainly confirm whether a person is mafia or not, as well as protect a vital blue or townie (if things get that desperate). Therefore, in this situation, where we're unsure as to the guilt or innocence of either player, we have to make the decision to try and save our powers as best as possible, especially considering the fact that we have lynched no mafia. Therefore, we have a lot more to lose from lynching DoctorHelvetica and finding out that he's green/blue, versus lynching keit and finding out that he's green/blue. One final point on this. We have to realize that at this point, we for sure for sure have at least two clues on one mafia member. We have 8 clues for 7 mafia, so we're looking for repeating themes. If there's one repeating theme that I've seen, it's almost certainly referring to the cookie monster. Whether it's the apple shoving down the throat from day 1, or the barbarous nature of either the 2nd or 3rd attack from day 2, we've seen a lot more evidence pointing to keit than to DH. Therefore, I again emphasize my vote to lynch keit. Killing keit will not reveal Dr.H's true colors. Even though I currently suspect Dr.H, if we kill keit and he turns up green, all this shows us is that we have once again mis-analyzed the clues. It does not necessarily mean that Dr.H is mafia, anymore than any of our other incorrect lynches have proved that the people who suggested them were mafia. If we kill keit and he turns up red, that could just suggest that the Mafia decided to sacrifice one of their least active members to save their biggest, most active member, which would not be such a bad strategy. | ||
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meeple
Canada10211 Posts
Well... to put it out there, keit very well might've gotten bored with the game and offered to sac himself for the better of the mafia, so they would continue to have a person in power. He posted this earlier: On January 26 2010 17:50 keit wrote: Yes you should lynch me. And when I questioned him about DrH's accusations against him he sent me this PM back: keit:Nah, no defense. Vote me out this game is fucking gay. ----------------------------------------- Original Message: meIs there any defense you have for DrH's accusations? The clues don't fit all too much, but I still want to hear something from you. | ||
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[NyC]HoBbes
United States803 Posts
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Mystlord
United States10264 Posts
On January 27 2010 12:59 [NyC]HoBbes wrote: Killing keit will not reveal Dr.H's true colors. Even though I currently suspect Dr.H, if we kill keit and he turns up green, all this shows us is that we have once again mis-analyzed the clues. It does not necessarily mean that Dr.H is mafia, anymore than any of our other incorrect lynches have proved that the people who suggested them were mafia. If we kill keit and he turns up red, that could just suggest that the Mafia decided to sacrifice one of their least active members to save their biggest, most active member, which would not be such a bad strategy. I still don't see the reasoning behind the fact that keit brought up the clue reference in the first place. If it wasn't for him, DoctorHelvetica would never have been accused. Why would a mafia initiate the charges against DH? It would make sense if DH was already under heavy suspicion and keit become the primary advocate of lynching DH and brought up that clue reference, but that isn't the case here. However, I do see your point. I still feel that if we lose the incarceration power, we're in some deep shit. @citi.zen: Yes, I could tell that you would vote to lynch me if DoctorHelvetica flipped red. I know that you won't believe me when I say that my argument is in favor of the town, but it is. Regardless of whether or not you agree, I'd at least like for you to respond to my argument rather than merely brush it off as an attempt to save my own skin. I acknowledge that DoctorHelvetica might be guilty, but I fear rushing into lynching an important townie much more. Wait a second... If the Sheriff gets lynched, do we have another election to vote for a new Sheriff to replace DH? If so, then my argument is moot. | ||
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Mystlord
United States10264 Posts
On January 27 2010 13:17 meeple wrote: Wow... just getting caught up. Well... to put it out there, keit very well might've gotten bored with the game and offered to sac himself for the better of the mafia, so they would continue to have a person in power. He posted this earlier: And when I questioned him about DrH's accusations against him he sent me this PM back: That's certainly interesting. Not sure exactly how that plays into things though. | ||
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ilovepandas
United States22 Posts
i think we should double lynch mystlord and flamewheel first. the thick air strongly suggests mystlord (although the spelling is off, i'm sure most people have interpreted myst as mist). the evidence against keit doesn't incriminate him perfectly, but it works to some degree. i don't think we need to lynch him because he isn't active or a major contributor + he doesn't want to play, so he'll probably get modkilled. i don't remember what the flamewheel clue was, but it seems like a lot of people agreed that it pointed to him. if we lynch dochelvetica before all of them and he turns out blue, it would hurt us more. although the thin blade clue from night 1 seems to point to doc, the other clues are just as incriminating imo. so if we don't get any mafia members in the double lynch, we'll go for dochelvetica, since the next most obvious clue points to him. if dochelvetica turns out red, it'd put us back into the game. if he's actually blue, gg. if we get 1 or 2 mafia in the double lynch, we can still go for dochelvetica if the new clues point to him or if someone provides an impeccable argument incriminating him. i might be too trusting of DocH, but from what he's contributed, i think he deserves more time to prove himself innocent. also, even if dochelvetica is red, it won't matter that much if we keep him alive for another day or two because he's still a major contributor. if we can interpret what he says for ourselves, he'd still be helping us win. as long as we can lower the KP by interpreting the strongest clues, we'd be heading in the right direction. | ||
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meeple
Canada10211 Posts
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citi.zen
2509 Posts
On January 27 2010 13:23 Mystlord wrote: I still don't see the reasoning behind the fact that keit brought up the clue reference in the first place. If it wasn't for him, DoctorHelvetica would never have been accused. Why would a mafia initiate the charges against DH? It would make sense if DH was already under heavy suspicion and keit become the primary advocate of lynching DH and brought up that clue reference, but that isn't the case here. However, I do see your point. I still feel that if we lose the incarceration power, we're in some deep shit. @citi.zen: Yes, I could tell that you would vote to lynch me if DoctorHelvetica flipped red. I know that you won't believe me when I say that my argument is in favor of the town, but it is. Regardless of whether or not you agree, I'd at least like for you to respond to my argument rather than merely brush it off as an attempt to save my own skin. I acknowledge that DoctorHelvetica might be guilty, but I fear rushing into lynching an important townie much more. Wait a second... If the Sheriff gets lynched, do we have another election to vote for a new Sheriff to replace DH? If so, then my argument is moot. Hobbes answered you already, and you seem to acknowledge that above (bolded): keit is not on the critical information path. His lynching will not even give us useful information about DrH, let alone yield 2 other clear suspects. | ||
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ilovepandas
United States22 Posts
On January 27 2010 13:42 meeple wrote: ^ edit?? i'm a perfectionist  | ||
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citi.zen
2509 Posts
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meeple
Canada10211 Posts
Erm well you're not allowed to edit posts in this game... | ||
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ilovepandas
United States22 Posts
it was originally "as long as we can lower the KP, we'd be heading in the right direction." thanks for making a big deal out of it  | ||
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[NyC]HoBbes
United States803 Posts
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ilovepandas
United States22 Posts
On January 27 2010 13:48 meeple wrote: Erm well you're not allowed to edit posts in this game... whoops. i really had no idea there was that rule. sorry. hope that doesn't entail getting modkilled | ||
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