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Incognito's TL Mafia XVI - Page 76

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[NyC]HoBbes
Profile Blog Joined January 2010
United States803 Posts
January 27 2010 04:56 GMT
#1501
On January 27 2010 13:53 derfboy wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 27 2010 13:48 meeple wrote:
On January 27 2010 13:46 derfboy wrote:
On January 27 2010 13:42 meeple wrote:
^ edit??


i'm a perfectionist


Erm well you're not allowed to edit posts in this game...


whoops. i really had no idea there was that rule. sorry. hope that doesn't entail getting modkilled


It doesn't, unless you do it repetitively
Where'er you walk cool gales shall fan the glade
citi.zen
Profile Joined April 2009
2509 Posts
January 27 2010 05:00 GMT
#1502
On January 27 2010 13:37 derfboy wrote:
Ng5's right. this next decision will determine the outcome of the game. we can't afford to go about this hastily.


We also can't waste any time, as long as mafia has 3xKP we're in pretty deep.

i think we should double lynch mystlord and flamewheel first. the thick air strongly suggests mystlord (although the spelling is off, i'm sure most people have interpreted myst as mist). the evidence against keit doesn't incriminate him perfectly, but it works to some degree. i don't think we need to lynch him because he isn't active or a major contributor + he doesn't want to play, so he'll probably get modkilled. i don't remember what the flamewheel clue was, but it seems like a lot of people agreed that it pointed to him. if we lynch dochelvetica before all of them and he turns out blue, it would hurt us more. although the thin blade clue from night 1 seems to point to doc, the other clues are just as incriminating imo.


A detective used a alleged clue-check to confirm the day one clue points to DrH. Either this is correct or not: either the "detective" is mafia or DrH is. No more vague and confusing clues, this lynching brings an actual answer.

so if we don't get any mafia members in the double lynch, we'll go for dochelvetica, since the next most obvious clue points to him. if dochelvetica turns out red, it'd put us back into the game. if he's actually blue, gg. if we get 1 or 2 mafia in the double lynch, we can still go for dochelvetica if the new clues point to him or if someone provides an impeccable argument incriminating him.


I think we actually need 3 mafia dead by the end of the double lynch to stand a decent chance. We need the KP lowered to 2. We have to use the hard information, not place our hope in a multi-step vague process predicated on future clues which may or may not be stronger.

i might be too trusting of DocH, but from what he's contributed, i think he deserves more time to prove himself innocent. also, even if dochelvetica is red, it won't matter that much if we keep him alive for another day or two because he's still a major contributor. if we can interpret what he says for ourselves, he'd still be helping us win. as long as we can lower the KP by interpreting the strongest clues, we'd be heading in the right direction.


As a matter of fact, DrH's interpretation of the day 3 clues leaves a lot to be desired. He failed to acknowledge obvious connections even when asked point blank. You can call it consistent behavior, but to me it is suspect precisely because I hold him in higher regard than this - he is a smart guy. There is no way he would miss the Mystlord connection here:

On January 27 2010 02:32 citi.zen wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 26 2010 22:52 citi.zen wrote:
what do we make of this:

Zona noticed that even the air was gradually growing harsh and stifling. He was starting to have difficulty breathing. The thick air stuck to the back of his throat and filled his nostrils, making him feel dizzy and drowsy. He tried to fight the sensation but couldn't and keeled over, unconscious. A man with a scarf wrapped around his face appeared above him, looking perfectly at home in the oppressive atmosphere.


Finally a live one! Any guesses on the above Dr?


On January 27 2010 02:57 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
Clue 2, I don't have any suspect for it.
Aut viam inveniam, aut faciam.
flamewheel
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
FREEAGLELAND26781 Posts
January 27 2010 05:02 GMT
#1503
On January 27 2010 13:37 derfboy wrote:
Ng5's right. this next decision will determine the outcome of the game. we can't afford to go about this hastily.

i think we should double lynch mystlord and flamewheel first. the thick air strongly suggests mystlord (although the spelling is off, i'm sure most people have interpreted myst as mist). the evidence against keit doesn't incriminate him perfectly, but it works to some degree. i don't think we need to lynch him because he isn't active or a major contributor + he doesn't want to play, so he'll probably get modkilled. i don't remember what the flamewheel clue was, but it seems like a lot of people agreed that it pointed to him. if we lynch dochelvetica before all of them and he turns out blue, it would hurt us more. although the thin blade clue from night 1 seems to point to doc, the other clues are just as incriminating imo.

so if we don't get any mafia members in the double lynch, we'll go for dochelvetica, since the next most obvious clue points to him. if dochelvetica turns out red, it'd put us back into the game. if he's actually blue, gg. if we get 1 or 2 mafia in the double lynch, we can still go for dochelvetica if the new clues point to him or if someone provides an impeccable argument incriminating him.

i might be too trusting of DocH, but from what he's contributed, i think he deserves more time to prove himself innocent. also, even if dochelvetica is red, it won't matter that much if we keep him alive for another day or two because he's still a major contributor. if we can interpret what he says for ourselves, he'd still be helping us win. as long as we can lower the KP by interpreting the strongest clues, we'd be heading in the right direction.


Bolded parts are done by me for emphasis.

Bold 1: See 'Bold 2' for clarification. If you are all about not being hasty, you should be more thorough.

Bold 2: Us voting for the double lynch applies to tomorrow's day cycle, not today's. We cannot double lynch today. Again, at this point you should learn the rules, read the posts, analyze clues yourself, and essentially not contradict yourself.

Bold 3: This is a good point. No need to waste the lynch on Keit.

Bolds 3 and 4 are adjacent to one another.

Bold 4: Bandwagoner. Enough said. Call me aggressive on this, but the people who I have talked to know my stance on bandwagoning, especially when it's as clueless as this. If you're going to accuse, at least know why you are accusing.

Yes, this is a direct attack on derfboy, though people reading this cannot call me a "flamer." He is largely inactive, except for the voting, and based on opinion, that should make him suspicious. The fact that he pops up now in this pseudo-defense (stalling?) of DrH compounds the suspicion in my eyes.

Bold 5: At this point in the game, we as the town are in a dire situation. If we fail to act now, all is lost. Fanciful rhetoric aside, what I am saying is this:
We have lost both our bodyguards. Therefore, the medics themselves have to protect the elected officials, and their protection may not be enough. Even if they do protect, the rest of the town is open, leading to potshots by mafia that could snipe other blues, even the medics themselves. On the other hand, this "incarceration" power can save two people--potentially, or it could end up locking blues away from their powers while the mafia runs free. In short, what I believe is that the risk of leaving the most active (and therefore for bandwagon'ed sheep, the most influential) poster (potentially mafia) alive and able to divide the town and cause medics to effectively lose their powers outweighs the loss of the incarceration power. Furthermore, I know it applies to others as well and not just DrH, but the colour of the lynched victim can shed light on those who affected/were affected by him.

If we do not act today/tonight, we lose.

Bold 6: Blind trust is a bad thing in this game. In response to the "he deserves more time" thing, he has 24 hours to present his case. Based on how much he has posted, his status as a writer, and his activity in this thread, if he has a defense he should be able to and (sensibly) post it.

Now people, this is the type of post I will be making as soon as I am able to free up more time. I will be going through all the inconclusive or extended (both opinionated and factual) to post both my own objective and opinionated ideas. For those of you who say "opinions are bad," this game is played with intuition as well as clues, and while the "gut feeling" is not as great as having solid, factual evidence, it is somewhere to start and can lead to better results.
Writerdamn, i was two days from retirement
flamewheel
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
FREEAGLELAND26781 Posts
January 27 2010 05:03 GMT
#1504
Darn it, citi.zen, your post beat out mine timing-wise
Writerdamn, i was two days from retirement
[NyC]HoBbes
Profile Blog Joined January 2010
United States803 Posts
January 27 2010 05:06 GMT
#1505
derfboy, why do you suddenly start being active right now to defend DrH, and to instead accuse someone while admitting you don't know why you're accusing them. Seems to me to be not only suspicious, but just plain nonsensical
Where'er you walk cool gales shall fan the glade
Mystlord *
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
United States10264 Posts
January 27 2010 05:06 GMT
#1506
So you're going to lynch based on the fact that my name is "close enough" to the word "mist"? I cannot see the logical connection that you're making there. This is what my name is actually referring to:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myst

I'm posting that link because it seems that people are stymied as to an alternative interpretation of the first half of my name.
It is impossible to be a citizen if you don't make an effort to understand the most basic activities of your government. It is very difficult to thrive in an increasingly competitive world if you're a nation of doods.
citi.zen
Profile Joined April 2009
2509 Posts
January 27 2010 05:07 GMT
#1507
On January 27 2010 14:06 [NyC]HoBbes wrote:
derfboy, why do you suddenly start being active right now to defend DrH, and to instead accuse someone while admitting you don't know why you're accusing them. Seems to me to be not only suspicious, but just plain nonsensical


That's why it has been a fun day watching people on the forum, both before and after my big post. Also why we must lynch DrH.
Aut viam inveniam, aut faciam.
[NyC]HoBbes
Profile Blog Joined January 2010
United States803 Posts
January 27 2010 05:09 GMT
#1508
On January 27 2010 14:06 Mystlord wrote:
So you're going to lynch based on the fact that my name is "close enough" to the word "mist"? I cannot see the logical connection that you're making there. This is what my name is actually referring to:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myst

I'm posting that link because it seems that people are stymied as to an alternative interpretation of the first half of my name.


1. We're not lynching you right now, we are possibly lynching you in the future, mainly based on your posts relative to DoctorHelvetica.

2. The clues are not based on your interpretation of your username, but on the person creating the clues' interpretation of your username.
Where'er you walk cool gales shall fan the glade
flamewheel
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
FREEAGLELAND26781 Posts
January 27 2010 05:11 GMT
#1509
Furthermore, derfboy, why do you advocate lynching Mystlord and myself when your vote is under keit?
Writerdamn, i was two days from retirement
flamewheel
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
FREEAGLELAND26781 Posts
January 27 2010 05:13 GMT
#1510
Oh and on that point, thank you for all the streams Mystlord.
Writerdamn, i was two days from retirement
citi.zen
Profile Joined April 2009
2509 Posts
January 27 2010 05:15 GMT
#1511
On January 27 2010 14:06 Mystlord wrote:
So you're going to lynch based on the fact that my name is "close enough" to the word "mist"? I cannot see the logical connection that you're making there. This is what my name is actually referring to:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myst

I'm posting that link because it seems that people are stymied as to an alternative interpretation of the first half of my name.


You are very likely red if DrH turns red. It is your behavior, as much as the clues that raise questions at this time. Even now you are trying to suggest stalling and going after keit/free/etc. instead of following the hard evidence obtained by lynching DrH. You are further trying to confuse matters by suggesting that either keit or DrH, but not both, have to be red - when this is clearly not the case at this point int the game. I just don't see it, sorry. It is not personal, I never even really suspected you before today.
Aut viam inveniam, aut faciam.
flamewheel
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
FREEAGLELAND26781 Posts
January 27 2010 05:17 GMT
#1512
Seriously, who is this "free" guy >.>
Writerdamn, i was two days from retirement
citi.zen
Profile Joined April 2009
2509 Posts
January 27 2010 05:18 GMT
#1513
LOL - clearly dyslexic, sorry "flame"!
Aut viam inveniam, aut faciam.
Mystlord *
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
United States10264 Posts
January 27 2010 05:23 GMT
#1514
On January 27 2010 14:09 [NyC]HoBbes wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 27 2010 14:06 Mystlord wrote:
So you're going to lynch based on the fact that my name is "close enough" to the word "mist"? I cannot see the logical connection that you're making there. This is what my name is actually referring to:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myst

I'm posting that link because it seems that people are stymied as to an alternative interpretation of the first half of my name.


1. We're not lynching you right now, we are possibly lynching you in the future, mainly based on your posts relative to DoctorHelvetica.

2. The clues are not based on your interpretation of your username, but on the person creating the clues' interpretation of your username.

1. Fair enough, I'm just posting this here to let you know this for the future.

2. Also fair, but Myst is (was) a fairly popular game, so I wouldn't be surprised if the cluemakers knew of it. In fact, I would definitely not say that they would interpret my name as such if they cannot figure out what it means.

I only ask that you not be so closed-minded and at least recognize the fact that there's a possibility that I'm a townie.

In fact, if a DT is free tonight, I would consider it logical to clue check the 2nd killing. You might consider it a selfish act, but feel free to not clue check it if you have more pressing concerns.
It is impossible to be a citizen if you don't make an effort to understand the most basic activities of your government. It is very difficult to thrive in an increasingly competitive world if you're a nation of doods.
[NyC]HoBbes
Profile Blog Joined January 2010
United States803 Posts
January 27 2010 05:27 GMT
#1515
On January 27 2010 14:23 Mystlord wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 27 2010 14:09 [NyC]HoBbes wrote:
On January 27 2010 14:06 Mystlord wrote:
So you're going to lynch based on the fact that my name is "close enough" to the word "mist"? I cannot see the logical connection that you're making there. This is what my name is actually referring to:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myst

I'm posting that link because it seems that people are stymied as to an alternative interpretation of the first half of my name.


1. We're not lynching you right now, we are possibly lynching you in the future, mainly based on your posts relative to DoctorHelvetica.

2. The clues are not based on your interpretation of your username, but on the person creating the clues' interpretation of your username.

1. Fair enough, I'm just posting this here to let you know this for the future.

2. Also fair, but Myst is (was) a fairly popular game, so I wouldn't be surprised if the cluemakers knew of it. In fact, I would definitely not say that they would interpret my name as such if they cannot figure out what it means.

I only ask that you not be so closed-minded and at least recognize the fact that there's a possibility that I'm a townie.

In fact, if a DT is free tonight, I would consider it logical to clue check the 2nd killing. You might consider it a selfish act, but feel free to not clue check it if you have more pressing concerns.


First, no one ever said you were certainly mafia. People have said that if DrH is mafia, it is likely that you are mafia, which is very different from saying that we know you're mafia no matter what.

Secondly, we need to lynch DrH to find out if we have a reliable DT, as has been said many times in previous posts.
Where'er you walk cool gales shall fan the glade
flamewheel
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
FREEAGLELAND26781 Posts
January 27 2010 05:32 GMT
#1516
I thought of something:
So obviously there are red herrings in the clues (or at least, things that we have misinterpreted), as we have been accusing townies and killing them.

But, for the mods, if they will deign to answer:
We all know the unfortunate position of the miller, he who perceives himself to be town but is thought of as not. Does he get clues written about him, as if he were a mafia member?
Writerdamn, i was two days from retirement
meeple
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Canada10211 Posts
January 27 2010 05:35 GMT
#1517
On January 27 2010 14:32 flamewheel91 wrote:
I thought of something:
So obviously there are red herrings in the clues (or at least, things that we have misinterpreted), as we have been accusing townies and killing them.

But, for the mods, if they will deign to answer:
We all know the unfortunate position of the miller, he who perceives himself to be town but is thought of as not. Does he get clues written about him, as if he were a mafia member?


He would have to right? Otherwise how would we ever guess?
Incognito
Profile Joined November 2008
United States2071 Posts
January 27 2010 05:35 GMT
#1518
Millers flip red to Role Checks. They are townies in every other way. So no, there are no clues pointing to millers.
The bureaucracy is expanding to meet the needs of the expanding bureaucracy
Mystlord *
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
United States10264 Posts
January 27 2010 05:41 GMT
#1519
On January 27 2010 14:15 citi.zen wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 27 2010 14:06 Mystlord wrote:
So you're going to lynch based on the fact that my name is "close enough" to the word "mist"? I cannot see the logical connection that you're making there. This is what my name is actually referring to:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myst

I'm posting that link because it seems that people are stymied as to an alternative interpretation of the first half of my name.


You are very likely red if DrH turns red. It is your behavior, as much as the clues that raise questions at this time. Even now you are trying to suggest stalling and going after keit/free/etc. instead of following the hard evidence obtained by lynching DrH. You are further trying to confuse matters by suggesting that either keit or DrH, but not both, have to be red - when this is clearly not the case at this point int the game. I just don't see it, sorry. It is not personal, I never even really suspected you before today.

I'm only advocating a keit lynch because I believed that it would almost certainly reveal who was mafia and who wasn't. However, in the wake of the accusations against me, I kind of lost track of the keit vs DH lynch. Regardless, I just fear that the loss of the incarceration power would set us back by quite a bit especially since we've lost both bodyguards, so both DH and meeple are open to attack and we'd need to use up a medic on them each night. Incarceration would allow us to protect an extra townie, which might end up being crucial to our victory.

However, I'm a bit less certain now about my theory, because I thought the mafia was too premature in attempting to find DH innocent at the cost of keit, but obviously you can never count out the mafia...

Uhh I can't think right now. I'll come back and see what everyone else has posted after I've finished streaming Winner's League.
It is impossible to be a citizen if you don't make an effort to understand the most basic activities of your government. It is very difficult to thrive in an increasingly competitive world if you're a nation of doods.
flamewheel
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
FREEAGLELAND26781 Posts
January 27 2010 05:42 GMT
#1520
Ah... okay. That clarifies things for me.

Thanks for the (ridiculously) quick reply, Incognito!
Writerdamn, i was two days from retirement
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