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Trfel
7015 Posts
That's fair though, I do recall that post by AlphaZero casting a ton of doubt on anyone having a strong read on Kelsi3r being weird. In fact, I think most everyone besides himself has a strong opinion on Kelsi3r, one way or another? I'd forgotten about this, that's a very good point. I was reading rsoultin's filter out of boredom, I'll try and look at AlphaZero's play through this lens in a bit and see if it fits. | ||
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AlphaZero
Korea (South)759 Posts
On June 08 2024 14:42 Mocsta wrote: because there has been resistance so it just clouds discussion when a few people were yet to post i.e. put into monitor basket. I would summarise AZ style of play as pulling up inconsistencies and letting others draw conclusions. it is the missing conclusion that i refer to as withhold.. im not talking about withholding reads, those have been aired yet are all over the place and everything is contingent on something else which i associate as a scum thing to do. scott, trfel, Like one thing I cannot get past is that AZ is defending Kelsier as if he is a town-read, yet calls him "very null" to the point that anyone attacking is super sus.. I just struggle to see town being this hedged. Literally the only thing about kelsier in his filter is: I’d hardly call that defending him the first part was pointing out your hypocrisy The second was not understanding the scum read on him which is entirely consistent with my strong null read. I think my points on Scott are the best scumhunting that has happened this game. And I have a good set of town reads. Now that I think about it I’m playing really well. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
I'm curious about your push on scott31337. I get where you're coming from, but in my experience with scott31337, the dude is incredibly lynchable at all times. I'm not sure if it's possible for him to make a post that doesn't have something scummy in it. Like I said, there was a game a while ago where I was mafia and I was pushing him and whenever he posted to defend himself, I'd just immediately quote that post and use it against him. Does this perspective have any bearing on your push, and if not, how are you differentiating the two? | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
In retrospect I'm not actually that happy with rsoultin's read transition from here to here. I mean she does explain it and Kelsi3r did post during that time so I guess I'm very likely being paranoid about nothing but even so it might be worth remembering. On June 08 2024 14:42 Mocsta wrote: Time to see if this holds up. I've been thinking about it while finishing the filter dive on rsoultin, as fun as it would be if this characterization is correct, my guess is that it isn't because there has been resistance so it just clouds discussion when a few people were yet to post i.e. put into monitor basket. I would summarise AZ style of play as pulling up inconsistencies and letting others draw conclusions. it is the missing conclusion that i refer to as withhold.. im not talking about withholding reads, those have been aired yet are all over the place and everything is contingent on something else which i associate as a scum thing to do. scott, trfel, Like one thing I cannot get past is that AZ is defending Kelsier as if he is a town-read, yet calls him "very null" to the point that anyone attacking is super sus.. I just struggle to see town being this hedged. Literally the only thing about kelsier in his filter is:  For some things AlphaZero has shared his thoughts/suspicions/insights and not pursued them a ton, but there are other things where he definitely has pursued it pretty hard. It's natural to assume that the latter variety, where he pushed his thoughts, are the ones that he's more passionate about. Which makes a lot of sense tbh. Specifically, see the stubbornness about the scott31337 push. I guess I'm a little hesitant to criticize AlphaZero for this because this description: I would summarise AZ style of play as pulling up inconsistencies and letting others draw conclusions. is kinda my playstyle? At least, it was for a long time and still kinda is now? So it's hard for me to say it's clearly scummy.it is the missing conclusion that i refer to as withhold.. List of AlphaZero's posts with interesting/meaningful thoughts + Show Spoiler + On June 07 2024 12:12 AlphaZero wrote: Vivax looks town. On June 07 2024 15:47 AlphaZero wrote: I agree with this analysis, but I don't see how this can co-exist with Trfel finding Vivax's vibe read on oats as weird. To me, this is a protracted version of the same read. I'm interested to see what you think of Vivax's read now trfel. On June 07 2024 21:36 AlphaZero wrote: I find it funny that mocsta called me out for needlessly nitpicking before nitpicking everything about kelsier's entry post that wasn't bad at all. I find his entrance to be forced, like he is trying too hard to find something scummy. I am interested in why truffles thinks he doesn't want to lynch mocsta today? Is it because Mocsta sheeped your push? On June 07 2024 21:37 AlphaZero wrote: I think Oats is town based on his recent posts. On June 08 2024 06:38 AlphaZero wrote: Oats and Sandro are top town. Trfel is really worrying me. On the surface is very pro town, but also playing in a clearly different way to his prior games. I don’t really like his scum reads at all. I don’t level as if he is being that proactive in getting kelsier lynched, even though he apparently strongly suspects him. And I find his reasoning for his scumreads much weaker than his other posts. I agree with a lot of his analysis but not when it comes to finding mafia… I think his Smurf hunting made more sense logically than his scum reads which bothers me. I wouldn’t lynch today, but if there is an active mafia hiding it’s this guy. Scott just looks bad to me, completely forgettable, aside from his question that has already been analysed I couldn’t tell you why exactly. His scum hunting just comes across as manufactured, Won’t lynch Marv today. Rso has felt town by vibe. Vivax I think is not consistently giving me good reasons to town read him Rayn is being Rayn. Pretty much null. Mocsta: looked better disengaging than when he was trying to do stuff. Don’t know what that means. Kelsier: anyone with a strong opinion here is sus. Very null. Rest need to post more or post more meaningful stuff. On June 08 2024 07:31 AlphaZero wrote: All that being said. Scott’s open is the scummiest thing to happen all game, and his later posting doesn’t really turn that around. On June 08 2024 07:46 AlphaZero wrote: Sandros catchup posting resonated with me. He seemed to be just comfortable putting things out there. Vivax im not sure anyone should how anyone could call him town right now. He looked ok initially. Recently pretty meh. On June 08 2024 08:17 AlphaZero wrote: I’ll lynch vivax with you oats. Vote:vivax On June 08 2024 08:49 AlphaZero wrote: Scott not considering the game state with my vivax read and what it means about my alignment is the second scummiest thing that happened this game. The first being Scott’s opening posts. Town circle activate! So there's kind of a lot there, but lemme try and summarize it: scott31337 is suspicious because of the opening thing with masons/whisperers and because he attacked AlphaZero for switching votes from Vivax to himself Vivax was town early on, later not so towny and voted for him Mocsta was suspicious as of post #271 but less so as of #479. See Mocsta's filter (page 2) to see Mocsta's posts in this range, in all honesty I'm not seeing the change in Mocsta's play that prompted this read change. Maybe just taking a step back from the argument would warrant this change in perspective, but idk. Weird thougths on me (Trfel) Null read on Kelsi3r A few townreads on other people (Oatsmaster, sandroba, rsoultin) Yeah, honestly I'm just not sold about Mocsta's characterization of AlphaZero's play yet. AlphaZero has been quite passionate about his scumread of scott31337, and he's also shown reasonable suspicion of Vivax and Mocsta at different points. However, I do think that sticking with a strong null read on Kelsi3r is quite interesting. I don't mind so much if AlphaZero has a null read on Kelsi3r, but it's hard for me to understand how someone could have such a big ego that if they can't get a read on someone, no one else can either. I know some people have massive egos but that's next level. I could maybe look into the weird things AlphaZero has said about me but I'm not convinced it ends up anywhere substantial. However, I am interested in the read switch on Mocsta, AlphaZero went from here: On June 07 2024 23:01 AlphaZero wrote: to here:I think there is a very good chance mocsta is mafia. There is a lot of bluster and attacking players which on the surface could look town aligned , but it doesn’t seem like he is genuinely trying to determine alignments to me. On June 08 2024 06:38 AlphaZero wrote: And looking at Mocsta's posts in the meantime, it's very hard for me to understand this change. It's possible AlphaZero just changed his perspective, but he said it was a change in Mocsta's posts, so idk.Mocsta: looked better disengaging than when he was trying to do stuff. Don’t know what that means. Don't think that makes AlphaZero mafia yet, but at least those are two reasons, even if not very strong. Side note, AlphaZero, could you please explain your townread on Oatsmaster? I've read his filter and summarized it (see here), you have a strong townread on Oatsmaster and I'm having a hard time understanding it. Where is the townread coming from? | ||
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Mocsta
Australia9387 Posts
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Trfel
7015 Posts
On June 08 2024 15:35 Mocsta wrote: to be confirmed = tbc On June 08 2024 02:30 rsoultin wrote: also tbc truffle looks good now <3 doesn't mean i don't want credit pfft marv i like that seems like the easiest read ever but whatevs, the pounce on sandy gave my good vibes even if he later got the dumbs and backed off over a kelsier townread On June 08 2024 10:21 rsoultin wrote: But that doesn't make sense lol same regarding rayn well az reminds me of another player whose scum game consists of buddying top townies (and by this i mean the 'good players' the community here generally listens to) and crawling so far up their asses he goes under the radar. idk that this is the same player but the interchange with marv is giving me those vibes. tbc marv is good, but i guess i mean the people who have the most pull if people are reading them town now i don't know that az's the same person or not so that's not reason enough to scumread him at all. but his view of the game also isn't aligning with mine on several fronts so those two things together earns him the rayn tier of i don't fucking know. i'm hoping if he's town that'll become clear in further discussion lol >< | ||
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Mocsta
Australia9387 Posts
az started strong so i could also be guilty of holding az to a higher expectation; yet i reckon rest of filter is a mess (with a reluctant admission  that there is some good stuff too).. like in my mind, if i removed the red flag posts out of his filter, it would be quite consistent actually so im slowly slowly reducing my expectation of az to betaone again a reason why im not going balls to the wall i still need to re look into scotts filter. will bbl | ||
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Mocsta
Australia9387 Posts
On June 08 2024 15:37 Trfel wrote: But that doesn't make sense wow.. new talk ey urban dictionary = true bro chill.. or more likely.. to be clear.. which does make sense | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Going to bed now, I'll be on my phone until I get tired, I have no idea how long that will take. However when I get tired I tend to get tired very quickly and thus won't be able to say that I am falling asleep, so if I stop posting, I most likely fell asleep. I'll be out for most of tomorrow, if you guys post a ton or have super deep analysis I'll likely fall behind until I can catch up in the evening (I'm not very good at playing mafia on my phone). Currently want to lynch Kelsi3r, confused and curious about scott31337 and Oatsmaster, a little intrigued by AlphaZero and Alakaslam. Guess I can read through die_meatbaby's filter now that she's been around a bit. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Interesting about AlphaZero/BetaOne, sorry for misinterpreting that. I'll keep thinking about it. I like how you actually looked at his filter and have reasons, that's very helpful. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Like I put in the effort to explain where I am coming from, I'd really appreciate a bit of help on this one. How should I be approaching this, if my current approach isn't good? | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
My question is, why not? If Oatsmaster did that before as mafia and he does it again, isn't that a giveaway and wouldn't it make him an easy lynch? I'd think you'd be thanking him for doing that in all honesty. Also I think it's really really funny that die_meatbaby asked AlphaZero for a previous game, that would completely delete the purpose of making a smurf account  Other than AlphaZero I have no idea who die_meatbaby suspects at all though. She said Vivax is town, and had a weak reason to townread rsoultin, but that was about it. In the end I don't have any meaningful impression of die_meatbaby's alignment but I think it will be more clear with more time. | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
Raynpelikoneet post #177 is confusing me, in my tired state I am having a hard time understanding what he is referring to. Also I'm a little confused why he strongly disagreed with me about Kelsi3r and then I pushed back and he said he agreed? I didn't really say anything new, just tried to rephrase it to make it more clear, I guess I'm just surprised that that actually made a difference tbh. No real reasons to suspect him though. Raynpelikoneet said he was going to be busy today so he would need to figure things out early but idk if he did that? He seemed mostly uninterested in the scott31337 stuff and back and forth on the Kelsi3r stuff. I don't actually know who he thinks is mafia, which is very much against what I expect from raynpelikoneet (regardless of alignment). Honestly that might be worth some thinking. Raynpelikoneet with one of the longest, if not the longest, filters in the game, and seemingly no scumreads? I'm confused, but I'm not so confident in raynpelikoneet being town anymore. Actually pretty suspicious. Mocsta and marvellosity look okay enough for now I think. Unfortunately I am not a Vivax whisperer, would love to understand all these incredible reads he has but I am not seeing what he is getting at. Oh well, what can I do | ||
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Mocsta
Australia9387 Posts
.your post #715 on oats I don't really get it I had a read of oats filter and didn't see the same things you raised. His filter is consistent focus and attitude/tone. He's kept prodding the same things regardless of buy in, which yes can be scummy. Yet. He's updating the read as the conviction increases which I find townie. There was a post early game about you and Ryan that stuck out to me and made me wonder about a scum duo of rayn and oats but that's really clutching at straws and nothing I intend to pursue. | ||
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Mocsta
Australia9387 Posts
Dmb filter is small and concise yet I find I have to really concentrate to not gloss over it.. it's like there is a focus/permission to concentrate on vivax and by extension oats and rest is playful interaction with no purpose that I can identify. May also fit into theory of not wanting to mason although that's not an argument as very hypothetical. Does dmb fit into town meta? I really can't be armed to dig through past games. Which then also is a point of curiosity that dmb made a big deal to requests Scotts past game history.. a glimpse of active and productive townie yet rest of filter doesn't align with that gusto | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
On June 08 2024 10:21 rsoultin wrote: lol same regarding rayn well az reminds me of another player whose scum game consists of buddying top townies (and by this i mean the 'good players' the community here generally listens to) and crawling so far up their asses he goes under the radar. idk that this is the same player but the interchange with marv is giving me those vibes. tbc marv is good, but i guess i mean the people who have the most pull if people are reading them town now i don't know that az's the same person or not so that's not reason enough to scumread him at all. but his view of the game also isn't aligning with mine on several fronts so those two things together earns him the rayn tier of i don't fucking know. i'm hoping if he's town that'll become clear in further discussion lol >< As a general comment, it’s sort of an interesting dichotomy going on here because your view of the game doesnt align with mine, where mine obviously aligns with sand (and az to a lesser extent). I don’t think it’s makes you mafia at all tbh (you still may or may not be), it just happens the way I think about stuff tends to be similar to sand, or palmar, or rayn, or hf. I guess I need to try parse this because 2 opposing world views are unlikely to both be right… Tbh I don’t know what mafia sand really looks like anymore but he’s probably gonna struggle to maintain positive activity given his meta (that’s what his old mafia games suggest anyway) so I think he’s a poor lynch today regardless. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
On June 08 2024 10:51 Trfel wrote: My main worry with Kelsi3r is that I worry I just bullied him out of the thread. Which wasn't my intention at all, but I could see the possibility of him taking it that way. I don't really think any other lynch makes sense right now though? I'm conflicted/unsure about Oatsmaster, a lot of people think he is town though. I'm hesitant to lynch scott31337. I think die_meatbaby, Alakaslam, sandroba, marvellosity, and Vivax would benefit from more time. Mocsta too, but I think it's a little easier to read him. It's a combination of Kelsi3r looking really suspicious and no one else looking like a sensible lynch target. Lynching scott31337 wouldn't be the worst thing in the world I guesssss but it would be very far from ideal imo. What part do you want me to explain? People haven't talked about suspecting AlphaZero very much so far. Most of what people have shared is that they are inclined to think they are town, tbh. So I think it's pretty ambitious to expect people's minds to change that dramatically, that quickly. Like, it takes time for discussion to happen and for people to share ideas. Also, it's typical to lynch a less active/involved player on Day 1, it's not a rule, it's just much more common. AlphaZero doesn't fit that mold. Those things combined make me think that realistically, AlphaZero is extremely unlikely to be lynched today, so with the deadline coming up, I'd rather start to focus on people who are more realistic targets. I don’t think this is kelsier character though, so I think you’re alright | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
On June 08 2024 12:58 Mocsta wrote: awww man, i dont even understand why im not fitting in woe is me i haven't engaged with vivax because i find his playstyle really polarising which is not conducive to scumhunting.. to be fair with vivax i really need other people to make cases that i can then internalise scott thats a fair call. i do have on my agenda to review now that he has more content which is what i was waiting for.. i was left underwhelmed with his posts when i caught up but did get a spider sense tingle from it. (i.e. underwhelmed beucase of stringing together BS) the player that makes me uncomfortable in the pit of my stomach is AZ, so hes my top scum read.. again. i dont have it as an agenda to push today for reasons i have already stated and are unchanged. will do a deep dive review on scott later today and i want to re-read sandroba people i am not open to lynching today are: oats, trfel, rsoultin, rayn, marv.. i didnt include az as if there was a wagon i would be all over that. Sorry if I missed it previously, but what is your case beyond the ick? | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
On June 08 2024 17:35 marvellosity wrote: Sorry if I missed it previously, but what is your case beyond the ick? Okay, you’ve just answered this, please ignore. | ||
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