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Now that we have a new thread, in order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a complete and thorough read before posting! NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.
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On February 25 2024 06:08 JimmiC wrote:Trump keeps it classy, I get why Dems are not crushing it with Black voters. But zi can’t imagine many casting a ballot for Trump! Show nested quote + At a Friday gala hosted by the Black Conservative Federation in Columbia, South Carolina, Trump cited his four indictments in saying that "Black people like me because they have been hurt so badly and discriminated against, and they actually viewed me as I’m being discriminated against.”
He also claimed that Black Americans have “embraced” his mug shot more than anyone else.
“It’s incredible. You see Black people walking around with my mug shot, you know they do shirts,” Trump said.
"Black people, walking around... you know they do shirts."
Trump is the best genius.
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To be fair, a lot of black people do sometimes walk around, and they often wear shirts.
Now, i couldn't name any group of people for whom that is not true, but...
(Actually a lie: People in wheelchairs don't do that)
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Northern Ireland22945 Posts
It’s remarkable that this would be disqualifying nonsense from like, any other politician and it’s relatively mild in Trump’s totem pole of ridiculously disqualifying rambles.
Has anyone ever seen a black person walking around with a Trump mugshot adorning them? As with that, answers on a t-shirt I suppose
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On February 25 2024 07:29 WombaT wrote:
It’s remarkable that this would be disqualifying nonsense from like, any other politician and it’s relatively mild in Trump’s totem pole of ridiculously disqualifying rambles.
Has anyone ever seen a black person walking around with a Trump mugshot adorning them? As with that, answers on a t-shirt I suppose
I’m sure there’s lots of things at Trump rallies that I’ve never seen myself
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Northern Ireland22945 Posts
On February 25 2024 07:36 BlackJack wrote:Show nested quote +On February 25 2024 07:29 WombaT wrote:
It’s remarkable that this would be disqualifying nonsense from like, any other politician and it’s relatively mild in Trump’s totem pole of ridiculously disqualifying rambles.
Has anyone ever seen a black person walking around with a Trump mugshot adorning them? As with that, answers on a t-shirt I suppose I’m sure there’s lots of things at Trump rallies that I’ve never seen myself
Aye I’ve never seen an attempt to storm a legislature with my own eyes, that’s a fair point.
As with all things in this domain, I assume the answer is never actually zero. But the cohort of ‘hey I suffer from societal discrimination due to my skin colour’ and ‘I think Trump suffers from discrimination’ must be pretty darn small.
Given the GOP’s direction of travel in recent years, and history.
At best one can say they believe we have already achieved a colourblind society, and one of merit outside those considerations. Or that issues in black communities are cultural in basis and can be tackled internally. Plenty of black voters believe that too, so they’re perfectly happy to vote for the GOP.
I find it hard believing that there are many who keenly feel racial discrimination, and that it’s still a running, pervasive concern who can possibly countenance voting for the GOP who have frequently, frequently been hostile to that worldview.
I realise the fundamental folly of trying to logic this out, but call me confuddled.
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On February 17 2024 19:55 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On February 17 2024 19:44 GreenHorizons wrote:
Turns out there's a way to express one's opposition to Biden's support of Israel's ethnic cleansing campaign through voting "uncommitted" in Michigan's primary
Something people may want to check if they have anything similar available in their state. Literally 0 pressure to vote for Biden in the primary so anyone can do it (if their state lets them). I think this is a reasonably good compromise, as it makes your voice heard during the primary without automatically helping Trump during the general election.
Not so much apparently. Voting "uncommitted" in Michigan's primary is actually a vote supporting Trump according to Michigan's Democrat Governor.
Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer tells CNN's Dana Bash "I understand the pain that people are feeling" over the war in Gaza but warns that "any vote that's not cast for Joe Biden supports a second Trump term."
edition.cnn.com
I'm increasingly believing the implied odds that give Biden just a ~33% chance of winning. Bad time for Democrats to have picked an avowed Zionist as their leader.
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United States41539 Posts
Biden has consistency pressured Israel to moderate their position in a way that no other realistic candidate for presidency would do. You continue to live in cloud cuckoo land. Biden is the pro Palestine candidate but you let perfect be the enemy of good.
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On February 26 2024 03:26 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On February 17 2024 19:55 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On February 17 2024 19:44 GreenHorizons wrote:Turns out there's a way to express one's opposition to Biden's support of Israel's ethnic cleansing campaign through voting "uncommitted" in Michigan's primary https://twitter.com/Listen2michigan/status/1758514217538216405Something people may want to check if they have anything similar available in their state. Literally 0 pressure to vote for Biden in the primary so anyone can do it (if their state lets them). I think this is a reasonably good compromise, as it makes your voice heard during the primary without automatically helping Trump during the general election. Not so much apparently. Voting "uncommitted" in Michigan's primary is actually a vote supporting Trump according to Michigan's Democrat Governor. Show nested quote +Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer tells CNN's Dana Bash "I understand the pain that people are feeling" over the war in Gaza but warns that "any vote that's not cast for Joe Biden supports a second Trump term." edition.cnn.comI'm increasingly believing the implied odds that give Biden just a ~33% chance of winning. Bad time for Democrats to have picked an avowed Zionist as their leader.
Democrats voted for him. There is no "picked"
I agree with Whitmer. We need a unified front and to stop letting bad actors try to divide us. Rashida Talib can kick rocks. Go vote for Trump if you think hes better for your cause. Im sure Dearborn will be thrilled with another attempted Muslim ban, because we all know thats what the Republican ghouls will be attempting. Stephen Miller couldn't give a single fuck about Palestinians
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On February 26 2024 03:26 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On February 17 2024 19:55 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On February 17 2024 19:44 GreenHorizons wrote:Turns out there's a way to express one's opposition to Biden's support of Israel's ethnic cleansing campaign through voting "uncommitted" in Michigan's primary https://twitter.com/Listen2michigan/status/1758514217538216405Something people may want to check if they have anything similar available in their state. Literally 0 pressure to vote for Biden in the primary so anyone can do it (if their state lets them). I think this is a reasonably good compromise, as it makes your voice heard during the primary without automatically helping Trump during the general election. Not so much apparently. Voting "uncommitted" in Michigan's primary is actually a vote supporting Trump according to Michigan's Democrat Governor. Show nested quote +Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer tells CNN's Dana Bash "I understand the pain that people are feeling" over the war in Gaza but warns that "any vote that's not cast for Joe Biden supports a second Trump term." edition.cnn.comI'm increasingly believing the implied odds that give Biden just a ~33% chance of winning. Bad time for Democrats to have picked an avowed Zionist as their leader.
That gambling website clearly can't be taken seriously. Looks at who's in third place, supposedly with a 14.3% chance of becoming president (despite it actually being a 0% chance). Michelle Obama. There's a 1-in-7 chance that she wins the presidential election? Really? lol. Placing a bet on the November results, especially in February, doesn't mean that those odds actually comport with reality.
The earliest polls seem to indicate a very slight lead for Trump over Biden, ranging around 1-5%, but even the polls are going to be inaccurate this early in the election cycle. (Source: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/ )
Maybe things progress to 60-40 or 70-30 in favor of Trump over time, or maybe Biden ends up with a respectable lead. We can speculate in a variety of different directions, using different criteria as our justifications. For example, Biden's primary victories were around 90%, whereas Trump's primary victories were only at around 60%. Those numbers certainly don't favor Trump. Will all of Haley's supporters fall in line behind Trump? We don't know, but probably not. There are also pockets of Never-Trump Republicans saying they would either stay home or actually vote for Biden, if (when) Trump becomes the official Republican nominee. Is that amount 1% of all Republicans? 5%? 10% We don't know. Additionally, we need to see the impact that Trump's continuous losses in the courts have on his supporters, over the next half-year. It may be the case that Trump loses more voters than Biden does. We really don't know how things are going to shake out.
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On February 26 2024 04:25 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On February 26 2024 03:26 GreenHorizons wrote:On February 17 2024 19:55 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On February 17 2024 19:44 GreenHorizons wrote:Turns out there's a way to express one's opposition to Biden's support of Israel's ethnic cleansing campaign through voting "uncommitted" in Michigan's primary https://twitter.com/Listen2michigan/status/1758514217538216405Something people may want to check if they have anything similar available in their state. Literally 0 pressure to vote for Biden in the primary so anyone can do it (if their state lets them). I think this is a reasonably good compromise, as it makes your voice heard during the primary without automatically helping Trump during the general election. Not so much apparently. Voting "uncommitted" in Michigan's primary is actually a vote supporting Trump according to Michigan's Democrat Governor. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer tells CNN's Dana Bash "I understand the pain that people are feeling" over the war in Gaza but warns that "any vote that's not cast for Joe Biden supports a second Trump term." edition.cnn.comI'm increasingly believing the implied odds that give Biden just a ~33% chance of winning. Bad time for Democrats to have picked an avowed Zionist as their leader. That gambling website clearly can't be taken seriously. Looks at who's in third place, supposedly with a 14.3% chance of becoming president (despite it actually being a 0% chance). Michelle Obama. There's really a 1-in-7 chance that she wins the presidential election? Really? lol. Placing a bet on the November results, especially in February, doesn't mean that those odds actually comport with reality. The earliest polls seem to indicate a very slight lead for Trump over Biden, ranging around 1-5%, but even the polls are going to be inaccurate this early in the election cycle. (Source: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/ ) Maybe things progress to 60-40 or 70-30 in favor of Trump over time, or maybe Biden ends up with a respectable lead. We can speculate in a variety of different directions, using different criteria as our justifications. For example, Biden's primary victories were around 90%, whereas Trump's primary victories were only at around 60%. Those numbers certainly don't favor Trump. There are also pockets of Never-Trump Republicans saying they would either stay home or actually vote for Biden, if (when) Trump becomes the official Republican nominee. Additionally, we need to see the impact that Trump's continuous losses in the courts have on his supporters, over the next half-year. It may be the case that Trump loses more voters than Biden does. We really don't know how things are going to shake out.
The site itself isn't really relevant, those are the ~implied odds across all gambling websites. It's true that the "true odds" are likely different, but still apparently favor Trump.
As for polling, Biden's problem isn't just that he's 1-5% behind Trump (and has been for months), it's that he's 6-10+% behind where he was polling in 2020 nationally when he squeaked out a win.
Perhaps more pressing than that, is that Biden is also ~10% behind his 2020 Michigan polling vs Trump, and Democrats need to win Michigan to win the presidency.
Comparing their primary victories thus far is silly, For example, Trump got more votes in SC than Biden has in all his primaries combined (Nikki Haley almost did too). Biden got less than half as many primary votes in SC in 2024 compared to 2020. Hell, Biden barely got more votes in SC's 2024 primary than Bernie did in their 2020 primary. en.wikipedia.org
Biden still has higher disapproval than Trump had at this point in his presidency (no one has ever won with it so high) and Trump currently has better favorability than Biden
It's true we can't know how it will shake out with certainty (likely not until some time after election day really), but it's abundantly clear Biden's in worse shape than he was in 2020 vs Trump when he barely won. Hence Whitmer (and rank and file types like Sadist) trying to shame/threaten people for even considering voting "Uncommitted" in Michigan's primary.
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On February 26 2024 05:53 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On February 26 2024 04:25 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On February 26 2024 03:26 GreenHorizons wrote:On February 17 2024 19:55 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On February 17 2024 19:44 GreenHorizons wrote:Turns out there's a way to express one's opposition to Biden's support of Israel's ethnic cleansing campaign through voting "uncommitted" in Michigan's primary https://twitter.com/Listen2michigan/status/1758514217538216405Something people may want to check if they have anything similar available in their state. Literally 0 pressure to vote for Biden in the primary so anyone can do it (if their state lets them). I think this is a reasonably good compromise, as it makes your voice heard during the primary without automatically helping Trump during the general election. Not so much apparently. Voting "uncommitted" in Michigan's primary is actually a vote supporting Trump according to Michigan's Democrat Governor. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer tells CNN's Dana Bash "I understand the pain that people are feeling" over the war in Gaza but warns that "any vote that's not cast for Joe Biden supports a second Trump term." edition.cnn.comI'm increasingly believing the implied odds that give Biden just a ~33% chance of winning. Bad time for Democrats to have picked an avowed Zionist as their leader. That gambling website clearly can't be taken seriously. Looks at who's in third place, supposedly with a 14.3% chance of becoming president (despite it actually being a 0% chance). Michelle Obama. There's really a 1-in-7 chance that she wins the presidential election? Really? lol. Placing a bet on the November results, especially in February, doesn't mean that those odds actually comport with reality. The earliest polls seem to indicate a very slight lead for Trump over Biden, ranging around 1-5%, but even the polls are going to be inaccurate this early in the election cycle. (Source: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/ ) Maybe things progress to 60-40 or 70-30 in favor of Trump over time, or maybe Biden ends up with a respectable lead. We can speculate in a variety of different directions, using different criteria as our justifications. For example, Biden's primary victories were around 90%, whereas Trump's primary victories were only at around 60%. Those numbers certainly don't favor Trump. There are also pockets of Never-Trump Republicans saying they would either stay home or actually vote for Biden, if (when) Trump becomes the official Republican nominee. Additionally, we need to see the impact that Trump's continuous losses in the courts have on his supporters, over the next half-year. It may be the case that Trump loses more voters than Biden does. We really don't know how things are going to shake out. The site itself isn't really relevant, those are the ~implied odds across all gambling websites. It's true that the "true odds" are likely different, but still apparently favor Trump. As for polling, Biden's problem isn't just that he's 1-5% behind Trump (and has been for months), it's that he's 6-10+% behind where he was polling in 2020 nationally when he squeaked out a win. Perhaps more pressing than that, is that Biden is also ~ 10% behind his 2020 Michigan polling vs Trump, and Democrats need to win Michigan to win the presidency. Comparing their primary victories thus far is silly, For example, Trump got more votes in SC than Biden has in all his primaries combined (Nikki Haley almost did too). Biden got less than half as many primary votes in SC in 2024 compared to 2020. Hell, Biden barely got more votes in SC's 2024 primary than Bernie did in their 2020 primary. en.wikipedia.orgBiden still has higher disapproval than Trump had at this point in his presidency (no one has ever won with it so high) and Trump currently has better favorability than BidenIt's true we can't know how it will shake out with certainty (likely not until some time after election day really), but it's abundantly clear Biden's in worse shape than he was in 2020 vs Trump when he barely won. Hence Whitmer (and rank and file types like Sadist) trying to shame/threaten people for even considering voting "Uncommitted" in Michigan's primary.
You're not making accurate comparisons with those links either. You're comparing February 2024 (half a year before the election) to October/November 2020 (right before the election). Feb 2020 is just as irrelevant as Feb 2024, and just because there happened to be consistency from Feb 2020 to Nov 2020 doesn't mean 2024 will have the same consistency. As I said before, we need to see how the next few months play out, so that we can compare October/November 2024 to October/November 2020. If Biden in Oct/Nov 2024 is polling significantly worse than Oct/Nov 2020, then the comparison will be justified. We can't know yet if this election's final polling will put Biden ahead, equal to, or behind last election's final polling for Biden - and we also know that polling doesn't guarantee an outcome. Last election, Biden polled ahead of Trump by a few points right before the vote, and he won. This election, Biden could poll behind Trump and still win, or ahead of Trump and still lose. Last election was pretty close to a coinflip, and 55-45 or even 60-40 in either direction for this election is still practically a coinflip.
Also, I think if you consider the populations of the states that have voted in the primaries so far, and just how deep red South Carolina is, you won't be surprised at the SC data you cited. South Carolina isn't even a swing state, but it may be interesting to see how the Republican primary plays out in swing states (if Haley stays around that long). But either way, a lot can happen in the spring, summer, and fall of 2024 to affect the November vote.
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Norway28489 Posts
On February 26 2024 05:53 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On February 26 2024 04:25 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On February 26 2024 03:26 GreenHorizons wrote:On February 17 2024 19:55 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On February 17 2024 19:44 GreenHorizons wrote:Turns out there's a way to express one's opposition to Biden's support of Israel's ethnic cleansing campaign through voting "uncommitted" in Michigan's primary https://twitter.com/Listen2michigan/status/1758514217538216405Something people may want to check if they have anything similar available in their state. Literally 0 pressure to vote for Biden in the primary so anyone can do it (if their state lets them). I think this is a reasonably good compromise, as it makes your voice heard during the primary without automatically helping Trump during the general election. Not so much apparently. Voting "uncommitted" in Michigan's primary is actually a vote supporting Trump according to Michigan's Democrat Governor. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer tells CNN's Dana Bash "I understand the pain that people are feeling" over the war in Gaza but warns that "any vote that's not cast for Joe Biden supports a second Trump term." edition.cnn.comI'm increasingly believing the implied odds that give Biden just a ~33% chance of winning. Bad time for Democrats to have picked an avowed Zionist as their leader. That gambling website clearly can't be taken seriously. Looks at who's in third place, supposedly with a 14.3% chance of becoming president (despite it actually being a 0% chance). Michelle Obama. There's really a 1-in-7 chance that she wins the presidential election? Really? lol. Placing a bet on the November results, especially in February, doesn't mean that those odds actually comport with reality. The earliest polls seem to indicate a very slight lead for Trump over Biden, ranging around 1-5%, but even the polls are going to be inaccurate this early in the election cycle. (Source: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/ ) Maybe things progress to 60-40 or 70-30 in favor of Trump over time, or maybe Biden ends up with a respectable lead. We can speculate in a variety of different directions, using different criteria as our justifications. For example, Biden's primary victories were around 90%, whereas Trump's primary victories were only at around 60%. Those numbers certainly don't favor Trump. There are also pockets of Never-Trump Republicans saying they would either stay home or actually vote for Biden, if (when) Trump becomes the official Republican nominee. Additionally, we need to see the impact that Trump's continuous losses in the courts have on his supporters, over the next half-year. It may be the case that Trump loses more voters than Biden does. We really don't know how things are going to shake out. The site itself isn't really relevant, those are the ~implied odds across all gambling websites. It's true that the "true odds" are likely different, but still apparently favor Trump. As for polling, Biden's problem isn't just that he's 1-5% behind Trump (and has been for months), it's that he's 6-10+% behind where he was polling in 2020 nationally when he squeaked out a win. Perhaps more pressing than that, is that Biden is also ~ 10% behind his 2020 Michigan polling vs Trump, and Democrats need to win Michigan to win the presidency. Comparing their primary victories thus far is silly, For example, Trump got more votes in SC than Biden has in all his primaries combined (Nikki Haley almost did too). Biden got less than half as many primary votes in SC in 2024 compared to 2020. Hell, Biden barely got more votes in SC's 2024 primary than Bernie did in their 2020 primary. en.wikipedia.orgBiden still has higher disapproval than Trump had at this point in his presidency (no one has ever won with it so high) and Trump currently has better favorability than BidenIt's true we can't know how it will shake out with certainty (likely not until some time after election day really), but it's abundantly clear Biden's in worse shape than he was in 2020 vs Trump when he barely won. Hence Whitmer (and rank and file types like Sadist) trying to shame/threaten people for even considering voting "Uncommitted" in Michigan's primary.
Some of the polling is worrisome and I don't think we should disregard those polls. However I don't think Biden getting fewer votes in a primary where he's essentially running unopposed compared to when it was an actual primary is all that relevant.
I'm also reading that the court cases against Trump are irrelevant (or even a boost) for republican voters but a pretty big deal for the undecided crowd (if he's found guilty), so I think waiting for that outcome is also important.
Tbh it seems like virtually everyone agrees that 'they should run somebody else than Biden' but that virtually everyone is also like 'but I dunno who' - or that when someone mentions someone else, other people are like 'but that guy has x disqualifying issue'. Biden himself deciding two years ago that he was going to be a one term president would've made everything easier, as then there would've been a real primary with hopefully a set of capable candidates making competent cases for themselves, but we don't have that. Instead we have Biden or bust.
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On February 26 2024 06:19 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On February 26 2024 05:53 GreenHorizons wrote:On February 26 2024 04:25 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On February 26 2024 03:26 GreenHorizons wrote:On February 17 2024 19:55 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On February 17 2024 19:44 GreenHorizons wrote:Turns out there's a way to express one's opposition to Biden's support of Israel's ethnic cleansing campaign through voting "uncommitted" in Michigan's primary https://twitter.com/Listen2michigan/status/1758514217538216405Something people may want to check if they have anything similar available in their state. Literally 0 pressure to vote for Biden in the primary so anyone can do it (if their state lets them). I think this is a reasonably good compromise, as it makes your voice heard during the primary without automatically helping Trump during the general election. Not so much apparently. Voting "uncommitted" in Michigan's primary is actually a vote supporting Trump according to Michigan's Democrat Governor. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer tells CNN's Dana Bash "I understand the pain that people are feeling" over the war in Gaza but warns that "any vote that's not cast for Joe Biden supports a second Trump term." edition.cnn.comI'm increasingly believing the implied odds that give Biden just a ~33% chance of winning. Bad time for Democrats to have picked an avowed Zionist as their leader. That gambling website clearly can't be taken seriously. Looks at who's in third place, supposedly with a 14.3% chance of becoming president (despite it actually being a 0% chance). Michelle Obama. There's really a 1-in-7 chance that she wins the presidential election? Really? lol. Placing a bet on the November results, especially in February, doesn't mean that those odds actually comport with reality. The earliest polls seem to indicate a very slight lead for Trump over Biden, ranging around 1-5%, but even the polls are going to be inaccurate this early in the election cycle. (Source: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/ ) Maybe things progress to 60-40 or 70-30 in favor of Trump over time, or maybe Biden ends up with a respectable lead. We can speculate in a variety of different directions, using different criteria as our justifications. For example, Biden's primary victories were around 90%, whereas Trump's primary victories were only at around 60%. Those numbers certainly don't favor Trump. There are also pockets of Never-Trump Republicans saying they would either stay home or actually vote for Biden, if (when) Trump becomes the official Republican nominee. Additionally, we need to see the impact that Trump's continuous losses in the courts have on his supporters, over the next half-year. It may be the case that Trump loses more voters than Biden does. We really don't know how things are going to shake out. The site itself isn't really relevant, those are the ~implied odds across all gambling websites. It's true that the "true odds" are likely different, but still apparently favor Trump. As for polling, Biden's problem isn't just that he's 1-5% behind Trump (and has been for months), it's that he's 6-10+% behind where he was polling in 2020 nationally when he squeaked out a win. Perhaps more pressing than that, is that Biden is also ~ 10% behind his 2020 Michigan polling vs Trump, and Democrats need to win Michigan to win the presidency. Comparing their primary victories thus far is silly, For example, Trump got more votes in SC than Biden has in all his primaries combined (Nikki Haley almost did too). Biden got less than half as many primary votes in SC in 2024 compared to 2020. Hell, Biden barely got more votes in SC's 2024 primary than Bernie did in their 2020 primary. en.wikipedia.orgBiden still has higher disapproval than Trump had at this point in his presidency (no one has ever won with it so high) and Trump currently has better favorability than BidenIt's true we can't know how it will shake out with certainty (likely not until some time after election day really), but it's abundantly clear Biden's in worse shape than he was in 2020 vs Trump when he barely won. Hence Whitmer (and rank and file types like Sadist) trying to shame/threaten people for even considering voting "Uncommitted" in Michigan's primary. You're not making accurate comparisons with those links either. You're comparing February 2024 (half a year before the election) to October/November 2020 (right before the election). Feb 2020 is just as irrelevant as Feb 2024, and just because there happened to be consistency from Feb 2020 to Nov 2020 doesn't mean 2024 will have the same consistency. As I said before, we need to see how the next few months play out, so that we can compare October/November 2024 to October/November 2020. If Biden in Oct/Nov 2024 is polling significantly worse than Oct/Nov 2020, then the comparison will be justified. We can't know yet if this election's final polling will put Biden ahead, equal to, or behind last election's final polling for Biden - and we also know that polling doesn't guarantee an outcome. Last election, Biden polled ahead of Trump by a few points right before the vote, and he won. This election, Biden could poll behind Trump and still win, or ahead of Trump and still lose. Last election was pretty close to a coinflip, and 55-45 or even 60-40 in either direction for this election is still practically a coinflip. Also, I think if you consider the populations of the states that have voted in the primaries so far, and just how deep red South Carolina is, you won't be surprised at the SC data you cited. South Carolina isn't even a swing state, but it may be interesting to see how the Republican primary plays out in swing states (if Haley stays around that long). But either way, a lot can happen in the spring, summer, and fall of 2024 to affect the November vote.
Well, I'm comparing Biden vs.Trump in Feb 2024 with Biden vs Trump in Feb 2020. It says: "This Day In History: February 25, 2020: Biden +4.3" to make the point that he's inarguably in worse shape now than he was at this point in the race in 2020, particularly in Michigan where "This Day in History: February 25, 2020: Biden +5.2" but today Trump is +4.6.
Things can certainly change between now and the election, but Biden's clearly struggling against Trump compared to 2020 where he barely squeaked out a win with much more favorable polling (including favorability/approval).
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On February 26 2024 06:51 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On February 26 2024 06:19 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On February 26 2024 05:53 GreenHorizons wrote:On February 26 2024 04:25 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On February 26 2024 03:26 GreenHorizons wrote:On February 17 2024 19:55 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On February 17 2024 19:44 GreenHorizons wrote:Turns out there's a way to express one's opposition to Biden's support of Israel's ethnic cleansing campaign through voting "uncommitted" in Michigan's primary https://twitter.com/Listen2michigan/status/1758514217538216405Something people may want to check if they have anything similar available in their state. Literally 0 pressure to vote for Biden in the primary so anyone can do it (if their state lets them). I think this is a reasonably good compromise, as it makes your voice heard during the primary without automatically helping Trump during the general election. Not so much apparently. Voting "uncommitted" in Michigan's primary is actually a vote supporting Trump according to Michigan's Democrat Governor. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer tells CNN's Dana Bash "I understand the pain that people are feeling" over the war in Gaza but warns that "any vote that's not cast for Joe Biden supports a second Trump term." edition.cnn.comI'm increasingly believing the implied odds that give Biden just a ~33% chance of winning. Bad time for Democrats to have picked an avowed Zionist as their leader. That gambling website clearly can't be taken seriously. Looks at who's in third place, supposedly with a 14.3% chance of becoming president (despite it actually being a 0% chance). Michelle Obama. There's really a 1-in-7 chance that she wins the presidential election? Really? lol. Placing a bet on the November results, especially in February, doesn't mean that those odds actually comport with reality. The earliest polls seem to indicate a very slight lead for Trump over Biden, ranging around 1-5%, but even the polls are going to be inaccurate this early in the election cycle. (Source: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/ ) Maybe things progress to 60-40 or 70-30 in favor of Trump over time, or maybe Biden ends up with a respectable lead. We can speculate in a variety of different directions, using different criteria as our justifications. For example, Biden's primary victories were around 90%, whereas Trump's primary victories were only at around 60%. Those numbers certainly don't favor Trump. There are also pockets of Never-Trump Republicans saying they would either stay home or actually vote for Biden, if (when) Trump becomes the official Republican nominee. Additionally, we need to see the impact that Trump's continuous losses in the courts have on his supporters, over the next half-year. It may be the case that Trump loses more voters than Biden does. We really don't know how things are going to shake out. The site itself isn't really relevant, those are the ~implied odds across all gambling websites. It's true that the "true odds" are likely different, but still apparently favor Trump. As for polling, Biden's problem isn't just that he's 1-5% behind Trump (and has been for months), it's that he's 6-10+% behind where he was polling in 2020 nationally when he squeaked out a win. Perhaps more pressing than that, is that Biden is also ~ 10% behind his 2020 Michigan polling vs Trump, and Democrats need to win Michigan to win the presidency. Comparing their primary victories thus far is silly, For example, Trump got more votes in SC than Biden has in all his primaries combined (Nikki Haley almost did too). Biden got less than half as many primary votes in SC in 2024 compared to 2020. Hell, Biden barely got more votes in SC's 2024 primary than Bernie did in their 2020 primary. en.wikipedia.orgBiden still has higher disapproval than Trump had at this point in his presidency (no one has ever won with it so high) and Trump currently has better favorability than BidenIt's true we can't know how it will shake out with certainty (likely not until some time after election day really), but it's abundantly clear Biden's in worse shape than he was in 2020 vs Trump when he barely won. Hence Whitmer (and rank and file types like Sadist) trying to shame/threaten people for even considering voting "Uncommitted" in Michigan's primary. You're not making accurate comparisons with those links either. You're comparing February 2024 (half a year before the election) to October/November 2020 (right before the election). Feb 2020 is just as irrelevant as Feb 2024, and just because there happened to be consistency from Feb 2020 to Nov 2020 doesn't mean 2024 will have the same consistency. As I said before, we need to see how the next few months play out, so that we can compare October/November 2024 to October/November 2020. If Biden in Oct/Nov 2024 is polling significantly worse than Oct/Nov 2020, then the comparison will be justified. We can't know yet if this election's final polling will put Biden ahead, equal to, or behind last election's final polling for Biden - and we also know that polling doesn't guarantee an outcome. Last election, Biden polled ahead of Trump by a few points right before the vote, and he won. This election, Biden could poll behind Trump and still win, or ahead of Trump and still lose. Last election was pretty close to a coinflip, and 55-45 or even 60-40 in either direction for this election is still practically a coinflip. Also, I think if you consider the populations of the states that have voted in the primaries so far, and just how deep red South Carolina is, you won't be surprised at the SC data you cited. South Carolina isn't even a swing state, but it may be interesting to see how the Republican primary plays out in swing states (if Haley stays around that long). But either way, a lot can happen in the spring, summer, and fall of 2024 to affect the November vote. Well, I'm comparing Biden vs.Trump in Feb 2024 with Biden vs Trump in Feb 2020. It says: " This Day In History: February 25, 2020: Biden +4.3" to make the point that he's inarguably in worse shape now than he was at this point in the race in 2020, particularly in Michigan where " This Day in History: February 25, 2020: Biden +5.2" but today Trump is +4.6. Things can certainly change between now and the election, but Biden's clearly struggling against Trump compared to 2020 where he barely squeaked out a win with much more favorable polling (including favorability/approval).
As I said before, comparing Feb 2020 to Feb 2024 is comparing an irrelevant data point from last election to an irrelevant data point from this election. You're right that Biden is doing worse right now than he did at the same point in time last election, but such a comparison doesn't legitimize either one as having predictive power. (Case in point: If you go back one more election cycle to Feb 2016, Hillary Clinton was +4.5.) We should be patient instead of rushing to conclusions based on premature information (or gambling odds).
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On February 26 2024 07:50 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On February 26 2024 06:51 GreenHorizons wrote:On February 26 2024 06:19 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On February 26 2024 05:53 GreenHorizons wrote:On February 26 2024 04:25 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On February 26 2024 03:26 GreenHorizons wrote:On February 17 2024 19:55 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On February 17 2024 19:44 GreenHorizons wrote:Turns out there's a way to express one's opposition to Biden's support of Israel's ethnic cleansing campaign through voting "uncommitted" in Michigan's primary https://twitter.com/Listen2michigan/status/1758514217538216405Something people may want to check if they have anything similar available in their state. Literally 0 pressure to vote for Biden in the primary so anyone can do it (if their state lets them). I think this is a reasonably good compromise, as it makes your voice heard during the primary without automatically helping Trump during the general election. Not so much apparently. Voting "uncommitted" in Michigan's primary is actually a vote supporting Trump according to Michigan's Democrat Governor. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer tells CNN's Dana Bash "I understand the pain that people are feeling" over the war in Gaza but warns that "any vote that's not cast for Joe Biden supports a second Trump term." edition.cnn.comI'm increasingly believing the implied odds that give Biden just a ~33% chance of winning. Bad time for Democrats to have picked an avowed Zionist as their leader. That gambling website clearly can't be taken seriously. Looks at who's in third place, supposedly with a 14.3% chance of becoming president (despite it actually being a 0% chance). Michelle Obama. There's really a 1-in-7 chance that she wins the presidential election? Really? lol. Placing a bet on the November results, especially in February, doesn't mean that those odds actually comport with reality. The earliest polls seem to indicate a very slight lead for Trump over Biden, ranging around 1-5%, but even the polls are going to be inaccurate this early in the election cycle. (Source: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/ ) Maybe things progress to 60-40 or 70-30 in favor of Trump over time, or maybe Biden ends up with a respectable lead. We can speculate in a variety of different directions, using different criteria as our justifications. For example, Biden's primary victories were around 90%, whereas Trump's primary victories were only at around 60%. Those numbers certainly don't favor Trump. There are also pockets of Never-Trump Republicans saying they would either stay home or actually vote for Biden, if (when) Trump becomes the official Republican nominee. Additionally, we need to see the impact that Trump's continuous losses in the courts have on his supporters, over the next half-year. It may be the case that Trump loses more voters than Biden does. We really don't know how things are going to shake out. The site itself isn't really relevant, those are the ~implied odds across all gambling websites. It's true that the "true odds" are likely different, but still apparently favor Trump. As for polling, Biden's problem isn't just that he's 1-5% behind Trump (and has been for months), it's that he's 6-10+% behind where he was polling in 2020 nationally when he squeaked out a win. Perhaps more pressing than that, is that Biden is also ~ 10% behind his 2020 Michigan polling vs Trump, and Democrats need to win Michigan to win the presidency. Comparing their primary victories thus far is silly, For example, Trump got more votes in SC than Biden has in all his primaries combined (Nikki Haley almost did too). Biden got less than half as many primary votes in SC in 2024 compared to 2020. Hell, Biden barely got more votes in SC's 2024 primary than Bernie did in their 2020 primary. en.wikipedia.orgBiden still has higher disapproval than Trump had at this point in his presidency (no one has ever won with it so high) and Trump currently has better favorability than BidenIt's true we can't know how it will shake out with certainty (likely not until some time after election day really), but it's abundantly clear Biden's in worse shape than he was in 2020 vs Trump when he barely won. Hence Whitmer (and rank and file types like Sadist) trying to shame/threaten people for even considering voting "Uncommitted" in Michigan's primary. You're not making accurate comparisons with those links either. You're comparing February 2024 (half a year before the election) to October/November 2020 (right before the election). Feb 2020 is just as irrelevant as Feb 2024, and just because there happened to be consistency from Feb 2020 to Nov 2020 doesn't mean 2024 will have the same consistency. As I said before, we need to see how the next few months play out, so that we can compare October/November 2024 to October/November 2020. If Biden in Oct/Nov 2024 is polling significantly worse than Oct/Nov 2020, then the comparison will be justified. We can't know yet if this election's final polling will put Biden ahead, equal to, or behind last election's final polling for Biden - and we also know that polling doesn't guarantee an outcome. Last election, Biden polled ahead of Trump by a few points right before the vote, and he won. This election, Biden could poll behind Trump and still win, or ahead of Trump and still lose. Last election was pretty close to a coinflip, and 55-45 or even 60-40 in either direction for this election is still practically a coinflip. Also, I think if you consider the populations of the states that have voted in the primaries so far, and just how deep red South Carolina is, you won't be surprised at the SC data you cited. South Carolina isn't even a swing state, but it may be interesting to see how the Republican primary plays out in swing states (if Haley stays around that long). But either way, a lot can happen in the spring, summer, and fall of 2024 to affect the November vote. Well, I'm comparing Biden vs.Trump in Feb 2024 with Biden vs Trump in Feb 2020. It says: " This Day In History: February 25, 2020: Biden +4.3" to make the point that he's inarguably in worse shape now than he was at this point in the race in 2020, particularly in Michigan where " This Day in History: February 25, 2020: Biden +5.2" but today Trump is +4.6. Things can certainly change between now and the election, but Biden's clearly struggling against Trump compared to 2020 where he barely squeaked out a win with much more favorable polling (including favorability/approval). As I said before, comparing Feb 2020 to Feb 2024 is comparing an irrelevant data point from last election to an irrelevant data point from this election. You're right that Biden is doing worse right now than he did at the same point in time last election, but such a comparison doesn't legitimize either one as having predictive power. We should be patient instead of rushing to conclusions based on premature information (or gambling odds).
Polling is not irrelevant . For example, decisions about how and where to spend campaign resources and political capital is in part based on contemporary and historic polling.
If Democrats treat the polls as irrelevant, they can't strategize a reasonable path to 270 and apply their efforts accordingly.
The notion that Biden is just as likely to win 2024 as he was at this point to win in 2020, or that him being so far behind his 2020 position at this point is irrelevant (nevermind no president ever being reelected with so high a disapproval rating), is dangerously oblivious imo.
While I appreciate your perspective on the odds and polling, what I was interested in was your take on the assertion from Gov. Whitmer (D-MI) that what we thought was a reasonable compromise for a primary voter opposed to genocide, she says is actually supporting Trump.
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On February 26 2024 08:29 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On February 26 2024 07:50 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On February 26 2024 06:51 GreenHorizons wrote:On February 26 2024 06:19 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On February 26 2024 05:53 GreenHorizons wrote:On February 26 2024 04:25 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On February 26 2024 03:26 GreenHorizons wrote:On February 17 2024 19:55 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On February 17 2024 19:44 GreenHorizons wrote:Turns out there's a way to express one's opposition to Biden's support of Israel's ethnic cleansing campaign through voting "uncommitted" in Michigan's primary https://twitter.com/Listen2michigan/status/1758514217538216405Something people may want to check if they have anything similar available in their state. Literally 0 pressure to vote for Biden in the primary so anyone can do it (if their state lets them). I think this is a reasonably good compromise, as it makes your voice heard during the primary without automatically helping Trump during the general election. Not so much apparently. Voting "uncommitted" in Michigan's primary is actually a vote supporting Trump according to Michigan's Democrat Governor. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer tells CNN's Dana Bash "I understand the pain that people are feeling" over the war in Gaza but warns that "any vote that's not cast for Joe Biden supports a second Trump term." edition.cnn.comI'm increasingly believing the implied odds that give Biden just a ~33% chance of winning. Bad time for Democrats to have picked an avowed Zionist as their leader. That gambling website clearly can't be taken seriously. Looks at who's in third place, supposedly with a 14.3% chance of becoming president (despite it actually being a 0% chance). Michelle Obama. There's really a 1-in-7 chance that she wins the presidential election? Really? lol. Placing a bet on the November results, especially in February, doesn't mean that those odds actually comport with reality. The earliest polls seem to indicate a very slight lead for Trump over Biden, ranging around 1-5%, but even the polls are going to be inaccurate this early in the election cycle. (Source: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/ ) Maybe things progress to 60-40 or 70-30 in favor of Trump over time, or maybe Biden ends up with a respectable lead. We can speculate in a variety of different directions, using different criteria as our justifications. For example, Biden's primary victories were around 90%, whereas Trump's primary victories were only at around 60%. Those numbers certainly don't favor Trump. There are also pockets of Never-Trump Republicans saying they would either stay home or actually vote for Biden, if (when) Trump becomes the official Republican nominee. Additionally, we need to see the impact that Trump's continuous losses in the courts have on his supporters, over the next half-year. It may be the case that Trump loses more voters than Biden does. We really don't know how things are going to shake out. The site itself isn't really relevant, those are the ~implied odds across all gambling websites. It's true that the "true odds" are likely different, but still apparently favor Trump. As for polling, Biden's problem isn't just that he's 1-5% behind Trump (and has been for months), it's that he's 6-10+% behind where he was polling in 2020 nationally when he squeaked out a win. Perhaps more pressing than that, is that Biden is also ~ 10% behind his 2020 Michigan polling vs Trump, and Democrats need to win Michigan to win the presidency. Comparing their primary victories thus far is silly, For example, Trump got more votes in SC than Biden has in all his primaries combined (Nikki Haley almost did too). Biden got less than half as many primary votes in SC in 2024 compared to 2020. Hell, Biden barely got more votes in SC's 2024 primary than Bernie did in their 2020 primary. en.wikipedia.orgBiden still has higher disapproval than Trump had at this point in his presidency (no one has ever won with it so high) and Trump currently has better favorability than BidenIt's true we can't know how it will shake out with certainty (likely not until some time after election day really), but it's abundantly clear Biden's in worse shape than he was in 2020 vs Trump when he barely won. Hence Whitmer (and rank and file types like Sadist) trying to shame/threaten people for even considering voting "Uncommitted" in Michigan's primary. You're not making accurate comparisons with those links either. You're comparing February 2024 (half a year before the election) to October/November 2020 (right before the election). Feb 2020 is just as irrelevant as Feb 2024, and just because there happened to be consistency from Feb 2020 to Nov 2020 doesn't mean 2024 will have the same consistency. As I said before, we need to see how the next few months play out, so that we can compare October/November 2024 to October/November 2020. If Biden in Oct/Nov 2024 is polling significantly worse than Oct/Nov 2020, then the comparison will be justified. We can't know yet if this election's final polling will put Biden ahead, equal to, or behind last election's final polling for Biden - and we also know that polling doesn't guarantee an outcome. Last election, Biden polled ahead of Trump by a few points right before the vote, and he won. This election, Biden could poll behind Trump and still win, or ahead of Trump and still lose. Last election was pretty close to a coinflip, and 55-45 or even 60-40 in either direction for this election is still practically a coinflip. Also, I think if you consider the populations of the states that have voted in the primaries so far, and just how deep red South Carolina is, you won't be surprised at the SC data you cited. South Carolina isn't even a swing state, but it may be interesting to see how the Republican primary plays out in swing states (if Haley stays around that long). But either way, a lot can happen in the spring, summer, and fall of 2024 to affect the November vote. Well, I'm comparing Biden vs.Trump in Feb 2024 with Biden vs Trump in Feb 2020. It says: " This Day In History: February 25, 2020: Biden +4.3" to make the point that he's inarguably in worse shape now than he was at this point in the race in 2020, particularly in Michigan where " This Day in History: February 25, 2020: Biden +5.2" but today Trump is +4.6. Things can certainly change between now and the election, but Biden's clearly struggling against Trump compared to 2020 where he barely squeaked out a win with much more favorable polling (including favorability/approval). As I said before, comparing Feb 2020 to Feb 2024 is comparing an irrelevant data point from last election to an irrelevant data point from this election. You're right that Biden is doing worse right now than he did at the same point in time last election, but such a comparison doesn't legitimize either one as having predictive power. We should be patient instead of rushing to conclusions based on premature information (or gambling odds). Polling is not irrelevant . For example, decisions about how and where to spend campaign resources and political capital is in part based on contemporary and historic polling. If Democrats treat the polls as irrelevant, they can't strategize a reasonable path to 270 and apply their efforts accordingly. The notion that Biden is just as likely to win 2024 as he was at this point to win in 2020, or that him being so far behind his 2020 position at this point is irrelevant (nevermind no president ever being reelected with so high a disapproval rating), is dangerously oblivious imo. While I appreciate your perspective on the odds and polling, what I was interested in was your take on the assertion from Gov. Whitmer (D-MI) that what we thought was a reasonable compromise for a primary voter opposed to genocide, she says is actually supporting Trump.
Do you mean this excerpt from the article you posted: "Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer tells CNN's Dana Bash "I understand the pain that people are feeling" over the war in Gaza but warns that "any vote that's not cast for Joe Biden supports a second Trump term."" https://edition.cnn.com/videos/politics/2024/02/25/sotu-whitmer-on-michigan-primary.cnn
Here are my thoughts about that quote:
1. I think it's important for her to not be dismissive of the concerns of voters, including how people feel about Gaza and the Israel-Palestine conflict. After watching the entire 2.5-minute video clip from that article, she seems to be a little more sensitive to the situation than that quote suggests.
2. I think her message is probably aimed for the general election, as the primary is essentially decided already (Biden vs. Trump, unless one of them dies or is forcibly removed).
3. I think it's important to note that Trump would be worse than Biden for Palestinians, and so hopefully voters are keeping in mind the big picture (Biden vs. Trump in regards to Palestine, and Biden vs. Trump in regards to everything else domestic and foreign) when they're deciding who they'll vote for in November.
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On February 26 2024 09:05 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On February 26 2024 08:29 GreenHorizons wrote:On February 26 2024 07:50 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On February 26 2024 06:51 GreenHorizons wrote:On February 26 2024 06:19 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On February 26 2024 05:53 GreenHorizons wrote:On February 26 2024 04:25 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On February 26 2024 03:26 GreenHorizons wrote:On February 17 2024 19:55 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On February 17 2024 19:44 GreenHorizons wrote:Turns out there's a way to express one's opposition to Biden's support of Israel's ethnic cleansing campaign through voting "uncommitted" in Michigan's primary https://twitter.com/Listen2michigan/status/1758514217538216405Something people may want to check if they have anything similar available in their state. Literally 0 pressure to vote for Biden in the primary so anyone can do it (if their state lets them). I think this is a reasonably good compromise, as it makes your voice heard during the primary without automatically helping Trump during the general election. Not so much apparently. Voting "uncommitted" in Michigan's primary is actually a vote supporting Trump according to Michigan's Democrat Governor. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer tells CNN's Dana Bash "I understand the pain that people are feeling" over the war in Gaza but warns that "any vote that's not cast for Joe Biden supports a second Trump term." edition.cnn.comI'm increasingly believing the implied odds that give Biden just a ~33% chance of winning. Bad time for Democrats to have picked an avowed Zionist as their leader. That gambling website clearly can't be taken seriously. Looks at who's in third place, supposedly with a 14.3% chance of becoming president (despite it actually being a 0% chance). Michelle Obama. There's really a 1-in-7 chance that she wins the presidential election? Really? lol. Placing a bet on the November results, especially in February, doesn't mean that those odds actually comport with reality. The earliest polls seem to indicate a very slight lead for Trump over Biden, ranging around 1-5%, but even the polls are going to be inaccurate this early in the election cycle. (Source: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/ ) Maybe things progress to 60-40 or 70-30 in favor of Trump over time, or maybe Biden ends up with a respectable lead. We can speculate in a variety of different directions, using different criteria as our justifications. For example, Biden's primary victories were around 90%, whereas Trump's primary victories were only at around 60%. Those numbers certainly don't favor Trump. There are also pockets of Never-Trump Republicans saying they would either stay home or actually vote for Biden, if (when) Trump becomes the official Republican nominee. Additionally, we need to see the impact that Trump's continuous losses in the courts have on his supporters, over the next half-year. It may be the case that Trump loses more voters than Biden does. We really don't know how things are going to shake out. The site itself isn't really relevant, those are the ~implied odds across all gambling websites. It's true that the "true odds" are likely different, but still apparently favor Trump. As for polling, Biden's problem isn't just that he's 1-5% behind Trump (and has been for months), it's that he's 6-10+% behind where he was polling in 2020 nationally when he squeaked out a win. Perhaps more pressing than that, is that Biden is also ~ 10% behind his 2020 Michigan polling vs Trump, and Democrats need to win Michigan to win the presidency. Comparing their primary victories thus far is silly, For example, Trump got more votes in SC than Biden has in all his primaries combined (Nikki Haley almost did too). Biden got less than half as many primary votes in SC in 2024 compared to 2020. Hell, Biden barely got more votes in SC's 2024 primary than Bernie did in their 2020 primary. en.wikipedia.orgBiden still has higher disapproval than Trump had at this point in his presidency (no one has ever won with it so high) and Trump currently has better favorability than BidenIt's true we can't know how it will shake out with certainty (likely not until some time after election day really), but it's abundantly clear Biden's in worse shape than he was in 2020 vs Trump when he barely won. Hence Whitmer (and rank and file types like Sadist) trying to shame/threaten people for even considering voting "Uncommitted" in Michigan's primary. You're not making accurate comparisons with those links either. You're comparing February 2024 (half a year before the election) to October/November 2020 (right before the election). Feb 2020 is just as irrelevant as Feb 2024, and just because there happened to be consistency from Feb 2020 to Nov 2020 doesn't mean 2024 will have the same consistency. As I said before, we need to see how the next few months play out, so that we can compare October/November 2024 to October/November 2020. If Biden in Oct/Nov 2024 is polling significantly worse than Oct/Nov 2020, then the comparison will be justified. We can't know yet if this election's final polling will put Biden ahead, equal to, or behind last election's final polling for Biden - and we also know that polling doesn't guarantee an outcome. Last election, Biden polled ahead of Trump by a few points right before the vote, and he won. This election, Biden could poll behind Trump and still win, or ahead of Trump and still lose. Last election was pretty close to a coinflip, and 55-45 or even 60-40 in either direction for this election is still practically a coinflip. Also, I think if you consider the populations of the states that have voted in the primaries so far, and just how deep red South Carolina is, you won't be surprised at the SC data you cited. South Carolina isn't even a swing state, but it may be interesting to see how the Republican primary plays out in swing states (if Haley stays around that long). But either way, a lot can happen in the spring, summer, and fall of 2024 to affect the November vote. Well, I'm comparing Biden vs.Trump in Feb 2024 with Biden vs Trump in Feb 2020. It says: " This Day In History: February 25, 2020: Biden +4.3" to make the point that he's inarguably in worse shape now than he was at this point in the race in 2020, particularly in Michigan where " This Day in History: February 25, 2020: Biden +5.2" but today Trump is +4.6. Things can certainly change between now and the election, but Biden's clearly struggling against Trump compared to 2020 where he barely squeaked out a win with much more favorable polling (including favorability/approval). As I said before, comparing Feb 2020 to Feb 2024 is comparing an irrelevant data point from last election to an irrelevant data point from this election. You're right that Biden is doing worse right now than he did at the same point in time last election, but such a comparison doesn't legitimize either one as having predictive power. We should be patient instead of rushing to conclusions based on premature information (or gambling odds). Polling is not irrelevant . For example, decisions about how and where to spend campaign resources and political capital is in part based on contemporary and historic polling. If Democrats treat the polls as irrelevant, they can't strategize a reasonable path to 270 and apply their efforts accordingly. The notion that Biden is just as likely to win 2024 as he was at this point to win in 2020, or that him being so far behind his 2020 position at this point is irrelevant (nevermind no president ever being reelected with so high a disapproval rating), is dangerously oblivious imo. While I appreciate your perspective on the odds and polling, what I was interested in was your take on the assertion from Gov. Whitmer (D-MI) that what we thought was a reasonable compromise for a primary voter opposed to genocide, she says is actually supporting Trump. Do you mean this excerpt from the article you posted: "Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer tells CNN's Dana Bash "I understand the pain that people are feeling" over the war in Gaza but warns that "any vote that's not cast for Joe Biden supports a second Trump term."" https://edition.cnn.com/videos/politics/2024/02/25/sotu-whitmer-on-michigan-primary.cnn Here are my thoughts about that quote: 1. I think it's important for her to not be dismissive of the concerns of voters, including how people feel about Gaza and the Israel-Palestine conflict. After watching the entire 2.5-minute video clip from that article, she seems to be a little more sensitive to the situation than that quote suggests. 2. I think her message is probably aimed for the general election, as the primary is essentially decided already (Biden vs. Trump, unless one of them dies or is forcibly removed). 3. I think it's important to note that Trump would be worse than Biden for Palestinians, and so hopefully voters are keeping in mind the big picture (Biden vs. Trump in regards to Palestine, and Biden vs. Trump in regards to everything else domestic and foreign) when they're deciding who they'll vote for in November.
1. Not really.
2. She literally said "any vote that isn't for Joe Biden" in response to and the context of a question about people voting uncommitted in the primary. A sentiment/threat that was immediately recognized and echoed/amplified by Sadist.
3. ~Half of Joe Biden's voters believe Israel is committing genocide. Their problem isn't that they don't know Trump is even more genocidal.
One of my overarching points: There are a variety of ways for Biden/Democrats and their supporters to win in November. But doing anything they can to avoid demanding Biden be better and instead focusing on demanding his voters support what they themselves identify as genocide is deplorable. EDIT: More than deplorable, I genuinely believe it can be systemically catastrophic, not just domestically but globally too.
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EPT
