On March 17 2019 04:05 Tubesock wrote: I think Acrofales is the only real blue left. Maybe either FF or Rels too it not both.
Pandain is blue claimed. He shot HF remember...
I know you haven’t been reading. But I cased him, so if you read you’d know I think he’s mafia day vig. I was voting him until about two minutes ago.
I believe your claim mostly when you said you wanted to do something truly baller and survive without claiming. So, I don’t have any problems with keeping you alive.
wow what a lovely list of town people on my wagon.
So this wasn't sarcasm? bc that's how I read it.
obviously sarcasm but you did say that i had no scumreads outside of my wagon and wriggles.
Are you reading your own filter?
You have done nothing productive to push an exo or slam lynch. Your one contribution has been to scum read wiggles which is a very johnny come lately push. Where were you when I wanted to lynch wiggles like half a week ago? Wiggles since then has been active and clearly giving good reads, the justification of killing him based on dead townies was no longer sufficient days ago.
On March 17 2019 04:05 Tubesock wrote: I think Acrofales is the only real blue left. Maybe either FF or Rels too it not both.
Pandain is blue claimed. He shot HF remember...
I know you haven’t been reading. But I cased him, so if you read you’d know I think he’s mafia day vig. I was voting him until about two minutes ago.
I believe your claim mostly when you said you wanted to do something truly baller and survive without claiming. So, I don’t have any problems with keeping you alive.
Why are you more persuaded by the wiggles case than the oats case Tube?
wow what a lovely list of town people on my wagon.
So this wasn't sarcasm? bc that's how I read it.
obviously sarcasm but you did say that i had no scumreads outside of my wagon and wriggles.
Are you reading your own filter?
You have done nothing productive to push an exo or slam lynch. Your one contribution has been to scum read wiggles which is a very johnny come lately push. Where were you when I wanted to lynch wiggles like half a week ago? Wiggles since then has been active and clearly giving good reads, the justification of killing him based on dead townies was no longer sufficient days ago.
In a game of 35 players, you can "expect" each player to contribute roughly 2.9% of the thread. Some will obviously contribute less due to being dead at the beginning, but lets use that as a rough metric.
I was going to do this for all players, but don't have time. I think Oats actually had a good point to do quantitative meta analysis.
Oats is at roughly 190% of the average poster. That's quite a lot. However Oats is generally a very prolific poster, so simply saying "quantity = town" is not right. We need to compare it to other games:
Here are all the games he played since 2014 (an arbitrary cut-off chosen so I don't have to analyse any of his 500 games played in 2013, but also to filter out "old meta"):
Survivor Series Mafia Town Vanilla Endgamed Day 4 - 10 pages: 5.7%, or 80% of average SMB Mini Mafia Town Vanilla Lynched Day 4 - 13 pages: 10%, or 131% of average TL Mafia LXIV: The Restart Town Vanilla Survived Day 7- 14 pages: 11%, or 200% of average Im a cop you idiot mafia 2 Town Medic Killed Night 2 - 9 pages: 20%, or 142% of average Shadowed Mini Mafia: The Reboot Town Vanilla Survived Day 4 - 8 pages: 8%, or 90% of average
Got bored of this. Only doing 2017 onwards:
A Simple Game of Mafia Mafia Roleblocker Lynched Day 1- 2 pages: 2%, or 28% of average Names Are Hard 2 Town Vanilla Endgamed Day 4 - 17 pages: 13%, or 156% of average Hurricane Shelter Mafia Town Medic Killed Night 1 - 3 pages: 4% or 52% of average Heroes of the Storm Mafia Town Vanilla Lynched Day 2 - 13 pages: 17%, or 223% of average Newbie Student Mafia XXVII Mafia Roleblocker Survived Day 5 - 12 pages: 16%, or 228% of average Mafia Mafia Mafia Mafia Town Vanilla Killed Day 2 - 8 pages: 12%, or 190% of average MafiacalFeast I Mafia Godfather Lynched Day 4 - 14 pages: 8%, or 110% of average
Make of this what you will, but mostly Oats is just a prolific writer. He has 2 recent mafia games at 110% of average and 228% of average. His least posts come from when he died super early (day 1, night 1) as mafia or town.
But it is maybe a good way to look at other people. Just a lot of work.
wow what a lovely list of town people on my wagon.
So this wasn't sarcasm? bc that's how I read it.
obviously sarcasm but you did say that i had no scumreads outside of my wagon and wriggles.
Are you reading your own filter?
You have done nothing productive to push an exo or slam lynch. Your one contribution has been to scum read wiggles which is a very johnny come lately push. Where were you when I wanted to lynch wiggles like half a week ago? Wiggles since then has been active and clearly giving good reads, the justification of killing him based on dead townies was no longer sufficient days ago.
What good reads?
On March 14 2019 15:50 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Concerned parent Grackaroni calls in with the following:
On March 14 2019 12:15 Grackaroni wrote: Hello Mr. Wiggles.
Long time listener, first time caller.
My issue with your program is that it focuses heavily on night actions and tube socks, which makes for somewhat dull listening in my evening hours. Frequently questions are explored in great detail that are of little value. I fear that your sock fetish frequently distracts from more engaging topics.
Could you give me some of your thoughts on the following players:
Oatsmaster Rels Jockmcplop Mocsta
Firstly, let us assure you that the Dead Zone Show is one of the most wholesome radio programs available to the citizens of Liquidia, and we try to stay focused on the hot issues of the day affecting our society. We do our best to deliver quality entertainment, so if we are failing in this regard, we apologise.
Now, as for your question, we have the following opinions after filter-diving (or at least skimming) the above:
Mocsta:
Overall reads as town to me, based on behavioural reasons. Lots of Mocsta's reads have been pretty out there or novel. There's also been lots of progression in the reads that doesn't look like scum. Mocsta will go out and accuse someone, throw some crap around, and then end up changing the read organically as the thread moves forward or more information is revealed. I don't see scum putting themselves out there that much or making themselves stick out like that. I don't like the recent preoccupation with 3P/SK and kill analysis, but that's more because I think it's a waste of effort than scum-motivated.
Jockmcplop:
Null to scum lean. We liked his play in the early stages of the game, but to us lately it's been becoming more scummy. The last while has seemed really tentative and timid compared to the earlier play that was a bit fearless. The posts from the last day have read more like they're probing to get a sense of town sentiment before committing to a read. This seems like scum that's getting nervous and doesn't know how to play or blend coming in to the mid game where there's less room to hide. I'll temper the read based on the fact that this is allegedly Jock's first game, so maybe the nerves are for a different reason, but it's coming off more as scum than inexperience now.
Rels:
Rels is a weird one because of the mason stuff. Rsoultin was masoned and outed Rels for thinking they're scum, and then LS was masoned and seems to have a town read on Rels (I think?). There's some weirdness going on here, where the Rels/Rsoultin stuff doesn't seem to match up with the apparent effort that's going on now with LS (based on stuff LS is saying in thread). This gives me some strange vibes.
Looking through the filter, it's not great. Lots of soft posting without many hard stances, besides pushing Ace and then Chez in the last couple cycles. Besides that, there's a lack content, even with lots of posts. There's maybe some stuff going on in the QT now with LS, but I don't like that reads are coming out through LS about stuff like Onegu, MZ, and TS and not from Rels himself via his posting in the thread. He doesn't seem to be publicly pushing the same stuff that he's feeding to LS.
Decent chance to flip scum.
Oatsmaster:
Null to scum read, similar strength to Jock. Looking through the filter was pretty hard. There's lots of random commentary and questions that don't seem to accomplish much or go anywhere. Lots of their scum reads come on hard seem to drop pretty soon thereafter. Reads a lot like Oats is throwing crap at the wall and looking for what might stick. Maybe that's a good way to look for reactions pretty early in the game, but coming in to this stage, it doesn't really add too much. I'm not familiar with meta any more, so maybe this is Oats' normal play?
Overall, I'd contrast Oats' play to Mocsta's where the latter's shows a more clear progression in the reads compared to Oats, even if they similarly try to push their own reads regardless of town sentiment. Mocsta's reads a lot more like town trying to scumhunt compared to Oats.
On March 14 2019 16:04 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Your hosts here at the Dead Zone Show would like to make their reads more clear. Most of this should have reasoning in our filter, besides a couple town reads we haven't mentioned and the null/uncertains. This is where people currently stand from strongest to weakest read in each category on the LiquidiaHotSingles list:
Town:
Mr. Wiggles (I know my role!) Pandain (HF shot + Sent push + posting) Acrofales (Had this read for a while, posting) LightningStrike (#1 Dead Zone Show fan) Grackaroni (Posting) Vivax (Posting) Mocsta Meapak_Ziphh Alakaslam (To make slam feel happy and included )
Null or not paid a ton of attention to:
Fecalfeast (Claim is not confirmed, but not worth looking at as a lynch yet) sicklucker ExO_
wow what a lovely list of town people on my wagon.
So this wasn't sarcasm? bc that's how I read it.
obviously sarcasm but you did say that i had no scumreads outside of my wagon and wriggles.
Are you reading your own filter?
You have done nothing productive to push an exo or slam lynch. Your one contribution has been to scum read wiggles which is a very johnny come lately push. Where were you when I wanted to lynch wiggles like half a week ago? Wiggles since then has been active and clearly giving good reads, the justification of killing him based on dead townies was no longer sufficient days ago.
obviously I havent, I cant push all of my scumreads into lynches.
I was lynching Holyflare because you wanted to somehow convert 1 vote into 12 votes?
On March 17 2019 04:05 Tubesock wrote: I think Acrofales is the only real blue left. Maybe either FF or Rels too it not both.
Pandain is blue claimed. He shot HF remember...
I know you haven’t been reading. But I cased him, so if you read you’d know I think he’s mafia day vig. I was voting him until about two minutes ago.
I believe your claim mostly when you said you wanted to do something truly baller and survive without claiming. So, I don’t have any problems with keeping you alive.
Why are you more persuaded by the wiggles case than the oats case Tube?
I don’t think Wiggles has played towny. I started disliking him once he started doing the radio show, but he was getting the benefit of the doubt because we voted similarly. But recently I feel like he’s following sentiment.
I thought Oatsmaster was scum for sure for awhile. My doubts started when he didn’t kill me the day we lynched Chezinu. He had every opportunity and plenty of justifications, but he stayed on you. Then kept me in his scum lists. It weirded me out a bit, and this day cycle I think I like most his posts. Except the ones where he tells Acro to just believe him or pull his head out. But town people seem to like saying that shit too.
wow what a lovely list of town people on my wagon.
So this wasn't sarcasm? bc that's how I read it.
obviously sarcasm but you did say that i had no scumreads outside of my wagon and wriggles.
Are you reading your own filter?
You have done nothing productive to push an exo or slam lynch. Your one contribution has been to scum read wiggles which is a very johnny come lately push. Where were you when I wanted to lynch wiggles like half a week ago? Wiggles since then has been active and clearly giving good reads, the justification of killing him based on dead townies was no longer sufficient days ago.
obviously I havent, I cant push all of my scumreads into lynches.
I was lynching Holyflare because you wanted to somehow convert 1 vote into 12 votes?
I wasn't asking you to lol, i voted for my top scum reads for the first few days as well. However now in a potential lylo with you under the gun you've not really done anything to show why your reads should be getting lynched instead of yourself.
On March 17 2019 01:17 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Desperate likely-mafioso Oatsmaster write in with the following nasty bit of slander:
On March 16 2019 17:16 Oatsmaster wrote: Wriggles is mafia
Lets start with this post
On March 15 2019 11:56 Mr. Wiggles wrote: In recent news, suspected mafia accomplice Onegu has claimed the role of 3rd Party Survivor. Your host is pleased that their read of 'not-town' turned out correct. However, there still remains the matter of determining the absolute truth in this case.
We are not sure that it made sense for Onegu to claim 3rd party at night. There's no threat of lynch at that point, and it is doubtful scum would shoot them given the general suspicion surrounding their business in the town. So, what's the point of the claim at that time? Is it because the claim had been previously planned by scum and they were nervous in wanting to post after the lynch? Time will tell. This is yet another point added to a growing pile of inconsistencies surrounding Onegu's claimed allegiance.
Now, if our listeners would indulge us as we take a trip down a line of inquiry smelling of fine wine, we can theorise as to the possible scum motivations of Onegu's claim.
From the reads stated in calls to the show, Onegu was widely regarded as being a good lynch candidate and a likely member of Liquidia's most notorious crime family. Without a doubt, the pressure would have been on today. So, claiming 3rd party at this point allows Onegu to take himself out of the pool of suspects and buy more time. Given that town is likely on the brink of failure and needs to lynch correctly several times in a row (see professor Acrofales' excellent analysis) this provides benefit to scum since town will now be looking into their weaker reads, where the chance of mislynch is higher. Given that town's reads are likely to become more accurate over time, this gives a higher chance of success for scum than if we had simply proceeded with the Onegu lynch directly.
With this being said, we are still evaluating how to handle Onegu. He is surely not a member of our town, but is he a threat? After the events of last night, we may have a sure lock on another scum candidate, so this question can probably be put on the back burner for now.
We think it may be in our best interest to lynch him if we find ourselves in muddy waters in the next few cycles, but we can likely leave him be for today.
he doesnt really entertain the idea that Onegu is mafia fakeclaiming 3p seriously, instead wanting to take the claim at face value but like he isnt suspicious at all. Instead, its a really long part of fluff that basically says "meh hes probably survivor for no reason and I dont want to lynch him today" scummy
Your host does seriously entertain that Onegu can be scum, which is why the bulk of the above transcript is devoted to the idea that the claim doesn't make much sense for a real 3P and that there is definite scum motivation to make that claim. We think he's more likely scum than survivor, but on the chance he is survivor, we'd rather not give scum essentially a free round of night kills.
Given Professor Acrofales' analysis, we need to lynch into scum multiple times with no mislynches. We'd rather not take the chance on Onegu when we believe there are other scum to lynch who we feel just as strongly on. That's the whole point about if our reads aren't great coming in to the second or third scum lynch we can kill him then, since the expected value works out.
On March 15 2019 12:02 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Suspected criminal mastermind Oatsmaster calls in with the following question:
On March 15 2019 11:43 Oatsmaster wrote:
On March 15 2019 11:41 darthfoley wrote:
On March 15 2019 11:31 LightningStrike wrote: Moscta it does matter only because if it's a red check we just lynch them today and if they not well you get the picture but I assuming a red check because you going to just park your vote there. ##Vote: Darthfoley
Lol he didn't vote me because he redchecked me. He didn't even check me. He's voted me because I haven't given a shit about this game and been wrong one more time than he has (I wasn't on the Sent wagon). Lynching me in LYLO for silly reasons would however, cap off this shit show of a town
Why is it lylo?
We would direct their attention to the two recent journal articles published by esteemed citizen Professor Acrofales in the Liquidia Journal of Criminology:
On March 14 2019 17:54 Acrofales wrote: Tomorrow there's going to be 15 ppl alive if the KP stays the same. Pretty sure if you don't lynch scum, it's over:
Formula 1: #scum/2 rounded up (traitor doesn't count) 10 town vs 5 scum Lynch scum, kill 2 town: 8v4 Lynch scum, kill 2 town: 6v3 Lynch scum, kill 1 town: 5v2 Breathing space: town bought themselves a final mislynch.
If you lynch town: Lynch town, kill 3 town: 6v5 Lynch scum, kill 2 town: 4v4 and it's over.
So HAVE TO kill 3 scum in a row.
Formula 2: flat 3 KP, unknown number of mafia: 15-X vs X Lynch scum, kill 3 town: 12 - X vs X - 1. Lynch scum, kill 3 town: 9 - X vs X - 2. Lynch scum, kill 3 town: 6 - X vs X - 3. Lunch scum, kill 3 town??? 3- X vs X - 4.
This obviously cannot continue and the last scum must be dead here, so X <= 4 in this scenario. X < 4 would make the scumread too small for the game, IMHO. So balance says that scum should be exactly 4 here, and to win, town needs to kill all scum in a row, starting now.
So what I'll do tonight is give you a list of the 4 scummiest shits and you lynch them in order. If KP stays 3, then you are in the bottom scenario and every day is lylo. If you're in the top scenario, you can take a brief breath after killing the three scummers.
Obviously I'm expecting to be dead tomorrow, but maybe there's a backup medic. Who knows.
On March 15 2019 03:41 Acrofales wrote: Time for setup speculation part 2, now with 3p!
I looked over onegu's filter and most of my reasons for scumreading him is his utter disinterest in finding scum. That is totally explainable as 3p. However, it's also totally explainable as scum. So here goes:
If onegu is scum, see my previous post, and you just gotta kill him.
If onegu is a survivor: Formula 1, nothing changes, except that instead of it being 5v2 after lynching 3 scum, its 4v2v1. Imho, always lynch onegu at this point, unless you caught a 4th scummer redhanded doing scummy-as-fuck stuff. Otherwise, you can't distinguish between 5v2 and 4v2v1, and lynching town in the 4v2v1 situation means town loses. Lynching the claimed 3p is a "safe play". He is definitely not town, as town doesn't claim 3p unless they want to lose the game, and he might just be scum trying to escape. Note that it isn't safe to lynch onegu the 3p *before* you get down to the single NK in this formula.
Formula 2: Without a medic, we have already lost: 14-X vs X vs 1 11-X vs X - 1 vs 1 8-X vs X - 2 vs 1 5 - X vs X - 3 vs 1 If X = 4 this is endgame. So either FF blows up a scummer with a bomb (meaning scum are a bunch of fricking idiots) or we still have a medic floating about.
In either case, if we get the medic save, it is never safe to lynch onegu the 3p. It is always necessary to lynch onegu the scum. At some point town is gonna have to decide what onegu is.
Onegu the SK.
This scenario just seems really really unlikely. Non-compulsive SKs are such a broken role that I don't think we got one. Which means that *either* the SK stacked KP 3 times, for which we only have circumstantial evidence on N1, or the scumteam has only 2 KP.
Neither of these scenarios seems likely at all. So I'd rule out this scenario. Moreover, I actually checked the OP, and it says:
The town's win condition:
The town wins when all mafia are eliminated.
This seems pretty clearcut. There is no malevolent 3p in the game, or this wincon wouldn't work. So onegu is not an SK.
Your hosts at the Dead Zone Show tend to agree with this analysis, and at least the general sentiment that we must try our hardest to lynch into scum. There should be no more talk of throw-away lynches to thin lurkers or bad players at this point.
waste of time post
If that post that took a minute to write was a waste of time, what does that make your question? Please read the thread in the future, and you won't need to waste so much of other people's time. =/
On March 15 2019 12:20 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Ever-faithful listener and #1 Dead Zone Show fan LightningStrike calls in with the following question:
On March 15 2019 11:40 LightningStrike wrote: Dear Faithful host: What you make of Moscta's claim and actions from today? Sincerely, LS
We're still trying to wrap our heads around the claim. We agree on the general scumminess of darthfoley and will be voting there as we figure out the rest of the day. We'll be interested in seeing any letter addressed from Professor Acrofales regarding the target of today's lynch. During the night cycle he argued strongly that we need to lynch Oatsmaster, and we'd like to see some more reasoning for that target compared to df.
Now for the claim itself, we're not sure whether we believe it. There was some weirdness, a so-called 'ploy', around last night's check. Similarly, the timing of the claim was odd. Why post a claim with almost the full night ahead so that scum can decide whether to shoot you? mocsta was around for just before the flips, so that would have been the more logical time for the claim to come out.
The scum motivation for this would be if we're in a do or die situation like the Professor pointed out, and df is town. This would cement a scum victory if we followed the claimed check blindly.
On the other hand, we have been reading mocsta as town, and historically they have acted quite compulsively. From that perspective, your hosts are pondering whether a town mocsta would try to fake claim to ensure they got the lynch they wanted. We haven't followed their past career closely enough to know if this is something they would do, but it does seem possible.
The alternative is that we're over-thinking this and mocsta really does moonlight as a private eye, but overall the claim needs to be clarified since something smells off to us here at the show.
okay so this post, right before this wriggles seems to "know" that df is mafia with a lot of confidence
On March 15 2019 12:03 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Though, on reflection, is that a slip from our red friend DarthFoley?
right so like its a joke but that comes from no question at all that he thinks DF is mafia because of the red check from mocsta In the post analyzing mocsta, he states that the claim is off but he doesnt commit to a read on mocsta because of that and that seems to me like a lot of hedging kinda seeing where the town read him and then commit to that read. Like he basically says "shrug, i dunno its weird, dont look at me i dont know". Again, another post that looks good but says absolutely nothing.
Im just gonna stop here for now, but throughout his filter, theres a lack of like interest to actually get the people he thinks is scum lynched. He kinda waffles a bit, plays a bit of mentor advice role but legitimately just hides in the shadows. His show is just a way to fluff up his posts, and if you notice, for the most part he doesnt actually progress anything in his show. Its basically him answering some questions and peacing out. So he is putting his opinion in the thread but not actually using it for any reason whatsoever to look townie.
Theres a reason Palmar wanted him to die.
this is the lynch for today
##vote wriggles
We have a town read on mocsta, which if you don't know that seems to go back to not actually following the show very closely. This read was made before the cop claim came out. That post details that despite the claim, we still thought mocsta was a member of our fair town. There could be mafia motivation to the claim, but based on our earlier read and the inconsistencies in the claim, we thought it was some sort of ploy to get people behind a DF lynch.
As for the last point, outside of weekends we have only a few hours to actively post in the evening. This also happens to be when a lot of people are away or asleep, thus the title of the show. We're playing the game by trying to advance reads, comment on current events, and basically be an open book to any question we're asked in our fan mail. If we don't look like we're pushing lynches that's because we're not, in the sense that we can't be around to spam "lynch X" for the four hours before the lynch. If people don't read the thread or want to remember what was written further back than a few hours ago, we can't really do anything about that.
The claim needs to be verified because something smells fishy, means that you thought its some sort of ploy from town? Your words and your explanation afterwards don’t make sense.
I really don’t care why you decided that this format is how you want to interact with the game, I care that you come in, answer some questions and then not use any time at all to promote your lynch targets. There’s no proactivity in your play, it’s all reactive. Like it’s actually literally all reactive. Which is extremely scummy because you want to blend in and make sure that you react appropriately and not take risks in being proactive
Oats doesn't like reading, or more likely is scum lying through their teeth, so here's the quote from the original post:
"On the other hand, we have been reading mocsta as town, and historically they have acted quite compulsively. From that perspective, your hosts are pondering whether a town mocsta would try to fake claim to ensure they got the lynch they wanted. We haven't followed their past career closely enough to know if this is something they would do, but it does seem possible."
This came out before mocsta admitted to the fake claim.
We've been pro-active in some ways for this game. We've been the only one who was really pushing your scum buddy Tubesock until the last lynch cycle. We were also one of the few people taking heat off of people we had town reads on by dismantling the shoddy and clumsy cases being made against them. Too bad this didn't work for Chezinu, but let's look at the wagon, shall we? Take your pick of Pandain or Onegu for scum:
On March 14 2019 08:00 Dandel Ion wrote: Day Four final VoteCount
wow what a lovely list of town people on my wagon.
So this wasn't sarcasm? bc that's how I read it.
obviously sarcasm but you did say that i had no scumreads outside of my wagon and wriggles.
Are you reading your own filter?
You have done nothing productive to push an exo or slam lynch. Your one contribution has been to scum read wiggles which is a very johnny come lately push. Where were you when I wanted to lynch wiggles like half a week ago? Wiggles since then has been active and clearly giving good reads, the justification of killing him based on dead townies was no longer sufficient days ago.
obviously I havent, I cant push all of my scumreads into lynches.
I was lynching Holyflare because you wanted to somehow convert 1 vote into 12 votes?
I wasn't asking you to lol, i voted for my top scum reads for the first few days as well. However now in a potential lylo with you under the gun you've not really done anything to show why your reads should be getting lynched instead of yourself.
I also can only lynch one person today? I think ive explained pretty well why I think wriggles is mafia but you dont want to engage with me?
Acro's post is nice, but im talking about this game only.
TL;DR I sheep my vote to Acro - He deserves this much for the only guy left giving a real shit about the game If this is it - Its been a bittersweet pleasure & I think Pandain + Rels are scum
Im feeling much better about DF - I prob more wanted him to be scum, then I thought he was scum.
I actually watched the whole thing and I think you're town now I thought your claim was shitty but I understand the attempt now, and I think the reaction you got out of DF was pretty good
Lots of things in the video ofc I don't agree with the scumread on me. You say I'm backseating and just popping off from time to time, and that's why I'm scum; but this doesn't apply to me. As scum, I take the town leadership and get the lynches I want. As town I do my own thing when I have time to play. p:
There are two things I really liked in the video: - the BH post about lurkers. I also have the mindset that most of the scumteam are lurkers, and have been watching town self-desotry themselves from the beginning. That's why actually the best lynch everyday would have been someone like ExO; not the most exciting one, but a good chance to hit scum - Oats' response to rsoul's scumread of BC and DF, commenting that her DF's scumread is "the worst scumread he's ever seen". That's might be a good parnter indicator right there. I didn't find Acro's point on Oats / BC beta / alpha very scummy, but this is way better
Now one question: why do you think my reasonning on Onegu(s claim is wrong?
On March 17 2019 00:17 Rels wrote: Acro and TS findings on Oats' read on TS is a great find. The only thing I didn't understand was how the fuck TS posts at the beginning were supposed to be traps, but since Oats showed he believes them, it doesn't matter
I mean, believing in them means that he thought through it beforehand yes?
again, how does that make me mafia?
'cause you still scumread him after that ... that's the whole point lol
On March 17 2019 01:17 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Desperate likely-mafioso Oatsmaster write in with the following nasty bit of slander:
On March 16 2019 17:16 Oatsmaster wrote: Wriggles is mafia
Lets start with this post
On March 15 2019 11:56 Mr. Wiggles wrote: In recent news, suspected mafia accomplice Onegu has claimed the role of 3rd Party Survivor. Your host is pleased that their read of 'not-town' turned out correct. However, there still remains the matter of determining the absolute truth in this case.
We are not sure that it made sense for Onegu to claim 3rd party at night. There's no threat of lynch at that point, and it is doubtful scum would shoot them given the general suspicion surrounding their business in the town. So, what's the point of the claim at that time? Is it because the claim had been previously planned by scum and they were nervous in wanting to post after the lynch? Time will tell. This is yet another point added to a growing pile of inconsistencies surrounding Onegu's claimed allegiance.
Now, if our listeners would indulge us as we take a trip down a line of inquiry smelling of fine wine, we can theorise as to the possible scum motivations of Onegu's claim.
From the reads stated in calls to the show, Onegu was widely regarded as being a good lynch candidate and a likely member of Liquidia's most notorious crime family. Without a doubt, the pressure would have been on today. So, claiming 3rd party at this point allows Onegu to take himself out of the pool of suspects and buy more time. Given that town is likely on the brink of failure and needs to lynch correctly several times in a row (see professor Acrofales' excellent analysis) this provides benefit to scum since town will now be looking into their weaker reads, where the chance of mislynch is higher. Given that town's reads are likely to become more accurate over time, this gives a higher chance of success for scum than if we had simply proceeded with the Onegu lynch directly.
With this being said, we are still evaluating how to handle Onegu. He is surely not a member of our town, but is he a threat? After the events of last night, we may have a sure lock on another scum candidate, so this question can probably be put on the back burner for now.
We think it may be in our best interest to lynch him if we find ourselves in muddy waters in the next few cycles, but we can likely leave him be for today.
he doesnt really entertain the idea that Onegu is mafia fakeclaiming 3p seriously, instead wanting to take the claim at face value but like he isnt suspicious at all. Instead, its a really long part of fluff that basically says "meh hes probably survivor for no reason and I dont want to lynch him today" scummy
Your host does seriously entertain that Onegu can be scum, which is why the bulk of the above transcript is devoted to the idea that the claim doesn't make much sense for a real 3P and that there is definite scum motivation to make that claim. We think he's more likely scum than survivor, but on the chance he is survivor, we'd rather not give scum essentially a free round of night kills.
Given Professor Acrofales' analysis, we need to lynch into scum multiple times with no mislynches. We'd rather not take the chance on Onegu when we believe there are other scum to lynch who we feel just as strongly on. That's the whole point about if our reads aren't great coming in to the second or third scum lynch we can kill him then, since the expected value works out.
On March 15 2019 12:02 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Suspected criminal mastermind Oatsmaster calls in with the following question:
On March 15 2019 11:43 Oatsmaster wrote:
On March 15 2019 11:41 darthfoley wrote:
On March 15 2019 11:31 LightningStrike wrote: Moscta it does matter only because if it's a red check we just lynch them today and if they not well you get the picture but I assuming a red check because you going to just park your vote there. ##Vote: Darthfoley
Lol he didn't vote me because he redchecked me. He didn't even check me. He's voted me because I haven't given a shit about this game and been wrong one more time than he has (I wasn't on the Sent wagon). Lynching me in LYLO for silly reasons would however, cap off this shit show of a town
Why is it lylo?
We would direct their attention to the two recent journal articles published by esteemed citizen Professor Acrofales in the Liquidia Journal of Criminology:
On March 14 2019 17:54 Acrofales wrote: Tomorrow there's going to be 15 ppl alive if the KP stays the same. Pretty sure if you don't lynch scum, it's over:
Formula 1: #scum/2 rounded up (traitor doesn't count) 10 town vs 5 scum Lynch scum, kill 2 town: 8v4 Lynch scum, kill 2 town: 6v3 Lynch scum, kill 1 town: 5v2 Breathing space: town bought themselves a final mislynch.
If you lynch town: Lynch town, kill 3 town: 6v5 Lynch scum, kill 2 town: 4v4 and it's over.
So HAVE TO kill 3 scum in a row.
Formula 2: flat 3 KP, unknown number of mafia: 15-X vs X Lynch scum, kill 3 town: 12 - X vs X - 1. Lynch scum, kill 3 town: 9 - X vs X - 2. Lynch scum, kill 3 town: 6 - X vs X - 3. Lunch scum, kill 3 town??? 3- X vs X - 4.
This obviously cannot continue and the last scum must be dead here, so X <= 4 in this scenario. X < 4 would make the scumread too small for the game, IMHO. So balance says that scum should be exactly 4 here, and to win, town needs to kill all scum in a row, starting now.
So what I'll do tonight is give you a list of the 4 scummiest shits and you lynch them in order. If KP stays 3, then you are in the bottom scenario and every day is lylo. If you're in the top scenario, you can take a brief breath after killing the three scummers.
Obviously I'm expecting to be dead tomorrow, but maybe there's a backup medic. Who knows.
On March 15 2019 03:41 Acrofales wrote: Time for setup speculation part 2, now with 3p!
I looked over onegu's filter and most of my reasons for scumreading him is his utter disinterest in finding scum. That is totally explainable as 3p. However, it's also totally explainable as scum. So here goes:
If onegu is scum, see my previous post, and you just gotta kill him.
If onegu is a survivor: Formula 1, nothing changes, except that instead of it being 5v2 after lynching 3 scum, its 4v2v1. Imho, always lynch onegu at this point, unless you caught a 4th scummer redhanded doing scummy-as-fuck stuff. Otherwise, you can't distinguish between 5v2 and 4v2v1, and lynching town in the 4v2v1 situation means town loses. Lynching the claimed 3p is a "safe play". He is definitely not town, as town doesn't claim 3p unless they want to lose the game, and he might just be scum trying to escape. Note that it isn't safe to lynch onegu the 3p *before* you get down to the single NK in this formula.
Formula 2: Without a medic, we have already lost: 14-X vs X vs 1 11-X vs X - 1 vs 1 8-X vs X - 2 vs 1 5 - X vs X - 3 vs 1 If X = 4 this is endgame. So either FF blows up a scummer with a bomb (meaning scum are a bunch of fricking idiots) or we still have a medic floating about.
In either case, if we get the medic save, it is never safe to lynch onegu the 3p. It is always necessary to lynch onegu the scum. At some point town is gonna have to decide what onegu is.
Onegu the SK.
This scenario just seems really really unlikely. Non-compulsive SKs are such a broken role that I don't think we got one. Which means that *either* the SK stacked KP 3 times, for which we only have circumstantial evidence on N1, or the scumteam has only 2 KP.
Neither of these scenarios seems likely at all. So I'd rule out this scenario. Moreover, I actually checked the OP, and it says:
The town's win condition:
The town wins when all mafia are eliminated.
This seems pretty clearcut. There is no malevolent 3p in the game, or this wincon wouldn't work. So onegu is not an SK.
Your hosts at the Dead Zone Show tend to agree with this analysis, and at least the general sentiment that we must try our hardest to lynch into scum. There should be no more talk of throw-away lynches to thin lurkers or bad players at this point.
waste of time post
If that post that took a minute to write was a waste of time, what does that make your question? Please read the thread in the future, and you won't need to waste so much of other people's time. =/
On March 15 2019 12:20 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Ever-faithful listener and #1 Dead Zone Show fan LightningStrike calls in with the following question:
On March 15 2019 11:40 LightningStrike wrote: Dear Faithful host: What you make of Moscta's claim and actions from today? Sincerely, LS
We're still trying to wrap our heads around the claim. We agree on the general scumminess of darthfoley and will be voting there as we figure out the rest of the day. We'll be interested in seeing any letter addressed from Professor Acrofales regarding the target of today's lynch. During the night cycle he argued strongly that we need to lynch Oatsmaster, and we'd like to see some more reasoning for that target compared to df.
Now for the claim itself, we're not sure whether we believe it. There was some weirdness, a so-called 'ploy', around last night's check. Similarly, the timing of the claim was odd. Why post a claim with almost the full night ahead so that scum can decide whether to shoot you? mocsta was around for just before the flips, so that would have been the more logical time for the claim to come out.
The scum motivation for this would be if we're in a do or die situation like the Professor pointed out, and df is town. This would cement a scum victory if we followed the claimed check blindly.
On the other hand, we have been reading mocsta as town, and historically they have acted quite compulsively. From that perspective, your hosts are pondering whether a town mocsta would try to fake claim to ensure they got the lynch they wanted. We haven't followed their past career closely enough to know if this is something they would do, but it does seem possible.
The alternative is that we're over-thinking this and mocsta really does moonlight as a private eye, but overall the claim needs to be clarified since something smells off to us here at the show.
okay so this post, right before this wriggles seems to "know" that df is mafia with a lot of confidence
On March 15 2019 12:03 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Though, on reflection, is that a slip from our red friend DarthFoley?
right so like its a joke but that comes from no question at all that he thinks DF is mafia because of the red check from mocsta In the post analyzing mocsta, he states that the claim is off but he doesnt commit to a read on mocsta because of that and that seems to me like a lot of hedging kinda seeing where the town read him and then commit to that read. Like he basically says "shrug, i dunno its weird, dont look at me i dont know". Again, another post that looks good but says absolutely nothing.
Im just gonna stop here for now, but throughout his filter, theres a lack of like interest to actually get the people he thinks is scum lynched. He kinda waffles a bit, plays a bit of mentor advice role but legitimately just hides in the shadows. His show is just a way to fluff up his posts, and if you notice, for the most part he doesnt actually progress anything in his show. Its basically him answering some questions and peacing out. So he is putting his opinion in the thread but not actually using it for any reason whatsoever to look townie.
Theres a reason Palmar wanted him to die.
this is the lynch for today
##vote wriggles
We have a town read on mocsta, which if you don't know that seems to go back to not actually following the show very closely. This read was made before the cop claim came out. That post details that despite the claim, we still thought mocsta was a member of our fair town. There could be mafia motivation to the claim, but based on our earlier read and the inconsistencies in the claim, we thought it was some sort of ploy to get people behind a DF lynch.
As for the last point, outside of weekends we have only a few hours to actively post in the evening. This also happens to be when a lot of people are away or asleep, thus the title of the show. We're playing the game by trying to advance reads, comment on current events, and basically be an open book to any question we're asked in our fan mail. If we don't look like we're pushing lynches that's because we're not, in the sense that we can't be around to spam "lynch X" for the four hours before the lynch. If people don't read the thread or want to remember what was written further back than a few hours ago, we can't really do anything about that.
The claim needs to be verified because something smells fishy, means that you thought its some sort of ploy from town? Your words and your explanation afterwards don’t make sense.
I really don’t care why you decided that this format is how you want to interact with the game, I care that you come in, answer some questions and then not use any time at all to promote your lynch targets. There’s no proactivity in your play, it’s all reactive. Like it’s actually literally all reactive. Which is extremely scummy because you want to blend in and make sure that you react appropriately and not take risks in being proactive
Oats doesn't like reading, or more likely is scum lying through their teeth, so here's the quote from the original post:
"On the other hand, we have been reading mocsta as town, and historically they have acted quite compulsively. From that perspective, your hosts are pondering whether a town mocsta would try to fake claim to ensure they got the lynch they wanted. We haven't followed their past career closely enough to know if this is something they would do, but it does seem possible."
This came out before mocsta admitted to the fake claim.
We've been pro-active in some ways for this game. We've been the only one who was really pushing your scum buddy Tubesock until the last lynch cycle. We were also one of the few people taking heat off of people we had town reads on by dismantling the shoddy and clumsy cases being made against them. Too bad this didn't work for Chezinu, but let's look at the wagon, shall we? Take your pick of Pandain or Onegu for scum:
Please let us know if you notice any mistakes. The deadline is Wednesday, Mar 13 11:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00), which is in .
We've got half the scum team pushing Chez, and then your buddy about to get lynched voting you uselessly instead of doing anything to help town.
You summed up your post on mocsta with that line so im talking about that line. Not the rest of the literal waffle in your post.
I wasnt in thread when chez got all those votes anyway, when I left it was 7 tube 4 onegu 3 chez 2 mz stop saying that makes me scum because i wasnt there
TL;DR I sheep my vote to Acro - He deserves this much for the only guy left giving a real shit about the game If this is it - Its been a bittersweet pleasure & I think Pandain + Rels are scum
Im feeling much better about DF - I prob more wanted him to be scum, then I thought he was scum.
I actually watched the whole thing and I think you're town now I thought your claim was shitty but I understand the attempt now, and I think the reaction you got out of DF was pretty good
Lots of things in the video ofc I don't agree with the scumread on me. You say I'm backseating and just popping off from time to time, and that's why I'm scum; but this doesn't apply to me. As scum, I take the town leadership and get the lynches I want. As town I do my own thing when I have time to play. p:
There are two things I really liked in the video: - the BH post about lurkers. I also have the mindset that most of the scumteam are lurkers, and have been watching town self-desotry themselves from the beginning. That's why actually the best lynch everyday would have been someone like ExO; not the most exciting one, but a good chance to hit scum - Oats' response to rsoul's scumread of BC and DF, commenting that her DF's scumread is "the worst scumread he's ever seen". That's might be a good parnter indicator right there. I didn't find Acro's point on Oats / BC beta / alpha very scummy, but this is way better
Now one question: why do you think my reasonning on Onegu(s claim is wrong?
On March 17 2019 00:17 Rels wrote: Acro and TS findings on Oats' read on TS is a great find. The only thing I didn't understand was how the fuck TS posts at the beginning were supposed to be traps, but since Oats showed he believes them, it doesn't matter
I mean, believing in them means that he thought through it beforehand yes?
again, how does that make me mafia?
'cause you still scumread him after that ... that's the whole point lol
didnt say jack shit about rsouls read on BC.
i scumread tube because he didnt vote for himself as mayor at the start. but that turned out to not be a real alignment indicator so i dropped it
TL;DR I sheep my vote to Acro - He deserves this much for the only guy left giving a real shit about the game If this is it - Its been a bittersweet pleasure & I think Pandain + Rels are scum
Im feeling much better about DF - I prob more wanted him to be scum, then I thought he was scum.
I actually watched the whole thing and I think you're town now I thought your claim was shitty but I understand the attempt now, and I think the reaction you got out of DF was pretty good
Lots of things in the video ofc I don't agree with the scumread on me. You say I'm backseating and just popping off from time to time, and that's why I'm scum; but this doesn't apply to me. As scum, I take the town leadership and get the lynches I want. As town I do my own thing when I have time to play. p:
There are two things I really liked in the video: - the BH post about lurkers. I also have the mindset that most of the scumteam are lurkers, and have been watching town self-desotry themselves from the beginning. That's why actually the best lynch everyday would have been someone like ExO; not the most exciting one, but a good chance to hit scum - Oats' response to rsoul's scumread of BC and DF, commenting that her DF's scumread is "the worst scumread he's ever seen". That's might be a good parnter indicator right there. I didn't find Acro's point on Oats / BC beta / alpha very scummy, but this is way better
Now one question: why do you think my reasonning on Onegu(s claim is wrong?
Literally DF hasn’t even flipped yet you muppet
talking about BC here
On March 17 2019 02:52 Oatsmaster wrote:
On March 17 2019 00:17 Rels wrote: Acro and TS findings on Oats' read on TS is a great find. The only thing I didn't understand was how the fuck TS posts at the beginning were supposed to be traps, but since Oats showed he believes them, it doesn't matter
I mean, believing in them means that he thought through it beforehand yes?
again, how does that make me mafia?
'cause you still scumread him after that ... that's the whole point lol
We'd also like to point out, RE activity and being interested in the game, that this is our most active game on this site, ever.
My next longest filter is Insane Mafia 2 which spans a whole 7 pages of game posts over a few weeks and we end-gamed that one. Our filter usually ranges in the 1-5 page area, so don't come at me with that stuff, it's old hat. If you really want, I'll go find the crappy cases people made based on activity and 'interest' that resulted in mislynch from back then too.
EPT
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