On March 16 2019 12:04 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: Ok i finally made it home. I think mocstas claim is wayyy too sloppy to be scum. I don't think this clears DF. I believe onegu's claim and I also believe we're at lylo so I'm not real impressed with the people who are pushing him rn.
Why do you believe Onegu's claim?
Mostly because of his breadcrumb. I know that's not the strongest reasoning in the world but on a potential lylo lynch I'd rather not take chances. I also think his play is consistent with a survivor type role.
His breadcrumb was made only a day and a half before the claim, just after Acro started attacking him though. When you say his play is consistent with survivor, are you talking about before or after his claim?
On March 09 2019 06:53 rsoultin wrote: Lol >< yay for reads lists! \o/
LightningStrike Vivax Holyflare Acrofales
Raynpelikoneet Mocsta Wave of Shadow Grackaroni
sicklucker Oatsmaster - impression reads aren't advancing but not sure this will hold up after the filter dive I didn't do tictock
Damdred
Chezinu Alakaslam - not happy + what now he has to think cause he thought I had no scumreads? Mr. Wiggles
Ace ExO_
Bloodycobbler Darthfoley
Null-reads Onegu - no shiny hipster reads (scum) vs. so uncaring (town) Fecalfeast - seems to have lost interest Rels - pissed at me man -_-
Dunno - would need to look at them closer Tumblewood Jockmcplop [UoN]Sentinel tubesock Pandain replaced by AMG Meapak_Ziphh
*Anything that's changed I think I've added a comment to?
Out for the night. We've got an early morning tomorrow.
On March 09 2019 08:59 Oatsmaster wrote: Darthfoley is actually the worst scumread I’ve seen ever what
I dunno if acro found this. but i think its an important post
I saw it. I thought it was a pretty bizarre defense of someone he hadn't mentioned before in the whole game.
I think I wrote that in one of my many posts about Oats.
What did you think was important about it?
Why would I mention him if no one is scumreading him and he’s my townread?!?
I've been thinking back to N2, and at that time DF was a nullish townread for me. I had some reasons down to town him, but his inactivity and the fact that nobody mentioned him at all was starting to worry me.
Going over dead townies filter, that idea is confirmed. HF had him down as "someone he should read" and mentioned that either ExO or DF was scum (although I don't really follow why). Rayn wanted AMG's thoughts on him and didn't really have any of his own. WoS same story.
Rsoultin scummed him, mainly for continuously forgetting he was in the game.
Yet you had him as a hard town read. So hard that your only response to rsoul's list is to chainsaw defend him. Without mentioning him at all before ever in your filter. In fact, you seem very suspicious of absolutely everybody in the game. Except Lamp, DF and Wiggles. It is just so incongruent that you chainsaw defend DF here.
On March 09 2019 01:52 Oatsmaster wrote: my scumlist: sl rsoul grack ace tube slam
Why jump down her throat over one of her scumreads, which should at BEST be a slightly green null to you at this point. It just... doesn't add up. You aren't trying to read the game and find scum. You are simply attacking people who disagree with your pre-ordained list, which had rsoul as scum and DF as town (the latter made up on the spot for no apparent reason. Your rsoul scumread at least has some stuff in it).
Of course, you do jump down peoples' throats for having scumreads on your townreads. There was the whole WEIRD tubesock <> wiggles thing that you poked your nose into.
I am simply going to quote my earlier post on it, but here I ignored Oats as I was focusing on TS vs Wiggles. But TS brought up a good point, which we will go into afterwards: + Show Spoiler [long post detailing TS vs Wiggles] +
On March 08 2019 21:47 Acrofales wrote: Hmmm, I think I'm starting to figure it out on my own, I'm just reaching a different conclusion.
Sorry for being a bit dense, but this is actually a super-interesting exchange that got totally snowed under in the HF-BH house of horror.
On March 07 2019 12:54 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Our dedicated fan Oatsmaster also writes in:
On March 07 2019 02:30 Oatsmaster wrote:
On March 06 2019 21:47 Tubesock wrote: Wiggles is funny to me. I feel like I can just take his case on me, and find/replace his name for mine and submit it with equal fervor. Plus we voted on both wagons so we can’t be too far off.
This should make wriggles town to him right because he does the exact same things as wriggles
This is a funny point that was missed on my first read through. If Tubesock thinks my play looks the same as what I've been pointing out in his, then he should probably read me similarly to his own alignment. If he thinks that makes me look like mafia, that's probably that scum guilt eating him up inside. Oats didn't let that slip slip his attention. Bravo!
I'm trying to sort out this tangled up mess too. It just seems disingenuous to say this, but I can't quite put my finger on why.
Let me try rewording it, and Oats, TS and Wiggles correct me if this is what they thought:
On March 06 2019 11:28 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Tubesock fell off the face of the earth. Still scum though.
Got to pressure vote trfel near the start of the day and park the vote because the rest of us ran with a case. No posting into D2 means no pressure from the lynch fallout. Pushed the Palmar is scum thing early without needing to commit hard on it or later comment on HF's announcement of a Palmar lynch.
We've only gotten two reads out of TS on trfel and conversion and they've both flipped now. Besides that we have zero information on where their head's at, scum-hunting wise. Lurking without offering anything to town.
TS responds to this case saying that it doesn't feel right that Wiggles reads him as scum for this, as Wiggles has done exactly the same. Therefore if Wiggles is *town* he should realize that TS and he had the same behaviour and is therefore also town.
I don't actually see TS drawing conclusions from it, just saying that it's a bullshit case, at this point.
Oats chips in and says that it's weird, because if TS is town, and knows that the behaviour in the bullshit case comes from a townie, then he must see Wiggles as a townie.
I'm not sure I agree with that, because there is a major difference in their behaviour now:
Wiggles thinks tubesock's behaviour for which he was cased was scummy. Tubesock just thinks that Wiggles exhibited the same behaviour, not that the behaviour is scummy.
So if TS scumreads Wiggles, it isn't for the behaviour itself (which he thinks he shares), but rather for the hipocrisy of finding that behaviour scummy. But I do see where Oats is coming from. He just read too much into it. My real issue is the follow-up from Wiggles that I quoted at the top:
At this point we have Wiggles scumming TS for behaviour that TS says was the same as his own, and we don't have TS scumming Wiggles, just pointing out the hipocrisy. Wiggles tunnels in on it and says "well, if you see this as scummy then you must be scum yourself". This just seems super disingenuous and Wiggles isn't really trying to figure out whether TS is scum or town, just paint him red and call it a day.
On March 08 2019 12:55 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Our next letter is quite unpleasant. The contents of if describe various threats of death and bodily harm to your host in graphic detail, and the letter also looks to be smeared with what appears to be excrement.
Though the signature is partially obscured by said foul substance, we can make out some of the letters: A--of-l-s.
Now, we have a suspicion of who this misguided individual could be, and so we'll be addressing this hate-mail.
On March 08 2019 05:48 Vivax wrote: Looks like Ill have to vote BH then to ensure this isnt another fuckup day.
Just look at wiggles first, please?
His posts where he talks to TS seem good to me. TS was like "If Im mayor, ill sheep HF", effectively avoiding to give out an opinion on anyone. WIggles picked up on that.
Third post he calls out like 3 or 4 dudes (you, sent, conversion) for not sticking their neck out, effectively sticking out his own.
Idk, just doesnt seem mafia to me. Also, he most likely was the first to catch TS, so kudos to him.
I can do any other player I have listed in my final list. And BH is the next one in it.
Ok. You're right. The interaction with TS is actually okay :/
But it's from this point onward that I just read mehhhh:
On March 04 2019 14:20 Mr. Wiggles wrote: What do you think of the Acro case Oats?
I've been going back re-reading his posts and the case on him, but I'm having trouble making up my mind. I'll probably sleep on it and re-read again in the morning.
"please tell me what to think, I'll get back" (never did)
On March 05 2019 05:44 Ace wrote: Blazinghand don't get yourself lynched for bs. If you're town you just waste a day as there's no real discussion being generated regarding you, and it's an easy wagon for Scum to hop on.
Thank you! Felt like I was yelling into the wind
Claims he was advocating for BH being town (although I have no idea how Ace got there either), when he was advocating for a mayor to shiv BH rather than lynching him:
On March 05 2019 04:45 Mr. Wiggles wrote: What's with the BH train? If you want to kill a hardcore lurker like that why not use the mayor lynch? I don't see the benefit
On March 05 2019 12:23 WaveofShadow wrote: Anyway, as much as tooting my own horn is super fun (man I was a goddamn all-star scum player---I think my winrate might have been better than HFs)---
I want to make this clear before I post a little on rsoul We are lynching ONLY HF OR BH tomorrow. The game can't proceed properly until that's done. Of those two, I'd rather HF die. Not sure if for personal/fun reasons or not, but whateva. I will not be pushing anyone else actively.
I'll be interested to see what you say about rsoul. Don't read her that way and would rather she doesn't catch a bullet.
Hopefully someone takes care of BH tonight. I get that HF needs to flip too. =/
"Please tell me what to think" take 2.
Nothing he did in D1 was to take solid stances. The very start of the game he was pressuring TS a bit, but dropped it when he got no support and it kinda just faded.
On March 05 2019 12:34 Mr. Wiggles wrote: As much as I didn't like Conversion, Marv seems cool so far.
Not only is this a lie (he scummed trfel over conversion), but marv came in looking pretty townie. If wiggles is scum this is such a safe play! Gain easy town credit when later in the night you shank him. So fucking simple (and btw, I've done this).
On March 05 2019 14:50 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Rayn, is your read on Acro still the same? You had him pegged as scum earlier.
I don't see it after the second half of the day and the reaction to the Palmar lynch. He's helping move the game forward in a useful way now, even if he's wrong about some things (like me)
"Please tell me what to think" take 3.
Then there's a lot of just generally just looking like he's saying stuff without actually saying stuff.
I mean. Do I have a sure read on Wiggles? No. Not really. He could just be a town that's really struggling with the length of the game. But I'm more confident that he's scum than I am that BH is. And for the rest I'm sure Palmar had a damned good reason to suddenly spam the thread with Wiggles is Mafia. He didn't do that with Sentinel, BC or HF. He read Wiggles filter and you can see the alarm bells go off in his head. He never really said why. But it's blendy shit and reads like a blendy mafia.
I have played a scumgame with Wiggles a looooong time ago, and remember bussing him at some point for being all blendy and lurky and stuff. Same as this play. But not sure I ever played with town Wiggles, so meta case is not a good case here.
Now this individual claims several times that your host is asking callers to tell him what to think about some of our other citizens, rather than making up his own mind. We can say that this is a patently false statement.
After our first interaction asking about esteemed citizen Acrofales (no relation to A--of-l-s, we hope), we made up our minds that we consider him to be of a green persuasion. See our lack of joining the mob looking to do him violence on Day 1. We later press Rayn (who we are suspicious of!) about their read of Acrofales (who again, we think is town). The case put forward by Rayn appears to be a bunch of hooey from our perspective, so we want to see if he'll double-down on it, which they have more than done throughout the night and this day cycle, even going so far as to avoid the other wagons.
rsoultin was another of our town reads, so any cases put forth to attempt to undermine or sway opinion to the contrary were of interest to us. This was especially important, because cases made and pushed throughout the night could persuade the vigilante element of our society to take things into their own hands. Many of our players are a little buck-wild, to put things lightly, so it was a valid concern.
Lastly, regarding our dearly departed suicidal team mate BH, we did not want to see a large wagon on him on D1. We felt that the wagons and votes of the day would provide information that would be useful, and that this would be subverted by having the entire town jump on a martyr who we could instead let the mayor take care of. We did not once claim a town read on BH, but have leaned null (early) to scum (recently). Regardless of BH's alignment the Day 1 wagon was very easy for scum to hop onto if they so desired without needing to put forward any contribution.
I really do like the flavour you're putting into these posts
I'm also starting to see some glimmers of town in you more recently, but your play still feels very off. I still agree with rsoul. It's very peanut gallery. You seem more invested than FF at least. But some things just don't add up. The tunnel on tubesock that nobody is paying any attention to is just so... easy.
Also the reasoning around hopping on the trfel wagon feels like feigned interest.
You can literally just go where the wind blows. There's some light pressure, a bit of a tunnel, and a lot of blehhhhhh. Enough to look interested, but not enough to actually contribute.
Conclusion: still Wiggles
Tubesock's analysis of Oats jumping into the middle here:
On March 08 2019 04:10 Oatsmaster wrote: Mafia boi
If wriggles does the same thing as you in that his case on you can be applied to him, and you are town, doesn’t that mean he’s also town? How does it mean he’s mafia
I never scumread him. So, it’s hilarious you are saying I’m scum for this, but apparently Wiggles is somehow town for doing exactly that. Take a look at my two posts:
On March 06 2019 18:52 Tubesock wrote: Wiggles, you’ve been scumming me since before I even scummed Trfel. Yet you’ve never voted me. Why not? You seem pretty convinced, you have some others who agree. Think about what you say because I’m going to have great satisfaction copy and pasting things from your case on me in my defense.
Then
On March 06 2019 21:47 Tubesock wrote: Wiggles is funny to me. I feel like I can just take his case on me, and find/replace his name for mine and submit it with equal fervor. Plus we voted on both wagons so we can’t be too far off.
Why do you think i wrote the big and bold?? It’s a fucking trap and you fell right into it.
Oatsmaster didn’t bother to read anything more than the single post and looking for “reads” at the shallowest of levels. You went straight to Tube is mafia because of this “slip” you found. Yet you had no idea it was a trap and you fell into it!!!
This action on your part is representative of your entire game. You are mafia.
On March 08 2019 04:10 Oatsmaster wrote: Mafia boi
If wriggles does the same thing as you in that his case on you can be applied to him, and you are town, doesn’t that mean he’s also town? How does it mean he’s mafia
I never scumread him. So, it’s hilarious you are saying I’m scum for this, but apparently Wiggles is somehow town for doing exactly that. Take a look at my two posts:
On March 06 2019 18:52 Tubesock wrote: Wiggles, you’ve been scumming me since before I even scummed Trfel. Yet you’ve never voted me. Why not? You seem pretty convinced, you have some others who agree. Think about what you say because I’m going to have great satisfaction copy and pasting things from your case on me in my defense.
Then
On March 06 2019 21:47 Tubesock wrote: Wiggles is funny to me. I feel like I can just take his case on me, and find/replace his name for mine and submit it with equal fervor. Plus we voted on both wagons so we can’t be too far off.
Why do you think i wrote the big and bold?? It’s a fucking trap and you fell right into it.
Oatsmaster didn’t bother to read anything more than the single post and looking for “reads” at the shallowest of levels. You went straight to Tube is mafia because of this “slip” you found. Yet you had no idea it was a trap and you fell into it!!!
This action on your part is representative of your entire game. You are mafia.
I see that you and I have different definitions of funny then, whatever.
I’m wrong about that, carry on
He is scumming TS, right? Now TS just omgus'd him. Instead of pushing, he backs down. Hard:
On March 08 2019 04:10 Oatsmaster wrote: Mafia boi
If wriggles does the same thing as you in that his case on you can be applied to him, and you are town, doesn’t that mean he’s also town? How does it mean he’s mafia
I never scumread him. So, it’s hilarious you are saying I’m scum for this, but apparently Wiggles is somehow town for doing exactly that. Take a look at my two posts:
On March 06 2019 18:52 Tubesock wrote: Wiggles, you’ve been scumming me since before I even scummed Trfel. Yet you’ve never voted me. Why not? You seem pretty convinced, you have some others who agree. Think about what you say because I’m going to have great satisfaction copy and pasting things from your case on me in my defense.
Then
On March 06 2019 21:47 Tubesock wrote: Wiggles is funny to me. I feel like I can just take his case on me, and find/replace his name for mine and submit it with equal fervor. Plus we voted on both wagons so we can’t be too far off.
Why do you think i wrote the big and bold?? It’s a fucking trap and you fell right into it.
Oatsmaster didn’t bother to read anything more than the single post and looking for “reads” at the shallowest of levels. You went straight to Tube is mafia because of this “slip” you found. Yet you had no idea it was a trap and you fell into it!!!
This action on your part is representative of your entire game. You are mafia.
Explain this trap like I'm 5 because I don't get it.
I think it’s the part where he implied that he thought wiggles was scum but he never actually thought he was scum and I thought that he thought that wriggles was scum so I got caught oh noo
Now think of a town Oats. Does town!Oats who is scumming TS suddenly think that the guy he just caught for being mafia "laid a trap" and he, town!Oats, fell for it, and is now being scummed himself? Or did the situation just get too hot to handle for scum!Oats? Clearly the second is the better explanation. Why? Because if town!Oats thought that he had actually been caught by a TS "trap" he would
EITHER call it bullshit, not a trap, stupid scumslip and push TS hard OR believe it was indeed a town!TS trap and stop scumming him
Instead, we have scum!Oats next mention of Tubesock:
On March 09 2019 01:52 Oatsmaster wrote: my scumlist: sl rsoul grack ace tube slam
The "whoops, I forgot I backed off that guy" list.
GG. Oats
And I really tried. I really thought you might be town after all with your post about Wiggles scum. But nice job throwing your buddy under the bus.
I see you never actually connected that list with something I said earlier huh.
I believe the stuff with tube was during the HF/Bh which was an extremely annoying day. The way that tube reacted to his trap thing I quite liked and I didn’t really want to go after him at that point.
Rsoul scumreading DF had no reasons attached to it and at that point, I did think she was mafia so I wanted her to explain why DF was mafia which is the point of that post. Unfortunately she died so Er I was wrong about her, embarassing
TL;DR I sheep my vote to Acro - He deserves this much for the only guy left giving a real shit about the game If this is it - Its been a bittersweet pleasure & I think Pandain + Rels are scum
Im feeling much better about DF - I prob more wanted him to be scum, then I thought he was scum.
I actually watched the whole thing and I think you're town now I thought your claim was shitty but I understand the attempt now, and I think the reaction you got out of DF was pretty good
Lots of things in the video ofc I don't agree with the scumread on me. You say I'm backseating and just popping off from time to time, and that's why I'm scum; but this doesn't apply to me. As scum, I take the town leadership and get the lynches I want. As town I do my own thing when I have time to play. p:
There are two things I really liked in the video: - the BH post about lurkers. I also have the mindset that most of the scumteam are lurkers, and have been watching town self-desotry themselves from the beginning. That's why actually the best lynch everyday would have been someone like ExO; not the most exciting one, but a good chance to hit scum - Oats' response to rsoul's scumread of BC and DF, commenting that her DF's scumread is "the worst scumread he's ever seen". That's might be a good parnter indicator right there. I didn't find Acro's point on Oats / BC beta / alpha very scummy, but this is way better
Now one question: why do you think my reasonning on Onegu(s claim is wrong?
On March 17 2019 00:17 Rels wrote: Acro and TS findings on Oats' read on TS is a great find. The only thing I didn't understand was how the fuck TS posts at the beginning were supposed to be traps, but since Oats showed he believes them, it doesn't matter
I mean, believing in them means that he thought through it beforehand yes?
I don't think there's anything wrong with what you say about MZ. But I did like his response yesterday when I asked if he saw himself as null. I found this post:
On March 15 2019 03:02 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: I might swap Grack with Rels/FF but other than that I think your reads are spot on Acro.
So you think you're null?
You don't have me as scum? You almost the same reads I do? I think my play so far justifies a null read on me, that's why I haven't jumped down the throats of the many people who have called me scum lol.
I'm town, as long as we're lynching people I think are scum in a lylo situation I'm good with people reading me however they please.
completely inline with how I'd expect a townie to respond.
So given that we caught Oatsmaster with his hand in the cookie jar today, I don't really feel like spending the energy to un-null my null read right now.
Also, I'm wary of wagons being pushed by people I haven't towned yet... for obvious reasons.
On March 17 2019 01:00 Mr. Wiggles wrote: We've got Professor Acrofales on the line. Please stay tuned as we conduct an interval with this esteemed criminologist into the merits of the darthfoley/Oatsmaster cases:
On March 17 2019 00:01 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Before we get into the show, we are paging Professor Acrofales, paging Professor Acrofales.
If you're still here, we would like to know your thoughts on one 'darthfoley'. We consider him the strongest alternate lynch to Oats that we can rally town behind today.
Why are you looking at an alternative wagon? What do you think of Oats?
On March 14 2019 12:15 Grackaroni wrote: Hello Mr. Wiggles.
Long time listener, first time caller.
My issue with your program is that it focuses heavily on night actions and tube socks, which makes for somewhat dull listening in my evening hours. Frequently questions are explored in great detail that are of little value. I fear that your sock fetish frequently distracts from more engaging topics.
Could you give me some of your thoughts on the following players:
Oatsmaster Rels Jockmcplop Mocsta
snip...
Oatsmaster:
Null to scum read, similar strength to Jock. Looking through the filter was pretty hard. There's lots of random commentary and questions that don't seem to accomplish much or go anywhere. Lots of their scum reads come on hard seem to drop pretty soon thereafter. Reads a lot like Oats is throwing crap at the wall and looking for what might stick. Maybe that's a good way to look for reactions pretty early in the game, but coming in to this stage, it doesn't really add too much. I'm not familiar with meta any more, so maybe this is Oats' normal play?
Overall, I'd contrast Oats' play to Mocsta's where the latter's shows a more clear progression in the reads compared to Oats, even if they similarly try to push their own reads regardless of town sentiment. Mocsta's reads a lot more like town trying to scumhunt compared to Oats.
Your case has done a lot to build on that read, and we think it's pretty strong. Your point about lots of throwaway content meshes well with what we found scummy. I'm not sure how convincing the BC association is in isolation to other scum flips, but the flip-flop around voting off-wagon is a great point.
The stuff around the rsoultin and TS interaction is also good. Oats definitely backs off hard when the pressure starts to build.
On the other hand, your host has a strong gut read on DF and dives into his filter only serve to reinforce it. We posted some more rationale up above contrasting DF to other lurkers like ExO_.
Do you disagree that DF is scum? A red flip on DF or Oats would provide more association against the other one.
Your host may have a tendency to tunnel into what they consider strong reads, but we're probably in a do-or-die situation, so we need to know if our town reads think we're on the wrong track here. We've backed off TS for the day since a lot of people aren't seeing it anymore, and we don't want last minute shenanigans to be available to scum over a split wagon. It's important that Liquidia commits to a lynch so we don't get screwed. The staff of the Dead Zone Show consider this to best be one of DF or Oats today.
I really like how so far, the most active people in this game haven’t been mafia. Vivax not mafia. HF not mafia, rsoul not mafia. And from acros perspective, he’s not mafia. So therefore at lylo that most of you believe, you guys are lynching into the group of most active people, aka me, all who have flipped town so far. Hmmm maybe it means I’ll flip town too.
Wriggles, what in the world are you talking about rsoul and ts reaction? When did any pressure whatsoever start to build and how did I back off because of that?
On March 16 2019 17:16 Oatsmaster wrote: Wriggles is mafia
Lets start with this post
On March 15 2019 11:56 Mr. Wiggles wrote: In recent news, suspected mafia accomplice Onegu has claimed the role of 3rd Party Survivor. Your host is pleased that their read of 'not-town' turned out correct. However, there still remains the matter of determining the absolute truth in this case.
We are not sure that it made sense for Onegu to claim 3rd party at night. There's no threat of lynch at that point, and it is doubtful scum would shoot them given the general suspicion surrounding their business in the town. So, what's the point of the claim at that time? Is it because the claim had been previously planned by scum and they were nervous in wanting to post after the lynch? Time will tell. This is yet another point added to a growing pile of inconsistencies surrounding Onegu's claimed allegiance.
Now, if our listeners would indulge us as we take a trip down a line of inquiry smelling of fine wine, we can theorise as to the possible scum motivations of Onegu's claim.
From the reads stated in calls to the show, Onegu was widely regarded as being a good lynch candidate and a likely member of Liquidia's most notorious crime family. Without a doubt, the pressure would have been on today. So, claiming 3rd party at this point allows Onegu to take himself out of the pool of suspects and buy more time. Given that town is likely on the brink of failure and needs to lynch correctly several times in a row (see professor Acrofales' excellent analysis) this provides benefit to scum since town will now be looking into their weaker reads, where the chance of mislynch is higher. Given that town's reads are likely to become more accurate over time, this gives a higher chance of success for scum than if we had simply proceeded with the Onegu lynch directly.
With this being said, we are still evaluating how to handle Onegu. He is surely not a member of our town, but is he a threat? After the events of last night, we may have a sure lock on another scum candidate, so this question can probably be put on the back burner for now.
We think it may be in our best interest to lynch him if we find ourselves in muddy waters in the next few cycles, but we can likely leave him be for today.
he doesnt really entertain the idea that Onegu is mafia fakeclaiming 3p seriously, instead wanting to take the claim at face value but like he isnt suspicious at all. Instead, its a really long part of fluff that basically says "meh hes probably survivor for no reason and I dont want to lynch him today" scummy
Your host does seriously entertain that Onegu can be scum, which is why the bulk of the above transcript is devoted to the idea that the claim doesn't make much sense for a real 3P and that there is definite scum motivation to make that claim. We think he's more likely scum than survivor, but on the chance he is survivor, we'd rather not give scum essentially a free round of night kills.
Given Professor Acrofales' analysis, we need to lynch into scum multiple times with no mislynches. We'd rather not take the chance on Onegu when we believe there are other scum to lynch who we feel just as strongly on. That's the whole point about if our reads aren't great coming in to the second or third scum lynch we can kill him then, since the expected value works out.
On March 15 2019 12:02 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Suspected criminal mastermind Oatsmaster calls in with the following question:
On March 15 2019 11:43 Oatsmaster wrote:
On March 15 2019 11:41 darthfoley wrote:
On March 15 2019 11:31 LightningStrike wrote: Moscta it does matter only because if it's a red check we just lynch them today and if they not well you get the picture but I assuming a red check because you going to just park your vote there. ##Vote: Darthfoley
Lol he didn't vote me because he redchecked me. He didn't even check me. He's voted me because I haven't given a shit about this game and been wrong one more time than he has (I wasn't on the Sent wagon). Lynching me in LYLO for silly reasons would however, cap off this shit show of a town
Why is it lylo?
We would direct their attention to the two recent journal articles published by esteemed citizen Professor Acrofales in the Liquidia Journal of Criminology:
On March 14 2019 17:54 Acrofales wrote: Tomorrow there's going to be 15 ppl alive if the KP stays the same. Pretty sure if you don't lynch scum, it's over:
Formula 1: #scum/2 rounded up (traitor doesn't count) 10 town vs 5 scum Lynch scum, kill 2 town: 8v4 Lynch scum, kill 2 town: 6v3 Lynch scum, kill 1 town: 5v2 Breathing space: town bought themselves a final mislynch.
If you lynch town: Lynch town, kill 3 town: 6v5 Lynch scum, kill 2 town: 4v4 and it's over.
So HAVE TO kill 3 scum in a row.
Formula 2: flat 3 KP, unknown number of mafia: 15-X vs X Lynch scum, kill 3 town: 12 - X vs X - 1. Lynch scum, kill 3 town: 9 - X vs X - 2. Lynch scum, kill 3 town: 6 - X vs X - 3. Lunch scum, kill 3 town??? 3- X vs X - 4.
This obviously cannot continue and the last scum must be dead here, so X <= 4 in this scenario. X < 4 would make the scumread too small for the game, IMHO. So balance says that scum should be exactly 4 here, and to win, town needs to kill all scum in a row, starting now.
So what I'll do tonight is give you a list of the 4 scummiest shits and you lynch them in order. If KP stays 3, then you are in the bottom scenario and every day is lylo. If you're in the top scenario, you can take a brief breath after killing the three scummers.
Obviously I'm expecting to be dead tomorrow, but maybe there's a backup medic. Who knows.
On March 15 2019 03:41 Acrofales wrote: Time for setup speculation part 2, now with 3p!
I looked over onegu's filter and most of my reasons for scumreading him is his utter disinterest in finding scum. That is totally explainable as 3p. However, it's also totally explainable as scum. So here goes:
If onegu is scum, see my previous post, and you just gotta kill him.
If onegu is a survivor: Formula 1, nothing changes, except that instead of it being 5v2 after lynching 3 scum, its 4v2v1. Imho, always lynch onegu at this point, unless you caught a 4th scummer redhanded doing scummy-as-fuck stuff. Otherwise, you can't distinguish between 5v2 and 4v2v1, and lynching town in the 4v2v1 situation means town loses. Lynching the claimed 3p is a "safe play". He is definitely not town, as town doesn't claim 3p unless they want to lose the game, and he might just be scum trying to escape. Note that it isn't safe to lynch onegu the 3p *before* you get down to the single NK in this formula.
Formula 2: Without a medic, we have already lost: 14-X vs X vs 1 11-X vs X - 1 vs 1 8-X vs X - 2 vs 1 5 - X vs X - 3 vs 1 If X = 4 this is endgame. So either FF blows up a scummer with a bomb (meaning scum are a bunch of fricking idiots) or we still have a medic floating about.
In either case, if we get the medic save, it is never safe to lynch onegu the 3p. It is always necessary to lynch onegu the scum. At some point town is gonna have to decide what onegu is.
Onegu the SK.
This scenario just seems really really unlikely. Non-compulsive SKs are such a broken role that I don't think we got one. Which means that *either* the SK stacked KP 3 times, for which we only have circumstantial evidence on N1, or the scumteam has only 2 KP.
Neither of these scenarios seems likely at all. So I'd rule out this scenario. Moreover, I actually checked the OP, and it says:
The town's win condition:
The town wins when all mafia are eliminated.
This seems pretty clearcut. There is no malevolent 3p in the game, or this wincon wouldn't work. So onegu is not an SK.
Your hosts at the Dead Zone Show tend to agree with this analysis, and at least the general sentiment that we must try our hardest to lynch into scum. There should be no more talk of throw-away lynches to thin lurkers or bad players at this point.
waste of time post
If that post that took a minute to write was a waste of time, what does that make your question? Please read the thread in the future, and you won't need to waste so much of other people's time. =/
On March 15 2019 12:20 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Ever-faithful listener and #1 Dead Zone Show fan LightningStrike calls in with the following question:
On March 15 2019 11:40 LightningStrike wrote: Dear Faithful host: What you make of Moscta's claim and actions from today? Sincerely, LS
We're still trying to wrap our heads around the claim. We agree on the general scumminess of darthfoley and will be voting there as we figure out the rest of the day. We'll be interested in seeing any letter addressed from Professor Acrofales regarding the target of today's lynch. During the night cycle he argued strongly that we need to lynch Oatsmaster, and we'd like to see some more reasoning for that target compared to df.
Now for the claim itself, we're not sure whether we believe it. There was some weirdness, a so-called 'ploy', around last night's check. Similarly, the timing of the claim was odd. Why post a claim with almost the full night ahead so that scum can decide whether to shoot you? mocsta was around for just before the flips, so that would have been the more logical time for the claim to come out.
The scum motivation for this would be if we're in a do or die situation like the Professor pointed out, and df is town. This would cement a scum victory if we followed the claimed check blindly.
On the other hand, we have been reading mocsta as town, and historically they have acted quite compulsively. From that perspective, your hosts are pondering whether a town mocsta would try to fake claim to ensure they got the lynch they wanted. We haven't followed their past career closely enough to know if this is something they would do, but it does seem possible.
The alternative is that we're over-thinking this and mocsta really does moonlight as a private eye, but overall the claim needs to be clarified since something smells off to us here at the show.
okay so this post, right before this wriggles seems to "know" that df is mafia with a lot of confidence
On March 15 2019 12:03 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Though, on reflection, is that a slip from our red friend DarthFoley?
right so like its a joke but that comes from no question at all that he thinks DF is mafia because of the red check from mocsta In the post analyzing mocsta, he states that the claim is off but he doesnt commit to a read on mocsta because of that and that seems to me like a lot of hedging kinda seeing where the town read him and then commit to that read. Like he basically says "shrug, i dunno its weird, dont look at me i dont know". Again, another post that looks good but says absolutely nothing.
Im just gonna stop here for now, but throughout his filter, theres a lack of like interest to actually get the people he thinks is scum lynched. He kinda waffles a bit, plays a bit of mentor advice role but legitimately just hides in the shadows. His show is just a way to fluff up his posts, and if you notice, for the most part he doesnt actually progress anything in his show. Its basically him answering some questions and peacing out. So he is putting his opinion in the thread but not actually using it for any reason whatsoever to look townie.
Theres a reason Palmar wanted him to die.
this is the lynch for today
##vote wriggles
We have a town read on mocsta, which if you don't know that seems to go back to not actually following the show very closely. This read was made before the cop claim came out. That post details that despite the claim, we still thought mocsta was a member of our fair town. There could be mafia motivation to the claim, but based on our earlier read and the inconsistencies in the claim, we thought it was some sort of ploy to get people behind a DF lynch.
As for the last point, outside of weekends we have only a few hours to actively post in the evening. This also happens to be when a lot of people are away or asleep, thus the title of the show. We're playing the game by trying to advance reads, comment on current events, and basically be an open book to any question we're asked in our fan mail. If we don't look like we're pushing lynches that's because we're not, in the sense that we can't be around to spam "lynch X" for the four hours before the lynch. If people don't read the thread or want to remember what was written further back than a few hours ago, we can't really do anything about that.
The claim needs to be verified because something smells fishy, means that you thought its some sort of ploy from town? Your words and your explanation afterwards don’t make sense.
I really don’t care why you decided that this format is how you want to interact with the game, I care that you come in, answer some questions and then not use any time at all to promote your lynch targets. There’s no proactivity in your play, it’s all reactive. Like it’s actually literally all reactive. Which is extremely scummy because you want to blend in and make sure that you react appropriately and not take risks in being proactive
Since none seems interested in lynching Onegu going with something my day 4 thing regarding night kills add in TT and df' s extra point. Will consolidate onto MZ. ##Unvote ##Vote: Maepak_Zipph
On March 17 2019 02:52 Acrofales wrote: I don't think there's anything wrong with what you say about MZ. But I did like his response yesterday when I asked if he saw himself as null. I found this post:
On March 15 2019 03:02 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: I might swap Grack with Rels/FF but other than that I think your reads are spot on Acro.
So you think you're null?
You don't have me as scum? You almost the same reads I do? I think my play so far justifies a null read on me, that's why I haven't jumped down the throats of the many people who have called me scum lol.
I'm town, as long as we're lynching people I think are scum in a lylo situation I'm good with people reading me however they please.
completely inline with how I'd expect a townie to respond.
So given that we caught Oatsmaster with his hand in the cookie jar today, I don't really feel like spending the energy to un-null my null read right now.
Also, I'm wary of wagons being pushed by people I haven't towned yet... for obvious reasons.
I’m sorry what? You are townreading someone who doesn’t believe that they can be townread. Dude can you take a step back and actually think about how town plays this game?
On March 16 2019 18:22 Acrofales wrote: Btw, I did like the point about AMG replacing out from playing a town dayvig. He knew the size of the thread when he replaced in, so it seems a bit weird. But I did understand it. Replacing in is always tricky and I kept up with most of the thread, but was still overwhelmed by the quantity of new posts every time I opened it.
Hard to call someone scum for getting overwhelmed, even if they have one of the coolest roles in the game.
What did AMG say about HF? Because honestly, I would 100% have shot HF in the face at daybreak on D2...
My to-do list:
Get a haircut Buy shoes Filter wiggles Filter pandain+AMG Kill Oats
Seems pretty good.
stop the tunnel and just open your eyes acro.
Mocsta, what do you think of the case?
why does my opinion matter? i thought you put me in scum category?
because i would prefer not to be mislynched and I would like everyones cooperation
On March 17 2019 03:07 Onegu wrote: Seriously If town wants to lynch scum lynch LS.
onegu, you seem like you dont really want to lynch me. If you are on the lynch of mafia, town wont want to lynch you because youve proven to be willing to kill mafia. Now im not mafia but I know who is mafia so will you join me?
I have a theory that scum kept acro alive because they knew if they killed him we'd just straight vote his reads and call it a day.
Looking at all these different wagons that pop up between myself, onegu, DF, and Mocsta strongly makes me suspect that people are trying really hard to prevent an oats lynch without looking like they are.
On March 17 2019 03:30 Meapak_Ziphh wrote: I have a theory that scum kept acro alive because they knew if they killed him we'd just straight vote his reads and call it a day.
Looking at all these different wagons that pop up between myself, onegu, DF, and Mocsta strongly makes me suspect that people are trying really hard to prevent an oats lynch without looking like they are.
EPT
