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Suspected criminal Rels calls in:
On March 17 2019 00:07 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2019 00:01 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Before we get into the show, we are paging Professor Acrofales, paging Professor Acrofales.
If you're still here, we would like to know your thoughts on one 'darthfoley'. We consider him the strongest alternate lynch to Oats that we can rally town behind today. how can he be stronger than ExO or MZ?
One of these things is not like the other! Your host does not see how MZ fits with ExO_ and DF, so we'll leave that contrast out.
The big difference is ExO_ comes in to the thread with their own opinions, while DF comes in with probing questions to try to guess town sentiment. We referred to this before as 'fishing'. We'll show some examples from early in the game below:
+ Show Spoiler [ExO_] +On March 04 2019 16:03 ExO_ wrote:Show nested quote +On March 04 2019 07:18 Damdred wrote:On March 04 2019 07:15 Fecalfeast wrote:On March 04 2019 07:03 Damdred wrote:
HF, RS, FF,Iamp can be the strong start of a town circle, and sents posts have been overall excellent so I would say hes town as well.
So 6 people is a good start so far.
Let's contknue. RS for sure tho? I'm decently sure about RS, a lot of the time when RS has been scum she is a bit pointless and tries to send certain people on tilt. HF and her are coexisting in the thread and not trying to make the other quit, that's town tell one. She is also prodding and looking into things in a way that makes me think she is doing it i a protein way. Like how she just explained how she had 8 scum tells, its concise has no real filler to make it look padded and just is (she likes to pad as scum as well). Also reads seem to be more fluid in how she approaches the game is looking g for things to change reads on. Pretty certain she is town. Without reading rsoul yet, I think I agree with this read. However I think it's more likely scum damdred town reading rsoul than town damdred town reading rsoul. Too early to be sure though. I don't like Damdreds Day1. In my very limited opinion he's not scum hunting, but sucking up and trying to be involved in a town circle. On March 04 2019 16:05 ExO_ wrote:
Jesus fuck I don't think rsoul could fake this 7 page filter. I don't like how much rsoul has asked for Damdreds approval, but overall I don't believe rsoul is scum.
So far:
Town: Rsoul
Scum: Damdred
Where the fuck is: Koshi On March 04 2019 16:10 ExO_ wrote:
I read acro's filter. I don't get a super strong scum vibe from it. I placed my vote on him when I was throwing a tantrum and fucked out of here not expecting to be back for a few days, but now I don't see why he's a big wagon. Going to unvote him for now. On March 04 2019 16:21 ExO_ wrote:
Hard for me to read iamp. I'm super guilty of scum reading anybody who accuses me -- and I hate be talked down to. iamp calls everyone trash and acts superior and I'm offended at how he just told me to fuck off instead of asking anything.
That seems to be the attitude of most here though so I guess I should just get over it.
That being said -- he's made a lot of short posts. He posted his one big case on Acro and then didn't really expand on it. Has just continued to push him with very low-effort posts.
Compare his filter with rsouls -- rsoul at least looks like she's trying to engage and figure out things, whereas iamp doesn't engage as much....but I don't think I can say at this point in time I think he's scum. I think he's probably a smug little town player who thinks he's god's gift to mafia
A LOT of people are mayor voting iamp though -- people I haven't even seen once. I guess that's the direction I'll head in next because I don't think iamp is a great mayor candidate at this time. On March 04 2019 16:30 ExO_ wrote:Show nested quote +On March 03 2019 20:12 Palmar wrote:To be fair I mostly like Acro just for these two posts. They're the logical way to play the game. Kill the policy lynch, continue playing. On March 03 2019 17:09 Acrofales wrote:
Enters Palmar: he claims to feel strongly about killing sent. So let him do it. All you need to decide is if Palmar is townie enough. But if we decide Palmar is townie enough to be mayor then he is free to kill whoever he likes. He sticks with sentinel and sentinel flips scum? We win, yay! Sheep Palmar into Armageddon. Sentinel flips town? We figure out if Palmars policy lynch is an ideological thing or a scum thing. Either way, we get information about Palmar out of this, which is a great thing to get out of D1.
On March 03 2019 17:11 Acrofales wrote:
Oh, also, if sent was actually playing and being townie, I'd be more inclined to want him to live. But he has used this "foil" to be an attention whore and cop out of doing anything else so far. Not town play. @Palmar, let's assume Acro is the leading lynch candidate but your vote could choose somebody else to lynch. Who would you lynch instead of Acro, that isn't Sent? Palmar's entire post history seems to be super focused on this policy lynch of Sent -- that's it. Town Reads HF, Town Reads Acro. He's not wanting to scum hunt on day 1, but go all in on a policy lynch. I don't think I mind having a strong conviction about the policy lynch, but I think I do mind only green reading other people and only pushing your one policy lynch. I think Palmar is scum.
+ Show Spoiler [Darthfoley] +On March 03 2019 11:19 darthfoley wrote:
So after 30 pages
Townish
Iamp - Might not've said huge amount of content, but I feel his tone/snarky responses feel townie. I feel it, in my plums.
Ticktock - He put in a fair amount of work trying to put forth some reads + quotes. Felt like a lot of work for mafia!TT that isn't known for tryharding, IIRC
Bloodycobbler - Thought his no BS post about scum reading rsoultin/iamp came from a townie perspective that I disagree with
rsoultin - Kinda meta analysis of tone, meh
Tumblewood - Had one early post on MeapZ before it became the cool thing to do. Agreed with his post
Scummy
Conversion - subpar entry followed by not a whole lot. Kind of feels like he doesn't know where to go next
Meapak - Posted a lot of early fluff that felt unnecessary, but our scum reads align on conv/LS so I reserve the right to be wrong
Acrofales - his one post was bitching about length and pages. Super easy entry without follow up that doesn't provide any information
LS - He's definitely posted more than a few times but it's felt very targeted towards a few "chummy" people like Damdred.
Jocmcplop - Was passive on a couple scum reads, throwing them out and seeing whether they'd stick.
Everyone else is floating somewhere in the middle. I'm gonna continue to catch up on the game, will be in and out for a few more hours
^ Soft on everyone, early in the game yet, but this is one of the few read posts we get from DF. On March 03 2019 11:24 darthfoley wrote:Show nested quote +On March 02 2019 23:59 rsoultin wrote:On March 02 2019 23:54 Conversion wrote:On March 02 2019 23:21 Grackaroni wrote:
I feel confident in this so far:
Vivax
Rayn
Jockmcplop
I think that Rayn is reading MZ's posts wrong but I believe that he's actually trying to reason out MZ's motivations for the posts that he makes. I don't think MZ's posts have been scummy.
I think Vivax's posts are very very likely to come from town Vivax.
There is one person that I have a gut feeling is scum but it's not worth getting into yet and I want to see more posts. is that me? what's the point of hiding the name? On March 02 2019 21:26 rsoultin wrote:On March 02 2019 21:22 Vivax wrote:On March 02 2019 21:11 rsoultin wrote:On March 02 2019 21:02 Vivax wrote:On March 02 2019 20:54 raynpelikoneet wrote:On March 02 2019 20:51 Vivax wrote:
@ Rayn
MZ said explicitly that he's accepting convs scum claim as a joke, but he wanted to know why he put in those names anyway.
Why is that a reason for you to question his motives?
And why does Conversion instantly get on the defensive about it when MZ said it isn't a reason to scumread him? Read again, MZ never said Conversion isn't mafia. He said quite the opposite, and i understood perfectly what Conversion was pushing him about. That being said i think that particular answer later on where he explains his stance on Conversion can come easily come from either town or scum, which is why i dropped the conversation about it. MZ was poking him about it as he said himself and that's how I was reading the entire thing. It's just you and conversion that seemingly are construing it as a scumread. riddle me this: if you believe me to be mafia, in what world would my first post in a rather dull thread be exposing any of my teammates? if you were to believe I was mafia, as a townie you wouldn't care about my list as you'd have to believe I'm playing against mafia win condition by unnecessarily exposing my teammates for a joke post that wasn't even funny
if you believe I am town, then the order doesn't matter cause I'm just making a dumb joke And this quote from Conversion isn't something a townie would ever write. "Hey I made a joke post about me being mafia. Let me explain why if it weren't a joke post, it wouldn't make me mafia" Okay, you can be in my non-lynch pile. This feels like a vivaxy thing to focus on though I can't say I read his post the same way you do. I'd actually call his post a potential strawman argument. "Why did you pick those names?" "Why do you care why I picked those names? It's a joke."I agree with MP that names come from somewhere, joke or not -shrugs- That's what I'd rather expect from a townie making a joke. And not try to use your joke post in an argumentation for you not being mafia. Screaming agreement with you there. It's just I don't read the intention behind Conversion's posting as trying to make an argument that makes him not mafia? And since neither of us are him I don't know how we can know his intent for sure :/ ok this is cool, but if you're in agreement with Vivax, do you still want to lynch Chezinu over me? your trail is kind of soft here, unlike Vivax who is hard for "Conversion is mafia" On March 02 2019 21:59 Trfel wrote:I actually kinda want to lynch sicklucker. He's currently contributed almost no reads (if I recall correctly, dislike of Acrofales and a town-to-meh read on rsoultin). Yet he took the time to defend himself verbosely from the slightest suspicion of rsoultin, which feels highly overdefensive, but his argument was defending his townread of rsoultin while his read, just previously posted, seemed far less committed: On March 02 2019 17:08 sicklucker wrote:
rsoultin is town dawg. maybe. na. maybe. na Does that make sense? It doesn't look like he's trying to find mafia, just trying to exist. There's a ton of people doing this in my perspective, so could you go a little deeper in explaining why you picked sicklucker? Still pushing for a Chez lynch. I'm in agreement with Vivax in theory that someone using that type of joke post to say they're town is scummy. And disagree that's what you were doing. Don't have enough to go on to have a strong read on you. I don't understand why we would ever lynch Chez in a game with lots of vigi KP. He's always this RP NAI character to me and wasting a lynch on someone that could easily be shot just seems wasteful tbh. There have been lots of people who have been more scummy than chez imo On March 04 2019 08:05 darthfoley wrote:Show nested quote +On March 04 2019 04:10 Jockmcplop wrote:
Just catching up now a couple of things are eye catching immediately.
I'd like to know what fecalfeast would do as mayor, specifically.
The only thing palmar has actually committed to is killing sent and I don't see the 'anti town' reasoning as particularly strong. It was only based off of a post or two.
Iamp is suspicious to me. He's posting alot of short, meaningless posts and is pointing out that he's 'obviously town' (if its obvious it doesn't need pointing out).
Oats is weird. I don't know if its just that he's fishing for info by making obviously wrong reads or trying to wind everyone up a bit.
Some of his comments are very flamey with the whole 'triggered' thing. Seems like he's trying to obliquely control the conversation and then when everyone starts arguing he disappears.
Townreads at the moment:
LS
Rsoultin
Acrofales
HF
Why are you townreading LS and Acrofales? On March 04 2019 08:10 darthfoley wrote:
Have no idea why town!LS would "rage" with some soft accusations. Hell, this game hasn't even turned toxic yet. Super meh On March 04 2019 08:25 darthfoley wrote:Interested on MeapZiph's take on iamp after the last 30 pages. @Meap are you still seeing red? Show nested quote +On March 03 2019 16:00 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On March 03 2019 15:50 Chezinu wrote:On March 03 2019 15:42 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On March 03 2019 15:35 Chezinu wrote:On March 03 2019 15:19 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On March 03 2019 15:14 Chezinu wrote:On March 03 2019 07:58 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:On March 03 2019 07:56 Grackaroni wrote:On March 03 2019 07:55 Acrofales wrote:
[quote]
I've had it with you being even more useless than Oats.
##vote Grackaroni You just don't have the patience to wait until 11:11 PM EST I don't understand why you don't post now. You're very obviously reading along with the thread. Meapak_Ziphh!!!! COLOR ME THIS!!! WHAT COLOR AM I?!??!??! + Show Spoiler +After your response, I am going to unleash analysis based on your response... so type your words wisely.. or speech to text your words wisely if that's how you rolls... or role... Brown Chez, always brown. A wise choice. Well you see. I didn't quite like your coloring skills earlier. You paint my greens and blues red!!! If you said I was red, then you would explain your coloring skills to assume I'm wrong on my reads.. If you went green, then you would insult my own coloring skills. With brown, you have passed. Ahh Chez, I may not be as active as I once was but I learned many years ago not to paint you red or green. You are brown and embody it every game. I'm saddened to know that we disagree on the colors of others though. I feel comfortable with some of what I've colored but others I am not so sure of. Who in particular do you you think I've gotten wrong so far? The iamp and HF. Thought you were dissing me It's gonna be hard to get me to budge on iamp, his level of effort while still being semi active in the thread just smells like someone who is trying to active lurk his way into escaping attention. He's a solid red for me right now. I have HF as green, mostly because I thought the way he came after me during the whole conversion discussion was from a townie mindset. And he brought up some good points about Oats which I hadn't fully considered until he mentioned it. Do you color him red? On March 05 2019 06:43 darthfoley wrote:Show nested quote +On March 05 2019 06:38 Holyflare wrote:
Palmar (11): Palmar, Ticktock, Meapak_Zipphh, Acrofales, Vivax, WaveofShadow, Grackaroni, Conversion, Alakaslam, Trfel, Blazinghand
How has this guy got 11 people voting for him when his sole policy is only to kill Sentinel who doesn't even look bad?
Almost the entirety, if not THE entirety of this wagon is the sketchiest people in this game. It's even growing! I don't think Vivax or TT are sketch but yea, there are some questionable names on that wagon. Why isn't Palmar pushing for a Mocsta mayor lynch considering he grilled him for like 3 pages over stuff? I guess I can understand why not Conversion considering Conversion is a leading wagon, but the fact that Palmar has been around but hasn't backed off the Sentinel idea is bonkers. We should be voting HF or Iamp as mayor imo On March 05 2019 08:47 darthfoley wrote:
I don’t think Trfel reacts like this if he’s mafia before deadline. He’s trying to be heard and sounds genuinely offended that people aren’t interacting with him.
I would think he would try and throw shade on anyone at this point but he isn’t
So, to contrast these, we've got ExO_ who at least comes in with a strong opinion and offers some reasoning for it. On the other hand, we've got DF who comes in all the time with some variant of, asking where thread sentiment is heading, wondering out loud why things are happening without directly addressing the person he's wondering about, or making very non-committal posts that don't actually go anywhere. There's a few instances of some variation on, "There's lots of scummy people we should look at/vig/whatever", that don't actually delve into the reads. This looks like posts meant to blend, since town can read them and go, "Yeah, there are lots of scummy people!".
Now DF is looking around for 'scum' and being more stronger with the reads, but we think that's only because of the pressure on him. Given the amount of flailing, it doesn't feel like town trying to find a real scum case to avoid mislynch.
Breaking character for a second:
I'm not considering the hospital stuff at all, same thing as for Onegu. My reads are based on what they've said during the game. Using external-from-the-game activity or life information to push cases is something I've always hated, to the point that I tried to make it a bannable offence circa 2012-2013 a little before I stopped playing.
I'm taking everyone at their word for when they say real life stuff comes up, and if they want to abuse that, they're just someone I won't want to play with in the future, but I'll judge that after the game, not during.
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On March 17 2019 00:34 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2019 00:22 Rels wrote:
we need to consolidate though at some point. Acro, do I have no chance of convincing you to vote Onegu? Nope. I'm with you that he's probably scum, but at this point we just ignore him and find his scumbuddies. If he flips 3p we lose, and there is a real risk his 3p claim is real. A survivor in a 35-player game is totally possible. If we had killed 3 or 4 scummers and were having a terrible time finding their friends, I'd say lynch him to be sure. But we have gotten a single scummer and no associations from it. So it's really no need to lynch a possible 3p right now.
Alright.
##Vote Oatsmaster
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The redeeming factor of darthfoley is this hilarious (unintended?) pun about mocsta's claim:
On March 15 2019 22:29 darthfoley wrote:
Mocsta pushing me saying I have zero redeeming factors after calling my filter “fine, logical and makes sense” the whole game???
You’re really trying to lynch me in LYLO for being wrong one more time than most of the town? You keep saying I have muppet votes but I don’t know what that means.
I thought you were claiming parody cop but you hadn’t actually checked me. Now you’re implying you DID check me. If you’re actually claiming to have checked me and still claiming a red check then you’re scum.
Pull your head outta your buttcheeks if you’re actually cop
Well done 
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On March 17 2019 00:36 Acrofales wrote:Of course... If Onegu refuses to play ball we can just declare MAD if he's 3p, and go for the onegu=scum lynch a bit earlier than anticipated.
Totally willing to play ball! Pandian threatened to lynch me if I didnt vote with him. As long as you promise to protect me from me I will sheep you.
Also I made the best damn joke in this thread and no comment... You all suck.
Rels is scum. Not giving a reason for now because I dont need to.
LS scum because he is.
Pandain is scum if it is true he didnt read before shooting HF like mocsta said.
##Unvote
Tell me where to park my vote.
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Oops lol, parity*
I promise I knew it!
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Well I going to take a nap since I still feeling tired will finish Mocsta's video after my nap.
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I am watching Mocsta's video and will catch up with the thread after.
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Mocsta's Pandain piece in the beginning of this video is a great start and I obviously agree with it.
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We've got Professor Acrofales on the line. Please stay tuned as we conduct an interval with this esteemed criminologist into the merits of the darthfoley/Oatsmaster cases:
On March 17 2019 00:29 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2019 00:01 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Before we get into the show, we are paging Professor Acrofales, paging Professor Acrofales.
If you're still here, we would like to know your thoughts on one 'darthfoley'. We consider him the strongest alternate lynch to Oats that we can rally town behind today. Why are you looking at an alternative wagon? What do you think of Oats?
We had this to say about Oats in the last cycle:
+ Show Spoiler [From the Dead Zone Show Archives] +On March 14 2019 15:50 Mr. Wiggles wrote:Concerned parent Grackaroni calls in with the following: Show nested quote +On March 14 2019 12:15 Grackaroni wrote:
Hello Mr. Wiggles.
Long time listener, first time caller.
My issue with your program is that it focuses heavily on night actions and tube socks, which makes for somewhat dull listening in my evening hours. Frequently questions are explored in great detail that are of little value. I fear that your sock fetish frequently distracts from more engaging topics.
Could you give me some of your thoughts on the following players:
Oatsmaster
Rels
Jockmcplop
Mocsta snip...Oatsmaster:Null to scum read, similar strength to Jock. Looking through the filter was pretty hard. There's lots of random commentary and questions that don't seem to accomplish much or go anywhere. Lots of their scum reads come on hard seem to drop pretty soon thereafter. Reads a lot like Oats is throwing crap at the wall and looking for what might stick. Maybe that's a good way to look for reactions pretty early in the game, but coming in to this stage, it doesn't really add too much. I'm not familiar with meta any more, so maybe this is Oats' normal play? Overall, I'd contrast Oats' play to Mocsta's where the latter's shows a more clear progression in the reads compared to Oats, even if they similarly try to push their own reads regardless of town sentiment. Mocsta's reads a lot more like town trying to scumhunt compared to Oats.
Your case has done a lot to build on that read, and we think it's pretty strong. Your point about lots of throwaway content meshes well with what we found scummy. I'm not sure how convincing the BC association is in isolation to other scum flips, but the flip-flop around voting off-wagon is a great point.
The stuff around the rsoultin and TS interaction is also good. Oats definitely backs off hard when the pressure starts to build.
On the other hand, your host has a strong gut read on DF and dives into his filter only serve to reinforce it. We posted some more rationale up above contrasting DF to other lurkers like ExO_.
Do you disagree that DF is scum? A red flip on DF or Oats would provide more association against the other one.
Your host may have a tendency to tunnel into what they consider strong reads, but we're probably in a do-or-die situation, so we need to know if our town reads think we're on the wrong track here. We've backed off TS for the day since a lot of people aren't seeing it anymore, and we don't want last minute shenanigans to be available to scum over a split wagon. It's important that Liquidia commits to a lynch so we don't get screwed. The staff of the Dead Zone Show consider this to best be one of DF or Oats today.
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Deadzone host I agree with your top scum reads, I'm curious what you think about Pandain in light of what Mocsta had to say in his video?
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Ok I finished the video, very comfortable with Mocsta as town after that. Is there a part two Mocsta? It seemed like you got cut off mid thought.
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Desperate likely-mafioso Oatsmaster write in with the following nasty bit of slander:
On March 16 2019 17:16 Oatsmaster wrote:Wriggles is mafiaLets start with this post Show nested quote +On March 15 2019 11:56 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
In recent news, suspected mafia accomplice Onegu has claimed the role of 3rd Party Survivor. Your host is pleased that their read of 'not-town' turned out correct. However, there still remains the matter of determining the absolute truth in this case.
We are not sure that it made sense for Onegu to claim 3rd party at night. There's no threat of lynch at that point, and it is doubtful scum would shoot them given the general suspicion surrounding their business in the town. So, what's the point of the claim at that time? Is it because the claim had been previously planned by scum and they were nervous in wanting to post after the lynch? Time will tell. This is yet another point added to a growing pile of inconsistencies surrounding Onegu's claimed allegiance.
Now, if our listeners would indulge us as we take a trip down a line of inquiry smelling of fine wine, we can theorise as to the possible scum motivations of Onegu's claim.
From the reads stated in calls to the show, Onegu was widely regarded as being a good lynch candidate and a likely member of Liquidia's most notorious crime family. Without a doubt, the pressure would have been on today. So, claiming 3rd party at this point allows Onegu to take himself out of the pool of suspects and buy more time. Given that town is likely on the brink of failure and needs to lynch correctly several times in a row (see professor Acrofales' excellent analysis) this provides benefit to scum since town will now be looking into their weaker reads, where the chance of mislynch is higher. Given that town's reads are likely to become more accurate over time, this gives a higher chance of success for scum than if we had simply proceeded with the Onegu lynch directly.
With this being said, we are still evaluating how to handle Onegu. He is surely not a member of our town, but is he a threat? After the events of last night, we may have a sure lock on another scum candidate, so this question can probably be put on the back burner for now.
We think it may be in our best interest to lynch him if we find ourselves in muddy waters in the next few cycles, but we can likely leave him be for today. he doesnt really entertain the idea that Onegu is mafia fakeclaiming 3p seriously, instead wanting to take the claim at face value but like he isnt suspicious at all. Instead, its a really long part of fluff that basically says "meh hes probably survivor for no reason and I dont want to lynch him today" scummy
Your host does seriously entertain that Onegu can be scum, which is why the bulk of the above transcript is devoted to the idea that the claim doesn't make much sense for a real 3P and that there is definite scum motivation to make that claim. We think he's more likely scum than survivor, but on the chance he is survivor, we'd rather not give scum essentially a free round of night kills.
Given Professor Acrofales' analysis, we need to lynch into scum multiple times with no mislynches. We'd rather not take the chance on Onegu when we believe there are other scum to lynch who we feel just as strongly on. That's the whole point about if our reads aren't great coming in to the second or third scum lynch we can kill him then, since the expected value works out.
Show nested quote +On March 15 2019 12:02 Mr. Wiggles wrote:Suspected criminal mastermind Oatsmaster calls in with the following question: On March 15 2019 11:43 Oatsmaster wrote:On March 15 2019 11:41 darthfoley wrote:On March 15 2019 11:31 LightningStrike wrote:
Moscta it does matter only because if it's a red check we just lynch them today and if they not well you get the picture but I assuming a red check because you going to just park your vote there.
##Vote: Darthfoley Lol he didn't vote me because he redchecked me. He didn't even check me. He's voted me because I haven't given a shit about this game and been wrong one more time than he has (I wasn't on the Sent wagon). Lynching me in LYLO for silly reasons would however, cap off this shit show of a town Why is it lylo? We would direct their attention to the two recent journal articles published by esteemed citizen Professor Acrofales in the Liquidia Journal of Criminology: On March 14 2019 17:54 Acrofales wrote:
Tomorrow there's going to be 15 ppl alive if the KP stays the same. Pretty sure if you don't lynch scum, it's over:
Formula 1: #scum/2 rounded up (traitor doesn't count)
10 town vs 5 scum
Lynch scum, kill 2 town: 8v4
Lynch scum, kill 2 town: 6v3
Lynch scum, kill 1 town: 5v2
Breathing space: town bought themselves a final mislynch.
If you lynch town:
Lynch town, kill 3 town: 6v5
Lynch scum, kill 2 town: 4v4 and it's over.
So HAVE TO kill 3 scum in a row.
Formula 2: flat 3 KP, unknown number of mafia:
15-X vs X
Lynch scum, kill 3 town: 12 - X vs X - 1.
Lynch scum, kill 3 town: 9 - X vs X - 2.
Lynch scum, kill 3 town: 6 - X vs X - 3.
Lunch scum, kill 3 town??? 3- X vs X - 4.
This obviously cannot continue and the last scum must be dead here, so X <= 4 in this scenario.
X < 4 would make the scumread too small for the game, IMHO. So balance says that scum should be exactly 4 here, and to win, town needs to kill all scum in a row, starting now.
So what I'll do tonight is give you a list of the 4 scummiest shits and you lynch them in order. If KP stays 3, then you are in the bottom scenario and every day is lylo. If you're in the top scenario, you can take a brief breath after killing the three scummers.
Obviously I'm expecting to be dead tomorrow, but maybe there's a backup medic. Who knows. On March 15 2019 03:41 Acrofales wrote:Time for setup speculation part 2, now with 3p! I looked over onegu's filter and most of my reasons for scumreading him is his utter disinterest in finding scum. That is totally explainable as 3p. However, it's also totally explainable as scum. So here goes: If onegu is scum, see my previous post, and you just gotta kill him. If onegu is a survivor: Formula 1, nothing changes, except that instead of it being 5v2 after lynching 3 scum, its 4v2v1. Imho, always lynch onegu at this point, unless you caught a 4th scummer redhanded doing scummy-as-fuck stuff. Otherwise, you can't distinguish between 5v2 and 4v2v1, and lynching town in the 4v2v1 situation means town loses. Lynching the claimed 3p is a "safe play". He is definitely not town, as town doesn't claim 3p unless they want to lose the game, and he might just be scum trying to escape. Note that it isn't safe to lynch onegu the 3p *before* you get down to the single NK in this formula. Formula 2: Without a medic, we have already lost: 14-X vs X vs 1 11-X vs X - 1 vs 1 8-X vs X - 2 vs 1 5 - X vs X - 3 vs 1 If X = 4 this is endgame. So either FF blows up a scummer with a bomb (meaning scum are a bunch of fricking idiots) or we still have a medic floating about. In either case, if we get the medic save, it is never safe to lynch onegu the 3p. It is always necessary to lynch onegu the scum. At some point town is gonna have to decide what onegu is.
Onegu the SK. This scenario just seems really really unlikely. Non-compulsive SKs are such a broken role that I don't think we got one. Which means that *either* the SK stacked KP 3 times, for which we only have circumstantial evidence on N1, or the scumteam has only 2 KP. Neither of these scenarios seems likely at all. So I'd rule out this scenario. Moreover, I actually checked the OP, and it says: The town's win condition:
The town wins when all mafia are eliminated. This seems pretty clearcut. There is no malevolent 3p in the game, or this wincon wouldn't work. So onegu is not an SK. Your hosts at the Dead Zone Show tend to agree with this analysis, and at least the general sentiment that we must try our hardest to lynch into scum. There should be no more talk of throw-away lynches to thin lurkers or bad players at this point. waste of time post
If that post that took a minute to write was a waste of time, what does that make your question? Please read the thread in the future, and you won't need to waste so much of other people's time. =/
Show nested quote +On March 15 2019 12:20 Mr. Wiggles wrote:Ever-faithful listener and #1 Dead Zone Show fan LightningStrike calls in with the following question: On March 15 2019 11:40 LightningStrike wrote:
Dear Faithful host:
What you make of Moscta's claim and actions from today?
Sincerely, LS We're still trying to wrap our heads around the claim. We agree on the general scumminess of darthfoley and will be voting there as we figure out the rest of the day. We'll be interested in seeing any letter addressed from Professor Acrofales regarding the target of today's lynch. During the night cycle he argued strongly that we need to lynch Oatsmaster, and we'd like to see some more reasoning for that target compared to df. Now for the claim itself, we're not sure whether we believe it. There was some weirdness, a so-called 'ploy', around last night's check. Similarly, the timing of the claim was odd. Why post a claim with almost the full night ahead so that scum can decide whether to shoot you? mocsta was around for just before the flips, so that would have been the more logical time for the claim to come out. The scum motivation for this would be if we're in a do or die situation like the Professor pointed out, and df is town. This would cement a scum victory if we followed the claimed check blindly. On the other hand, we have been reading mocsta as town, and historically they have acted quite compulsively. From that perspective, your hosts are pondering whether a town mocsta would try to fake claim to ensure they got the lynch they wanted. We haven't followed their past career closely enough to know if this is something they would do, but it does seem possible. The alternative is that we're over-thinking this and mocsta really does moonlight as a private eye, but overall the claim needs to be clarified since something smells off to us here at the show. okay so this post, right before this wriggles seems to "know" that df is mafia with a lot of confidence Show nested quote +On March 15 2019 12:03 Mr. Wiggles wrote:Though, on reflection, is that a slip from our red friend DarthFoley? right so like its a joke but that comes from no question at all that he thinks DF is mafia because of the red check from mocsta In the post analyzing mocsta, he states that the claim is off but he doesnt commit to a read on mocsta because of that and that seems to me like a lot of hedging kinda seeing where the town read him and then commit to that read. Like he basically says "shrug, i dunno its weird, dont look at me i dont know". Again, another post that looks good but says absolutely nothing. Im just gonna stop here for now, but throughout his filter, theres a lack of like interest to actually get the people he thinks is scum lynched. He kinda waffles a bit, plays a bit of mentor advice role but legitimately just hides in the shadows. His show is just a way to fluff up his posts, and if you notice, for the most part he doesnt actually progress anything in his show. Its basically him answering some questions and peacing out. So he is putting his opinion in the thread but not actually using it for any reason whatsoever to look townie. Theres a reason Palmar wanted him to die. this is the lynch for today ##vote wriggles
We have a town read on mocsta, which if you don't know that seems to go back to not actually following the show very closely. This read was made before the cop claim came out. That post details that despite the claim, we still thought mocsta was a member of our fair town. There could be mafia motivation to the claim, but based on our earlier read and the inconsistencies in the claim, we thought it was some sort of ploy to get people behind a DF lynch.
As for the last point, outside of weekends we have only a few hours to actively post in the evening. This also happens to be when a lot of people are away or asleep, thus the title of the show. We're playing the game by trying to advance reads, comment on current events, and basically be an open book to any question we're asked in our fan mail. If we don't look like we're pushing lynches that's because we're not, in the sense that we can't be around to spam "lynch X" for the four hours before the lynch. If people don't read the thread or want to remember what was written further back than a few hours ago, we can't really do anything about that.
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Ex-employee Meapak_Ziphh calls in with the following question:
On March 17 2019 01:02 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
Deadzone host I agree with your top scum reads, I'm curious what you think about Pandain in light of what Mocsta had to say in his video?
Pandain's looking worse to me after their posting in this cycle. The case on mocsta is based pretty much entirely on the claim:
On March 16 2019 04:46 Pandain wrote: Mocsta is almost certainly bullshiting about his claim, making him almost certainly mafia Nothing about his claim makes sense. 1. He claimed parity cop last night already, without revealing his checks. If he was really cop and was afraid to get shot, he almost certainly would have revealed his checks right before day. Not doing this shows he either isn't afraid of getting shot, or he doesn't care about revealing his information, neither of which makes sense if he's actually cop. 2. None of his checks make sense. Let's see who he says a. Koshi night one - Makes no sense. Mocsta had a strong town read on Koshi. Why would you check someone you have a town read on, especially when they were not posting at all like Koshi night one? + Show Spoiler + On March 06 2019 08:30 Mocsta wrote:Show nested quote +On March 06 2019 02:37 Vivax wrote:
Anyway, here's my 100% scummers in case I die.
Iamp, Oats, Marv, Sentinel.
My 50 % scummers. Half of those are townies.
rsoultin, Wiggles, Pandain, ExO, BH, TS
Rayn not mafia cause can't be mafia with iamp in 9/10 cases.
HF just decided to be a selfish dumbass and shit up the game and hurt my feelings, but alas, he's town by PoE. He literally doesn't give a shit about being townread when town. All he cares about is that people are wrong about him no matter his alignment so he can pat himself on the back. I absolutely agree on that. You/acro/koshi/jock/HF are pretty much my only town reads. Note this is 30 minutes before day 2, so as recent that night as you can get - Same deal here, Mocsta thought he was town. See spoilers below. Not only that, Mocsta was scumreading people like Exo and Oats. Like the last night, this filter makes no sense. I will also say this is the "lazy" choice for a fakeclaim check night two, as I bet with all the drama most people would have checked him if not the night before. However based on Mocsta's filter? No way. + Show Spoiler + On March 07 2019 20:20 Mocsta wrote:Show nested quote +On March 07 2019 20:14 Holyflare wrote:
I don't understand why anyone even thinks I'm mafia that would trade 1 for 1 with Palmar for absolutely no reason at all.
Then they make up some bs like they don't even remember how the d1 vote count went. There was no real vote count for 20 minutes after deadline. they are voting you because you are an internet narcissist. You have 10% of the page count for what? Congrats, you won the last mayor, and in my opinion wrecked town atmosphere. I dont think you are scum, I actually thought you were pretty sincere before you when you said you were burnt out. Makes sense, its a bucket load of effort to maintain. Acro has been putting it in equally too you know. I really think you are both town. I really want damdred lynched. or someone from the lurker pool Or vivax, i dont care at this point. I invested most of my energy into Ace and for what. fuckn 3P. sigh. On March 08 2019 11:02 Mocsta wrote:Show nested quote +On March 08 2019 07:57 WaveofShadow wrote:
Hf I feel like so much of what you've done is based on whether people are defending you or what their reads of the unflipped BH are. yep and thats what most townies do under pressure focus on anything to do with them. - Alright, maybe, in that he was at least scumming him before. However, it is also convenient that they just all happen to be dead as well. And there's no way town had three cops, that's way way way too imbalanced. Can you imagine if the cops did not die day 1? This game would have been over from long before. However, the final nail in the coffin is that Mocsta rescinded his vote on DF. We are in a possible lylo situation right now depending on KP and how many mafia there are. Why would a parity cop who just checked someone who is red ever in a million years not keep pushing for his red check? Makes absolutely no sense if he's telling the truth. If we actually are in a lylo situation, it would be a perfect time for mafia to fake claim because they just need to get one person lynched. The whole circumstances surrounding Mocsta are super sketchy, shady, and scummy, and he's practically mafia in my book now. These circumstances also makes darthfoley a strong town in my book. If he is town, I'm not surprised that mafia would fakeclaim check him considering there is tons of suspicion on him. In short, he's contradictory, his "checks" don't make sense, and he isn't playing like someone who just checked scum.
This case came out long after I had made my own analysis on mocsta that came to the conclusion that he was town and fake-claiming as some sort of ploy or for laughs, and after several others had already called out the claim as well.
Pandain's 'final nail' is the thing that should throw off his entire case. As a real cop, or a scum fake claiming cop, mocsta would have to be 100% committed to the read on DF and push for a DF lynch. That mocsta backed off showed that the claim was obviously bogus. From this perspective the case reads as some kind of weird tunnel that started with the conclusion that mocsta was scum and then tried to make its way there via the claim.
This is also bad:
On March 16 2019 04:56 Pandain wrote:
Because he revealed his checks I might be persuaded to vote onegu but it 100% should not be oats based on how easily mocsta switched
Needs to be between mocsta and onegu
As we explained on the last episode of the Dead Zone Show, there's not a strong reason to lynch Onegu today, unless we have no other strong scum reads. Assuming Onegu is 3P and not scum for the moment, this post is asking us to lynch into either likely town or 3P. Pretty nice lynch for mafia, don't you think listeners?
Given the very weird DF green read based on mocsta's fake claim, and the push to get people off of Oats, your host thinks that Pandain looks like a great lynch after one of them flips red. For now the associations aren't confirmed, but assuming they're there based on our current reads, Pandain's play today looks like scum trying to seal the deal by pushing for a mislynch.
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An addendum to our last transmission:
On March 17 2019 01:02 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
Deadzone host I agree with your top scum reads, I'm curious what you think about Pandain in light of what Mocsta had to say in his video?
What are the rough timestamps for the Pandain part? I was listening to it in the background, and heard some of it, but would like to re-listen more closely to give a better answer about the video in particular.
The stuff around the shot and sent lynch had us town reading Pandain in the last cycle, but the posts today are quickly destroying our confidence.
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I am back I finished the video. Lynching lurkers I generally don't agree to do Day 1 but we still got plenty of lurkers here in the game. Oats stuff is alright but I rather lynch Onegu honestly simply because I don't believe his claim and think he's scum.
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Your host will be taking a breakfast/brunch break, but will be back in an hour or two.
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Wiggles the Pandain stuff starts around 4 minutes in
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On March 16 2019 12:04 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
Ok i finally made it home. I think mocstas claim is wayyy too sloppy to be scum. I don't think this clears DF. I believe onegu's claim and I also believe we're at lylo so I'm not real impressed with the people who are pushing him rn.
Why do you believe Onegu's claim?
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On March 17 2019 02:03 Rels wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2019 12:04 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
Ok i finally made it home. I think mocstas claim is wayyy too sloppy to be scum. I don't think this clears DF. I believe onegu's claim and I also believe we're at lylo so I'm not real impressed with the people who are pushing him rn. Why do you believe Onegu's claim?
Mostly because of his breadcrumb. I know that's not the strongest reasoning in the world but on a potential lylo lynch I'd rather not take chances. I also think his play is consistent with a survivor type role.
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On March 17 2019 02:06 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2019 02:03 Rels wrote:On March 16 2019 12:04 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
Ok i finally made it home. I think mocstas claim is wayyy too sloppy to be scum. I don't think this clears DF. I believe onegu's claim and I also believe we're at lylo so I'm not real impressed with the people who are pushing him rn. Why do you believe Onegu's claim? Mostly because of his breadcrumb. I know that's not the strongest reasoning in the world but on a potential lylo lynch I'd rather not take chances. I also think his play is consistent with a survivor type role.
His breadcrumb was made only a day and a half before the claim, just after Acro started attacking him though.
When you say his play is consistent with survivor, are you talking about before or after his claim?
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EPT![[image loading]](https://thumbs.gfycat.com/TimelyNiftyIsabellinewheatear-size_restricted.gif)
