EPTEnd of the World Party Mafia - Page 417
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Rels
France13467 Posts
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LightningStrike
United States14276 Posts
##Vote: Darthfoley | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
We'll be opening the line up right away to our dedicated callers; for the first time in Dead Zone Show history we find our fan mail bag empty. We hope you enjoy the program. + Show Spoiler + | ||
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LightningStrike
United States14276 Posts
What you make of Moscta's claim and actions from today? Sincerely, LS | ||
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darthfoley
United States8001 Posts
On March 15 2019 11:31 LightningStrike wrote: Moscta it does matter only because if it's a red check we just lynch them today and if they not well you get the picture but I assuming a red check because you going to just park your vote there. ##Vote: Darthfoley Lol he didn't vote me because he redchecked me. He didn't even check me. He's voted me because I haven't given a shit about this game and been wrong one more time than he has (I wasn't on the Sent wagon). Lynching me in LYLO for silly reasons would however, cap off this shit show of a town | ||
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LightningStrike
United States14276 Posts
On March 15 2019 11:41 darthfoley wrote: Lol he didn't vote me because he redchecked me. He didn't even check me. He's voted me because I haven't given a shit about this game and been wrong one more time than he has (I wasn't on the Sent wagon). Lynching me in LYLO for silly reasons would however, cap off this shit show of a town He claimed he checked you though and he said he would just park his vote on you how do you feel about that? | ||
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Oatsmaster
United States16627 Posts
On March 15 2019 11:41 darthfoley wrote: Lol he didn't vote me because he redchecked me. He didn't even check me. He's voted me because I haven't given a shit about this game and been wrong one more time than he has (I wasn't on the Sent wagon). Lynching me in LYLO for silly reasons would however, cap off this shit show of a town Why is it lylo? | ||
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Alakaslam
United States17322 Posts
Why am i drawing your attention to this? | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
We are not sure that it made sense for Onegu to claim 3rd party at night. There's no threat of lynch at that point, and it is doubtful scum would shoot them given the general suspicion surrounding their business in the town. So, what's the point of the claim at that time? Is it because the claim had been previously planned by scum and they were nervous in wanting to post after the lynch? Time will tell. This is yet another point added to a growing pile of inconsistencies surrounding Onegu's claimed allegiance. Now, if our listeners would indulge us as we take a trip down a line of inquiry smelling of fine wine, we can theorise as to the possible scum motivations of Onegu's claim. From the reads stated in calls to the show, Onegu was widely regarded as being a good lynch candidate and a likely member of Liquidia's most notorious crime family. Without a doubt, the pressure would have been on today. So, claiming 3rd party at this point allows Onegu to take himself out of the pool of suspects and buy more time. Given that town is likely on the brink of failure and needs to lynch correctly several times in a row (see professor Acrofales' excellent analysis) this provides benefit to scum since town will now be looking into their weaker reads, where the chance of mislynch is higher. Given that town's reads are likely to become more accurate over time, this gives a higher chance of success for scum than if we had simply proceeded with the Onegu lynch directly. With this being said, we are still evaluating how to handle Onegu. He is surely not a member of our town, but is he a threat? After the events of last night, we may have a sure lock on another scum candidate, so this question can probably be put on the back burner for now. We think it may be in our best interest to lynch him if we find ourselves in muddy waters in the next few cycles, but we can likely leave him be for today. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
We would direct their attention to the two recent journal articles published by esteemed citizen Professor Acrofales in the Liquidia Journal of Criminology: On March 14 2019 17:54 Acrofales wrote: Tomorrow there's going to be 15 ppl alive if the KP stays the same. Pretty sure if you don't lynch scum, it's over: Formula 1: #scum/2 rounded up (traitor doesn't count) 10 town vs 5 scum Lynch scum, kill 2 town: 8v4 Lynch scum, kill 2 town: 6v3 Lynch scum, kill 1 town: 5v2 Breathing space: town bought themselves a final mislynch. If you lynch town: Lynch town, kill 3 town: 6v5 Lynch scum, kill 2 town: 4v4 and it's over. So HAVE TO kill 3 scum in a row. Formula 2: flat 3 KP, unknown number of mafia: 15-X vs X Lynch scum, kill 3 town: 12 - X vs X - 1. Lynch scum, kill 3 town: 9 - X vs X - 2. Lynch scum, kill 3 town: 6 - X vs X - 3. Lunch scum, kill 3 town??? 3- X vs X - 4. This obviously cannot continue and the last scum must be dead here, so X <= 4 in this scenario. X < 4 would make the scumread too small for the game, IMHO. So balance says that scum should be exactly 4 here, and to win, town needs to kill all scum in a row, starting now. So what I'll do tonight is give you a list of the 4 scummiest shits and you lynch them in order. If KP stays 3, then you are in the bottom scenario and every day is lylo. If you're in the top scenario, you can take a brief breath after killing the three scummers. Obviously I'm expecting to be dead tomorrow, but maybe there's a backup medic. Who knows. On March 15 2019 03:41 Acrofales wrote: Time for setup speculation part 2, now with 3p! I looked over onegu's filter and most of my reasons for scumreading him is his utter disinterest in finding scum. That is totally explainable as 3p. However, it's also totally explainable as scum. So here goes: If onegu is scum, see my previous post, and you just gotta kill him. If onegu is a survivor: Formula 1, nothing changes, except that instead of it being 5v2 after lynching 3 scum, its 4v2v1. Imho, always lynch onegu at this point, unless you caught a 4th scummer redhanded doing scummy-as-fuck stuff. Otherwise, you can't distinguish between 5v2 and 4v2v1, and lynching town in the 4v2v1 situation means town loses. Lynching the claimed 3p is a "safe play". He is definitely not town, as town doesn't claim 3p unless they want to lose the game, and he might just be scum trying to escape. Note that it isn't safe to lynch onegu the 3p *before* you get down to the single NK in this formula. Formula 2: Without a medic, we have already lost: 14-X vs X vs 1 11-X vs X - 1 vs 1 8-X vs X - 2 vs 1 5 - X vs X - 3 vs 1 If X = 4 this is endgame. So either FF blows up a scummer with a bomb (meaning scum are a bunch of fricking idiots) or we still have a medic floating about. In either case, if we get the medic save, it is never safe to lynch onegu the 3p. It is always necessary to lynch onegu the scum. At some point town is gonna have to decide what onegu is. Onegu the SK. This scenario just seems really really unlikely. Non-compulsive SKs are such a broken role that I don't think we got one. Which means that *either* the SK stacked KP 3 times, for which we only have circumstantial evidence on N1, or the scumteam has only 2 KP. Neither of these scenarios seems likely at all. So I'd rule out this scenario. Moreover, I actually checked the OP, and it says: The town's win condition: The town wins when all mafia are eliminated. This seems pretty clearcut. There is no malevolent 3p in the game, or this wincon wouldn't work. So onegu is not an SK. Your hosts at the Dead Zone Show tend to agree with this analysis, and at least the general sentiment that we must try our hardest to lynch into scum. There should be no more talk of throw-away lynches to thin lurkers or bad players at this point. | ||
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darthfoley
United States8001 Posts
Didn’t Afro do some analysis a few pages ago showing it was? | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
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darthfoley
United States8001 Posts
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darthfoley
United States8001 Posts
On March 15 2019 12:03 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Though, on reflection, is that a slip from our red friend DarthFoley? Yes lynch me and find out | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
On March 15 2019 11:40 LightningStrike wrote: Dear Faithful host: What you make of Moscta's claim and actions from today? Sincerely, LS We're still trying to wrap our heads around the claim. We agree on the general scumminess of darthfoley and will be voting there as we figure out the rest of the day. We'll be interested in seeing any letter addressed from Professor Acrofales regarding the target of today's lynch. During the night cycle he argued strongly that we need to lynch Oatsmaster, and we'd like to see some more reasoning for that target compared to df. Now for the claim itself, we're not sure whether we believe it. There was some weirdness, a so-called 'ploy', around last night's check. Similarly, the timing of the claim was odd. Why post a claim with almost the full night ahead so that scum can decide whether to shoot you? mocsta was around for just before the flips, so that would have been the more logical time for the claim to come out. The scum motivation for this would be if we're in a do or die situation like the Professor pointed out, and df is town. This would cement a scum victory if we followed the claimed check blindly. On the other hand, we have been reading mocsta as town, and historically they have acted quite compulsively. From that perspective, your hosts are pondering whether a town mocsta would try to fake claim to ensure they got the lynch they wanted. We haven't followed their past career closely enough to know if this is something they would do, but it does seem possible. The alternative is that we're over-thinking this and mocsta really does moonlight as a private eye, but overall the claim needs to be clarified since something smells off to us here at the show. | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
![[image loading]](https://media.giphy.com/media/2b9rJsvqoqNxe/giphy.gif) | ||
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LightningStrike
United States14276 Posts
On March 15 2019 12:20 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Ever-faithful listener and #1 Dead Zone Show fan LightningStrike calls in with the following question: We're still trying to wrap our heads around the claim. We agree on the general scumminess of darthfoley and will be voting there as we figure out the rest of the day. We'll be interested in seeing any letter addressed from Professor Acrofales regarding the target of today's lynch. During the night cycle he argued strongly that we need to lynch Oatsmaster, and we'd like to see some more reasoning for that target compared to df. Now for the claim itself, we're not sure whether we believe it. There was some weirdness, a so-called 'ploy', around last night's check. Similarly, the timing of the claim was odd. Why post a claim with almost the full night ahead so that scum can decide whether to shoot you? mocsta was around for just before the flips, so that would have been the more logical time for the claim to come out. The scum motivation for this would be if we're in a do or die situation like the Professor pointed out, and df is town. This would cement a scum victory if we followed the claimed check blindly. On the other hand, we have been reading mocsta as town, and historically they have acted quite compulsively. From that perspective, your hosts are pondering whether a town mocsta would try to fake claim to ensure they got the lynch they wanted. We haven't followed their past career closely enough to know if this is something they would do, but it does seem possible. The alternative is that we're over-thinking this and mocsta really does moonlight as a private eye, but overall the claim needs to be clarified since something smells off to us here at the show. Ya I hope he clarified that what kind of check he got on DF but I assuming it's a red check. | ||
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LightningStrike
United States14276 Posts
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darthfoley
United States8001 Posts
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darthfoley
United States8001 Posts
On March 15 2019 10:01 Mocsta wrote: does it actually matter? do you see a redeeming quality? again non-muppet posts muppet votes is the most succinct distillation of DF over 430pages He would make this post if Mocsta was ever mafia | ||
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