With these results tho, nothing will change on Spain, since i expect the PSOE to finally cave in and end up supporting the PP, which will continue the EU austerity measures while sacking through corruption everything left, and pissing off more the nationalisms.
European Politico-economics QA Mega-thread - Page 488
Forum Index > General Forum |
Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action. | ||
Godwrath
Spain10091 Posts
With these results tho, nothing will change on Spain, since i expect the PSOE to finally cave in and end up supporting the PP, which will continue the EU austerity measures while sacking through corruption everything left, and pissing off more the nationalisms. | ||
RvB
Netherlands6081 Posts
| ||
Godwrath
Spain10091 Posts
You can read the program here, as i am sure our thoughts on what's possible or not may differ greatly. http://podemos.info/propuestas/?lang=en | ||
RvB
Netherlands6081 Posts
| ||
Godwrath
Spain10091 Posts
I am all ears on why it would end up being the same as syriza. | ||
warding
Portugal2394 Posts
On June 27 2016 20:41 Godwrath wrote: Well, one option has an uncertain result (atleast on my uneducated eyes), the another is certain. If we continue to vote the traditional parties, corruption won't go away, or atleast, start a process to move away from it. That's what we are seeing. I am all ears on why it would end up being the same as syriza. Parties and people don't change corruption. Institutional reform does. What are the proposed reforms by Podemos to deal with the perceived corruption? | ||
Sent.
Poland8983 Posts
| ||
Godwrath
Spain10091 Posts
On June 27 2016 21:11 warding wrote: Parties and people don't change corruption. Institutional reform does. What are the proposed reforms by Podemos to deal with the perceived corruption? Apologies for my english. - 2 terms maximum for public office. - Submitting the accounts of the parties to the electorate. - Being able to do permanent revocation of elected official - Stricter application of the incompatibility between public office and any other renumerated job (just a a sidenote, there are politicians of the PP with more than 10 jobs, while holding public office). - No maximum pension retirement after 7 years of contributions. - The same fiscal taxation for the people holding public office than for citizens. - Mechanisms to assure the fullfiment of electoral programs. - End gauging for the diputees and senators (used frequently to save imputed members of their parties). - Prohibit the accumulations of public office charges. - Abolish the electoral refund. - Implementation of a directive to check the states and their institutional structure which allows to remove institutions duplicated or unnecessary. | ||
RvB
Netherlands6081 Posts
On June 27 2016 20:41 Godwrath wrote: Well, one option has an uncertain result (atleast on my uneducated eyes), the another is certain. If we continue to vote the traditional parties, corruption won't go away, or atleast, start a process to move away from it. That's what we are seeing. I am all ears on why it would end up being the same as syriza. The same as Syriza in the sense that they both want expansionary fiscal policy. The difference is obviously that Greece required a bailout while Spain did not so they have more room. Still though with a budget deficit of 5.1% of GDP and pubpic debt of nearly 100% of GDP I don't see a lot of room for expansionary fiscal policy. Result being that they're still tied to the same economic policy as now. I agree Sent that Spain has more wiggle room. Still I doubt it is that much. The problem isn't the other governments of the eurozone but the fact bond yields in the market will rise rapidly. Bigger deficit spending will only be possible with the central bank buying the bonds which won't happen. | ||
pmh
1344 Posts
The UK's decision to leave the European Union will lead to an economic crisis more severe than what the world faced in 2008, according to legendary investor Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings. “This is going to be worse than any bear market you’ve seen in your lifetime,” he said on Yahoo Finance’s “Market Movers” program Monday. “2008 was bad because of debt. The debt all over the world is much, much higher now. Stocks in the US, for instance, have been going sideways for 18 months to 24 months. That’s called a distribution by many people. When you have distribution for a year and a half, it usually leads to bad things.” Rogers — who cofounded the Quantum Fund with George Soros in the 1970s — believes the “leave” movement’s victory last week may threaten the British union. While any negotiated deal may help assuage the market’s Brexit fears, Rogers foresees a “bad case scenario” where Scotland and Northern Ireland leave the UK and London’s clout diminishes significantly as financial institutions move towards continental Europe. “The UK already has huge international debts and it has balance of trade problems and budget problems,” he said. “The bear case is the pound disappears. England becomes Spain or Poland or Italy or something.” While he doesn’t see an immediate collapse of England’s economy, Rogers anticipates a long-term decline in the country’s prospects. “The deterioration will continue and make stocks go down a lot,” he warned. Brexit’s win will also embolden other countries to leave the EU and separatist movements to break up a few states, Rogers predicted. That could make the world to look significantly different in just a half a decade. “The EU as we know it will not exist,” he said. “The euro as we know it will not exist. Some people leave, others may join — unlikely, but they could join. There are a lot of angry people all over the world. Look at what’s happening in America." In the UK, he added, "People are making unbelievably incompetent statements but they’re very happy to be getting out [of the EU]. They’re so angry.” Rogers said he is short US stocks but is long Chinese stocks and agricultural commodities. “These are the things that might do well no matter what happens going forward,” he explained. “These are going to be perilous times. I hope I get it right.” He also expects a tougher time for the euro even relative to the British pound, as movements in other part of the European Union threaten its foundations. Rogers is long US dollars and is less negative on the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc. “There are not many sound currencies left anymore,” he said. “They’ve all been ruined by politicians.” This guy has been bearish on Europe for a few years now but this time I think he is right. We are racing towards a huge geo political,social and financial crisis. "Bigger deficit spending will only be possible with the central bank buying the bonds which won't happen." The ecb has a 1200 billion euro bond buying program active? Not sure what you mean here. Brexit will result in an extension of that program for sure. | ||
pmh
1344 Posts
Where all the anger is coming from. https://www.yahoo.com/news/global-elites-need-to-fix-what-they-broke-165925465.html?ref=gs | ||
xM(Z
Romania5258 Posts
But the real problem is more basic: fading prosperity. Voters don’t tear up the status quo when good jobs are plentiful and life is good. This only happens when too many people fall too far behind for too long. ...So the overall trend in both countries is depressed purchasing power for the typical family, combined with a high degree of inequality, which means the wealthy are capturing a larger share of national income. ...None of this is possible in today’s political climate, because compromise doesn’t happen and self-preservation is everybody’s dominant interest. Brexit, however, shows that sustaining a lousy status quo for long enough can come with rather serious costs. Maybe the global elite should start thinking about preserving the fortunes of others, for once. i recon they'll die before letting that happen not only because they see their gains were made fair and square, but also because they despise them plebs. | ||
cLutZ
United States19554 Posts
On June 27 2016 22:15 RvB wrote: The same as Syriza in the sense that they both want expansionary fiscal policy. The difference is obviously that Greece required a bailout while Spain did not so they have more room. Still though with a budget deficit of 5.1% of GDP and pubpic debt of nearly 100% of GDP I don't see a lot of room for expansionary fiscal policy. Result being that they're still tied to the same economic policy as now. I agree Sent that Spain has more wiggle room. Still I doubt it is that much. The problem isn't the other governments of the eurozone but the fact bond yields in the market will rise rapidly. Bigger deficit spending will only be possible with the central bank buying the bonds which won't happen. Spain doesn't have much wiggle room because even if they have an expansionary fiscal policy, and even if expansionary fiscal policy would work in their situation (debatable), they are part of a whole when it comes to improving the economy, and simply too small a part of a whole. No one country could stimulate the EU (or arguably the world) enough to fix what is essentially a global economic malaise. At best they would raise the living standards of the Spanish poor for a few years, at worst it could raise local prices and make them less competitive for tourism while eating up the potential temporary QOL increase. | ||
RvB
Netherlands6081 Posts
On June 28 2016 09:48 pmh wrote: Jim Rogers on Brexit: "Worse than any bear market you’ve seen in your lifetime" The UK's decision to leave the European Union will lead to an economic crisis more severe than what the world faced in 2008, according to legendary investor Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings. “This is going to be worse than any bear market you’ve seen in your lifetime,” he said on Yahoo Finance’s “Market Movers” program Monday. “2008 was bad because of debt. The debt all over the world is much, much higher now. Stocks in the US, for instance, have been going sideways for 18 months to 24 months. That’s called a distribution by many people. When you have distribution for a year and a half, it usually leads to bad things.” Rogers — who cofounded the Quantum Fund with George Soros in the 1970s — believes the “leave” movement’s victory last week may threaten the British union. While any negotiated deal may help assuage the market’s Brexit fears, Rogers foresees a “bad case scenario” where Scotland and Northern Ireland leave the UK and London’s clout diminishes significantly as financial institutions move towards continental Europe. “The UK already has huge international debts and it has balance of trade problems and budget problems,” he said. “The bear case is the pound disappears. England becomes Spain or Poland or Italy or something.” While he doesn’t see an immediate collapse of England’s economy, Rogers anticipates a long-term decline in the country’s prospects. “The deterioration will continue and make stocks go down a lot,” he warned. Brexit’s win will also embolden other countries to leave the EU and separatist movements to break up a few states, Rogers predicted. That could make the world to look significantly different in just a half a decade. “The EU as we know it will not exist,” he said. “The euro as we know it will not exist. Some people leave, others may join — unlikely, but they could join. There are a lot of angry people all over the world. Look at what’s happening in America." In the UK, he added, "People are making unbelievably incompetent statements but they’re very happy to be getting out [of the EU]. They’re so angry.” Rogers said he is short US stocks but is long Chinese stocks and agricultural commodities. “These are the things that might do well no matter what happens going forward,” he explained. “These are going to be perilous times. I hope I get it right.” He also expects a tougher time for the euro even relative to the British pound, as movements in other part of the European Union threaten its foundations. Rogers is long US dollars and is less negative on the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc. “There are not many sound currencies left anymore,” he said. “They’ve all been ruined by politicians.” This guy has been bearish on Europe for a few years now but this time I think he is right. We are racing towards a huge geo political,social and financial crisis. "Bigger deficit spending will only be possible with the central bank buying the bonds which won't happen." The ecb has a 1200 billion euro bond buying program active? Not sure what you mean here. Brexit will result in an extension of that program for sure. QE buys government debt yes. It does so in proportion to GDP. It's not like the ECB will simply fund all deficits governments make. | ||
xM(Z
Romania5258 Posts
https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/central-bank-gold-at-the-bank-of-england/ Secondly, by early 2014, the LBMA web site stated that there were only 7,500 tonnes of gold in all London vaults, i.e. ~600,000 bars, and of this total, three-quarters or 5,625 tonnes were at in Bank of England, ~ 450,000 bars, and only one-quarter or 1,875 tonnes was stored at LBMA London gold vaults excluding the Bank of England’s gold vaults. So, the entire London market including the Bank of England had lost 1,500 tonnes (120,000 bars) between 2011 and early 2014, with 375 tonnes less in the BoE and 1,125 tonnes less in the London market outside the BoE. Finally, on 15 June 2015, the LBMA stated that “There are ~500,000 bars in the London vaults, worth a total of ~US$237 billion”. This ~ 500,000 bars equates to 6,256 tonnes. (On 15th June 2015, the morning LBMA Gold Price was set at $1178.25, which would make $237 billion worth of gold equal to 201.145 million ounces, which is 6,256 tonnes). Therefore, another ~1,250 tonnes of gold (approximately 100,000 Good Delivery bars) departed from the London gold vaults compared to the early 2014 quotation of 7,500 tonnes of gold in the London vaults. | ||
pmh
1344 Posts
Don't think it will be moved,london is still the centre of the gold trade and it is relatively safe there. Curious how the markets will develop. Am still inclined to believe it will drop 25% from here within 1 month but now that brexit has been put on halt for at least 3 months,and then the usa elections coming (motivation to not let it collapse to make sure Clinton gets elected) I am not that sure. There also seems to be a construction boom in the usa in California at the moment and if that really picks up then things are starting to look more bright. And then there are the central banks off course. Summer is also a quiet period usually,so maybe not much will happen till end summer. Still I think we are in for a big drop. The interest being so low, I wonder if this is the result from the difference between the rich and the poor growing so much. Interest rates peaked around 1983, coincidently the year where inequity started to rise,after dropping for decades since wo 2. The theory behind this is as follows. The more inequity,the more capital is concentrated. Concentrated capital does not consume,it invests. This means a huge supply of money that wants to get interest,with as results interest rates coming down. When there is not a huge accumulation of capital in a few hands,then there is much less capital available for lending with result higher interest rates. There is no way interest rates can rise from the current level and within the current wealth distribution,without causing huge inflation. The large bulk of capital swimming around the world would make a to high return without doing anything basicly. And this money has to come from somewhere,but where? | ||
xDaunt
United States17988 Posts
| ||
zatic
Zurich15267 Posts
On June 29 2016 04:28 xDaunt wrote: Sounds like there's another terrorist attack (or something) at the Istanbul airport. | ||
RvB
Netherlands6081 Posts
(Reuters) - Two suicide bombers opened fire before blowing themselves up at the entrance to the main international airport in Istanbul on Tuesday, killing at least 10 people and wounding many more, Turkish officials and witnesses said. Police fired shots to try to stop the attackers just before they reached a security checkpoint at the arrivals hall of the Ataturk airport but they blew themselves up, one of the officials said. Speaking in parliament, Justice Minister Bekir Bozdag said that based on initial information he could only confirm that there had been one attacker. He said 10 people were killed and around 20 wounded. "According to information I have received, at the entrance to the Ataturk Airport international terminal a terrorist first opened fire with a Kalashnikov and then blew themself up," he said in comments broadcast by CNN Turk. Ataturk is Turkey's largest airport and a major transport hub for international travellers. Pictures posted on social media from the site showed wounded people lying on the ground inside and outside one of the terminal buildings Television footage showed ambulances rushing to the scene. One witness told CNN Turk that gunfire was heard from the car park at the airport. Taxis were ferrying wounded people from the airport, the witness said. Authorities halted the takeoff of scheduled flights from the airport and passengers were transferred to hotels, a Turkish Airlines official said. Earlier an airport official said some flights to the airport had been diverted Turkey has suffered a spate of bombings this year, including two suicide attacks in tourist areas of Istanbul blamed on Islamic State, and two car bombings in the capital, Ankara, which were claimed by a Kurdish militant group. In the most recent attack, a car bomb ripped through a police bus in central Istanbul during the morning rush hour, killing 11 people and wounding 36 near the main tourist district, a major university and the mayor's office. uk.mobile.reuters.com | ||
Laserist
Turkey4269 Posts
3-4 guys used rifles, grenades and suicide bomb one after another, it seems. | ||
| ||