EPTI must say I don't trust them very much after your last performance on geript...
Newbie Student Mafia XI - Page 51
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ruXxar
Norway5668 Posts
I must say I don't trust them very much after your last performance on geript... | ||
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batsnacks
United States4466 Posts
On June 15 2015 05:52 ruXxar wrote: I must say I don't trust them very much after your last performance on geript... Brother You sheeped me. HARD. | ||
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Damdred
15669 Posts
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MoosyDoosy
United States4519 Posts
On June 15 2015 05:50 ruXxar wrote: Here's some food for thought. So far we have scum reads on 2 mafia, Rels and Sulfu. Both are newbies. How likely do you think that all 3 mafia are in the newbie group? Would it not make sense that at least 1 mafia is part of the veteran group? People who have played previous newbie games, what is usually the distribution of mafia on newbie/veteran side? I'd say there's a likely chance. There might be one slippery veteran or just another newbie. Even geript suggested that it might be 3 newbies although I know he was suspected me at one point so I might have been one of his suspects. When you think about it, I find it more than plausible. Rels came into the thread a bit late which means he might not have been able to catch onto my dumb first post. However, note that he also moves on immediately to point out my passive post as well as Plants' post. On the other hand, Sulfurus might have been reading from the very start (evidenced where he votes against Kickstart in the beginning). But judging from Sulfurus's playstyle, he's rather passive and he's only been in one game in the past. I see it possible that he might not have seen the opportunity to jump on either mine or Plants's post due to inexperience or passive playstyle. | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
He sure did. And you can understand no one ever wanting to make THAT mistake again. | ||
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batsnacks
United States4466 Posts
On June 15 2015 05:58 n00bKing wrote: He sure did. And you can understand no one ever wanting to make THAT mistake again. That's not how it works. | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On June 15 2015 05:39 batsnacks wrote: While I'm still here I want to point out that n00bking was eerily upset when me/sulfurus stopped being the primary wagons yesterday. He made a couple posts about it I think he compared town to a train wreck after my lynch started losing steam. Don't let him get by with all this role speculation/advice stuff town made the same mistake last game with boxerfred. I compared town to a trainwreck after you AND Sulfurus lost steam, and geript was gaining steam. If I couldn't lynch you, I was happy to lynch Sulfurus. (You know, cuz Theory?) I was not at all interested in lynching geript, so yeah, was getting pretty unhappy. By the way, how about them roles? I wonder which roles are in the game, and who has 'em. Rolly-roll-role-roles. | ||
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Onegu
United States9695 Posts
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scott31337
United States2979 Posts
On June 15 2015 05:50 ruXxar wrote: Here's some food for thought. So far we have scum reads on 2 mafia, Rels and Sulfu. Both are newbies. How likely do you think that all 3 mafia are in the newbie group? Would it not make sense that at least 1 mafia is part of the veteran group? People who have played previous newbie games, what is usually the distribution of mafia on newbie/veteran side? In theory it's RNG. IX was all newbies until Holyflare replaced in. | ||
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ruXxar
Norway5668 Posts
On June 15 2015 06:02 n00bKing wrote: I compared town to a trainwreck after you AND Sulfurus lost steam, and geript was gaining steam. If I couldn't lynch you, I was happy to lynch Sulfurus. (You know, cuz Theory?) I was not at all interested in lynching geript, so yeah, was getting pretty unhappy. By the way, how about them roles? I wonder which roles are in the game, and who has 'em. Rolly-roll-role-roles. if I was a cop then I would check you or trelf. In my eyes you are the strongest players in this game and it would be dangerous if you were mafia. | ||
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ruXxar
Norway5668 Posts
On June 15 2015 06:18 ruXxar wrote: if I was a cop then I would check you or trelf. In my eyes you are the strongest players in this game and it would be dangerous if you were mafia. Actually I'm more scared of n00bking being mafia than trelf at this point. I would definitely check you n00bking. | ||
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batsnacks
United States4466 Posts
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ruXxar
Norway5668 Posts
On June 15 2015 06:24 batsnacks wrote: ruxxar is this your first game? Yes. | ||
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Rels
France13467 Posts
 A message to everybody: I'm town, so even if I'm lynched tomorrow keep these in mind: - look for who is sheeping my lynch too easily - continue looking for mafia even if you're sure I am one. In particular, don't start suspecting people because of my relations with them, like moosy did, before I flip Alright, see you all tomorrow | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On June 15 2015 06:18 ruXxar wrote: if I was a cop then I would check you or trelf. In my eyes you are the strongest players in this game and it would be dangerous if you were mafia. Hmm. I'll just leave this right here: ruXxar wrote: n00bking is my #1 townread right now, 100%. Trfel would be second. You sure you know what the cop is for? | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
On June 15 2015 06:48 Rels wrote: Yo everybody. Wasn't available all day. I finish reading everything and I have a lot of posts to answer to and I need to sleep so I will do that tomorrow. If I'm not vigid of course. So if you die tonight, it could only be because you were vigi'd? There's no chance the scum team would have killed you? That's only because you're lynchbait now, right? And not because you're on the team?  | ||
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Rels
France13467 Posts
On June 15 2015 06:53 n00bKing wrote: So if you die tonight, it could only be because you were vigi'd? There's no chance the scum team would have killed you? That's only because you're lynchbait now, right? And not because you're on the team? Hehe | ||
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MoosyDoosy
United States4519 Posts
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
WALL OF TEXT TIME! I don't particularly expect to be killed tonight. But just in case that happens, here's where my thoughts are at. Briefly, let's consider what it means if I do get killed. There was one post I made that I backreferenced twice, and is probably the post that would be most strongly associated with me. It was this one: n00bKing wrote: Situation: 11 players have votes in place, and 2 players are not voting. All 11 of the votes are on either batsnacks or Sulfurus. No one has a vote on anyone else. At this stage of a Day 1, I'm more used to seeing a smattering of votes on some other miscellaneous players too. Maybe partially because the scum team doesn't want to have all their votes in one place, so they fan out some (and maybe a random Townie or two gets tunneled on their respective targets, and won't budge, even though no one else has any interest in following along). Theory: This situation makes it pretty likely that one of the two players receiving votes is actually scum, and that we don't have a Town vs. Town situation for our two vote leaders. The scum team has not been able to fan out their votes, because they've needed "all hands on deck" to make sure that the scum player doesn't take a runaway lead in the voting. Conclusion: Even though there's a lot of time left in the Phase, we may not want to introduce a third lynch target, and should instead stick to trying to pick between these two (since, if the Theory is correct, one of them would flip Red). I didn't have any luck whatsoever trying to get geript out of the noose, and some players (like damdred and batsnacks) have been saying that a lot of my posts can just be safely ignored. Based on all that, I don't think the scum players would kill me, to make it look like they were trying to silence me, to FRAME one of Sulfurus/batsnacks, if they were both actually town. Rather, the scum team would only kill me if my Theory was indeed correct, and one of Sulfurus/batsnacks IS scum. So remember, if the scum team kills me, the Theory is correct. We already know that I still think the Theory is correct, and I've mentioned some possible teammates for batsnacks (damdred, Moosy) if he is the bad guy in this scenario. And I said that I also had some ideas in mind about who could be possible teammates for Sulfurus, if he is the bad guy in this scenario. So here goes. If Sulfurus is scum, my best guess for a teammate of his is ruXxar. And my second-best guess is Rels. Trying to catch the entirety of a 3-man scum team before anyone flips red might be a fool's errand, but there are a lot of interesting things to note, about the interactions (and sometimes, lack of interactions) between these 3 players. Most of all, they do not speak to each other directly, they just speak OF each other indirectly. This could be because all 3 of them are on the Newbie list. A couple of them may be playing as scum in Mafia-by-forum for their very first time. And they may be trying to avoid talking with each other, because they question their ability to make the conversation seem authentic, rather than fabricated. Sulfurus has not made any posts where he is speaking directly to ruXxar OR rels. None. NONE! Nor has ruXxar made ANY posts where he is speaking directly to Sulfurus. Rels has made only 1 post where he is speaking directly to Sulfurus, and has made 2 posts where he is speaking directly to ruXxar. ruXxar has made only 1 post where he is speaking directly to Rels, and that was a post where he is answering a question that Rels has posed to him. But although these guys don't ever talk to each other, they talk ABOUT each other plenty. If you look through their respective filters, you'll find a LOT of instances where they are soft-defending each other, and giving each other slight town reads. Occasionally one of them will give one of the others a hard town read instead. Sometimes they talk about their willingness to vote against one of the others, but it NEVER actually happens. One of the most interesting posts in all of Day 1 was this one: This was the towniest post batsnacks made the whole phase. He's been in this vote race with Sulfurus for a lot of the day, yet he points out that it is curious (and yes, bold) for Sulfurus (if he were scum) to protect Rels, who has surfaced as a third horse in that vote race. If batsnacks is scum and trying to avoid the noose, why is he pointing out something Sulfurus had said that wouldn't make any sense, if Sulfurus were scum? So this reflects well on batsnacks, more than anything else he did the whole phase. And it's a GOOD question. If Sulfurus is scum and trying to avoid the noose, why is he protecting this new potential target (Rels)? Well, one explanation that would make sense is: If Rels is ALSO scum. Lastly, I'll take a look at how this potential Sulfurus/reXxar/Rels team fits in with my Theory about the Day 1 voting. Here's the vote count, at the time I posted the Theory: On June 13 2015 20:33 Onegu wrote: Oatsmaster (0): ruXxar (0): Kickstart (0): Sulfurus (5): Kickstart, geript, batsnacks, WaveOfShadow, scott11331373737373771317371373 Batsnacks (6): n00bKing, ruXxar, Oatsmaster, sulfurus, Rels, Trfel scott113133373737131731371313713137 (0): Geript (0): Rels (0): Not Voting (2): MoosyDoosy Damdred If the scum team is Sulfurus/ruXxar/Rels, then without a doubt, you've got "all hands on deck" in that vote count, keeping batsnacks in the lead ahead of Sulfurus. All 3 of them have their vote on batsnacks, to help make sure Sulfurus doesn't run out to an insurmountable lead. And the timing of those votes makes sense too, in that scenario. ruXxar was on batsnacks early. It isn't until Sulfurus picks up a 2nd vote (the one from geript) that Sulfurus goes ahead and piles onto batsnacks. And it isn't until Sulfurus picks up a 3rd vote (the one from batsnacks) that Rels ALSO piles onto batsnacks. But I'm sure they wouldn't be comfortable, all having their vote on the same guy, who they know would flip green. So once Trfel puts the 6th vote on batsnacks, Rels is looking to make a move. As I mentioned at the time, he goes OUTSIDE the game, to look at batsnacks' meta, to manufacture an excuse to move his vote off of him. If he can get a third horse going, it could shut down the usefulness of my Theory, because it can stall the batsnacks vs. Sulfurus debate for another day. So Rels goes after geript, who we now know was Town. He then IMMEDIATELY bails on the thread (in the same post where he puts his vote on geript) so that I won't have a chance to berate him for how his vote change violates the Conclusion of my Theory. Rels can safely move off of batsnacks, because even in the 5 vs. 5 tie it creates, batsnacks would still be the lynch, and not Sulfurus. He can always shift back later if he needs to, but if they can get away with it, they really don't want to all be in the same place at the same time. I said during Day 1 that Sulfurus was my "#2 suspect." batsnacks was #1. Later in the day, I said that Sulfurus was "still a Top 2 suspect for me." I no longer said he was #2, just Top 2. Because he had actually overtaken batsnacks as #1. I just hadn't moved my vote yet (or even admitted that Sulfurus was the new #1), because I wanted to see batsnacks follow through on his promise to "destroy the thread" if he stayed in the vote lead long enough. Sulfurus would be my top lynch on Day 2. If he flips Red, is it better to go after ruXxar or Rels next? That's tough. The ties between Sulfurus and ruXxar are definitely stronger than the ties between Sulfurus and Rels. But Rels is being read by more people as being generally scummy right now, so he might be the easier lynch, even if ruXxar could be the more logical lynch. I'll say again that I would not waste a cop check on ruXxar, because if he's scum, I think his most likely role is Ignignokt. If Sulfurus flips Green, then it's back to the drawing board, to some extent. Hopefully that would mean a batsnacks scum team, and he's paired with either Moosy or damdred. But that case is tougher to make than Sulfurus/ruXxar/Rels. If Sulfurus and batsnacks are both Green, then I have been wrong about pretty close to everything in this game, and you shouldn't even be interested in who I think the scum team might be, at that point. If it's something like Kickstart/Wave/Trfel, then...good luck with that. Alright, that's it. Go Town! | ||
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Trfel
7015 Posts
I still feel like Rels is pretty scummy. Sulfurus is starting to look a bit worse as well. I'm having some trouble with scott31337, and Kickstart's absence is starting to be a little concerning. Damdred might also be scum. n00bKing, WaveofShadow, both are almost certainly town. MoosyDoosy is probably town. Argh, EON too fast. | ||
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