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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On March 06 2015 11:32 Onegu wrote:
Also Keir is most likely town for his vote on me. Makes zero sense for mafia to vote me at this point, they know the green check on me is real as.they know I'm town. Or the 1% chance I'm scum (I'm not), why would a.scum Keir bring attention to me, and a bus would make little.to no sense as if I flipped red at some point him being on me when there was a green check stinks of TMI.
I assume you mean kurumi, not keir?
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On March 06 2015 11:34 batsnacks wrote:Show nested quote +On March 06 2015 11:18 Half the Sky wrote:On March 06 2015 11:14 batsnacks wrote:
Okay I read three of the 4 filters and made my decision.
##vote Tubesock Elaborate what you think is town on Sandroba please. Sicklucker is also not very easy to read, generally speaking. Where did you think he was town? I don't know that Sandroba is town and I didn't feel like reading SL's filter. So... it's tubes for me.
Ninja should mercy kill this guy because he deserves a break after all the hard work he has done this game.
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On March 06 2015 11:16 Half the Sky wrote:Show nested quote +On March 06 2015 10:52 sicklucker wrote:
Keirathi - cant remember anything hes said all game Have you actually read his filter? If so, what sort of reads are you getting from it? Because I recall others having different conclusions using different critieria.
No but like day 1 didnt matter everyone knew someone was gonna yolo a shot so there was little reason to plau. The real game started day 2 and hes been not existent.
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On March 06 2015 11:26 Onegu wrote:Show nested quote +On March 06 2015 10:52 sicklucker wrote:
I think the mafias in
Sandroba - Hes got a cop check which hes in a cell with and hes not trying to solve the game are you kidding me?
Slam - Thinks im scum too easy Im putting up a hell of a defense
Kurumi - Just making distractions hes not chezuni. Scum slipped about foolishness being the mafia spirit.
Onegu - Way too believing in sandroba I think he should be somewhat skeptical as town
Ls - Literally ignored me and has not contributed anything except a list post at eod when he was up for a shot.
Keirathi - cant remember anything hes said all game
Hts - Super lurky and everyone cant be wrong about her
Bats has a chance too because I have no idea what hes doing I'm town and then as one of the most vocal players is pushing my lynch. I get put in a cell and then a cop claims he got a green check on me. Why would I be skeptical of that? And you just got finished saying it's extremely unlikely that I am GF or was framed. So which is it. I'm town a few posts ago and now I'm scum? You aren't making sense. And now with the town spirit thing in your filter I am fairly certain you are the scum in the cell.
You can be mafia or you can be town. I would just never lynch you the entire game if sandro flips town because its so unlikely you were framed. Thats all im saying
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Onegu if the scummiest person in the cell green checks you. You should be pretty skeptical. If your town he could be setting up your mislynch later if his plan backfires and hes mafia.
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On March 06 2015 11:34 batsnacks wrote:Show nested quote +On March 06 2015 11:18 Half the Sky wrote:On March 06 2015 11:14 batsnacks wrote:
Okay I read three of the 4 filters and made my decision.
##vote Tubesock Elaborate what you think is town on Sandroba please. Sicklucker is also not very easy to read, generally speaking. Where did you think he was town? I don't know that Sandroba is town and I didn't feel like reading SL's filter. So... it's tubes for me.
Thats too bad because I gave 3 free town reads to people that caught things in my filter that I didnt even remember. That shit proves effort.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
From the viewpoint of game balance, in a 26 player setup with six mafia and two third party you're going to expect town to have five to seven blue roles.
The lynch mechanics are a bit harsh towards town so the benefit of roles being redistributed nightly shouldn't impact this number much.
So far we have 1 claimed vig and 1 claimed cop check. That is way below the 5-7 roles one would expect. Even in a worst case scenario where toad and rayn were given roles and there are a couple passive vets or something where the player is not aware, we fall short. I suppose people could be holding their actions, but I don't think that benefits us right now if it is clearing sandroba as a result.
sandroba's filter aside, it makes sense that the cop check is legit from a numbers standpoint.
As much as I hate to trust a player who is hardly playing the game, I'm likely choosing between sicklucker and tube.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On March 05 2015 10:28 sicklucker wrote:
The cop could be real but its far less likely. The most obvious thing is that im town. So if hes real tube is mafia ill reread his filter at some point
Do you find it more likely that we had one blue vig last night in a setup where we should be having at least six?
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I would like to point out Sepulchre the most likely person to flip ninja or mafia has voted me. The reason hes most likely not town is because theres little scum motivation to fake his shot because if hes proved a liar its a 1for1 trade
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
A look at past games of similar size:
TL Mafia LXIII:
6 mafia
2 3p
10 blues
TL Mafia LXIII:
6 mafia
4 blues
Storm 2:
5 mafia
2 3p
8 blues
TL Mafia LXVIII:
5 mafia
6 blues
TL Mafia LXIX:
6 mafia
6 blues
Jack of All trades
6 mafia
2 3p
1 blue?
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On January 28 2015 21:30 Artanis[Xp] wrote:
Those points can be spent buying roles for their faction.
Unless of course I'm misinterpreting this statement and it is possible for a town spirit to buy a role for a player outside their faction.
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On March 06 2015 11:34 batsnacks wrote:Show nested quote +On March 06 2015 11:18 Half the Sky wrote:On March 06 2015 11:14 batsnacks wrote:
Okay I read three of the 4 filters and made my decision.
##vote Tubesock Elaborate what you think is town on Sandroba please. Sicklucker is also not very easy to read, generally speaking. Where did you think he was town? I don't know that Sandroba is town and I didn't feel like reading SL's filter. So... it's tubes for me.
What annoys me is that the setup is making it mechanically impossible for me to kill this person.
Bleh. If we ever get the dueling setup, I'm dueling this guy.
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Ok I'm here. I have a tub of ice cream with me
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In looking at Tube's filter. I think I've been really wrong about him. Recently-ish I was doing something on TS, maybe voice mafia, and ended up talking with Chezinu. I was thinking about posting like him in a game or two for funsies and asked him about he formed reads and things. He said that he always has hidden reads but that only town really try and figure them out. So it's often quite easy for him to start reads with who's actually trying to read him and interact with him.
Tube's done that at least a few times this game. I can't explain why it kinda bugs me that he did a simple EWBOP instead of an employee update sending it like there was a communications failure; that would've been really cute. I think Kurumi is the only person that really knows about this read (maybe Keir and Kita but I don't think so). Plus, he's been completely fearless when talking to me. That's another good sign.
I also remembered a conversation on TS at the end of d1 in palmers game between me, Koshi, Rayn, SL, LS and VE. The basic situation is Sl and Eden were double bussing each other and both were up for lynch. Eden was at work and couldn't get on skype and basically did nothing. SL got on skype and basically begged and pleaded to lynch Eden without really adding anything. It's something that kinda reminded me of his play today when I was skimming through while job hunting.
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You cant compare my game this time to office mafia. Here im leading the thread driving the discussion and have actual reads unlike in that game.
Your right about tube were both town. Your really trying hard to come up with a reason not to see the truth. Your leading town to another loss.
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Gepot your also voting with the person you shot and didnt die....
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I will give it to u sickluxker
Your f5 skills and dedication is legendary.
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On March 06 2015 13:41 sicklucker wrote:
Gepot your also voting with the person you shot and didnt die....
And he's likely a ninja. IDK, maybe I'm wrong on Tube, I'll explain more after league game
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On March 06 2015 14:03 geript wrote:Show nested quote +On March 06 2015 13:41 sicklucker wrote:
Gepot your also voting with the person you shot and didnt die.... And he's likely a ninja. IDK, maybe I'm wrong on Tube, I'll explain more after league game
Maybe not a ninja, but that requires mafia to have gotten the RB power and rb'd me. Maybe they gave him a vest or got a medic, but I find that pretty unlikely. Like a vest is a possibility as I think it has more uses than a medic. But mafia getting a vest is really, really unlikely imo. Like for this sort of setup where that could negate like at least 1 form of lynch mechanic that seems really OP. Plus as of right now, town's only gotten 2 roles. Even if we assume both Toad and Rayn got roles, it's hard to think that neither of them get a medic and they choose to save someone other than each other. So For Sepulchre to be a mafia, they had to have gotten an RB and had to have used it on me AND town didn't get a medic. Like that's really, really unlikely.
TLDR Sep is actually probably a ninja.
Plus for if he is mafia, then he's with Tube which makes almost no sense in my mind. Like that would require Kurumi and/or Kita/Keir to be mafia. Kurumi/Tube doesn't make much sense because Kurumi can do some cute stuff as mafia, but he's not really that sly to setup that type of interaction together imo. Kita would push for Tube to be effective and post about stuff; like he's pretty big from my experience on trying to control the thread and push lynches. Keir IDK what he would do. I can't remember a game off the top of my head where he's been mafia.
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EPT
