EPTNewbie Mini Mafia LX - Page 43
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The Shining
United States2406 Posts
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
On January 09 2015 12:37 rsoultin wrote: None whatsoever @ HTS. She's brand new to mafia. Her very first game. I'm just treating her as an inactive right now because I can't get anything from an AFK vote anyway and she's posted so little. Regardless, she's definitely not in my top scumreads that would make her a potential lynch tomorrow unless everyone goes stark raving mad and decides to vote you and ExO as scum or something. Then I'd be willing to settle on just about anyone else lol ><. I agree she is not a D2 lynch. Not in the least compared to the other options. Just trying to get an idea of how someone who actually knows her is evaluating her, combined with that you are also a strong town read for me, I know I can trust your opinion. | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
Belatedly, though, I'm not really sure what is in-character for him in mafia games. We played a little on the much more inactive site. I know he likes votes, numbers, real evidence and not so much what people say cause people can lie. But how that translates into an active game from an inactive one, or compares to how we treat each other normally...it's hard to say. Silver's always friendly to me? But we're friends. So that is kind of a given. | ||
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Silverarte
115 Posts
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
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Silverarte
115 Posts
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Silverarte
115 Posts
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
I won't lynch the following tomorrow under any circumstances: HTS ExO (lesser town read, but still a town read) Those I would prefer not to lynch from strongest to weakest: JarJar (despite the OMGUS moment at his case, was consistent on his reads leading up to the lynch, and voted sensibly) Tubesock (appeared tunneled, took responsibility afterwards, solid posting before and after) Silver (complete null) Shining (suspicious, don't like the lying, but his defense was otherwise convincing and he's improved in Day 2. willing to give him more time) Gumdrop (suspicious, but he hasn't posted hardly at all. the only thing that doesn't make this a policy lynch is the point I asked him to clarify on EoD...and I'd like to see his answer before lynching him) On to lynchables: LS - <3 you, dude, but I think you're a solid lynch + all actives you townread (with the exception of shining at null), and all inactives you null read (scum WW as "worst inactive") - thanks to ExO (I think) for turning me on to this gem + only reaction to WWs soft claim was to ask him to claim + sudden rage after flip and saying you tunneled him...where? your reads put him as basically the worst of your nulls + meta point: afraid of lynching blues in all prior games -Celestial- - not personal either, but you're my top choice + all three lynchwagons were scumread by you in your last Day 1 list post, with waffling back and forth on LS afterwards + kept saying WW lynch felt wrong, yet reacted to blue claim saying it wasn't enough to convince "us" (weren't you already convinced given your posts?) + more about WW lynch feeling wrong, but did nothing about it i.e. tried to get others to vote JarJar with you or change your vote to other two scumreads LS and Shining + lesser point, but you never mention my static vote on WW despite Shining case until I question you...why didn't it come up before in your WW lynch feels wrong posts? Will place the vote here tomorrow morning, all things remaining equal. If anyone wants links to the posts behind those points, please ask. (Was going for readability.) | ||
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Silverarte
115 Posts
Current Scum Reads: Celesial and LS LS - if you don't mind, I'm not going to beat this horse into the ground anymore. I'd like to see what LS comes back with tomorrow, if anything. If you need me to expound on this, I certainly can but I don't really want to make everyone reread what they've already seen. I can put up the reasons I support this if anyone really wants to see them. Celestial - First off, I've been reading and rereading ExO's and Shining's points. While I do believe Celestial is expecting me to defend myself to calling me a liar, Shining got the defense out before I did. Some of you might say that is convienent, and admittedly, it is. But let me add a few things from this newbie mafia player in your group. Firstly: ExO makes a great point. You may not have lied, but there are levels of inconsistency in your votes. LS --> Jarjar ---->LS. While LS seems to have generally given up on defending himself, you're pretty active (which is great!), so let's keep going. Secondly:, Celestial did not post substance on one of his Scum claims til Tubeshock insisted on it. Loudly. Then we got something. And then guess who's first...Shining! Then...Rsoultin? Now, admittedly, I caught this post below but still. Why these two? You've made a good case to support your claim, but while Shining has been in and out of the scum radar, Rsoultin was not a strong case for you previously (or so I thought!). Admittedly, she was suspicious for you, but why suddenly these coming to the forefront? On January 09 2015 08:21 -Celestial- wrote: I literally just stated that my case on jarjar was shaken by his massive improvement after the flip. Or did you miss that part? Or are you deliberately ignoring it? You asked for a case and since you were bloody well doubting the LS read I thought it would be handy for you to convince yourself on it. If you don't want that then fine. Now, I'm fine with a vote change..but are Shining and Rsoultin honestly your top picks now? I know they were always on your radar, but top? Thirdly: Hmm. Quite honestly, your posts are reading like lashing out. While this game is emotionally charged, what is there to suddenly get frustrated with? Why get frustrated with a scum read and someone wanting them? I'm given to understand that's par for the course. None of it's personal guys. You're fantastic! But....I was asked and here it shall be! | ||
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Silverarte
115 Posts
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jarjarbinks
569 Posts
I'm giving my top three lynch targets. They are the same as before. I'm attaching percentages to them. This is % chance they are mafia in my book. 27% (3/10 +/- 3%) is the lowest % you can have. I'm attaching mini-normal % increases based on how the dead voted and giving myself a 3% buffer for on my opinions of their play so far. 1. LS- 46%. 14% increase based on dead votes and a 2% increase based on today's play and the day 1 claim. I still sympathize with LS, but that's why I'm using equations over my feelings. One of the cases I saw with LS in also had everyone on LS's balls for almost the whole game (at least based off votes). 2. Shining- 39%. 9% increase based on dead votes. 0% on my opinions of the 2 days play. 3. Tube Sock- 38%. 11% increase based on dead votes. 3% decrease based on play. The early waffle vote on tube hurt tube a lot. I also wonder if waffle wasn't under pressure, if he would have kept the tube vote. But I have really liked tube's play today. I liked his theory, however flawed it was. My estimate is very flawed. I only have 2 past cases of voting history to go on as of now. I also haven't really attributed any points towards good voting. But it's all I've got, besides my opinions. If I make it back before the votes, count on me switching my vote from LS to a bandwagon I agree with IF my vote is alone AND I can use my vote to lynch someone on this list. I'm providing my %'s of everyone else if you are curious, not explaining them though because its 3 in the morning. Hope this helps understand my thoughts. 4. Gumdrop 33% 5. Silverarte 33% 6. Celestial 32% 7. Rsoultin 31% 8. Exo 30% 9. HTS 28% | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
For kicks and giggles later (I don't even need this before EoD but others may be more curious) could you give us your equation at some point? I was wondering how to "quantify" my reads, as well, cause settling on feels to determine the weight of the behavior seems very subjective. (Probably would use more inputs than just what the dead voters voted, though.) Thanks! | ||
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
Celestial isn't looking too good right now to me (which I'll explain in my next post) either after reviewing him last night, but I want him to answer some questions before deciding where he falls. I didn't like JJB's attitude D1, and I said earlier today I didn't like his read development (page 32) and in his response to me on Shining, this made even less sense to me: On January 08 2015 13:58 jarjarbinks wrote: Can't find the quote to back me up on this...Shining said something I really liked, right before I voted for him ironically. I swear I'm super good at this game lolz. Then he changed his vote to Waffle and I facepalmed. I still blame myself for that. I think Shining blamed me too later. Apologies. Went through ExO's filter. I'm seeing nothing but pointed, honest questions, so I'm still having a town read on ExO. Low postcount high content, but he's striking me the same way as LoneMeow, progressive questions where he does conclude where someone is scum. He's still looking for information. Tubesock is a null - generally speaking, being tunnelled on someone is considered non-alignment indicative. His posts on the NKs was thought out however flawed it was though from what I could tell of the filter, I looked at the exchange between Tube and Celestial however, and Celestial had explained twice over why JJB was looking better in his eyes, where Tube had expected him to still make a case on JJB, even after that. So that tells me he's not reading or selectively reading. Silverarte, I had her as null leaning town as I felt her reads were well laid out, though I wanted to see more from her in her reads. I understand her points on Celestial re: Shining and Rasputin, but I also didn't like how she brought out the Tube quote with JJB, considering again, going through Celestial's filter, he HAD said that JJB was looking better to him post-flip. So, at face value it reads as if she's taking things out of context. So still null in the end. Shining is looking better to me, I feel he has some good thought out explanations. I feel he's stepped it up a bit since post-lynch. I did like some of his points against Celestial, which tells me he's reading and sniffing things out. | ||
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
Back to his read on Rasputin, this is what I saw earlier from D2: On January 08 2015 23:07 -Celestial- wrote: My D1 issue with rsoultin is that having looked back over it her vote does not sit at all with her argument. Which I really, really don't like; I feel that if you believe that strongly you should vote and hope others follow. That being said I'm not entirely sure that makes rsoultin scum. No. My issue with rsoultin I mentioned above. I'm just kind of floating on her. Sometimes I get a strong scum feel others I feel she's genuinely town. And then last night he presents a case on Rasputin. Now, honestly I felt there were a few holes in his case. But I'm having a tough time pulling his read development on Rasputin as well. He seems to go back and forth on Rasputin and then develops a case with largely the same material he used before, but with a different outcome, now a scumread. So the waffling argument definitely applies here too. Hopefully you can clarify his development on Rasputin and give me some updated content for D2 whether you think that has changed any. | ||
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Tubesock
United States2726 Posts
On January 09 2015 10:52 -Celestial- wrote: Oh and I'm sorry I can't answer more questions tonight. Thing is I've been actively writing and getting bombarded with stuff for something like six hours straight now by a bunch of people (I started addressing stuff at like quarter to 8 or something, its ten to two in the morning right now and I've only moved for a twenty minute break to get food). I'm exhausted and my mind is totally fatigued. I badly need a rest. I'll try to make sure I've not missed any by checking over tomorrow. Goodnight. So, from what I read from your posting. Your mafia team is: LightningStrike The Shining Rsoultin You town Jarjar on his "drastic improvement" D2. Can you expand on why? Also, I may totally disregard it anyway, so don't go building a huge case, summarize. But, there are others you need to convince. I absolutely sympathize with how exhaustive the game mafia is. I apologize if you're town. | ||
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Tubesock
United States2726 Posts
On January 09 2015 22:32 Half the Sky wrote: + Show Spoiler + At this point in time, my top lynch choice is LS, with JJB behind him, Celestial and Gumdrop, though the last one is essentially a policy vote. Celestial isn't looking too good right now to me (which I'll explain in my next post) either after reviewing him last night, but I want him to answer some questions before deciding where he falls. I didn't like JJB's attitude D1, and I said earlier today I didn't like his read development (page 32) and in his response to me on Shining, this made even less sense to me: On January 08 2015 13:58 jarjarbinks wrote: Can't find the quote to back me up on this...Shining said something I really liked, right before I voted for him ironically. I swear I'm super good at this game lolz. Then he changed his vote to Waffle and I facepalmed. I still blame myself for that. I think Shining blamed me too later. Apologies. Went through ExO's filter. I'm seeing nothing but pointed, honest questions, so I'm still having a town read on ExO. Low postcount high content, but he's striking me the same way as LoneMeow, progressive questions where he does conclude where someone is scum. He's still looking for information. Tubesock is a null - generally speaking, being tunnelled on someone is considered non-alignment indicative. His posts on the NKs was thought out however flawed it was though from what I could tell of the filter, I looked at the exchange between Tube and Celestial however, and Celestial had explained twice over why JJB was looking better in his eyes, where Tube had expected him to still make a case on JJB, even after that. So that tells me he's not reading or selectively reading. + Show Spoiler + Silverarte, I had her as null leaning town as I felt her reads were well laid out, though I wanted to see more from her in her reads. I understand her points on Celestial re: Shining and Rasputin, but I also didn't like how she brought out the Tube quote with JJB, considering again, going through Celestial's filter, he HAD said that JJB was looking better to him post-flip. So, at face value it reads as if she's taking things out of context. So still null in the end. Shining is looking better to me, I feel he has some good thought out explanations. I feel he's stepped it up a bit since post-lynch. I did like some of his points against Celestial, which tells me he's reading and sniffing things out. I still can't find where he rescinded his scum read on Jarjar. Where? | ||
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Half the Sky
Germany9029 Posts
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
What do you think about Celestial's can't be assed to do anything when he is saying WW is a bad lynch, and Shining and LS both were scumreads of his at the time, HTS? Also, re: Celestial's case on me, it could be summed up as: - Blue-hunting first few posts (pretty sure no one thinks that but him at this point; correct me if I'm wrong) - Keeping vote on WW (already explained) Meh, no reason for me to even respond to it. Will say that there is a ton of words there to repeat the same things, though. | ||
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LightningStrike
United States14276 Posts
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
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