Newbie Mini Mafia LX - Page 44

I was convinced by jarjar until I saw his post-flip analysis which comes across as a lot more genuine as an attempt to help out town. I'm still highly suspicious of rsoultin's motives, with the fact that she didn't remove that WW vote sitting pretty on top of the pile of reasons for my suspicion, despite the explanation.

I've got to eat right now but if you want me to I can run through my full thoughts on jarjar from the past couple of days when I get back if you like.

On January 09 2015 23:09 Half the Sky wrote:
Tubesock, the quotes in question. You can also go to page 4 of his filter.







Did he say explicitly? No. But that was the impression I got from reading his quotes.

On January 09 2015 23:13 rsoultin wrote:
...Did you read my post? No, it wasn't directed at you, but I don't see where your defeated attitude is coming from.

On January 08 2015 14:07 rsoultin wrote:
Gonna be honest, I really wouldn't be unhappy with a Celestial train. My concern is my problem is his logic (or lack thereof) in my eyes. Wasted votes are bad, plain and simple. Some of the things he's said, like being concerned about being consistent, rub me wrong, too. I keep going...eh, he's new...but at some point that excuse has to run out. Maybe? I don't know ><

On January 09 2015 05:17 LightningStrike wrote:
Rsoultin if you are here my baby girl we voting Celestial right now so now is your chance to get rid of one of your scum reads!

On January 09 2015 02:11 ExO_ wrote:


You are lying and I can prove it.



Before my post, this is the only mention you made to lightning strike. And even though you say he posts fluff, in that same post you go on to say his last post was good and he gets some credit. The next time you mention LS, is quoting and agreeing with me.





Oh really?



At this point in time I had been gone from the thread for a while. And thus the discussion moved away from LS for a while. As does your vote, and your vocal suspicions. Next comes:



You finally go back on to LS with:



Coincidentally guess what I posted just 6 posts and 12 minutes before the above quoted post::



HTS and I have a discussion about LS, and then you went back on him.

So at the very least, you are lying about suspecting LS before I posted. You pushed suspicion onto the WW train while carefully parking your vote on jarjar. You have been careful this game and generally agreeable. But if there's one thing I believe:

Liars should be lynched

People make mistakes. But I believe your post is intentionally misleading, not accidental.

##Vote: Celestial

On January 09 2015 17:03 jarjarbinks wrote:
OK quick rundown of the why on this post. I'm worried I might miss the EOD because of work because its been pretty busy as of late xD Christmas is definitely over! Chances me missing it ARE slim though.

I'm giving my top three lynch targets. They are the same as before. I'm attaching percentages to them. This is % chance they are mafia in my book. 27% (3/10 +/- 3%) is the lowest % you can have. I'm attaching mini-normal % increases based on how the dead voted and giving myself a 3% buffer for on my opinions of their play so far.

1. LS- 46%. 14% increase based on dead votes and a 2% increase based on today's play and the day 1 claim. I still sympathize with LS, but that's why I'm using equations over my feelings. One of the cases I saw with LS in also had everyone on LS's balls for almost the whole game (at least based off votes).

2. Shining- 39%. 9% increase based on dead votes. 0% on my opinions of the 2 days play.

3. Tube Sock- 38%. 11% increase based on dead votes. 3% decrease based on play. The early waffle vote on tube hurt tube a lot. I also wonder if waffle wasn't under pressure, if he would have kept the tube vote. But I have really liked tube's play today. I liked his theory, however flawed it was.

My estimate is very flawed. I only have 2 past cases of voting history to go on as of now. I also haven't really attributed any points towards good voting. But it's all I've got, besides my opinions.

If I make it back before the votes, count on me switching my vote from LS to a bandwagon I agree with IF my vote is alone AND I can use my vote to lynch someone on this list. I'm providing my %'s of everyone else if you are curious, not explaining them though because its 3 in the morning. Hope this helps understand my thoughts.

4. Gumdrop 33%
5. Silverarte 33%
6. Celestial 32%
7. Rsoultin 31%
8. Exo 30%
9. HTS 28%

On January 09 2015 11:58 Half the Sky wrote:

Finally as I have just mentioned with Tubesock and discussing Silverarte, I'd also like to see (when you are back in thread) some discussion of Rasputin's D2 activity.. You obviously think she is scum, so I would imagine there is some reasoning behind her current/latest actions where you feel that read has not changed.

So when you return I'd like to see that when you can.

On January 09 2015 12:21 The Shining wrote:

@Celestial, one townread is one townread. 2 townreads is a couple. Explain to me how 3 reads leaning town so early in the game is not a bunch? As I mentioned in the post you responded to, I've learned that Mafia, especially Day One, likes to hide behind those big posts with a couple of town reads to hopefully gain some credit. It doesn't escape me that your 3 Town reads were:
Trfel - NK. He didn't like your big post but never got to elaborate on you. Confirmed town.
ExO - Aside from me not liking his early attacks with too little follow through for my liking, most everyone here liked his play and the points he made. I'm almost willing to chalk it up to my newb play and meta bias from past games with him that I seem to be the odd one out but it's convenient that he's a Town read for you, too. It's almost too easy to sheep multiple players believing ExO is town.
Shining - Me. I had already been under suspicion for my questioning Soultin and HTS. It's another free town read for you as scum. Why were you one of the ones Town reading me for the same posts everyone else was scumming me? Because you expected my wagon to pick up more. Once I flip town, you can say "I told you so, guys, let's stop mislynching" and try to lead the discussion. Sort of what you did with WW. Although you didn't Town him, you did go "against" his lynch, somewhat. However, after looking at the Voting Thread and your filter, this troubles me:




See, you go from scumming WW to saying it has gotten worse. However, once WW's train received it's 3rd vote, you started backpedaling. Probably to have some deniability on the wagon you wanted to go through?





All of your "lynching WW is silly" was after the wagon already picked up speed. I've already explained why you'd throw away a vote as scum once the lynch already looks secured. Also, as EoD got closer, I asked my question about ties. At that time, it was WW's 4 to my 3. Your question was:



This was your opportunity to figure out if you needed to join one of the main wagons or not. If ties end in no lynch, you'd vote either WW or myself in order to ensure a town mislynch. Also, can I point out(since I filter-dove you pretty hard) that you also scummed Tube, but sheeped his WW read? It's quoted above but you said "I agree with Tube, WW isn't the best lynch for today."

And I just hit Celestial's massive post on my case. First, a case on LS when we've all beaten it to death and now me, pretty much the only other viable wagon besides yourself(who you can't vote) and LS(possible scum partner)? I guess I'd pick the easy way, too, if I were scum. Let me finish reading up but I'm interested to see how many of these bullets are parrots off of others. Also, you're scumreading me after I scumread you. Convenient.

More to follow after reading Celestial's case against me and everything after.