EPTBtw I just to poke fishgle
FoS fishgle
What do you think of my case. Why did he suddenly switch his read on you?
Newbie Mafia XL - Page 34
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nobodywonder
United States848 Posts
Btw I just to poke fishgle FoS fishgle What do you think of my case. Why did he suddenly switch his read on you? | ||
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Warent
Sweden205 Posts
On April 10 2013 03:38 nobodywonder wrote: Hi, nobodywonder here, I'll be here for about 30-45 minutes before I head to class. I'll be available from in about 3hrs then and get ready for the ultimate lynch then. So now I'll be rereading and taking questions. First thing, Warent, how did you read jrkirby as town? What kind of townie is he then? I read Kirby as town mostly because I disagree that his defense towards Jampi was faked - He claims to read Jampi as town at the time, and when I re-read the filters at least I agree that jarjar was a much better lynch than Jampi. Here he makes decent argument against a lurker with two or three horrible posts here - No reason for scum to prefer to lynch lurkers vs active players unless the cases are solid. + Show Spoiler + http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=405359¤tpage=19#370 The post below also makes sense to me. Kirby: It's not really the relevance of the questions. He had reasonable suspicion because there existed questions that had not been answered. It's enough excuse for him to make a case against rainbows. And just making a case against someone isn't a sure sign of scum. He made a reasonable case with poor persuasion. That's not a lynchable thing. Anyway I don't think he is scum. | ||
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Moloch
Canada222 Posts
On April 10 2013 04:15 nobodywonder wrote: jrkirby is scum. lynch him. There are many suspicious, I will guide you through the exhibits of scumminess first, the sudden town read. this is, by itself, not incriminating, but provides a very important contrast to his later quotes and actions. considering that jamp actually gets lynched, jrkirby does set himself up to look good. this is weird because, in contrast this correct single town read, all of jrkirby's other posts seem to insinuate that he doesnt know what he is doing. here are some examples: herp derp, you were absolutely correct on jamp as a bad town. why cant you find other bad town or scum. then. you easily somehow saw the difference when everyone else didn't and dun goofed. I really like your analysis in this part. Being completely sure of anyone's orientation on the first day is suspicious, since the only things you have to go on are how people have been interacting with other unknown people. But, that being said, Kirby also changes his opinion of jampi from mystery scum read to well-meaning, but incompetent townie. Says he's suspicious of jampi: April 6, 7:36 (and at 8:54, and 11:26 [specifies he wouldn't vote on a hunch here]) Rainbows vote for jampi: April 6 15:21 Smancer votes jampi: April 6 21:40 Obzy votes: April 7 2:44 Fishgle votes: April 7 2:49 I vote: April 7 4:04 Kirby recants his suspicion of jampi: April 7 4:32 Kirby claims jampi is town: April 7 7:34 (note: I didn't mark down unvotes) Yes, Kirby says his suspicions on jampi at the beginning, but I think the fact that he tries defending him after so many have voted for him at one point or another makes him look more town. Earlier Kirby admitted it was unfounded suspicion and he'd never vote on it, but If Kirby was scum, he could easily have just let it happen without saying anything and we'd be in the same spot we are now, but without any (as much) kirby suspicion. On April 10 2013 04:15 nobodywonder wrote: this quote especially concerns me. WTF, if the town going to lynch townie and especially since you gave a very strong town read, I expect you to fucking stop the lynch. I think if you defended the shit of him, that would have been the correct move - you would actually look even better than after a switch to another lynch, because for someone to stop a bandwagon on a townie shows the likely characteristics of a townie provided there is good reasoning. but instead you just let him die, this is too convienent since allows your mafia agenda. The last quote of yours that concerns you is the weakest part of your argument. He wrote that five minutes before the end of the day, and he actually had made a couple posts saying that he thought jampi was town after he was on his way to be lynched. He even tried calling out to me to try to get me to switch my vote at the last minute. These two points of your so far are conflicting. First you're saying that kirby is scum because he claimed jampi was town, then you say that he's scum because he didn't do enough to save jampi. I don't buy it. On April 10 2013 04:15 nobodywonder wrote: 2nd thing is terrible post history, he has a lot of filler that is not only useless, but also confusing... does not compute, really. no jargon or metaphor is necessary, just give a simple answer plz. I play SC2 and I don't know what a lurker is. :/ He was obviously making a bad metaphor. Just because you haven't played BW (or HotS campaign, apparently), doesn't mean he's scum. That being said, I'm not exactly sure what his metaphor is supposed to mean, either.... I'm ending this post here. I feel it's getting too long. I'll respond to the rest of your post soon. | ||
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nobodywonder
United States848 Posts
just quoting moloch, one part from his big post. lemme clarify, for the second part i meant kirby's scum because if he is town then he should have defended jampi more actively. but hmmm, i do now realize that part is rather weak. imma check that section again... as for the metaphor, lol yeah i actually have played BW, and terran is so much fucking hard. lurkers are so much fucking scarier than swarm hosts or any other zerg unit. /end digress. my point was simply that the metaphor is just filler post, and oh dont forgot that percentage post, that was deep... | ||
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nobodywonder
United States848 Posts
moloch, so are you leaning scum or town on jrkirby? obzy, you havent switched off moloch and onto jrkirby. how do you read moloch and jrkirby right now? since you seem to be good with town reads, i look forward to seeing your posts. | ||
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Warent
Sweden205 Posts
I know many of you have town reads on Rain now - but I do want to take a closer look at his claim and see what could have motivated it from a scum or town perspective. Please read and consider this. Motives for the claim from a scum perspective: Rainbow was set to be Lynched at the time, had he not claimed - he would probably go. If he is scum; fake claiming at that point is one of his best moves. These are the different outcomes: a) Claiming fails, he get lynched: No difference. b) There is a real vigi in the game who counter claims - it words against words - rain get lynched and mafia knows who the real Vigilant are. c) There is a real vigi in the game who counter claims: The counter claimer gets lynched - the real vigil is gone d) The lynched is stopped, someone else (town) gets lynched and the real vigi shots rainbow. Shot now used on someone who would have been lynched had he not faked claimed. Town loses one, scum loses one, and one power role loses its power. e) The lynched is stopped, there is no vigi in the game. Rain comes out looking like the good guy. So why not claim for example medic? On the surface claiming vigi seems to be one of the stupidest fake claims "because he will just get shot" and is thus more likely to be believed. But when looked at more closely it is motivated. Very good motives to fake claim vigi if you are set to be lynched. None of a-e would be worse for scum than a straight up scum lynch. Motives for the claim from a Town perspective: a) Claiming might stop the lynch Obviously a better town mindset would be to try to provide solid arguments instead, and some has pointed out that this was a stupid (not very motivated) claim from a town perspective. I've been trying to get some answers to why Rain wasn't killed by the Mafia, assuming the claim was real. The answers provided are. 1. There is also a roleblocker among the mafia so it is safe to keep him alive, and 2. Mafia would push for a mis-lynch on Rain on day two so we keep him alive. If you believe in the town theory you must believe in both 1 and 2. The flaws in number 2 is: Why kill Saraf then? He just wrote a major case against Rainbow before he was shot - he would most likely vote for a lynch towards him and perhaps even push it. And there are plenty of other good targets to try to get a mislynch on (!) If you are mafia and someone claims Vigi and if that someone is on the right track - you shot him. And also, why take the risk that we would lynch the roleblocker? Otherwise they will just effectively "lock" their role blocker onto one player instead of trying to block the medic for example. The are no good motives for scum to keep Rainbow alive - if the claim was real - does not fit Summing this up: - There are good motives for a mafia on the way towards a lynch to fake claim. There is nothing to lose and it's not a gamble. - There are no good motives for a Mafia to keep Rain alive if the claim was real. ##Vote Rainbows | ||
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Moloch
Canada222 Posts
On April 10 2013 04:15 nobodywonder wrote: Hmm, youre not very committed to lynching this Rainbows guy. This combined with your metaphor makes me rather unclear about your thoughts. You seem so far to suggest a policy of lynching stupid behavior. this is interesting too, since you later propose a conspiracy theory of rainbows, obzy and jjd being mafia at night. What you quoted was from merely hours after the game started. He writes the conspiracy theory you mention over forty hours later. Of course he he's not going to be very committed to lynching rainbows at the start because the game just began! On April 10 2013 04:15 nobodywonder wrote: now here is also a huge contradiction. this is after the night kill. how the fuck did fishgle randomly change from being a scumread to townread? this makes no sense at all besides a very obvious scumslip. just explain this? if you are town, it shouldn't be too hard, you should be able to clearly demonstrate his transition from scumread to townread. and for that matter, you should told us why he was a scumread in the first place and a town read later. also smancer smells bad? lol is he sweaty or what? where is your scumread, jrkirby? and why do you have to wait for someone to come to make a case and then bandwagon. this is weak stuff lastly you play the noob card too much. though i understand this is newbie game, if you just use the noob card so much, town just misregards your opinion, which is useless agenda if you're town, but very convienent if you're scum since you can just blend in. I would also really like to know how fishgle went from being scumread to townread. I don't particularly blame him for using the noob card, I've been tempted to use that as an excuse for feeling pretty clueless about stuff. That said, you're correct that it does water down opinions and help stay out of mind, so he should stop saying it. My opinions about fishgle based only on his posts today: + Show Spoiler + I agree with fishgle's points about not letting Obzy have a free ride. He says that kirby pushed town towards voting jampi, then backed off - which isn't true (unless saying you're suspicious of someone, but not enough to vote for them is pushing the town towards a lynch). I don't know whether he said that mistakenly or if he's trying to build up animosity towards kirby and hoping nobody checks out what actually happened. I don't have a strong opinion on him, but I don't see anything that would change someone's opinion of him as much as kirby's apparently has. Maybe kirby just likes being suspected? Or, on a darker note, maybe fishgle is on to something and kirby is hoping that by saying fishgle is town, fishgle will ease up on kirby and not push a kirby lynch too hard On April 10 2013 04:15 nobodywonder wrote: this is also too convienent for you to just come in and drop a vote without any scrutinizing. at this point, you are scum - all your actions fit the perfect mold of scum. ##Vote jrkirby die scum. I like the conviction you've ended with, but I feel I've debunked a couple of your points, so I don't agree that kirby is the best offering for lynching (Well, he could be, but I've spent more time looking at your argument than making my own, so I have a limited view on who is doing what other than kirby). Since kirby seems to be everyone's top pick (aside from me), I'm going to take a look at smancer and jarjar and see if I can find kirby's reasoning for suspecting them most. | ||
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jrkirby
United States1510 Posts
Jarjar has been on my case from day 1 though. And he's never posted a good case against me. He's barely posted against anyone else, and he's finally got a BW on me. Although everyone else has slightly better arguments. I guess you'll all see when I flip VT tonight. I guess this is kinda a OMGUS on him. [b]##VOTE: JarJarDrinks[b] Defences [spoiler] On April 10 2013 04:15 nobodywonder wrote: jrkirby is scum. lynch him. There are many suspicious, I will guide you through the exhibits of scumminess first, the sudden town read. this is, by itself, not incriminating, but provides a very important contrast to his later quotes and actions. considering that jamp actually gets lynched, jrkirby does set himself up to look good. this is weird because, in contrast this correct single town read, all of jrkirby's other posts seem to insinuate that he doesnt know what he is doing. here are some examples: herp derp, you were absolutely correct on jamp as a bad town. why cant you find other bad town or scum. then. you easily somehow saw the difference when everyone else didn't and dun goofed. this quote especially concerns me. WTF, if the town going to lynch townie and especially since you gave a very strong town read, I expect you to fucking stop the lynch. I think if you defended the shit of him, that would have been the correct move - you would actually look even better than after a switch to another lynch, because for someone to stop a bandwagon on a townie shows the likely characteristics of a townie provided there is good reasoning. but instead you just let him die, this is too convienent since allows your mafia agenda. 2nd thing is terrible post history, he has a lot of filler that is not only useless, but also confusing... does not compute, really. no jargon or metaphor is necessary, just give a simple answer plz. I play SC2 and I don't know what a lurker is. :/ Hmm, youre not very committed to lynching this Rainbows guy. This combined with your metaphor makes me rather unclear about your thoughts. You seem so far to suggest a policy of lynching stupid behavior. this is interesting too, since you later propose a conspiracy theory of rainbows, obzy and jjd being mafia at night. now here is also a huge contradiction. this is after the night kill. how the fuck did fishgle randomly change from being a scumread to townread? this makes no sense at all besides a very obvious scumslip. just explain this? if you are town, it shouldn't be too hard, you should be able to clearly demonstrate his transition from scumread to townread. and for that matter, you should told us why he was a scumread in the first place and a town read later. also smancer smells bad? lol is he sweaty or what? where is your scumread, jrkirby? and why do you have to wait for someone to come to make a case and then bandwagon. this is weak stuff lastly you play the noob card too much. though i understand this is newbie game, if you just use the noob card so much, town just misregards your opinion, which is useless agenda if you're town, but very convienent if you're scum since you can just blend in. this is also too convienent for you to just come in and drop a vote without any scrutinizing. at this point, you are scum - all your actions fit the perfect mold of scum. ##Vote jrkirby die scum. Jampi wasn't a bad town. He just made one bad case, and got lynched for it. I presented all the evidence I could to try to save jampi. I don't know why my defending him is scummy at all. The only reason I want to lynch stupid behaviour is because it looks like scum, and it helps scum. I was never very committed to lynching rainbows. At first I thought he was stupid, so I read that as scum, but after he claimed I realized that either he was going to die or he was just the stupidest vigi there was. Now he's just a terrible vigi. I'm bad at scumreads. This is my first game. I'll go with what I'm most confident on, and say what I'm thinking, but that doesn't make it right. Also, good case nobodywonder. If only you had put a case like this on someone who was actually scum. [/spoiler] [spoiler] On April 10 2013 04:40 Smancer wrote: Obzy, his case was good. And to be honest, I am ready to vote for jkirby as well, ##Unvote ##Vote: jkirby I pretty much have already built my case in the few posts before NW's case. My points were 1) His town read on you and saying he will vote Moloch if there is a case. 2) he is only going to vote for someone if he thinks town will follow him. 3) the amount of 1 liner responces / Lack of any content 4) his suspects me with no case. 5) he said he will "come back in a few hours to vote" this truely shows no sense of urgency for the town. Moloch has addressed my case against him, and I like how he did it. He also all but completely disproved my second point in my case against him, that is, the unvote of Rainbows. Whee! let's all ride the bandwagon! Honestly I'm busy with life. I have things to do. Sometimes I have time for a lot of one liners, and that's it. I suspected you with no case, but note, I didn't vote you with no case. [/spoiler] Maybe next game I'll be better at reads and be better at defending myself. I guess it's not over yet - I can still try to defend myself. Also a couple things to think about: if I'm scum, who am I with? Obzy? Moloch? Fishgle? theravensname? Probably not nobodywonder; his case on me was good. When I flip town who are you going to go after? Jarjar? Nobodywonder? I'd prefer jarjar, but honestly I think I'm I'm lynched it's too late for town. Suddenly you'll find it 4 against 3 and a single mislynch is death. You haven't even got vigi to save your asses because rainbows is stupid. All you have left is the doctor, who might get a save off if you're lucky. It's still one mislynch away from doom and three scum left. Anyone have any questions for me before you lynch me? Any at all? | ||
Obzy
United States525 Posts
##Unvote I still like the case against kirby. I'm feeling happier with Moloch since he's posting, and his logic is good too ^^ Moloch, if you were more active, you probably never would have left my happy townread group haha. You're making a revival atm but don't take that as a sign that it's okay to slow down or stop, because it definitely isn't. /crackwhip ^_^; At this point, I'm most content with a kirby lynch (last second edit before hitting post - i guess i'll vote on it) ##Vote jrkirby - I feel kiiiinda alright with a Warent lynch to be honest, but I don't feel we should do it today, it'd be very sudden. This is more of a general feeling - Warent just feels scummy. Like I look at his posts and I get that feeling. (No case though[yet], so don't bother thinking about it too much.) We've got four nonvoters, I'm very curious to see where they intend to place their votes - particularly Warent who reads kirby as town. Fish, get back here and chat for a bit -.-. You aren't a viable candidate today, but I want you to be talking about this because I value your input, and you obviously need to place a vote. | ||
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Warent
Sweden205 Posts
At first I thought he was stupid, so I read that as scum, but after he claimed I realized that either he was going to die or he was just the stupidest vigi there was. Now he's just a terrible vigi. Just want to point out what TRN said earlier about Rain, he was voted MVP in his two previous game - I don't think he is stupid - I think he is a decent actor. | ||
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phagga
Switzerland2194 Posts
VOTE COUNT: TheRavensname (1) Rainbows (1) jrkirby (4) JarJarDrinks, nobodywonder, Smancer, Obzy JarJarDrinks (0) Moloch (1) Not Voting: jrkirby, Fishgle, Moloch Deadline is in 2 hours. Voting is mandatory. Currently jrkirby is set to be lynched! If you see your vote (or anyone else') out of place please inform me or someone else on the hosting team so that we can correct it. | ||
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Moloch
Canada222 Posts
Your Mafia perspective is spot on. There was basically no downside to claiming at the point he was at. Your town perspective should include a #3 - The mafia assumed the medic would protect Rainbows, so they didn't want to waste their hit on him, and they knew they could roleblock him so he couldn't do anything anyway. Because of this newly added possibility, your claim that there is no good reason for Mafia to keep Rainbows alive is false, which weakens your argument by a lot. | ||
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Warent
Sweden205 Posts
At least READ and try to understand my analysis on the different perspectives on the claim above and I'll be happy. | ||
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nobodywonder
United States848 Posts
Since he claimed vigi and if he's town, he should definitely have calmed the fuck down. Instead he's focusing on Ravens so much, almost tunneling and it's not contributing to town atmosphere. However on the other side, Ravens is playing very weirdly and bad for town too. At this point, I still want to lynch jrkirby, but I definitely am considering Rainbows or Ravens on D3, depending on how jrkirby flips. @Moloch alright good analysis, I really look forward on what we can make out of Jarjar and Smancer. I'll be digging through filters and it would be awesome if we can post at similar times to contrast our thoughts on them. @Smancer still thinking of getting jrkirby, on the nobody's wonder girls wagon of kpop justice? | ||
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Warent
Sweden205 Posts
On April 10 2013 06:56 Moloch wrote: Warent, I've been thinking along the same lines of you, but I still feel there's a better chance he's telling the truth than not. Your Mafia perspective is spot on. There was basically no downside to claiming at the point he was at. Your town perspective should include a #3 - The mafia assumed the medic would protect Rainbows, so they didn't want to waste their hit on him, and they knew they could roleblock him so he couldn't do anything anyway. Because of this newly added possibility, your claim that there is no good reason for Mafia to keep Rainbows alive is false, which weakens your argument by a lot. #3 Is a good point, And I've been considering it. But medic wouldn't want to save Rain from the REAL vigilant trying to kill him. | ||
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nobodywonder
United States848 Posts
first thing first, explain how fishgle went from scumread to townread. this makes absolutely no sense at all to me, guide me through your thought process. btw you also dun goofed your vote. need to bold it with an EBWOP | ||
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Warent
Sweden205 Posts
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Moloch
Canada222 Posts
On April 10 2013 06:49 Obzy wrote: I'm feeling happier with Moloch since he's posting, and his logic is good too ^^ Moloch, if you were more active, you probably never would have left my happy townread group haha. You're making a revival atm but don't take that as a sign that it's okay to slow down or stop, because it definitely isn't. /crackwhip ^_^; I'm glad you like my logic! I'm here as much as real life lets me be, so don't worry about me disappearing again until next week-end (friend is coming in from out of town, there's a metal show I have to go to [GOATWHORE! YEAAHHH!] and it's the week-end after classes end, AND I have a full week before my first final, so I'll be pretty much constantly drunk the entire time) | ||
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nobodywonder
United States848 Posts
On April 10 2013 06:49 Obzy wrote: Sure, I can post. I've been curious as to what Moloch's final read is going to be. I don't intend to keep my vote on him any longer (unless he disappeared again) but given that me making this post guarantees he will return, it's not really something that I can hold in reserve any longer. ##Unvote I still like the case against kirby. I'm feeling happier with Moloch since he's posting, and his logic is good too ^^ Moloch, if you were more active, you probably never would have left my happy townread group haha. You're making a revival atm but don't take that as a sign that it's okay to slow down or stop, because it definitely isn't. /crackwhip ^_^; At this point, I'm most content with a kirby lynch (last second edit before hitting post - i guess i'll vote on it) ##Vote jrkirby - I feel kiiiinda alright with a Warent lynch to be honest, but I don't feel we should do it today, it'd be very sudden. This is more of a general feeling - Warent just feels scummy. Like I look at his posts and I get that feeling. (No case though[yet], so don't bother thinking about it too much.) We've got four nonvoters, I'm very curious to see where they intend to place their votes - particularly Warent who reads kirby as town. Fish, get back here and chat for a bit -.-. You aren't a viable candidate today, but I want you to be talking about this because I value your input, and you obviously need to place a vote. thanks obzy for being on the nobody's wonder girls wagon of justice. Right now, I'm assuming that jrkirby will be lynched, so are you thinking warent D3, and can you expand on a warent lynch? | ||
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jrkirby
United States1510 Posts
Also, my post messed up. ##VOTE: JarJarDrinks | ||
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