Was writing this over what ended up being the end of the day. Still want to post it, would like to see thoughts.
Not liking sn0_Man. Have put him aside based on his absence, other people having my interest, and a general feeling that I don't want to go after the first guy in a PYP game unless I'm sure he's scum. To some extent, killing off a super high picking townie seems slightly worse than a normal mislynch, although I'm not having that reservation with Shelvocke so I need to get over it.
I dug through sn0_Man's games. He has only played newbies, 4 of em, with 3 town and 1 game in which he replaced into a mafia player's shoes. With no further ado, I shall don my ObviousOne getup and present some findings.
(1) Above all else, sn0_Man seems to care about the game. He is invested in games. He often takes a "leader" role, trying to get people to do other stuff, questioning them, being contentious if need be. In one newbie game, he had some comments for the hosts about balance, indicating to me that he's invested in his games. Examining and questioning the balance of a game, more than just GG GAME UNBALANCES, shows a commitment to trying to play and win games and a commitment to...good mafia as a whole?
Some examples of this observation:
Cop in Newbie 36- Here is, right at the start of the day, a somewhat leader-y post. Responding to decent thoughts with his own, expecting more out of x, and dropping an instruction to town of what he would like to see - + Show Spoiler +
On January 26 2013 15:23 Sn0_Man wrote:
See, I wanted to make a similar post warbaby, but I wondered if maybe letting him dig a deeper hole wouldn't make more sense, as opposed to letting him know that he sounds scummy. However, I suppose if everybody just hung back and observed other's play we would end up with... nobody playing.
Either way, I expect substantially higher quality posts from Acid, and that particular one sounded a LOT like "hey look at me I'm getting in my post, hopefully I sound generically townie" from a scum perspective. Something about the post just sounds hollow.
Eh, its not enough to make judgements at this stage. To be fair to acid, his methods were pretty aggressive (and rightly so) last game, so defending that method of play makes sense.
Meanwhile: We need more posts overnight if I am to have any chance of making an informed vote before I disappear. I probably won't be able to post much later than 8-10 hours pre-lynch so posts and content PLEASE. There are only 9 people so it's pretty easy to see who is and isn't lurking. - Again, addressing large issues in that thread. Overarching thoughts on town claims, concerning over who is "taking over town," and instructions to thread - + Show Spoiler +
On January 27 2013 13:29 Sn0_Man wrote:
Town has no need to claim town, they ARE town. Actions speak louder than words. Town claims only make sense from a scum perspective, because scum need to look townie and/or not get lynched.
I'm not attacking you, and I'm not discouraging scumhunting. I'm discouraging town-claims (HI GUYS I"M TOWN CUZ I SAID SO. THAT MEANS YOU SHOULDN'T LYNCH ME), and I'm discouraging attempts to take over town by people who I don't have a town read on yet.
Either way, I'm also posting in the hopes that my posts will spark any kind of input whatsoever from the people who have yet to pipe up. If its like this ~12 hours from now I'll be forced to vote a lurker. - Look at the end of this bit of discussion. Actively notes that he appreciated someone posting as part of that, because he was looking for posts from them. Actively notes 2 players specifically that he wants more from - + Show Spoiler +
On January 29 2013 03:23 Sn0_Man wrote:Show nested quote +On January 29 2013 03:11 warbaby wrote:On January 29 2013 02:46 glurio wrote:and i really didn't like the vote post of cora especially the last sentence: On January 28 2013 03:59 cDgCorazon wrote:
I'll cover that base WB.
##Vote: Abenson
If these are the three mafia their coach must be ridiculously annoyed. Can't put my finger on it, but it really sounds scummy to me. I'll try to post more after cooking and eating dinner. That last sentence is weird. First of all is the setup error. Failing to understand the rules/setup is scummy. I'm also guilty of this. Second, why is he thinking about the mafia coach, and why is he even using the word coach after I got bonked by marv for mentioning coaching. Third, the sentence really doesn't help explain his vote at all, so it's a little odd that he included it in the first place. Finally, it looks like he was trying to spark setup speculation (and succeeding at it), which can be a way for scum to smokescreen/prevent more important discussion from taking place. ... Setup and rules misunderstandings are townie. Scum are in close contact with a scum coach who clears most of that stuff up for them, especially the number of scum rofl. What was scummy was Cora's blatant misrepresentation of the setup. I'll admit it was kinda like he was trying to spark off topic speculation and discussion, but FWIW the setup in the 2of4 game is really really simple so there isn't much speculation room. @glurio: There you go. More posts like that please. I'd rather not have to prompt you all the time, but that was a great start. @Slayalot (and Acid): JUST MAKE POSTS PLEASE - Here is a topic I'd like to discuss. Here are my thoughts. You guys chime in - + Show Spoiler +
On January 30 2013 00:23 Sn0_Man wrote:Show nested quote +On January 29 2013 20:15 zarepath wrote:On January 29 2013 15:30 warbaby wrote:On January 29 2013 14:09 cDgCorazon wrote:By voting, you are saying you want to lynch him today. Saying it 10 minutes into D2 is throwing in the towel. OK, fine. I can't come up with any reason you're wrong about this. I don't currently think Zare is scum, and he's telling me to do this as well. Noted.... I'll be looking through filters today between tasks at work, everybody's filter but warbaby for now. We are very focused on him right now as a town (not necessarily undeservedly) and I worry that too many are getting by without contributing because of that. Sure, but in the main they haven't contributed anyway. At this point, I've pretty much decided, we are lynching warbaby if I can make it happen today. I'm sure I can be convinced otherwise but at this point I don't see what evidence is really gonna come up that is worse than warbaby's play. What I would like to discuss right now is the night action. Remember that NOBODY DIED last night. The scenarios that I can think of for that are: A) Mafia shit the bed (pretty unlikely given that they have a coach), B) Both mafia members are/were inactive (Cakepie...  ) C) Town has a JailKeeper/Doctor who is a clairvoyant (this one seems the most likely). In the case of C, however, there is an interesting distinction between having a JK and a Doc. If we have a Doc, they have a confirmed townie on their hands, although that isn't necessarily that helpful. If we have a JK, then they know that their target is EITHER mafia OR the mafia target last night. But they can't be certain which. That again is interesting. I don't think B) could happen either, since Cakepie is the only TRULY afk player over the course of all of Night 1... although if anybody can come up with a plausible scumteam that was simply afk all night 1 I'm listening. - Concerned about a vote switch because of who would hold the hammer vote. Again, shows that he understands the game, is concerned about more than just who is scum, but how scum can use game mechanics - + Show Spoiler +
On January 31 2013 09:21 Sn0_Man wrote:Show nested quote +On January 31 2013 09:19 warbaby wrote:
Slayalot is the only acceptable alternative, IMO. I can't switch or else scum gets hammer vote sorry. Get zare/you/acid on slay and I'll accept that lynch today.
VT in Newbie 37- Asks warbaby to be less defensive, gives his thoughts on warbaby's spat with another player. Adds thoughts on another player with some "how might town/scum play" reasoning. Adds, again, a request for town to stop doing x and start doing y - + Show Spoiler +
On February 13 2013 02:36 Sn0_Man wrote:
@warbaby: Less defensive please. Sylencia did some reasoned analysis of your early play and came to conclusions. He didn't call you scum, he wasn't asking for your lynch, he was merely analyzing your play and that one statement.
Admittedly he hasn't done a ton of other stuff, but at the same time he certainly wasn't tunnelling you. I don't really see how you can construe it that way.
Regarding Mandalor, voting a lurker with more than a day left to lynch is a safe vote, not a pressure vote. Its a "well now that my vote is down I can go back to hiding and only change it if I need to" kind of vote. Admitting that it is a "pressure vote" also defeats the purpose (as Sylencia has pointed out). Town care about their votes, as votes are (generally) the only power they have. Scum want their votes to give away as little information as possible, to cheapen the very concept of a vote. It should be decently clear which of those two things random "pressure votes" are. Including some of the ones you have thrown around too.
I'd be more inclined to lynch Mandalor than Sylencia right now.
ALL THAT ASIDE, We are now 7.5 hours away from lynch (give or take). Idle chitchat time is over, we now need to begin our decision-making process on final voting. In some ways, I've seen enough posting that I could now be convinced to lynch a more active player. However, I still heavily prefer lynching somebody with low contribution, since that is still where scum can hide easiest. - Displeasure at town about voting/activity - + Show Spoiler +
On February 14 2013 01:07 Sn0_Man wrote:
Well, I'll bump the thread but I'm not too pleased.
I suppose I haven't articulated this quiet properly yet, but I'm really really displeased with how the vote turned out. Everybody voting for a different target is about the stupidest thing I've ever seen and it really ruined our chances of drawing good info from the vote. Since I don't have much to say anymore (Other than that you guys are colossal retards), I'm basically gonna wait for night actions to say much (unless anybody has something useful to say?). The fact that nobody has posted in 10 hours except the host isn't encouraging. - Doing LYLO/MYLO math. Thinking critically about whether a no-lynch is warranted. Again, an understanding of the game as a whole and a concern for more than just "DIS GUY SCUM!" - + Show Spoiler +
On February 15 2013 04:06 Sn0_Man wrote:
The 2 replacements are going to get lynched and NK'ed and we are gonna end up in much the same situation as if they were modkilled rofl. (okay we have more info hopefully).
Either way, what now becomes interesting is what happens tomorrow. It will be EITHER 5-3 OR 6-2 depending on setup. However, we can't know which. This is a fascinating situation because I think it may actually call for a no-lynch. Or at least, I don't know yet who I wish to lynch and a No-lynch is remarkably reasonable. In the 5-3 case we go down to 4-3, which is extremely risky but hopefully town should be able to locate the scum in such a situation. In the 6-2 case we go down to 5-2, which isn't even MYLO so town then has a safe mislynch. While town won't know, it doesn't seem that unreasonable.
Keep in mind that in the 3-scum case, mislynch tomorrow is GG. - Concerns about setup and game balance, counting mislynches to gg, etc. - + Show Spoiler +
On February 20 2013 02:25 Sn0_Man wrote:Interesting. GGWP all. I'm still dubious as to the balance behind this setup... On February 20 2013 02:50 Sn0_Man wrote:Show nested quote +On February 20 2013 02:36 Dandel Ion wrote:On February 20 2013 02:25 Sn0_Man wrote:Interesting. GGWP all. I'm still dubious as to the balance behind this setup... Why? I thought it was fairly normal. Mislynch twice, lose on the spot. Sure our analysis could have been better, but the fact is we basically have to let the SK live and hope he hits scum or else we just lose. Because 2 mislynches simply isn't enough space for town (especially newer towns). I mean, we get super-lucky to have our tracker hit an anti-town role on his first guess, and we still are in basically unwinnable position from N1 on. Maybe if our vet manned up and took a bullet somewhere? but even then scum had the RB to stop that. It hurts more that we had a Harmful-to-town role on our side (me the nosy neighbor) and a dumbed-down power role (tracker) instead of medic/JK/cop. I dunno, I just felt like town never had a real chance in this game. Closer to 1/10 than 1/3. Admittedly I'm biased and fresh off a loss, but this is what it looks like right now  On February 20 2013 03:11 Sn0_Man wrote:Show nested quote +On February 20 2013 02:55 Dandel Ion wrote:
Scum RB doesn't stop Vet. Vet is passive. Not to be a douche, but did you read the OP Dandel? This is the second time you have disagreed with what was openly stated in the OP. Show nested quote +On February 20 2013 02:55 Dandel Ion wrote:
Since the SK only shot once (and as I understand it, also tried to hit scum), you can pretend it was a vig.
Vig hits townie.
3 (effective) mislynches.
Vet doesn't get shot.
It was kind of a worst-case scenario for town, but shit happens. So if we pretend OO was vig, then you recommend we don't lynch the SK and just let scum RB the SK all day? I guess that KINDA turns him into a vig but a vig who doesn't actually want town to win... (with the semi-plus of vet status?). I just don't see how our only active power role hitting on his first try ends up as "Worst case scenario" for town Show nested quote +On February 20 2013 03:06 zarepath wrote:
My new policy lynch is to policy lynch Mocsta. Feels that way.
(2) He substantiates his scumreads. Not always, none of us do, but when he really wants to analyze someone, he generally does so within the context of definite posts, and his analysis refers to those posts.
Some examples of this observation:
VT in Newbie 35- Returns from a weekend AFK. Finds a post he dislikes. Quotes it, shows why he dislikes. Moves to the rest of his target's filter, identifies another post he dislikes, provides analysis of that post - + Show Spoiler +
On January 15 2013 02:08 Sn0_Man wrote:Alright, I'm finally caught up. Weekends are just not for mafia, sorry guys. This post is going to to a real review of what actually happened with respect to laguerta *not* getting lynched. We'll start at Noon, January 14th (Forum time). Laguerta has 7 votes: Mandalor, Omni, Glurio, Shz, Oats, Moc and Zare. Not long before this (okay an hour and a half but very few posts), Trotske posted this: Show nested quote +On January 14 2013 10:36 Trotske wrote:
I don't think laguerta is scum you guys are pushing a lynch claiming scum when he looks a lot more like a bad townie with no experience and is lazy.
what is with this bandwagon on someone who might as well be a lurker In fact a lurker would be a better lynch. I am going to keep my vote on the person who started this ridiculous vote. At 12:02, Oats unvotes laguerta after reading his filter, stating "I dont see scum doing this, I really dont." At 12:30, Omni unvotes laguerta due to "not enough of a fight from mafia..." At 12:32, zare unvotes laguerta agreeing how easy it has been to vote him. At 12:54, glurio unvotes laguerta agreeing about mafia's lack of defense. At 12:59, Mocsta unvotes laguerta agreeing with all the above. This is a fascinating snowball. Oats' unvote was due to "reading his filter" and while it isn't that well explained, is semi-reasonable. Omni unvotes strictly on the strength of mafia not backing up laguerta, which just isn't right. And so does zare. Any half-decent mafia WILL bus their teammates if they are as clearly awful as laguerta is. I’m not trying to claim that Omni or Zare are scum-oriented for doing this, I’m just saying their reasoning is flawed. Glurio immediately hops on the bandwagon of unvoting laguerta, and in the process also joins the lynch-mandalor (who turns out town) bandwagon. Trotske is, at the time, the only person with a vote on Mandalor. Last but not least, for no discernable reason Mocsta feels the need to swap over to Mandalor as well, sealing the deal (by a silly 3-2 vote o.O). That part is OK because I have come to expect an incredible amount of posts coupled with a complete inability to identify scum from Mocsta. Which sucks because it makes it hard to determine whether he is actively trying to be unhelpful or not. Right now I’m leaning towards just a clueless townie, since it seems like his heart is more or less in the right place right now. So, back on topic. Trotske’s filter is incredibly defensive of laguerta, and includes the hilariously awful post that I put up top. His first defense of laguerta is that he is a bad, lazy townie with no experience. Then the good part: Show nested quote + what is with this bandwagon on someone who might as well be a lurker In fact a lurker would be a better lynch. I am going to keep my vote on the person who started this ridiculous vote This is the scummiest thing I’ve seen posted all thread. He calls laguerta a lurker, then asks to lynch a different lurker. Then he calls the vote ridiculous after many others have given perfectly fine reasons for laguerta to be scum. Then he says that he is keeping his vote on the person who “started the vote (Mandalor, who at this point HAD NO OTHER VOTES). So my takeaways are: A) Laguerta really should have been lynched. B) He was, in fact, defended by the mafia: Trotske C) Trotske is my lead scum read. Oh yeah, the other thing is that if Trotske/zbezt/laguerta are in fact the scum team, which is my hunch ATM, then it actually looked like they were planning a bandwagon on me that never got started. Please understand that this isn’t an OMGUS, I’m merely looking at who defended Laguerta. Laguerta himself is clearly horridly incompetent and at least partially AFK so he wasn’t on that particular train. Zbezt ended up on me because he went to bed 6 hours before the voting deadline so wasn’t there to help out his buddy Trotske swap over to what was becoming an increasingly easy target: Mandalor. Obviously this is pretty thin but this is my current list of suspicions/scumreads and my evaluation of the voting that got innocent mandalor lynched. I’ll be more active through the week, but expect another fairly serious dropoff every weekend. Hopefully less bad than this one - Lots of analysis connected to someone else's enormous big read post. Moves on to the guy's votes. Ultimate conclusion is only that the guy MIGHT be scum, but a lot of work and thought process behind his read, you can see what he's thinking - + Show Spoiler +
On January 16 2013 01:30 Sn0_Man wrote:
Alright, I'd like to go over zare's mass review, which was posted pre-NK as a "last will" type post. My comments in bold
On January 15 2013 06:24 zarepath wrote:I am posting all of my reads right now because I'd like to do so before the end of N1 and I'm not confident that I'll be around/have the time to do so closer to the deadline. These are reads, not full claims, and so I welcome any argument/discussion about them. But they're all based on me reading through the entire thread, and the entire filter for each person. Hi guys I've contributed nothing but I'm totally worried about being NK'd for no reason that I can think of. Probably worried about being Vigi'd? Dunno but this post seems a bit weird. Not seriously off though, I can see townie zare writing thisShz + Show Spoiler +
Null read. Point for him is that he kind of tried to pull Oats and Mocsta apart from each other early on, and I think scum would have been happy for them to go at it. Although, that's an easy thing for scum to do. Meanwhile, a lot of his posts are very emotional or exagerrative, using words and phrases like "constantly," "baffled how people," "just that ignorant?", and he's obsessed with Mocsta's victim mentality. Another point for him is he's encouraged rational play a couple of times in the thread. Will watch.
Laguerta + Show Spoiler +He just seems very rough, and very inactive, but not in a tone that seems to imply intended inactivity, but one of pure laziness. It's clear he did not work very hard at his contributions Day 1, and that, combined with the ease of the Laguerta Lynch, suggests to me that he is TOWN. Sn0_Man + Show Spoiler +
His inactivity immediately puts him on the side of scum, then he has a full "review post" of the chaotic final hour of the lynch. His cases have not been rigorous, his biggest case (against Troske) involves a lot of association and hypothetical scenarios. But he's the only one really pushing Troske and it does seem like he's trying to figure things out. I don't see enough to put him firmly in one camp or the other, so I consider him someone to watch.
Oats + Show Spoiler +
I voted for him yesterday, but after going through his filter today, he oddly seems to be the most valuable townie we have right now. He has pressured more people than anyone else, which HAS led to discussion. I don't see scum motivations for his behavior other than the free use of his voting power, and erratically switching it around until he finally liked where it rested. That seems to fit with his play style, however, so I don't think that is enough for a scum read, even along with the fact that he was immediately aggressive towards Mocsta -- that seems to be a trend in this game, and it's not necessarily unwarranted. Feels like TOWN
On January 14 2013 12:35 zarepath wrote:
##Vote Oatsmaster
Has not been helpful towards town, was an active scum player in another game (so not necessarily a lurker scum), has unvoted FOUR times, most recently very late in the day when it was almost assured that Laguerta would be lynched regardless. His reasoning? "He's scummy but he's not here to defend himself. I'm gonna go vote for someone that nobody else is voting for and will definitely not get lynched, so when Laguerta flips town, I look good." (Okay, so not his literal read, but a possible motivation was thrown in there.)
His timing and his lack of reasoning worry me, and I find him to be far more likely to be scum than Laguerta.
Now back to his full review
On January 15 2013 06:24 zarepath wrote:Mocsta + Show Spoiler +
Has been as active as I would expect based on his meta, but he is a lot more defensive this time around. After reading filters, I would suggest that's because there are people here deliberately pushing his buttons. It's frustrating how his various defenses clutter the thread and half the time are filled with re-quotes of himself or others, and then there's also the fact that his vote sealed Mandalor's doom. However, I don't find it likely that mafia would switch their vote so that the FINAL vote for a lynch is one of their own. That does not seem like good scum play -- although as I noted earlier, if he were scum and resting his vote on Laguerta even after Oats yelled at him, that may look more suspicious. Perhaps he HAD to vote for Mandalor. However, he'd already suspected Mandalor earlier in the day. So I would not call him a confirmed town, but I still have an overall TOWN read on him.
OmniEulogy + Show Spoiler +OE has largely been a voice of reason this game when the last game he seemed a lot more emotional. Part of me worries that he was intending to be reasonable as soon as he becomes mafia, but his contributions have all been town-motivated from my perspective. He has pressured people, defended others fairly well, and done some thorough analysis. I have a slight TOWN read on him. Trotske + Show Spoiler +
I like that he called Acid out on trying to provoke emotion in the thread, as well as Snoman, and that he was the first on Mandalor (even though he was obviously wrong, he didn't a ride a bandwagon on the way there, unlike some others). He reads as a noob, and went out of his way to defend Mocsta's opening questions near the beginning. However, he has a low post count, went out of his way to criticize bringaniga multiple times (easiest target for the first half of the day), and just had bad voting logic (as snoman pointed out recently). He feels TOWN to me, but will warrant observation as he posts more and hopefully does some more analysis.
Acid + Show Spoiler +
Acid is very confident, and when he posts, it doesn't seem as though he's lurked as much as he has. However, everything he's posted has been very narrow-focused and antagonistic -- needlessly so. What gets me is his comment that Mocsta can't ask him any questions until Mocsta contributes more. Withholding information is pretty scummy, and his tunneling of Mocsta, the most active townie when we have around 5 lurkers, seems exactly like the kind of thing scum would want to do. It's not hard to push Mocsta's buttons and he's not alone in going after him, so it's a pretty safe thing to do. His reactions lack rigor; he's "baffled" by sno's vote. The number one thing that makes me think he is mafia is the fact that the time he was tunneling Mocsta the hardest was during the final hours before the lynch, when everyone is switching their votes, analyzing cases, trying to make new reads. What is Acid up to? Tunneling Mocsta, when Mocsta is nowhere near a lynch. He's not even trying to get others to vote for Mocsta, he's just going after him. Reads as SCUM to me.
zebezt + Show Spoiler +
He also called out unwarranted hostility in the thread, which is a town-motivated thing to do, but then suggested that other people ask questions instead. He didn't provide the questions, just said that other people should. He did a fairly interesting analysis of snoman and actually asked some discussion Q's of some people, which feels kind of townish. But he was one of those to take the easy road in pressuring bringaniga, he soft claimed on not having read scum guides, went out of his way to mention that someone would be modkilled (a non-contribution with no analysis), and went out of his way to take credit for his pressure on bringaniga earlier in the day (even though it was the easiest target in the world). I have a slight SCUM read on him.
glurio + Show Spoiler +
He calls Mandalor scum but he's "not quite certain" after reading the filter -- an accusation without committing to the accusation. He easy-picks Laguerta, lurks hardcore, continues to be suspicious of Mandalor without providing analysis or voting for him, calls Oats scummy a couple times without any analysis other than the fact that he's voted a lot (I did that too, of course), but finally switches from Laguerta to Mandalor ONLY AFTER it's clear that the town is leaving Laguerta. If the LAguerta lynch happens and he's still on it, he knows he's in trouble, so the reasoning for his switch? "mafia doesn't defend" The timing was very suspect, and set things up such that Laguerta could still be lynched without his vote staying there, and if someone moved with him onto Mandalor, that person would get the fall (Mocsta).
He's offered zero analysis, represented zero conviction with his votes, and his vote pattern looks the most suspicious to me of all of what happened yesterday. He also lurks hardcore. He is my number one SCUM read.
bringaniga/Spag + Show Spoiler +
I secretly hoped that bringaniga really had some algorithm because that would've been hilarious. Spag has seemed quite helpful since he's returned. AS this is essentially Day 1 for him, I have a NULL read until I see more, but nothing so far has smacked of scum.
Okay, so zare manages to review pretty well without coming off as overtly scummy anywhere. In fact, I agree with many of his reads. I still think that he hasn't contributed much and spent a lot of time sheeping, especially since few of his reads are terribly insightful (I'm aware none of mine have been either).
Now, to examine zare's votes.
[spoiler=Vote 1]
On January 14 2013 02:36 zarepath wrote:
##Vote Acid~
I am voting for a lurker for a couple of reasons:
1) If they haven't found reason to post yet, a push to lynch them had better; otherwise, we know that they will NEVER post
2) While I like to think scum would have posted by now, last game proves that isn't necessarily true; the worst lurkers are just as likely to be scum.
3) I worry that lurkers who are let go will continue to taint reads for the rest of the game -- the possibility of them being scum will always be in the back of town's minds, and scum can get away with "pressuring" them as a "contribution," and the thread will be stuffed full of lurker pressuring and absent of the lurker's discussion.
4) We will be absent of their contributions either way
5) Scum will know they can't get away with super-minimal contribution, and that the town is aware of how much they participate, potentially forcing them to post more
That's what's going through my head. I want to avoid getting wrapped up in the stupid OMGUSing and encourage others to be active in the thread. Right now the best way I see to do that is to punish the person who is contributing the least, and through inaction, acting directly against the town. [/spoiler]
He starts off, 10 hours before lynch, with an Acid vote. His reasoning is: LAL, basically. He carefully got on the same lurker that Omni had voted (Omni's reason: I forgot about No Lynch). So far, a safe vote but not necessarily a scummy one. He made sure to justify this with a bunch of high and mighty town chest-thumping, but that isn't strictly scummy either.
[spoiler=Vote 2]On January 14 2013 11:25 zarepath wrote:
I'm voting for Laguerta because of his inability to pick someone to vote for. Feels pretty scummy, and I haven't had a chance to do real thorough reads today. (NO, goverment didn't confiscate my laptop today, but Sundays are generally my least-available days.)
##Unvote Acid~
##Vote Laguerta
Acid will be modkilled, and while replacing him isn't necessarily a good thing, we do know Laguerta is spineless. So, there it is. I'll be doing a more thorough filter read N1. [/spoiler]
Next up, he swaps to laguerta. With 0 posts between the 2 votes, but about 9 hours separating them, he quickly jumps on the current bandwagon. His reasoning: acid will be modkilled (untrue at that point, but could be an honest) and laguerta is spineless. How is "spineless" a townie reason to vote somebody?. Shortly after this he mocks Oats for posting something along the lines of "Scum are traditionally around at the deadline" (something that zare is carefully being), then starts calling off the laguerta train with a defense along the lines of: "7 votes are too easy, mafia must be on this train". This is part of what ends up saving laguerta so that we can lynch innocent mandalor, and this is also totally something a scum could say. "Mafia must be on this train, let me get off of it" is not necessarily right (again, I believe that if laguerta were mafia, his team would bus him if needed. He is clearly pretty useless. This attempt to save only comes around once Trotske has finished being highly irrational and the laguerta train is coming screeching to a halt.
[spoiler=Vote 3]On January 14 2013 12:35 zarepath wrote:
##Vote Oatsmaster
Has not been helpful towards town, was an active scum player in another game (so not necessarily a lurker scum), has unvoted FOUR times, most recently very late in the day when it was almost assured that Laguerta would be lynched regardless. His reasoning? "He's scummy but he's not here to defend himself. I'm gonna go vote for someone that nobody else is voting for and will definitely not get lynched, so when Laguerta flips town, I look good." (Okay, so not his literal read, but a possible motivation was thrown in there.)
His timing and his lack of reasoning worry me, and I find him to be far more likely to be scum than Laguerta.
[/spoiler]
Now he is voting Oatsmaster. Not only is Oatsmaster the guy that got NK'ed night one, but his reasoning is "multiple vote flips" (welcome to the club zare). All of his reasoning on Oats applies to him, and this vote looks pretty scummy to me. He tries to start something on Oats because as scum he would LOVE to see a random 3-2 lynch save their NK for somebody whose NK would give up less info. Note how this is completely opposite his previous reasoning of LAL, as Oats is super-active. Also note how contrary this is to his N1 "reads" post above. A convenient flip flop that he tries to explain away, showing that he is afraid of how it looks.
And that is that for Zare. Long ass post I know. Not that my post is terribly cohesive or that it avoids "association cases" but this is what I think of zare right now. Much of what he has done could be explained as scum, and he certainly hasn't pressured anybody in a way that makes me think town.
Cop in Newbie 36- Grabs onto a discussion of votes/wagons. Actual thoughts on what scum might do in the situation. Finds people who meet those, and adds what connections he can draw between them based on their possible flips - + Show Spoiler +
On February 01 2013 01:42 Sn0_Man wrote:Show nested quote +On January 31 2013 09:24 cakepie wrote:
What do you guys think of as the better alternative, glurio or slayalot?
I was willing to get behind warbaby's vote on glurio, but things moved too quickly.
(Basis: voting patterns)
In any case I am not willing to be on either the cora or warbaby wagons. This post occured shortly after my cop claim. I'd like to highlight it. At this point there were (I think, since we didn't have any votecounts) 4 on warbaby, 3 on Cora, 1 on Slay. Or something similar. Actually, Cakepie may have not voted at all, leaving it at 4-3 at that stage. Either way, I'd like to point out that right about here is where a scum would have done something like "OMFG LOOK AT DAT WARBABY SCUMMY AS HELL LETS VOTE HIM". Not being willing to be on a wagon is very townie. Scum are generally desperate for easy wagons to park their vote on, especially when warbaby and cora are both town. This actually narrows it down to (IMO) 3 possible scum candidates right now: Acid, Glurio and Slay. Now, if Slay is mafia, then so must be glurio (otherwise the votes make no sense, why would acid lynch a scumbuddy when he could totally have hammered WB with ease?. If slay is NOT mafia, then acid and glurio are the scumteam. EITHER WAY, GLURIO IS SCUM. As far as I'm concerned, Glurio is scum.
(3) Often asks targeted questions at specific folks, but sometimes adds open questions that further discussion
Some examples of this observation:
VT in Newbie 35- Asking for "detailed" reads on 3 people, provides minor thoughts of his own on two - + Show Spoiler +
On January 16 2013 03:59 Sn0_Man wrote:
I'd ask what other people think of
1) OmniEulogy. He compliments everybody (except oats) and is never willing to really present deep analysis except once, his clearly wrong case on Oats. He looks like he wants to be everybody's buddy.
2) Spag.
3) zebezt: His entire filter consists of: "Sn0_Man wont answer me. I think he is scum because he didn't like Mocsta's opening question and then went AFK" and "Mocsta OMG ur so right lemme restate ur posts"
To clarify, I'd love some sort of DETAILED reads on ANY of those 3 based on serious perusal of their filter (and in spag's case, take a glance at the bringaniga filter too).
This post is growing too long and some of these can be found in point (4) below. The open questions mix with the conversational attitude, and also somewhat with the leader-y stuff, "Town, I'd like you guys to do this/discuss this..."
(4) He is ... conversational. He does not dip in and out, but he responds to thoughts, explains himself, pushes things further.
Some examples of this observation:
Cop in Newbie 36- After calling out cora here, cora responds. sn0 responds to the response, with an answer speaking to cora. Asks others for thoughts on the exchange - + Show Spoiler +
On January 29 2013 01:01 Sn0_Man wrote:Show nested quote +On January 29 2013 00:49 cDgCorazon wrote:
Sn0 you can chalk it up to me not looking at the link to the set-up. Once the game starts, I don't look at the pregame posts too much. I made another mistake of not reading when I said Mocsta was a replacement when he actually isn't. I'm asking you to call it a mistake based off of ignorance, nothing more. I just gave a bunch of reasons why I don't think that ignorance is a real excuse for that particular mistake. That being said, it is obviously POSSIBLE for you to be ignorant, I just find it unlikely that YOU of all people would actually make a setup mistake that basic. @Town: I'd like to hear thoughts on this. He already played a 2scum9player setup just like this one (his last game), and he co-hosted a game. Plus I gather he has a history of being very well informed/inquisitive regarding setup etc. Show nested quote +On January 29 2013 00:49 cDgCorazon wrote:
I would like to see a last will from Sn0, WB, Acid, and whoever else feels like they need to make one. I'm going to be very busy today, but I'll post some thoughts closer to the deadline. I'll be dropping something akin to a last will near the night deadline, and while I encourage the others to as well, I find it somewhat hard to believe that somebody not named Sn0_Man, cDgCorazon or Warbaby might get NK'd. Take that for what you will.
VT in Newbie 37- Conversational tone. Asking what someone wants to do, asking them to substantiate, in a very buddyish tone. Plus follow-up conversation - + Show Spoiler +
On February 13 2013 04:22 Sn0_Man wrote:@Mandalor: You unvoted the 0-poster, who would you like to lynch right now? You don't have to vote them, but lets hear some reasons etc. It can be a "Lynch Scum" plan or a "Lynch Lurker" plan. Whatever seems right to you. I know this may take time to make a real choice, but the lynch is coming up quicker than you know so lets hear some scumhunting now On February 13 2013 04:41 Sn0_Man wrote:Show nested quote +On February 13 2013 04:34 Mandalor wrote:
Right now, I would vote Sylencia.
His response so far hasn't changed anything for me concerning his odd behavior with warbaby. WB never soft-claimed anything - yet Syl gives us this odd post saying he's most likely vig or scum. That is the opposite of helpful for town. I can't think of a use for this information at this point in the game. Elimination surely can't be it when we don't know any role yet.
That combined with his uncharacteristic (I think? at least have that in my mind) lurking (yeah yeah I know, but I have posted more here than I did in any game yet) makes him my top scum read for now.
If nothing big comes up that will be my vote for tonight (will probably have to vote in 4 or 5 hours and call it a day). There we go! See, I can think of an explanation for most of what Syl is doing, but I'm not going to call you out if you can't. I think WB soft-claimed, but I can definitely see how others think he didn't. I like you you picked a name, gave a real reason that was consistent with your earlier posts, and didn't even need to make it too long. Obviously this doesn't prove you are town but it certainly helps your chances of not being lynched today. For now, I won't ask more but keep in mind that we expect more of THIS POST as often as is reasonable for you to manage (I know its time consuming).
So again. He hasn't played many games, but he's concerned with balance. When MYLO/LYLO is and whether it's best to no-lynch. When votes occur. What town/scum players would do in certain situations. He's concerned with things beyond just posts. He often talks to other players, rather than dropping his thoughts in thread and leaving, he interacts. He often interacts as a leader, or at the very least he makes his wishes known as to what he thinks that thread should do.
His filter from his only scum game - Here.
He replaced in, but I get a LACK of the following townsn0 things in that game.
Scum RB in Newbie 38
- Scumreads don't come with the same "here's a post I found" --> analysis --> conclusion substantiation. + Show Spoiler +
On March 14 2013 00:47 Sn0_Man wrote:
Alright, I've finally made it through the whole thread.
Some players have kinda piqued my interest as scummy right now.
First, Geript. Day 1, town starts slow but warms up, gets focused and nails scum with a solid-contributing atmosphere where certain players stick out like sore thumbs. THIS IS THE TOWN ATMOSPHERE WE NEED. Then geript replaces in, and the nutter-butters start. Fast forward to the end of day 2 and we have lynched a townie, discussion is dying and there is a lot of uncertainty in the thread (my take on it at least). It isn't like geript created the mislynch, or made any scumslips, but in my eyes he poisoned the atmosphere enough to cloud town's perceptions. I can't really see this as anything other than scummy. Note that he replaced CoS who did very little but managed to look scummy in that time as well.
Next, OmniEulogy. Yes, it certainly feels like omni has contributed a lot, but I'd contend that he has simply posted a lot. As others have said, he spent day 1 soft-defending Arctic Daishi (scum), spent day 2 pushing a mislynch really hard, and has just struck me as off throughout my read-through. Reads slightly scum but less so than geript.
Most of the rest of the thread were releasing strong newbie vibes that interfered with my ability to seriously read them (on a casual read-through). I'll work on individual filters over the course of the next 30 hours or however long we have and try to give opinions on others but those 2 really stuck out.
PS: Krafla is looking kinda sketchy too with his claims but I'll have to re-read the OP and figure out what the hell he's claiming. - Any posts asking the thread to do something are less assertive/leader-y. See the end of this post, there's much less direction, and it's not "Hey thread, you have been doing x which is bad and we need to be doing y now." It's "everyone talk about this thing that is kind of a side issue." - + Show Spoiler +
On March 14 2013 01:07 Sn0_Man wrote:
Ehhh... There is something to be said for claiming 1-shots since Krafla certainly never expected to be anything other than a green after he claimed. The fact that he was roleblocked (by mafia?) was horrendously unfortunate but shouldn't affect the theory behind it. I'm not sure that there is that much real value to a pre-claim like that but I also don't see any huge cost (1/10 chance or something like that).
Repeating roles probably shouldn't claim until it is either A) saving their ass or B) nailing scum.
PS: Only 1 person claimed roleblock last night? So either both the RB and the JK targetted the same person (Krafla, if we believe him) OR the RB/JK prevented the other RB/JK from happening (didn't happen based on Krafla), OR either the RB or JK was a 1 shot affair (seems dumb to spend that night 1...?)
I'd like to hear what other people think of the RB scenarios. Unless somebody hasn't claimed being RB'ed yet? - Shows concern with outside-the-game rules regarding referencing ongoing games. This post is also like...part leader-y, part scumread-y, but in a different way. He's gives his thoughts, says what he's going to do, but not in a conversational style, he doesn't furthering anything outside of promising activity later, ... just read it - + Show Spoiler +
On March 14 2013 23:36 Sn0_Man wrote:Show nested quote +On March 14 2013 21:08 Frorgon wrote:On March 14 2013 11:32 Sn0_Man wrote:
At this point I really want to hear some kind of defense out of omni before I continue researching him. He hasn't had any real pressure on him previously so this ought to tell us a lot. On the other hand, he scrubbed out of my last mafia game with him due to PC issues so who knows whats up...
I have a few problems with this post. One being that you want some defense from Omni before you research him. Don't wait for the defense, do research first, make a case, then ask for a defense. Back it up with a vote. If you're not gonna research anything before you hear a defense, why should Omni stop lurking? Also, I'm pretty sure referencing past games in this thread is a no-no and WoS was already warned for doing it. Referencing ONGOING games is taboo. Past games are legit. Feel free to PM a host to confirm. I'm still not 100% sold on Omni being scum, so I want to hear him defend himself. I then want to go through his filter in light of his defense and try to poke holes in it. I'd say that we have enough accusations in front of him that if he DOESN'T respond its probably correct to just lynch him. Digging through his filter and deciding that he looks townie doesn't help because again, it is absolutely not my job to deflect pressure from another player. They need to stand up to it and show us who they are. In other news, it looks like some consolidation is happening, which is good. I'll read through the cases in a bit. I never vote without very serious intent to lynch. At this point I don't feel like I can say with certainty who we should lynch today so I'm not voting until I'm reasonably sure. I still feel like somebody has got to be responsible for the mislynch yesterday and you are going to have a hard time convincing me that that is MLuneth... (I still think it's either geript for mucking up the thread or, as others are pointing out, Omni but he won't defend himself...) Actually, it feels a bit like Omni is getting out of this lynch by... being afk? :/ So we target somebody else because they respond... (admittedly, MLuneth seems to be digging himself a hole every time he opens his mouth). PS: I haven't made any real cases because I wanted to experience how all of you are playing in real time. Re-reading the thread and/or simple filter-diving leaves out a lot of important context. As I feel like I'm getting a better grip on players I feel like I can make decent cases that have a real chance of nailing scum. - His only real case as scum. Identities a post, looks at the guy's vote, analyzes. A lot of the analysis is...very pointed though. Accuses the guy of "posting silly garbage," playing the noob card, blatant sheeping, garbage again, throwing crap, "okay bro, thanks" (when the guy he's building a case on asked sn0 to post). Note that the conclusion is still kind of wishy-washy. I want to lynch this guy (not his case), think the guy I made a case on is more scummy than the lead vote-getters, will revisit when I return. Lack of conversation, lack of follow-up - + Show Spoiler +
On March 15 2013 01:53 Sn0_Man wrote:Alright, after going through some filters, I noticed something funny. Bduddy, who has done stone nothing all game, has received a completely free ride. Day 1, he lurks around and is "busy IRL" (often true but also often a scum excuse to lurk). He eventually gets on the popular wagon after AD essentially scum-claims. After day 1 he has successfully blended in and looks pretty null. Night 1, he posts some silly garbage about ##Unvoting and stuff, no real contribution ("Saving it for the day" or some garbage). Day 2, he is quick to cast suspicion on a perfectly legitimate blue-claim by Krafla. When there is an uncontested blue claim, that is a pretty easy confirmed town since it's pretty suicidal to false-claim there as scum. Bduddy doesn't want Krafla's claim to be accepted, despite the fact that it is an uncontested blue claim. Thats REALLY scummy. Beyond that, Bduddy feels the need to post things like this: Show nested quote +On March 10 2013 11:26 bduddy wrote:
The main difference was that CoS posted nothing, AD posted scummy posts. CoS definitely needs to remain under suspicion, but it's possible at this point that he's just away from the Internet for some reason. Cluttering up the thread with comments on somebody who just replaced out. Admittedly this could be a simple mistake but it still doesn't look very good. Next up, bduddy's day 2 vote: Show nested quote +On March 11 2013 06:35 bduddy wrote:On March 11 2013 06:20 WaveofShadow wrote:On March 11 2013 06:19 bduddy wrote:On March 11 2013 06:04 Frorgon wrote: Especially considering that the roleblock was not likely placed on the mafia. How do you get that? The mafia almost certainly chose to kill someone last night - the only reason they didn't is that they were roleblocked. This game doesn't have a doctor. Or if the roleblocker was able to RB the mafia with kill power, the mafia roleblocker would use that information to roleblock him and ensure that the kill goes through next time. All mafia have kill power in this game (read the PMs). Unless there's only one mafia left, which is highly unlikely, it's not going to be the same guy killing next time. Yes, I know that someone who claimed town RB right now would obviously become a mafia target, but if we get a mafia out of that I think that's a good trade for us. Wrong, bduddy. Chances are very slim that we have both a RB and a JK; that would most likely be imbalanced. The JK protected me (I was roleblocked) which is why there was no kill last night. ...yeah, that does make sense as well, I had forgotten about your post. Sorry for acting like such an idiot, I'm just not used to playing with roles like this (or serious Mafia games at all, really). Considering that all of my other cases have been shit, I'm starting to come around to the arguments about MeatlessTaco. In fact, until he comes up with some good answers, ##Vote: MeatlessTaco
First, he plays the noob card. "Im sorry i'm bad and my cases are bad don't hold me to standards just let me be useless to town"... Next, Blatant sheep: "I trust you guys my cases are bad here let me sound legit as I put my vote on a Town player" What kind of garbage is that? He never even attempts to justify this vote, he just leaves it there while also pointing fingers at virtually half the thread with posts like: Show nested quote +On March 11 2013 06:52 bduddy wrote:On March 11 2013 06:41 geript wrote:
@bduddy You were the one to initially bring up the OE defenses of Artic. You ALSO brought up how OE wasn't really trying to push his Taco case. Do you not like my case vs OE?
Don't worry, I'm still keeping my eye on OE - we have time, after all. But MT's posting has just been terrible in general, and I want to see what he has to say about the accusations against him. And Show nested quote +On March 11 2013 10:43 bduddy wrote:
I mean... Matriarch also is by far the worst lurker left. If she comes back in a similar manner as AD, well, hopefully we can end up with the same result (unless scum/AWOLs mean we can't switch fast enough...) Then, Show nested quote +On March 11 2013 15:13 bduddy wrote:On March 11 2013 14:05 Rainbows wrote:
I'd rather lynch Geript than OE. We should also kll MLuneth gogogo vote him. ...WTF is up with you? I know you've been active (occasionally) and tried to provoke responses out of people, but you're getting ridiculous at this point, and I don't mean ridiculously helpful. Nowhere is he trying to push a read, he's just throwing shit everywhere. And nobody calls him out on it anymore (after his previous "I'm so sorry I noob let me sheep plz" vote on taco everybody was content that he had his vote down... derp). Immediately after the mislynch he is super-eager to get matriarch mod-killed instead of replaced, with posts like Show nested quote +On March 12 2013 10:48 bduddy wrote:
Going by the rules Matriarch has to be modkilled, so that will also be... somewhat useful, at least. and Show nested quote +On March 13 2013 02:45 bduddy wrote:I don't want to try to get too much into the motivations of the host, but it seems more likely that he would refuse to modkill Matriarch if she was mafia Its fairly clear that Bduddy is a bit over-interested in getting people mod-killed instead of a more town-favoured replacement (modkills are statistically more likely to harm town than help them). Since then, he has made a total of 5 posts. The first was "Sn0_man make posts plz". Okay bro, thanks for the tip... :/ The next 2 were yet another blatant attempt to discredit our uncontested blue claim... (seriously, scum don't blue-claim like that. It makes no sense). The last 2 took an entire day to make between them... one was trying to describe Rainbow's silly vote on geript as "Pressuring" MLuneth... basically not a post. The last one was this: Show nested quote +On March 14 2013 15:02 bduddy wrote:
I agree with Rainbow's case on MLuneth, his last post was just ridiculous. His AD "coin flip" vote seems suspicious to me (an easy way to say "but I voted for him early!" (ed. note: saying you're voting for someone because of a coin flip and then quickly switching is not a good way to "pressure" someone) and his last post just makes absolutely no sense in the context of what he actually did D1. He never switched his vote back to AD, and has been defending OE (who I'm still very suspicious of) for the whole game. Also, he hasn't contributed particularly much in general; his incredibly weak "case" on geript is based mostly on more OE defending and the fact that he voted MT... you know, like most of the rest of the town.
##Vote: MLuneth Back to sheepville where he basically copy+pastes the highlights of rainbows case and calls it a wrap. Calls out MLuneth for making a weak case despite not having made any real case since... Day 1. Happy to park his vote on what is clearly the going wagon at the moment. This just strikes me wrong. At this point, I'm having a hard time really deciding who I think is most likely to be scum. Really, I'd like to lynch geript today for blatantly shitting up the thread, but that clearly isn't going to happen. I honestly think Bduddy is more likely to be scum than either Omni or MLuneth, so I'm presenting my case on him, but there seems to be a lot of confirmation bias going on in this thread already directed at those 2. Again, I'll revisit omni once he returns to the thread, and while I don't disagree with some of the points brought up on MLuneth his lynch just looks too easy right now. It might be the right one, but in all my previous games the easy wagon has been the wrong one. PS: Oh god that was long
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EPT
Why you give me no credit?
