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11589 Posts
On March 15 2013 03:21 supersoft wrote:
You have to analyze, not to guess.
I've already analyzed Foolishness on my own. I think he's mafia, but he might just be unlynchable for some stupid fucking reason, you can't just discount the possibility when two people have mentioned it this game.
In Parallel World, mafia managed to make him VIRTUALLY unlynchable due to his world swaps throughout the game. It seems like a valid mafia strategy, at least perhaps for one day.
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that's pretty good stuff, austin.
On March 15 2013 03:09 supersoft wrote:
I digged through Marvs filter this morning and I am pretty confident he's town. I doubt anyone else reread marvs 25 pages of spam. Except maybe Foolishness. His mistake day1 was, that he didn't save WBG. But he's not the only one to blame for that. WBG was obv not scum.
I also digged through Vivax stuff and I came to the conclusion, that he plays different to his latest scumgame (where i didnt catch him), but also different to his latest towngame.
Vivax is a player, that will always be unreadable for me. His decisionmaking is different from everyone else in this forum. He's as special as chezinu and I will probably never be able to read him.
It was incredibly hard to force myself to read Marvs and Vivax filter. But I do it, because:
On March 15 2013 03:21 supersoft wrote:
You have to analyze, not to guess.
+ Show Spoiler +I'll read more and I'll update you. guys. Right now, I am working on the people that weren't in the spotlight yet. It's possible, that Foolishness and marv both are town and our scumteam hides somewhere between Ver and prplhz.
THAT spoiler here was a guess and no analysis btw.
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I'm out for a bit so I can't check filters for specifics but sorry version on Yamato is you guys are giving too much weight to that vig shot imo. Misguided, yes, however I would have considered vigging him if I had a shot and I'm not seeing any scum motivation that's stronger than town motivation for it.
Cora has slipped under my radar all game so I'll have to fully check his filter.
Also since it won't affect if the shot goes off if I claim this I was added to a group with one vig shot if the entire group agrees on it (not informed of who the members are outside of the leader knowing who he added). I'd encourage you to message me post lynch with who you want to target so I can see if i agree since as we progress and you add more people the odds of actually shooting go down dramatically. If I disagree I'll say who I'm targeting in thread and you can either go with that or hold the shot.
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+ Show Spoiler +On March 15 2013 03:33 supersoft wrote:
I'll read more and I'll update you. guys. Right now, I am working on the people that weren't in the spotlight yet. It's possible, that Foolishness and marv both are town and our scumteam hides somewhere between Ver and prplhz. Here's a thought! Now I will go and do scumhunting and see if it leads anywhere, then I will come back and inform everyone of my results. On March 15 2013 00:52 Oatsmaster wrote:
Is there a situation that both Foolishness and Marv are town and that we need to look elsewhere?
Like, YAMATO!!!!
Here's a thought! OH HOLY SHITBALLS WHAT IF IT'S RIGHT, MAYBE WE SHOULD LOOK OVER HERE, OR OVER HERE, OR OVER HERE? MAYBE I SHOULD JUST TOSS OUT NAAAAAAAAAAAAMES. Those two posts present the exact same thought. One takes it in a townie direction and goes scumhunting with it, or AT LEAST goes to find new information. One angers the thread police, because it just tosses the thought out there, tacks on a second thought attached to the first, and doesn't go forward at all. Please be the first poster. How you present your thoughts and what you DO with them are so telling, and so helpful in making this thread legible
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Ebwop sorry version = short version
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On March 15 2013 03:33 supersoft wrote:
Vivax is a player, that will always be unreadable for me. His decisionmaking is different from everyone else in this forum. He's as special as chezinu and I will probably never be able to read him.
This made me go awwww.
But actually I'm just surprised you're not calling me insane but special lol (cause I'm not until I reach a computer and start playing mafia).
Anyway I looked at the meta Foolish linked and I still don't think he's scum.
However I'll quote Crossfire's meta again cause that does make me think he's scum and I would really really really appreciate if people noticed the differences to this game and commented on it when I help at spoonfeeding it.
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United Kingdom36156 Posts
supersoft, given Foolish thinks yamato and I are 100% mafia and you have townreads on both of us, how likely do you think it is that Foolishness is town?
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Also since its the only option I agree with (although I still think Crossfire needs to hang) ##vote: Foolishness
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A brief update on people who are flying under the radar:
Stutters is looking more like his normal meta again. I like his response to my questions. Given that I have no clue how he plays as scum (due to 0 scumgames), he might still be scum, but he is not on my current suspect list.
risk.nuke is making sense. He is not as active or pushy as he normally is, but his posts are a breath of fresh air in a normally spammy thread. Also moved down the scumometer.
hiropro is not being his usual active self, although his latest posts make sense. Also had the weird phonepost drunk thingy. Was that roleplaying? Slowly moving up on the scumometer due to sheer lack of thread presence, which seems uncharacteristic for him.
Ver/DP: I have seen nothing from DP to change my D1 read on Ver, but seeing as we're not lynching him today, he has time. Investigation ongoing.
Xfire: not really under the radar. His reaction to the nukes seemed townie, but he has done absolutely NOTHING to contribute except when he's under pressure. Reevaluate on Foolishness flip: if he's scum, Xfire is town regardless of the rest of his game.
Dandel: between the claim and the reads being sensible, town.
Mocsta: on the fence. He doesn't really seem to be figuring stuff out and posts a lot of roleplaying/setup related stuff. But was one of the first to think Cora is scum. Need flips to figure this out.
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The thread looks so clean  . I do not mean to clog it up, but here's something worth noting, and something that we don't seem to have looked at.
Who stole the vote?
Someone stole prplhz's vote. That person has not claimed. It is likely that person is scum (regardless of whether vivax is scum or not, unclaimed votestealing ain't townie).
The vote steal was NOT posted with the daypost. That means it wasn't a night action, someone actively PMed kita during the day, when the vote steal happened, and stole the vote. This means that the person who stole the vote was PROBABLY someone who was active at that time, posting.
The following people posted in the ~15 minutes before Kita's message that prplhz's vote was stolen: DI, Vivax, Crossfire, marv, risk, acro
The following people posted in the ~15 minutes after Kita's message: DI, marv, Oats, vivax, acro, prom, iamp, HiroPro
Out of those players, the following people voted Vivax/wanted vivax killed, and said so during that time:
Crossfire
Risk-ish
Dandel Ion
Oatsmaster
Acrofales
Promethelax
I believe that our scummy dude is one of those folks. DI has claimed not-politician, and appears to know something particular to a role that we know is in the game and has not been counterclaimed. Therefore, he is probably not the culprit.
There is a chance that the PM to vote-steal was sent earlier, and kita just wasn't around. However, Kita confirmed ONE MINUTE before the vote steal that Vivax was nuking marvellosity. So kita was around and reading thread, and the steal is likely something that happened RIGHT THEN, after the nuke, because Kita would have mentioned the vote steal before the nuke if the vote steal was before the nuke (probably. Not unreasonable to assume).
I cannot be sure, but I like Oats the most for the vote-stealer. He posted within one minute of Kita posting that prplhz's vote was stolen, to say that Vivax claimed scum and why were we not lynching him. Oats didn't just vote Vivax, that statement is the most "Hey guys, let's push the lynch onto Vivax" statement of the bunch, and vote stealing helps to do that. Around right at the time of the steal, pushing Vivax for a lynch, and he isn't DI-who has claimed a different role that is somewhat backed up by the daypost. I have not really been looking at Oats today, because of all this other stuff. Now I'm trying to focus on other things, and following this up will be one of them.
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Arco can you expand on why you think if Foolishness is scum cross must be town? I'm not following that leap.
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United Kingdom36156 Posts
That's good analysis austin, the only problem with the conclusion is that both supersoft and I believe Oats to be town
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oats isn't one of my big town reads
i distinctly remember him being a lot more annoying in nomination mafia
also
On March 15 2013 00:24 DarthPunk wrote:
Holy Crap reading this thread is painful.
and
On March 15 2013 02:29 risk.nuke wrote:Show nested quote +On March 15 2013 02:26 marvellosity wrote:
I don't find Acro scummy enough to feel the need to comment on him, Vivax. It's perfectly simple. This thread already have one lazy poster. Do it to humor us.
just one?
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On March 15 2013 05:14 marvellosity wrote:
That's good analysis austin, the only problem with the conclusion is that both supersoft and I believe Oats to be town
thats not a problem with the analysis, you're being sloppy with your logic. It's an outside piece of evidence that you think should weigh against the analysis.
btw, why do you think oats is town? Still the same reason as before (non-specific "meta read" based on your gut impression)?
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United Kingdom36156 Posts
why are you taking me so literally there, strongandbig? The endpoint of the analysis was that he thought it was Oats, I was merely telling him that super and I have a town-read on Oats, therefore I don't think the conclusion is likely. Stop nitpicking. I'm not being "sloppy with my logic".
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United Kingdom36156 Posts
If you go back and read my reads post at the end of Night 1, s&b, that remains my stance on Oats.
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Well I guess
in that ginormous reads post, marvellosity wrote:
Oatsmaster. Suspicious of a lot of people, that's how he plays town. He is always all over the place, he asks stupid questions, and apparently contradicts himself quite a bit. this doesn't make him mafia. Oats plays SCARED as mafia.
is better than
On March 11 2013 07:35 marvellosity wrote:
just looks and feels like town oats so far, s&b
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On March 15 2013 05:11 Stutters695 wrote:
Arco can you expand on why you think if Foolishness is scum cross must be town? I'm not following that leap.
Xfire fired a nuke at Foolish. Xfire didn't know the nuke was fake (unless Xfire, Sloosh and Foolish are all scum together and this was a GIANT TRAP).
Therefore, if Foolish is scum, and Xfire is scum, then Xfire fired a nuke at his scumbuddy... out of nowhere and for no apparent reason. Not a likely scenario.
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United Kingdom36156 Posts
On March 15 2013 05:53 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On March 15 2013 05:11 Stutters695 wrote:
Arco can you expand on why you think if Foolishness is scum cross must be town? I'm not following that leap. Xfire fired a nuke at Foolish. Xfire didn't know the nuke was fake (unless Xfire, Sloosh and Foolish are all scum together and this was a GIANT TRAP). Therefore, if Foolish is scum, and Xfire is scum, then Xfire fired a nuke at his scumbuddy... out of nowhere and for no apparent reason. Not a likely scenario.
Yes, it's pretty obvious, the most interesting thing about it is that Stutters couldn't work out this logic for himself. It's not a leap... is Stutters just not reading? Crossfire's filter isn't very long to miss ##Nuke Foolishness
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+ Show Spoiler +On March 15 2013 05:53 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On March 15 2013 05:11 Stutters695 wrote:
Arco can you expand on why you think if Foolishness is scum cross must be town? I'm not following that leap. Xfire fired a nuke at Foolish. Xfire didn't know the nuke was fake (unless Xfire, Sloosh and Foolish are all scum together and this was a GIANT TRAP). Therefore, if Foolish is scum, and Xfire is scum, then Xfire fired a nuke at his scumbuddy... out of nowhere and for no apparent reason. Not a likely scenario.
You use the same reasoning I apply to argue that Foolishness is town for shooting at yamato and not marv (for the case marv is town and Fool scum).
I agree with you on yours, you agree with your own, so you must agree with mine 
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EPT
