EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XXXIII - Page 65
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Corazon
United States3230 Posts
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cakepie
985 Posts
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Corazon
United States3230 Posts
On December 28 2012 18:26 cDgCorazon wrote: I've been looking or the events and posts surrounding Shz's almost-lynching, and I've come up with a few things I'd like to share. I think it's ok to vote for Shz. His play has still been sub-par this game, and I'm not saying that anyone is scum or not just because of how they voted. Cake (Voted for FC)- He already stated his reasoning, and I think that his points have merit. We shouldn’t look too much into Cake’s decision to vote FC. Chrom- While he was not the first one to vote for Shz, he started the whole bandwagon with: [Spoiler]+ Show Spoiler + His reasons for Shz are solid, and I feel the same way. When he says that Shz did not vote on D2, he really meant it. His D2 vote for Chrom was really just a useless vote, and could have been used somewhere else. The OMGUS vote, along with the lurking and lack of contribution, shows that Chrom's vote for Shz was justified and reasonable. Unfortunately, I have to give Chrom the title of shepherd, because what came next became a clusterf**k of sheeping. Kick-Obviously, this is one of the more puzzling votes, but figuring out his motives could help us greatly in the scumhunt ahead. The most curious thing about his vote was the timing. His vote for Shz was 10 minutes before the deadline. -Why would he time it that late if he wanted to make a move to save himself? -Wouldn’t a better way to save himself be to defend himself a few hours before? -Had Kick given up, and was just exploiting a possible way to escape lynching, or was he trying to create some last minute chaos to rock everyone right before the votes were final? On December 28 2012 12:30 cakepie wrote: 3: Kick's play is a calculated chaos play betting on the sheeping tendencies we have already seen the past two days. It enables massive WIFOM bombs, while perhaps part of the scumteam stays on the Kick wagon to keep distance and gain town cred, while townies make a fool of themselves. This is a very likely possibility, if Kick acted alone, it was more likely because of this cause. More on how we should find out at the end of the post. For now, let’s move on to the other two. Orange: + Show Spoiler + On December 28 2012 08:55 Orangeremi wrote: Since that train seems to be going somewhere and scum seems fine with us voting Kick. ##Vote: shz Chrom, if shz turns town I'm looking at you. Hopping off of FC wagon when it seemed to gain momentum was something I was looking for. This is sheep #1. His whole post says, “I’m a sheep, I’m voting for Shz. The shepherd is supposed to be in charge of me, so if things go wrong with this vote, I can just dump the blame on him”. That is basically how his vote played out. This is textbook scum play. What is one way scum stays out of the spotlight? Joining the bandwagon of someone who has a strong town read from many other players in the game. This does one of two things: Gets rid of someone that scum knows is town, which puts the town in an even worse position. Giving Orange a way out if the vote goes wrong. If Shz flipped town, Orange can just point the finger at Chrom and stay in the shadows while another townie gets lynched. He even admits that is what he wants to do: Chrom, if shz turns town I'm looking at you. Hopping off of FC wagon when it seemed to gain momentum was something I was looking for. Sheeping and not scumhunting are two tell-tale signs of scum. He doesn’t even try to defend himself when I directly call him out, he just ignores it and posts. We need to pressure him. He’s gotten away with this behavior so far because everyone else’s behavior was just so bad. FatChunk His original vote post: + Show Spoiler + On December 28 2012 08:58 FatChunk wrote: okay well I think that either of the two people are scum: sHz and kickstart, and to be honest the last post of shz on the 27th was really scummy to me. I hope we're right. ##unvote ##Vote: sHz His post explaining his vote: + Show Spoiler + On December 28 2012 10:52 FatChunk wrote: Okay so here is/was my thought process. Chrom made some interesting observations about sHz, enough to cause me to make my read slightly stronger about sHz than Kick. After all, kick was a lurker more than anything, and scum lynch > lurker lynch. I was pretty confident in following someone with town rep like chrom, especially someone who is willing to risk his town rep on a scum read. but at this point I think that sHz is cleared, right? if shz was scum, Kickstart, a player with some experience, would not accuse sHz of scum that early in the game: it is just bad play. Unless kick was making bad cases to be shot down and appear to be scumhunting. Distancing himself from fellow scum? I don't know. Orangeremi, kickstart's scum partner, chooses to try and swing the vote toward sHz as a last minute attempt. His explanation is that he didn't think kickstart was scum, and that he voted me to judge my reaction. The part that interested me most was the line: I was pretty confident in following someone with a town rep like chrom, especially someone who is willing to risk his town rep on a scum read. Which contrasts with this post (this isn’t the whole post, but I made sure not to take him out of context): + Show Spoiler + On December 21 2012 04:03 FatChunk wrote: chromatically - I have noticed that he pressures too hard to the point of almost lying and skewing my words and overanalyzing small reactions in order to further his agenda. Faint vibe that I think should be looked into. Also, he seems like an experienced player which is scary if hes mafia. And this post: + Show Spoiler + On December 24 2012 03:03 FatChunk wrote: Regarding his[OE's] FoS on me: All I ever said was that I had a suspicion of chrom, something that needed to be examined after a lynch of omni, who is the most suspicious right now in my eyes. I also simply mentioned that Mocsta's case should be considered as we move forward. Well, isn’t that a complete 180 from D1 and D2? What gave you such a change of heart? Maybe it was the mislynch of Omni. FC could have figured out that if he says that he believes that Chrom is town, it could be to just keep Chrom around to be the shepherd to get all the townies to lynch themselves (which happened on D2, and possibly almost happened on D3). He could also reading Chrom as town because if the town decide to lynch Chrom off (in the case that Shz got lynched and flipped town), he can defend Chrom and therefore get some town cred if Chrom flips town. While it is not as open as Orange, FC’s sheeping needs to be looked into. He also needs to explain his change of heart on Chrom, and start naming off some suspects if he wants to prove he is not scum. So the question is: Where do we go from here? It seems like the next lynch could shape up to be a lynch for information. In normal circumstances, it is a bad thing, but with all the chaos that finished up Day 3, lynching for answers could be the way to root out the last 2 scum. Now that we have some more breathing room, and LYLO is again just a bad dream for now, a lynch for information here might be very beneficial to the town. Do we lynch Shz, and figure out if his almost-lynch today was a bunch of sheeps, or a mafia clusterf**k? Do we lynch someone who jumped on the bandwagon, and figure out from there if the bandwagon on Shz was an attempt to bus, or a case with some merit, which would put Shz back under suspicion? Did anyone read this? | ||
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Corazon
United States3230 Posts
On December 28 2012 18:26 cDgCorazon wrote: I've been looking or the events and posts surrounding Shz's almost-lynching, and I've come up with a few things I'd like to share. I think it's ok to vote for Shz. His play has still been sub-par this game, and I'm not saying that anyone is scum or not just because of how they voted. Cake (Voted for FC)- He already stated his reasoning, and I think that his points have merit. We shouldn’t look too much into Cake’s decision to vote FC. Chrom- While he was not the first one to vote for Shz, he started the whole bandwagon with: + Show Spoiler + On December 28 2012 08:18 Chromatically wrote: In fact, you can ignore the thing I posted. There's no reason for a townie to not care at all about the d2 lynch. No pushing, no voting, nothing at all. Not town behavior. Voteswitch time, everyone. His reasons for Shz are solid, and I feel the same way. When he says that Shz did not vote on D2, he really meant it. His D2 vote for Chrom was really just a useless vote, and could have been used somewhere else. The OMGUS vote, along with the lurking and lack of contribution, shows that Chrom's vote for Shz was justified and reasonable. Unfortunately, I have to give Chrom the title of shepherd, because what came next became a clusterf**k of sheeping. Kick-Obviously, this is one of the more puzzling votes, but figuring out his motives could help us greatly in the scumhunt ahead. The most curious thing about his vote was the timing. His vote for Shz was 10 minutes before the deadline. -Why would he time it that late if he wanted to make a move to save himself? -Wouldn’t a better way to save himself be to defend himself a few hours before? -Had Kick given up, and was just exploiting a possible way to escape lynching, or was he trying to create some last minute chaos to rock everyone right before the votes were final? This is a very likely possibility, if Kick acted alone, it was more likely because of this cause. More on how we should find out at the end of the post. For now, let’s move on to the other two. Orange: + Show Spoiler + On December 28 2012 08:55 Orangeremi wrote: Since that train seems to be going somewhere and scum seems fine with us voting Kick. ##Vote: shz Chrom, if shz turns town I'm looking at you. Hopping off of FC wagon when it seemed to gain momentum was something I was looking for. This is sheep #1. His whole post says, “I’m a sheep, I’m voting for Shz. The shepherd is supposed to be in charge of me, so if things go wrong with this vote, I can just dump the blame on him”. That is basically how his vote played out. This is textbook scum play. What is one way scum stays out of the spotlight? Joining the bandwagon of someone who has a strong town read from many other players in the game. This does one of two things: Gets rid of someone that scum knows is town, which puts the town in an even worse position. Giving Orange a way out if the vote goes wrong. If Shz flipped town, Orange can just point the finger at Chrom and stay in the shadows while another townie gets lynched. He even admits that is what he wants to do: Sheeping and not scumhunting are two tell-tale signs of scum. He doesn’t even try to defend himself when I directly call him out, he just ignores it and posts. We need to pressure him. He’s gotten away with this behavior so far because everyone else’s behavior was just so bad. FatChunk His original vote post: + Show Spoiler + On December 28 2012 08:58 FatChunk wrote: okay well I think that either of the two people are scum: sHz and kickstart, and to be honest the last post of shz on the 27th was really scummy to me. I hope we're right. ##unvote ##Vote: sHz His post explaining his vote: + Show Spoiler + On December 28 2012 10:52 FatChunk wrote: Okay so here is/was my thought process. Chrom made some interesting observations about sHz, enough to cause me to make my read slightly stronger about sHz than Kick. After all, kick was a lurker more than anything, and scum lynch > lurker lynch. I was pretty confident in following someone with town rep like chrom, especially someone who is willing to risk his town rep on a scum read. but at this point I think that sHz is cleared, right? if shz was scum, Kickstart, a player with some experience, would not accuse sHz of scum that early in the game: it is just bad play. Unless kick was making bad cases to be shot down and appear to be scumhunting. Distancing himself from fellow scum? I don't know. Orangeremi, kickstart's scum partner, chooses to try and swing the vote toward sHz as a last minute attempt. His explanation is that he didn't think kickstart was scum, and that he voted me to judge my reaction. The part that interested me most was the line: Which contrasts with this post (this isn’t the whole post, but I made sure not to take him out of context): + Show Spoiler + On December 21 2012 04:03 FatChunk wrote: chromatically - I have noticed that he pressures too hard to the point of almost lying and skewing my words and overanalyzing small reactions in order to further his agenda. Faint vibe that I think should be looked into. Also, he seems like an experienced player which is scary if hes mafia. And this post: + Show Spoiler + On December 24 2012 03:03 FatChunk wrote: Regarding his[OE's] FoS on me: All I ever said was that I had a suspicion of chrom, something that needed to be examined after a lynch of omni, who is the most suspicious right now in my eyes. I also simply mentioned that Mocsta's case should be considered as we move forward. Well, isn’t that a complete 180 from D1 and D2? What gave you such a change of heart? Maybe it was the mislynch of Omni. FC could have figured out that if he says that he believes that Chrom is town, it could be to just keep Chrom around to be the shepherd to get all the townies to lynch themselves (which happened on D2, and possibly almost happened on D3). He could also reading Chrom as town because if the town decide to lynch Chrom off (in the case that Shz got lynched and flipped town), he can defend Chrom and therefore get some town cred if Chrom flips town. While it is not as open as Orange, FC’s sheeping needs to be looked into. He also needs to explain his change of heart on Chrom, and start naming off some suspects if he wants to prove he is not scum. So the question is: Where do we go from here? It seems like the next lynch could shape up to be a lynch for information. In normal circumstances, it is a bad thing, but with all the chaos that finished up Day 3, lynching for answers could be the way to root out the last 2 scum. Now that we have some more breathing room, and LYLO is again just a bad dream for now, a lynch for information here might be very beneficial to the town. Do we lynch Shz, and figure out if his almost-lynch today was a bunch of sheeps, or a mafia clusterf**k? Do we lynch someone who jumped on the bandwagon, and figure out from there if the bandwagon on Shz was an attempt to bus, or a case with some merit, which would put Shz back under suspicion? EBWOP: Fixed BB code. | ||
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Corazon
United States3230 Posts
On December 29 2012 08:33 cakepie wrote: I'd like to hear your thoughts on "surely scum is not so stupid as to all switch together" and the possibility that one of orange or FC is still a hapless bad sheep. By "hapless bad sheep", do you mean they are a bad town? Or scummy? | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On December 29 2012 08:42 cDgCorazon wrote: By "hapless bad sheep", do you mean they are a bad town? Or scummy? bad town | ||
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Chromatically
United States1700 Posts
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cakepie
985 Posts
On December 29 2012 08:40 cDgCorazon wrote: + Show Spoiler + On December 28 2012 18:26 cDgCorazon wrote: I've been looking or the events and posts surrounding Shz's almost-lynching, and I've come up with a few things I'd like to share. I think it's ok to vote for Shz. His play has still been sub-par this game, and I'm not saying that anyone is scum or not just because of how they voted. Cake (Voted for FC)- He already stated his reasoning, and I think that his points have merit. We shouldn’t look too much into Cake’s decision to vote FC. Chrom- While he was not the first one to vote for Shz, he started the whole bandwagon with: + Show Spoiler + On December 28 2012 08:18 Chromatically wrote: In fact, you can ignore the thing I posted. There's no reason for a townie to not care at all about the d2 lynch. No pushing, no voting, nothing at all. Not town behavior. Voteswitch time, everyone. His reasons for Shz are solid, and I feel the same way. When he says that Shz did not vote on D2, he really meant it. His D2 vote for Chrom was really just a useless vote, and could have been used somewhere else. The OMGUS vote, along with the lurking and lack of contribution, shows that Chrom's vote for Shz was justified and reasonable. Unfortunately, I have to give Chrom the title of shepherd, because what came next became a clusterf**k of sheeping. Kick-Obviously, this is one of the more puzzling votes, but figuring out his motives could help us greatly in the scumhunt ahead. The most curious thing about his vote was the timing. His vote for Shz was 10 minutes before the deadline. -Why would he time it that late if he wanted to make a move to save himself? -Wouldn’t a better way to save himself be to defend himself a few hours before? -Had Kick given up, and was just exploiting a possible way to escape lynching, or was he trying to create some last minute chaos to rock everyone right before the votes were final? This is a very likely possibility, if Kick acted alone, it was more likely because of this cause. More on how we should find out at the end of the post. For now, let’s move on to the other two. Orange: + Show Spoiler + On December 28 2012 08:55 Orangeremi wrote: Since that train seems to be going somewhere and scum seems fine with us voting Kick. ##Vote: shz Chrom, if shz turns town I'm looking at you. Hopping off of FC wagon when it seemed to gain momentum was something I was looking for. This is sheep #1. His whole post says, “I’m a sheep, I’m voting for Shz. The shepherd is supposed to be in charge of me, so if things go wrong with this vote, I can just dump the blame on him”. That is basically how his vote played out. This is textbook scum play. What is one way scum stays out of the spotlight? Joining the bandwagon of someone who has a strong town read from many other players in the game. This does one of two things: Gets rid of someone that scum knows is town, which puts the town in an even worse position. Giving Orange a way out if the vote goes wrong. If Shz flipped town, Orange can just point the finger at Chrom and stay in the shadows while another townie gets lynched. He even admits that is what he wants to do: Sheeping and not scumhunting are two tell-tale signs of scum. He doesn’t even try to defend himself when I directly call him out, he just ignores it and posts. We need to pressure him. He’s gotten away with this behavior so far because everyone else’s behavior was just so bad. FatChunk His original vote post: + Show Spoiler + On December 28 2012 08:58 FatChunk wrote: okay well I think that either of the two people are scum: sHz and kickstart, and to be honest the last post of shz on the 27th was really scummy to me. I hope we're right. ##unvote ##Vote: sHz His post explaining his vote: + Show Spoiler + On December 28 2012 10:52 FatChunk wrote: Okay so here is/was my thought process. Chrom made some interesting observations about sHz, enough to cause me to make my read slightly stronger about sHz than Kick. After all, kick was a lurker more than anything, and scum lynch > lurker lynch. I was pretty confident in following someone with town rep like chrom, especially someone who is willing to risk his town rep on a scum read. but at this point I think that sHz is cleared, right? if shz was scum, Kickstart, a player with some experience, would not accuse sHz of scum that early in the game: it is just bad play. Unless kick was making bad cases to be shot down and appear to be scumhunting. Distancing himself from fellow scum? I don't know. Orangeremi, kickstart's scum partner, chooses to try and swing the vote toward sHz as a last minute attempt. His explanation is that he didn't think kickstart was scum, and that he voted me to judge my reaction. The part that interested me most was the line: Which contrasts with this post (this isn’t the whole post, but I made sure not to take him out of context): + Show Spoiler + On December 21 2012 04:03 FatChunk wrote: chromatically - I have noticed that he pressures too hard to the point of almost lying and skewing my words and overanalyzing small reactions in order to further his agenda. Faint vibe that I think should be looked into. Also, he seems like an experienced player which is scary if hes mafia. And this post: + Show Spoiler + On December 24 2012 03:03 FatChunk wrote: Regarding his[OE's] FoS on me: All I ever said was that I had a suspicion of chrom, something that needed to be examined after a lynch of omni, who is the most suspicious right now in my eyes. I also simply mentioned that Mocsta's case should be considered as we move forward. Well, isn’t that a complete 180 from D1 and D2? What gave you such a change of heart? Maybe it was the mislynch of Omni. FC could have figured out that if he says that he believes that Chrom is town, it could be to just keep Chrom around to be the shepherd to get all the townies to lynch themselves (which happened on D2, and possibly almost happened on D3). He could also reading Chrom as town because if the town decide to lynch Chrom off (in the case that Shz got lynched and flipped town), he can defend Chrom and therefore get some town cred if Chrom flips town. While it is not as open as Orange, FC’s sheeping needs to be looked into. He also needs to explain his change of heart on Chrom, and start naming off some suspects if he wants to prove he is not scum. So the question is: Where do we go from here? It seems like the next lynch could shape up to be a lynch for information. In normal circumstances, it is a bad thing, but with all the chaos that finished up Day 3, lynching for answers could be the way to root out the last 2 scum. Now that we have some more breathing room, and LYLO is again just a bad dream for now, a lynch for information here might be very beneficial to the town. Do we lynch Shz, and figure out if his almost-lynch today was a bunch of sheeps, or a mafia clusterf**k? Do we lynch someone who jumped on the bandwagon, and figure out from there if the bandwagon on Shz was an attempt to bus, or a case with some merit, which would put Shz back under suspicion? EBWOP: Fixed BB code. | ||
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
First, I'll just make this clear: + Show Spoiler + On December 28 2012 08:59 Aquanim wrote: AAAAND my other scumread jumps in GUYS THIS IS TOO OBVIOUS If I'd had more than 15 seconds to make this post, it would have read "THIS IS TOO OBVIOUSLY A SCUM PLOY FOR ANYONE ELSE TO CONSIDER VOTING SHZ". @Corazon: + Show Spoiler + On December 28 2012 18:26 cDgCorazon wrote: I've been looking or the events and posts surrounding Shz's almost-lynching, and I've come up with a few things I'd like to share. I think it's ok to vote for Shz. His play has still been sub-par this game, and I'm not saying that anyone is scum or not just because of how they voted. Cake (Voted for FC)- He already stated his reasoning, and I think that his points have merit. We shouldn’t look too much into Cake’s decision to vote FC. Chrom- While he was not the first one to vote for Shz, he started the whole bandwagon with: + Show Spoiler + On December 28 2012 08:18 Chromatically wrote: In fact, you can ignore the thing I posted. There's no reason for a townie to not care at all about the d2 lynch. No pushing, no voting, nothing at all. Not town behavior. Voteswitch time, everyone. His reasons for Shz are solid, and I feel the same way. When he says that Shz did not vote on D2, he really meant it. His D2 vote for Chrom was really just a useless vote, and could have been used somewhere else. The OMGUS vote, along with the lurking and lack of contribution, shows that Chrom's vote for Shz was justified and reasonable. Unfortunately, I have to give Chrom the title of shepherd, because what came next became a clusterf**k of sheeping. Kick-Obviously, this is one of the more puzzling votes, but figuring out his motives could help us greatly in the scumhunt ahead. The most curious thing about his vote was the timing. His vote for Shz was 10 minutes before the deadline. -Why would he time it that late if he wanted to make a move to save himself? -Wouldn’t a better way to save himself be to defend himself a few hours before? -Had Kick given up, and was just exploiting a possible way to escape lynching, or was he trying to create some last minute chaos to rock everyone right before the votes were final? This is a very likely possibility, if Kick acted alone, it was more likely because of this cause. More on how we should find out at the end of the post. For now, let’s move on to the other two. Orange: + Show Spoiler + On December 28 2012 08:55 Orangeremi wrote: Since that train seems to be going somewhere and scum seems fine with us voting Kick. ##Vote: shz Chrom, if shz turns town I'm looking at you. Hopping off of FC wagon when it seemed to gain momentum was something I was looking for. This is sheep #1. His whole post says, “I’m a sheep, I’m voting for Shz. The shepherd is supposed to be in charge of me, so if things go wrong with this vote, I can just dump the blame on him”. That is basically how his vote played out. This is textbook scum play. What is one way scum stays out of the spotlight? Joining the bandwagon of someone who has a strong town read from many other players in the game. This does one of two things: Gets rid of someone that scum knows is town, which puts the town in an even worse position. Giving Orange a way out if the vote goes wrong. If Shz flipped town, Orange can just point the finger at Chrom and stay in the shadows while another townie gets lynched. He even admits that is what he wants to do: Sheeping and not scumhunting are two tell-tale signs of scum. He doesn’t even try to defend himself when I directly call him out, he just ignores it and posts. We need to pressure him. He’s gotten away with this behavior so far because everyone else’s behavior was just so bad. FatChunk His original vote post: + Show Spoiler + On December 28 2012 08:58 FatChunk wrote: okay well I think that either of the two people are scum: sHz and kickstart, and to be honest the last post of shz on the 27th was really scummy to me. I hope we're right. ##unvote ##Vote: sHz His post explaining his vote: + Show Spoiler + On December 28 2012 10:52 FatChunk wrote: Okay so here is/was my thought process. Chrom made some interesting observations about sHz, enough to cause me to make my read slightly stronger about sHz than Kick. After all, kick was a lurker more than anything, and scum lynch > lurker lynch. I was pretty confident in following someone with town rep like chrom, especially someone who is willing to risk his town rep on a scum read. but at this point I think that sHz is cleared, right? if shz was scum, Kickstart, a player with some experience, would not accuse sHz of scum that early in the game: it is just bad play. Unless kick was making bad cases to be shot down and appear to be scumhunting. Distancing himself from fellow scum? I don't know. Orangeremi, kickstart's scum partner, chooses to try and swing the vote toward sHz as a last minute attempt. His explanation is that he didn't think kickstart was scum, and that he voted me to judge my reaction. The part that interested me most was the line: Which contrasts with this post (this isn’t the whole post, but I made sure not to take him out of context): + Show Spoiler + On December 21 2012 04:03 FatChunk wrote: chromatically - I have noticed that he pressures too hard to the point of almost lying and skewing my words and overanalyzing small reactions in order to further his agenda. Faint vibe that I think should be looked into. Also, he seems like an experienced player which is scary if hes mafia. And this post: + Show Spoiler + On December 24 2012 03:03 FatChunk wrote: Regarding his[OE's] FoS on me: All I ever said was that I had a suspicion of chrom, something that needed to be examined after a lynch of omni, who is the most suspicious right now in my eyes. I also simply mentioned that Mocsta's case should be considered as we move forward. Well, isn’t that a complete 180 from D1 and D2? What gave you such a change of heart? Maybe it was the mislynch of Omni. FC could have figured out that if he says that he believes that Chrom is town, it could be to just keep Chrom around to be the shepherd to get all the townies to lynch themselves (which happened on D2, and possibly almost happened on D3). He could also reading Chrom as town because if the town decide to lynch Chrom off (in the case that Shz got lynched and flipped town), he can defend Chrom and therefore get some town cred if Chrom flips town. While it is not as open as Orange, FC’s sheeping needs to be looked into. He also needs to explain his change of heart on Chrom, and start naming off some suspects if he wants to prove he is not scum. So the question is: Where do we go from here? It seems like the next lynch could shape up to be a lynch for information. In normal circumstances, it is a bad thing, but with all the chaos that finished up Day 3, lynching for answers could be the way to root out the last 2 scum. Now that we have some more breathing room, and LYLO is again just a bad dream for now, a lynch for information here might be very beneficial to the town. Do we lynch Shz, and figure out if his almost-lynch today was a bunch of sheeps, or a mafia clusterf**k? Do we lynch someone who jumped on the bandwagon, and figure out from there if the bandwagon on Shz was an attempt to bus, or a case with some merit, which would put Shz back under suspicion? We're not so far from LYLO that we're not going to lynch the scummiest player. Shz is not the scummiest player, by a long shot. Some possibilities about Kick's vote + Show Spoiler + Why Orangeremi is scum + Show Spoiler + All the reasons I said at the end of Night Two still hold true. Orange has completely failed to give any information unless directly asked (except for the bare minimum reasons required with his votes) and this got worse, if anything, day 3. Neither has he tried to elicit any further information from the thread - which is certainly not what I'd do if I was as unsure of my reads as Orange purports to be. + Show Spoiler + On December 20 2012 10:23 Orangeremi wrote: At this point I'm entirely uncommitted. Of all players nominated for lynching, FatChunk, Threesr, and cDgCorazon are the ones I'm considering. Otherwise, I have a slight suspicion of Sylencia that is based solely on a hunch and little to no evidence. On December 20 2012 10:06 Orangeremi wrote: Your read on FatChunk is very convincing. His reaction to you mentioning Corazon earlier definitely made me question what was going on, but I didn't look into it nearly as much. To be completely honest regarding Corazon's slip up (accidentally claiming mafia), I read it completely normally thinking he did anything wrong and didn't notice until Threesr pointed out that he had. I don't know what that says about me, but if he read it right and I read it right, he could possibly be telling the truth. I do agree with you that they're both acting incredibly defensive. On December 20 2012 20:35 Orangeremi wrote: I'm not fond of how Kickstart is currently playing. He's the #1 lurker right now and I'd put him near the top of my list of suspicion. I want to see more of what he has to contribute, so far I'm not impressed. Corazon has done a lot more than expected in an attempt to redeeming himself. I'm not convinced he is scum anymore but I'd still keep my eye out. The other two players have yet to post anything since they've become top reads, I'm waiting on that. The case for Spag is huge, I'm leaning towards that. It's really the only case so far that has actually made me consider voting something other than no lynch (my previous top choice). I'd currently rate my voting choices at 1. Spag 2. Kickstar 3. FatChunk with a possibility of no lynch if they have sufficient evidence to the contrary. Day One, Orageremi does a lot of sitting on the fence and watching how the day's going to pan out before committing a vote himself. He does NO searching for scum of his own. Townies may be unsure about their reads but then they have NO excuse for not trying to clarify their reads by pressuring, asking questions, etc. He voted for FatChunk in the end, but at a time when it made exactly no difference - he didn't try to push his FatChunk read AT ALL, before or after the day one lynch. + Show Spoiler + On December 22 2012 13:26 Orangeremi wrote: I don't like how Threesr is playing if he's town. He's helping very little and I could see him playing a reverse psychological scum the way he is acting. I've got my eye on FC, but want to hold off on further judgements until I see him post this Day I'm also waiting on more from Kickstart, I'm wary of how he's playing this game as opposed to his last one. On December 23 2012 02:02 Orangeremi wrote: I didn't vote for Spag. I'm not sure what else there is to say about this. I'd like to argue that the arguments are indeed mine, because I come to the conclusions on my own (as did other players, seeing as they're the same) although I agree they are brief and weak. In your original accusation you said that my lack of names implied either me being afraid of being put in the spotlight or I have not seen anything suspicious (which you doubted). While I'll say I don't like the spotlight, avoiding it hasn't been completely on purpose. But that isn't why. I wouldn't honestly say I don't have any suspicions, but that I don't have any convicting suspicions. That's why my 'reads' are the same as everyone else's and not in depth. I had actually typed up my post (as 'jokey' as it is) before I saw you had posted yours. Day Two, Orange is still sitting on the fence. He puts a safe vote on Omni with little to no reasoning, and doesn't pressure anyone else. Day Three, Orange wanders into the thread with a promise of more content: On December 26 2012 18:51 Orangeremi wrote: Apparently I've been roleblocked. I'm gonna read up on the thread, be back soon. He doesn't come back for another 14 hours. This smells to me like a scum who wanders into the thread, sees wagons on all his buddies and panicks. Given that Orangeremi said he had scum reads on FC and Kick day one, and FC and Kick contributed basically nothing day two and early day three, why would Orange not be entirely happy to vote for one of them now? Orange doesn't vote for either of them for MORE THAN 24 HOURS, in which time he did in fact post a little. All you townies out there, ask yourself this: given the activity in this game, would you have chosen to ask NO QUESTIONS and deliver NO PRESSURE for the last three days? Because that's what Orange has done. This is the pivotal point here, the day three lynch is just icing on the cake. Lynching not particularly scummy players for perfectly good reasons was what killed Omni. Orange has NOT been searching for scum by asking questions, etc. He has been finding a justification for his vote in the material already in the thread and not questioning it - and that is not town. I wasn't convinced Shz was scum. My reasoning is based on Kick not being scum. His lynch was clear and nobody tried to intervene and take votes off of him. Why not? If he was scum, his scumbuddies would be trying to vote someone else. But that wasn't happening. Since it wasn't happening, I was convinced he was town. Which begs the question, why wasn't it happening? Chrom switched just as I did, I'd want to know why he didn't push it earlier either. I wanted to push for whichever vote had the better chance of winning that wasn't Kick, since I was under the impression that Kick wasn't scum. If Orange believed Kick wasn't scum for this reason, why didn't he mention this earlier? In fact: On December 28 2012 05:08 Orangeremi wrote: Now a voting trend like this is going to give us a lot more information when the lynch turns and we see who voted (and didn't vote) for it. So much better than us having ganged up on a single player both days before. Please, those of us who have not voted, VOTE! And do it for the player you think will benefit us most. It is crucial. We need to be productive today or else this game is over. His lynch was clear and nobody tried to intervene and take votes off of him. Why not? If he was scum, his scumbuddies would be trying to vote someone else. So was the Kick wagon good or bad? Make up your mind. This is a piss-poor justification for a last-minute switch. Were we all on Kick or not? Also, this: On December 28 2012 02:06 Orangeremi wrote: Well we've just fucked ourselves by not finding any scum thus far and at this point we don't have many options. We cannot afford another townie loss. We need to be certain or very close to certain that our next vote is mafia. I wasn't convinced Shz was scum. My reasoning is based on Kick not being scum. ... So... many... contradictions. Orange's reasons for voting Shz rather than Kick are COMPLETELY INCONSISTENT with what he said just before the lynch, which is entirely characteristic of a scum casting about for some reason why he just did something daft. On December 28 2012 23:17 Orangeremi wrote: Why haven't they been night killed yet? I'm trying to figure it out. I suppose mocsta and yamato weren't bad nightkills, but I think these players (maybe aqua more than syl) should be up there. If they aren't nk'd tonight I'm going to think 1) The mafia doesn't see these guys as a threat. They're on the wrong track or have some other misdirection 2) They are the mafia I'm using they as a term for either one of them here, please excuse me. So, what, now he's trying to set up some grounds for a lynch on his town reads? Why FatChunk is scum + Show Spoiler + All the reasons I said at the end of Night Two still hold true. FatChunk has completely failed to give any information unless directly asked (except for the bare minimum reasons required with his votes) and this got worse, if anything, day 3. Neither has he tried to elicit any further information from the thread - which is certainly not what I'd do if I was as unsure of my reads as FatChunk purports to be. (Dat copy-paste.) Seriously, look through FatChunk's filter (it's small, it won't take long) and try to find all the posts which aren't direct responses to questions/pressure. + Show Spoiler + On December 19 2012 14:06 FatChunk wrote: Hey guys sorry for my late post, have caught up though. This is my first mafia game on TL, all my experience, as with shz, is with the UMS game. Policy on LAL is fine with me. Lying can only hurt town and I see no situations how this could be beneficial. Regarding lurkers, I think that it shouldn't be set in stone. From my point of view as a newbie, lurking isn't a quality of either mafia or town. It is equally as likely that a mafia/sk will actively post, lead discussions, blend in with town as it is that a townie will, and the same goes for lurkers. Ultimately its a judgement call based on quality of posts, and hopefully the majority will make the right call in that situation. Cakepie, I really liked your post regarding not being afraid to make mistakes as a townie. In this game of newbies, we will learn while asking questions and participating in discussion. I will be fearless. That being said I think at this point in the game, there is very little information available, but I see value in scoping out a possible lynch on the first day. I think we should be looking for players who promote environments where Mafia thrive. Meaningless start-of-game stuff. + Show Spoiler + On December 19 2012 22:44 FatChunk wrote: I see your point regarding the reason for lurking. Upon reflection, I agree that lurking should be discouraged and if apparent, you will be questioned and proded. I think its very simple, as Mocsta said: lurking is not a free pas to fly under the radar. I also agree with Kickstart regarding lynching scum leads of randomly lynching lurkers. This, I feel, is obvious. As far as I understand an environment where mafia thrive is that of uncertainty, confusion. An environment which contains people who have split views, people that are not confident in their stance and can be swayed by logic, reason, should the situation call for it. Threesr did a good job of contradicting views regarding lurking, diverting town chat paths, and the town seems to be talking a little bit but we are dancing around constructive discussion (not to mention the fact that Threesr has been quite inactive recently). Perhaps this is scum behaviour. I understand policies on LAL and lurking needs to be discussed, and most of the tough thinking will come when it`s time to vote by ultimately making a read. This makes it really important to present strong arguments when it comes to FoS because others will base their arguments upon the information you present. I think we should be asking ourselves a few questions (whether to find scum or to eliminate uselss town), who is contributing constructively to discussion and who is simply causing the town to get hung up on lesser-than-top-priority thoughts and ideas. Top priorities, to me, are: establishing a wagon using a strong argument, reading into feedback and responses after suspicion has been vocalized, and developing an opinion (certainties are non-existen in this game, right?). The town atmosphere seems to be good so far and this is good for finding scum: perhaps we should start prodding the lurkers and advocates of lurking. I say this because inactivity seems to be common, and as we have all agreed, uncontributing town is useless and detrimental to town goals, whether they are mafia or town. My read is currently for Threesr, but am open to discussion. Would liek to hear more from him regarding lurking and why HE thinks it can be benificial for town to allow. ##Vote: theesr Votes for Threesr (who we now know is town) without any real committment. + Show Spoiler + On December 21 2012 09:02 FatChunk wrote: Spag's rebuttle to Aqua's argument was in my opinion, satisfactory. Mocsta your post does not provide any evidence in my eyes, it is all speculation. Your first arguments that spag acuses corazon to be scum, then changes to town, is quite possible. People can probably change their minds in this game, thats the idea behind pressuring right? Thus, inconclusive Part 2. Thus part 3 is a little redundant if you dont value part 2. Also, RE: 3-(4) he does not manipulate town for survival, he manipulates town openly and in the right direction by sacrificing his own survival because he risks coming off as too agressive. Also, if he were mafia why would he openly protect his 2 other mafia mates. Anyway your argument does not sway me, neither did Aquas'. Everyone keeps mentioning that spag is appearing useful while not contributing. Spag has argued that he has been lighting fires under lurkers to gain information. Is this not considered scumhunting, whether direct or indirect? He seems to be contributing in ways that are very obviously pro-town. I do not really see conclusive evidence. But who knows, maybe thats what town's supposed to do on day1. Anyway, we would have stood much more benefit and less to lose by lynching theesr - we would have confirmed theesr as town/scum and in turn shed some light on spag's innocence. Now hes gone. I will do my best D2 to be more useful, as it seems nobody values my posts. Trying to make town points from the Spag mislynch. + Show Spoiler + On December 23 2012 06:15 FatChunk wrote: I'm just curious, why would you assume it's scum RB? Mocsta has some great points, I find it very hard to provide new insight when cases are well-fabricated and I agree with them. While I do not think the evidence is inconclusive against Chromatically (while I always shared a suspicion of him) Omni is a real issue. My stance on OmniEulogy: -I find it very hard to believe that he claimed VT as proper strategy. -His 100% scum read on corazone is very interesting, as he is very easy to sway off that vote when pressure on corazone is removed. This smells of scum trying to mis-lynch, and he is appearing to be useful by presenting his case against corazone. Before I vote OE I will provide more explanation for my vote. Here's what I think happened: Scum omni knows spag will turn town, and pre-claims VT innocent in an attempt to avoid defending against spag's challenges. Otherwise, town omni would genuinely expect spag to turn scum, and then would have no reason to claim VT. This is because scum spag's scum read on omni would be discarded immediately upon spag turning red. @Omni Your reason for claiming VT is that you knew they would question you if spag turns town. Are you claiming that your scum read on spag was insufficient to base your vote on, realized that you sheeped the vote, and began to prepare for spag to turn town? This is the only explanation IMO that can come from a townie. This being said, I would like to hear from sHz and Sylencia, two players who have been posting infrequently and pretty much agreeeing or disagreeing with others without providing reasons. I honestly don't know why these players have been given a free pass, with nobody prodding them during their time afk. sHz: -Basically he's a lurking sheep. Agreees with any arguments that multiple people have approved. He switches his vote from corazon to spag juts because spag defended him. -He does not provide any new information when he posts, and does not participate in very much scum-hunting. -A list of people he has been suspicious at one point or another: Mocsta, Corazone, Spagetticus, me, threesr. His arguments for suspicion against these players are not very well presented, and are based on things like "the case against X is convincing to me". Votes based on desire to lynch anyone. -He appears to be useful when not actually being useful. I would like to hear what he has to say about Mocsta's case, he has been active for too long. I would like to see him actually scumhunt, ask questions that reveal important information. Sylencia: -Lurks, comes out with opinions out of the blue that, quite frankly, nobody takes seriously. -One page filter can serve one purpose: provide as little information as possible so that nobody can make a read. ---Ironic. Unless I see increase in useful posting from him he goes up in my scum suspicion. -away excuse gives him free ride for 1-2 days? -Has less attention put on him for these reasons -Votes corazone D1 because he's the easy target (has the most votes) and tries to appear like he is emotionally torn apart by making this choice. Attempt for sympathy can only be scummy to me. Does anyone agree with any of these points? What are your opinions of shz and sylencia? Aqua, I thought there was a relationship between theesr and spag, as spag was advocating theesr as town. If we lynched threesr and he turned town, you can probably expect spag to be town too. However if we lynched spag, and he turned town, we would be stuck with the non-useful townie. A list of reads - condemning Shz and Sylencia for lurking, but not Kick or Orange. + Show Spoiler + On December 24 2012 03:03 FatChunk wrote: Well so far I'm going to have to vote for Omni tonight because lynching omni gives us the most amount of information. Also I pin him as someone trying to cover up a slip, especially because he puts the FoS on me when it was not only me who shares suspicion on him and chrom. I guess I am an easy lynch-target? Then he proceeds to vote orangeremi because he is the only alternative, and then posts 1 sentence on his justification for his vote. I also did not like his defense of his scum slip. Cakepie in his case post on Omni identified that I strongly agree with this, as I have presented in earlier posts. Regarding his FoS on me: All I ever said was that I had a suspicion of chrom, something that needed to be examined after a lynch of omni, who is the most suspicious right now in my eyes. I also simply mentioned that Mocsta's case should be considered as we move forward. + Show Spoiler + you are misunderstanding pretty badly. Or intentionally trying to twist what I am saying. I did not say that I claimed to give more information. I said that it makes sense to claim VT even if I thought he was scum because if he isn't I would be put into this position one way or the other. You argued how I'd know he is town, I replied by saying I didn't, I was pretty confident AND when he flipped scum the information we would gain would be far greater than scum learning my role. I'm not changing any story I'm just giving you more information behind my thought process because you've asked the same question in different ways about 3 times. I have to go into more detail. Nowhere in there do I say I claim to give town information. ##FoS: Chromatically This is twice you've tried to either twist my words or intentionally misunderstand to try and get your own agenda out. In the first sentence again no less. followed by: I think this could have been handled better. He places FoS too hastily on someone he has a town read on. I dont think his justification for FoS is valid. He is quite defensive as a general posting theme. All this seems to give me a scum vibe. My stance on threesr is: vote him out on a day that we have weak scumreads, or have a vigilante take him out. Orangeremi: -Claims he has suspicions but no scum reads, is reluctant to accuse anyone. When he does vote, he votes to bandwagon and gives no justification for his choice other than that person X presented the case before me. Sounds like he's trying to free-ride. -"take this with a grain of salt", "I'm not convinced of anyone being scum D1", "although I agree they [OR's arguments] are brief and weak" - quotes like these (not exact) make him appear to contribute without doing so. He is playing VERY safe and gives alot of uncertain reads, or reads that require more information before they can be justified. -IMO: lazy bad town, or bad scum. ##Vote:OmniEulogy And an unconvincing vote for Omni, who's flipped town. In short, the only posts FatChunk has made when not directly asked to do so have clear scum motivation. This is the pivotal point here, the day three lynch is just icing on the cake. Lynching not particularly scummy players for perfectly good reasons was what killed Omni. FatChunk has NOT been searching for scum by asking questions, etc. He has been finding a justification for his vote in the material already in the thread and not questioning it - and that is not town. Let's examine his reasons for switching to Shz: On December 28 2012 08:58 FatChunk wrote: okay well I think that either of the two people are scum: sHz and kickstart, and to be honest the last post of shz on the 27th was really scummy to me. I hope we're right. ##unvote ##Vote: sHz This... is terribad. Why would he change his mind based on a post from yesterday? This is a complete copout. On December 28 2012 10:52 FatChunk wrote: Okay so here is/was my thought process. Chrom made some interesting observations about sHz, enough to cause me to make my read slightly stronger about sHz than Kick. After all, kick was a lurker more than anything, and scum lynch > lurker lynch. I was pretty confident in following someone with town rep like chrom, especially someone who is willing to risk his town rep on a scum read. but at this point I think that sHz is cleared, right? if shz was scum, Kickstart, a player with some experience, would not accuse sHz of scum that early in the game: it is just bad play. Unless kick was making bad cases to be shot down and appear to be scumhunting. Distancing himself from fellow scum? I don't know. Orangeremi, kickstart's scum partner, chooses to try and swing the vote toward sHz as a last minute attempt. His explanation is that he didn't think kickstart was scum, and that he voted me to judge my reaction. This post STILL feels like a scum trying not to commit to anything. He's calling Orange scum, but at this point the scum have to bus to have even the slightest hope of survival. Their late switch onto Shz and away from Kick wouldn't be enough to damn them on its own, even though it's the only thing they've been decisive about the entire game - but there is simply nothing town-motivated about their play in the entire game. Why FatChunk and Orange are scum with Kick + Show Spoiler + Well, now we've had a red flip I can open the sealed file: In Night Two, Aquanim wrote: While I still don't like association cases before a red flip, here's a couple of things I'll point out in case I die. Call this spoiler a time capsule, and label it "ONLY OPEN IN CASE OF RED FLIP ON KICK/FC/ORANGE" + Show Spoiler +
And in the day one lynch: The final votecount: Spaghetticus (7): Aquanim, OmniEulogy, Mocsta, cakepie, Kickstart, Chromatically, shz cDgCorazon (2): threesr, Sylencia threesr (2): FatChunk, cDgCorazon FatChunk (1): Orangeremi OmniEulogy (1): Spaghetticus Scum votes spread all over the place on a day where none of them are under threat. Check. Aaaand the day two lynch: Final Votecount: Orangeremi (1): OmniEulogy OmniEulogy (7): Orangeremi, cakepie, cDgCorazon, Sylencia, FatChunk, Chromatically, Aquanim shz (1): Kickstart Chromatically (1): shz Not voting (1): threesr Scum votes a little more consolidated on the main target, and Orangeremi was under some pressure early on. Check. It's not that I'm saying "these three are scum on the basis of these associations, lynch them" - I think they're scum individually and there's nothing about their association which wouldn't make sense from scum. In particular, there's nothing here which stops there being a single scum elsewhere. All of this still holds true, and the day three lynch is the final piece of the puzzle. We finally have a wagon on scum. Orange and FC were the only other seriously discussed lynch targets for most of Day Three. If one or both of them comes in and tries to start a different wagon it's going to be really, really obvious - it'll be their first real action of the game, with a blindingly clear scum motivation. So, they wait for as long as they dare for another target before posting. When it becomes clear that there's not going to be any alternative (and NOT BEFORE), the scum proceed to bus one another. I don't think the fact that they didn't all bus the same player is relevant. When Chromatic came in with his vote for Shz, all three scum jumped at the opportunity to grab a mislynch. If they hadn't done this, Kick would have been lynched for sure; even though they wouldn't have been in as bad a position as now, they'd still be the scummiest players in the game and needing two mislynches to win. It's difficult to see where those two mislynches would come from (a lynch on myself, Cakepie, Chromatic or Corazon would be very hard to swing). On the other hand, if they'd managed to swing the vote onto Shz then we'd have to find three scum in the five players voting for Shz without making any mislynches AT ALL. The reward outweighed the risk; just because the play looks bad now that it's failed doesn't mean it was a bad idea. Which is why this play isn't too bad to be true. As for why it happened at the last minute? Townies are more likely to make mistakes when time is short. They hoped to panic another townie into switching to Shz (I confess I thought about it for a moment after Kick voted). "Why didn't scum try to direct the lynch away from Kick early on?" is a VERY good question. To my mind, the only reasonable answer is "All of the other wagons and suspicions were on scum too." Oh, and they NKd Yamato because he was on the right track. I was thinking along more-or-less the same lines as Yamato, but didn't make that crystal clear until very near the deadline. Oh, and people are calling the late vote switch too bad to be believed. I disagree, but even so - bad scum plays are generally bad because they have no town motivation. Just because it's a bad scum play and therefore scum are less likely to do it doesn't mean there would be any reason for town to do it. When the impossible is eliminated only the unlikely remains - and I just don't believe that a town Orange or FC would choose this as their first decisive action in the entire game. Why Shz is not scum + Show Spoiler + I agree that Shz's failure to push a scumread of his own day 2 is a scummy thing to do. And his hopping on the Spag wagon wasn't exactly a clearly town move either. But remember, there are reasons WHY these things are scummy. Sheeping, and not pushing your own reads, is scummy because a) it doesn't expose your own thought process and reasoning, which is in mafia's best interests, b) it isn't the best way to pressure and get answers, and c) it takes less responsibility for the lynch. However, I would say that Shz is in fact exposing his own reasoning (at least somewhat) elsewhere, and he is pressuring a little and asking questions. I don't think scum Shz would have played all the little things (his little questions, his list posts, etc) as well as he did but play the big things (his behaviour at lynch) suspiciously. My town read on Shz was mostly a gut read - the above isn't a perfect explanation but I think it's the best I can offer. All this aside, we're left with Kick's vote for Shz, which he set up Night One. Kick didn't even mention the Omni case (which in retrospect was a blindingly obvious tell), and that makes me think the purpose of the Shz vote was just somewhere reasonable but noncommittal to put his vote. However, his points on Shz were reasonable (if brief), and given the sheepiness of day one townies might very easily have sheeped him. Scum almost always only bus as a last resort, and Kick simply had no reason to bus at the start of day two. Why Chromatic is not scum + Show Spoiler + He's active, he's open-minded to new possibilities, he's pushing his reads, his reads make sense (even if they're wrong), he's interested in the lynch, he's pushing for information, he's revealing his thoughts voluntarily, this is nothing like his XXXI play... need I go on? A quick point on everyone else + Show Spoiler + Anyone else could have switched to Shz and saved Kick. For the same reasons as above this would be a good play for them if they were scum. Basically, the message here is "Don't WIFOM your way out of an easy win. Only try convincing yourself that Chromatic, Cakepie, or someone voting for Kick is scum IF Orange or FC, the obvious scum, flip town - not before." I'd prefer to lynch Orange first, if only because both he and Cakepie were roleblocked night two - assuming that there is one town RB and one scum RB, and that scum wouldn't fake a RB on themselves, a red flip on Orange confirms Cakepie town. | ||
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
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Chromatically
United States1700 Posts
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cakepie
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Early phase: Shz strange early pressure vote on Mocsta FatChunk taking the easy threesr vote (and staryed there all day). Chrom onto corazon is hard to place one way or the other Havoc phase: Basically bad/lazy threesr causing a mess, nothing to look at here. Corazon wagon phase: OmniEulogy -> cDgCorazon 20 0929 threesr -> cDgCorazon 20 1311 shz -> cDgCorazon 20 1317 Sylencia -> cDgCorazon 20 1405 If scum has not already put two on corazon, they would be doing it here. A third scum is either still lurking and waiting, not voting yet, or has already voted elsewhere -- in which case I feel it would most likely on threesr {FatChunk, Corazon, Mocsta}, which leads me to suspect FatChunk somewhat. We now know Omni and threesr to be town. The other two are hard to say -- shz is still under some scrutiny; syl has fallen under the radar somewhat. The note on FatChunk may have been right. Spaghetticus case initiation phase: Aquanim -> Spaghetticus 20 1936 OmniEulogy -> Spaghetticus 20 2150 OrangeRemi -> nolynch 20 2247 Chromatically -> FatChunk 20 2354 cDgCorazon -> nolynch 21 0026 cDgCorazon -> threesr 21 0040 This is uninteresting now that Omni flipped town. Chromatically left off the pressure on Corazon, and switched to FatChunk, a reasonable choice, while keeping open the possibility of moving to Spaghetticus. This is consistent with his overall play D2 and D3 as well -- broadening the number of lurkers and suspects under pressure before consolidating. Spaghetticus wagon phase: Mocsta -> Spaghetticus 21 0052 cakepie -> Spaghetticus 21 0252 kickstart -> Spaghetticus 21 0531 Chromatically -> Spaghetticus 21 0657 shz -> Spaghetticus 21 0725 OrangeRemi -> Fatchunk 21 0850 It is now clear that kickstart sheeped onto the wagon. But what of Chromatically and shz? An honest townie mistake, or scum on the wagon? Did Chrom deliberately leave open the option to move to spag, so as to blend in with the lynch of the day? OrangeRemi votes very late, and the vote does not matter to the lynch -- comfortably distancing himself from Fatchunk, perhaps? Revisiting D2 voting. Actually interesting when compared to D1: now kickstart is apart, while the whole bloody world sheeps onto OmniEulogy. On roleblocks I believe the roleblocked claims are all true -- town need not lie, and scum would not risk being called out on lying, so they must follow suit. I asked the hosts some pertinent questions. I will let you all think on it yourselves, and act appropriately. Someone tried to block me both nights so far, so I will not reveal what I am just yet. On D3 voting and the voteswing I am actually fairly convinced that FatChunk and Orangeremi are the most likely remaining scum, and that we saw very frazzled scum in mid to late D3 in the absence of kickstart. Occam's razor says this is the simple and obvious solution (yes, in spite of me raising the possibility that there is some complex masterplan behind it). Crucially, under this hypothesis it is possible to parse the D3 voting as follows: + Show Spoiler + When Corazon (at 28 0136) took the D3 voting up to KickStart (3): FatChunk (2): Chromatically, cakepie With time running out, FatChunk and Orangeremi are forced to distribute their votes: OrangeRemi -> FatChunk @28 0159 + Show Spoiler + On December 28 2012 01:59 Orangeremi wrote: The overwhelming vote count for Kick right now leads me to believe the scum are just hopping on his wagon. If he was actually scum, wouldn't the mafia would find another player to try and start a wagon for to save him. But that isn't happening. I think we need to reevaluate. In the meantime I'm going back to one of my initial reads. ##Vote: FatChunk Reason given: scum seems okay with the Kickstart wagon. FatChunk -> KickStart @28 0507 + Show Spoiler + On December 28 2012 05:07 FatChunk wrote: I literally just kept delaying posting for this reason. I have been quite lazy. OMGUS? First, I'd like to address something that gave cakepie a scumread on me: Me lynching omni for information. In that post of mine I prefaced the post with such a statement. I later began to develop why I think this would be a good lynch, followed by stating that I had a scumread on him. The town flip on omni makes us doubt Mocsta's cases on chrom and cakepie, and helps us look at relationships omni has with other players. My scum reads are for Kickstart, and orangeremi, and sHz. Followed by Sylencia. basically, the lurkers. Now i realize this is hypocritical because i lurk too. I think that mafia have let town go crazy and lynch themselves while they wait in the back on a weak LAL policy. But I think we're all learning now - posters that are coming active NOW are the ones trying to establish themselves as town (sHz, orangeremi,). I guess kickstart is an exception though, busy holidays? no defense whatsoever can't be smart. Kickstart: -Basically in the early game he makes the vote on the spag train to a town lynch. -Is very narrow-minded in whom he suspects scum. Poor scumhunter, makes a small effort in the vein of "I'll make a weak case against someone for them to shut it down, so that i look like a scumhunter!" against cakepie, shz. -His reads are basically shz. nobody else except a well-deflected stand against cakepie. Kick: who are your other two scum reads besides sHz and why? -bandwagonner -no effort to help town sHz: -One of the players who is attempting to establish themelves as town. -after 2 days of afk from christmas, shz posts: + Show Spoiler + On December 27 2012 13:42 shz wrote: while Orange declared him scummy on a few occasions but never actually voted or applied any real pressure. I don't think that anyone actually looked into Kick because of him, which could be a very clever scum-play. But is it? I don't know. I'm not sure if we could actually get any information on their relation if we lynch any of them. But I don't know if we actually could gain more information by lynching anyone else, and out of all the lurkier players, he seems to be the scumiest. I will probably vote for him. At this point, no one is a safe bet, but the safest seems to be Kick. This is really hard to get a grip on and in no way I am confidend in this days lynch. Fuck. -very mild reads, not confident in his scumread on kick. basically 50/50 read. What happens if Kick turns town, he looks like scum. if kick turns scum he looks like scum because he tried to save kick. Orangeremi: -my third suspect, basically the same as all the other lurkers -suspects me early on, with no explanation why. He just agrees with the case that Chrom put forward, and then claims that its his suspicion. why? because he has to pick another player in the lurkers to keep the attention off himself and his team. Is forcing it now to get pressure off his back. -one-sentence scum reads on players who are already under suspicion. -forced town-sympathetic posts of frustration. And regarding the discussion question: Chrom: i used to have suspicions on because he would aggressively twist my words and throw them back in my face. but I now realize that this can just be the aggressive nature of a towny. Has had some pretty good logic and scumhunting, however, like everyone else, has been wrong 100% of the time. Honestly, the effort put into this game makes me think he's town. From what I can tell he is the best scum read for alot of us: ##Vote: Kickstart terrible, terrible sheep, while distancing from Orange Yet when Chromatically offered shz wagon, and Kickstart appeared, both Orangeremi and FC jumped. I discussed my involvement (or, technically, the lack thereof) here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17368370 I have alluded in an that discussion that "shz wagon started to look like the correct kind of bait." whereas I was unable to get a response to my questioning/voting. What was “incorrect bait” on my part? The alternative wagon on FatChunk, because he is scum as well, so scum is forced between a rock and a hard place as long as kickstart was not available. They were not willing to bus him outright -- he was too valuable perhaps. And so the vote sits comfortably at 4:3, pending...and the rest is history. We’ve all already taken note of the terrible way that FC switched, and the way that OrangeRemi conveniently transfers blame for a potential mislynch onto Chromatically while not actually convinced shz is scum. If you go back to early N3 you’ll see I have been poking around for other players' reads on FC vs Orange vs Chrom (vs Shz), or checked if their read on shz has turned town due to the wagon, or offerred the possibility that not all of the voteswitch is scum. Several players have answered capably. But orange... What the (bleep)? Go read 22:20 KST onwards, if you haven’t already http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=17370236 How the @#$% is it possible to be surprised that aquanim and/or sylencia are not dead by NK yet, [given] "what they've contributed"? Sylencia has been rather quiet and has never been a big threat to scum. Why on earth would scum spend NK on a mildly suspicious, inscrutable player rather than a clear townie threat? Utter rubbish and a distraction. Aquanim was certainly ripe to be killed by scum tonight. But there is no way scum needed to kill him N1 (after he led the spag mislynch) and he kept a lower profile D2, so it is easy to argue that yamato with his fresh reads is a better NK than whatever towncred basis there is for killing Aqua. When pressured, Orange follows up with a load of crap that Syl and I talked over for a bit. Is this a scumslip? Perhaps scum coach is trying to help cook something up, but orange is not up to the execution? If orange is town who switched votes and would admit it is stupid, why is he not going after fatchunk, who he has been suspicious of for a long time? Instead, he tries to tell me that he thinks it is most likely that neither Chrom nor FC are scum either, and that all remaining scum are hidden on the Kick wagon. Why not FC? And then he points to Aqua as Syl, forced to identify his most likely hidden scum on the wagon. Basis? That they’ve survived so long without being offed by scum... when easy explanations exist for why that is the case. Words fail me. okay, so? Scum has competing priorities upon their single KP:
Not all of the objectives necessarily align all the time. With this in mind, we can consider the possibilities already raised between syl and myself (obviously, we will not address the first point): + Show Spoiler + If fc/orange scum kill shz, they could try to finger Chrom and may try to convince me to their side, while claiming that they are hapless sheep. They successfully kill off a player who has arguably gained a lot of townie points as a result of the D3 vote. If FC/orange scum kill me, it’s a WIFOM bomb against Chrom and whoever else, based on me “getting close to the answer” of other scum safely hidden on the Kick wagon. I certainly seem more open to other scumteam possibilities besides FC/orange, so killing me would be a misdirection, and offing a clear town player in their mind. But what will they hope to do against the remaining town? The other possibilities arising from the posts [/spoiler] If FC/orange scum kill Aquanim or Syl, dumb WIFOM happens re: orangeremi’s 22:20 and 23:17 posts. Killing aqua also disposes of a threat, and a strong townread for many.[/spoiler] The importance of night actions PRs truly start coming into their usefulness around now. If we assume neither a cop nor vig nor sk in this game, RB has a great chance of winning the game for us as long as he has managed to remain hidden and is unblocked. Raw odds of blocking scum RB and/or NK in N3 is 1/7, and much higher as long as the RB is savvy about his targeting -- I’d say as good as 25~33%. If the RB has stayed hidden, and we can push the game to conclusion without him claiming, then that would be best. Don’t claim yet, if you can! But, I have my reasons to think that there might be more to this game than RBs. But it is still dangerous to discuss it. We will have to see as things progress. What now? If I live, I will push top scumreads according to above and react as needed to the NK. Town should not hesitate to try to tear my case apart, and present alternative explanations for any point raised. If I don’t make it through the night: + Show Spoiler + If SK is not evident, I want you guys to push Orange, then FatChunk... but you were going to do that anyway, right? If SK rears his head: good luck, you’ll need it. Caution: one NK does not automatically imply no SK. | ||
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
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Promethelax
Canada7089 Posts
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Promethelax
Canada7089 Posts
Flavour update later maybe. Packing to jump on a plane right now. | ||
shz
Germany2686 Posts
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
 GLHF/obs please | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
Roleblocked claims gogogo | ||
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Corazon
United States3230 Posts
On December 29 2012 08:44 Chromatically wrote: I don't think that it would be a stupid move for scumteam to switch. If it had worked, with one more person switching, town would be in a very bad position. It would be 4-3, and the sheeping townie would be an easy mislynch to win the game. They went for it, it didn't work. So you're basically saying that Orange and FC are both scum, and that you switching was not part of this scum move? @Cake- I'll give a little bit about each person who stayed on kick. Myself: I felt like Kick was the safest lynch, simple as that. His play had not been helpful to the town, and appeared scummy. Looks like I was right. Aqua: I don't believe that Aqua is the scum staying on the wagon. His play and contribution has been very beneficial too the town. Too beneficial to be a scum. Shz: Well, Shz was not going to vote for himself. Syl: Since I haven't implicated anyone as scum yet, you would think that I would have to say that Syl as scum. However, after thinking about it, I think that all of the scum switched onto Shz as an attempt to save Kick from being lynched. While Syl was lurking for the most part of D1 and D2, his efforts on D3 have changed my opinion on him. It could be possible that people were out while the Shz wagon started, because it all happened in the last 30 minutes before the deadline. However, that is my brief answer to your question. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On December 28 2012 23:17 Orangeremi wrote: Why haven't they been night killed yet? I'm trying to figure it out. I suppose mocsta and yamato weren't bad nightkills, but I think these players (maybe aqua more than syl) should be up there. If they aren't nk'd tonight I'm going to think [snip] Well, Aqua did get NK'd. This does not, however, excuse you from answering my earlier questions. Why were you surprised that Aqua and Syl had not been NK'd in the first two nights? This implies you have reason to expect that they were higher priority targets for scum at some point in N1 and/or N2 compared to the people who were actually killed, namely mocsta and yamato. What reason do you have to expect that Aqua and/or Syl should have been dead by the hands of scum before N3? Are they so great a threat to the scum team that they should have taken precedence over mocsta on N1, and yamato on N2? Or is there some other reason? Also, On December 28 2012 22:20 Orangeremi wrote: I still want to wait to see who gets killed tonight. I'm really curious who they'll pick. Well let's hear what your thoughts on the flip are, since you clearly had this on your mind before. ----- I'm going to get breakfast and do morning things for now, be back in a bit | ||
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