EPTIt's an irrelevant question? I think that both are scum. Both of their vote posts are bad, both of them were scummy anyway. If I absolutely had to choose one, it would probably be FC because I think that he's scummier and his post is more contrived.
Newbie Mini Mafia XXXIII - Page 63
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Chromatically
United States1700 Posts
It's an irrelevant question? I think that both are scum. Both of their vote posts are bad, both of them were scummy anyway. If I absolutely had to choose one, it would probably be FC because I think that he's scummier and his post is more contrived. | ||
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Sylencia
Australia1057 Posts
In terms of Kick's actions, he was claiming shz was scum from Day 2, so it's not like he found a window of opportunity to bus shz, he's did it for almost a week. Instead, I feel like it's the people who switched votes who saw it as a window of opportunity to grab the game right there, since it was such a hasty move as well I don't see it as anything but extremely suspicious. Also only just noticed I missed Chrom's post from yesterday: On December 28 2012 06:56 Chromatically wrote: I don't see any scumteam that doesn't include shz and Syl, and I see no scumteam that includes Kick. Both claims look to be completely false, and insanely suspicious too. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
If both FC and chrom are misguided townies, what was Kickstart up to? How has he managed to misdirect both FC and yourself onto chrom's case? And who among the Kick wagon would you finger as the two likely scum, looking to gain town cred off of Kickstart's 'sacrifice' play? | ||
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Sylencia
Australia1057 Posts
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Chromatically
United States1700 Posts
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cakepie
985 Posts
On December 28 2012 11:13 cDgCorazon wrote: 1. Realized that there was a window of opportunity to get Shz lynched, and if he flipped scum, all of the pressure would be off him because he voted off scum. 2. Realized that he might not get lynched and decided to actually try. Was not trying to bus, just trying to stay alive. I think you're overlooking some possibilities: 3: Kick's play is a calculated chaos play betting on the sheeping tendencies we have already seen the past two days. It enables massive WIFOM bombs, while perhaps part of the scumteam stays on the Kick wagon to keep distance and gain town cred, while townies make a fool of themselves. 4: (less likely) Kick's is scum buddy with shz, but his play is not a bus, nor an attempt to stay alive. Instead, it a calculated gambit: stick a lousy case on shz all of D2 without intent to bus, and then bring the vote on shz in order to clear shz from suspicion. But this would have been incredibly ballsy seeing how close we came to actually lynching shz instead, with Kick remaining under heavy suspicion -- it would have needed the last remaining scum to be very, very safe before scum would want to try something like that. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
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Aquanim
Australia2849 Posts
On December 28 2012 12:38 cakepie wrote: @Aquanim: Your thoughts on the hypothesis that "FC/Orange scumteam too easy" Well, if they'd succeeded in pushing a mislynch on Shz (assuming FC/Orange scumteam) then we'd be in a bad way - 3 scum, LYLO, and we'd have to pick the scum from Kick, FC, Orange, Chromatic, and whoever else jumped on to put Shz over the edge. I've believed since the end of night two that FC/Orange were very likely scum and nothing they've done changes that. There's no point in chasing unlikely hypotheses until the obvious one has been eliminated. It's not like we're dealing with Marv or Ace-quality scum in a newbie, after all. | ||
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Chromatically
United States1700 Posts
On December 28 2012 08:58 FatChunk wrote: okay well I think that either of the two people are scum: sHz and kickstart, and to be honest the last post of shz on the 27th was really scummy to me. I hope we're right. ##unvote ##Vote: sHz On December 27 2012 14:30 shz wrote: Ome thing to note though, which seems very odd to me. If we misslynch today, we pretty much fucked, so it should be in scums interest to direct us towards a misslynch, to nearly lock that game down. But there seems to be no oposition towards lynching Kick. Could this mean that mafia is fine with that lynch? Which would mean we are wrong. Really? This was shz's last post on the 27th by forum time. By what reasoning did you somehow decide that this post, made a while ago, somehow suddenly made shz scummier that Kickstart? | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On December 28 2012 12:13 Sylencia wrote: At this point the possible remaining scum teams I can see being feasible are 2 of Chrom, Orange and FC, with Orange and Fatchunk's play in the last half hour looking absolutely ridiculous, if they are both scum, I'd laugh pretty hard and how messed up this game became. 1. how would you order the three suspects? 2. What of shz? Earlier, you mentioned that his loyalty was still "up in the air": On December 26 2012 19:30 Sylencia wrote: The risk of voting out shz is that if he is town, we're really leaving ourselves vulnerable to scum manipulation in votes. The majority of the town has not really been active in choosing votes, there's just a lot of bandwagoning happening. shz, while he has been voting non-optimally, still gives us a reasonable chance of voting out scum if we find one, if he is town. The problem lies with his loyalty, which is up in the air, but I am honestly unsure of his status. If we leave in shz and he is scum, the reverse of what I mentioned just now happens, where he can easily manipulate the votes with the rest of the scum playing a bandwagon game, requiring only one extra vote to end the game. This can easily be done, and it's rather risky. Personally, I'd still consider Kick a higher priority simply because it's easier to tell by the end of the next day what shz is since he does participate in the discussions. Does kickstart's shz vote + the failed switch convince you that Shz is town? We've lynched kickstart, but shz's "non-optimal" voting may still be a liability as town, or mask his intentions as a bandwagoning scum. How would you assess his participation in D3 discussions, notwithstanding the failed wagon on him? | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On December 28 2012 12:15 Chromatically wrote: What I said there was a correct conclusion drawn from an incorrect premise. I assumed that Orange and FC weren't in a team together because Orange had voted FC before and was voting him now. Because of the voteswitch and the scumteam's willingness to bus this game, that's obviously a bad assumption. Sorry chrom, what is this in response to again? | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On December 28 2012 14:31 cakepie wrote: Sorry chrom, what is this in response to again? Nvm figured it out, it's to address Syl's point to your Dec 28 06:56 post. | ||
shz
Germany2686 Posts
On December 28 2012 09:16 cakepie wrote: I was ready to vote Kick at XX:59, but with the tie vote rule, I decided to just sit here and sip my coffee instead. Could you please explain why? What was your reasoning behind voting Kick at 59 when you could have done it earlier? | ||
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Corazon
United States3230 Posts
On December 28 2012 14:46 shz wrote: Could you please explain why? What was your reasoning behind voting Kick at 59 when you could have done it earlier? Because kick would have gotten lynched anyways. Cake's vote would not have mattered. What he's basically saying is that he wanted kick to be lynched. | ||
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shz
Germany2686 Posts
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Corazon
United States3230 Posts
On December 28 2012 14:55 shz wrote: But why wait until :59? Because he voted to lynch FC. He was on the fence of the whole Shz/Kick lynching trains. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On December 28 2012 14:58 cDgCorazon wrote: Because he voted to lynch FC. He was on the fence of the whole Shz/Kick lynching trains. Not quite. Wait for my explanatory post. | ||
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Corazon
United States3230 Posts
Well that's what his vote meant. He probably has a good explanation for it. | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
On December 28 2012 14:46 shz wrote: Could you please explain why? What was your reasoning behind voting Kick at 59 when you could have done it earlier? I'll be glad to step you through my late-D3 experience. I woke up to the posts at around 7:10KST, Kickstart was still away, and counting up the votes it was still rather even at kickstart 4, fatchunk 3. Nothing much changed overnight, and no one had cared to offer much else in response to my questions; neither scum nor lurker town were baited out, and I was frustrated. My original intention had been to try to get some discussion and voting activity going while I was asleep, so that I could assess it, as well as vote back onto Kickstart if needed. But: The lynch is pretty much set unless we get some crazy swing going elsewhere, so I don't see that moving my vote would do anything here. Voting back onto Kickstart would simply give the wagon the final push it needed, and figuratively turn the ignition on the obvious scum bus. I would not do it. On the other hand, a swing elsewhere would be ridiculous crazy either way you look at it. Would enough townies sheep it? How many scum would have to risk sticking their necks out to pull something like this off? Hence I was extremely skeptical of a swing onto shz wagon, initiated by Chromatically: On December 28 2012 08:49 cakepie wrote: Numerically, you need to move two people off the Kickstart wagon onto shz, assuming kickstart is really headed for a modkill. (yes, even if you get all FC votes to consolidate onto shz, due to tie vote) shz is here, but obviously not likely to vote for himself. Aquanim is here. Who else have we got to work with? The implications I was trying to make, if you read beteen the lines: besides Chromatically, Aquanim, shz and myself are conspicuously present. Others may be lurking -- have not posted in the past hour, while useful discussion had been ongoing. Who cares enough to be actively discussing, and who is just bumming around uselessly? Shz, with his 8:08KST post, was locked in either as a townie in despair, or scum bus on Kickstart. Furthermore, I firmly believed Aquanim would not be budged, and I had been prepared to switch my vote back onto Kickstart to begin with anyway, if things changed sufficiently while I was asleep. But I saw a possibility to make the voting interesting for later analysis, so I tried to make it look like there was enough of a possibility of switching, in order to draw out scum or bad sheep. My key questions to myself at that point: Are sheeping townies really so bad as to not learn their lesson, and still sheep again? - I should really hope not, but who knows? Are scum really going to switch wagons en masse in a ridiculously obvious move? - if Kickstart is scum about to be lynched, then they're in a bit of disarray anyways, might as well give it a shot. Whatever the case, it would give us people to scrutinize, and did not threaten to derail the kickstart lynch yet, so I was resolved to let it run for a bit and see if it went anywhere. Crucially, we get to this post: On December 28 2012 08:51 cakepie wrote: This is remarkably important. If no replacement, we should be looking to use our votes elsewhere. This is me, caught up to 08:49. With 10 minutes to go, my mind was considering the following: - if replacement, then the kickstart lynch should be pushed through due to the risk of a replacement for possibly scum kick playing completely differently, and making it impossible to read kick/replacement - if modkill, then kick dies either way scum or town, and it is more important to have votes elsewhere for the purposes of analysis. My decision of staying on the FatChunk pressure or moving back to Kickstart depended on this. Although I also had my eye on OrangeRemi, there was more of a credible threat going on FatChunk, so there my vote stayed. Of course, once I posted that I saw Kickstart's vote, leading to: On December 28 2012 08:53 cakepie wrote: Oh god kickstart WHAT THE FUCK (WIFOM) fact: I actually finished typing in a vote on Kickstart along with this post, but I paused and realized it would be too soon if I did that. I wanted to wait and see who would make the jump off from the Kickstart wagon onto shz, now that Kickstart being in the picture made a mass voteswitch marginally numerically viable, plus the fact that a shz wagon started to look like the correct kind of bait. So I stayed my hand, and deleted the vote before posting, waiting to see what would happen. Lo and behold, we have Orangeremi switching, while fingering Chromatically to be blamed for a potential mislynch. Which was fine by me -- 8:55 and still room for one more to safely switch. I checked my math again, with the benefit of coffee this time. Yep, let's wait a while yet, let the tension build up. ...aaand FatChunk makes the switch. It is 8:58. I start preparing my vote in case it is needed. Refresh -- okay, it's just Chrom and Aqua, time 8:59. Refresh again -- oh snap, it's the votecount -- well, thank goodness my vote wasn't needed. Post the vote anyway? Nah - don't want to anger the hosts, and incoming WIFOM is already guaranteed, whether I post the vote or not. Celebrate a bit, refill coffee, get ready to analyze voting. And that's what happened. (Note: withholding one scumhunting observation that is not directly relevant to this discussion) ----- Anything else before I pop out of here? | ||
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cakepie
985 Posts
Assume not all scum is stupidly trying to swing onto together with Kickstart. Out of chrom, orange, and fc, who is the scum that jumped wagons, and who is the misguided town? And where would the remaining scum be hiding? | ||
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