EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XX - Page 21
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
BassInSpace
Australia165 Posts
| ||
|
YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
On July 07 2012 13:03 Hapahauli wrote: Its interesting to bring up that the Detective is not a very useful role now. Even if a player shows up red, there's still a 50% chance he's townie (miller). As for checking lazer, don't. We have a lot of posts on lazer, and it would be much more useful for the tracker and detective to use their night actions on people with a lower post count. 50% is still very good. And honestly, lynching a miller isn't a terrible thing anyway. On another note: I think based on the the time the votes were made TMG is cleared (despite what I said earlier), for now. He made his vote when laser and hopeless had equal number of votes at 4. This occurred 90 minutes before deadline. For similar reason, this also clears evulrabbitz. After TMG's vote, lazer obviously voted for hopeless, which tied their votes at 5 a piece. Evulrabbitz then broke the tie, voting for evulrabbitz, 23 minutes before the deadline. Above two arguments would only hold if lazer was not scum. And if lazer was scum, he's probably not a god father because hopeless did vote against him to tie the vote counts. He did this very close to the deadline, and if lazer was godfather, I don't think hopeless would have risked someone else lynching godfather in lazer. Hopeless would have just chosen to not post. However, it is true that hopeless may not have thought about this. Only other exception to this would be that evulrabbitz is one of the scum team and hopeless and evulrabbitz discussed in quiet talk that evulrabbitz would vote against hopeless to prevent lazer godfather mislynch. This again is not likely as evulrabbitz's vote comes 29 minutes after lazer's vote, rather than immediately. If someone else had voted against lazer, he would have accrued 6 votes first, and evulrabbitz could not have prevented lazer lynch. And I think Release is probably town based on his suspicion of Lazer, Jingle, and me being mafia. Scum, I think, would have acknowledged possibility of hopeless being mafia or at least not post at all. Plus, release's response seemed genuine. However, this conclusion is significantly weaker than first two town reads above, at least on factual grounds. So town reads: hapahuli, TMG, evulrabbitz Also (again assuming that lazer is not a scum), I would have expected scums would have tried to get on lazer's badwagon. Of course there are exceptional possibilities: 1. they were just not around during the deadline 2. they were already voting for lazer 3. they feared that changing their votes would make them suspicious I have no idea about #1. But aside from Khorrus, who was not around ever, Mackin who had his vote on me could have easily switched his vote without buying suspicion. When the number of votes between lazer and hopeless were so close, I think scum Makin would have contributed toward lazer lynch (again, given that lazer is not scum and Makin was around during deadline). This leaves the following possible scum list: JingleHell JieXian The_Zen_Man Bassinspace (although he had his vote on hopeless, he was not able to change it anyway because it would brought so much suspicion last minute) Also, given that Khorrus will be modkilled within 24 hours if no replacement is found, I would think he's probably not scum, especially after scum got lynched D1. We all want good, sort of balanced game from the observers' point of view. | ||
|
YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
For similar reason, this also clears evulrabbitz. After TMG's vote, lazer, as expected, voted for hopeless, which tied their votes at 5 a piece. Evulrabbitz then broke the tie, voting for hopeless, 23 minutes before the deadline. At these time points which were so close to the deadline, it was clear that each of their votes would make a definite impact. Especially since there was no clear consensus on hopeless being the scum (except for hapahuli, even people who were voting for him, myself included, projected their doubt on hopeless being scum but that it was the better choice between lazer and hopeless) it would not have been that suspicious to place their lynch deciding vote on lazer, rather than hopeless. | ||
|
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
I believe JingleHell has shown a pattern of anti-town mentality throughout Day 1. This will be made clear in his case of LazerMonkey, his defense of Hopelessder1, and his anti-town viewpoints/stances. My commentary will be found italicized in select quotes below. In addition, all hyperlinks will be underlined. Jingle's "Case" against LazerMonkey Jingle's misread isn't bad in itself, but his reasoning/rationale is extremely suspect. Jingle has a suspicious change of heart about Lazer, initially coming to the defense of LazerMonkey: On July 05 2012 23:08 JingleHell wrote: I do wish we could stop looking at Lazer's first post as "contradictory". Actually, for that matter, I wish we would leave alone all the initial burst of posting, the entire purpose is to get people talking, which was accomplished. Frankly, I don't think Lazer's first post felt scummy, because while it was only very basic, it was an effort to do the same thing I accomplished by bringing up sex toys. I've just discovered that something meaningless works better. (calls attention away from Lazer's first post. Very friendly.) Instead of cluttering things up, I'll just say that Bass and Lazer's analysis on TMG sounds good, and I'll be interested in seeing what he has to say. (complement's Lazer's analysis on a non-controversial subject) After he is suspected by Lazer, Jingle immediately turns around and fires a vote against Lazer. Note in particular the way he defends himself and his rationale: On July 06 2012 22:33 JingleHell wrote: I'm not playing nice, I'm telling them to make cases on you not be grounded on something that's clearly down to how you read it. (Defends Jingle to open the post!!!) I'm not bothering to post here as much because frankly, I'd rather watch people post when it looks like a half schitzo paranoid delusional 3 headed monster shouting at itself. Don't like it, maybe people should stop making 30 second cases and then chasing the next person that posts around. (Makes a critique of the "posting quality" of the thread despite making it a point to create discussion earlier. Ad hominem attacks.) If you're so suspicious of me, do us all a favor, vote for me, and watch me flip green. It'll be tons of information that nobody will use. (Doesn't defend himself, simply takes himself for granted as green) On July 06 2012 23:39 JingleHell wrote: You have yet to ask me anything worth my time or effort in answering, but feel free to get me mislynched. (Still doesn't defend himself) I never claimed not to have been part of the shouting earlier, but it's gotten much much worse, since now everyone talking a lot is accusing almost everyone else who isn't. (Not consistent with his pre-game stance. Accusations are NEVER a bad thing early in the game) Me personally, I'll be enjoying seeing what comes at the end of the day, as it will provide us with plenty of information. For the time being, though, ##Vote Lazermonkey It's got to be somewhere, and your self-love and expectation that everyone else will dance to your tune strikes me as scummy. (Blames people for throwing around accusations, then turns around and votes Lazermonkey for unclear rationale. Just read this thing. Jingle continues to pressure LazerMonkey and take a hard stance on him, yet never provides analysis and resorts to vague/unclear rationale - a common mafia trait. A considerable amount of it is flaming, and I suggest you take a look at Jingle's Filter (p3 and 4). Note that Jingle focuses his attacks on generalizations and never attempts to analyze the content of LazerMonkey's posts. I'm going to pick out two of the worst quotes below: On July 07 2012 04:41 JingleHell wrote: Saying you're wrong and saying we're unconvinced are two entirely different things. Why the excessive defense of Lazer, exactly? You call it a bandwagon, even though it seems to be multiple people who have decided that he's at best unintentionally divisive, and at worst scum. Either way, if he gets lynched, he won't be missed, as he's not going to help the town win in either case. (This is mafia-rationale. Vote to lynch scum, not vote to lynch someone because he wont be missed. On July 07 2012 05:09 JingleHell wrote: Uhm, You haven't "proven" anything, you've just provided anecdotal and circumstancial evidence. The same thing I'm using to say I'm not feeling scum out of him at the moment. I am, however, getting an "actively useless or active scum" vibe out of lazer. I get that in the best case, you want to be the hero by swaying everyone over, but it's not working. Deal with it. Add to your case, or consider other people as well. You didn't seem to have a problem considering almost everyone else earlier in the game... back when there was more chaos and less votes on Lazer... ("feeling" and "vibe" is not enough for a case. Its mafia-rationale. This is made worse by the fact that he has never attempted an analysis of LazerMonkey's posts.) Jingle's Defense of Hopeless1der Jingle is very adamant that Hopeless is innocent, but never provides an analysis. He bases his defense on "feelings" and "vibes" instead of logic - a huge mafia trait. In the first quote, he makes a defense based on Hopeless's meta that's straight-up false, proven by my earlier meta analysis of Townie Hopeless. On July 05 2012 08:29 JingleHell wrote: And I made a very strong read against him and another player in XIX, the reads being linked, and was promptly shot N1, after which, when I wasn't pushing at them, they ignored the attacks completely, pointed to WIFOM, and started trying to direct the town. Mislynch #2 ensued. Hopeless's play is different enough from D1 there, where I won't be convinced he's town unless he flips, that I'm convinced he's town here. In particular he doesn't seem scared of prolific posting in the early game. (This is false. Townie Hopeless and Mafia Hopeless post lots of fluff. This comment was made on page 6 of the thread, and Hopeless hadn't even posted his case on me yet.) And I prefer substantial pressure. If there's nothing to refute, there's no argument to give off an odor. And the odds of hitting a townie with random votes are way higher than the odds of hitting scum. On July 07 2012 04:54 JingleHell wrote: If you missed what I already said about Hopeless, or aren't interested in my current guesses based off of meta, that's up to you. But until/unless my meta guesses are proven wrong by a flip in his other game, I'm unconvinced. I can't help it if you aren't reading enough to have seen what I said, and I can't make you buy in to it, but to suggest that I haven't answered that is outright fallacious. (continues to rely on false meta-read. This is also after my huge meta analysis on Hopeless was posted) Of course, I'd expect nothing more from someone who spent a fair amount of energy buying into Lazer's nonexistent case against me. I'm not entirely convinced you two aren't working together, perhaps in a scum QT? On July 07 2012 05:09 JingleHell wrote: Uhm, You haven't "proven" anything, you've just provided anecdotal and circumstancial evidence. The same thing I'm using to say I'm not feeling scum out of him at the moment. (Not feeling scum. lol.) I am, however, getting an "actively useless or active scum" vibe out of lazer. I get that in the best case, you want to be the hero by swaying everyone over, but it's not working. Deal with it. Add to your case, or consider other people as well. You didn't seem to have a problem considering almost everyone else earlier in the game... back when there was more chaos and less votes on Lazer... JingleHell's Anti-Town Mentality I've saved the best for last. JingleHell takes clear anti-town stances and tries to represent them as pro-town. First, Jingle rationalizes lynching Lazer on the basis that "he won't be missed." This is a mafia-excuse for a mislynch. On July 07 2012 04:41 JingleHell wrote: Saying you're wrong and saying we're unconvinced are two entirely different things. Why the excessive defense of Lazer, exactly? You call it a bandwagon, even though it seems to be multiple people who have decided that he's at best unintentionally divisive, and at worst scum. Either way, if he gets lynched, he won't be missed, as he's not going to help the town win in either case. Next, Jingle declares typical mafia-reads as bad, and encourages people to look for opposite-tells to determine mafia - in a newbie game. This is insane, even at high levels of play! This is spewing with mafia-mentality, looking to stir suspicion at non-suspicious players. On July 07 2012 00:37 JingleHell wrote: I already did. It's inconclusive, but it's already on the record. The big issue is that it's based in meta from a game where he hasn't flipped yet. And, of course, most of the people here are so busy being too smart for their own good that they can't realize that I'm actually not being scummy. I also expect a D1 lynch to almost always be a mislynch, because the odds of latching onto the right person with minimal information are kind of bad. And, of course, if anyone feels the need to put together a case against me that isn't smoke and mirrors, I'll happily respond, but frankly, under the current circumstances, I'd rather provide information via getting mislynched than beat my head against the brick wall of the people going berserk on attacking everyone. Actually, if we want to find out who's being scummy, since this is a newbie game, is look for the people who are trying too hard to be the polar opposite of scummy based on the various guides. So look for prolific posters who find a way to turn every single word into a scumslip, are obsessed with analysis, and want to take the lead. You should find at least two scum that way. Jingle claims that analyzing my case will lead to "clutter" in the thread. Townies have no motivation to discourage or not provide analysis. Instead, he clutters the entirety of page 17 with smaller posts. On July 07 2012 05:38 JingleHell wrote: Well, I could either clutter up the thread by breaking down every individual point of yours that I don't find particularly compelling, which I'm sure scum would love, since chaos and distraction are their tactics, or I could trust that people will read through and decide for themselves, because if they aren't doing that, whether they agree with me or not, we're doomed to lose to the scum. I should think that votes can stand for themselves when the lynch is decided. Unless you have some real, solid information you're not sharing (It's D1, so only scum do), then you're just guessing, like everyone else, based on WIFOM. Don't be offended that other people disagree with you. Finally, he uses a "bet" as justification for a lynch rather than trying to look for suspicious players. More mafia-mentality. On July 07 2012 06:50 JingleHell wrote: How about a little bet, Hapahauli. If Lazer flips Red, we lynch you tomorrow for your (getting ridiculous) defense of him. If he flips town, lynch me. Lastly, there are many mafia-oriented contradictions in Jingle's gameplay. I'll be hyperlinking the posts (they will appear underlined) 1) Jingle is unnaturally fearful of bandwagoning, yet actively contributes to the bandwagon against LazerMonkey for horrible rationale (as evidenced by the previous content in this post). 2) Jingle bases his entire day-one play discussing EvulRabbit's name as a sex toy and flinging Votes and accusations, then blames people for the exact same thing in this post. In conclusion, JingleHell's play is suspicious in a Mafia-Oriented way. He has shown a clear anti-town mentality through his casework, defense of Hopeless, and mafia-favoring stances/advice. The Day 1 lynch was very close. JingleHell fits the description of a Mafia member who tried to shift focus off Hopeless1der and start a bandwagon against LazerMonkey. He defends Hopeless and accuses LazerMonkey on questionable logic, and makes every attempt to discredit the person (me) pushing for Hopeless's lynch. JingleHell is Mafia | ||
|
YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
| ||
|
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
@ YourHarry - Lynching anyone but mafia is pretty fucking terrible. Your analysis on the recent vote as it pertains to LazerMonkey's innocence is very well thought out. On voting habits, TMG and evulrabbitz check out very well, since they had the chance to swing the vote over to Lazer as opposed to hopeless. I highly disagree on your stance on Bass_in_Space for now, as he had the opportunity to join the strong bandwagon on Lazer a few hours before the deadline and didn't take it. In addition, we cannot make a judgement on the guilt/innocence of Khorrus, since he literally made two posts. The first was fluff, and the second was him asking for a replacement. The second post is key here. | ||
|
YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
On July 07 2012 15:01 Hapahauli wrote: @ YourHarry - Lynching anyone but mafia is pretty fucking terrible. Your analysis on the recent vote as it pertains to LazerMonkey's innocence is very well thought out. On voting habits, TMG and evulrabbitz check out very well, since they had the chance to swing the vote over to Lazer as opposed to hopeless. I highly disagree on your stance on Bass_in_Space for now, as he had the opportunity to join the strong bandwagon on Lazer a few hours before the deadline and didn't take it. In addition, we cannot make a judgement on the guilt/innocence of Khorrus, since he literally made two posts. The first was fluff, and the second was him asking for a replacement. The second post is key here. First 50% of lynching scum, at least in this stage, is wonderful. Second, power role mislynch is much worse than vanilla town mislynch which is significantly worse than miller lynch. This is especially the case, now that mafia role cop is no more. Whether having a miller alive or not is beneficial is arguable. Mislynch earlier is usually better than mislynch later. And detective that checks out scum in miller later in game could be worse than miller mislynch in early game. Regarding Bass_in_Space, you may be right. He had the opportunity to change, but it should be considered that it would have been more difficult for him to do so, at least compared to others who had their votes on players other than lazer or hopeless. My argument about Khorrus mostly relies on mod's willingness to modkill. Not sure if it's a good style to talk about it here. | ||
|
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
| ||
|
Release
United States4397 Posts
But it makes me uncomfortable to feel that he is scum, because then YourHarry would be the other scum (those two had a little OMGUS battle and then suddenly reconciled, great way to clutter the thread), leaving no place for Lazer to be scum, which i still think is true. And mackin... | ||
|
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=349066¤tpage=20#397 If we start this whole LazerMonkey bandwaggoning shit again without proper evidence, I'm going to drive to the library and bang my head against every desk I see. | ||
|
YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
I maintain that it was not an OMGUS battle, at least from my perspective. I had valid reason, at least from what little was available at the time, to suspect Jingle. And if Jingle is scum, my quick reconciliation is not necessarily scummy. At best, it's WIFOM. One can argue that scums would be hesitant to dismiss each other's scuminess, in fear that 1) obvious buddying may make both of them suspicious, exactly how you are suspecting both of us 2) other's scum flip will incriminate them. Either way, my actions on end of day 1 to place the one of the deciding votes on Hopeless (especially when I previously expressed my opinion that I didn't think hopeless was particularly scummy, I could have easily justified my vote against someone else) and my willingness to vote against Jingle now should make me unlikely to be scum. Also, in regards to miller providing a difficulty for town victory: miller counters mafia role cop and detective is soft countered by miller. Mafia role cop is gone and detective is still alive. So, miller's value to town is at extreme minimum. Of course, if detective was nonexistant, miller would be as good as vanilla townie. | ||
|
YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
Actually, miller could be somewhat useful if the last mafia standing is the godfather. In such a case, any "innocent" investigation would be a null-tell, and "guilty" investigation would mean miller, a proven townie. | ||
|
Lazermonkey
Sweden2176 Posts
I'm not too keen on all this night discussion. A question you should probebly ask yourself when posting in the middle of the night ''Does it actually help town if I post right now, or can I just as well wait untill 1 minute before deadline to post''. So, posting your reads right now is not a good idea as it will only help scum to find an optimal target. Exception would be Evul or Hapa as these guys are as confirmed townies as you can possibly get without actually flipping. Asking questions etc. tho is 100% fine imo. As for the medic, healing either Evul or Hapa is fine for me. | ||
|
The_Zen_Man
Sweden202 Posts
| ||
|
Lazermonkey
Sweden2176 Posts
On July 07 2012 15:19 Release wrote: Release, I know from our last game that making reads isn't your strenght as town, if that is what you are. You were wrong about almost every read in that game but still you helped town by being the most active person in the game + good at pressuring people. You were already wrong about Hope. I have(I think) given answers to all your points of suspicion on me. I can understand that you might not be convinced by those answers but in that case post why. I have nothing to hide as I am town, so I should be able to give a good answer every question you ask. Well i read the Jingle case and i can't disagree with it. But it makes me uncomfortable to feel that he is scum, because then YourHarry would be the other scum (those two had a little OMGUS battle and then suddenly reconciled, great way to clutter the thread), leaving no place for Lazer to be scum, which i still think is true. And mackin... Also Release, as of now your two main points of suspicion on me(at least if I'm reading your filter) is that my first post is bad and the sex toy thingie. As for the first post, I don't agree with you and you know that. I can't seem to convince you even tho a fake DT claim would have caused us the game if it hadn't been for some serious luck on our part. Regarding the sex toys, I have never said that it was outright scummy. You are either lying here or didn't read good enough. My concerns here was that discussing sex toys is just way worse than discussing blues/policy and I STRONGLY stand by this still. Tbh can you please give me some examples of the good effects of the sex toy discussion? Because I can't really find any. | ||
|
Lazermonkey
Sweden2176 Posts
On July 07 2012 19:15 The_Zen_Man wrote: Yo Ken_Man. What is your stance on me as of now? You thought I was the scummiest person in the game before the lynch, do stand by that? You probebly shouldn't say it right now but include it in the night post : ).Cant say im too suprised, as my choice was between hope and lazer, and they were about equally scummy too me(lazer obvously more). But for now, lets just wait out the night. | ||
|
Lazermonkey
Sweden2176 Posts
On July 07 2012 12:50 JieXian wrote: Yes there is 50% chance for me to be godfather if I'm mafia. But I guess you are implying that I have a higher chance of being godfather than being roleblocker? In that case, why?Oh ya and if anyone wants to check Lazer, don't because there's a high chance he's godfather if he's mafia | ||
|
marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
On July 07 2012 15:12 Hapahauli wrote: I don't think analyzing host tendencies is particularly good grounds to determine innocence. Then again, I'm not familiar with Radfield's host meta xD Correct, you cannot infer one way or another which alignment he is. We try our absolute best to replace either alignment for Day 1 especially. | ||
|
BassInSpace
Australia165 Posts
As it stands, things are obviously looking bad for you Jingle. If you are town, I think you could've avoided a lot of this had you simply not posted the way you have to belittle others. You may be town and know it, but sticking to your cases and reads and refusing to post your thoughts on other people's cases doesn't help in convincing us that you're town (as happened with your refusal to properly address Hapa's case against Hopeless, instead choosing to rely solely on your meta analysis of Hopeless in a game where he hadn't even flipped yet). Though I agree in general with Hapa's case against you (except for a few points, such as his use of you saying you have "feelings" and vibes" about Hopeless. This is just semantics, "feeling" and "vibe" can just as easily be replaced with "I think/don't think he's scummy"), I'm ready and willing to hear what you have to say. I must say though, this is a strong point against you: On July 07 2012 04:41 JingleHell wrote: Saying you're wrong and saying we're unconvinced are two entirely different things. Why the excessive defense of Lazer, exactly? You call it a bandwagon, even though it seems to be multiple people who have decided that he's at best unintentionally divisive, and at worst scum. Either way, if he gets lynched, he won't be missed, as he's not going to help the town win in either case. If you feel that Lazer's posting is that bad, just ignore it. Lynching him regardless of whether he is town or mafia hurts town, since that's one more person mafia will have to shoot and one more town vote. Give us a little credit, we can spot when a good case is being made and when there isn't a very good case. As you can see, no one has jumped on any of Lazer's reads yet. YourHarry, I am not a fan of you focusing so heavily on power roles. There is a reason (and correct me if I'm wrong post game hosts) that the hosts made this a completely open set up with godfather and miller: so that we focus on actually making good reads and cases, not waiting for a DT to get a positive check for mafia. I also think that your logic in giving rabbitz, TMG and Makin town reads is flawed. My case against Mackin already speaks for itself, but rabbitz's last minute vote switch occurred when Hopeless was already set to lynch. Even if he hadn't switched, Hopeless would still have been lynched because he hit 5 votes first. His vote changed nothing. You could even argue that it was an attempt at being on the correct lynch to grab townie cred if you wanted to. | ||
|
BassInSpace
Australia165 Posts
"Lynching him regardless of whether he is town or mafia hurts town, since that's one more person mafia will have to shoot and one more town vote" is confusing, should read "Lynching him regardless of whether he is town or mafia hurts town, since that's one less person mafia will have to shoot and one less town vote if he is town" | ||
| ||
