EPTIf you aren't and have a good case, wait till tomorrow.
Common sense really.
Newbie Mini Mafia XIII - Page 16
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Hyaach
Singapore1737 Posts
If you aren't and have a good case, wait till tomorrow. Common sense really. | ||
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ShiaoPi
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5955 Posts
@Crossfire99: You really got some good points on Mufaa, but besides his inactivity and the math behind his vote there are not that much questionable actions/information on him. Mufaa mind sharing you thoughts on your vote? From the people I have called out there were responses by dahdum: + Show Spoiler + I stand by my vote on BKE, I've been at work so couldn't really go in depth on Anaclectus - but I still get that newbie town vibe. Bringing up BioSC was just reiterating the top of my list, it's also enjoyable how defensive he gets when mentioned. I'll make a full case when I'm ready. I'm not sold on anyone being confirmed, and we haven't gotten to true analysis stage. The odd thing is that you have tunnelled him all game long, but still feel that you are not ready to make a case against him. Why focus so much on him then? Maybe just to divert attention from Anacletus, while you still play it safe with voting for him? There is simply an inconsistency between time you spent on BioSC and real committment onto his case. Darkfirex5 also posted the following: + Show Spoiler + I guess no one listened to me about the switch of the bandwagon with no solid evidence compared to the "safer" bet with Anacletus, I'll be going over the people who switch vote, i gtg for now but i believe i saw a mafia group bandwagoning to get it started. <-- ill be looking into that Which means he is totally ignoring my post about him. Just a general statement of regret and a somehow flawed logic of a "safer bet". I believe we have quite established that Anacletus can easily be lynched later if the need arises. Anyone else up for pressuring him as well? Hyaach just believes me to be suspicious, I can assure you Hyaach that feeling is mutual. We probably should discuss BKE's thought as well. His last suspects were dahdum, mufaa and unforgiven. I suspect dahdum as well and have Mufaa on my radar now. I had at first not suspected unforgiven, but his posts during night make me slightly suspicious of him. First of this one: + Show Spoiler + On May 12 2012 10:13 Unforgiven_ve wrote: I keep reading and reading and dont see anywhere how to get that information about "3 mafias" why are you so sure? Maybe it could be 4? 2 is too few and 5 too much, you wrote that whit so much security(sp?) and you started the wagon against BKW... tell me, why are you so sure about being 3 mafias? He grabs a tidbit of austinmcc about the mafiacount as an attempt maybe to discredit the case and the austin with it. I feel that this "evidence" is sorely lacking as it seems like quite the logical conclusion to say that there are 3 mafia. It could be the beginning of setting up austinmcc for lynch at day based on the mislynch of BKE. His other post is this one: On May 12 2012 12:50 Unforgiven_ve wrote: Guys, I just relized something, we should not discuss anything at night, that's just helps the mafia, they will get The player whit the better read. We should wait and don't make any deep analysis, what do you think? I responded to his thought process at the beginning of this post so let's see what his motivation for it might have been: 1) Genuinly concerned about the possibility of the good reading players being sniped at night. 2) Attempt to quelch night discussion to stop town from gathering information. If we assume 1), follow the logic of the beginning of my post. We need information and night discussion also helps blue roles to maybe balance out the night actions of scum. There is no reason to stop discusssing! 2) actually makes sense if we consider unforgiven scum. Going through his filter again I saw some inconsistencies. First of all he has a low postcount. His suspectlist seems to be: Anacletus, Mufaa, jailbreaker, Crossfire99 and me. He does no further action against any of these. Concerning his actions around the BKE lynch his votepost is actually not too shabby: + Show Spoiler + On May 12 2012 07:12 Unforgiven_ve wrote: I think anacletus did us not good playing the way he has, i want to belive its a mafia "strategy" but its just too risky(¿?), after reading austinmcc and seeing Anacletus doesnt represent a thread anymore (im sure this will strike us some other way in the future), if BKE flips blue/town as Shaopi says, we are at 0 again thanks to Anacletus. I repeat, i dont like to be guided this easily, but i see a case, i see reasons, and i see lack of response from the accused party. I have made up my mind after readin all posts and seeing RKE lacks of defense after the high pressure...also, this is golden Mufaa, it just raised my "interest" on you. + Show Spoiler + On May 12 2012 06:18 Mufaa wrote: Like I've been saying since my first post, I think Ana is bad town more than mafia. Every scummy thing he has done has been so scummy that if he was Mafia his partners would be berating him so bad he probably would have stopped posting instead of digging himself into this giant hole he's made. .... and i agree 100% on your jailbraker FOS as i stated hours before, pointing a friend maybe?... but i think we should wait a little more. ##Vote BroodKingEXE But between his last post, which was still in the Anacletus discussion and his first post about BKE are around 6 hours of time. It could naturally be due to timeconstraints so let's take a closer look on his votepost. There are a lot of general statements and sheeping of reasons. He goes on to stress his disdain for bandwagoning and throws in a suspicion of Mufaa without a good reason (at least to me. We all agree that Anacletus' play was terrible and Mufaa's statement is pretty common sense.). Of course these things are not enough for a case against unforgiven yet, but for now: ##FOS unforgiven_ve That does not mean that I am not following the others on my shortlist, but I believe we might have to look at him a lot more closely than before. | ||
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Nova_Terra
Switzerland1190 Posts
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Crossfire99
United States1529 Posts
On May 12 2012 12:50 Unforgiven_ve wrote: Guys, I just relized something, we should not discuss anything at night, that's just helps the mafia, they will get The player whit the better read. We should wait and don't make any deep analysis, what do you think? Just so this doesn't get lost in my paragraph. unforgiven, what is your response to shaopi's case on you. He brings up good points. | ||
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Unforgiven_ve
Venezuela1232 Posts
You can see im not the only one suspecting of Mufaa, im just not buying that kind of "clean play", no time to play, a couple of long depth analysis post, go back to lurk and come whit another "great" analysis. The thing about austin was, i didnt saw anywhere where you can get the scum quantity, seeing the description of the game you can see we can get from 2 to 4 (Roles), i just pointed that out, and asked him why, it seemed weird to me he just said there were 3 mafias so casually. 3rd. If you see my filter, you can find that i really think Anacletus was a REALLY BAD town player, of course i had my suspicions on him, but that wasnt enough, whit austin post, things seemed to make a little more sense, and as you said, when i came to post i see this new case and had to make a "pretty fast" choice, seeing as my evidence/suspicions on other players are still not enough. Now, is this post just to prove me and divert my first suspicions on you? Why you stoped talking and using your BIG list? Now that you have more information i would like to see a Refresh in you list please. | ||
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Darkfirex5
United States67 Posts
On May 11 2012 21:02 ShiaoPi wrote: Just read through everything you guys posted, there are a few things which really strike me as noticeable. Hyaach's play remains fishy in my opinion, posts are more useful now, but his instantvote with reasoning following later is still scummy. A connection between him and Anacletus deems unlikely with the vote, but hyaach's play is really confusing. Jailbreaker actually promised to deliver something: but still no post yet. Laziness/slow at best but scummy and suspicious at the worst. Darkfirex5 campaigns caution and nothing overhasty in regards to the developing votes. Withholds his vote for this reason: Which is contradictory on his own suspicions on Tofu, Bio and dahdum as they lack evidence as well (every case on day1 lacks solid 100% evidence anyway). Keeps up a slight defense of Anacletus, while voting for him (in the wrong format though). Weird behaviour as Anacletus' play has not improved and remains scummy. Keeping an eye on him. Sorry for not responding to this^ The reason i like to stay cautious is because when things start happening fast like at the end of day one, we may end up switching the bandwagon and lynching a townie, inthis case the cop. I also think suspicions on people are much different then placing a vote. By me saying im suspicious of people means okay, something doesnt seem right but i need more evidence for me to want to put a vote on them to be lynched. The reason i kept the slight defense on Anacletus was becuase it was still day 1 and its hard to decide on the lynching. I ended up voting on him anyway becuase he seemed more scummy than EXE and i didnt like risking the vote on EXE before more evidence was obtained from/for him to prove he was scummy. So i went with the person who seemed the scummiest at the time, Anacletus. | ||
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Mufaa
219 Posts
On May 12 2012 20:36 ShiaoPi wrote: I do not think we should stop discussion at night. There is no reason to, yes mafia might make adjustments to their plans but so can our blues and it is better to die with night contributions, which might be good information for the survivors, than just silently. @Crossfire99: You really got some good points on Mufaa, but besides his inactivity and the math behind his vote there are not that much questionable actions/information on him. Mufaa mind sharing you thoughts on your vote? From the people I have called out there were responses by dahdum: + Show Spoiler + I stand by my vote on BKE, I've been at work so couldn't really go in depth on Anaclectus - but I still get that newbie town vibe. Bringing up BioSC was just reiterating the top of my list, it's also enjoyable how defensive he gets when mentioned. I'll make a full case when I'm ready. I'm not sold on anyone being confirmed, and we haven't gotten to true analysis stage. The odd thing is that you have tunnelled him all game long, but still feel that you are not ready to make a case against him. Why focus so much on him then? Maybe just to divert attention from Anacletus, while you still play it safe with voting for him? There is simply an inconsistency between time you spent on BioSC and real committment onto his case. Darkfirex5 also posted the following: + Show Spoiler + I guess no one listened to me about the switch of the bandwagon with no solid evidence compared to the "safer" bet with Anacletus, I'll be going over the people who switch vote, i gtg for now but i believe i saw a mafia group bandwagoning to get it started. <-- ill be looking into that Which means he is totally ignoring my post about him. Just a general statement of regret and a somehow flawed logic of a "safer bet". I believe we have quite established that Anacletus can easily be lynched later if the need arises. Anyone else up for pressuring him as well? Hyaach just believes me to be suspicious, I can assure you Hyaach that feeling is mutual. We probably should discuss BKE's thought as well. His last suspects were dahdum, mufaa and unforgiven. I suspect dahdum as well and have Mufaa on my radar now. I had at first not suspected unforgiven, but his posts during night make me slightly suspicious of him. First of this one: + Show Spoiler + On May 12 2012 10:13 Unforgiven_ve wrote: I keep reading and reading and dont see anywhere how to get that information about "3 mafias" why are you so sure? Maybe it could be 4? 2 is too few and 5 too much, you wrote that whit so much security(sp?) and you started the wagon against BKW... tell me, why are you so sure about being 3 mafias? He grabs a tidbit of austinmcc about the mafiacount as an attempt maybe to discredit the case and the austin with it. I feel that this "evidence" is sorely lacking as it seems like quite the logical conclusion to say that there are 3 mafia. It could be the beginning of setting up austinmcc for lynch at day based on the mislynch of BKE. His other post is this one: I responded to his thought process at the beginning of this post so let's see what his motivation for it might have been: 1) Genuinly concerned about the possibility of the good reading players being sniped at night. 2) Attempt to quelch night discussion to stop town from gathering information. If we assume 1), follow the logic of the beginning of my post. We need information and night discussion also helps blue roles to maybe balance out the night actions of scum. There is no reason to stop discusssing! 2) actually makes sense if we consider unforgiven scum. Going through his filter again I saw some inconsistencies. First of all he has a low postcount. His suspectlist seems to be: Anacletus, Mufaa, jailbreaker, Crossfire99 and me. He does no further action against any of these. Concerning his actions around the BKE lynch his votepost is actually not too shabby: + Show Spoiler + On May 12 2012 07:12 Unforgiven_ve wrote: I think anacletus did us not good playing the way he has, i want to belive its a mafia "strategy" but its just too risky(¿?), after reading austinmcc and seeing Anacletus doesnt represent a thread anymore (im sure this will strike us some other way in the future), if BKE flips blue/town as Shaopi says, we are at 0 again thanks to Anacletus. I repeat, i dont like to be guided this easily, but i see a case, i see reasons, and i see lack of response from the accused party. I have made up my mind after readin all posts and seeing RKE lacks of defense after the high pressure...also, this is golden Mufaa, it just raised my "interest" on you. + Show Spoiler + On May 12 2012 06:18 Mufaa wrote: Like I've been saying since my first post, I think Ana is bad town more than mafia. Every scummy thing he has done has been so scummy that if he was Mafia his partners would be berating him so bad he probably would have stopped posting instead of digging himself into this giant hole he's made. .... and i agree 100% on your jailbraker FOS as i stated hours before, pointing a friend maybe?... but i think we should wait a little more. ##Vote BroodKingEXE But between his last post, which was still in the Anacletus discussion and his first post about BKE are around 6 hours of time. It could naturally be due to timeconstraints so let's take a closer look on his votepost. There are a lot of general statements and sheeping of reasons. He goes on to stress his disdain for bandwagoning and throws in a suspicion of Mufaa without a good reason (at least to me. We all agree that Anacletus' play was terrible and Mufaa's statement is pretty common sense.). Of course these things are not enough for a case against unforgiven yet, but for now: ##FOS unforgiven_ve That does not mean that I am not following the others on my shortlist, but I believe we might have to look at him a lot more closely than before. Ok. I'm posting from my phone so I cant separate the quotes into chunks to make it more readable but I'll respond as best as I can. First paragraph: This is too situational of a thing to address during the night before we've seen a mafia NK. I'd prefer to stay out of the details til d2 because I don't want to give the mafia too much insight on the pros and cons of night debating. If there is sufficient demand I will post about it. Until day when it's safer to post about it, I'd echo the point about if you've had a good d1 keep posting because you're probably a mafia target. If you aren't hold off until morning unless you have such a solid case from the night info that your death would confirm a person or at least some of the people you're suspicious of as scum. 2nd Paragraph: as far as my Brood vote I was trying to wait for a more solid case to get behind due to my inability to really create a solid case from my phone. I hope people would be suspicious of my lack of cases but like I said before d1 ran the 48h during a time when work really shit on me. Back to the question of the vote, I was trying to wait for a better case (I didn't think he was blue, but I wasn't expecting a scum flip either) so the vote on Jailbreaker was to try and get people to put some pressure on him before the day ended. Although it didn't get the desired effect of forcing him to post it did get people to remember him instead of just writing his inactivity off as lurking. Once I saw that people weren't going to pressure him into responding and he wasn't going to respond I switched to Brood in case there were last minute changes. I was still checking my phone in case I did need to switch but I still feel a Brood lynch gave us more info. Obviously this wasn't the best plan and if Jail ends up getting mod killed it was all for naught and I generated a bunch of heat on me for nothing. I have nothing to hide however so I don't mind the pressure on me since it is generating discussion. I think the fact that I didn't sheep a vote to avoid pressure earlier and have been transparent about my thoughts and decisions should speak volumes about my intent. I'll address the other posts against me when I get a chance and give my thoughts in general. | ||
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ShiaoPi
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5955 Posts
On May 13 2012 01:37 Unforgiven_ve wrote: Fair enough. First of all, my post about not posting any real deep analysis at night is genuine, i dont want a mafia to kill a good "investigator", as i said at beggining, english is not my native language, so trying to make BIG post sometimes its a bit difficult. You can see im not the only one suspecting of Mufaa, im just not buying that kind of "clean play", no time to play, a couple of long depth analysis post, go back to lurk and come whit another "great" analysis. The thing about austin was, i didnt saw anywhere where you can get the scum quantity, seeing the description of the game you can see we can get from 2 to 4 (Roles), i just pointed that out, and asked him why, it seemed weird to me he just said there were 3 mafias so casually. 3rd. If you see my filter, you can find that i really think Anacletus was a REALLY BAD town player, of course i had my suspicions on him, but that wasnt enough, whit austin post, things seemed to make a little more sense, and as you said, when i came to post i see this new case and had to make a "pretty fast" choice, seeing as my evidence/suspicions on other players are still not enough. Now, is this post just to prove me and divert my first suspicions on you? Why you stoped talking and using your BIG list? Now that you have more information i would like to see a Refresh in you list please. I can understand why you may want to caution against nightposting but as I stated already I believe nightdiscussion to be usefull to us either way since not only scum does action but also blues and if you get hit at night and you still had good thoughts they are lost to town. So better post them now. Regarding Mufaa, I have him on my radar as well, but my interest on your suspicion of him is, why did you bring him up? Especially since the quote you base that suspicion on seems pretty standard and is pretty much austinmcc's reasoning from before in different wording. Furthermore your votepost begins debating about the decision to vote either Anacletus or BKE, but suddenly you just feel like throwing another candidate out based on a single tidbit? That is the thing which makes me dubious of you. On to the numbers of scum, I also assumed 3 scum since the beginning of the game and mentioned it on my list, so it is weird that you suddenly call austin out on this issue if you left me out. (although you do suspect me anyway) As I said in my first "longer" nightpost I was not suspicious of you for your voting process, I did not even mention it in my suspicion-post against you, so why do you bring it up again? This seems really confusing to me. I probably would have responded to your suspicions if you actually made a solid case based on them. As it stands now you believe me scummy for posting a long analysis, which was intended to start discussion, which it did. I posted that entire list to give everyone my opinions until then and content to discuss. I stopped posting for a simple reason, I went to bed. I know it says "Taiwan" next to me but I am living in Germany and therefore my timezone is CEST, feel free to compare the timestamps of my last post on that day with the next one. If it is still suspicious to you I cannot help you. On the question why I stopped using the list. First reason is that it fulfilled its purpose more discussion material on day 1. Next reason is that I had made myself clear that I was intending to pressure Anacletus first, which I did, until austinmcc made his case, convincing me to apply pressure on BKE. So there was no reason to use it again. I have a list in my head and do my posts with it in mind. You want to see a refreshed and updated list? Fine, give me some time to look through each and every filter again and I can deliver it to you. I fail to see how it makes me look suspicious but whatever. | ||
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ShiaoPi
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5955 Posts
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
Here's what I can add - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AnX9O6cujxVmdFlvZkdqR1g0Qlh3d2dSaENrdW9DblE#gid=0 It's just a rough sketch, but that's the vote movement hour by hour. Yellow cells are changes in votes, and (#) shows the overall order of the changes, with exact times noted below. There seem to be three phases to the votes. An initial round from 3:00 - 4:30ish, where we first started digging into Brood's answers and discussing things. All the initial movement happened there - Shiao unvotes, Dahdum, Anac, and Bio unvote and vote Brood, and Crossfire votes Anac. As of that point, the vote was 5 for Anac, 4 for Brood, 4 not voting. Lynch was still on Anac. Then the lynch actually changes. Firm's vote became the deciding vote, tipping things to 5 for Brood, 4 for Anac, 1 for Jailbreaker, 3 not voting. After that, the remaining 3 Brood votes come from Shiao (who had unvoted earlier but not voted Brood yet), Mufaa (who had voted Jailbreaker), and Unforgiven (who had not voted). After looking at it a few times, nothing really stands out to me. Firm's vote may have changed the lynch target, but we were rolling in that direction and Shiao had already stated his vote was going to change depending on Brood's defense. Shiao's vote can either be read as perfectly normal (no longer convinced on Anac, waiting to decide) or as kind of scummy (unvoting early, watching to see where to vote later). I don't really read it as scummy. Mufaa's vote is odd, only because after a few hours of action on one subject, he pops up and just throws a vote in another direction. I don't quite know what to make of it. Things to consider - (1) the entire thread has been focused on one subject for a few hours, he pops in and throws a vote on Jailbreaker; (2) he changes his vote shortly thereafter; (3) his vote came at a critical time (a vote for Brood would have made it 5/5, with Anac still being lynched. Little unsure on how I read this as of right now. So, make of it what you will. Perhaps it strengthens some cases or weakens others. And maybe it's useful in the future. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
I'm still suspicious of Anac. More and more people seem to be swinging towards bad townie play. I'd like to see more contributions from you Anac, because at this point I'm still unconvinced. I may have helped save you from a lynch AND given you a story to hide behind. I'm currently not really suspicious of anyone for "wagoning." When I initially posted on Anac and Brood, I legitimately felt that Anac was quite possibly townie, and Brood looked scummy. I stand by those reads. To the extent that you guys think those reads were sensible, then agreeing with them is NOT scummy play (in my mind). To me, I'm actually more suspicious of those whose votes didn't go Anac --> Brood. Darkfire. Others have already mentioned this. As votes are coming in on Anac, says it's a "weak bandwagon," with weak reasoning behind it. An hour and a half later, drops his vote on Anac. Now finds Anac scummiest. Then he defends Brood, saying he wants "more posts" from one of the more active players at that point and time (based purely on filter length). At night, we get this: + Show Spoiler + On May 12 2012 11:32 Darkfirex5 wrote: I guess no one listened to me about the switch of the bandwagon with no solid evidence compared to the "safer" bet with Anacletus, I'll be going over the people who switch vote, i gtg for now but i believe i saw a mafia group bandwagoning to get it started. <-- ill be looking into that I have no idea what to make of that. He didn't think anac was scum until anac's self-vote, then decided anac was the safest/safer lynch? Complains about no solid evidence on Brood, but again, I think the evidence DID look bad for Brood. And if it didn't, what good evidence was there on Anac? Also, just very, very focused on bandwagoning in general, mentioning it a LOT. It's not necessarily a bad thing, and I still believe that at the end of D1, Brood looked the scummiest. Don't have enough on Unforgiven to think one way or the other. Mufaa's jailbreaker vote, as everyone has mentioned, is odd just because it stands out so much. Why vote Jailbreaker at the 11th hour? Almost no chance of getting a lynch without some serious analysis there. At the same time, as scum, why bring up a third vote candidate when you see that votes are starting to swap to a candidate you know is town? Just WIFOM, can't get anything out of that one right now. Hyaach posted this very early on yesterday + Show Spoiler + On May 12 2012 01:13 Hyaach wrote: There is basically 8 hours left in this day. We are hard pressed against time. On the BKE suspicions. I actually felt that it is a valid direction. If you filter his post, he does post often but its all fluff. There is never anything constructive to the town from him. You could argue that he pressuring everyone and asking of explanation is town play but it could also be mafia trying to fish out blue roles What say you BKE. On Anacletus While i hope it is your bad play. You could be the godfather and choose to appear innocent to all investigation. Anacletus, in your opinion who do you think is scum right now? On May 12 2012 12:20 Hyaach wrote: bad play town bad play. I was asleep from my last post to now. Going to read what happened inbetween. | ||
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Unforgiven_ve
Venezuela1232 Posts
On May 11 2012 08:02 Unforgiven_ve wrote: 12:00 hours to go. Seeing as voting is obligatory and i dont know if i can login to post again, im gonna vote for myself just in case. But i will try to check before time ends. But first my 2 cents, when i see someone posting a LONG "analysis" on day 1 basing his opinions in a couple post, the first thing that comes to my mind is "he's trying too hard", maybe too appear as town leader and stuff, im not necessarily pointing fingers, ShiaoPi post is kinda helpful so far. But im gonna keep an eye on you and a couple more "in-depth analysts" I loled at Anacletus "I'm not mafia TT", lol, thats so fishy, reverse psychology maybe? You still are my top 1 tho, but i dont like the random bandwagon, i feel we are being guided to you. Mufaa finally posted, im gonna try to check for his opinion, i think thats all of us? Seeing as i have no more information about any of you besides the couple posts...Day 2 is gonna be another historie tho ##Vote Unforgiven_ve i repeat, i will try to change my vote before the time ends, and seeing abstaining is not allowed. Shaopi, read this part of my post, thats what i meant, its difficult to me to belive in a list whit such litter information. austin, i clicked you link but it says i need permission to see it. | ||
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Unforgiven_ve
Venezuela1232 Posts
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Unforgiven_ve
Venezuela1232 Posts
suspicious of mufaa, jailbreaker, crossfire because at the time they hadn't really posted suspicious of anacletus because of his play suspicious of shaopi because at the time he posted a big list of names with his opinions but nothing really happened yet so there wasn't much to base that on | ||
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Day 2! ShiaoPi, Vanilla Townie has been killed!! In other news, Jailbreaker(Town Aligned) has been modkilled! Jailbreaker was a power role, and given the lameness of having a power role be modkilled in a mini-game, I will redistribute his role to a random townie. If you have any concerns with this, please PM me! Voting ends in apprx 47 hours, on Monday night at 23:00 GMT (+00:00). | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
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ShiaoPi
TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5955 Posts
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Anacletus
United States733 Posts
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