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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5955 Posts
Okay, let's see what we can salvage from the mess we have done. First of all I guess part of the blame for this colossal mislynch lies with BroodKingEXE's play, Even a last ditch roleclaim would have been better than the defense he put up, but sadly we cannot reverse what we have done, so let's take a look at the votes which led to his lynch:
+ Show Spoiler +
Vote Count:
BroodkingEXE(8): austinmcc, Anacletus, dahdum, BioSC, FirmTofu, ShiaoPi, unforgiven_ve, Mufaa
The people who switched were: Anacletus, dahdum, BioSC, FirmTofu, ShiaoPi, unforgiven_ve and Mufaa.
Basically everyone except austinmcc who started the case. I personally do not blame him for starting the wagon since I agreed on a lot of his views and I also said that the play of BKE was either blue or scum.
Looking at Anacletus next:
-his last posts seemed quite townie to me and his vote is reasoned from his side as "better they lynch you than they lynch me", which is okay to me. Yes Anacletus played horribly halfway through the day, but it actually got better, so for now I would put him as "bad" townie.
dahdum's vote is here:
+ Show Spoiler +
Will support a lynch of BioSC or BKE, do we have a current vote count?
##unvote
##Vote BroodKingEXE
Might not be enough to swing it, but I feel more comfortable lynchying BKE than Anac at this point.
Looking through his filter, it consists mostly of attacks on BioSC, pretty much the only thing about BKE is the following from his list:
+ Show Spoiler +BKE - Not providing reads, only a semi-baseless vote which helped get the game going. Talks about scum will do and urges caution. Scummy.
I am unsure what to make of it right now. He seemed to have suspected BKE for a while which could explain his vote on him after austin made his case. Especially since nobody seemed to be inclined to follow up his pressure on BioSC. The only slightly suspicious thing I can make out is in his post just before his vote he says the following:
I'm backing off of anac at this point, he's still suspicious but I'm thinking reckless/bad town vs bad mafia. Too many people are after him first day, some have to be mafia, and his defense should have been better if he's getting help in a QT (as austinmcc mentioned).
First he says that he backs off from anacletus, although he only jumped on that bandwagon without much explanation and did not follow it up with pressure besides his vote. It would have made more sense to say "I am backing off from BioSC for now" as he was focused on him. But it can also be argued that it was just a wording issue as his vote was indeed still on anacletus. His reasoning on switching onto BKE is basically sheeping austinmcc's arguments without adding anything else to it. He also does not post again before the lynch. If we take his comment on BKE from his list into consideration it seems a lot less scummy than it might otherwise, so for now just slightly fishy play due to lack of discussion and trying really hard to start a case on BioSC without actually starting one.
Up next we have BioSC:
His defense against the (half-)case of dahdum seems reasonable to me, posts well-thought out posts and gives his opinions on the main topics of discussion. He is among the first to react to austinmcc's case but is reluctant to change his vote at first. As soon as he does he seems to have gone offline or into lurkermode. I would consider his vote in the same category as my own, we were simply confident in a read on scum and acted accordingly.
FirmTofu:
FirmTofu has quite the lack of activity but when he did defend himself and start a little case against darkfirex5 his posting seemed well-structured and reasonable. His vote however does not tell us much:
+ Show Spoiler +I think Broodking's responses to the pressure are much more telling than the actual initial pressure itself. austinmcc is completely right that Broodking is the scummiest person alive now.
##vote BroodKingEXE
It seems like a "let's just join the bandwagon"-vote. But we need more posts to read more into him. As it stands now I would remain suspicious of him, especially as his posts before switching his vote had 0 content regarding BKE.
My own decision to switch should be pretty transparent if you reread my filter, so I will not repeat myself here.
unforgiven_ve has been terribly inactive for most of day 1 even voting for himself just to make sure that he voted in case he cannot check the thread out before the deadline. He rejoined the discussion as he could spare the time to do so and goes on to clearly state his reasons for switching to BKE after his initial vote on Anacletus (which pretty much all of us did anyway). Does not look like a bandwagonjumper to me.
Mufaa has also been really inactive for most of the time. When he did post however, there was clearly effort and thought behind it. Sadly his amount of posts is still really low. He was there at the end of the Anacletus discussion and just in time for the deadline. He pushed a little against Jailbreaker just before switching but his reasoning seems solid and transparent. Also does not look like a bandwagoner.
Conclusively on the voters of BKE the only outstanding ones are dahdum and FirmTofu. I would really like to hear more from you. Especially about your voting decision or generally more activity.
Besides those participating in the mislynch we have other suspects as well. Jailbreaker has been called out more than often enough so I guess I do not have to add anything against him.
I want to focus a bit on darkfirex5:
If you read through his filter, you immediately see that there is simply a lot of weak halfcases he starts against several people, these include: Anacletus (where his vote ends up), BioSC, FirmTofu and dahdum. His posts are few and mostly within the context of the Anacletus discussion, in which he seemingly takes a diverting role with his suspicions. In regards to BKE he writes the following:
+ Show Spoiler +
I'd suggest filtering BKEXE's posts. From what I'm reading of what he has posted, there isnt anying that makes me want to switch the bandwagon onto him (fairly) last minute. There isnt enough posts from him to make the acusation he is more mafia than that of Anacletus. I dislike this massive wagon switch because instead of going with the safest mafia guess, we switch it last minute to someone i think we need more posts from to prove he is mafia.
I bolded the part which seemed weird to me. I could agree with his reasoning on not wanting to switch before, but BKE was actually one of the more active players so it seems like a sentence without anything backing it up. Generally speaking he is acting scummy as in non-comittal to his reads/suspicions and inactivity. Keep your eyes on him.
Hyaach's play has steadily improved during the game as in contributing to the discussion and such. He also questions BKE, seemed to be inclined to maybe switch his vote, but he just stopped posting as soon as BKE responded. Kind of weird if you ask me, add to it the confusion he has done in the first haf of day 1 and remains a hard to read player, so fishy play right here.
So who am I keeping on my watchlist for now?
jailbreaker, Dahdum, hyaach, FirmTofu, darkfirex5 are currently my top suspicions.
jailbreaker for his ridiculous inactivity, dahdum and Firm for bandwagoning, darkfirex5 for confusing, non-comittal, inactive play and hyaach for confusing play which might be another "bad" townie who slipped at the beginning.
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TAIWAN NUMBAH WAN5955 Posts
Jailbreaker obviously leaves the circle of suspects if he gets modkilled, but I think that is pretty self-explanatory.
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On May 12 2012 05:35 austinmcc wrote:
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As I count it, but don't take it as gospel. If you are thinking of swapping, and Hyaach was suspicious this morning and waiting to see Brood's response, that could potentially take us to 5/4, with 4 undecideds. We NEED active town to do anything though, otherwise we're already locked in. Mafia's got 3 votes to throw around, we might have a no-vote or two, so we just need clear decisions and stances.
I keep reading and reading and dont see anywhere how to get that information about "3 mafias" why are you so sure? Maybe it could be 4? 2 is too few and 5 too much, you wrote that whit so much security(sp?) and you started the wagon against BKW... tell me, why are you so sure about being 3 mafias?
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What the...how'd this go from a sure fire Anacletus lynch to a BroodKingEXE lynch? and he's cop!? When I popped in for that short amount of time, I thought for sure anacletus was going to die. I'm going to have to read the thread now that I have time and post my thoughts when I'm done.
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On May 12 2012 10:13 Unforgiven_ve wrote:Show nested quote +On May 12 2012 05:35 austinmcc wrote:
...
As I count it, but don't take it as gospel. If you are thinking of swapping, and Hyaach was suspicious this morning and waiting to see Brood's response, that could potentially take us to 5/4, with 4 undecideds. We NEED active town to do anything though, otherwise we're already locked in. Mafia's got 3 votes to throw around, we might have a no-vote or two, so we just need clear decisions and stances. I keep reading and reading and dont see anywhere how to get that information about "3 mafias" why are you so sure? Maybe it could be 4? 2 is too few and 5 too much, you wrote that whit so much security(sp?) and you started the wagon against BKW... tell me, why are you so sure about being 3 mafias?
It is 3 mafia (actually it can be as little as 2 mafia) because the of the description of the setup is found here.
http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=C9++
Basically, it looks like a 5/8 chance for 3 mafia and 3/8 chance for 2 mafia.
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On May 12 2012 10:22 Crossfire99 wrote:Show nested quote +On May 12 2012 10:13 Unforgiven_ve wrote:On May 12 2012 05:35 austinmcc wrote:
...
As I count it, but don't take it as gospel. If you are thinking of swapping, and Hyaach was suspicious this morning and waiting to see Brood's response, that could potentially take us to 5/4, with 4 undecideds. We NEED active town to do anything though, otherwise we're already locked in. Mafia's got 3 votes to throw around, we might have a no-vote or two, so we just need clear decisions and stances. I keep reading and reading and dont see anywhere how to get that information about "3 mafias" why are you so sure? Maybe it could be 4? 2 is too few and 5 too much, you wrote that whit so much security(sp?) and you started the wagon against BKW... tell me, why are you so sure about being 3 mafias? It is 3 mafia (actually it can be as little as 2 mafia) because the of the description of the setup is found here. http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=C9++Basically, it looks like a 5/8 chance for 3 mafia and 3/8 chance for 2 mafia.
well, still i see he has no doubt about being 3 mafias, maybe he slipped some information there?
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On May 12 2012 10:26 Unforgiven_ve wrote:Show nested quote +On May 12 2012 10:22 Crossfire99 wrote:On May 12 2012 10:13 Unforgiven_ve wrote:On May 12 2012 05:35 austinmcc wrote:
...
As I count it, but don't take it as gospel. If you are thinking of swapping, and Hyaach was suspicious this morning and waiting to see Brood's response, that could potentially take us to 5/4, with 4 undecideds. We NEED active town to do anything though, otherwise we're already locked in. Mafia's got 3 votes to throw around, we might have a no-vote or two, so we just need clear decisions and stances. I keep reading and reading and dont see anywhere how to get that information about "3 mafias" why are you so sure? Maybe it could be 4? 2 is too few and 5 too much, you wrote that whit so much security(sp?) and you started the wagon against BKW... tell me, why are you so sure about being 3 mafias? It is 3 mafia (actually it can be as little as 2 mafia) because the of the description of the setup is found here. http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=C9++Basically, it looks like a 5/8 chance for 3 mafia and 3/8 chance for 2 mafia. well, still i see he has no doubt about being 3 mafias, maybe he slipped some information there?
Maybe? I don't really think so, though. Honestly, I assume there are 3 also. I first assumed it was 3 because the only other game of mafia I played was this size and there were 3 mafia. Then when I checked that mafia scum page that I linked, I saw that mafia could be either 2 or 3, so I continued to assume 3 as a worst case scenario.
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Go check the past newbie games. 9 man games are 2 or 3 mafia. The 12/13 man games are 3. I only looked back through 5 or so, but nothing broke that pattern. It COULD be 1 off, but the way the setup is derived there are only certain options.
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So - before anyone brings this up I want to address something.
It may appear that I look guilty because I kept insisting that I didn't think BKE was mafia despite voting for him - this wasn't to keep the bandwagon going as I would have voted for anyone to keep me alive. It really should raise suspicion that I would say "no he's innocent" when mafia would know he is innocent yet still vote to keep a clean record. I just thought I'd bring this up before anyone else does.
My personal opinion is that mafia WAS part of the vote for BKE and that we should look carefully at those who did vote. That's my opinion as of right now.
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On May 12 2012 10:00 ShiaoPi wrote:I am unsure what to make of it right now. He seemed to have suspected BKE for a while which could explain his vote on him after austin made his case. Especially since nobody seemed to be inclined to follow up his pressure on BioSC. The only slightly suspicious thing I can make out is in his post just before his vote he says the following: Show nested quote +I'm backing off of anac at this point, he's still suspicious but I'm thinking reckless/bad town vs bad mafia. Too many people are after him first day, some have to be mafia, and his defense should have been better if he's getting help in a QT (as austinmcc mentioned). First he says that he backs off from anacletus, although he only jumped on that bandwagon without much explanation and did not follow it up with pressure besides his vote. It would have made more sense to say "I am backing off from BioSC for now" as he was focused on him. But it can also be argued that it was just a wording issue as his vote was indeed still on anacletus. His reasoning on switching onto BKE is basically sheeping austinmcc's arguments without adding anything else to it. He also does not post again before the lynch. If we take his comment on BKE from his list into consideration it seems a lot less scummy than it might otherwise, so for now just slightly fishy play due to lack of discussion and trying really hard to start a case on BioSC without actually starting one.
I stand by my vote on BKE, I've been at work so couldn't really go in depth on Anaclectus - but I still get that newbie town vibe.
Bringing up BioSC was just reiterating the top of my list, it's also enjoyable how defensive he gets when mentioned. I'll make a full case when I'm ready. I'm not sold on anyone being confirmed, and we haven't gotten to true analysis stage.
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I guess no one listened to me about the switch of the bandwagon with no solid evidence compared to the "safer" bet with Anacletus, I'll be going over the people who switch vote, i gtg for now but i believe i saw a mafia group bandwagoning to get it started. <-- ill be looking into that
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bad play town bad play. I was asleep from my last post to now.
Going to read what happened inbetween.
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Well, hindsight is 20/20 I suppose. I will have to echo Shiao's sentiments in that BKExE's posts really didn't help his case. Going to re-read during this night phase and try to find better ammo to use.
+ Show Spoiler +On May 12 2012 11:11 dahdum wrote:
Bringing up BioSC was just reiterating the top of my list, it's also enjoyable how defensive he gets when mentioned. I'll make a full case when I'm ready. I'm not sold on anyone being confirmed, and we haven't gotten to true analysis stage.
*yawn* Another passive aggressive post from Dah against me. Enjoying how defensive I get? It's just as enjoyable to watch you flail about with no real evidence.
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EBWOP: + Show Spoiler +On May 12 2012 07:55 BroodKingEXE wrote:
Ahhhh!! I've gotta cram in what I can.
Mufaa, Anacletus, and dahdum
Let's see. It looks like Mufaa is wagoning. He votes for me to get on the wagon, and be on the right side of things. He voted for Jail to keep suspicion off himself when the vote was close. I'm sure of it.
Same thing with dahdum read his filter. At one point he supported me, then he turned away.
I dug myself into a bad hole I think Shiao and austin are townies for sure they are making good amount of sense in their posts.
Listen to them,but post your own info as to why you vote. Advice: keep your eyes open, don't tunnel like you did with me. If you do really suspect them look at what they are saying. Posting style is only an add-on to being scum, what they say is more important.
This seems like an interesting and good place to start. I actually have to sleep now, I have work in the morning, but will be free all afternoon tomorrow, assuming I can finish my project. Good Night all.
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I will just say this out now.
High on my suspect list :
dahdum Anacletus Mufaa
ShiaoPi
and checks on Anacletus will be pointless as i've said his been claiming his town so far and could very well be mafia godfather. they appears innocent to checks. Self voted to appear as a last ditch effort to claim townie because the case on him was quite big. Kept insisting he wasn't sure voting BKE was a good choice. Then switch vote to BKE the moment people started pushing and BKE's case seemed lost.
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Guys, I just relized something, we should not discuss anything at night, that's just helps the mafia, they will get
The player whit the better read. We should wait and don't make any deep analysis, what do you think?
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That's why i decided to post out my suspect list now in case something happens. Its in order of ranking btw.
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On May 12 2012 11:32 Darkfirex5 wrote:
I guess no one listened to me about the switch of the bandwagon with no solid evidence compared to the "safer" bet with Anacletus, I'll be going over the people who switch vote, i gtg for now but i believe i saw a mafia group bandwagoning to get it started. <-- ill be looking into that
What was "safer" about lynching someone whose play is so bad he's a pariah to everyone? All that would tell me is that the town is capable of identifying basic scum signs. Although it really sucks we just killed a blue, he could have claimed to prevent that. While by linking Brood we gained much more info to base our future lynches off of.
Multiple people (myself included) felt Ana's play had to be town because no mafia would act scummy so brazenly. The only way we gain more from an Ana lynch is if he is metagaming us so hard but based off of reading past newbie games every scenario I've seen like this has resulted in a mislynch. Even if he is odds are he'll be lynched soon unless he improves drastically.
One other thing I'd like to point out to everyone is don't be afraid to pressure people all day through your vote. This isn't majority lynch so you don't have to worry about voting then coming back to a lynch an hour later. It's a nice way to get content from everyone as well.
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Ok I'm going to summarize what I feel happened at the end of the day just to put everything into context. Anacletus has been playing scummy all game, then when everyone starts voting for him he starts flailing around and his posting can be seen to improve a little (I am still suspicious of him and expect him to step up his game to prove he isn't mafia in order to survive a day 2 lynch.) During this time austin puts together a case on Brood which many find convincing (It also caused me to put Brood on my radar). He adds to it and more join and switch votes. Brood defends himself terribly and dies for it. He turns out to be a 1 shot cop.
Now going through the filters nothing really stuck out to me until I ran across these two posts by Mufaa.
+ Show Spoiler +On May 12 2012 06:18 Mufaa wrote:
Like I've been saying since my first post, I think Ana is bad town more than mafia. Every scummy thing he has done has been so scummy that if he was Mafia his partners would be berating him so bad he probably would have stopped posting instead of digging himself into this giant hole he's made.
Austin's point about how even if Ana is scum he's lost so much credibility he can't make a push on someone d2. If he doesn't improve his play we might have to take him out later, but right now if we lynch him we won't gain any real info. Everyone has been on to him at some point, so if he flips town we gain almost nothing from this since his posts lack any content. If he flips scum the scum would lose a player, but that honestly might help them if he really is scum and is playing like this.
If we lynch someone else and they flip town, we can see who has been focused on them, who stayed out of the discussion on that person and we at least have some good info to discuss over d2. The odds are just as good of anyone else flipping scum, so I would rather flip someone who would give us info instead of giving scum the option to hide behind the excuse that Ana was such a bad townie, how could everyone not vote for him.
I think BroodKingEXE needs to post some content instead of one liners and just agreeing with people as it comes off scummy, but he isn't my first choice at the moment.
Jailbreaker- Why haven't you posted in the last 3 and a half pages? You commented early on about how much aggression there was but you haven't made a single case, even hinted at having a read, or contributed to the town in any way. Why are you so content to just sit back and watch everyone else debate with the deadline so close?
##Vote Jailbreaker
This isn't a permanent vote. I think Jailbreaker is the best lynch so far. If no one else feels this way, I will swing my vote to BroodKingEXE to get some info from the lynch as I do think his actual content will give us something to compare to everyone else d2 once we see his flip. On May 12 2012 07:19 Mufaa wrote:Show nested quote +On May 12 2012 06:52 ShiaoPi wrote:
Looking at Anacletus' later posts we could take a guess and say he is a townie who played bad. Especially for Mafia he is worthless right now due to his 0 town cred.
Regarding BroodkingEXE, I guess I already said that he is either scum or blue.
The case pushed by Mufaa is Jailbreaker, who is for sure another player high on the scum list, but there is also too little to make of him and I do not believe it warrants a lynch.
Other suspects have posted little so really making a solid case against them is hard, especially within ~1 hour.
So in the end I guess we are still left with the question to lynch either Anacletus or BroodkingExe.
I should probably stop rambling now and wait for your thoughts on it. Let me clarify my vote. I wasn't making a concerted push on Jailbreaker. I was hoping others would follow suit to put some pressure on him and force some content before the deadline. 45 til the deadline and only 3 real posts w/ no vote means he's probably gonna get modkilled or warned so it won't matter either way. Still I don't like the idea of letting someone lurk the entire day. Since Jailbreaker seems out that really only leaves a choice between bkexe and Ana. I don't think ana's flip will tell us anything other than his alignment so I'm going to vote bkexe just to not waste d1. ##Vote BroodKingEXE
All he talks about is lynching for information. He doesn't think anac is scum. It also seems that he doesn't think that Brood is scum either. He says explicitly that an anac lynch won't give information but that a Brood lynch will. Now this is the part where it gets weird. At this point in time the vote count was 7-4 in favor of brood with him and Jail yet to vote. Worse case scenario for mufaa would be that jail voted for anac therefore making the voting 7-5. This means that mufaa was the only one left who hadn't voted. to make matters worse 5 people had just switched from anac to brood. They weren't going to switch back. Austin led the case and he wasn't moving. unforgiven switched from himself to brood after reading the cases against brood and his terrible defense. This basically meant that 7 votes on brood were guaranteed and he was going to die (a last minute cop claim might have changed this but I'm not sure because brood probably screwed himself over too much for it to be taken seriously). This meant mufaa ended up putting a meaningless vote on someone he thought was town. Why not push for someone else, someone who you thought was mafia?
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On May 12 2012 12:50 Unforgiven_ve wrote:
Guys, I just relized something, we should not discuss anything at night, that's just helps the mafia, they will get
The player whit the better read. We should wait and don't make any deep analysis, what do you think?
I also want other people's opinions on this. I am kinda on the other side of the issue as you, unforgiven. In my last game a lot of people said no one should post during the night except for like the last 5 min, so mafia couldn't do any night actions based on it. This meant the night was dead and no one discussed anything. I feel that if everyone freely discusses everyone can start to get on the same page and focus on a few people. But I'm not sure if the discussion is worth it if mafia can base night actions off of it. ugh. I just don't know what's best. what are everyone else's thoughts?
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EPT
