EPTTL Mafia 'Area' LIII - Page 88
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Mattchew
United States5684 Posts
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Mattchew
United States5684 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
On April 28 2012 06:41 Mattchew wrote: ok taking a long look into janaan. I did have a look quite recently, and as in my post a little earlier I found he posted quite sensible although not too much. I don't know if that's because he's good at blending in. What I don't like is that his most recent posts basically contributed jack shit to the discussion. At the moment I'm going through the monumental task that is Risen. | ||
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Janaan
United States381 Posts
On April 28 2012 04:55 Mattchew wrote: Scum is in these 6 players and if at anypoint I die please lynch these Ottox As I said, I still find him pretty scummy. I'm for a lynch on him Risen I'm still not sure about Risen. On the one hand, it really looked like he was trying to save VE on day 1, but then he pulls that stunt to lynch Zepperdd. I'd agree that if Ottox is scum, it makes Risen look REALLY bad, but I don't think we can take that chance today. I also still want to see everything he promised to post when he thought we'd autolynch him. Scummy, but not a good candidate for today's lynch in my opinion. Brood He's been one of our lowest posters which does raise red flags (Pot calling the kettle black, I know) and he seems to have connection with Ottox like Risen. I still don't know if he's a good option for lynch today, though. BM A pretty null read here. He hasn't done much at all, so there's not really much to go off of. I'd say it's possible for him to be scum, but it's just as likely that he's town. Last resort lynch for me MG In the games I've played with MG, I've never been able to clearly read him. I don't know what it is. He seems scummy in this game, though. St.Daniel We've got almost nothing to go on here. What he has posted doesn't look good, and we do for sure that he was lurking, not just AFK. He said he'd try to "get back in the game" but hasn't really done much since. Leaning scummy for me, but not much of a better lynch than BM right now As for your plan, I don't think it's a bad one. I still think the votes shouldn't start piling up until later so that there's a reason for people to talk, but that's just my opinion. The problem with making connections like you've done is that until a scum is flipped, it's all speculation. It's still possible for scum to be outside your list, I just don't know where. For the time being, those 6 are a good place to start, and I do agree that Ottoxlol is who we should start with. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
On April 28 2012 06:45 Janaan wrote: My thoughts on your list As for your plan, I don't think it's a bad one. I still think the votes shouldn't start piling up until later so that there's a reason for people to talk, but that's just my opinion. The problem with making connections like you've done is that until a scum is flipped, it's all speculation. It's still possible for scum to be outside your list, I just don't know where. For the time being, those 6 are a good place to start, and I do agree that Ottoxlol is who we should start with. Ok, if we put Ottoxlol to the side, who exactly is your best scumread and why? I would like your best read AND accompanying case if possible. | ||
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Janaan
United States381 Posts
Looking at the hour right before the last lynch, we see that Risen doesn't trust his own reads. On April 26 2012 08:26 Risen wrote: Maybe b/c there were a million lurkers D1 so to be even more hated in my mind you'd have to do something stupid like a last minute vote? He was leaning red start D2, he became greener to me with his posting, he started to appear more scummy but in my mind that's desperation about being a candidate for lynching. I think zephir is stupid, but I think he's stupid town. I'm not switching my vote to him. Then, as we all know, he goes and switches his vote, even though he said 30 minutes earlier that he wouldn't just because BM was voting for the same target? He never mentions that he thinks BM is 100% scum, just that he feels "uneasy about him". So all of a sudden now that it's come to voting, BM must be voting for a townie and Risen thinks this so strongly that he voteswitches? It just doesn't seem right to me, disregarding the fact that he switched back. Note: this has nothing to do with if Ottoxlol is scum and everything to do with Risen doing something he specifically said he would not do. I also still do agree with Gonzaw's original case on Risen. The only thing that makes me hesitate is how strongly Risen seemed to defend VE back on Day 1. It's WIFOM to argue it though, because it's possible for both town and scum perspectives. | ||
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ghost_403
United States1825 Posts
On April 26 2012 08:57 Risen wrote: ##unvote: Ottoxlol ##Vote: Zephirdd On April 26 2012 08:59 Risen wrote: ##unvote: Zephirdd ##Vote: Ottoxlol These votes were what ended the day with a mislynch. Without Risen's actions, we would have ended the day with the lynch of Ottoxlol. Is Ottoxlol scum? We don't know for sure yet. The only way to confirm anyone in this game is to make them flip. The hosts will tell us the truth. What we do know is this: Zephridd was not scum, and Risen's actions proved this to be true. Why did Risen ultimately do this? Well, there are four possible scenarios which we need to cover before we can answer this question. In this game, there are four possible alignment combinations for Risen and Ottoxlol.
(1) makes the most sense to me. A scum forced a mislynch in order to save his scum buddy. The only way that this would make sense is if Ottoxlol is a goon and Risen is not. The scum would in this case be trading Risen for a KP for another night. It's a good trade on their part. If they are good about it, maybe they can even convince the town that Risen just did something stupid. There are four of them left in a town of 13. Just might work out. (2) is just plain stupid. Risen would be jepordizing himself in order to gain, what, an extra mislynch? Day 2 mislynches Zephridd, Day 3 lynches Risen, Day 4 mislynches Ottoxlol? That's a bad plan that goes against their wincon. No, this isn't the case. (3) and (4) both can be covered by the same logic. Town Risen might risk his neck swapping from one candidate to another, but why back? Does Risen not know the vote count, that a switch to Zephridd would seal his fate? Risen has a last minute change of heart, and regrets his decision? Unlikely. A townie in this situation would cast his vote, then return to the town saying "You're as much to blame for this as me." It did take a town to lynch Zephridd. So why not own it? Why the switch back? The only answer that you can arrive at to understand that is "Risen is bad." So there you have it, folks. There are two possible explanations for what happened last night. Either Risen is scum, or Risen is bad. I believe Risen has played enough games for me to know that he's not terrible at this game. He knows what's going on, and I believe that last night he played to his wincon perfectly. It's just not the same as ours. I believe that (1) is what happened last night, and that's why I voted to lynch Ottoxlol today. But ghost! How did the scum get themselves into this position? Why did Risen sack himself? Why don't you care what he did before he voted to lynch Zephridd? To answer you: Don't know, don't care. What I know is this. There is no reason for a town Risen to do what he did other than he's terrible. I don't think Risen is terrible. Ask the scum how it ended up happening after the game. Right now, there's one thing I'm doing, and one thing you should be doing: ##vote ottoxlol + Show Spoiler + Already did this, added for DRAMATIC emphasis. | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
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ghost_403
United States1825 Posts
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johnnywup
United States3858 Posts
On April 28 2012 05:40 BroodKingEXE wrote: @johnny If we lynch him noe we have a 50% chance of lynching a goon or GF. I'd rather we take the chance than lynch another townie. Great if it he is a goon as they lose a KP, if not we take out a GF which is fine too. In terms of information, people having been defending and accusing him why dont we look at that? wat? | ||
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Ottoxlol
735 Posts
On April 28 2012 04:55 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: Right now, this is what I think on MG - if Ottoxlol flips red, then it's pretty obvious MG was trying to silence layabout who was pointing out 2-3 scums. Layabout was the one who pushed the Brood-Risen-Otto-scum triumvirate the hardest, and MG kinda just backs away from the ordeal at the end: And that's our 4-man scumteam. GG If the triumvirate would be scum why on earth scum MG would say that? | ||
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Ottoxlol
735 Posts
also this post On April 27 2012 14:28 MidnightGladius wrote: I haven't been giving this game the attention I should, between cohosting, work, and term papers. I can see that my play this game was been really lacking, and I just haven't been feeling my reads. I've been hedging my posts, because I honestly haven't felt the same kind of conviction with my cases. That said, mislynching me will cost us the game. You're just going to have to trust me. The fact that a bunch of townies have been pushing for me is disheartening, but I'm sure that you will find scum trying to hammer me today. I have no idea why would anyone trust you because you say so. Excuses also doesnt help the scumhunt, I think no one cares about food poisoning or cat funerals. ##vote MidnightGladius BK started posting some weird stuff, hes voting St. Daniel for ninjavoting, but BM ninjavoted d1 too and he did not mention it at all. ghost and Sentinel doesnt want to engage in the debate of other possibilities then I am a scum. no one can be 100% sure so the discussion must be on even if they vote me, so when I flip green we will have information | ||
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
On April 28 2012 07:14 ghost_403 wrote: @marv: K. Why? Because actually Risen is quite well known for doing dumb and emotional shit, and actually around the deadline with votes very close is a quite plausible time for him to go a bit crazy. Look how emotionally invested he gets into each game and argument. In this case Risen could be 'bad' as you put it because he's all over the place, not because he's a bad player. I'm not saying what I'm saying IS necessarily the case, but it could very well be the case. Your argument is that there is only one plausible option, which I simply do not accept. | ||
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ghost_403
United States1825 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
On April 28 2012 07:30 ghost_403 wrote: @marv: I clearly state there are two positions. Either Risen is bad/emotional/whatever, or Risen is scum. I'm saying the second one of those is the better conclusion. Yes, but that's not a case. That's you thinking one is more likely than the other. THAT IS NOT A CASE. | ||
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johnnywup
United States3858 Posts
On April 28 2012 07:30 ghost_403 wrote: @marv: I clearly state there are two positions. Either Risen is bad/emotional/whatever, or Risen is scum. I'm saying the second one of those is the better conclusion. hows it a better conclusion though? what makes you think thats more likely? i don't want opinions i want quotes that say that he did that on purpose | ||
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johnnywup
United States3858 Posts
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ghost_403
United States1825 Posts
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marvellosity
United Kingdom36156 Posts
On April 28 2012 07:39 ghost_403 wrote: My conclusion is better because it doesn't rely on a player being terrible in order to explain what happened yesterday. Sorry I can't find any quotes where he says "I'm scum, lynch me". Know why that is? It's because he's not terrible. Yes, your case relies on multiple people being terrible. Only a terrible scum TEAM would have let the situation that occurred at the end of the day occur. Risen (or another scum) could have changed their vote MUCH EARLIER. Your case relies on scum fucking up and not doing so. Understand? | ||
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ghost_403
United States1825 Posts
But ghost! How did the scum get themselves into this position? Why did Risen sack himself? Why don't you care what he did before he voted to lynch Zephridd? To answer you: Don't know, don't care. What I know is this. There is no reason for a town Risen to do what he did other than he's terrible. I don't think Risen is terrible. Ask the scum how it ended up happening after the game. | ||
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