|
i think i found the scum team... the entire scum team.
On February 21 2012 05:06 Mattchew wrote:
Zelblade, trackd00r, MidnightGladius, TKHawkins
all switched from ET to Dimmu outstandingly quickly.
This set off an alarm, so I went back and read the exchange of the final hour before the mislynch.
The four of them take over the thread here
CLICK ME
or for those of us to lazy to click and re-read
+ Show Spoiler +On February 19 2012 08:57 jaj22 wrote:
TKHawkins? Gumshoe? Anyone?
I'm thinking this is so tough to get a majority that we might even have picked scum.
On February 19 2012 08:58 MidnightGladius wrote:
TKHawkins, you mispelled it. It won't get counted. On February 19 2012 08:58 trackd00r wrote:hawkins you wrote wrong!!  On February 19 2012 08:59 slOosh wrote:
Copy paste one of our votes
On February 19 2012 08:26 zelblade wrote:Show nested quote +On February 19 2012 08:07 EchelonTee wrote:On February 19 2012 07:59 slOosh wrote:MidnightGladius played totally weird day 1 when he was vig. I can understand the conclusions he came to, and maybe his difference in play is attributable to him not being a vig this time around. On February 19 2012 06:23 slOosh wrote:On February 19 2012 05:20 MidnightGladius wrote:
sl00sh has been quiet, but I'm going to leave him be for now. He doesn't stand out from the rest of the lurkers, and I don't think pressuring him with this little time left in the day will be as effective as just confirming our lynch for the day. Your post left out your thoughts on EchelonTee. What are your thoughts on him and his posting? I discourage trying to lynch MidnightGladius today. Not because he is leaving me alone, but because his focus is on finding scum, not using his precious first day vote to pressure me. I'm not saying he isn't mafia. I'm saying that right now DoYouHas seems like a much better suspect. Midnight is at least following town logic, and I agree with the logic he uses (such as not wanting to share town reads right now. I don't agree with some conclusions he is coming to but the logic is sound). DoYouHas, however is not being logical at all, even though he demonstrates that he knows what town should do in NMMIII. Him not going for any solid reads is very suspicious, I agree. He posted a lot, early last game, even though he was blue, so he would have no reason to be so under the radar at the moment. If he seriously does not change his vote before deadline, then I will find that highly suspicious. His case on you is not solid enough to leave his vote there. However, there is no way enough momentum will be achieved to lynch him atm, and any attempt to do so would be a massive vote switch with not enough discussion. which is bad. MidnightGladius not wanting to share town reads is good logic, but that just means that he is skilled enough to know to say that. You say that he is trying to find scum, but I argue he is only looking for easy mislynches. Im pretty sure that DYH has stated that he will not be around for the lynch, and a few hours after it. Which solidifies the notion that he is scum. I seriously doubt a townie DYH would just dump his vote on such a weak read heavily based on his expactations of sl0osh, formed on ONE game. He is a good player, and this doesnt seem like him. On February 19 2012 08:26 MidnightGladius wrote:
We have less than an hour to reach a consensus. How many people are even active right now?
Mattchew, I thought you wouldn't be around. Why are you voting for me? On February 19 2012 08:28 zelblade wrote:
Midnight, can u adress the case posted by ET? What are your thoughts on him after his defense and what do you think of his case on you? On February 19 2012 08:29 MidnightGladius wrote:Show nested quote +On February 19 2012 08:13 MidnightGladius wrote:
EchelonTee:
1. My first post in NMM3 responded to other posts because other people had posted. In this game, I was the second poster, concurrent with DYH. Your allegation is baseless.
2. Our posting styles are different. You dislike mine, and I dislike yours. Fine. What specifically have I not contributed to? What topics have I failed to address? What questions have I failed to answer?
3. I was referring to FP's terrible use of statistics (saying that 30% chance on a random lynch was good), not the fact that he was green. Anyone trying to use bad reasoning is anti-town in my eyes.
4. jaj22 has no valid case on me. If he did, he would be presenting one. I don't see it. Do you? Don't push him into taking shots at me that he clearly isn't willing to take.
5. gumshoe and I had been the only ones going back and forth for quite some time. He asked me some questions, I answered them, and suggested that we both back off for a bit to cool down and sleep on our thoughts. I happen to think that my reasoning is good, and you still haven't convinced me otherwise. If you think that I'm completely and utterly scummy, then you really need to take a step back and fully re-evaluate the claims that you're making and the evidence from which you're making them. On February 19 2012 08:33 MidnightGladius wrote:
People who seem to be active right now:
1. Me
2. zelblade
3. jaj22
4. Mattchew
5. Janaan
6. gumshoe
We need to make a decision. The town gains nothing from a no lynch. We have 30 minutes.
Looking at the voting list, there's no way we can get a majority on anyone by EchelonTee or me. Make up your minds, or else Day 2 is going to be a mess. On February 19 2012 08:35 trackd00r wrote:Lynch time is approaching. ET, I just hope that you keep posting good cases like that. Even though I disagree with MG lynch, your last posts are making up my mind. I'm going to unvote by now. As for the candidates we have now, I think that our biggest option is DimmuKlok. Yes, it's been a while since you haven't posted good content. This post caught my attention: Show nested quote +On February 18 2012 14:27 DimmuKlok wrote:
I accidentally posted before I was finished. I will continue from where i left off.
I'm not actually sure what you meant by that, but nothing in that post was sarcasm. I'm was not bandwagoning when it came to gumshoe. He was one of my highest suspicions at the time of the post, and remains the highest on my list. For this reason I'm giving him my vote.
If there is anything I can do for you guys to help prove my innocence then feel free to post it.
##vote: gumshoe Proving your innocence is something that you should be doing subconsciously when playing as town. You know that you are innocent, and that should be enough to show your confidence to us. I expect a mafia player trying to ask for help, but not a townie. Your other posts were your defense against alderan, apologies and calling out lurkers. I think that scum is making it's best effort to hide your case, but as the lynch is coming, I have to cast a realistic vote that doesn't hurt the town. ##Unvote: EchelonTee##Vote: DimmuKlokThe is a chance that I miss the lynch, but I'll try to not. On February 19 2012 08:35 zelblade wrote:
I am quite sure that both of you arent scum. Can we get a switch to DYH? I will add my vote onto one of you guys if neccessary, but only to prevent a no lynch - as that would be disatrious. On February 19 2012 08:39 zelblade wrote:
Just filtered DimmuKlok. Wouldnt terribly mind lynching him.
Guys if you are here, please chime in. Dont bring up new candidates please. Also, those on gumshoe should switch since it seems like he wont be lynched if you are here. Its going to be hard to achieve a majority and we need every single one of you here, and if you are, vote for one of the four NOW. On February 19 2012 08:44 zelblade wrote:
Gosh we are gonna no lynch at this rate. On February 19 2012 08:44 MidnightGladius wrote:
20 minutes left. Are we seriously just going to sit idly and let the first day go by?
##Unvote: EchelonTee
##Vote: DimmuKlok On February 19 2012 08:45 jaj22 wrote:
I don't want to lynch DYH, as I think his posting was fine up to the lynch business. It's possible he felt it was the best of two bad options.
DimmuKlok is plausible scum due to lack of contribution but also plausible scared-town. I'm considering him as a compromise vote.
TKHawkins and Sloosh should still be around.
On February 19 2012 08:46 EchelonTee wrote:
I'm fine with DimmuKlok lynch. Obviously don want no lynch still dotaing. On February 19 2012 08:46 zelblade wrote:
##Unvote
##Vote: DimmuKlok
DYH will sadly not be lynched today, so Im switching to my 2nd strongest read (on the four current candidates) On February 19 2012 08:51 MidnightGladius wrote:
In that case we still need 1 more vote on DimmuKlok to get majority. Where did everyone who was posting earlier go?
I still don't have replies from:
- gumshoe
- Mattchew
- Janaan
gumshoe was active all of yesterday, and now he suddenly decides to disappear? At the most important time? And then Mattchew pops into the thread, posts a one-liner, and vanishes again? When he said earlier that he wouldn't be back until after the lynch? Christ in buckets. On February 19 2012 08:52 jaj22 wrote:
Switching to DimmuKlok. That makes six, and seven if ET switches. Need one more to lynch.
##Unvote
##Vote DimmuKlok
On February 19 2012 08:52 slOosh wrote:
Not letting no lynch happen.
##Unvote
##Vote DimmuKlok
Now tell me this doesn't look like teamwork. They don't even have to provide a reason other than "i don't want a no-lynch and I dont like the midnight case" Sloosh and Jaj get pulled into the lynching is pro-town atmosphere and then when 1 more vote is needed TKHAWKINS MAGICALLY ARRIVES READY TO CHANGE HIS VOTE WOO WOO.
reading their filters they are all afraid to talk about one another... do a ctrl f of each
MidnightGladius
MG has 3 pages of filter, yet only mention zelblade once here
+ Show Spoiler +On February 19 2012 08:33 MidnightGladius wrote:
People who seem to be active right now:
1. Me
2. zelblade
3. jaj22
4. Mattchew
5. Janaan
6. gumshoe
We need to make a decision. The town gains nothing from a no lynch. We have 30 minutes.
Looking at the voting list, there's no way we can get a majority on anyone by EchelonTee or me. Make up your minds, or else Day 2 is going to be a mess.
he only mentions tkhawk once here
+ Show Spoiler +On February 19 2012 08:59 MidnightGladius wrote:
In buckets!
and a ctrl-f of track provides 0 results
Zelblade
Zelblade reads midnight from null to town very quickly and back to null again
Ctrl-F reveals
+ Show Spoiler +On February 18 2012 14:02 zelblade wrote:
I am null on MidnightGladius for now. His posts have been related to the setup as mentioned, but he did seem to focus alot on the setup in Newbie Mini Mafia III too. Could go either way for now. On February 19 2012 08:24 zelblade wrote:
Now onto MidnightGladius. I do not believe that he is mafia. He seems to be playing really similiar to NMMIII, where he (on day 1 at least) constantly posts fluff and speculates on the setup. However, ET raises some good points against MG, and I would like to see his responses especially to the "scumslip" raised by ET. I am not willing to lynch him for now.
On February 19 2012 08:28 zelblade wrote:
Midnight, can u adress the case posted by ET? What are your thoughts on him after his defense and what do you think of his case on you? As for EchelonTee and MidnightGladius, The two of them were the main candidates for lynch today before the last minute switch to dimmu since the players present couldnt achieve a majority on either of them. Honestly, I had them pegged as both town. The main reason for my suspisions on ET earlier was for his sheep vote before going away without any sort of reasoning - and I expect more from him due to the fact that he seems to be a good and experienced player. His responses to my suspisions and the many other cases on him are also good, and he clearly addresses them, as well as posting a detailed case on MG. As such, I dropped my vote on him. I have also repetadely stated that MG is probably town - he seems to be playing similar to last game, with a tendancy to post fluff and speculation regarding the setup. I also didnt really find his actions condemning. However, having reread his filter and taken another look at ET's case, he does seem to have a tendancy to push only the easiest targerts. I would really like to see him make a few more reads. Another thing that is suspisious about the both of them is their actions leading up to the lynch. Despite apparently being convinced that each other was scum, they hardly did anything about it, hardly pushing each other. If my strongest scum read was closest to majority along with me, I would definately attempt to get as many as possible to switch off me and onto my scum read. I can understand their reasons for switching, but them not pushing harder seems wierd to me. For now, these two could, imo, flip any way. They could be 2 townies tunneling each other, a townie and a mafia going at each other, or perhaps even 2 mafia bussing each other (doubtful). Either way, my reads on both of them are Null for now.
With Tk its 1 post leaning town
+ Show Spoiler +On February 19 2012 23:27 zelblade wrote:
TKHawkins - As with Janaan, transparent. Even though I dont really agree with some of his reads and logic, I get the feel of townie trying to help from him. Leaning [green]town[/green].
with track he's null
+ Show Spoiler +On February 19 2012 23:27 zelblade wrote:trackdo0r - He has been transparent with his reads during the first part of the day. However, he has started to post less, and the content of his posts have also dwindled. Im gonna just quote you here: Show nested quote +-Zelbalde has only posted once, giving advice to us and apologizing. This was his biggest flaw last game. We know that you are a busy person zelblade, but posting just once is fine, instead of refilling your posts with more 'sorry' and making you either difficult to read or a scum candidate. Do what you have asked me to do. Instead of apologising for your inactivity, post your reads, and push them. You have promised them though, and i will be looking forward to seeing them. Null for now.
Trackdo0r
His soft defenses and weak town reads on midnight
+ Show Spoiler +On February 18 2012 01:59 trackd00r wrote:
-MidnightGladius has somewhat posted in the begging of the game. However, he does still have that flaw present in the past game, which is to make useless calculations and proportions about the mafia/town ratio. I feel that doesn't really contributes much to the dialogue. His next post have been better though, analyzing and commenting about the Echelon-sloosh clash and the not that succesful plan of gumshoe. I hope he keeps like that.
Important to mention that those 3 players had blue roles in NMM3, so looking through their posts in the next days can make a clearer picture of them and their attitude to everything in general.
On February 18 2012 11:39 trackd00r wrote:
MidnightGladius: You are in the very edge of what I consider constructive posting and what is just repeating what others said. I look you more to the path of constructiveness, but I'm expecting more about you. Your posting was slightly better in NMM3, although limited still (you were vig that game). Be a little more aggressive, but that's all.
On February 18 2012 12:54 trackd00r wrote:Show nested quote +On February 18 2012 12:49 EchelonTee wrote:
trackdoor, my plan is to lynch scum. as townie, i'm nost supposed to have elaborate plans. why would u assume that i have a master plan
can ppl stop ignoring my post on dimmuklok. stop saying that i'm doing nothing and posting "flashy", i posted some analysis. OK, fine. Now I would like to hear some analysis about your vote on MidnightGladius On February 20 2012 12:23 trackd00r wrote:
Personally, I'm not convinced with MidnightGladius case. I don't agree with the reasoning that jaj and ET gave. I'm not going to get into details about that, since we need to focus in other targets that don't create chaos.
His softest pressure in the world into friendly town read on Zelblade
+ Show Spoiler +On February 18 2012 01:59 trackd00r wrote:
-Zelbalde has only posted once, giving advice to us and apologizing. This was his biggest flaw last game. We know that you are a busy person zelblade, but posting just once is fine, instead of refilling your posts with more 'sorry' and making you either difficult to read or a scum candidate. On February 18 2012 23:41 trackd00r wrote:
Zelblade, I'm glad you are posting again
On February 21 2012 01:15 trackd00r wrote:
Regarding the DYH situation, I believe the best we can do is hold the vote to him. The only real and possibly working solution that scum can pull if DYH is red is to push other cases now. I agree with the points that Zelblade made. No one is going to jump into the spotlight and defend him.
Next to nothing on TK
+ Show Spoiler +On February 18 2012 11:39 trackd00r wrote:TWhawkins This has been his only contribution so far: Show nested quote +On February 17 2012 13:56 TKHawkins wrote:
Welcome.
First game on this forum. Anyway, I don't think Gumshoes poll is scummy. It's more likely he just thought "he I wonder if this idea would work." Clearly the answer is no and he didn't really think it through. Seems like more of newbie attempt at something more then anything else. I'm sure the obsever quick thread is already LOLing hard at us. I laughed too (and didn't vote since I hadn't known the game had started).
As for the policy on Lurker hunting, it's obviously a bit early to call people lurkers since many people might not even know the game has started yet (though definately not too early to discuss how to handle lurkers). It is best not to go after lurkers right away. The mafia generally aren't going to be completely inactive at the start. Rather, they are going to try to blend in. Scum post a reasonable amount, but don't contribute.
And finally, the Sl0osh vs Ech thing, I do think it's suspicious for Sl0osh to be acting defensive already. We need to hear more. Please, don't be shy. Come with some accusations. Your posts somewhat seem to you to look interested, but your post count says to opposite. On February 18 2012 23:41 trackd00r wrote:
@TKhawkins: There is a huge difference between a player who posts lots of content less posts and one who post a few but deep and content. For example blae000 hasn't posted a lot of times, but his posts are good. Ech and gumshoe, in the other hand...
TKHawkins
Literally the worst post about a player I have ever seen... about zelblade... from "I don't see how he is contributing" to "Pro-town" IN LESS THAN 2 SENTENCES LOL
+ Show Spoiler +On February 19 2012 02:45 TKHawkins wrote:
Zelblade Says Ech is mafia and... that's it? I don't see how he is contributing if he is only going to comment on one or two players. The stuff he says about Ech though is good. Pro-town, but lurking too much.
Read these posts on Midnight. If they don't scream soft defense (and a little chainsaw defense too) I literally do not know what does.
+ Show Spoiler +On February 19 2012 02:45 TKHawkins wrote:
Midnight I can't get a solid read on him.
On February 19 2012 02:53 TKHawkins wrote:
Blae, since I have you here, what do you think of Midnight? On February 19 2012 04:37 TKHawkins wrote:Show nested quote +On February 19 2012 03:34 jaj22 wrote:On February 19 2012 02:45 TKHawkins wrote:
jaj Says flashy and aggressive play are not scummy when talking about Ech. But that's also how he is playing. Convenient eh? Would like more of an explanation about why Midnight in particular deserves a pressure vote, when there are so many others that could have used that too. 1. If you don't believe me on that point, you can PM Palmar and ask him. Or you can just read Palmar's town play. 2. That's not a pressure vote. I think he's scum. You can tell because I wrote a case on him with his name in bold red text. While his contribution to town is no lower than a lot of other players, he's the one who should know better. I'll be writing another post covering his play since my case shortly. It's not that I don't think the point is generally valid. It's that I think it's self serving. It's like one blonde saying to another blonde that "blondes have more fun." Show nested quote +On February 18 2012 09:31 jaj22 wrote:
Ok, screw it. I'm making a case.
MidnightGladius:
1. Starts off with a number of completely useless posts on setup. Didn't even do the probability.
2. Makes the usual post on ET vs Sloosh and Gumshoe's poll. Yeah, so did everyone else.
3. Votes the easy target (MannerKiss) with an elaborate lurker-lynch reasoning.
4. Votes the easy target (Gumshoe) because he spams and sucks at statistics.
That's it. Low post count apart from the setup filler. No interest in anyone in except the easy targets, and contributing next to nothing to town as a result. I don't think he posted much more in Newbie Mini III, but he had the excuse of being blue there, and it was a slower game (too damn slow). He should know better.
Probably much too early to be putting people in bold red, but I'm bored waiting for all the lurkers to post.
Like I said earlier, I still can't get a good read on Midnight, and looking through filters neither can a few other people. Even your accusation starts with "oh, screw it. I'm making a case." That makes me think you don't even believe the accusation yourself. You even say the only reason you did it was because you were bored. If you have something more since then to back it up, please post. Otherwise there is no way in hell I'm voting for Midnight based on just that. On February 19 2012 05:50 TKHawkins wrote:##Vote: EchelonTeeHe rides the coat tails of other people's thoughts + Show Spoiler +On February 18 2012 09:54 EchelonTee wrote:Show nested quote +On February 18 2012 09:51 MidnightGladius wrote:
Finally some excitement! Or are you just going to run some of that point-by-point analysis with the red numbers? you're hilarious. DoYouHas, I'm soft defending gumshoe now. I guess you were writing up your post without seeing the updates. We have the same thoughts though. Let's lynch MidnightGladius. Or DimmuKloK no seriously, I gtg. I love the activity though, so refreshing  He then jumps along with jaj22's post and votes for Midnight. He would not be on my radar if it wasn't for that. I can't see a strong reason for the MidnightGladius vote especially with both the people voting for him not backing up their vote once it's questioned. On February 19 2012 08:57 TKHawkins wrote:
Bah accidentally deleted my post because I was flipping through various windows. ##unvote: EchelonTee While I don't completely believe his read on Midnight enough to vote for Midnight, Ech at least followed through with his word and eventually gave a reason (abiet, giving people like me very little time left to change our votes).
##Vote DimmunKlok He's the best candidate we got right now. On February 19 2012 11:27 TKHawkins wrote:Alright, having reread some stuff after the flip, Alderan was the first to put up a case for DDimmuKlok and stuck on him. Show nested quote +On February 19 2012 07:34 Alderan wrote:On February 19 2012 07:24 EchelonTee wrote:
Dimmuklok responded adequately to Alderan's post, which was similar to mine. DYH and sloosh need more info as far as I'm concerned, so that only leaves:
Can someone please explain this sentiment? Am I missing something? To my case he responded:"I'm new, I'm new, I don't understand your case, I'm new." His play after my case:"I'm still on my gumshoe wagon, I don't know what to think about Midnight, I don't know what I think about Hawkin and Manner, and I'm too tired to give an opinion on Steveling" If someone can please point me to the direction of pro town play I would greatly appreciate it. And he is another player posting his inability to read Midnight and some weak calls. On February 20 2012 05:29 TKHawkins wrote:Thoughts on EchelonTee I still don't buy the Midnight argument. There is sorta a WIFOM argument to his post's existence. Half the town had told him if he didn't post something against Midnight, we were lynching him. So, he posted something against Midnight. He'd post that regardless of whether he was town or scum. Show nested quote +On February 19 2012 07:24 EchelonTee wrote:On February 18 2012 06:31 MidnightGladius wrote:On February 18 2012 06:14 gumshoe wrote:On February 18 2012 05:53 DoYouHas wrote:On February 18 2012 05:44 gumshoe wrote:
Definitley need to take the risk of a lurker lynch, there are three lurkers currently in the game, manner zell and one more I forget, theres a 75 percent chance one of them is mafia. A chance I think we need to take cause were one townie short.
Could you explain this further? I don't follow the 75% chance. In a sample group of 4 random players in a 16 player game with 4 mafia its almost a 100 percent chance that one of the 4 in the random group is mafia, this is not a random group though, none of these 3 specific lurkers have contributed much making them suspeicius which increases the odds of them bieng mafia. Overall if we pick a lynch from of the three random lurkers there is statistically speaking a good chance that one of them will be mafia, because a) one in four players is probably mafia and b) there behaviour is suspicious. I only see three obvious lurkers therefore the odds are not 100 percent of one of them being mafia. There is a 60 percent chance rather(15 divided by 5 = 3 three is 20 percent of 15. So the odds of three random players being lurkers is twenty percent, but the odds of one of them being mafia is 60 percent exactly. Christ in buckets, it's FakePromise all over again :S Gumshoe's statistical analysis is misleading and flawed. I'd rather not clutter up this topic with the details, but in non-technical terms, he's making WIFOM assumptions in setting up the problem, not counting the distribution of outcomes properly, and I don't even know how what he means by: [redacted] At this point I'm going to have to assume malicious intent. Several of us have warned him about this, and he's continuing to try and derail the discussion. He's been spamming even more than before, using really bizarre logic to defend himself, and he still has yet to provide much in the way of content. In a way, this is worse than lurking, and it's way beyond what I would expect an innocent newbie to do :/ ##Unvote: MannerKiss##Vote: Gumshoe 3..........this has to be a scum slip. FakePromise was a GREEN, TOWNIE last game. If you see another fakepromise, why are you voting him??? How is he being malicious, hes just making bad statistical analysis!! at this point you are pushing a terrible lynch. So he thinks Midnight voting Gumshoe is a terrible lynch push and comparing Gumshoe to FakePromise is a scum slip. Show nested quote +On February 19 2012 09:27 EchelonTee wrote:On February 19 2012 08:19 gumshoe wrote:
I have an aching feeling that Ech will flip green if we kill him ) : that opening move of his was almost as bad as mine and hes supposed to be good, I cant imagine him being coached by other mafia through all this. I hate it but its gonna have to be a no lynch unless gladeus says he eats babies or something. Maybe we can vote for one of the lurkers? Manner/michael? Zell?
1. i'm not good. why suggest this so openly. this is my 4th game playing. 2. as mattchew said, this could be a scumslip; he knows I would flip green and is planting this. After my aggressive opening towards gumshoe I dont know why he would support me as such. Thoughts? Oh so pushing Gumshoe back into the center of attention. Ech thinks Gumshoe could be scum now. So that means Midnight's push to lynch him wasn't terrible. So your justification for going after Midnight has gone away right? Nope. Show nested quote +On February 19 2012 09:38 EchelonTee wrote:On February 19 2012 09:33 slOosh wrote:
So ... the lynch is over and you two (EchelonTee & MidnightGladius) just drop the cases on each other?
What do you guys think of each other? I still think he's scum. Going after Mattchew, Mannerkiss's replacement is consistent, so I can't fault him for that, but I can't agree with him wanting to vote him for 1. voting himself, aka OMGUS, and 2. being AWOL from thread with excuse. he could be using his phone you know. Or maybe he hasn't quite left yet. Point is, mattchew isn't being constructive but he not an autovote. especially because he's only posted a bit. However, I think examining the other happenings in the thread is a good idea. I could endlessly tunnel Midnight, but I need to get a good look at the bigger picture. Besides, you really think its strange that I'm addressing the lynch that just happened, over midnight? I was literally the last voter on him, I should be scrutinized for doing so. On February 20 2012 11:28 TKHawkins wrote:Show nested quote +On February 20 2012 10:43 gumshoe wrote:
DYH what do you think of my argument about Jaj being the best pick due to his death leaving so many conflicts intact, and what do you think of Hawk? The reason I ask the first question is because I think you and sloosh might have to drop your fight and I think I have to stop attacking Steveling as well, because I feel like the mafia took care to leave these flimsy conflicts intact so they could continue to create chaos, thats why I think they killed jaj despite the fact that the case for him being blue was not 100 percent(though as I mentioned earlier it did seem pretty strong from my perspective). That is unless Jaj posed the biggest threat regardless and just had to die. Which do you think was the bigger reason? conflict preservation or threat elimination?
Oh and the second question about Hawk is just out of curiosity(SUSPICIOUS CURIOSITY!) That's the definition of WIFOM logic. Best not to over think it. As for your suspicions against me because I was against the Midnight vote. I couldn't get a good read on Midnight, and neither can a lot of people. The only people who did have a read on him were reading him as scum. That fact alone is odd and suspicious. I'm not sure Midnight is town, I'm just more comfortable following my own reads then blindly following somebody else's. On February 20 2012 12:08 TKHawkins wrote:
I'm not sold on the logic of the Midnight read, but I'm not going to go after you anymore based on just a bad read.
Track - from 1 question, 1 answer to pro-town
+ Show Spoiler +On February 18 2012 16:25 TKHawkins wrote:
@Trackdoor, just a question. I seem to recall you being one of the few who didn't want to lynch lurkers. But your analysis seems to be mostly, this guy is posting a lot so he's town. Have you changed your policy on lynching lurkers or is this just your way to make them post? On February 19 2012 01:05 TKHawkins wrote:
@Trackdoor. Alright, I get your explanation on the lurker thing. On February 19 2012 02:45 TKHawkins wrote:
Trackdoor Pressuring lurkers to post. Makes reasonable statements about Ech. Isn't being super aggressive, but rather analytic. Pro-town read.
I don't believe in coincidence... the same 4 people that hop from ET to Dimmu all think pro-town of each other and have almost all defended each other at some point?.
|
sloosh i want you to drop the DYH tunnel you have and actually look at this
DYH you were already on hawkins a little read this through
gumshoe read this carefully and quote it properly if you want to reply
ald and steve i think you might have been starting to head this way, I will now take you to the promised land
ET you might have been getting at this but idk where you were actually headed
Janaan you seem to just want a lynch read this and want these lynches
##unvote Doyouhas
##vote TKHawkins
|
oh... and wouldnt you know they are all on DYH... doesnt that lynch seem to be going through just TOO easily... yes it does.
(i know this is a little WIFOM but combined with my prior posts it turns more into logic)
|
Sloosh, you wanted me to skim through your filter and I did. You told me that I would find evidence that you were being pro town, supporting discussion and not tunneling DYH.
I took your advice and here's all the pro-discussion posts I found:
What we need right now is focus. Work with the current cases unless you have something really compelling to share.
Your stance on DYH and MG?
MidnightGladius: What do you think of DoYouHas?
And THEN you realize DYH is gonna be lynched so you say this:
It is in our best interest to now redirect our focus on finding new scum candidates, rather than taking a break until he gets lynched. Time is valuable and I do not want people to become lax.
Saying that you are not hard lining DYH is asinine, you absolutely are. You just think there no more reason to pursue him as your goal is already complete.
But this is the one I ESPECIALLY LOVE
Whether DYH flips red or green should not direct us to our next lynch target.
Mafia know each other and can manipulate their connections, knowing that they might be linked.
This is the equivalent of saying, "Guys, guys, check it out, we totally shouldn't look at who started the train on DYH if he flips green, I'm sure it doesn't mean anything.....
Let's be real though, all this "pro-town" discussion didn't get in the way of you throwing out gems like this:
WOW. Lynch him NOW.... Don't even wait for his case. Lynch him.
TOWN ARE YOU TRYING TO GO FOR NO LYNCH AGAIN???
Sounds good. My read on you was based upon you thinking DYH as town. As you state that you don't, I drop my suspicion.
|
ald any thoughts what i posted... sloosh is playing the exact same as his last game btw
|
On February 21 2012 09:21 Mattchew wrote:
sloosh i want you to drop the DYH tunnel you have and actually look at this
DYH you were already on hawkins a little read this through
gumshoe read this carefully and quote it properly if you want to reply
ald and steve i think you might have been starting to head this way, I will now take you to the promised land
ET you might have been getting at this but idk where you were actually headed
Janaan you seem to just want a lynch read this and want these lynches
##unvote Doyouhas
##vote TKHawkins
I don't know how you figure that I just want a lynch, considering that I switched away from a majority target on Day 1, but that's beside the point, I suppose.
It's definitely something to think about, for sure. The good thing is that we do have a bit of time, if we need it, before the actual vote deadline. So here's what I'll do. I do want to hear other opinions on the case and read everything myself before I vote for anyone else. But, for the moment, I'll ##Unvote: DoYouHas If I'm unconvinced, my vote will go back to DoYouHas. I just want to consider all the possibilities, and one of those possibilities is that DYH isn't scum.
|
Mattchew, that's brilliant. So brilliant, in fact, that I have to wonder about the false positive rate of the "no mutual mentions" method. If you look through the filters, the primary way that players mention everyone else is to do so through a list, town/null/scum style. Players who don't use such lists are always going to get "caught" by your method, which is why I think it's far less telling than you insist.
You're right, I haven' talked to zelblade, trackdoor, or TKHawkins. I also didn't explicitly deal with Steveling, sloosh, Janaan, or DimmuKlok. The only players I've directly talked to have been those attacking me, or those that I've been suspicious of.
Guess what, you haven't been talking to everyone, either. No one has!
I'm not going to go through every other player's filter and do the same thing, because you should see the point. This method encourages confirmation bias, doesn't really discriminate between innocents and scum, and then sounds really really convincing unless you look at the bias in the process.
|
Also, we decided on the deadline for a good reason. If we're all going to start switching, it's going to create a hell of an accountability problem, with people having a reasonable excuse in that they committed to their votes beforehand and weren't in the thread to respond properly. That will cause a huge amount of chaos, and it will destroy all of the progress that we've made today.
|
On February 21 2012 10:02 MidnightGladius wrote:
Mattchew, that's brilliant. So brilliant, in fact, that I have to wonder about the false positive rate of the "no mutual mentions" method. If you look through the filters, the primary way that players mention everyone else is to do so through a list, town/null/scum style. Players who don't use such lists are always going to get "caught" by your method, which is why I think it's far less telling than you insist.
You're right, I haven' talked to zelblade, trackdoor, or TKHawkins. I also didn't explicitly deal with Steveling, sloosh, Janaan, or DimmuKlok. The only players I've directly talked to have been those attacking me, or those that I've been suspicious of.
Guess what, you haven't been talking to everyone, either. No one has!
I'm not going to go through every other player's filter and do the same thing, because you should see the point. This method encourages confirmation bias, doesn't really discriminate between innocents and scum, and then sounds really really convincing unless you look at the bias in the process.
lol... i like how scum pick out 1 part of a case and dont add it up with the rest of it
|
Shiiiiiiat Mattchew! You might have done it, lol.
I'll drop my janaan research and start one on trackdoor since he's the one with the less posts iirc.
Considering what I find and how the cases on the others subjects go I might even withdraw my DYH vote.
I still think he's scummy but we might find more damning evidence on these guys.
So, tomorrow morning-noon I'll post.
|
Mattchew, your use of red and larger font is astounding :p
MG has a point, but only slightly. Not mentioning someone is not absolutely tell, but it is DEFINITELY a factor. In my previous, newbie-style games as scum, I barely talked to my teammates in game unless I was busing them, or lightly agreeing with them. Of those 4, I'd bet my left foot that there are more than one scum in there, but not necessarily all 4.
Alderan, I'd like it if you refocus'd on the case at hand. Arguing sloosh's case on DYH is fine and all, but you're borderline using chainsaw defense (attack someone's attacker to defend someone) here. If you don't want to talk about how DYH is town to you, then talk about who you think is scum, especially from Mattchew's recent post. If it's sloosh then have at it.
I agree that the case on DYH is too slippery. The way I see it, all of the pro-town players agreed with sloosh, while the scum rode the happy fun coattails of sloosh's work. I do not think that ruling out DYH is a good idea in the slightest (could be getting bused), but I'm going to post a larger case on TKHawkins in a sec.
|
On February 21 2012 09:16 Mattchew wrote:i think i found the scum team... the entire scum team. TKHawkinsLiterally the worst post about a player I have ever seen... about zelblade... from "I don't see how he is contributing" to "Pro-town" IN LESS THAN 2 SENTENCES LOL + Show Spoiler +On February 19 2012 02:45 TKHawkins wrote:
Zelblade Says Ech is mafia and... that's it? I don't see how he is contributing if he is only going to comment on one or two players. The stuff he says about Ech though is good. Pro-town, but lurking too much.
On February 19 2012 02:45 TKHawkins wrote:
Midnight I can't get a solid read on him.
On February 19 2012 02:53 TKHawkins wrote:
Blae, since I have you here, what do you think of Midnight? On February 19 2012 04:37 TKHawkins wrote:Show nested quote +On February 19 2012 03:34 jaj22 wrote:On February 19 2012 02:45 TKHawkins wrote:
jaj Says flashy and aggressive play are not scummy when talking about Ech. But that's also how he is playing. Convenient eh? Would like more of an explanation about why Midnight in particular deserves a pressure vote, when there are so many others that could have used that too. 1. If you don't believe me on that point, you can PM Palmar and ask him. Or you can just read Palmar's town play. 2. That's not a pressure vote. I think he's scum. You can tell because I wrote a case on him with his name in bold red text. While his contribution to town is no lower than a lot of other players, he's the one who should know better. I'll be writing another post covering his play since my case shortly. It's not that I don't think the point is generally valid. It's that I think it's self serving. It's like one blonde saying to another blonde that "blondes have more fun." Show nested quote +On February 18 2012 09:31 jaj22 wrote:
Ok, screw it. I'm making a case.
MidnightGladius:
1. Starts off with a number of completely useless posts on setup. Didn't even do the probability.
2. Makes the usual post on ET vs Sloosh and Gumshoe's poll. Yeah, so did everyone else.
3. Votes the easy target (MannerKiss) with an elaborate lurker-lynch reasoning.
4. Votes the easy target (Gumshoe) because he spams and sucks at statistics.
That's it. Low post count apart from the setup filler. No interest in anyone in except the easy targets, and contributing next to nothing to town as a result. I don't think he posted much more in Newbie Mini III, but he had the excuse of being blue there, and it was a slower game (too damn slow). He should know better.
Probably much too early to be putting people in bold red, but I'm bored waiting for all the lurkers to post.
Like I said earlier, I still can't get a good read on Midnight, and looking through filters neither can a few other people. Even your accusation starts with "oh, screw it. I'm making a case." That makes me think you don't even believe the accusation yourself. You even say the only reason you did it was because you were bored. If you have something more since then to back it up, please post. Otherwise there is no way in hell I'm voting for Midnight based on just that. On February 19 2012 05:50 TKHawkins wrote:##Vote: EchelonTeeHe rides the coat tails of other people's thoughts + Show Spoiler +On February 18 2012 09:54 EchelonTee wrote:Show nested quote +On February 18 2012 09:51 MidnightGladius wrote:
Finally some excitement! Or are you just going to run some of that point-by-point analysis with the red numbers? you're hilarious. DoYouHas, I'm soft defending gumshoe now. I guess you were writing up your post without seeing the updates. We have the same thoughts though. Let's lynch MidnightGladius. Or DimmuKloK no seriously, I gtg. I love the activity though, so refreshing He then jumps along with jaj22's post and votes for Midnight. He would not be on my radar if it wasn't for that. I can't see a strong reason for the MidnightGladius vote especially with both the people voting for him not backing up their vote once it's questioned. On February 19 2012 08:57 TKHawkins wrote:
Bah accidentally deleted my post because I was flipping through various windows. ##unvote: EchelonTee While I don't completely believe his read on Midnight enough to vote for Midnight, Ech at least followed through with his word and eventually gave a reason (abiet, giving people like me very little time left to change our votes).
##Vote DimmunKlok He's the best candidate we got right now. On February 19 2012 11:27 TKHawkins wrote:Alright, having reread some stuff after the flip, Alderan was the first to put up a case for DDimmuKlok and stuck on him. Show nested quote +On February 19 2012 07:34 Alderan wrote:On February 19 2012 07:24 EchelonTee wrote:
Dimmuklok responded adequately to Alderan's post, which was similar to mine. DYH and sloosh need more info as far as I'm concerned, so that only leaves:
Can someone please explain this sentiment? Am I missing something? To my case he responded:"I'm new, I'm new, I don't understand your case, I'm new." His play after my case:"I'm still on my gumshoe wagon, I don't know what to think about Midnight, I don't know what I think about Hawkin and Manner, and I'm too tired to give an opinion on Steveling" If someone can please point me to the direction of pro town play I would greatly appreciate it. And he is another player posting his inability to read Midnight and some weak calls. On February 20 2012 05:29 TKHawkins wrote:Thoughts on EchelonTee I still don't buy the Midnight argument. There is sorta a WIFOM argument to his post's existence. Half the town had told him if he didn't post something against Midnight, we were lynching him. So, he posted something against Midnight. He'd post that regardless of whether he was town or scum. Show nested quote +On February 19 2012 07:24 EchelonTee wrote:On February 18 2012 06:31 MidnightGladius wrote:On February 18 2012 06:14 gumshoe wrote:On February 18 2012 05:53 DoYouHas wrote:On February 18 2012 05:44 gumshoe wrote:
Definitley need to take the risk of a lurker lynch, there are three lurkers currently in the game, manner zell and one more I forget, theres a 75 percent chance one of them is mafia. A chance I think we need to take cause were one townie short.
Could you explain this further? I don't follow the 75% chance. In a sample group of 4 random players in a 16 player game with 4 mafia its almost a 100 percent chance that one of the 4 in the random group is mafia, this is not a random group though, none of these 3 specific lurkers have contributed much making them suspeicius which increases the odds of them bieng mafia. Overall if we pick a lynch from of the three random lurkers there is statistically speaking a good chance that one of them will be mafia, because a) one in four players is probably mafia and b) there behaviour is suspicious. I only see three obvious lurkers therefore the odds are not 100 percent of one of them being mafia. There is a 60 percent chance rather(15 divided by 5 = 3 three is 20 percent of 15. So the odds of three random players being lurkers is twenty percent, but the odds of one of them being mafia is 60 percent exactly. Christ in buckets, it's FakePromise all over again :S Gumshoe's statistical analysis is misleading and flawed. I'd rather not clutter up this topic with the details, but in non-technical terms, he's making WIFOM assumptions in setting up the problem, not counting the distribution of outcomes properly, and I don't even know how what he means by: [redacted] At this point I'm going to have to assume malicious intent. Several of us have warned him about this, and he's continuing to try and derail the discussion. He's been spamming even more than before, using really bizarre logic to defend himself, and he still has yet to provide much in the way of content. In a way, this is worse than lurking, and it's way beyond what I would expect an innocent newbie to do :/ ##Unvote: MannerKiss##Vote: Gumshoe 3..........this has to be a scum slip. FakePromise was a GREEN, TOWNIE last game. If you see another fakepromise, why are you voting him??? How is he being malicious, hes just making bad statistical analysis!! at this point you are pushing a terrible lynch. So he thinks Midnight voting Gumshoe is a terrible lynch push and comparing Gumshoe to FakePromise is a scum slip. Show nested quote +On February 19 2012 09:27 EchelonTee wrote:On February 19 2012 08:19 gumshoe wrote:
I have an aching feeling that Ech will flip green if we kill him ) : that opening move of his was almost as bad as mine and hes supposed to be good, I cant imagine him being coached by other mafia through all this. I hate it but its gonna have to be a no lynch unless gladeus says he eats babies or something. Maybe we can vote for one of the lurkers? Manner/michael? Zell?
1. i'm not good. why suggest this so openly. this is my 4th game playing. 2. as mattchew said, this could be a scumslip; he knows I would flip green and is planting this. After my aggressive opening towards gumshoe I dont know why he would support me as such. Thoughts? Oh so pushing Gumshoe back into the center of attention. Ech thinks Gumshoe could be scum now. So that means Midnight's push to lynch him wasn't terrible. So your justification for going after Midnight has gone away right? Nope. Show nested quote +On February 19 2012 09:38 EchelonTee wrote:On February 19 2012 09:33 slOosh wrote:
So ... the lynch is over and you two (EchelonTee & MidnightGladius) just drop the cases on each other?
What do you guys think of each other? I still think he's scum. Going after Mattchew, Mannerkiss's replacement is consistent, so I can't fault him for that, but I can't agree with him wanting to vote him for 1. voting himself, aka OMGUS, and 2. being AWOL from thread with excuse. he could be using his phone you know. Or maybe he hasn't quite left yet. Point is, mattchew isn't being constructive but he not an autovote. especially because he's only posted a bit. However, I think examining the other happenings in the thread is a good idea. I could endlessly tunnel Midnight, but I need to get a good look at the bigger picture. Besides, you really think its strange that I'm addressing the lynch that just happened, over midnight? I was literally the last voter on him, I should be scrutinized for doing so. On February 20 2012 11:28 TKHawkins wrote:Show nested quote +On February 20 2012 10:43 gumshoe wrote:
DYH what do you think of my argument about Jaj being the best pick due to his death leaving so many conflicts intact, and what do you think of Hawk? The reason I ask the first question is because I think you and sloosh might have to drop your fight and I think I have to stop attacking Steveling as well, because I feel like the mafia took care to leave these flimsy conflicts intact so they could continue to create chaos, thats why I think they killed jaj despite the fact that the case for him being blue was not 100 percent(though as I mentioned earlier it did seem pretty strong from my perspective). That is unless Jaj posed the biggest threat regardless and just had to die. Which do you think was the bigger reason? conflict preservation or threat elimination?
Oh and the second question about Hawk is just out of curiosity(SUSPICIOUS CURIOSITY!) That's the definition of WIFOM logic. Best not to over think it. As for your suspicions against me because I was against the Midnight vote. I couldn't get a good read on Midnight, and neither can a lot of people. The only people who did have a read on him were reading him as scum. That fact alone is odd and suspicious. I'm not sure Midnight is town, I'm just more comfortable following my own reads then blindly following somebody else's. On February 20 2012 12:08 TKHawkins wrote:
I'm not sold on the logic of the Midnight read, but I'm not going to go after you anymore based on just a bad read.
Track - from 1 question, 1 answer to pro-town + Show Spoiler +On February 18 2012 16:25 TKHawkins wrote:
@Trackdoor, just a question. I seem to recall you being one of the few who didn't want to lynch lurkers. But your analysis seems to be mostly, this guy is posting a lot so he's town. Have you changed your policy on lynching lurkers or is this just your way to make them post? On February 19 2012 01:05 TKHawkins wrote:
@Trackdoor. Alright, I get your explanation on the lurker thing. On February 19 2012 02:45 TKHawkins wrote:
Trackdoor Pressuring lurkers to post. Makes reasonable statements about Ech. Isn't being super aggressive, but rather analytic. Pro-town read.
Looks like I have to address this.
This is the worst oversimplification of my reads imaginable.
On February 19 2012 02:45 TKHawkins wrote:
Zelblade Says Ech is mafia and... that's it? I don't see how he is contributing if he is only going to comment on one or two players. The stuff he says about Ech though is good. Pro-town, but lurking too much.
IF he doesn't comment on/read more then one or two players, then he's not contributing. IF. I'm not saying he's pro town and not contributing, I'm saying he's a pro town and tunneling.
A few posts later I got chewed out and told to stop posting reads unless they are really solid. And so I'm going to keep stuff closer to the vest now.
I've already explained my view on Midnight several times. The scum have us attacking each other on that read.
My read on Track
On February 18 2012 16:25 TKHawkins wrote:
@Trackdoor, just a question. I seem to recall you being one of the few who didn't want to lynch lurkers. But your analysis seems to be mostly, this guy is posting a lot so he's town. Have you changed your policy on lynching lurkers or is this just your way to make them post?
On February 19 2012 01:05 TKHawkins wrote:
@Trackdoor. Alright, I get your explanation on the lurker thing.
On February 19 2012 02:45 TKHawkins wrote:
Trackdoor Pressuring lurkers to post. Makes reasonable statements about Ech. Isn't being super aggressive, but rather analytic. Pro-town read.
has almost nothing to do with that post. My read is based on
+ Show Spoiler +On February 18 2012 01:59 trackd00r wrote:Ok, so I've been reading the thread for a while and taken a look to the filters. @jaj22: Regarding in the comparison of those four players in NMM3, Their metagame has been similar so far, with a very few exceptions: -Sloosh has been very aggressive against EcheleonTea after he made an indirect scum claim (not sure if he was kidding still). The discussion lasted quite a bit with lots of attacks against each other. I'm not missing that attitude from sloosh, but I still expect more from him as town, by pulling off cases and encouraging everyone to participate, opposed to pick off a single target and turning it into a semi-heated talk. Helping us by posting the filters (thanks btw) and giving some general advice is nice to hear, but that fight left me with a little drop of doubt. Anyways, I somewhat understand that he was trying to defend from the first claim and in that case, it's the right thing to do. Looking good. -DoyouHas seems to be pointing the town to the right direction: taking the confidence to be the first to post (BUT last newbie mafia the first poster turned to be scum, with the difference that it was just fluff), gathering information and making his stand clear to everyone. Seems very pro town from me, the same way he did it in NMM3. -MidnightGladius has somewhat posted in the begging of the game. However, he does still have that flaw present in the past game, which is to make useless calculations and proportions about the mafia/town ratio. I feel that doesn't really contributes much to the dialogue. His next post have been better though, analyzing and commenting about the Echelon-sloosh clash and the not that succesful plan of gumshoe. I hope he keeps like that. Important to mention that those 3 players had blue roles in NMM3, so looking through their posts in the next days can make a clearer picture of them and their attitude to everything in general. -Zelbalde has only posted once, giving advice to us and apologizing. This was his biggest flaw last game. We know that you are a busy person zelblade, but posting just once is fine, instead of refilling your posts with more 'sorry' and making you either difficult to read or a scum candidate. Well, that's all regarding the past players, but of course we need to take look to the rest... Gumshoe did not had the best start ever in a mafia game. That first post was just flashy and not very elaborated. As Echelon said, it could be interpreted as an attempt to derail the discussion. This thing drew my attention quite a bit: + Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +On February 17 2012 11:36 EchelonTee wrote:
Show nested quote +
I would like it if you divided your walls of text into paragraphs; it took me a few to fathom your post, when I realized you're not saying anything. K very simple I wanted to see if any voting patterns formed within the poll It was like a lynch simulator But less than 12 people have voted in the pole therefore any conjecture regarding any mafia patterns is at the moment useless. Because it's possible that none of the mafia voted given that town thinks the poll is stupid and just posted on it randomly or trolingly. Discredit it until theres twelve votes or just discredit it period if you so please. That is all. That ridiculously excessive action regarding to divide your text into paragraphs makes you look fell very uncomfortable and desperate to get out of that situation. I'll take your plan as a newbie mistake, but that last post can draw suspicion... In my opinion, we should take a look at Steveling posts: + Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler +On February 17 2012 10:50 gumshoe wrote:
Hi everybody! Im the friendly neighbourhood gum on your shoe! Today I come to you with a plan that'll hopefully shed some light on the certainly vile nature of the scum infesting our sacred house...OF GAMBLING! The plan is a simple anonymous poll asking wether your a townie or a scumie. Now in the case of the townie there is no risk whatsoever in voting townie, on acounta a) you are a townie and b) no one can say otherwise cause your voting anonymously. In fact I very much so ask that you don't say which one your voting for or wether or not your even voting at all. All I ask is that if you're a townie vote townie, or don't vote, please don't troll and say your mafia I REPEAT NO TOWNIES VOTE MAFIA, IT SHALL BE THE END OF US ALL!!!!!! This only works if all the townies voting vote townie so please do so if your a townie. If your mafia feel free to vote as well, in fact the whole purpose of this exercise is to see if you as a group abstain from voting, vote as you please, or all vote townie. This is an experiment to study the mafia and I promise to only do this once, so whata ya say newcomers! Watcha gonna be? I'd just likely to repeat one last time there is ABSOLUTELY no way I or anyone else can ascertain your alignment through this vote, so please give it a shot, it might very well teach us something useful.
Poll: Anonymous vote: are YOU mafia?
Mafioso (16)
80%
Townie (4)
20%
20 total votes
Your vote: Anonymous vote: are YOU mafia?
(Vote): Townie
(Vote): Mafioso
I loled soo hard reading this. As for me, I played one more game of mafia, but it was the biggest fail human kind has ever witnessed. There were 80 players in it, and it ended with the scum offering a draw, cause the city was that bad, T_T. I was a towny needless to say. Here's the link, http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=285690I think I'm with jaj on the lurker lynching. Since unless some serious slips happen it's our best bet for scumhunt. On February 17 2012 11:25 jaj22 wrote: + Show Spoiler +
@Gumshoe: Did you get some RL buddies to spam your own vote, just in case it was accidentally useful?
@Steveling: I see you lynched Palmar on your first day. Not the greatest start to a mafia career. Fortunately we don't have any awesome scumhunting veterans in this game. Or mayors.
Yeah, that was ...unfortunate, Q_Q. But, I did have the best scumreads based on clues in that game. Well that was all I could do so I spent a lot of time into these. Also in my defense all the towny veterans where cockfighting each other so it was impossible for a newbie to tell who was what. On February 17 2012 11:55 gumshoe wrote: Show nested quote + + Show Spoiler +
I apologize as well. This was just a random shot to start off the night, I mean theres really nothing to discuss until something happens and it beats just randomly accusing people, but ill try not to do something like this again... for this game at least!
Just an idea, if you want this to work in future games, I think you need to post a clarifying post before the poll-post, something like a preemptive strike, so you get full cooperation from townies and state the purpose. For example, I voted scum on the poll before I even read it just to troll, T_T. There is barely anything helpful on those posts. Not really contributing . I expect you to post more or my suspicion to you will rise. That's it for the moment. I'll be checking again the thread in a couple of hours. My absence in the past is just sleeping. As may notice, my time is roughly the same as EST, so I'll be up for deadlines and lynches. And sorry for the bad formatting @ spoilers >.< I'll PM a mod later so I get some help lol
and this
+ Show Spoiler +On February 18 2012 06:28 trackd00r wrote:Show nested quote +On February 18 2012 05:20 Steveling wrote:
Ok, just woke up and caught on the action.
So, my view on the whole thing is that we should push for a no lynch day 1.
The reasoning: We are close to the night, very close actually and we have zero solid cases on anyone.
Yes mannerkiss's weird 1 liner is scummy, also both eche and sloosh became defensive too fast and yes there are some lurkers as well. Nothing we can make a strong case on.
But chanses are that we are probably gonna misslynch day1 with the current situation.
So the way I see it, we either push for a lurker lynch or a no lynch. And with a no lynch we promote more discussion without losing an unlucky towny, more discussion always benefits the town.
What do you guys think?
I'm sorry Steveling, but I definitely think that no-lynch is no no. We are not close to night. We've only had played for 21 hours and that's less than half of the time. We still have plenty of time to build a strong case on anyone. There have been several stances where we could gather information and I know that we can use it to push out a lynch. If it turns out mafia, great. If not, we will see the bandwagons and those who are dodging the cases to make a good and hopefully successful lynch in the second day. Well, you have posted much more content than you did it on your previous post, but I insist, I disagree with a no-lynch. Gumshoe, sometimes I think that you are going more pro-town, but in some other instances I just don't understand your intentions. Even you manage to contradict your self: Show nested quote +On February 17 2012 13:36 gumshoe wrote:Early reports! All very preliminary but hopefully it'll give everyone an idea of where some townies stand and where some lurkers don't. blae - absent but has an alibi(by alibi I mean he said before game that he would not be especially present day one) Alderan - Absent no alibi Ech - present but slightly suspicious ) : Do you has - present has contributed somewhat(a single post against the word of Ech) no basis for suspicion manner kiss- has presented himself but has not yet contributed to discussion. No basis for suspicion steveling - is present has contributed to discussion does not seem suspicious.track door - has made himself present has contributed somewhat to discussion no reason yet to suspect midnight- is present has contributed , (is mean to me but rightfully so )  no reason to suspect as of yet Sloosh - has contributed, acted out only to defend himself, does not seem suspicius Janaan- is absent no alibi tk hawakins- is absent no aibi dimmuKlk- is absent no alibi zell - is absent no alibi jaj22 - is present, is also somewhat mean but justifiably so as far as I can tell, his negative tone is striking negative but not yet suspicion worthy. Show nested quote +On February 18 2012 05:09 gumshoe wrote:
Now for stance number two! This ones about the lovely poll!
Unlike the topic of lynching lurkers, nearly everyone( with the exception of manner kiss and a few other lurkers) has stated an opinion on this matter, heres the breakdown of where everyone stands. Fore warning I'm a lot less objective here so take my opinions as you will.
Thinks I'm the nubbiest of noobs:
Blae(not much to say, just seems like he wants to move on from the poll which isn't really what a mafia would want)
Janan (just disregarded my poll and moved on, not very suspicious behaviour)
Steveling( hasn't commented to much, posted rather jokingly in response to my poll... Almost as if he wasn't worried about the prospect of me being mafia... Steve needs to post more.)
Midnight Gladius (didn't think I was mafia, not a suprise gladius dosent seem to take many risks)
TKHawkins( hasn't said much)
With this, I really want to make you think more carefully about you post. You say that Steveling has contributed to the discussion, when he actually didn't really at that point (he even loled at your poll) and then you suddenly realize deeper into the game that he hasn't commented much? I'm letting of the suspicion of you but please, please, think carefully every post you make. Instead of replaying to every post, try to start a case or at least draw your lynch candidates in a clear way. I swear that I can't even understand some of your posts, and not only to me, but all the town right here. For the moment, i'm lifting my suspicions about you and Steve I need to keep checking the filters and try to build up a strong case. There have been a lot of situations going on here and I'm starting to lose focus >_<. Expect more posting from me, I will.
and this
+ Show Spoiler +On February 18 2012 11:39 trackd00r wrote:I can't explain how tiring is to re-read like 5 times every filter. I haven't thought of a good case yet but some posts are revealing alignments and behaviors of each of you. I have no other option that expressing me my reads. Let's start Steveling: For a moment, I thought that you would have a more cooperative attitude towards the thread, but the only post which I've seen of content is this one: Show nested quote +On February 18 2012 05:20 Steveling wrote:
Ok, just woke up and caught on the action.
So, my view on the whole thing is that we should push for a no lynch day 1.
The reasoning: We are close to the night, very close actually and we have zero solid cases on anyone.
Yes mannerkiss's weird 1 liner is scummy, also both eche and sloosh became defensive too fast and yes there are some lurkers as well. Nothing we can make a strong case on.
But chanses are that we are probably gonna misslynch day1 with the current situation.
So the way I see it, we either push for a lurker lynch or a no lynch. And with a no lynch we promote more discussion without losing an unlucky towny, more discussion always benefits the town.
What do you guys think?
After that, you only attacked gumshoe, targeting mannerkiss with no reason whatsoever and post content less posts regarding lynches + random fluff. I'm expecting a lot more of you. You have been reading the thread long enough to build some accusations. EchelonTee: What's with the over aggressive and 'flashy' way of posting? I thought that after your talk vs sl0osh your posting style could have changed, but instead you post short lines which clearly lack a basis. My suspicion towards is raising because we don't need these kind of posting here. It looks like you want to work by your own. I hardly see any attempt of trying to lead the town to a healthy discussion. Instead, you are creating a confusing atmosphere to us. What is your plan? Which are your goals? Your intentions are not very clear... Probably the most confusing thing you did in the whole game is jump to vote at MG just after jaj22 opened a case against him. Show nested quote +On February 18 2012 09:49 EchelonTee wrote:On February 18 2012 09:47 MidnightGladius wrote:On February 18 2012 09:42 MannerKiss wrote:
Sorry i've been absent, work related stuff. Trying to catch up on the thread.
Doyouhas pretty strong townie feeling to me.
gumshoe - trying my best to overcome some scummy feeling from the earliest post, but it seems to have cleared up a little since the poll.
Dimmuklok giving me the strongest scum vibe of all so far, (and not just because he's aggressive toward me).
ET - also giving off a townie feeling
i'll catch up on everyone else when i get home this evening Welcome back! The last we saw you, DYH was your first scumread. Now, he's "pretty strong townie"? He was trolling, most likely. You are not. ##Vote MidnightGladiusmore after these messages! Seriously? No reasoning? Not any argument behind? Please, take a look to his behavior. I find it really scum and definitely NOT pro-town. This also applies to your earlier stand against sl0osh. MidnightGladius: You are in the very edge of what I consider constructive posting and what is just repeating what others said. I look you more to the path of constructiveness, but I'm expecting more about you. Your posting was slightly better in NMM3, although limited still (you were vig that game). Be a little more aggressive, but that's all. DimmuKlok: Please post more. You have only targeted the most obvious players at that moment. Also your 1st and 2nd were very fluffy. If you don't contribute more you will get targeted. Alderan: He looks very town for me at least. You made your stand clear from the start and you are pressuring Dimmu. Looks very neat so far. Mannerkiss: When you get back home, you'd better have good reads/accusations because your absence is really hurting us. Your semi analysis in your last post targets common players as well. I want to see more. jaj22: I don't have a clear picture of you yet You have been replying a fair amount of posts and looking forward information. I wouldn't vote for MG that early though, but it's up to you and we'll see how things come into the light after some hours. blae000: Perhaps you've only have made a few posts, but they are good quality ones. He looks to have good intentions. I would like to read more about him though. TWhawkins This has been his only contribution so far: Show nested quote +On February 17 2012 13:56 TKHawkins wrote:
Welcome.
First game on this forum. Anyway, I don't think Gumshoes poll is scummy. It's more likely he just thought "he I wonder if this idea would work." Clearly the answer is no and he didn't really think it through. Seems like more of newbie attempt at something more then anything else. I'm sure the obsever quick thread is already LOLing hard at us. I laughed too (and didn't vote since I hadn't known the game had started).
As for the policy on Lurker hunting, it's obviously a bit early to call people lurkers since many people might not even know the game has started yet (though definately not too early to discuss how to handle lurkers). It is best not to go after lurkers right away. The mafia generally aren't going to be completely inactive at the start. Rather, they are going to try to blend in. Scum post a reasonable amount, but don't contribute.
And finally, the Sl0osh vs Ech thing, I do think it's suspicious for Sl0osh to be acting defensive already. We need to hear more. Please, don't be shy. Come with some accusations. Your posts somewhat seem to you to look interested, but your post count says to opposite. Janaan: Hard to read. He has good intentions and makes good points, but I still i want to hear more from him. Looking forward to his posts. gumshoe: OK i'll be honest with this one. Many times when I saw his posts, i just the feeling to grab my laptop and smash to the ground. I'm pretty sure that everyone is conscious of this posts and ideas. He has been slowing down the posting for a while and in fact has given good well developed opinions against jaj and somewhat to MG. Anyways, that drama we saw in the first hours didn't really made a good organized discussion later on. I'm glad that your are calming down, gum. DoYouHas Very active, pointing good posts and having a very good analysis in his posts. A very good town read from him. sl0osh Your posts have been more concrete after the clash with ET. You are slowly getting to that style I loved about you back in NMM3. I'm expecting you to build a very good solid case in the future. That would be it. I really want to see EchelonTee with more productive and well developed posts. His individualism in this thread make me feels he has the most scummy behavior. I'll wait to your response before I cast my vote, specially the one regarding the MG jumping.
Those are huge, laborious posts with lots of reads that push discussion early when people were timid and not posting. That's why I thought he was town early on. His absence lately has been unsettling. His early play though screamed town.
|
Wow mattchew, just wow...
Do you honestly think that we could do something so obvious like that? The case you are presenting it's basically we just changed our vote to Dimmu very fast, supported that we all gave soft reads to each other. You don't have any other evidence that prove this fact except our 'light' comunication, which I don't see the point on it. It's my first game and I know that I'm making a lot of mistakes, like flawed cases and inaccurate reads. Just because I didn't get a good read MG before in the game doesn't mean that he is my scum mate. Same applies to Zelblade. I just can't be giving random reads all the time.
About Dimmu, I've already stated why I switched my vote here. If you haven't read it please do it so.
|
First impressions after reading Mattchew's case again:
My big problem with Mattchew's case right now is that he only really addresses connections (or lack of) between the 4 players. This is possibly useful IF you've already flipped at least one or two mafia, but until then, it's all just WIFOM. The case looks like it was originally thought of because these 4 all switched to DimmuKlok, seemingly simultaneously, but I'm just not seeing enough evidence here for ALL of them to be mafia unless the case is followed up with good analysis of each one seperately.
|
On February 21 2012 10:26 trackd00r wrote:
Do you honestly think that we could do something so obvious like that?
who is we? oh right.. you and your scum team... nice slip.
Pressure brings out the best in people
shocking they almost all came to the thread right away
|
On February 21 2012 10:31 Janaan wrote:
First impressions after reading Mattchew's case again:
My big problem with Mattchew's case right now is that he only really addresses connections (or lack of) between the 4 players. This is possibly useful IF you've already flipped at least one or two mafia, but until then, it's all just WIFOM. The case looks like it was originally thought of because these 4 all switched to DimmuKlok, seemingly simultaneously, but I'm just not seeing enough evidence here for ALL of them to be mafia unless the case is followed up with good analysis of each one seperately.
so the soft defenses, soft null - pro-town reads (not just straight town reads) dont scream scum to you? really?
|
On February 20 2012 12:52 Mattchew wrote:Show nested quote +On February 20 2012 12:42 slOosh wrote:
TOWN ARE YOU TRYING TO GO FOR NO LYNCH AGAIN???
We have ONE Lynch. ONE. If you want to FOS someone else you better have a good reason why you aren't voting DYH or Midnight or Echelon or whoever.
We find and lynch mafia ONE AT A TIME.
this. 100x over this
Not reading anything till you explain this.
DYH will be lynched today. Unless anyone has substantial evidence as to why he is town,
HE WILL BE LYNCHED TODAY.
|
On February 21 2012 10:39 slOosh wrote:Show nested quote +On February 20 2012 12:52 Mattchew wrote:On February 20 2012 12:42 slOosh wrote:
TOWN ARE YOU TRYING TO GO FOR NO LYNCH AGAIN???
We have ONE Lynch. ONE. If you want to FOS someone else you better have a good reason why you aren't voting DYH or Midnight or Echelon or whoever.
We find and lynch mafia ONE AT A TIME.
this. 100x over this Not reading anything till you explain this. DYH will be lynched today. Unless anyone has substantial evidence as to why he is town,
HE WILL BE LYNCHED TODAY.
stop tunneling.. please
|
i think i brought substantial evidence that others are more scum
|
On February 21 2012 10:33 Mattchew wrote:
so the soft defenses, soft null - pro-town reads (not just straight town reads) dont scream scum to you? really?
In my mind, they *could* mean scum. That doesn't automatically mean that they do.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
