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On January 10 2012 07:30 Jitsu wrote:Show nested quote +On January 10 2012 06:46 Probulous wrote:How cursed are we? It has been 20 hours since replacement and kronhjort hasn't posted and all that Paperscraps has posted is a couple of welcome lines and "I seem to be leaning a bit toward scum on blurry and xeris (kronhjort). I can't stay up too late tonight due to school in the morning. I plan on providing some analysis and reads tomorrow." @Ceph, I am still waiting on your reads. @Jitsu I am assuming you are sticking with Cats and Blurry? Definitely staying with Cats right now. I think that whole mass-shenanigans at the end of last night was to try to buy Cats some towncred. Sheth telling Cats to just vote switch to him? And Cats apologizing for doing it? Come on guys. Clearly an act. I'm definitely not buying it. After I pressured Sheth, I went back and read the interactions between them. It's just screaming at me. What was he willing to contribute? He was adamant in not voting for Sheth until the very end, when Sheth told him to vote for him in the post. As for Blurry; I don't think so. I've read through his filter again (an astounding one page!!) just now and, while not very enlightening and helpful, hasn't really acted anti-town. I said that post last night because I was under the impression that was just bandwagon lynching, but I think it's just newbie play. That being said - he needs to post. He's still lurking, he's just also voting. Going over filters now. I would like to hear from the new lurkers, especially Hippo's replacement (whoever he is).
On January 10 2012 09:57 Jitsu wrote:
I was actually a little bit curious about Gonz's posts. Check his filter.
I think Jitsu was on to something here. He was adamant that Cats was scum and had changed his position on Blurry. If we assume he was sure Cats was scum and believed Blurry is town that leaves one scum in the following list
- Gonzaw
- AnxiousHippo/Bkrow
- Gretorp/Paper
- Xeris/kronhjort
Here is what he had to say about Xeris and Gretorp
On January 10 2012 07:41 Jitsu wrote:
At this point, I think we can call Xeris/Gretorp new players - the previous lack of effort certainly wasn't able to give me enough information to determine their role, except MAYBE Gretorp.
Maybe.
That being said, I really hope that these guys stop lurking.
A solid null read and his thoughts on Bkrow amounted to
On January 10 2012 07:56 Jitsu wrote:
Bkrow, i'd like to see some posts in you're name. Add to the discussion. What do you think of Cats right now? you must have read the majority of the thread by now. What are some of you're scum reads?
Hardly suspicion. So what does this mean? It means taking a good look at Gonz and Cats.
WIFOM alert, which is more likely?
Scum knew I was iffy about Cats and that Jitsu would be the one pushing his case, so they shot him.
Or
Jitsu had correctly noticed in Gonz's filter and scum quickly shot him to stop suspicion of Gonz?
Or
We have no fucking clue and this is a waste of time?
Bk, you are in that list and have at least been posting so, what do you make of this?
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On January 10 2012 10:09 CatsnHats wrote:Is this the proper time to announce it? I wasn't, but I've already said I don't have a role. I'm starting to think the mafia is afraid that we have a medic though. That's why they went for Tunk and Jitsu and not you Prob, for fear of the medic saving you (our "leader" of sorts).
On January 10 2012 09:56 Probulous wrote:
In fact if I had to guess, it would be either myself or Jitsu. Cephiro has enough of a bad filter to be pushed as a lynch (despite his catching of Sheth), Gonz could also be pushed given his posting habits. So I am going to go out on limb here and say that one of Me or Jitsu will be dead in the next five minutes.
I think you two have good points here. The scums are probably thinking they will be able to convince the other townies that I am the scum, due to my bad filter earlygame.
If there is a medic, I don't think he should claim. If there is a DT, I don't think he should claim either, unless they have at least 1 new mafia. For all we know, we could have one of them, none of them, or both of them (blues). :/
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On January 10 2012 10:23 Probulous wrote:I think Jitsu was on to something here. He was adamant that Cats was scum and had changed his position on Blurry. If we assume he was sure Cats was scum and believed Blurry is town that leaves one scum in the following list - Gonzaw
- AnxiousHippo/Bkrow
- Gretorp/Paper
- Xeris/kronhjort
Here is what he had to say about Xeris and Gretorp Show nested quote +On January 10 2012 07:41 Jitsu wrote:
At this point, I think we can call Xeris/Gretorp new players - the previous lack of effort certainly wasn't able to give me enough information to determine their role, except MAYBE Gretorp.
Maybe.
That being said, I really hope that these guys stop lurking. A solid null read and his thoughts on Bkrow amounted to Show nested quote +On January 10 2012 07:56 Jitsu wrote:
Bkrow, i'd like to see some posts in you're name. Add to the discussion. What do you think of Cats right now? you must have read the majority of the thread by now. What are some of you're scum reads? Hardly suspicion. So what does this mean? It means taking a good look at Gonz and Cats. WIFOM alert, which is more likely? Scum knew I was iffy about Cats and that Jitsu would be the one pushing his case, so they shot him.
Or
Jitsu had correctly noticed in Gonz's filter and scum quickly shot him to stop suspicion of Gonz?Or We have no fucking clue and this is a waste of time? Bk, you are in that list and have at least been posting so, what do you make of this?
Do you think it could be possible that BOTH statements would be true? As in the last two scum would be Cats & Gonzaw? I haven't read through Gonzaw's filter yet, but I will check it and post my opinion in the morning. (3:30 AM, gonna sleep now.)
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On January 10 2012 10:09 CatsnHats wrote:Is this the proper time to announce it? I wasn't, but I've already said I don't have a role. I'm starting to think the mafia is afraid that we have a medic though. That's why they went for Tunk and Jitsu and not you Prob, for fear of the medic saving you (our "leader" of sorts).
Re: Roleblock
I am going to assume that no-one has been roleblocked for the past two nights. Why? Well we are in one of the following situations
- There is no roleblocker
- Scum chose not to roleblock
WIFOM, I know but I think it is much more likely that scum would use everything in their power to deny us information. Given we have two nights with no roleblock and we have lynched a scum I think there is no roleblocker in this setup.
That gives one of three situations
- There are no power roles in this game
- There is a medic but no DT
- There is a DT but no medic
I just wanted to be sure that my assumptions were correct, hence the question regarding roleblock.
THERE IS NO REASON FOR A BLUE, IF WE HAVE ONE, TO CLAIM.
DO NOT CLAIM
For those unaware, I believe you are told whether you have been roleblocked regardless of whether you have a role or not.
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Fuck yeah we got scum!
Okay people, I'm back but only for 1 hour or less..
I'll try to reread everything that went on as fast as I can...
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On January 10 2012 10:30 Cephiro wrote:Show nested quote +On January 10 2012 10:23 Probulous wrote:I think Jitsu was on to something here. He was adamant that Cats was scum and had changed his position on Blurry. If we assume he was sure Cats was scum and believed Blurry is town that leaves one scum in the following list - Gonzaw
- AnxiousHippo/Bkrow
- Gretorp/Paper
- Xeris/kronhjort
Here is what he had to say about Xeris and Gretorp On January 10 2012 07:41 Jitsu wrote:
At this point, I think we can call Xeris/Gretorp new players - the previous lack of effort certainly wasn't able to give me enough information to determine their role, except MAYBE Gretorp.
Maybe.
That being said, I really hope that these guys stop lurking. A solid null read and his thoughts on Bkrow amounted to On January 10 2012 07:56 Jitsu wrote:
Bkrow, i'd like to see some posts in you're name. Add to the discussion. What do you think of Cats right now? you must have read the majority of the thread by now. What are some of you're scum reads? Hardly suspicion. So what does this mean? It means taking a good look at Gonz and Cats. WIFOM alert, which is more likely? Scum knew I was iffy about Cats and that Jitsu would be the one pushing his case, so they shot him.
Or
Jitsu had correctly noticed in Gonz's filter and scum quickly shot him to stop suspicion of Gonz?Or We have no fucking clue and this is a waste of time? Bk, you are in that list and have at least been posting so, what do you make of this? Do you think it could be possible that BOTH statements would be true? As in the last two scum would be Cats & Gonzaw? I haven't read through Gonzaw's filter yet, but I will check it and post my opinion in the morning. (3:30 AM, gonna sleep now.)
I do, hence " It means taking a good look at Gonz and Cats. " But either way we have to decide on a single lynch, which for me is deciding between these two scenarios.
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Re-reading the filter of Cats and Jitsu. Jitsu being confirmed townie leads me to Cats being scum. Cats wishy-washy garbage and acting with Sheth saved him for one more day, but Jitsu's death has saved the town I think.
I am still leaning toward scum on Blurry as well.
We should deal with Cats first though and do Jitsu some justice.
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+ Show Spoiler +On January 10 2012 10:33 Probulous wrote:Show nested quote +On January 10 2012 10:30 Cephiro wrote:On January 10 2012 10:23 Probulous wrote:I think Jitsu was on to something here. He was adamant that Cats was scum and had changed his position on Blurry. If we assume he was sure Cats was scum and believed Blurry is town that leaves one scum in the following list - Gonzaw
- AnxiousHippo/Bkrow
- Gretorp/Paper
- Xeris/kronhjort
Here is what he had to say about Xeris and Gretorp On January 10 2012 07:41 Jitsu wrote:
At this point, I think we can call Xeris/Gretorp new players - the previous lack of effort certainly wasn't able to give me enough information to determine their role, except MAYBE Gretorp.
Maybe.
That being said, I really hope that these guys stop lurking. A solid null read and his thoughts on Bkrow amounted to On January 10 2012 07:56 Jitsu wrote:
Bkrow, i'd like to see some posts in you're name. Add to the discussion. What do you think of Cats right now? you must have read the majority of the thread by now. What are some of you're scum reads? Hardly suspicion. So what does this mean? It means taking a good look at Gonz and Cats. WIFOM alert, which is more likely? Scum knew I was iffy about Cats and that Jitsu would be the one pushing his case, so they shot him.
Or
Jitsu had correctly noticed in Gonz's filter and scum quickly shot him to stop suspicion of Gonz?Or We have no fucking clue and this is a waste of time? Bk, you are in that list and have at least been posting so, what do you make of this? Do you think it could be possible that BOTH statements would be true? As in the last two scum would be Cats & Gonzaw? I haven't read through Gonzaw's filter yet, but I will check it and post my opinion in the morning. (3:30 AM, gonna sleep now.) I do, hence " It means taking a good look at Gonz and Cats. " But either way we have to decide on a single lynch, which for me is deciding between these two scenarios.
@Prob: I am leaning toward your first option of scum silencing Jitsu, because of his suspicion of Cats.
I still don't have a clear read on Gonz.
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On January 10 2012 10:19 Paperscraps wrote:
Blurry doesn't agree to vote up Sheth until you ask him if he will. All his posts previous to that have no read on Sheth or say he he may be slightly town. I guess you are right that it is stupid to jump from Cats to Sheth, but you, one of the best readers in this game, think he is town now. Maybe that is what he wanted to happen. I still think he is scummy.
Yes, Blurry votes when I ask him to, with no hesitation at all. He could have simply stuck with his read that Cats was scum until it became obvious Sheth was being lynched. I don't think he is clearly town, just more town than Cats. It is possible that he is mafia but if so that is one hell of a bus. If I recall correctly he was the second person to vote for Sheth. Remember I had pushed Cephiro's case day 1 and failed, why would he assume I would succeed day 2? As mafia, it would have been a much safer play to just wait it out. See if the wagon starts to pick gain even a single vote and then jump.
In addition to all this he was one of a handful of people who pointed out Sheth's mistakes in the very early game. Why do this if you are mafia? He plan has been to lurk, calling out your buddies is not lurking. Sure he didn't push the case hard but he definitely made one. We have very little to work on with Blurry but what we have seems more likely to be town than mafia. Either he is one hell of a mafia player, subtly bussing his team mate to gain town credit despite lurking, or he is simply a town lurker.
Prob: What is your read on Cats right now? Who are you thinking are scummy?
See above. Given Jitsu's suspicions I would place Cats as scum. It fits with his back and forth with Sheth. Sheth called him out on a simple mistake (wishy-washy)and instead of changing his play like a townie would, he kept going. Sheth than backed off when he realised he was casting geniune suspicion on his team-mate. He only voted for Sheth after Sheth told him to and has been all round terrible. His "leaving" post caused confusion and he claims it was a gambit. In general he has been nuisance to town so I would not be sad to see him leave.
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+ Show Spoiler +On January 10 2012 10:54 Probulous wrote:Show nested quote +On January 10 2012 10:19 Paperscraps wrote:
Blurry doesn't agree to vote up Sheth until you ask him if he will. All his posts previous to that have no read on Sheth or say he he may be slightly town. I guess you are right that it is stupid to jump from Cats to Sheth, but you, one of the best readers in this game, think he is town now. Maybe that is what he wanted to happen. I still think he is scummy. Yes, Blurry votes when I ask him to, with no hesitation at all. He could have simply stuck with his read that Cats was scum until it became obvious Sheth was being lynched. I don't think he is clearly town, just more town than Cats. It is possible that he is mafia but if so that is one hell of a bus. If I recall correctly he was the second person to vote for Sheth. Remember I had pushed Cephiro's case day 1 and failed, why would he assume I would succeed day 2? As mafia, it would have been a much safer play to just wait it out. See if the wagon starts to pick gain even a single vote and then jump. In addition to all this he was one of a handful of people who pointed out Sheth's mistakes in the very early game. Why do this if you are mafia? He plan has been to lurk, calling out your buddies is not lurking. Sure he didn't push the case hard but he definitely made one. We have very little to work on with Blurry but what we have seems more likely to be town than mafia. Either he is one hell of a mafia player, subtly bussing his team mate to gain town credit despite lurking, or he is simply a town lurker. See above. Given Jitsu's suspicions I would place Cats as scum. It fits with his back and forth with Sheth. Sheth called him out on a simple mistake (wishy-washy)and instead of changing his play like a townie would, he kept going. Sheth than backed off when he realised he was casting geniune suspicion on his team-mate. He only voted for Sheth after Sheth told him to and has been all round terrible. His "leaving" post caused confusion and he claims it was a gambit. In general he has been nuisance to town so I would not be sad to see him leave.
@Prob: Yeah I can agree with all of this. Right now Cats>Blurry, due to the death of Jitsu and re-reading the filters of Jitsu, Cats and Sheth.
I'll be back in about 6 hours to see where this goes and see what people's defenses are going to be.
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FUUUUUUUUUU...
Sorry guys, I don't have time, I'm almost on the hour mark and I've barely even finished reading the thread.
I'll respond as I see fit though.
Also, tomorrow I'll be back earlier (I'll go to the same cyber, for more time if I can), so I'll address everything else there.
+ Show Spoiler +On January 10 2012 10:23 Probulous wrote:Show nested quote +On January 10 2012 07:30 Jitsu wrote:On January 10 2012 06:46 Probulous wrote:How cursed are we? It has been 20 hours since replacement and kronhjort hasn't posted and all that Paperscraps has posted is a couple of welcome lines and "I seem to be leaning a bit toward scum on blurry and xeris (kronhjort). I can't stay up too late tonight due to school in the morning. I plan on providing some analysis and reads tomorrow." @Ceph, I am still waiting on your reads. @Jitsu I am assuming you are sticking with Cats and Blurry? Definitely staying with Cats right now. I think that whole mass-shenanigans at the end of last night was to try to buy Cats some towncred. Sheth telling Cats to just vote switch to him? And Cats apologizing for doing it? Come on guys. Clearly an act. I'm definitely not buying it. After I pressured Sheth, I went back and read the interactions between them. It's just screaming at me. What was he willing to contribute? He was adamant in not voting for Sheth until the very end, when Sheth told him to vote for him in the post. As for Blurry; I don't think so. I've read through his filter again (an astounding one page!!) just now and, while not very enlightening and helpful, hasn't really acted anti-town. I said that post last night because I was under the impression that was just bandwagon lynching, but I think it's just newbie play. That being said - he needs to post. He's still lurking, he's just also voting. Going over filters now. I would like to hear from the new lurkers, especially Hippo's replacement (whoever he is). Show nested quote +On January 10 2012 09:57 Jitsu wrote:
I was actually a little bit curious about Gonz's posts. Check his filter. I think Jitsu was on to something here. He was adamant that Cats was scum and had changed his position on Blurry. If we assume he was sure Cats was scum and believed Blurry is town that leaves one scum in the following list - Gonzaw
- AnxiousHippo/Bkrow
- Gretorp/Paper
- Xeris/kronhjort
Here is what he had to say about Xeris and Gretorp Show nested quote +On January 10 2012 07:41 Jitsu wrote:
At this point, I think we can call Xeris/Gretorp new players - the previous lack of effort certainly wasn't able to give me enough information to determine their role, except MAYBE Gretorp.
Maybe.
That being said, I really hope that these guys stop lurking. A solid null read and his thoughts on Bkrow amounted to Show nested quote +On January 10 2012 07:56 Jitsu wrote:
Bkrow, i'd like to see some posts in you're name. Add to the discussion. What do you think of Cats right now? you must have read the majority of the thread by now. What are some of you're scum reads? Hardly suspicion. So what does this mean? It means taking a good look at Gonz and Cats. WIFOM alert, which is more likely? Scum knew I was iffy about Cats and that Jitsu would be the one pushing his case, so they shot him. Or Jitsu had correctly noticed in Gonz's filter and scum quickly shot him to stop suspicion of Gonz? Or We have no fucking clue and this is a waste of time? Bk, you are in that list and have at least been posting so, what do you make of this?
...WTF is this WIFOM shit?
Yes that's a waste of time unless you are backing it up with analysis.
And now I was suspicious for wanting to take the WIFOM out of the way early so it doesn't clog up the thread later, sheez...
+ Show Spoiler +On January 08 2012 11:58 CatsnHats wrote:@Sheth you're exactly right. I'm ghosting on Prob's analysis of you. Gonzaw ghosted on it too and has already put a placeholder vote on you. I REALLY don't like that. He says that your words in your defense could have an effect on changing his mind, but that he won't be around to see it. WHAT IS THAT? This is a really important time in this game. We really need a lynch on mafia. That doesn't sit well with me.
What about the "I'm going away from town" did you not get?
Unexpected things IRL happen, I can't choose not to do them.
I will come back tomorrow at around 6pm GMT or something, and around 1am GMT of the next day I'll be home so I can pay full attention to this game again.
+ Show Spoiler +On January 09 2012 08:48 Cephiro wrote:Show nested quote +On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote:
I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things.
Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way.
My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum. I am yet not sure what to think of you, but at least you are right in one thing whether you are a townie, or mafia trying to gain town-cred. Show nested quote +On January 07 2012 21:11 Probulous wrote:
The only issue I had post his defense was his vote reason (a placeholder vote). He could have voted for one of his scum-reads but he chose to follow the crowd. This keeps him on my watch list.
As for Sheth, I am almost certain he is scum. I have read and re-read the thread over and over and there are some things I cannot reconcile. His insistent early support for Xeris over Gretorp being the first that springs to mind. I am putting together my case on him but want people to take a good look and tell me why he isn't mafia.
Full case coming soonish! I'll admit I maybe should have done that, but I didn't want to give the mafia a chance to no-lynch, nor give someone the impression that I was trying to jack the vote towards a no-lynch (pro-mafia play). But today, we lynch scum. Because we're going to lynch Sheth. Once I read the bolded, I knew we were going in the right direction today. Finally more people would realize the killer that hided behind the manner. And once I saw Probu's case of the D2 on Sheth, especially considering he is probably the strongest town read for many. (Which no-one should take for granted!), I got the feeling that today is the day the first scum falls. Show nested quote +On January 08 2012 10:31 gonzaw wrote:
??
I had a null read on him until you posted your case, in which case I now have a scum read on him.
You posted your case on him after you posed that question, so my answer was about what I thought of him at that point in time.
I don't get how that could be misinterpreted.
And yes, Sheth hasn't really been accused until now, his response can make us change our minds or make us more assured if he's scum. And I think we can notice if he's trying to "cast doubt" on what you've written.
However I won't be around to see it.
I'm going out now, and tomorrow as soon as I wake up I'll be going out of town for like 1-2 days, so I won't be around until that time.
I hope I get back before it's too late on Day 3 though.
So fuck Sheth, I was waiting for his response, but I need to make a placeholder vote, and the case against him is the best we have at the moment IMO, considering Blurry is ignoring me and Xeris just disappeared off the face of the Earth.
##Vote: Liquid`Sheth This is a very weird post for me. You have been trying so hard to provide content and analysis yourself earlier, but now you went from a null read to scum read just because of Probu's post? I admit that Probu posts good and convincing cases, but please people, think for yourselves too! If he's the one controlling the game with his analysis with everyone just jumping on the bandwagon, in the case he is mafia we're fucked. I am not saying he is, I got a town-read on him myself at the moment, but don't take it for granted! Anyway, this post made me more curious, I will have to read through gonzaw's filter again soon. Show nested quote +Liquid`Sheth wrote:
You keep him in your scum list, but you don't keep pressuring him. You just act meaner to a guy who is acting newb. This is the sort of non-stop pressure that almost caused him to try and "lynch" himself. I still don't think Cats is mafia based on his posts and what not. However I obviously want to keep pressure on him. Thats what I've been saying this whole time, but now I'm stuck responding to these posts. From your response to Probu's analysis about you. We're not acting extra-mean to anyone. Could you provide some back-up for your claims of Cats being townie? All you say is the bolded, which is basically nothing. His posts and what not? But you obviously want to keep pressure on him, when you just said that sort of non-stop pressure almost made a townie suicide? Contradictory. Protection of scumbuddy, failed. Show nested quote +Liquid`Sheth wrote:
This is horrible logic. Your logic has just been way off recently. Xeris' post just seemed townie at the time. Gretorps did as well, and I've explained about Xeris too much. And if you'd known Xeris in RL you'd understand. I really wish Gretorp would come on and explain this sometime, but sense hes apparently always afk your just bringing up a point I can't verify. I don't like how your taking something that I can bring to town (my knowledge of both of them in Real life) and trying to point it out as invalid. You think my one post of defending Xeris makes him mafia if I am? You've just created a lot of text here again, that doesn't say anything.
+
Yes its different, but all knowledge should be used? Again, why would you not want me to bring these things up? If you've known someone for 10 years both ONLINE AND OFFLINE, HOW IN THE WORLD would I not have a good read on them. No matter how well you know them, I doubt you can know if they are mafia or town by 3-4 pretty much oneliner posts about promising more. Or then you're one heck of a mindreader. I still don't get why you are protecting them so hard. Admittingly it's impossible to make a case on them on anything else than lurking, and if they are townies then they are making the game considerably harder for us :/ Hopefully we'll get replacements soon. Show nested quote +Liquid`Sheth wrote:
In a lot of the games I've played previously a DT for a mafia is a good trade. I think its a good trade here as well if they have a few people who are confirmed townies. You suggest here that DT can find mafia on his own then post his reads just like the rest of us. If the DT has 2 mafia he should for sure just come out and say it I think. So more just wrong information... A DT for a mafia is a good trade? Certainly not this early in the game. How can you be sure someone is DT if another person would counterclaim? You were fishing for blue roles earlier, are you afraid of the chance a medic could block your night-kills? Show nested quote +On January 08 2012 11:23 CatsnHats wrote:
Cephiro really impressed me with the way he defended himself against your analysis. His statistics post people got angry at him for isn't really that big of a deal for me since it was his first post and it's his first game of forum mafia. Ceph was also the first the post a write-up on all the town, although you picked it apart later. I still think that counts for something. He called out Sheth in his defense post for Sheth's wishy washy play, and later pressured me on my terrible play up to that point. His analysis was the reason I made the martyr post. There was no real way for me to defend my play up to the point, and seeing it written up that way I knew I was distracting from catching scum. His analysis is very good, and I hope he gets back from his sports tournament soon because he's an asset to this town. Cephiro is definitely a town read for me.
Sheth endeared himself in my eyes for defending my newb-play in the beginning, and even after my martyr post he still had a town read for me. I'm starting to think that's because he KNOWS I'm town though. Prob's and Jitsu's analysis has definitely cast a black cloud on the nicest guy in esports. He has ghosted on Prob's analysis of Cephiro, basically promising analysis in the morning on someone's that bothered him. Prob posts his Ceph analysis, and then Sheth's like "oh yeah we was mine too." Just seems like he was waiting for someone to post original content so he can ghost it. And the way he has handled the Xeris situation is shady as well.
Sheth is our best case so far, but I'm really holding out hope (albeit a faint one) that Xeris, Gretorp, or AH will talk before the lynch. I will at least do this:
##Unvote: CatsnHats
I'm not going anywhere unless the town or mafia decides it.
At this point you seem fairly suspicious of Sheth. Why do you suddenly find him so town? You keep changing your minds on everyone, I just don't understand what the hell is going on in your head. Either you are the most confused player ever, or then you're clever mafia trying to get back in by confusing everyone and trying to get on the right bandwagons in time. I suspect the latter. Show nested quote +On January 08 2012 11:58 CatsnHats wrote:@Prob yeah I do think they are (Blurry too) better scum targets than Sheth. I think we are letting the terrible activity level of half this town make us point the finger at each other. @Sheth you're exactly right. I'm ghosting on Prob's analysis of you. Gonzaw ghosted on it too and has already put a placeholder vote on you. I REALLY don't like that. He says that your words in your defense could have an effect on changing his mind, but that he won't be around to see it. WHAT IS THAT? This is a really important time in this game. We really need a lynch on mafia. That doesn't sit well with me. On January 05 2012 12:57 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
Also, your crazy to not think that there is no relation between who you analyse and find scummy and whether or not you are scum. If the person we follow along with the most picks 3 town in a row, theres a solid chance hes mafia. If the person we follow kills 3 mafia in a row, theres a solid chance hes town. I don't know how you can't agree with that.
@Everyone The phrase I bolded is really interesting to me. It seems like the town (including myself) has followed Probulous without much question. He has posted so much many long posts so often that we have written him off as town without thought and reanalysis. Do you think that Probulous is getting by without enough criticism? He's not a D2 lynch target by any means, but do you think that is true? This is NOT FOS, I'm just asking a question. The lurkers are better targets in your opinion. I admit it's certainly not pro-town play, but considering they are about to get modkilled or replaced, why would you not try to pick out the active scum? Even if they both would be mafia (Which I find very unlikely, and quite sure that's not the case), there would be still one scum remaining among the active players. Go and find that one! Then you talk about how people ghost Probu's analysis, even YOURSELF. But then you are getting suspicious on Gonzaw for doing the same. Do you have enough fingers to point in all those directions? I sure don't. Then you are "not suspecting Probu", but curious about if people are letting him by too easily. Sure, you can ask about it from others, but make a case on it yourself if you think that's what happening. I've seen at least me and Sheth critizise his analysis (admittingly, we were the ones being accused). Show nested quote +On January 08 2012 12:44 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
I've been too distracted by all of this pressure on me that I havn't done another full write up on Cephiro. That's no excuse, even to this point I haven't seen but smaller analysis from you, not a single "full write-up". Too distracted by all the pressure on you? That sure didn't prevent me from trying to catch scum when I was under pressure, even though admittingly delaying it a bit. Post 3. More coming up.
For fucks sake.
I'm away, I HAD to make a placeholder vote, what the fuck do you want me to do?
I can't fucking believe I'm "suspicious" or something because of some shitty WIFOM from Jitsu's death and because I went inactive.
IF YOU WANT TO MAKE A CASE AGAINST ME READ MY FILTER AND DO IT GODDAMMIT!!!!!
I won't stand for this WIFOM shit, not at this point of the game.
+ Show Spoiler +On January 08 2012 22:40 Blurry wrote:Show nested quote +On January 08 2012 10:21 Probulous wrote:On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote:
I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things.
Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way.
My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum. Terrible post, Gonz is right this tells us nothing at all. However you at least posted your thoughts on Sheth (Cats I'm looking at you). So to make it easy Blurry, would you vote to lynch Sheth? If not why not? Yes I would, and will. #Vote: Liquid'Sheth As to gonzaw's statement of me simply regurgitating information. For the most part that has been true but I've been going by my gut, which is not something you can post when convincing other people to take your side. I've been suspicious of Sheth from the start but don't have the analysis skills to back it up (I know that will read as scummy but bear with me) and write an informed post as to why. If I don't have the evidence to back up my feelings then there is no point in posting it.
Wtf is this?
So you won't even attempt to respond to my posts?
You say you are going by "your gut"?
Wtf?
Also, I'll reread that "I've been suspicious of Sheth from the start" thing tomorrow when I check everybody's filter.
I'll check the Cat situation too.
Also, (maybe I'm late to this but whatever) everybody saying Blurry is town because he bussed Sheth "too early" or something is a fucking useless WIFOMist.
Sheth's flip doesn't mean Blurry is town, doesn't mean I'm town, and doesn't mean Prob is town.
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Grey, it has been 25hrs since kronhjort replaced Xeris and he hasn't posted. Can we get someone else, or have him mod-killed? That role seems cursed 
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I don't make replacements after day2. Any action I choose to take has to wait until the end of the deadline.
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On January 10 2012 11:36 gonzaw wrote:FUUUUUUUUUU... Sorry guys, I don't have time, I'm almost on the hour mark and I've barely even finished reading the thread. I'll respond as I see fit though. Also, tomorrow I'll be back earlier (I'll go to the same cyber, for more time if I can), so I'll address everything else there. + Show Spoiler +On January 10 2012 10:23 Probulous wrote:Show nested quote +On January 10 2012 07:30 Jitsu wrote:On January 10 2012 06:46 Probulous wrote:How cursed are we? It has been 20 hours since replacement and kronhjort hasn't posted and all that Paperscraps has posted is a couple of welcome lines and "I seem to be leaning a bit toward scum on blurry and xeris (kronhjort). I can't stay up too late tonight due to school in the morning. I plan on providing some analysis and reads tomorrow." @Ceph, I am still waiting on your reads. @Jitsu I am assuming you are sticking with Cats and Blurry? Definitely staying with Cats right now. I think that whole mass-shenanigans at the end of last night was to try to buy Cats some towncred. Sheth telling Cats to just vote switch to him? And Cats apologizing for doing it? Come on guys. Clearly an act. I'm definitely not buying it. After I pressured Sheth, I went back and read the interactions between them. It's just screaming at me. What was he willing to contribute? He was adamant in not voting for Sheth until the very end, when Sheth told him to vote for him in the post. As for Blurry; I don't think so. I've read through his filter again (an astounding one page!!) just now and, while not very enlightening and helpful, hasn't really acted anti-town. I said that post last night because I was under the impression that was just bandwagon lynching, but I think it's just newbie play. That being said - he needs to post. He's still lurking, he's just also voting. Going over filters now. I would like to hear from the new lurkers, especially Hippo's replacement (whoever he is). Show nested quote +On January 10 2012 09:57 Jitsu wrote:
I was actually a little bit curious about Gonz's posts. Check his filter. I think Jitsu was on to something here. He was adamant that Cats was scum and had changed his position on Blurry. If we assume he was sure Cats was scum and believed Blurry is town that leaves one scum in the following list - Gonzaw
- AnxiousHippo/Bkrow
- Gretorp/Paper
- Xeris/kronhjort
Here is what he had to say about Xeris and Gretorp Show nested quote +On January 10 2012 07:41 Jitsu wrote:
At this point, I think we can call Xeris/Gretorp new players - the previous lack of effort certainly wasn't able to give me enough information to determine their role, except MAYBE Gretorp.
Maybe.
That being said, I really hope that these guys stop lurking. A solid null read and his thoughts on Bkrow amounted to Show nested quote +On January 10 2012 07:56 Jitsu wrote:
Bkrow, i'd like to see some posts in you're name. Add to the discussion. What do you think of Cats right now? you must have read the majority of the thread by now. What are some of you're scum reads? Hardly suspicion. So what does this mean? It means taking a good look at Gonz and Cats. WIFOM alert, which is more likely? Scum knew I was iffy about Cats and that Jitsu would be the one pushing his case, so they shot him. Or Jitsu had correctly noticed in Gonz's filter and scum quickly shot him to stop suspicion of Gonz? Or We have no fucking clue and this is a waste of time? Bk, you are in that list and have at least been posting so, what do you make of this? ...WTF is this WIFOM shit? Yes that's a waste of time unless you are backing it up with analysis. And now I was suspicious for wanting to take the WIFOM out of the way early so it doesn't clog up the thread later, sheez... + Show Spoiler +On January 08 2012 11:58 CatsnHats wrote:@Sheth you're exactly right. I'm ghosting on Prob's analysis of you. Gonzaw ghosted on it too and has already put a placeholder vote on you. I REALLY don't like that. He says that your words in your defense could have an effect on changing his mind, but that he won't be around to see it. WHAT IS THAT? This is a really important time in this game. We really need a lynch on mafia. That doesn't sit well with me. What about the "I'm going away from town" did you not get? Unexpected things IRL happen, I can't choose not to do them. I will come back tomorrow at around 6pm GMT or something, and around 1am GMT of the next day I'll be home so I can pay full attention to this game again. + Show Spoiler +On January 09 2012 08:48 Cephiro wrote:Show nested quote +On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote:
I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things.
Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way.
My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum. I am yet not sure what to think of you, but at least you are right in one thing whether you are a townie, or mafia trying to gain town-cred. Show nested quote +On January 07 2012 21:11 Probulous wrote:
The only issue I had post his defense was his vote reason (a placeholder vote). He could have voted for one of his scum-reads but he chose to follow the crowd. This keeps him on my watch list.
As for Sheth, I am almost certain he is scum. I have read and re-read the thread over and over and there are some things I cannot reconcile. His insistent early support for Xeris over Gretorp being the first that springs to mind. I am putting together my case on him but want people to take a good look and tell me why he isn't mafia.
Full case coming soonish! I'll admit I maybe should have done that, but I didn't want to give the mafia a chance to no-lynch, nor give someone the impression that I was trying to jack the vote towards a no-lynch (pro-mafia play). But today, we lynch scum. Because we're going to lynch Sheth. Once I read the bolded, I knew we were going in the right direction today. Finally more people would realize the killer that hided behind the manner. And once I saw Probu's case of the D2 on Sheth, especially considering he is probably the strongest town read for many. (Which no-one should take for granted!), I got the feeling that today is the day the first scum falls. Show nested quote +On January 08 2012 10:31 gonzaw wrote:
??
I had a null read on him until you posted your case, in which case I now have a scum read on him.
You posted your case on him after you posed that question, so my answer was about what I thought of him at that point in time.
I don't get how that could be misinterpreted.
And yes, Sheth hasn't really been accused until now, his response can make us change our minds or make us more assured if he's scum. And I think we can notice if he's trying to "cast doubt" on what you've written.
However I won't be around to see it.
I'm going out now, and tomorrow as soon as I wake up I'll be going out of town for like 1-2 days, so I won't be around until that time.
I hope I get back before it's too late on Day 3 though.
So fuck Sheth, I was waiting for his response, but I need to make a placeholder vote, and the case against him is the best we have at the moment IMO, considering Blurry is ignoring me and Xeris just disappeared off the face of the Earth.
##Vote: Liquid`Sheth This is a very weird post for me. You have been trying so hard to provide content and analysis yourself earlier, but now you went from a null read to scum read just because of Probu's post? I admit that Probu posts good and convincing cases, but please people, think for yourselves too! If he's the one controlling the game with his analysis with everyone just jumping on the bandwagon, in the case he is mafia we're fucked. I am not saying he is, I got a town-read on him myself at the moment, but don't take it for granted! Anyway, this post made me more curious, I will have to read through gonzaw's filter again soon. Show nested quote +Liquid`Sheth wrote:
You keep him in your scum list, but you don't keep pressuring him. You just act meaner to a guy who is acting newb. This is the sort of non-stop pressure that almost caused him to try and "lynch" himself. I still don't think Cats is mafia based on his posts and what not. However I obviously want to keep pressure on him. Thats what I've been saying this whole time, but now I'm stuck responding to these posts. From your response to Probu's analysis about you. We're not acting extra-mean to anyone. Could you provide some back-up for your claims of Cats being townie? All you say is the bolded, which is basically nothing. His posts and what not? But you obviously want to keep pressure on him, when you just said that sort of non-stop pressure almost made a townie suicide? Contradictory. Protection of scumbuddy, failed. Show nested quote +Liquid`Sheth wrote:
This is horrible logic. Your logic has just been way off recently. Xeris' post just seemed townie at the time. Gretorps did as well, and I've explained about Xeris too much. And if you'd known Xeris in RL you'd understand. I really wish Gretorp would come on and explain this sometime, but sense hes apparently always afk your just bringing up a point I can't verify. I don't like how your taking something that I can bring to town (my knowledge of both of them in Real life) and trying to point it out as invalid. You think my one post of defending Xeris makes him mafia if I am? You've just created a lot of text here again, that doesn't say anything.
+
Yes its different, but all knowledge should be used? Again, why would you not want me to bring these things up? If you've known someone for 10 years both ONLINE AND OFFLINE, HOW IN THE WORLD would I not have a good read on them. No matter how well you know them, I doubt you can know if they are mafia or town by 3-4 pretty much oneliner posts about promising more. Or then you're one heck of a mindreader. I still don't get why you are protecting them so hard. Admittingly it's impossible to make a case on them on anything else than lurking, and if they are townies then they are making the game considerably harder for us :/ Hopefully we'll get replacements soon. Show nested quote +Liquid`Sheth wrote:
In a lot of the games I've played previously a DT for a mafia is a good trade. I think its a good trade here as well if they have a few people who are confirmed townies. You suggest here that DT can find mafia on his own then post his reads just like the rest of us. If the DT has 2 mafia he should for sure just come out and say it I think. So more just wrong information... A DT for a mafia is a good trade? Certainly not this early in the game. How can you be sure someone is DT if another person would counterclaim? You were fishing for blue roles earlier, are you afraid of the chance a medic could block your night-kills? Show nested quote +On January 08 2012 11:23 CatsnHats wrote:
Cephiro really impressed me with the way he defended himself against your analysis. His statistics post people got angry at him for isn't really that big of a deal for me since it was his first post and it's his first game of forum mafia. Ceph was also the first the post a write-up on all the town, although you picked it apart later. I still think that counts for something. He called out Sheth in his defense post for Sheth's wishy washy play, and later pressured me on my terrible play up to that point. His analysis was the reason I made the martyr post. There was no real way for me to defend my play up to the point, and seeing it written up that way I knew I was distracting from catching scum. His analysis is very good, and I hope he gets back from his sports tournament soon because he's an asset to this town. Cephiro is definitely a town read for me.
Sheth endeared himself in my eyes for defending my newb-play in the beginning, and even after my martyr post he still had a town read for me. I'm starting to think that's because he KNOWS I'm town though. Prob's and Jitsu's analysis has definitely cast a black cloud on the nicest guy in esports. He has ghosted on Prob's analysis of Cephiro, basically promising analysis in the morning on someone's that bothered him. Prob posts his Ceph analysis, and then Sheth's like "oh yeah we was mine too." Just seems like he was waiting for someone to post original content so he can ghost it. And the way he has handled the Xeris situation is shady as well.
Sheth is our best case so far, but I'm really holding out hope (albeit a faint one) that Xeris, Gretorp, or AH will talk before the lynch. I will at least do this:
##Unvote: CatsnHats
I'm not going anywhere unless the town or mafia decides it.
At this point you seem fairly suspicious of Sheth. Why do you suddenly find him so town? You keep changing your minds on everyone, I just don't understand what the hell is going on in your head. Either you are the most confused player ever, or then you're clever mafia trying to get back in by confusing everyone and trying to get on the right bandwagons in time. I suspect the latter. Show nested quote +On January 08 2012 11:58 CatsnHats wrote:@Prob yeah I do think they are (Blurry too) better scum targets than Sheth. I think we are letting the terrible activity level of half this town make us point the finger at each other. @Sheth you're exactly right. I'm ghosting on Prob's analysis of you. Gonzaw ghosted on it too and has already put a placeholder vote on you. I REALLY don't like that. He says that your words in your defense could have an effect on changing his mind, but that he won't be around to see it. WHAT IS THAT? This is a really important time in this game. We really need a lynch on mafia. That doesn't sit well with me. On January 05 2012 12:57 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
Also, your crazy to not think that there is no relation between who you analyse and find scummy and whether or not you are scum. If the person we follow along with the most picks 3 town in a row, theres a solid chance hes mafia. If the person we follow kills 3 mafia in a row, theres a solid chance hes town. I don't know how you can't agree with that.
@Everyone The phrase I bolded is really interesting to me. It seems like the town (including myself) has followed Probulous without much question. He has posted so much many long posts so often that we have written him off as town without thought and reanalysis. Do you think that Probulous is getting by without enough criticism? He's not a D2 lynch target by any means, but do you think that is true? This is NOT FOS, I'm just asking a question. The lurkers are better targets in your opinion. I admit it's certainly not pro-town play, but considering they are about to get modkilled or replaced, why would you not try to pick out the active scum? Even if they both would be mafia (Which I find very unlikely, and quite sure that's not the case), there would be still one scum remaining among the active players. Go and find that one! Then you talk about how people ghost Probu's analysis, even YOURSELF. But then you are getting suspicious on Gonzaw for doing the same. Do you have enough fingers to point in all those directions? I sure don't. Then you are "not suspecting Probu", but curious about if people are letting him by too easily. Sure, you can ask about it from others, but make a case on it yourself if you think that's what happening. I've seen at least me and Sheth critizise his analysis (admittingly, we were the ones being accused). Show nested quote +On January 08 2012 12:44 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
I've been too distracted by all of this pressure on me that I havn't done another full write up on Cephiro. That's no excuse, even to this point I haven't seen but smaller analysis from you, not a single "full write-up". Too distracted by all the pressure on you? That sure didn't prevent me from trying to catch scum when I was under pressure, even though admittingly delaying it a bit. Post 3. More coming up. For fucks sake. I'm away, I HAD to make a placeholder vote, what the fuck do you want me to do? I can't fucking believe I'm "suspicious" or something because of some shitty WIFOM from Jitsu's death and because I went inactive. IF YOU WANT TO MAKE A CASE AGAINST ME READ MY FILTER AND DO IT GODDAMMIT!!!!! I won't stand for this WIFOM shit, not at this point of the game. + Show Spoiler +On January 08 2012 22:40 Blurry wrote:Show nested quote +On January 08 2012 10:21 Probulous wrote:On January 07 2012 17:19 Blurry wrote:
I've been trying to figure out why someone would target Tunkeg rather than someone like Probulous (posted the most analysis and was one of the most assertive players thus far). I think this could potentially tell us certain things.
Probulous posted his reads on all the players in the game categorizing them by who he thought was town/neutral/mafia. While this does not make him seem any more scummy. My instinct on this is that a player who is mafia is categorized by him as being town and this cover would be useful to the mafia in some way.
My other thought is that Tunkeg was pressuring someone that was mafia in a way that made him the biggest threat. He was pressuring Gonzaw and Cephiro and also did a little bit on Sheth. Since Cephiro was already cast under so much suspicion by Probulous I infer that there is a high chance that either Gonzaw or Sheth, or both are scum and am going to re-read their posts thoroughly. My initial instinct is that Sheth is the more likely candidate as he has literally posted zero analysis and has simply pressured or challenged peoples points rather than helping us weed out scum. Terrible post, Gonz is right this tells us nothing at all. However you at least posted your thoughts on Sheth (Cats I'm looking at you). So to make it easy Blurry, would you vote to lynch Sheth? If not why not? Yes I would, and will. #Vote: Liquid'Sheth As to gonzaw's statement of me simply regurgitating information. For the most part that has been true but I've been going by my gut, which is not something you can post when convincing other people to take your side. I've been suspicious of Sheth from the start but don't have the analysis skills to back it up (I know that will read as scummy but bear with me) and write an informed post as to why. If I don't have the evidence to back up my feelings then there is no point in posting it. Wtf is this? So you won't even attempt to respond to my posts? You say you are going by "your gut"? Wtf? Also, I'll reread that "I've been suspicious of Sheth from the start" thing tomorrow when I check everybody's filter. I'll check the Cat situation too. Also, (maybe I'm late to this but whatever) everybody saying Blurry is town because he bussed Sheth "too early" or something is a fucking useless WIFOMist. Sheth's flip doesn't mean Blurry is town, doesn't mean I'm town, and doesn't mean Prob is town.
Calm down matey.
The only reason people were getting suspicious is because of Jitsu's post. I stand by my read on you based on a few things. The most obvious being you are aggressive and have called people on their shit.
Contrary to what others might think, your argument with Tunk makes you look more town than mafia. I see no reason for mafia to call attention to their hit right before the day post. It is just stupidly and unnecessarily putting themselves in the spotlight.
As for my WIFOM, I think it is pretty clear that there is no roleblocker, that is all I wanted to gain from it. No need to get all antsy about it. The WIFOM about you was to get people's thoughts on what is more likely. Clearly Cats is far more scummy than you, that is what I was trying to point out.
I stand by my Blurry read. You have to make up your mind on limited information, Blurry looks a lot less scummy than Cats. He hasn't said or done much but what he has looks like a newbie town in my eyes. You don't agree, why? You can justify what he has done from both a mafia or town POV, but one is more likely than the other given the reads you have on other people and how they flipped. I don't see how Blurry bussing Sheth so early is more likely than him just being a sheeping town.
Finally, anyone with half a brain knew you were away. You had a legitimate reason to put a placeholder vote down, and you placed it on a scum. You had been pushing Cats all game long, as mafia it would have been easier for you to just vote Cats as a placeholder and try to split the vote. In the same manner as Blurry, I think your early vote stands in your favour.
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![[image loading]](http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_-7gz1x_HNjE/SwqdxoGT0TI/AAAAAAAAAZg/xrPw4MbfbWw/s320/fedora_cat_hat.jpg) CatsnHats, the Indecisive Thug
Take a close look at that image above good sirs of the town. Would you trust this man to watch over your house when you were away on vacation? Would you trust him not to take advantage of you? Of course not! That fedora screams of lies and deceit. This is why among other reasons that shall be outlined below, that we should no longer stand for such a villain to remain living within our midst.
Fancy Analycising Follows:
Prob's analysis of Cephiro is very well thought out and cited, and your follow-up is logical. But all of this talk back and forth between you too and "what happens if we lynch a green and I thought he was red, what does that make me look like to the town" talk is very circular and frankly unneeded at this point. It's just dead text to me. We should focus on who's the scummiest, not the repercussions of being wrong on your read. Be confident and we'll deal with the effects after the lynch, not before.
That being said, despite your circular theoretical talk, at this point I'm confident in your analysis of Cephiro and think he is more of a threat than Gretorp.
So ##unvote Gretorp
##vote Cephiro
This is an obvious bandwagon vote, and in light of recent events (Sheth is a bad person) the fact that he followed his scum-buddy in the vote makes perfect sense. Before this post he expressed his read on Cephiro as town (too lazy to quote) but as soon as that post is written up about him and Probulous and Sheth vote for him he all of a sudden thinks that Cephiro is stabbing hobos in an alleyway.
I will say this to those that may claim that I have done a similar thing (which I have). I am, as Probulous so eloquently pointed out, a blatant sheep. I go where the grasses are the greenest and if someone has a good argument I believe them. CatsnHats is no sheep, he pushed for the vote of lurkers such as myself and Xeris, something that us sheeps would never be so bold to do.
This leads to my next point: His change of heart which perfectly coincided with Probulous' reconciliation of Cephiro:
Cephiro really impressed me with the way he defended himself against your analysis. His statistics post people got angry at him for isn't really that big of a deal for me since it was his first post and it's his first game of forum mafia. Ceph was also the first the post a write-up on all the town, although you picked it apart later. I still think that counts for something. He called out Sheth in his defense post for Sheth's wishy washy play, and later pressured me on my terrible play up to that point. His analysis was the reason I made the martyr post. There was no real way for me to defend my play up to the point, and seeing it written up that way I knew I was distracting from catching scum. His analysis is very good, and I hope he gets back from his sports tournament soon because he's an asset to this town. Cephiro is definitely a town read for me.
So now the town thinks Cephiro is innocent? Better change my viewpoint so people don't think I'm more of a murderer!
Need I explain more? Probably not! But I will anyways because I'm having fun with my stupid online persona.
This is not unique to simply Cephiro, notice how most of his reads on people where he says they are very town to him come after the majority of the town have come to that consensus. BANDWAGONING EXTREME DERBY!
Verdict: Blatant Bandwag
The train continues with his hesitation on lynching Sheth. Why is he so hesitant this young sheep asked himself! It's not as if Probulous' points on Sheth were any less convincing or accurate then those he had against Cephiro? So why was he so hesitant? Because bad mafias are unable to lynch their teammates. Sheth, sensing this posts this lovely gem:
@Cats Please switch your vote to me.
I sense shenanigans!
Also, his comment on my brilliant expose where I uselessly speculated on the meaning of Probulous not getting lynched reeked of indecisiveness:
His big analysis post was 1-2 sentences on each player. Not enough content. Thoughts?
Let me translate that from scumspeak to townspeak for you:
Guys, I want to know if I'm on the right track to being considered town again, if not I will try a different approach.
Still not convinced? Well let me provide a picture of myself to convince you otherwise:
Note the absence of any suspicious looking fedora and the sheepish look on my face! Of course you're going to believe me because I'm just so adorable that I must be telling the truth?
Still unconvinced? Check out these testimonials!
"A true force for good in our town! Blurry should be crowned supreme emperor of the town" - Kofi Anan
"This man wins more than me" - Charlie Sheen
"Please marry me Blurry!" - Mila Kunis
Now that you are totally convinced, Vote CatsnHats for lynch.
##Vote: CatsnHats
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Australia8532 Posts
On January 10 2012 10:31 Probulous wrote:Show nested quote +On January 10 2012 10:09 CatsnHats wrote:On January 10 2012 10:04 Probulous wrote:
Anyone roleblocked? Is this the proper time to announce it? I wasn't, but I've already said I don't have a role. I'm starting to think the mafia is afraid that we have a medic though. That's why they went for Tunk and Jitsu and not you Prob, for fear of the medic saving you (our "leader" of sorts). Re: Roleblock I am going to assume that no-one has been roleblocked for the past two nights. Why? Well we are in one of the following situations - There is no roleblocker
- Scum chose not to roleblock
WIFOM, I know but I think it is much more likely that scum would use everything in their power to deny us information. Given we have two nights with no roleblock and we have lynched a scum I think there is no roleblocker in this setup. That gives one of three situations - There are no power roles in this game
- There is a medic but no DT
- There is a DT but no medic
I just wanted to be sure that my assumptions were correct, hence the question regarding roleblock. THERE IS NO REASON FOR A BLUE, IF WE HAVE ONE, TO CLAIM.
DO NOT CLAIM For those unaware, I believe you are told whether you have been roleblocked regardless of whether you have a role or not.
There is no reason to claim you are correct; however if there is a DT in the mix, things can get complicated. I can explain a method of using a DT effectively that i have witnessed before if people are interested.
Anyway, BL jitsu - you will be missed. I am reading through Cats' and Jitsu's filter; mainly to try get a read on Cats and then see if Jitsu's claims line up with that reading. There were definite alarm bells going off when i was reading Cats' interaction with Sheth; how when Sheth was pressuring him, Cats wasn't really responding in a normal way. Through his analysis Jitsu claimed that for Sheth and Cats, whatever one flips the other will most likely flip. This was based off their interactions in the thread, all of which JItsu covered in his post HERE
On January 08 2012 11:58 CatsnHats wrote:@Prob yeah I do think they are (Blurry too) better scum targets than Sheth. I think we are letting the terrible activity level of half this town make us point the finger at each other. @Sheth you're exactly right. I'm ghosting on Prob's analysis of you. Gonzaw ghosted on it too and has already put a placeholder vote on you. I REALLY don't like that. He says that your words in your defense could have an effect on changing his mind, but that he won't be around to see it. WHAT IS THAT? This is a really important time in this game. We really need a lynch on mafia. That doesn't sit well with me. Show nested quote +On January 05 2012 12:57 Liquid`Sheth wrote:
Also, your crazy to not think that there is no relation between who you analyse and find scummy and whether or not you are scum. If the person we follow along with the most picks 3 town in a row, theres a solid chance hes mafia. If the person we follow kills 3 mafia in a row, theres a solid chance hes town. I don't know how you can't agree with that.
@Everyone The phrase I bolded is really interesting to me. It seems like the town (including myself) has followed Probulous without much question. He has posted so much many long posts so often that we have written him off as town without thought and reanalysis. Do you think that Probulous is getting by without enough criticism? He's not a D2 lynch target by any means, but do you think that is true? This is NOT FOS, I'm just asking a question.
This last part really confused me Cats; why soft accuse Prob and then end with THIS IS NOT FOS but provide no analysis?
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@Blurry Thanks for your mildly amusing expose on Cats. Whilst it doesn't add anything new it is a nice summary of Cats wishy-washy play. However, sheeping is NOT a point in your favour. Don't do it. You can start by giving me your case on who the third mafia is. Assume Cats is scum, who is his last buddy and why.
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EBWOP:
Kofi Annan, my bad!
Also @Probulous
I know it isn't a point in my favor but I was using it in jest, poking fun at myself.
At this point I think Cats' buddy is probably Gretorp because he mentioned that Xeris seemed more scummy to him then Gretorp did by virtue of Gretorp's I work all day post. Otherwise he went after all the other lurkers (hippo, me to some extent, xeris). So just wait for gretorp's replacement to post some more and nail him on his scumbaggery. But definitely for now stick with lynching Cats
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EBWOP:
I was blatantly wrong about that Gretorp thing, I don't know why I remembered that incorrectly. Discount that I'm going to look over his stuff again.
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On January 10 2012 08:14 Probulous wrote:BK, thanks for being somewhat active. Can you explain this inconsistency for me. Here you rightly point out that the case against Blurry is worse than the case against Gretorp. Show nested quote +On January 09 2012 12:49 bkrow wrote:
To be honest, considering those posts i don't see the case against Blurry more convincing than the case against Gretorp (now replaced by Paperscraps) - either Gretorp is very busy or very bad at being scum. Neither of those 2 situations are beneficial for town; but he is the first one that really grabbed my attention as inactive and intentionally dodging questions. He even promised analysis and.. well yeah..
I would love to hear from Paperscraps after he has caught up on the thread What does the "well yeah" mean? Are you implying he is scum or just pointing out that he didn't post it? From this you seems suspicious of Gretorp but are waiting on more information, is that correct? Then you write about Xeris Show nested quote +On January 09 2012 14:10 bkrow wrote:
I say we place FoS on Xeris (his replacement) and at the very least it will give him a chance to explain himself. For now i see Xeris as a more viable target based on Sheth's comments - but then again, to come out in such defence of a particular person when you are scum is basically tying your fates, so this may have been Sheth's attempt to latch onto a townie and at least secure some result if he was lynched. If you had read the thread at all you would that this town is particularly hard on being people being wishy-washy. What the hell was this? You are clearly suspicious of Gretorp for lurking and it seems more suspicious of Xeris for both lurking and Sheth's comments. Is that correct? If so why undermine the only case you have presented by suggesting that Sheth was trying to undermine Xeris' credibility? If we apply Occam's razor, it is more likely they are both mafia than Sheth had deliberately buddied up to an inactive townie in the hope that people would interpret his buddying up as scumbuddying. I don't get why you would post that. It just makes your whole post mean nothing, makes you look like you're contributing but gives you an easy out. Explain.
@BK, can you please respond to this. I would also like your thoughts on who the third mafia is, assuming Cats flips scum. Your thoughts on Gonz would be welcome too, try and ignore what I have written about him. Thanks!
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