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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
BKEXE if you are town please help!! because lynching a town today would really hurt our chances and people have so confidently voted for you they have barely been posting there has been very little discussion so far and so a mislynch would make today a huge waste of time that could have been spent scumhunting | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
On December 11 2011 06:43 layabout wrote: there has been very little discussion so far and so a mislynch would make today a huge waste of time that could have been spent scumhunting to be fair, we should continue to try to root out the 3rd scum player even assuming that BKEXE is town or scum or whatever. An early start is awlays good. | ||
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Tunkeg
Norway1235 Posts
On December 11 2011 06:35 layabout wrote: this last part is amusing because the chance of scum is either 0% 25% or 50% and i dont like those chances especially when they are based upon unreasonable and not useful speculation. You recommendation is more likely to lynch a townie and that would benefit mafia. I do not see how what you are recommending benefits town in anyway it would only serve to further a mafia agenda. the points i have added have been italicised (for clarity) and underlined (for my ego)+ Show Spoiler + actually it was also for clarity + Show Spoiler + this joke was for my ego i really think that the shoddy reasoning in this yourcould be an attempt at trying to hurt town/ help mafia. i think that tunkeg could be a good lynch candidate unless he can explain himself. if you have a town read on him then why do you think that he would behave this way? i strongly recommend you review your stance In my view I threath this game as a game where one should make educated guesses. Others allignment is not known unless you are scum (then you know other scum) or blue (depending on which powers you got). This is the key information you can base your actions on. For a regular townie there is no other information else then what players are writing and votepatterns and nightkills. When I made the probability lynch post, I made it based on what I thought was most probable at the time, with the given information I had. Given how easy the BByte lynch went through my view was that it was probable that at least 2 scum was in on it, either to get the bandwagon rolling, or just to confirm it. I then proceeded to narrow it down by excluding those I at the time considered least scummy of the bunch. The pairing of the four remaining players I did based on my view of their previous actions, excluding those pairs I considered the least probable. How you are calculating those percentages I don't know, because I find it hard to put a percentage on any of these pairings. I could only say they were more or less probable then a random lynch (IMO). The only correct percentage by the time is that a randdom lynch would give a 3/11=27,3 % hit rate. If you were to put percentages of hitting on the three pairings you would have to put alot of percentage guesses on for instance how likely is it that 2 out of 3 scums where in on the BByte lynch. Or how likely is it that neither BH and Velinath is scum and so forth, making it impossible to get a percentage out of it that says anything. So my statement on the probability lynch was simply that lynching one of the four mentioned would IMO give a higher probability to lynch a scum then any of the other reads I had. If you have ever played poker for instance, this way of thinking is pretty normal. You make educated guesses based on previous actions from the player, based on your own hand at the time, based on the cards on the board and so forth. Early in the game it is harder to put players on spesific hands, but the further into the game the more reads you have on them. But still you put them on hands based on what you think is logical, based on the information at the time. This was fairly early in the game, and I have allready stated that I think I was wrong (not that my logic was wrong) seeing that jay flipped scum, and I think BKE is scum. But I called it as I saw it, and I made my play based on it. Then it is up to the rest of you to evaluate wheather you think my logic was good or bad, or even if my play was anti-town as you are claiming. My thoughts on your write up on the subject though seems abit desperate, like you are fabricating a case on me based on nothing. | ||
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Tunkeg
Norway1235 Posts
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
it was stupid | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
replace stupid with unreasonable | ||
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Tunkeg
Norway1235 Posts
On December 11 2011 07:47 layabout wrote: your guess was not educated it was stupid In your opinion... | ||
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Tunkeg
Norway1235 Posts
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Tunkeg
Norway1235 Posts
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
my take the bbyte lynch: it was not a great lynch because the reasons given for voting for him were weak and his behaviour did not make him seem likely to be scum. but it was a day1 lynch and he was lurking and i do not think it is reasonable to expect to lynch mafia on day1, he was lurking and there weren't strong cases for alternate candidates. so i accept that you all lynched him do i believe that 0,1,2,3, scum voting for him was equally probable? no. do i believe a specific circumstance say 1 scum is more likely? no because we do not know who the mafia are and we do not know how they think or what their plan for the game is. the only things we know are that they are in the thread they win when they are equal or greater in number to town. the rest of our information comes from the thread from what we read in the thread. any thoughts or suspicions about what the mafia will do are of very limited usefullness because speculation about how mafia will leads to "circular reasoning that results from trying to determine the choices of an opponent who acted with full knowledge that their behavior would be subject to scrutiny."(from mafiawiki) this is why your guess is unreasonable mafia know that people may look at voting patterns and so they can try to act unlike what you expect or like what you expect because they expect you to expect them to act unlike how you would expect them to. trying to follow through such reasoning is unhelpful as it leads nowhere and as such reasoning dependent on the expected behaviour of the mafia has no value + all of the stuff about poker is useless fluff + calling my post desperate do not address the point i made instead you are asking me to explain myself but you have not justified your actions which were anti-town and supported by poor assumptions | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
if they were your town reads they should be included but you could argue that because you think that their behaviour is town-like and that they would be the worst lynch choices on the list you should not exempt them becuase that defeatd the point of lynching players who voted for a town because for some (bad) reason you think 2 of the total players voting for that town should be mafia because that is what you expect mafia to do. by eliminating players from the total you eliminate potential mafia and further reduce your chance of hitting scum. (which was 50% in the optimal situation) | ||
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Tunkeg
Norway1235 Posts
On December 11 2011 08:15 layabout wrote: im not posting a my read on every single player list and i will explain why in postgame when there will be no danger of me criticising the entire thread and derailing discussion my take the bbyte lynch: it was not a great lynch because the reasons given for voting for him were weak and his behaviour did not make him seem likely to be scum. but it was a day1 lynch and he was lurking and i do not think it is reasonable to expect to lynch mafia on day1, he was lurking and there weren't strong cases for alternate candidates. so i accept that you all lynched him do i believe that 0,1,2,3, scum voting for him was equally probable? no. do i believe a specific circumstance say 1 scum is more likely? no because we do not know who the mafia are and we do not know how they think or what their plan for the game is. the only things we know are that they are in the thread they win when they are equal or greater in number to town. the rest of our information comes from the thread from what we read in the thread. any thoughts or suspicions about what the mafia will do are of very limited usefullness because speculation about how mafia will leads to "circular reasoning that results from trying to determine the choices of an opponent who acted with full knowledge that their behavior would be subject to scrutiny."(from mafiawiki) this is why your guess is unreasonable mafia know that people may look at voting patterns and so they can try to act unlike what you expect or like what you expect because they expect you to expect them to act unlike how you would expect them to. trying to follow through such reasoning is unhelpful as it leads nowhere and as such reasoning dependent on the expected behaviour of the mafia has no value + all of the stuff about poker is useless fluff + calling my post desperate do not address the point i made instead you are asking me to explain myself but you have not justified your actions which were anti-town and supported by poor assumptions First. The poker thing was a comparason to a game where you apply the same logic as I did in my probability lynch case. Just as in poker you have imperfect information and you have to base your actions on educated guesses. These guesses takes many factors into consideration, including things like opponents trying to hide their patterns. But fine, enough poker talk. I think that looking for patterns should be a part of the scumhunt, as certain patterns will be there no matter how hard scum tries to avoid it. How much weight you should put on it is a different matter (you obv need to put it together with other reads) I called your post desperate because I think that is what it is. If you are scum, and BKE is scum you need something to divert attention off him and onto others. I think trying to pin me as scum based on my probability lynch post is pretty weak, and therefor desperate. In closing you say I haven't justified my actions. I thought that was what I did in my post replying to you, and in the probability lynch post itself. I can recap it: I called it as I saw it. I actually believe that it is something that should be taken into consideration. And I thought I was onto something. It was based on assumptions, poor is your words. But the entire game is based on assumptions. | ||
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Tunkeg
Norway1235 Posts
On December 11 2011 08:21 layabout wrote: also removing 3 players from the list is quite a major step to take and you really didn't justify it if they were your town reads they should be included but you could argue that because you think that their behaviour is town-like and that they would be the worst lynch choices on the list you should not exempt them becuase that defeatd the point of lynching players who voted for a town because for some (bad) reason you think 2 of the total players voting for that town should be mafia because that is what you expect mafia to do. by eliminating players from the total you eliminate potential mafia and further reduce your chance of hitting scum. (which was 50% in the optimal situation) Well you just aren't getting the point of my post then. I believed that lynch went as it did because scum players jumped on the bandwagon, I would say that is a fair assumption. Then I wanted to narrow it down, because just like claiming that everyone could be scum useless, so is claiming that all the players voting for BByte could be scum. I therefor eliminate the ones I belive are most town, BH and Velinath, and the one I know is town myself. This will be my final answer to you on this tonight, I am going to bed. | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
so i decided to see why, you made a post in which you began by saying people would ignore you and then went on to make worthless speculation and unjustified assumptions i feel that i have highlighted why this is this case very clearly i cannot believe that you have not adressed any of my arguements but have instead tried to attack my possible motivation and you have mostly just provided fluff It was based on assumptions, poor is your words. But the entire game is based on assumptions. justify them then!don't just say i made assumptions we need to in this game that is an entirely worthless statement as was your poker "analogy" you just make general statement about making reads and how reads are more valuable the more time passes. This has nothing to do with what you had written if you make an argument based on reasoning then you better have solid reasoning because otherwise your post holds no weight it is not helpful to town (unless it reveals that you are scum) because your entire argument relies on reason that does not withstand scrutiny i think we are past the point of this being a useful exchange because you clearly don't understand or are ignoring the point that i have made explain yourself and then try to help town by analysing behaviour | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
. I believed that lynch went as it did because scum players jumped on the bandwagon, /facepalm | ||
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BroodKingEXE
United States829 Posts
I made I mistake on the time of the day. It is over tommorow, so I will try to gather more info. At the moment I will put what I have gathered from the recent posts. Vel: Has contributed to the scum hunt and gathered pretty good info. He is my second best read as town. BH: I think his posts speak for himself. He has been most active scum hunt and analysis. Definetly townie, but do not use his evidence as your own; use his evidence to convince you to look for evidence of your own. Tunkeg: He is a probable townie. Has done some scum hunting and provided good info. I like his post on probability voting, he actually tries to read into mafia behavior, which will always have a motive. I feel that we can deduce this motive from a combination of scummy posts and lynch and kill analysis. I want Tunkeg to tell me how I would fit into the probability vote, before the lynch though. ey: I see that some of his posts have lies, but I have misread some of his posts too. While some of my evidence is bad, I still see lies in his posts that make me think he is scum. Grack: townie, he has provided good information and scum hunting second to only BH. He provides most of his information from responses to other bad posts. I feel that he has kept his cool the best out of any of the other scum hunters, so he has nothing to hide. layabout: so far layabout has started off trying to dig into tunkeg and put in a good response. Until LB posts more I can not say anything about his affiliation. xtfftc: is so far my best read for the second mafia. I have looked at people's arguments against him, and I see some inconsistencys. I will have more evidence before the lynch. Hassy/Blue: It is great that no one has picked up this spot. If we figure out who the next mafia is, then we can wait and see if the mafia kills. If not vote, him out. If this spot does speak be sure as hell everyone in town is a townie or else this spot will become the scapegoat for the mafia. | ||
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BroodKingEXE
United States829 Posts
1) A bandwagoner can get away with the vote, as when we look for who tried to push the false vote you will only find the people that provided cases. 2) A bandwagoner posts less, so we have less to scrutinize them on. 3) The bandwagoner might have an idea that we have not thought of. Although this was not for a specific vote, Tunkeg provided us with some insight on probability voting. Have a good night. | ||
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
On December 11 2011 16:18 BroodKingEXE wrote: ey: I see that some of his posts have lies, but I have misread some of his posts too. While some of my evidence is bad, I still see lies in his posts that make me think he is scum. If possible, could you post an updated version of your case against ey in which you remove the arguments of yours that turned out to be you misreading his posts, and you use the [quote[ feature legibly? It sounds like you have something worth saying, and if you're a town player, this is your last chance for real analysis. You still have 17 hours to live-- make them count. If you want something interesting to analyze, maybe take a look at the Grack/tunkeg fight. | ||
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xtfftc
United Kingdom2343 Posts
On December 10 2011 22:57 Tunkeg wrote: I belive it to be a good chance for BKE to flip red. If he do flip red who do you guys see as the third scum? EY and the two semi-inactives/lurkers (xsk+replacements and Hassy/Blue) are who worry me. | ||
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xtfftc
United Kingdom2343 Posts
*** On December 11 2011 02:21 layabout wrote: i need to take some time to try to understand Broodking 's post in the meantime i think that xtfftc: has made some glaring contradictions and that he owes and explanation Grackaroni highlighted this in an earlier post and i think you (xtfftc) need to expalin: you explicity state that you think Jay is the most likely to be scum and grack makes this point you call his "reasoning" (i see a simple statement of fact) "pure WIFOM" well where is the pure wifom in this? First of, nice to see you being active. Secondly - the answer to your question is in the very post you have quoted. It is pure WIFOM because the logic behind the vote I am accused for can apply to both mafia and town: On December 10 2011 06:23 xtfftc wrote: Your reasoning is pure WIFOM in this case. Jay was obviously going to be lynched hours before I posted the bit you quoted, so what could a townie do in this situation? Vote for Jay and be accused of sheeping after BH and bandwagonning (remember Tunkeg and his analysis of the Bbyte lynch?) Or vote for someone else and be accused of not voting for the obvious mafia. However, how come you quoted just half of my explanation? This is the full one: On December 10 2011 06:23 xtfftc wrote: Your reasoning is pure WIFOM in this case. Jay was obviously going to be lynched hours before I posted the bit you quoted, so what could a townie do in this situation? Vote for Jay and be accused of sheeping after BH and bandwagonning (remember Tunkeg and his analysis of the Bbyte lynch?) Or vote for someone else and be accused of not voting for the obvious mafia. Let's also consider me being mafia for the sake of discussing my actions. Vote for Jay and get accused of bandwagonning, or don't and be accused of not voting for the obvious mafia? It works both ways. You have cut out my actual argument: it works both ways. *** On December 11 2011 02:21 layabout wrote: you have stated that you should only vote for mafia and that you should lynch your best read and yet in the above quote you do not do that To the contrary: this is precisely what I was doing in the above post: pushing my best mafia read. On December 11 2011 02:21 layabout wrote: here earlier you didn't you have a strong case on a player but you would rather not post it and you would rather vote for someone other than your best read? seriously? I did post it hours before posting the bit you quoted. Seriously. Now, I could have expanded it a lot but unless you expect me to spend 5-6 hours a day working on my cases, I'll never be able to analyse everything I find in-depth. If this is scummy behaviour, 3/4 of the town are playing much scummier than I am. On December 11 2011 02:21 layabout wrote: so you vote for BByte why? "its better than a last minute suprise" you just jump on a bandwagon I did write extensively on why town should not waste their vote and that I was concerned about the lack of resistance there had been to Bbyte's lynch. Plus, we agreed that last minute switches tend to benefit the mafia, so we had to ensure this didn't happen. And anyway, jumping on a bandwagon is another thing that 3/4 of the town is much guiltier than I am of, yet you only attack me for this. Why would you do such a thing? I was pretty much the only one to try to push for a lynch that was based on analysis, yet you target me for "jumping" on a bandwagon? On December 11 2011 02:21 layabout wrote: another contradiction it also doesn't make sense that "to remind people that we have to catch the whole mafia team" could be a reason for a vote Of course it does make sense. We had the whole town sheeping for Day 1 and Day 2, so it is necessary to have proper discussions from now on. And what it is that I am guilty of exactly? Are you suggesting that I was trying to somehow save Jay by refusing to vote for him, even though there were like 10 votes for him a few hours before the deadline? | ||
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