On August 30 2011 11:23 chaoser wrote: I have a similar list but I think vain is a better candidate for mafia than kurumi.
You don't find his claim post weird?
I didn't really think anything of kurumi until his claim. However, if you look at all his posts/actions, the only thing of significance is that he vigged Palmar. There is no way to discern whether he is a scum vig or a town vig.
The only hint toward one or the other is the claim post, and as has been pointed out already, only kurumi capitalizes "you" in the middle of sentences.
On August 30 2011 11:23 chaoser wrote: I'd rather be safe than sorry.
Me too, I just have a different conclusion.
I still say we lynch bum today. We're going to lynch him eventually. We KNOW he's mafia. I want to know for certain his role as mafia, though, because IMO that'll give us more information than anything else.
Just think about it. You think vain and bum are mafia. Will lynching vain give us any information about other mafia? Most definitely no. Will bum's lynch? Yeah, almost definitely, because we know pyo was the only other one who voted vain.
The reason I want to lynch vain is because I think he's possibly the roleblocker, that's why. If brownbear was still in the game I'd have probably read it the way you did but since it's bumatlarge I'm more in line of thinking that it's all a giant double layered ploy, which I've seen him pull before.
And about Kurumi?
So you think the four mafia are like:
bum/vain/pyo ...?? viscera? Rayzor?
I guess the last one isn't immediately important, but even so...I'll vote bum tomorrow, you vote vain, we can just all vote whoever we think is the better lynch. Assuming they're both alive, of course...if we miraculously have a vig that'd be great.
On August 30 2011 11:23 chaoser wrote: I have a similar list but I think vain is a better candidate for mafia than kurumi. I am unwilling to let someone who I checked to be red to not be lynched, especially since all his posts/actions so far have been extremely suspicious. I still believe that you are trying to fit everything into a scenario that you believe to be correct instead of looking at the whole thing objectively. The whole thing is a giant exercise in "Wine in front of me". What if the mafia knew people who take it that way and acted accordingly to get one of their suspected off the grid? I doubt bum would be dumb enough to immediately push for vain's lynch today right at the start of the day over nard's. He's a vet player for a reason. In my opinion this is just a giant mind screw/ploy to leave vain alive and have only two mafia lynched over three and to undermine my check. I'd rather be safe than sorry.
this man speaks the truth.
mandatory viewing. And another thing: Occam's razor. What are the facts here? With the singular assumption that chaoser is in fact a detective, we have the following facts:
chaoser is sane
vain returned scum when checked.
What are the explanations for this?
vain is mafia
vain is miller
mafia has a framer, and chose to frame vain on the same night that chaoser checked him
there are three assumptions that must be correct for the third option to be the correct one, and one of them is counting on a role that might not be in the game being present. Occam's razor says that the most simple solution is usually correct, and WBG's solution is by no means the most simple.
The possibility of vain being a miller is valid, but based on his posting i believe him to be scum.
On August 30 2011 11:37 wherebugsgo wrote: And of course, lynching vain, even if he is mafia, gives us no information because he's said nothing. There are no links between vain and anyone really.
I've got an idea! let's lynch mafia because they're mafia, not because of the information that we'll get.
On August 30 2011 11:47 wherebugsgo wrote: And about Kurumi?
So you think the four mafia are like:
bum/vain/pyo ...?? viscera? Rayzor?
I guess the last one isn't immediately important, but even so...I'll vote bum tomorrow, you vote vain, we can just all vote whoever we think is the better lynch. Assuming they're both alive, of course...if we miraculously have a vig that'd be great.
What do you think of Kurumi's claim?
I'm most sure about vain/pyo/bum. I'm not sure about the last one. As for Kurumi, like you said, the only really weird thing standing out for him is his claim. And I think if he was really a mafia vigi he wouldn't telegraph it so far. He would have done it, waited to morning and then let mig claim he was the vigi. Mig was under pressure at that point and got lynched that day. If Kurumi was a vigi, he would have had mig breadcrumb it early the previous day (I think mig was pushing for palmer lynch) and then the next day mig could claim to throw suspicion off himself.
On August 30 2011 11:37 wherebugsgo wrote: And of course, lynching vain, even if he is mafia, gives us no information because he's said nothing. There are no links between vain and anyone really.
I've got an idea! let's lynch mafia because they're mafia, not because of the information that we'll get.
If we're working on the assumption that both vain and bum are mafia, then I say bum is the better choice because lynching bum gives us information.
How hard is that to comprehend? Forget my thoughts for a second here and just reason that out.
On August 30 2011 11:51 Varpulis wrote: damn i write slowly.
On August 30 2011 11:37 wherebugsgo wrote: And of course, lynching vain, even if he is mafia, gives us no information because he's said nothing. There are no links between vain and anyone really.
I've got an idea! let's lynch mafia because they're mafia, not because of the information that we'll get.
If we're working on the assumption that both vain and bum are mafia, then I say bum is the better choice because lynching bum gives us information.
How hard is that to comprehend? Forget my thoughts for a second here and just reason that out.
Lynching vain gives us info too though. Maybe I'm just not seeing it but how does lynching bum give us more info than lynching vain?
On August 30 2011 11:51 Varpulis wrote: damn i write slowly.
On August 30 2011 11:37 wherebugsgo wrote: And of course, lynching vain, even if he is mafia, gives us no information because he's said nothing. There are no links between vain and anyone really.
I've got an idea! let's lynch mafia because they're mafia, not because of the information that we'll get.
If we're working on the assumption that both vain and bum are mafia, then I say bum is the better choice because lynching bum gives us information.
How hard is that to comprehend? Forget my thoughts for a second here and just reason that out.
read your post bro. I read that as a defense of vain because the lynch wouldn't tell us anything (untrue as that statement may be).
As i keep saying, I just want them both dead, the order doesn't matter. vigilantes pick whichever one you think is scummier, i can guarantee that bum will flip scum, 95% sure on vain.
On August 30 2011 11:51 Varpulis wrote: damn i write slowly.
On August 30 2011 11:37 wherebugsgo wrote: And of course, lynching vain, even if he is mafia, gives us no information because he's said nothing. There are no links between vain and anyone really.
I've got an idea! let's lynch mafia because they're mafia, not because of the information that we'll get.
If we're working on the assumption that both vain and bum are mafia, then I say bum is the better choice because lynching bum gives us information.
How hard is that to comprehend? Forget my thoughts for a second here and just reason that out.
Lynching vain gives us info too though. Maybe I'm just not seeing it but how does lynching bum give us more info than lynching vain?
What info does lynching vain give us?
I can't see at any point, where vain has been linked to anyone. Lynching bum first will tell us Pyo is almost definitely mafia.
I guess it's just a formality on that, since if we think bum is mafia we don't need to see him flip to know Pyo is mafia, but w/e.
Also, if we lynch bum first and he turns out to be the framer then what?
WBG is using a lot of 'little things' about me in conjunction with my activity (which has been, as I've already admitted, horrendous) as his evidence against me. The sheer effort of his case screams town to me, first of all. I'll address a few of the 'little things' he's talking about.
On August 23 2011 09:05 VisceraEyes wrote: Guys, that's entirely beside the point. Meta is all you people listen to. METAMETAMETA. I bring up one post about meta and NOW you're scumhunting. NOW you're looking for contradictions in peoples' posts.
[sarcasm]Brilliant. I'm certainly more trusting of you now...[/sarcasm]
This seemed to me like a strong jab at Foolishness/chaoser and their use of meta to pin Mig.
This was actually more me pointing out the irony of how most of their arguments so far were based on meta, and the second I tried to speak their language with one of my OWN suspicions, THEN they started scumhunting. I went on tilt shortly after all of this.
On August 23 2011 09:08 VisceraEyes wrote: Foolishness, hiro protagonist, Palmar, xtfftc.
BOOM Headshot.
Discuss.
All four town, just subjectively "scummy" enough that day to be good potential lynches for mafia. We all ended up bandwagoning hiro, so mafia agenda was achieved.
To be fair, I had a scum-read on Palmar and hiro, and I was obviously wrong about Foolish. I'll post my thoughts on xtfftc later.
On August 23 2011 11:20 VisceraEyes wrote: My scum-list is long. And hard.
His response to my post asking for people's opinions. Basically saying he's
a.) unwilling to put in the work to examine his suspects b.) putting up an excuse/reason not to post analysis (i.e. he'd have to fabricate it.)
It seems, in context of all his other posts, like a reluctance to contribute.
This is me on tilt. It happens about once a game. People don't take me seriously, I rage. It's pretty standard VE stuff - you haven't played with me, so I wouldn't expect you to expect it.
On August 23 2011 09:23 VisceraEyes wrote: I see it Mig, but I feel like most everyone you just listed is town...
Soft defend of Mig there, made in response to Mig's post that "no one was defending him"
Yeah, I had a town read on Mig. The meta arguments were the only case against him really. I wasn't convinced at this point.
That's right fellow players! After 2 torturous days of trying to find mafia, hunting seasons has officially begun!
The target of our illustrious hunt is the elusive and fearful BROWNBEAR I will go through in detail the characteristics of the BrownBear. It is vital that we are all prepared to catch this sneaky fellow, as if we are too loud he will simply run away from our grasp, and if we are not careful he will sneak up behind us and maul (shoot) us.
1) restatement of already said arguments. As everyone should, BrownBear has written paragraphs to explain his lynch votes. Of course, everyone should justify their vote so we know where we stand. But our BrownBear is lacking in that he has yet to make a vote that is uniquely is own and push for it. Let me bring to attention these two posts: + Show Spoiler +
On August 21 2011 01:37 BrownBear wrote: And since I should practice what I preach and back up my votes (that much is true, Palmar) here's my thoughts on our friendly neighborhood sevryn:
On August 19 2011 23:39 Sevryn wrote: Right now DB is looking the scummiest imo and after what palmar did in Swedish house mafia I am inclined to trust him. That said if there is a good case against anyone else i would be willing to give DropBear another lookskie ## vote DropBear
His first post in game, seems rather silly, and is the post he's caught a lot of flak over. To jump in and insta-bandwagon is usually a poor choice. Also, trusting players based off of previous games is a poor choice in general. This looks to me like someone seeing an easy early bandwagon and hopping on it, hoping they can ride out the rest of the day cycle under the radar.
Pretty obviously he gets called out on it quickly, and then after a few posts this happens:
On August 20 2011 02:46 DropBear wrote: OK wtf Palmar? I actually don't understand. What is your problem with me exactly? Nearly all of your posts are one liners that are some variation of "Kill DropBear".
On August 19 2011 22:35 Palmar wrote: you guys are fucking lazy and boring.
Why not just bandwagon everything I say? that's a good plan.
Go read DB's first post in PTP2 where he was town. He's like 1000 trillion times more careful and vague in these opening posts than last time.
He's careful to just give advice that cannot possibly rub anyone the wrong way.
SCUM SCUM SCUM SCUM SCUM
The "not safe" post you link included a joke about Harry Potter, a complete throwaway vote on kitaman27 and a joke about sandroba's plans. My first post in this thread advocated forcing people to change their vote, how is that so incredibly safe compared PTP2?
I don't actually understand your case, I will talk to you more if you actually come up with something.
On August 19 2011 18:14 supersoft wrote:
On August 19 2011 18:00 Palmar wrote: how about putting your vote on dropbear?
##Vote DropBear
i just filtered him, and he just posted one policypost and no thoughts about other people. Why not pressuring him a bit. Can't be bad.
##Vote DropBear
and before anyone jumps on me like: "wtf he bandwagoned blablabla" - like Curu did in AA; I am NOT one of the players, that bandwagons on anyone random with a bad explanation only to show up the next day like "hey guise sorry what happened, oh you lynched scum - yea well I had stuff to do." I will be there at the end of the day and put my vote on scum.
My posts are 2 pages after the game started. 2 pages. Half the players hadn't even posted yet and most of the ones who did posted nothing other than "/confirm".
How do you expect me to have reads on people before they have even posted, through divination? Time travel?
What's with the random defence of your actions at the end? It's like you know it's a stupid idea, but you're doing it anyway.
Alright since I don't see anything scummy about dropbear at this point I'm going to take my pressure vote off of him. In swedish palmer asked me to put a pressure vote on someone who turned out to be scum. Because pressure votes don't work near as well if you say its a pressure vote I made up a bullshit reason to vote in that gmae like I did this game.
LOL PRESSURE VOTE JAYKAY GUYZ. Basically, I call bullshit on this for a few reasons: He says he "made up a bullshit reason" but that's not how you properly pressure vote. You pressure vote by building a legitimate case against a guy, try to get others to agree with you, then see how he reacts when there's pressure on him. Not by going "oh palmars right he was right in previous games ALL RIGHT THEN AUTOVOTEBOTS ROLL OUT". It was pretty obvious your vote on DB had no real teeth behind it, as was shown by you backing off the instant someone yelled at you.
I don't think you care about catching scum, you just want to find a hole to hide in for the rest of the day.
Since then, basically nothing except feebly trying to defend his "pressure vote", and nothing since like page 15 or so.
Summary: He definitely wants to hide under the radar. THe instant he got caught in the spotlight he shriveled up and backed off. This to me speaks scum or traitor. Either one is a worthy lynch candidate, and is a hell of a lot better than our usual "fuck around and then lynch a random guy" first day strategy, as palmar so succinctly put it.
On August 20 2011 05:09 xtfftc wrote: ##Vote: Palmar
He obviously had something in mind and there's no way he wasn't aware of how his accusations would be perceived by the rest of us.
However, his strategy hasn't benefited town by now. He has until the deadline to convince me to vote DropBear or BrownBear. If nothing meaningful comes out of the discussion initiated by him, I'd rather have one less player who throws arbitrary accusations around.
I'd also like to point out that it shouldn't be that difficult to convince me to switch to DropBear, considering DropBear's behaviour.
This is interesting. Can't say it wasn't welcome at the time considering how much Palmar was tunnelling me, but I go back to it and it feels rather strange. He wants "one less player who throws meaningless accusations around" sounds a lot like he wants "no players throwing accusations around" because at that point Palmar was really the only guy who was putting any suspicion on anyone (there was the sevryn thing, but that wasn't born out of someone accusing sevryn, that was more born out of someone noticing a pretty obvious slip sevryn made). Thing is, if nobody's accusing anyone, that's a veeery pro-mafia atmosphere. I suppose from the other side, it could be seen as him wanting to clean up the thread a little bit, but generally, going for the guy with the most posts on day 1 means you want to make day 2 a lot quieter - not a very town-centric viewpoint unless the guy with the most posts is really obvious scum (which Palmar isn't).
I'm asking for your thoughts on Sevyrn. Surely you have some thoughts on Sevyrn just from reading the thread like a good diligent Townie would be doing. I don't want a carefully crafted opinion or analysis, I want to know what you think about Sevyrn right now.
Mafia. The "pressure vote" thingie sounded too much like an attempt to be tough on mafia - and once he realised he screwed up he tried to disappear.
On August 21 2011 02:57 supersoft wrote:xtfftc on the other hand confuses my "I-know-not-all-of-you-are-scum-so-please-vote-list" with my accuses on him. I admit, I overlooked him when I made that list. However that doesn't mean my accuse on the first place was a mistake. I didn't revenge-voted him for voting palmar. I don't care who votes palmar. I voted him for his reason to vote Palmar.
I never said such a thing - I simply pointed out you were sloppy.
Pretty weak and short reasoning to change your opinion and jump on a bandwagon dude. At least your Palmar accusation had some balls behind it. Also he and supersoft get in a small catfight over "please vote lists" which is completely inconsequential, so I'm gonna ignore it.
On August 21 2011 03:24 xtfftc wrote: By the way, I have to apologise to supersoft - I just noticed that I didn't post in the voting thread, which was probably the reason he put me on his list (although it's still kind of sloppy).
So I'm going to vote after Sevryn defends himself. Palmar, DropBear and BrownBear are a story that has to develop further.
A little more explanation - but still not really any contribution. He wants to see the saga of me/DB/Palmar develop further... At that point it had pretty much settled into Palmar tunnelling me and Dropbear being mostly forgotten.
I approve of the apology to supersoft tho. Good sportsmanship there, keep it up!
On August 21 2011 03:35 wherebugsgo wrote: LOL Sevryn's running out of time. If he doesn't vote/defend himself, he gets modkilled, no?
The question is whether he will get modkilled enough to allow us another lynch target.
Shows a little bit of a lack of paying attention to the thread... at that point Sev wasn't a modkill candidate (unless the fact that he had voted but unvoted meant he would get modkilled, but I don't think that's how it works. If I'm wrong, then nvm.)
On August 21 2011 03:24 xtfftc wrote: By the way, I have to apologise to supersoft - I just noticed that I didn't post in the voting thread, which was probably the reason he put me on his list (although it's still kind of sloppy).
So I'm going to vote after Sevryn defends himself. Palmar, DropBear and BrownBear are a story that has to develop further.
wtf? why are you afraid of voting now? Is it because others have labeled you as scum already?
I expected supersoft to be superhappy about this but noone else. Sevryn is basically dead, one way or another. No mafia will be dumb enough to protect him anymore and the townies are aware that going after anyone else now would look suspicious. But in case Sevryn gets modkilled, we need to use the opportunity for two town kills.
This is "The Big Slip" that everyone keeps talking about. He explains it away as "town kills = kills by town" later, but... ehhh, lets look at it more.
The way I think he meant it is, he wanted to use our lynch vote to hit someone else, then let Sevryn get modkilled to take out the maximum number of people that day. This brings us to ye olde "Double Vote Conundrum" from back when double votes were standard in games. Thing about DVs is, sometimes they nail us 2 mafia and we are happy. Sometimes they nail us a mafia and a town, and we're like "ok, cool, I guess." Most of the time, we lynch two town and basically give mafia a free extra kill. In a situation where we have confirmed scum (like a DT check or something), then this can be an alright thing to use. In our case on day 1, the other suspicious players were me (not scum), DropBear (probably not scum), Palmar kinda (not scum), and Rayzor (no clue). This is NOT a situation where we want to kill an extra person - we'd argue a bunch, probably settle on one of the 4 people above (most likely Rayzor, given how he almost got switched onto), and then... what? We'd have possibly 2 town dead for nothing, scum still gets to kill at night, we're one day closer to MYLO than we would have been.
Someone's gonna say "But BrownBear, Sevryn was town! How dare you say an extra lynch would be a waste!" Yes, NOW that we know sevryn was town, we should have lynched someone else. DId we know sevryn was town at the time? No. The only person I saw who straight-up said Sev was town was Palmar, and I'm suspecting he just said that cause he was tunneled in on me and wanted everyone else to switch to me. Most other people either thought he was scum, or were convinced enough he could be scum to vote for him over a no-lynch. Towards the end of the day it got a little more vague with the switch, but clearly since everyone switched back, everyone preferred Sevryn to nobody, which is not the tack you'd take if you were 100% convinced sev was town.
On August 21 2011 03:54 Palmar wrote: he won't get modkilled if he's about to be lynched anyway, or well, that's the general way things are done.
In this case, ##Vote: Sevryn
Now, let's proceed with a discussion of what actually matters.
On August 21 2011 03:54 wherebugsgo wrote:
On August 21 2011 03:49 xtfftc wrote:
On August 21 2011 03:37 wherebugsgo wrote:
On August 21 2011 03:24 xtfftc wrote: By the way, I have to apologise to supersoft - I just noticed that I didn't post in the voting thread, which was probably the reason he put me on his list (although it's still kind of sloppy).
So I'm going to vote after Sevryn defends himself. Palmar, DropBear and BrownBear are a story that has to develop further.
wtf? why are you afraid of voting now? Is it because others have labeled you as scum already?
I expected supersoft to be superhappy about this but noone else. Sevryn is basically dead, one way or another. No mafia will be dumb enough to protect him anymore and the townies are aware that going after anyone else now would look suspicious. But in case Sevryn gets modkilled, we need to use the opportunity for two town kills.
Then who do you propose we vote for?
My gut says supersoft and QuickSilver but my gut is biased and wants those who go after me dead ^^ Although Supersoft being so cautious when defending Sevryn and yet so aggressive against me and his earlier bandwagonning is something worth remembering.
I want to hear more from DropBear and BlackBear. I do not find DropBear particularly suspicious but he still has to answer the questions raised. BlackBear is suspicious (going too agressively against inactive players, some random accusations) and, unlike DropBear, is a target we might get a majority for.
Hiro, judging by the OP I think we have about 6 hours left.
This is a very random post. Supersoft and QS is a bit of an OMGUS, which he admits.
His post about the Bears (it's BrownBear btw ^^ ) contains nothing to back up his accusations, which are wrong to begin with (wasn't going aggressively against inactives at all, posted in ONE POST "hey we should look at the guys who have only posted a few times and have contributed nothing", then Palmar jumped down my throat and made it seem like it was this huge thing that was the centerpiece of my evil plan to mislead and destroy town). Also, there was no chance I was gonna get lynched at that point. Whatever tho bro, continue to sheep along different paths without ever contributing your own ideas.
On August 22 2011 22:33 Palmar wrote: Yes, I have quite a few questions. are you available for a conversation?
First thing's first. Do you have any major suspicions. If it's up to you and you only, whom would you lynch today?
Sure.
I'm still just as suspicious of Rayzor as I saw two days ago. His defense ("would a mafia say this?") did not convince me because he was in a position when he had to say something like this. However, just like to days ago, I think that he is someone who should be pressured to talk more until he makes another mistake or we are convinced he is town. Even if he is mafia, he is not particularly dangerous at the moment because he can not influence the town at the moment.
This is why at the moment I'd go for Mig. Although he improved after his early post about Sevryn, he did not provide anything substantial. Also, although a lot of people casted their vote for Sevryn and then went to bed, Mig did it in in the middle tha attempted switch to Rayzor.
This is true, he was the first to dump an accusation on Rayzor. Perhaps we should look at Rayzor more, now that I think about it. We did almost lynch him, after all. xtfftc does harp on his accusations of rayzor a LOT from this point out, so I'll gloss over the posts that are literally just "hey guyz i was the first to suspect rayzor did you know I still suspect him?"
Although, he goes to mig as a better candidate. Let me highlight the part of his post that makes no sense to me:
Also, although a lot of people casted their vote for Sevryn and then went to bed, Mig did it in in the middle tha attempted switch to Rayzor.
So you're saying, instead of just voting and going to pass out, he voted late, then decided to switch for the guy you've been pushing all game... and this makes him scummy? I don't follow your logic at all, care to explain this one?
After this post, it basically boils down to VE discovering xtfftc's big slip, and xtfftc frantically defending himself.
VERDICT: He's focused a LOT on Rayzor and is "very suspicious" of him, but has always seemed to find a better lynch candidate (with really shitty logic usually, i might add.) His HUGE EFFING SLIP OMG is pretty damning - it seems he takes the "kill everyone and hope we hit mafia" approach, which I don't like one bit, because it's not a very town-favored viewpoint. He has yet to really contribute anything besides his Rayzor argument, and he hasn't backed that up too well. He's very comfortable sheeping along behind more vocal townies. He wanted stories that were already fully developed to "develop further".
In short, he's very wary of putting his ass on the line, and he's using very misleading and bad logic, and he's slipped.
I'm comfortable lynching him.
##Vote: xtfftc
In the first spoiler, we see the BrownBear explaining his vote for Sevryn. On it's own there's not much to say about it, and if this was the first accusation against Sevryn it would be pretty legit. The problem is that it's not the first accusation against Sevryn. By the time he made this post, Curu and wherebugsgo had already spent hours explaining why Sevryn deserved to die, and embedded in their arguments (as well as others) where the exact same reasons BrownBear listed. All he did was restate what everyone said. The first post of Sevryn's he quoted was the exact post that started the lynch against him (Sevryn), which was first pointed out by Curu and Kurumi. BrownBear wrote a text wall to explain his vote which can be summed up as "I agree with everyone".
And he was here posting in the thread against Palmar when the first accusations on Sevryn were going up as well. Except he tossed his vote on JeeJee with a text wall of analysis (some of which I admit was good). The problem here is that he accused JeeJee (fine) but then never again said a word about him. BrownBear was active for the next ~6 hours and was posting but never against said the name JeeJee. If he really thought JeeJee was mafia, he'd be there trying to push his lynch and get people off the Sevryn wagon. Instead he posted one liners (most against Palmar) and flat out did not say anything of significance to the town.
This is where the mafia hide. BrownBear is guilty of rewriting arguments to justify his votes. He's guilty of waiting until there are votes on a person before switching to them (check the voting history if you don't believe me. Both times he waited until at least 5 people were voting before switching to Sevryn/xtfftc). Both times he restated arguments to justify his vote. Even more incriminating, he never pushed hard to lynch anyone. He would make his vote post then write one liners and hardly touch upon his accusation. He seldom talks about who he thinks is mafia, and most of the time it's only when asked when he tells.
Also, if I'm right about Mig and Rayzor both being mafia, then this just further incriminates him more as he voted for townie in both situations (when he voted for xtfftc, at the time it looked like xtfftc or Mig was going to be lynched). There will be more about Mig and Rayzor later in this post. 2) Dodging Responses. We must be very wary of the BrownBear, because just when you think you have him cornered he barrel rolls to the side and escapes up a tree! Let's observe two of the instances where is dodging is suspect: + Show Spoiler +
On August 20 2011 22:20 Palmar wrote:
BrownBear
So, I decided to try a new tactic this game. Most towns spend day one arguing casually about policies and then lynch a scummy lurker. This is sometimes effective, sometimes kind of weird. This game I decided to just tear up the thread with some super-awesome tunneling on the first scummy fucker I found, and read responses by other people. There are two people who stick out to me as scummy from their reactions to my tunneling. Namely Sevryn and BrownBear. I feel more confident BrownBear is the scum of the two.
There are quite a few things in BrownBear's logic that really scare me. First off, let's take a look at the post that initially raised my suspicions of him:
Posts like this make me sad. Put some effort into the game.
Palmar/DropBear, I'm starting to believe at least one of you isn't, however this could just as easily be two townies chest-pounding day 1, at which point mafia just sits back and watches the fireworks as one or both get lynched, town wastes time, and they don't have to do jack shit.
Point being, Palmar, we know you want us to lynch DropBear. DropBear, we know you want us to not lynch you. Arguing about it just takes up space.
So, DropBear, if you want us to not lynch you, name someone who you think would be a better lynch target, and why. If no better alternative presents itself, I'll vote for you over a no-lynch, and you're the only person really with votes currently on you, so I highly recommend giving us some reasons why your neck should be spared.
And Palmar... you keep making statements like "nard's totally setting me up he's scum" or "dropbear's scum lets investigate by lynching him" without ANY backup. "Your first post was a question to mods ppl know YOU MUST BE COVERING YOUR TRACKS OMG MAFIA" does not constitute evidence. If DropBear's gonna be active and making plans, I'm inclined to NOT lynch him day 1, because it means one less inactive jackass dragging us down. Plus, the more active he is, the sooner he'll slip up if he actually is scum. Of course, lynching is preferable to no-lynching in 99.99% of cases, so I'll vote for him in the end if nobody else comes forth.
But I want to see a better case from you regardless.
Finally, DB's plan: in a perfect world, it'd be great, but I don't think an unofficial mayor will have the power necessary to break ties of more than one vote. Also, how do we know this mayor will be pro-town? How do we know you are pro-town? How do we know if ANYONE'S pro-town at this point?
We don't really, so I think an unofficial "mayor" will just serve to clog the thread further, will draw med-protects away from people who really need them like blues, and will end up not benefitting town in any major way.
I immediately called him out on the scum logic in his posts. I pointed out that one wouldn't have to make a big stretch to understand the bolded sentence as a free pass to anyone who was being active in the thread. Which conveniently enough also clears BB of any suspicion.
He also mentions the possibility of two townies just shouting at each other.
The reason this jumps so much out to me is that I used exactly the same logic as scum on day 1 in SNMMII as scum. I pointed out that two loudmouths were probably just townies shouting at each other and then I suggested that the real threat are the inactive people.
Deflecting lynches onto inactives is mafia's favorite way of playing day 1.
BrownBear's defense of this, is that I'm twisting his words. But can anyone honestly says he understands the bolded sentence in any other way than BrownBear wants to kill off inactive people over people who are active, because the active people will reveal themselves as scum at some point.
On August 20 2011 03:53 BrownBear wrote: I don't think I have... please quote where you're getting that from.
The only thing I can think of is in my large post, where I said if DB is gonna be active I'm less inclined to lynch him. This means I'm less inclined to lynch DB right now, NOT that I'm "heavily advocating lynching a lurker". Please don't put words into my mouth.
Here you go:
On August 20 2011 03:35 BrownBear wrote: If DropBear's gonna be active and making plans, I'm inclined to NOT lynch him day 1, because it means one less inactive jackass dragging us down. Plus, the more active he is, the sooner he'll slip up if he actually is scum. Of course, lynching is preferable to no-lynching in 99.99% of cases, so I'll vote for him in the end if nobody else comes forth.
Well, I read that as any scummy asshole with a plan is going to get a free bye on day 1, because you want to lynch someone inactive?
Or does, the free pass on making plans and blanket statements to avoid the lynch only extend to a specific pool of people?
I asked for something of substance and this is what I got?
Oh, you.
Ok, something you've pulled out of my reasoning that really just wasn't there. You're saying I want to lynch someone inactive. Not necessarily true. Implied, maybe, but NOT what I said. Again, you really need to stop putting words in people's mouths.
What I said there, and what anyone who took 5 seconds to think rationally got out of that sentence before you started spewing shit all over it, is that regardless of what I think about DropBear's alignment (and for the record, I think he's more green than not. Scummy, possibly, but not confirmed scum), I want to see people post more. We're on only 17 pages halfway through the first day, which is kind of sad. I want more content. DropBear's providing it.
I'm for lynching any of the semi-actives - that is, the people who are just contributing one liners and sheeping along to do the bare minimum to fly under the radar. Inactives = people who haven't noticed the game's started yet, people in different time zones who are sleeping, or people who don't care about the game. No reason wasting a vote on them - modkills will get them soon enough. The real area where mafia are probably lurking are the semi-actives - the guys who have posted a few times to be able to say "hey, I was here", but haven't contributed anything of substance or worth to the discussion.
That doesn't include DropBear right now. At the very least, he's provoking discussion both about his silly fake-mayor plan, and about whether or not he's red. He's defending himself and providing some alternate ideas. (Although, DropBear, "I will do so if it becomes necessary"? Really? That's not doing you any favors, bro). Right now, my list of semi-actives include: wherebugsgo, hiro protagonist, Foolishness, and JeeJee (when you read his posts, they don't contribute nearly as much as they do ask questions that go unanswered). I'm open to adding more to that list tho.
So let's start talking about those guys! JeeJee is the most suspicious to me right now: He's posted the most, but I see not all that much in his posts... it looks to me as though he's trying to post while not adding anything of value to town discussion. Just a gut feeling, but I still feel a lot better about lynching him than I do DropBear.
Anyway, long story short: You read things out of my post that didn't exist, those things are the entire basis of your case against me, your case against me sucks, gg, try harder.
##Vote: JeeJee
The first sentence is interesting. He makes a point that he did not say what I called him out for, yet he implied it? What's the difference? The mindset he's working in is the same.
I ask that everyone reads the post above carefully, and preferably often. Look at what he's saying. He's basically throwing a one-line accusation towards JeeJee in an attempt to divert the discussion off himself and DropBear.
The bolded sentence is another one of interest. I don't actually understand how he's going to scumhunt if he actively states that "mafia is amongst the semi-actives". Well sherlock, if you tell us that you're going for semi-active people, won't the mafia just stop being semi-active? And note that he himself is definitely not amongst the semi-actives, so he cannot be mafia, by his theory.
This case against JeeJee is basically just a throw-away case, BB knows well enough that JeeJee is not going to get lynched based on this case, and he's happy to look like he's not supporting a town lynch while throwing an off-vote on some random "semi-active".
So let's start talking about those guys! JeeJee is the most suspicious to me right now: He's posted the most, but I see not all that much in his posts... it looks to me as though he's trying to post while not adding anything of value to town discussion. Just a gut feeling, but I still feel a lot better about lynching him than I do DropBear.
Re-read his posts.
Look at them from the point of view he is scum, understand what motivations he might have for posting like this if he's town.
I think we have a great lynch candidate here town.
BrownBear is scum
##Vote BrownBear
This is Palmar's accusation of BrownBear day 1. I will say right now that Palmar's accusation is a bit iffy as I feel like he's stretching points to make ends meet. But as a whole, he brings up some good points about BrownBear deflecting discussion away from himself and DropBear. When I first read this post I was a bit intrigued. My initial response was "lol okay Palmar...whatever you say" but upon closer reading there are valid points that need to be addressed. And how does our BrownBear respond? Take a look:
On August 21 2011 01:23 BrownBear wrote: Lol Palmar? Keep trying to twist my words bro, it's getting you nowhere. You have no credibility with town right now, and you really only have yourself to blame.
Just give it up. Your crusade against bears has failed.
Switching my vote to Sevryn because that deadline's looming, and he's got the most votes right now.
Of course, why should he respond when he knows that things he say might incriminate him more? I will give him some benefit of the doubt in that it is Palmar, but long accusation posts in which there was a clear attempt of effort put in need to be taken seriously.
I'm interested in why BrownBear even chose to respond in the first place. VisceraEyes has called me mafia twice after I claimed the hit and roleblock, and I ignored him. Why? Frankly because it's VisceraEyes and I don't think he's serious. I figured that if I responded it would only clutter up the thread and lead to an argument. But BrownBear chooses to respond to Palmar with clutter, basically telling him "go home bro".
Another dodge which I overlooked for a long while is this conversation I had with him:
On August 22 2011 12:24 BrownBear wrote: Your accusation of me rings rather hollow - meta builds a pretty shit argument, I'm sorry to say. Also, it was mafia XXX in which you survived that night 1 hit and proceeded to destroy us
Btw, since Palmar is tunneled in on me worse than a minecrafter going after diamond, you do realize he's going to pick up that little nugget you dropped and run with it, so I hope you're damn sure of my scummitude, otherwise this is going to just clog up the day post with useless one-liners from him.
It's nice to be reasonably sure in one townie, though Got any other ideas about potential lynch targets?
Not really. Look at the player list. Who do you think would roleblock and hit me in the same night?
On August 22 2011 12:35 BrownBear wrote: Not me. If I were playing mafia, I'd roleblock and doublestack you to ensure you died night 1. You're far too dangerous to a red team left alive.
Dodge much? Why wouldn't you answer that question and instead choose to immediately defend himself? All he had to do was say "chaoser" or "jackal" or "maybe chaos13 or DropBear or Curu". Or he could have easily taken what Curu said: "Foolishness, I don't think it means anything; plenty of people know about your history, and it's easy to find out from the mafia quiz. Frankly I could see almost anyone roleblocking and hitting you at once, especially if they couldn't agree on a better target". That's a very pro-town response (what Curu wrote) because it's honest and considering alternate possibilities to a situation. But yet, BrownBear chooses to claim innocence.
It's almost like if you caught a 5 year old stealing cookies and then asked him "who do you think stole the cookies?" and he immediately responds "I didn't do it!". ATTENTION: IF YOU ARE VISCERAEYES PLEASE STOP READING HERE AND CONTINUE TO THE SUMMARY AT THE BOTTOM. THE NEXT SECTION IS ALL ABOUT BEHAVIOR ANALYSIS AND "META", OF WHICH YOU CLAIM MEANS NOTHING IN TERMS OF FINDING MAFIA
This quote will lead into my last point:
On August 22 2011 12:24 BrownBear wrote: Your accusation of me rings rather hollow - meta builds a pretty shit argument, I'm sorry to say. Also, it was mafia XXX in which you survived that night 1 hit and proceeded to destroy us
Btw, since Palmar is tunneled in on me worse than a minecrafter going after diamond, you do realize he's going to pick up that little nugget you dropped and run with it, so I hope you're damn sure of my scummitude, otherwise this is going to just clog up the day post with useless one-liners from him.
It's nice to be reasonably sure in one townie, though Got any other ideas about potential lynch targets?
First I want to address his "meta builds a pretty shit argument", because I honestly think he knows better than that. He's been around for a while now and plays a pretty mean game of mafia.
Secondly, he's reasonably sure that I'm townie though. Nothing to say about that. He asks me about potential lynch targets. Of course I have potential lynch targets, everyone does. We all know that it's at this post chaoser and I voted for Mig. I was pleased for him to say this because I thought he was on my side. I believed he would listen to what I say and auto vote with me with simple logic: "well Foolishness is 99% confirmed. Foolishness is known for hunting mafia, particularly lurkers. If he says person X is mafia, person X is probably mafia". Boy was I in for a surprise.
3) Failure to comment about Mig. For those that haven't figured it out yet, I deliberately laid a trap for the mafia day 2. I was very certain that Mig was mafia after chaoser's initial accusation so I decided to vote for Mig and go afk. I knew chaoser was going to be afk soon based on his posting schedule as well.
What's the trap? Assume for a minute that Mig is mafia (just go with it for a second here, I'll comment about this assumption later on). Mafia won't let one of their own die day 2, so at some point we can either expect someone to come in and help defend Mig OR for the topic to derail and shift the focus on a townie. And the latter is what happened. At the beginning of the day everyone was discussing Mig and quite a few people were on board with chaoser and I. This is reflected in the fact that 3 others voted for Mig in this time.
What happened then? Hours upon hours later, Mig was just a secondary topic to the newfound suspect: xtfftc. Attention shifted to xtfftc and it was immediately clear to me that Mig was probably not going to get lynched because everyone just kinda forgot about him. Now it's what happened in between that's very important.
Mig correctly pointed out in his defense, "If I'm mafia, why has nobody come in to defend me? Am I so bad that the mafia team has left me to die?" A valid point, but he brings this up multiple times (which I believe is an indication he's mafia, but this is about BrownBear). Now I didn't comment on this at the time, but the mafia did not need to defend Mig because they distracted the town with a different target: xtfftc.
I advise you all to reread day 2 if you have the time. When you do, you will notice that there are a handful of people who refuse to comment about Mig. This is important. Why, as a townie, would you ignore one of the most prominent lynch suspects for the day? Multiple people wanted to kill Mig, why would you disregard that and shift focus elsewhere? This is precisely what mafia did, and this is why I was sure xtfftc was town. Since nobody was defending Mig, I knew attention would shift to another candidate and the mafia would run with that.
Here is the list of people that never voiced their opinion about Mig:
BrownBear, RayzorFlash, Hiro Protagonist, Vain.
A few people half ignored the Mig but not to the same extent as the above four. I jotted down their names as well:
Barundar, Erandorr, Greymist (who is now Insert_Freq).
This is why I was okay with the Hiro lynch yesterday, because he was on the top of the list. And no, before you say, I'm not claiming that these lists are perfect and that I've found the entire mafia team. But I bet that there's at least 3 mafia in these 7 people, and my guess is it's BrownBear, Rayzor, and Barundar. With Mig as mafia that's 4 mafia I found. This is why I was adamant about killing Mig. If he flips red I guarantee there are mafia in those lists I just wrote.
This is also why I kept telling people to look at the big picture and put the pieces together. Everything fits together perfectly. Mig is mafia, he uses the "why is nobody defending me" in his defense because he knows the mafia is deliberately shifting town focus onto someone else (xtfftc). The people who are doing that are most likely those who aren't voicing their opinion about Mig. Mig acts like he's helpless and nobody is on his side (anyone else ever notice how concise his defense posts are?)
Remember that this is mafia, the pieces of the puzzle do not fit together in an arbitrary manner. I know some of you will probably say that I'm just throwing together random happenings and this is all just coincidence, but I encourage you to go reread any mafia game upon seeing the mafia list. It will be immediately clear why those people were mafia and how they were all linked together in the process. That's why I am able to say the things I've been saying with such certainty. I found the big picture and the majority of the pieces that go with it.
For those that aren't convinced Mig is mafia, at the very least this shows that BrownBear is not willing to comment on big town issues. Why is he blatantly ignoring all posts against the person with the highest or second highest vote count? Why does he refuse to comment about him? Simple, BrownBear does not care about the town, nor does he care about who's getting lynched. The only other explanation is that he is so convinced that xtfftc is mafia that he cannot focus about anyone else. Based on his posting history we can all agree that's not going to be true.
If you don't believe me, go filter BrownBear's posts and ctfl + f 'Mig'. He only mentions his name in passing "looks like Mig or xtfftc is getting lynched today". No discussion about whether Mig might be mafia or not.
Note: this next part is important. Take a look at BrownBear's post when I posted the 'trap card' meme:
On August 25 2011 05:48 Curu wrote: BrownBear doesn't have a single original post or opinion after the throwaway on JeeJee. Yeah you post a wall of text everyday, but it's a post-by-post analysis on one single person. You criticize Palmar for tunnelvision but look at yourself dude, except you don't even seem interested in trying to push your one tunneled person while Palmar is actually trying to get them lynched.
How is deciding I think xtfftc is scum, posting analysis on him, then reading everyone else's analysis, deciding mine's still better, and sticking to it tunnelvision? Are you saying the arguments against hiro were correct? Sure, some of them had merit, but in the end I thought the case against him was extremely weak, and my case was better. Mig's got a stronger case, I wouldn't mind him as a lynch target tomorrow, but I'm still gonna be pushing xtfftc until a better candidate comes along. That's not tunnelvision. Tunnelvision is when you're argument against someone boils down to:
1. He's scum because he called me out on my scummy behavior (classic OMGUS btw) 2. He's scum because I think he is.
And then posting one-liners all game along the lines of "Let's lynch Player X" while offering NOTHING ELSE constructive.
What you call "not being interested in pushing your case" is actually me just being drowned out by a metric buttload of spam.
Also, I really don't see how Palmar is trying to get me lynched - or even really trying in this game anymore. He basically ragequit with this little gem:
On August 25 2011 01:11 Palmar wrote: Yeah I know.
I'm generally active, but not like I've been this game. Thing is, I don't yet know how to convince an unresponsive town without PMs. This is the first time as town where I want to be listened to and get completely ignored. In all those games I've played recently I've had my way, and town has done very well for it.
For some reason, mafia influenced or not, this town is different than others. People here refuse to listen to reason, and lynch based on what, but not on how. The ridiculousness reached new heights when people started accusing me of being scum for the crime of being right.
I'll take a step back, I think I've made my thoughts pretty clear, I've built my cases and submitted my reads. The rest of you can do what you wish with them, I'm not posting unless necessary now.
(ps don't ragequit yet Palmar, I know you can actually play this game, and if you drop the tunnel and cut the spam, you can really help town win. We still have a very real chance at turning this around, but we need active players like you to help!)
That is the first (yes, the first) time BrownBear has voiced an opinion about Mig. And what is the first thing he said? "Mig's got a [strong] case against him". Wow, how convenient for you to say that considering YOUVE NEVER EVEN SAID ANYTHING ABOUT MIG IN THE PAST 72 HOURS! And now all of a sudden you think the case against him is good? Where were you when chaoser was accusing him, or when Mig and I were going back and forth? You were definitely here because you were posting in the thread. Nevermind I can answer that for you: you don't care about the town (and that's regardless if Mig is mafia or not).
I imagine that BrownBear must have an expression on his face similar to this: I have now provided all the necessary information needed. As a town, you now have the tools to hunt the BrownBear and prevent him from escaping. Together, united, you can capture the BrownBear and once again bring peace to our town! SUMMARY Jimminy Christmas that was long. Let's recap on everything I have said since I know there's bound to be a few people who are too lazy to read through all of this:
1) BrownBear is mafia 2) BrownBear's vote posts are just restating already said arguments. He's never voiced his own opinion. Furthermore he never pushes who he's voting for. He makes his vote post, then spams one liners. 3) BrownBear has been extremely dodging and defense. He flat out refuses to respond to Palmar even with Palmar writes something good. He is very insistent that he is innocent. 4) BrownBear has refused to say anything with regards to Mig (until just now). If he was town he would be sure to voice his opinion on one of the top lynch candidates. He does not care about the town and this is evident because he has ignored the case against Mig. 5) If Mig is mafia, then BrownBear (and a few others) implicitly defended him by purposely switching town focus onto xtfftc (and then Hiro). They did this by not sharing their opinions about Mig and instead wrote paragraphs about why xtfftc (or Hiro) should have been lynched. I will still advocate that Mig should be the next lynch. But if you are too put off by his defense then BrownBear must die.
On a random note I believe Pyo to be mafia as well. Someone should take a look at him in the near future.
I read this in its entirety. I will gladly lynch either one of Mig or BB. Whoever town thinks is most scummy. I think of the two it's BB. I can't wrap my head around Mig yet...going back to reread the cases against him again. As I recall they were heavily based on meta. But unfortunately I admittedly hardly ever return to previous games to check the validity of meta statements unless I was in the game personally. Call it an investment of time I'm not willing to make in most cases.
I'm going to do so and return further informed.
VE uses a false dichotomy to insinuate that only one of BB/Mig can be mafia.
This is a mistake. I was only referring to the fact that we can only lynch one of them. At this point, I had started to doubt my town read on Mig and I hadn't yet gone back to reread the games Foolish was basing his meta read on. I was keener on BB because unlike Palmar's case, Foolish's case was actually good and I was convinced.
Now, I'd like to clear up that I don't think meta is useless. Far from it, but I don't think it's enough to base a lynch off of alone.
I don't blame you guys if you lynch me for my inactivity. I've been playing a LOT of mafia recently, on a couple different sites also + Show Spoiler +
I've been working on a podcast...it's cool. Go to Nerd National to check it out!
other stuff, so I know my activity has been lacking.
But I'm not scum.
The reason I was so late on the nard lynch was because I had a town read on him before (see my post to that effect) and to be honest, I wanted to help town lynch who town wanted to lynch in case he WAS scum and the scumteam wanted to try another vote-switch. Ultimately, I'm glad I did.
Now, I'll be back with my reads later. This was just a defense post, and should be taken as such. I'm filtering a few people presently and I'll write up all my thoughts.
On August 30 2011 14:21 VisceraEyes wrote: WBG is using a lot of 'little things' about me in conjunction with my activity (which has been, as I've already admitted, horrendous) as his evidence against me. The sheer effort of his case screams town to me, first of all. I'll address a few of the 'little things' he's talking about.
On August 23 2011 09:05 VisceraEyes wrote: Guys, that's entirely beside the point. Meta is all you people listen to. METAMETAMETA. I bring up one post about meta and NOW you're scumhunting. NOW you're looking for contradictions in peoples' posts.
[sarcasm]Brilliant. I'm certainly more trusting of you now...[/sarcasm]
This seemed to me like a strong jab at Foolishness/chaoser and their use of meta to pin Mig.
This was actually more me pointing out the irony of how most of their arguments so far were based on meta, and the second I tried to speak their language with one of my OWN suspicions, THEN they started scumhunting. I went on tilt shortly after all of this.
On August 23 2011 09:08 VisceraEyes wrote: Foolishness, hiro protagonist, Palmar, xtfftc.
BOOM Headshot.
Discuss.
All four town, just subjectively "scummy" enough that day to be good potential lynches for mafia. We all ended up bandwagoning hiro, so mafia agenda was achieved.
To be fair, I had a scum-read on Palmar and hiro, and I was obviously wrong about Foolish. I'll post my thoughts on xtfftc later.
On August 23 2011 11:20 VisceraEyes wrote: My scum-list is long. And hard.
His response to my post asking for people's opinions. Basically saying he's
a.) unwilling to put in the work to examine his suspects b.) putting up an excuse/reason not to post analysis (i.e. he'd have to fabricate it.)
It seems, in context of all his other posts, like a reluctance to contribute.
This is me on tilt. It happens about once a game. People don't take me seriously, I rage. It's pretty standard VE stuff - you haven't played with me, so I wouldn't expect you to expect it.
That's right fellow players! After 2 torturous days of trying to find mafia, hunting seasons has officially begun!
The target of our illustrious hunt is the elusive and fearful BROWNBEAR I will go through in detail the characteristics of the BrownBear. It is vital that we are all prepared to catch this sneaky fellow, as if we are too loud he will simply run away from our grasp, and if we are not careful he will sneak up behind us and maul (shoot) us.
1) restatement of already said arguments. As everyone should, BrownBear has written paragraphs to explain his lynch votes. Of course, everyone should justify their vote so we know where we stand. But our BrownBear is lacking in that he has yet to make a vote that is uniquely is own and push for it. Let me bring to attention these two posts: + Show Spoiler +
On August 21 2011 01:37 BrownBear wrote: And since I should practice what I preach and back up my votes (that much is true, Palmar) here's my thoughts on our friendly neighborhood sevryn:
On August 19 2011 23:39 Sevryn wrote: Right now DB is looking the scummiest imo and after what palmar did in Swedish house mafia I am inclined to trust him. That said if there is a good case against anyone else i would be willing to give DropBear another lookskie ## vote DropBear
His first post in game, seems rather silly, and is the post he's caught a lot of flak over. To jump in and insta-bandwagon is usually a poor choice. Also, trusting players based off of previous games is a poor choice in general. This looks to me like someone seeing an easy early bandwagon and hopping on it, hoping they can ride out the rest of the day cycle under the radar.
Pretty obviously he gets called out on it quickly, and then after a few posts this happens:
On August 20 2011 02:46 DropBear wrote: OK wtf Palmar? I actually don't understand. What is your problem with me exactly? Nearly all of your posts are one liners that are some variation of "Kill DropBear".
On August 19 2011 22:35 Palmar wrote: you guys are fucking lazy and boring.
Why not just bandwagon everything I say? that's a good plan.
Go read DB's first post in PTP2 where he was town. He's like 1000 trillion times more careful and vague in these opening posts than last time.
He's careful to just give advice that cannot possibly rub anyone the wrong way.
SCUM SCUM SCUM SCUM SCUM
The "not safe" post you link included a joke about Harry Potter, a complete throwaway vote on kitaman27 and a joke about sandroba's plans. My first post in this thread advocated forcing people to change their vote, how is that so incredibly safe compared PTP2?
I don't actually understand your case, I will talk to you more if you actually come up with something.
On August 19 2011 18:14 supersoft wrote:
On August 19 2011 18:00 Palmar wrote: how about putting your vote on dropbear?
##Vote DropBear
i just filtered him, and he just posted one policypost and no thoughts about other people. Why not pressuring him a bit. Can't be bad.
##Vote DropBear
and before anyone jumps on me like: "wtf he bandwagoned blablabla" - like Curu did in AA; I am NOT one of the players, that bandwagons on anyone random with a bad explanation only to show up the next day like "hey guise sorry what happened, oh you lynched scum - yea well I had stuff to do." I will be there at the end of the day and put my vote on scum.
My posts are 2 pages after the game started. 2 pages. Half the players hadn't even posted yet and most of the ones who did posted nothing other than "/confirm".
How do you expect me to have reads on people before they have even posted, through divination? Time travel?
What's with the random defence of your actions at the end? It's like you know it's a stupid idea, but you're doing it anyway.
Alright since I don't see anything scummy about dropbear at this point I'm going to take my pressure vote off of him. In swedish palmer asked me to put a pressure vote on someone who turned out to be scum. Because pressure votes don't work near as well if you say its a pressure vote I made up a bullshit reason to vote in that gmae like I did this game.
LOL PRESSURE VOTE JAYKAY GUYZ. Basically, I call bullshit on this for a few reasons: He says he "made up a bullshit reason" but that's not how you properly pressure vote. You pressure vote by building a legitimate case against a guy, try to get others to agree with you, then see how he reacts when there's pressure on him. Not by going "oh palmars right he was right in previous games ALL RIGHT THEN AUTOVOTEBOTS ROLL OUT". It was pretty obvious your vote on DB had no real teeth behind it, as was shown by you backing off the instant someone yelled at you.
I don't think you care about catching scum, you just want to find a hole to hide in for the rest of the day.
Since then, basically nothing except feebly trying to defend his "pressure vote", and nothing since like page 15 or so.
Summary: He definitely wants to hide under the radar. THe instant he got caught in the spotlight he shriveled up and backed off. This to me speaks scum or traitor. Either one is a worthy lynch candidate, and is a hell of a lot better than our usual "fuck around and then lynch a random guy" first day strategy, as palmar so succinctly put it.
On August 20 2011 05:09 xtfftc wrote: ##Vote: Palmar
He obviously had something in mind and there's no way he wasn't aware of how his accusations would be perceived by the rest of us.
However, his strategy hasn't benefited town by now. He has until the deadline to convince me to vote DropBear or BrownBear. If nothing meaningful comes out of the discussion initiated by him, I'd rather have one less player who throws arbitrary accusations around.
I'd also like to point out that it shouldn't be that difficult to convince me to switch to DropBear, considering DropBear's behaviour.
This is interesting. Can't say it wasn't welcome at the time considering how much Palmar was tunnelling me, but I go back to it and it feels rather strange. He wants "one less player who throws meaningless accusations around" sounds a lot like he wants "no players throwing accusations around" because at that point Palmar was really the only guy who was putting any suspicion on anyone (there was the sevryn thing, but that wasn't born out of someone accusing sevryn, that was more born out of someone noticing a pretty obvious slip sevryn made). Thing is, if nobody's accusing anyone, that's a veeery pro-mafia atmosphere. I suppose from the other side, it could be seen as him wanting to clean up the thread a little bit, but generally, going for the guy with the most posts on day 1 means you want to make day 2 a lot quieter - not a very town-centric viewpoint unless the guy with the most posts is really obvious scum (which Palmar isn't).
I'm asking for your thoughts on Sevyrn. Surely you have some thoughts on Sevyrn just from reading the thread like a good diligent Townie would be doing. I don't want a carefully crafted opinion or analysis, I want to know what you think about Sevyrn right now.
Mafia. The "pressure vote" thingie sounded too much like an attempt to be tough on mafia - and once he realised he screwed up he tried to disappear.
On August 21 2011 02:57 supersoft wrote:xtfftc on the other hand confuses my "I-know-not-all-of-you-are-scum-so-please-vote-list" with my accuses on him. I admit, I overlooked him when I made that list. However that doesn't mean my accuse on the first place was a mistake. I didn't revenge-voted him for voting palmar. I don't care who votes palmar. I voted him for his reason to vote Palmar.
I never said such a thing - I simply pointed out you were sloppy.
Pretty weak and short reasoning to change your opinion and jump on a bandwagon dude. At least your Palmar accusation had some balls behind it. Also he and supersoft get in a small catfight over "please vote lists" which is completely inconsequential, so I'm gonna ignore it.
On August 21 2011 03:24 xtfftc wrote: By the way, I have to apologise to supersoft - I just noticed that I didn't post in the voting thread, which was probably the reason he put me on his list (although it's still kind of sloppy).
So I'm going to vote after Sevryn defends himself. Palmar, DropBear and BrownBear are a story that has to develop further.
A little more explanation - but still not really any contribution. He wants to see the saga of me/DB/Palmar develop further... At that point it had pretty much settled into Palmar tunnelling me and Dropbear being mostly forgotten.
I approve of the apology to supersoft tho. Good sportsmanship there, keep it up!
On August 21 2011 03:35 wherebugsgo wrote: LOL Sevryn's running out of time. If he doesn't vote/defend himself, he gets modkilled, no?
The question is whether he will get modkilled enough to allow us another lynch target.
Shows a little bit of a lack of paying attention to the thread... at that point Sev wasn't a modkill candidate (unless the fact that he had voted but unvoted meant he would get modkilled, but I don't think that's how it works. If I'm wrong, then nvm.)
On August 21 2011 03:24 xtfftc wrote: By the way, I have to apologise to supersoft - I just noticed that I didn't post in the voting thread, which was probably the reason he put me on his list (although it's still kind of sloppy).
So I'm going to vote after Sevryn defends himself. Palmar, DropBear and BrownBear are a story that has to develop further.
wtf? why are you afraid of voting now? Is it because others have labeled you as scum already?
I expected supersoft to be superhappy about this but noone else. Sevryn is basically dead, one way or another. No mafia will be dumb enough to protect him anymore and the townies are aware that going after anyone else now would look suspicious. But in case Sevryn gets modkilled, we need to use the opportunity for two town kills.
This is "The Big Slip" that everyone keeps talking about. He explains it away as "town kills = kills by town" later, but... ehhh, lets look at it more.
The way I think he meant it is, he wanted to use our lynch vote to hit someone else, then let Sevryn get modkilled to take out the maximum number of people that day. This brings us to ye olde "Double Vote Conundrum" from back when double votes were standard in games. Thing about DVs is, sometimes they nail us 2 mafia and we are happy. Sometimes they nail us a mafia and a town, and we're like "ok, cool, I guess." Most of the time, we lynch two town and basically give mafia a free extra kill. In a situation where we have confirmed scum (like a DT check or something), then this can be an alright thing to use. In our case on day 1, the other suspicious players were me (not scum), DropBear (probably not scum), Palmar kinda (not scum), and Rayzor (no clue). This is NOT a situation where we want to kill an extra person - we'd argue a bunch, probably settle on one of the 4 people above (most likely Rayzor, given how he almost got switched onto), and then... what? We'd have possibly 2 town dead for nothing, scum still gets to kill at night, we're one day closer to MYLO than we would have been.
Someone's gonna say "But BrownBear, Sevryn was town! How dare you say an extra lynch would be a waste!" Yes, NOW that we know sevryn was town, we should have lynched someone else. DId we know sevryn was town at the time? No. The only person I saw who straight-up said Sev was town was Palmar, and I'm suspecting he just said that cause he was tunneled in on me and wanted everyone else to switch to me. Most other people either thought he was scum, or were convinced enough he could be scum to vote for him over a no-lynch. Towards the end of the day it got a little more vague with the switch, but clearly since everyone switched back, everyone preferred Sevryn to nobody, which is not the tack you'd take if you were 100% convinced sev was town.
On August 21 2011 03:54 Palmar wrote: he won't get modkilled if he's about to be lynched anyway, or well, that's the general way things are done.
In this case, ##Vote: Sevryn
Now, let's proceed with a discussion of what actually matters.
On August 21 2011 03:54 wherebugsgo wrote:
On August 21 2011 03:49 xtfftc wrote:
On August 21 2011 03:37 wherebugsgo wrote:
On August 21 2011 03:24 xtfftc wrote: By the way, I have to apologise to supersoft - I just noticed that I didn't post in the voting thread, which was probably the reason he put me on his list (although it's still kind of sloppy).
So I'm going to vote after Sevryn defends himself. Palmar, DropBear and BrownBear are a story that has to develop further.
wtf? why are you afraid of voting now? Is it because others have labeled you as scum already?
I expected supersoft to be superhappy about this but noone else. Sevryn is basically dead, one way or another. No mafia will be dumb enough to protect him anymore and the townies are aware that going after anyone else now would look suspicious. But in case Sevryn gets modkilled, we need to use the opportunity for two town kills.
Then who do you propose we vote for?
My gut says supersoft and QuickSilver but my gut is biased and wants those who go after me dead ^^ Although Supersoft being so cautious when defending Sevryn and yet so aggressive against me and his earlier bandwagonning is something worth remembering.
I want to hear more from DropBear and BlackBear. I do not find DropBear particularly suspicious but he still has to answer the questions raised. BlackBear is suspicious (going too agressively against inactive players, some random accusations) and, unlike DropBear, is a target we might get a majority for.
Hiro, judging by the OP I think we have about 6 hours left.
This is a very random post. Supersoft and QS is a bit of an OMGUS, which he admits.
His post about the Bears (it's BrownBear btw ^^ ) contains nothing to back up his accusations, which are wrong to begin with (wasn't going aggressively against inactives at all, posted in ONE POST "hey we should look at the guys who have only posted a few times and have contributed nothing", then Palmar jumped down my throat and made it seem like it was this huge thing that was the centerpiece of my evil plan to mislead and destroy town). Also, there was no chance I was gonna get lynched at that point. Whatever tho bro, continue to sheep along different paths without ever contributing your own ideas.
On August 22 2011 22:33 Palmar wrote: Yes, I have quite a few questions. are you available for a conversation?
First thing's first. Do you have any major suspicions. If it's up to you and you only, whom would you lynch today?
Sure.
I'm still just as suspicious of Rayzor as I saw two days ago. His defense ("would a mafia say this?") did not convince me because he was in a position when he had to say something like this. However, just like to days ago, I think that he is someone who should be pressured to talk more until he makes another mistake or we are convinced he is town. Even if he is mafia, he is not particularly dangerous at the moment because he can not influence the town at the moment.
This is why at the moment I'd go for Mig. Although he improved after his early post about Sevryn, he did not provide anything substantial. Also, although a lot of people casted their vote for Sevryn and then went to bed, Mig did it in in the middle tha attempted switch to Rayzor.
This is true, he was the first to dump an accusation on Rayzor. Perhaps we should look at Rayzor more, now that I think about it. We did almost lynch him, after all. xtfftc does harp on his accusations of rayzor a LOT from this point out, so I'll gloss over the posts that are literally just "hey guyz i was the first to suspect rayzor did you know I still suspect him?"
Although, he goes to mig as a better candidate. Let me highlight the part of his post that makes no sense to me:
Also, although a lot of people casted their vote for Sevryn and then went to bed, Mig did it in in the middle tha attempted switch to Rayzor.
So you're saying, instead of just voting and going to pass out, he voted late, then decided to switch for the guy you've been pushing all game... and this makes him scummy? I don't follow your logic at all, care to explain this one?
After this post, it basically boils down to VE discovering xtfftc's big slip, and xtfftc frantically defending himself.
VERDICT: He's focused a LOT on Rayzor and is "very suspicious" of him, but has always seemed to find a better lynch candidate (with really shitty logic usually, i might add.) His HUGE EFFING SLIP OMG is pretty damning - it seems he takes the "kill everyone and hope we hit mafia" approach, which I don't like one bit, because it's not a very town-favored viewpoint. He has yet to really contribute anything besides his Rayzor argument, and he hasn't backed that up too well. He's very comfortable sheeping along behind more vocal townies. He wanted stories that were already fully developed to "develop further".
In short, he's very wary of putting his ass on the line, and he's using very misleading and bad logic, and he's slipped.
I'm comfortable lynching him.
##Vote: xtfftc
In the first spoiler, we see the BrownBear explaining his vote for Sevryn. On it's own there's not much to say about it, and if this was the first accusation against Sevryn it would be pretty legit. The problem is that it's not the first accusation against Sevryn. By the time he made this post, Curu and wherebugsgo had already spent hours explaining why Sevryn deserved to die, and embedded in their arguments (as well as others) where the exact same reasons BrownBear listed. All he did was restate what everyone said. The first post of Sevryn's he quoted was the exact post that started the lynch against him (Sevryn), which was first pointed out by Curu and Kurumi. BrownBear wrote a text wall to explain his vote which can be summed up as "I agree with everyone".
And he was here posting in the thread against Palmar when the first accusations on Sevryn were going up as well. Except he tossed his vote on JeeJee with a text wall of analysis (some of which I admit was good). The problem here is that he accused JeeJee (fine) but then never again said a word about him. BrownBear was active for the next ~6 hours and was posting but never against said the name JeeJee. If he really thought JeeJee was mafia, he'd be there trying to push his lynch and get people off the Sevryn wagon. Instead he posted one liners (most against Palmar) and flat out did not say anything of significance to the town.
This is where the mafia hide. BrownBear is guilty of rewriting arguments to justify his votes. He's guilty of waiting until there are votes on a person before switching to them (check the voting history if you don't believe me. Both times he waited until at least 5 people were voting before switching to Sevryn/xtfftc). Both times he restated arguments to justify his vote. Even more incriminating, he never pushed hard to lynch anyone. He would make his vote post then write one liners and hardly touch upon his accusation. He seldom talks about who he thinks is mafia, and most of the time it's only when asked when he tells.
Also, if I'm right about Mig and Rayzor both being mafia, then this just further incriminates him more as he voted for townie in both situations (when he voted for xtfftc, at the time it looked like xtfftc or Mig was going to be lynched). There will be more about Mig and Rayzor later in this post. 2) Dodging Responses. We must be very wary of the BrownBear, because just when you think you have him cornered he barrel rolls to the side and escapes up a tree! Let's observe two of the instances where is dodging is suspect: + Show Spoiler +
On August 20 2011 22:20 Palmar wrote:
BrownBear
So, I decided to try a new tactic this game. Most towns spend day one arguing casually about policies and then lynch a scummy lurker. This is sometimes effective, sometimes kind of weird. This game I decided to just tear up the thread with some super-awesome tunneling on the first scummy fucker I found, and read responses by other people. There are two people who stick out to me as scummy from their reactions to my tunneling. Namely Sevryn and BrownBear. I feel more confident BrownBear is the scum of the two.
There are quite a few things in BrownBear's logic that really scare me. First off, let's take a look at the post that initially raised my suspicions of him:
Posts like this make me sad. Put some effort into the game.
Palmar/DropBear, I'm starting to believe at least one of you isn't, however this could just as easily be two townies chest-pounding day 1, at which point mafia just sits back and watches the fireworks as one or both get lynched, town wastes time, and they don't have to do jack shit.
Point being, Palmar, we know you want us to lynch DropBear. DropBear, we know you want us to not lynch you. Arguing about it just takes up space.
So, DropBear, if you want us to not lynch you, name someone who you think would be a better lynch target, and why. If no better alternative presents itself, I'll vote for you over a no-lynch, and you're the only person really with votes currently on you, so I highly recommend giving us some reasons why your neck should be spared.
And Palmar... you keep making statements like "nard's totally setting me up he's scum" or "dropbear's scum lets investigate by lynching him" without ANY backup. "Your first post was a question to mods ppl know YOU MUST BE COVERING YOUR TRACKS OMG MAFIA" does not constitute evidence. If DropBear's gonna be active and making plans, I'm inclined to NOT lynch him day 1, because it means one less inactive jackass dragging us down. Plus, the more active he is, the sooner he'll slip up if he actually is scum. Of course, lynching is preferable to no-lynching in 99.99% of cases, so I'll vote for him in the end if nobody else comes forth.
But I want to see a better case from you regardless.
Finally, DB's plan: in a perfect world, it'd be great, but I don't think an unofficial mayor will have the power necessary to break ties of more than one vote. Also, how do we know this mayor will be pro-town? How do we know you are pro-town? How do we know if ANYONE'S pro-town at this point?
We don't really, so I think an unofficial "mayor" will just serve to clog the thread further, will draw med-protects away from people who really need them like blues, and will end up not benefitting town in any major way.
I immediately called him out on the scum logic in his posts. I pointed out that one wouldn't have to make a big stretch to understand the bolded sentence as a free pass to anyone who was being active in the thread. Which conveniently enough also clears BB of any suspicion.
He also mentions the possibility of two townies just shouting at each other.
The reason this jumps so much out to me is that I used exactly the same logic as scum on day 1 in SNMMII as scum. I pointed out that two loudmouths were probably just townies shouting at each other and then I suggested that the real threat are the inactive people.
Deflecting lynches onto inactives is mafia's favorite way of playing day 1.
BrownBear's defense of this, is that I'm twisting his words. But can anyone honestly says he understands the bolded sentence in any other way than BrownBear wants to kill off inactive people over people who are active, because the active people will reveal themselves as scum at some point.
On August 20 2011 03:53 BrownBear wrote: I don't think I have... please quote where you're getting that from.
The only thing I can think of is in my large post, where I said if DB is gonna be active I'm less inclined to lynch him. This means I'm less inclined to lynch DB right now, NOT that I'm "heavily advocating lynching a lurker". Please don't put words into my mouth.
Here you go:
On August 20 2011 03:35 BrownBear wrote: If DropBear's gonna be active and making plans, I'm inclined to NOT lynch him day 1, because it means one less inactive jackass dragging us down. Plus, the more active he is, the sooner he'll slip up if he actually is scum. Of course, lynching is preferable to no-lynching in 99.99% of cases, so I'll vote for him in the end if nobody else comes forth.
Well, I read that as any scummy asshole with a plan is going to get a free bye on day 1, because you want to lynch someone inactive?
Or does, the free pass on making plans and blanket statements to avoid the lynch only extend to a specific pool of people?
I asked for something of substance and this is what I got?
Oh, you.
Ok, something you've pulled out of my reasoning that really just wasn't there. You're saying I want to lynch someone inactive. Not necessarily true. Implied, maybe, but NOT what I said. Again, you really need to stop putting words in people's mouths.
What I said there, and what anyone who took 5 seconds to think rationally got out of that sentence before you started spewing shit all over it, is that regardless of what I think about DropBear's alignment (and for the record, I think he's more green than not. Scummy, possibly, but not confirmed scum), I want to see people post more. We're on only 17 pages halfway through the first day, which is kind of sad. I want more content. DropBear's providing it.
I'm for lynching any of the semi-actives - that is, the people who are just contributing one liners and sheeping along to do the bare minimum to fly under the radar. Inactives = people who haven't noticed the game's started yet, people in different time zones who are sleeping, or people who don't care about the game. No reason wasting a vote on them - modkills will get them soon enough. The real area where mafia are probably lurking are the semi-actives - the guys who have posted a few times to be able to say "hey, I was here", but haven't contributed anything of substance or worth to the discussion.
That doesn't include DropBear right now. At the very least, he's provoking discussion both about his silly fake-mayor plan, and about whether or not he's red. He's defending himself and providing some alternate ideas. (Although, DropBear, "I will do so if it becomes necessary"? Really? That's not doing you any favors, bro). Right now, my list of semi-actives include: wherebugsgo, hiro protagonist, Foolishness, and JeeJee (when you read his posts, they don't contribute nearly as much as they do ask questions that go unanswered). I'm open to adding more to that list tho.
So let's start talking about those guys! JeeJee is the most suspicious to me right now: He's posted the most, but I see not all that much in his posts... it looks to me as though he's trying to post while not adding anything of value to town discussion. Just a gut feeling, but I still feel a lot better about lynching him than I do DropBear.
Anyway, long story short: You read things out of my post that didn't exist, those things are the entire basis of your case against me, your case against me sucks, gg, try harder.
##Vote: JeeJee
The first sentence is interesting. He makes a point that he did not say what I called him out for, yet he implied it? What's the difference? The mindset he's working in is the same.
I ask that everyone reads the post above carefully, and preferably often. Look at what he's saying. He's basically throwing a one-line accusation towards JeeJee in an attempt to divert the discussion off himself and DropBear.
The bolded sentence is another one of interest. I don't actually understand how he's going to scumhunt if he actively states that "mafia is amongst the semi-actives". Well sherlock, if you tell us that you're going for semi-active people, won't the mafia just stop being semi-active? And note that he himself is definitely not amongst the semi-actives, so he cannot be mafia, by his theory.
This case against JeeJee is basically just a throw-away case, BB knows well enough that JeeJee is not going to get lynched based on this case, and he's happy to look like he's not supporting a town lynch while throwing an off-vote on some random "semi-active".
So let's start talking about those guys! JeeJee is the most suspicious to me right now: He's posted the most, but I see not all that much in his posts... it looks to me as though he's trying to post while not adding anything of value to town discussion. Just a gut feeling, but I still feel a lot better about lynching him than I do DropBear.
Re-read his posts.
Look at them from the point of view he is scum, understand what motivations he might have for posting like this if he's town.
I think we have a great lynch candidate here town.
BrownBear is scum
##Vote BrownBear
This is Palmar's accusation of BrownBear day 1. I will say right now that Palmar's accusation is a bit iffy as I feel like he's stretching points to make ends meet. But as a whole, he brings up some good points about BrownBear deflecting discussion away from himself and DropBear. When I first read this post I was a bit intrigued. My initial response was "lol okay Palmar...whatever you say" but upon closer reading there are valid points that need to be addressed. And how does our BrownBear respond? Take a look:
On August 21 2011 01:23 BrownBear wrote: Lol Palmar? Keep trying to twist my words bro, it's getting you nowhere. You have no credibility with town right now, and you really only have yourself to blame.
Just give it up. Your crusade against bears has failed.
Switching my vote to Sevryn because that deadline's looming, and he's got the most votes right now.
Of course, why should he respond when he knows that things he say might incriminate him more? I will give him some benefit of the doubt in that it is Palmar, but long accusation posts in which there was a clear attempt of effort put in need to be taken seriously.
I'm interested in why BrownBear even chose to respond in the first place. VisceraEyes has called me mafia twice after I claimed the hit and roleblock, and I ignored him. Why? Frankly because it's VisceraEyes and I don't think he's serious. I figured that if I responded it would only clutter up the thread and lead to an argument. But BrownBear chooses to respond to Palmar with clutter, basically telling him "go home bro".
Another dodge which I overlooked for a long while is this conversation I had with him:
On August 22 2011 12:24 BrownBear wrote: Your accusation of me rings rather hollow - meta builds a pretty shit argument, I'm sorry to say. Also, it was mafia XXX in which you survived that night 1 hit and proceeded to destroy us
Btw, since Palmar is tunneled in on me worse than a minecrafter going after diamond, you do realize he's going to pick up that little nugget you dropped and run with it, so I hope you're damn sure of my scummitude, otherwise this is going to just clog up the day post with useless one-liners from him.
It's nice to be reasonably sure in one townie, though Got any other ideas about potential lynch targets?
Not really. Look at the player list. Who do you think would roleblock and hit me in the same night?
On August 22 2011 12:35 BrownBear wrote: Not me. If I were playing mafia, I'd roleblock and doublestack you to ensure you died night 1. You're far too dangerous to a red team left alive.
Dodge much? Why wouldn't you answer that question and instead choose to immediately defend himself? All he had to do was say "chaoser" or "jackal" or "maybe chaos13 or DropBear or Curu". Or he could have easily taken what Curu said: "Foolishness, I don't think it means anything; plenty of people know about your history, and it's easy to find out from the mafia quiz. Frankly I could see almost anyone roleblocking and hitting you at once, especially if they couldn't agree on a better target". That's a very pro-town response (what Curu wrote) because it's honest and considering alternate possibilities to a situation. But yet, BrownBear chooses to claim innocence.
It's almost like if you caught a 5 year old stealing cookies and then asked him "who do you think stole the cookies?" and he immediately responds "I didn't do it!". ATTENTION: IF YOU ARE VISCERAEYES PLEASE STOP READING HERE AND CONTINUE TO THE SUMMARY AT THE BOTTOM. THE NEXT SECTION IS ALL ABOUT BEHAVIOR ANALYSIS AND "META", OF WHICH YOU CLAIM MEANS NOTHING IN TERMS OF FINDING MAFIA
This quote will lead into my last point:
On August 22 2011 12:24 BrownBear wrote: Your accusation of me rings rather hollow - meta builds a pretty shit argument, I'm sorry to say. Also, it was mafia XXX in which you survived that night 1 hit and proceeded to destroy us
Btw, since Palmar is tunneled in on me worse than a minecrafter going after diamond, you do realize he's going to pick up that little nugget you dropped and run with it, so I hope you're damn sure of my scummitude, otherwise this is going to just clog up the day post with useless one-liners from him.
It's nice to be reasonably sure in one townie, though Got any other ideas about potential lynch targets?
First I want to address his "meta builds a pretty shit argument", because I honestly think he knows better than that. He's been around for a while now and plays a pretty mean game of mafia.
Secondly, he's reasonably sure that I'm townie though. Nothing to say about that. He asks me about potential lynch targets. Of course I have potential lynch targets, everyone does. We all know that it's at this post chaoser and I voted for Mig. I was pleased for him to say this because I thought he was on my side. I believed he would listen to what I say and auto vote with me with simple logic: "well Foolishness is 99% confirmed. Foolishness is known for hunting mafia, particularly lurkers. If he says person X is mafia, person X is probably mafia". Boy was I in for a surprise.
3) Failure to comment about Mig. For those that haven't figured it out yet, I deliberately laid a trap for the mafia day 2. I was very certain that Mig was mafia after chaoser's initial accusation so I decided to vote for Mig and go afk. I knew chaoser was going to be afk soon based on his posting schedule as well.
What's the trap? Assume for a minute that Mig is mafia (just go with it for a second here, I'll comment about this assumption later on). Mafia won't let one of their own die day 2, so at some point we can either expect someone to come in and help defend Mig OR for the topic to derail and shift the focus on a townie. And the latter is what happened. At the beginning of the day everyone was discussing Mig and quite a few people were on board with chaoser and I. This is reflected in the fact that 3 others voted for Mig in this time.
What happened then? Hours upon hours later, Mig was just a secondary topic to the newfound suspect: xtfftc. Attention shifted to xtfftc and it was immediately clear to me that Mig was probably not going to get lynched because everyone just kinda forgot about him. Now it's what happened in between that's very important.
Mig correctly pointed out in his defense, "If I'm mafia, why has nobody come in to defend me? Am I so bad that the mafia team has left me to die?" A valid point, but he brings this up multiple times (which I believe is an indication he's mafia, but this is about BrownBear). Now I didn't comment on this at the time, but the mafia did not need to defend Mig because they distracted the town with a different target: xtfftc.
I advise you all to reread day 2 if you have the time. When you do, you will notice that there are a handful of people who refuse to comment about Mig. This is important. Why, as a townie, would you ignore one of the most prominent lynch suspects for the day? Multiple people wanted to kill Mig, why would you disregard that and shift focus elsewhere? This is precisely what mafia did, and this is why I was sure xtfftc was town. Since nobody was defending Mig, I knew attention would shift to another candidate and the mafia would run with that.
Here is the list of people that never voiced their opinion about Mig:
BrownBear, RayzorFlash, Hiro Protagonist, Vain.
A few people half ignored the Mig but not to the same extent as the above four. I jotted down their names as well:
Barundar, Erandorr, Greymist (who is now Insert_Freq).
This is why I was okay with the Hiro lynch yesterday, because he was on the top of the list. And no, before you say, I'm not claiming that these lists are perfect and that I've found the entire mafia team. But I bet that there's at least 3 mafia in these 7 people, and my guess is it's BrownBear, Rayzor, and Barundar. With Mig as mafia that's 4 mafia I found. This is why I was adamant about killing Mig. If he flips red I guarantee there are mafia in those lists I just wrote.
This is also why I kept telling people to look at the big picture and put the pieces together. Everything fits together perfectly. Mig is mafia, he uses the "why is nobody defending me" in his defense because he knows the mafia is deliberately shifting town focus onto someone else (xtfftc). The people who are doing that are most likely those who aren't voicing their opinion about Mig. Mig acts like he's helpless and nobody is on his side (anyone else ever notice how concise his defense posts are?)
Remember that this is mafia, the pieces of the puzzle do not fit together in an arbitrary manner. I know some of you will probably say that I'm just throwing together random happenings and this is all just coincidence, but I encourage you to go reread any mafia game upon seeing the mafia list. It will be immediately clear why those people were mafia and how they were all linked together in the process. That's why I am able to say the things I've been saying with such certainty. I found the big picture and the majority of the pieces that go with it.
For those that aren't convinced Mig is mafia, at the very least this shows that BrownBear is not willing to comment on big town issues. Why is he blatantly ignoring all posts against the person with the highest or second highest vote count? Why does he refuse to comment about him? Simple, BrownBear does not care about the town, nor does he care about who's getting lynched. The only other explanation is that he is so convinced that xtfftc is mafia that he cannot focus about anyone else. Based on his posting history we can all agree that's not going to be true.
If you don't believe me, go filter BrownBear's posts and ctfl + f 'Mig'. He only mentions his name in passing "looks like Mig or xtfftc is getting lynched today". No discussion about whether Mig might be mafia or not.
Note: this next part is important. Take a look at BrownBear's post when I posted the 'trap card' meme:
On August 25 2011 05:48 Curu wrote: BrownBear doesn't have a single original post or opinion after the throwaway on JeeJee. Yeah you post a wall of text everyday, but it's a post-by-post analysis on one single person. You criticize Palmar for tunnelvision but look at yourself dude, except you don't even seem interested in trying to push your one tunneled person while Palmar is actually trying to get them lynched.
How is deciding I think xtfftc is scum, posting analysis on him, then reading everyone else's analysis, deciding mine's still better, and sticking to it tunnelvision? Are you saying the arguments against hiro were correct? Sure, some of them had merit, but in the end I thought the case against him was extremely weak, and my case was better. Mig's got a stronger case, I wouldn't mind him as a lynch target tomorrow, but I'm still gonna be pushing xtfftc until a better candidate comes along. That's not tunnelvision. Tunnelvision is when you're argument against someone boils down to:
1. He's scum because he called me out on my scummy behavior (classic OMGUS btw) 2. He's scum because I think he is.
And then posting one-liners all game along the lines of "Let's lynch Player X" while offering NOTHING ELSE constructive.
What you call "not being interested in pushing your case" is actually me just being drowned out by a metric buttload of spam.
Also, I really don't see how Palmar is trying to get me lynched - or even really trying in this game anymore. He basically ragequit with this little gem:
On August 25 2011 01:11 Palmar wrote: Yeah I know.
I'm generally active, but not like I've been this game. Thing is, I don't yet know how to convince an unresponsive town without PMs. This is the first time as town where I want to be listened to and get completely ignored. In all those games I've played recently I've had my way, and town has done very well for it.
For some reason, mafia influenced or not, this town is different than others. People here refuse to listen to reason, and lynch based on what, but not on how. The ridiculousness reached new heights when people started accusing me of being scum for the crime of being right.
I'll take a step back, I think I've made my thoughts pretty clear, I've built my cases and submitted my reads. The rest of you can do what you wish with them, I'm not posting unless necessary now.
(ps don't ragequit yet Palmar, I know you can actually play this game, and if you drop the tunnel and cut the spam, you can really help town win. We still have a very real chance at turning this around, but we need active players like you to help!)
That is the first (yes, the first) time BrownBear has voiced an opinion about Mig. And what is the first thing he said? "Mig's got a [strong] case against him". Wow, how convenient for you to say that considering YOUVE NEVER EVEN SAID ANYTHING ABOUT MIG IN THE PAST 72 HOURS! And now all of a sudden you think the case against him is good? Where were you when chaoser was accusing him, or when Mig and I were going back and forth? You were definitely here because you were posting in the thread. Nevermind I can answer that for you: you don't care about the town (and that's regardless if Mig is mafia or not).
I imagine that BrownBear must have an expression on his face similar to this: I have now provided all the necessary information needed. As a town, you now have the tools to hunt the BrownBear and prevent him from escaping. Together, united, you can capture the BrownBear and once again bring peace to our town! SUMMARY Jimminy Christmas that was long. Let's recap on everything I have said since I know there's bound to be a few people who are too lazy to read through all of this:
1) BrownBear is mafia 2) BrownBear's vote posts are just restating already said arguments. He's never voiced his own opinion. Furthermore he never pushes who he's voting for. He makes his vote post, then spams one liners. 3) BrownBear has been extremely dodging and defense. He flat out refuses to respond to Palmar even with Palmar writes something good. He is very insistent that he is innocent. 4) BrownBear has refused to say anything with regards to Mig (until just now). If he was town he would be sure to voice his opinion on one of the top lynch candidates. He does not care about the town and this is evident because he has ignored the case against Mig. 5) If Mig is mafia, then BrownBear (and a few others) implicitly defended him by purposely switching town focus onto xtfftc (and then Hiro). They did this by not sharing their opinions about Mig and instead wrote paragraphs about why xtfftc (or Hiro) should have been lynched. I will still advocate that Mig should be the next lynch. But if you are too put off by his defense then BrownBear must die.
On a random note I believe Pyo to be mafia as well. Someone should take a look at him in the near future.
I read this in its entirety. I will gladly lynch either one of Mig or BB. Whoever town thinks is most scummy. I think of the two it's BB. I can't wrap my head around Mig yet...going back to reread the cases against him again. As I recall they were heavily based on meta. But unfortunately I admittedly hardly ever return to previous games to check the validity of meta statements unless I was in the game personally. Call it an investment of time I'm not willing to make in most cases.
I'm going to do so and return further informed.
VE uses a false dichotomy to insinuate that only one of BB/Mig can be mafia.
This is a mistake. I was only referring to the fact that we can only lynch one of them. At this point, I had started to doubt my town read on Mig and I hadn't yet gone back to reread the games Foolish was basing his meta read on. I was keener on BB because unlike Palmar's case, Foolish's case was actually good and I was convinced.
Now, I'd like to clear up that I don't think meta is useless. Far from it, but I don't think it's enough to base a lynch off of alone.
I don't blame you guys if you lynch me for my inactivity. I've been playing a LOT of mafia recently, on a couple different sites also + Show Spoiler +
I've been working on a podcast...it's cool. Go to Nerd National to check it out!
other stuff, so I know my activity has been lacking.
But I'm not scum.
The reason I was so late on the nard lynch was because I had a town read on him before (see my post to that effect) and to be honest, I wanted to help town lynch who town wanted to lynch in case he WAS scum and the scumteam wanted to try another vote-switch. Ultimately, I'm glad I did.
Now, I'll be back with my reads later. This was just a defense post, and should be taken as such. I'm filtering a few people presently and I'll write up all my thoughts.
Last medic protect chaoser please. At least mafia needs to double stack to kill him then…
WBG I can’t really see what in Vain’s posts you think makes him town. I agree it’s suspicious that both pyo and Bum goes out to vote him instead of Nard, but his defence is non existent, and he couldn’t even fabricate scum reads yesterday.
In any case, I can’t argue against you voting for who you think is most likely scum. As long as you don’t let mafia get away with a no lynch, we get more information if people actually have to take a stance and provide a reason for their votes, than if we have a settled lynch.
Oh look Nard is Scum (this is my I told you so moment from the hiro lynch) I want BB to die now. And I say BB for a reason. Ignore everything confusing out of Bum for the last day and just focus on the shit out of BB. I actually wrote a pretty long wall of text on him just before he got replaced, and there is no question in my mind that he is SCUM.
I just filtered Vain and I just remembered why he is on my list as well. Filtering that guy makes my brain hurt. Both of those make such a great target for any vigis we have left.
On August 30 2011 18:43 Lucidity wrote: WBG and VE for last 2 Mafia.
Lucidity for best one-liner suspicion / Palmar impersonation.
Srsly Lucidity, I responded to WBG because of his case...you really think he would've posted a case like that about a scummate? What's YOUR suspicion of me based on? WBG complied with a case against me...a loose one...but he at least backed up his suspicion with reason.
On August 30 2011 11:51 Varpulis wrote: damn i write slowly.
On August 30 2011 11:37 wherebugsgo wrote: And of course, lynching vain, even if he is mafia, gives us no information because he's said nothing. There are no links between vain and anyone really.
I've got an idea! let's lynch mafia because they're mafia, not because of the information that we'll get.
If we're working on the assumption that both vain and bum are mafia, then I say bum is the better choice because lynching bum gives us information.
How hard is that to comprehend? Forget my thoughts for a second here and just reason that out.
Lynching vain gives us info too though. Maybe I'm just not seeing it but how does lynching bum give us more info than lynching vain?
What info does lynching vain give us?
I can't see at any point, where vain has been linked to anyone. Lynching bum first will tell us Pyo is almost definitely mafia.
I guess it's just a formality on that, since if we think bum is mafia we don't need to see him flip to know Pyo is mafia, but w/e.
Also, if we lynch bum first and he turns out to be the framer then what?
What does bum have anything to do with me?
Actually, I think it's about time I just go ahead and finally claim... I'm a DT:
Inquisitor - welcome to TL Mafia XLIV you are Inquisitor Agmar, while you are fairly young, your actions against the cult of the Weeping Thorns have quickly ascended you to a position of importance, while you are not the most skilled combatant, in this case stealth and investigation, not violence is what is called for. Every night you may investigate a player and see if he is Innocent or Guilty . However ever since you decapitated the Mummy Prince Ozimandious in his tomb and were infected with plagueworms you aren't sure your investigations are reliable, as the pain may have wrapped your perception of reality.
Now, I was going to wait a little bit longer to post this (I've been sitting on it for a while now - was waiting to confirm my sanity before saying anything), but I'm convinced that Wherebugsgo is scum, probably Godfather.
all of his lynch candidates/pushes have been wrong... sevryn, hiro, iGrok, etc. He only went after Mig when it was extremely likely that he was going to be lynched sooner or later.
His long analysis of Mig is pretty damning. Most of his arguments about Mig are really thin and hinge on WIFOM assuming Mig is "a really good player". It was also completely over-kill in terms of what was necessary to convince people at that time. Also just filtering his post you might be convinced that he was the one who initiated the lynch of Mig when in fact he's just going along with it.
throughout the game he's been working his way into a leadership position for town, however in reality he's been pushing people that are now confirmed innocent or was just following along with the Mig bandwagon.
And now we get to your analysis of bum, which is kind of "huh? really?" Not really sure how you get "i framed Vain" from "I assumed vain would be the good lynch to certify chaoser faster, but if hes gonna get shot tonight anyway it doesn't make a difference to me, both vain and nard are scum."
In fact, that little translation was probably your biggest slip up:
Translation here:
"I assumed that we could lynch vain, who I framed, so that he would flip green. Then we could lynch chaoser tomorrow, and because I'm mafia I know he'd flip blue. During the night we'd kill two other townies in the case vain gets lynched.
However, I don't give a shit because I know they're both town, so we can lynch nard instead of vain, chaoser will die tonight in this case and then we do a mislynch anyway tomorrow by lynching vain."
so bumatlarge is mafia and knows that both vain and nard are town? Huh, really? how can you even say that? It was pretty clear that Nard is scum thanks to Foolishness. I suppose the possibility of a frame still exists for Vain, but that just seems really far-fetched since it would almost certainly be safer for the mafia to frame one of the scum to appear green than hoping someone happened to investigate your target.
I encourage all of you to actually go back and read all of WBG's posts and think about what he's been posting and the timing of his posting.
You are a dt... Who thinks that his prime suspect is the godfather... lol
So who did you check what nights and have you established your sanity? And why would you claim during nighttime when no mafia in their right mind would ever shoot the most hardcore lurker?
EPT![[image loading]](http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Y2cN7mKANaY/TVgSfXr783I/AAAAAAAAArA/aSTW4kc1l50/s1600/Brown+bear+C+Ivan+Seryodkin+copy.jpg)
