EPTTL Mafia 5 [Game Over]
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
Ace
United States16096 Posts
| ||
|
Ace
United States16096 Posts
| ||
|
Ace
United States16096 Posts
| ||
|
Ace
United States16096 Posts
| ||
|
Ace
United States16096 Posts
| ||
|
Ace
United States16096 Posts
On March 18 2009 04:48 semioldguy wrote: The other reason we can't tell which side an incarcerated player is on simply by looking at kill power, is that kill power isn't going to change half of the time from a single Mafia being removed. So we would need to rely on a role-check anyway. which is why DTs are shit  I'm going to explain this in depth in a few minutes | ||
|
Ace
United States16096 Posts
So far, none of the mayor/sheriff candidates are getting my vote based on their plans. Not because their plans are bad per se, but because no one who is running is addressing a few critical flaws that the town has to deal with. Let's get this straight out off the bat: Mafia have a a very big advantage this game. I'm going to explain it you right now. First of all, we need to understand how DT's work along with their impact on the structure of the game. A quick reminder: Detective - You may ask if a specific clue points to a specific person or if a specific sentence is a clue and receive a yes or no answer. You may also, four times during the game, ask for the role of a specific player. You may not use both during one day and you may not use more than two role checks consecutively. Realize this and remember it - DTs can only use FOUR rolechecks in the game, and they can't even use them back to back. That's 12 RCs total but not consecutive. Any plan that involves confirming people has to involve DTs with the exception of behavior and clue analysis. Basically, there is no confirmation process this game, unless it's limited to very few people. Even if you had a line of people to confirm it would take forever because DTs can't use consecutive role checks. Let's also remember that this is even worse if a Detective somehow dies. But it get's worse... Sheriff and Mayor will hide the roles of the elected players so that a Detective role check will show them as Sheriff/Mayor and nothing else. This is the actual killer right here. In past Mafia games, elections were crucial to Town and Mafia because of not only the power they had, but protection from Night deaths. With Vigis being nerfed, Mafia don't have to worry about the latter too much. This is partly why they are a bit stronger but there's more. Like I said, in past elections getting Mayor/Pardoner was critical. However for the Mafia it was VERY risky - A DT could just find you and out you. This was of course, just as risky for the DT - he'd surely die at some point in the game, but now Mafia have to go through layers of possible medic prot to get him/her and you can see how psychological this little game of cat and mouse becomes. The Mafia can run and hope to kill a DT outing them, or hope not to get checked. The Dt is finding them, has to figure out a way to live and out them. All of this of course takes time, but not too long in game day terms. Even so, if the Mafia got the Mayor/Pardoner seat the idea of not letting an influential Townie get it could be seen as a Pyrrhic victory. With the addition of a Godfather, this was put back into balance for the Mafia since it would take more than a DT rolecheck to get them if they could manage to get their GF elected which is a risky move in itself. In this game there is no such risk. DTs can't even identify normal mafia if they get elected. In essence, there is no way short of clue and behavior analysis to figure out if an elected position is Mafia. Any plan revolving around confirmation with these 2 elected roles and DTs are out the window. PERIOD. The DTs this game are literally working alone until they can get a large circle on their own or hope to connect with other DTs. No elected official is to be given ANY critical info. They can come up with and follow plans but thats all there is to it. The DTs can't confirm them, and even if they could with rolechecks being shot to shit it would take too much time. Detectives - you have to play this game with an extremely watchful eye. This time it's not just about investigating vet players, but choosing your checks ever more critically. Sheriff/Mayor - I'm running too. I'm not going to lie and say I have some grand plan that just won't work like everyone else, but I'll let it be known that as always I'll point out any fatal mistakes that will kill the town, and I've been known to make good decisions at key times. I'd rather be Mayor though, because Sheriff seems like a waste of time for me (so far). I'll also put my Mayor vote for Mr.Baby Hands. I've played numerous games with him and he's shown himself to know how to catch people in traps just as well as I can. He also has some sort of weird, sixth sense too. No one else seems to have anything that jumps out to me that makes me want to vote for them. | ||
|
Ace
United States16096 Posts
1.) Whoever claims vigi can't be mafia or the plan is dead. Even if the DT could check them, thats 1 RC down the drain and doesn't even get us the real Vigi we need. Assuming this doesn't happen... 2.) Now we have to hit a suspected mafia, not a sure fire mafia. Why do this early in the game? Unless we get an RC it's useless. We'd need to wait for more clue analysis. Involving DTs means spreading out already thin Medic protection, which means Mafia is going to rape everyone else very fast. 3.) Assuming we have a legit Vigi and he hits a mafia...now what? Everyone send in their roles to him? Mafia doesn't have to fear another hit from him, there are only so many blue roles that they most can just claim Towny and go on with their lives. Once again DTs will take forever to sort out the liars and may very well be out of Rolechecks at this point. Mafia wins the long term battle on this one. The Vigi plan isn't going to help until much later in the game when the town doesn't need too much Detective help. | ||
|
Ace
United States16096 Posts
On March 18 2009 10:20 Qatol wrote: Ok a few things. First of all, Ace: Rolechecks can be used consecutively, just not 3 times in a row. Reread the role. Checking people can happen faster than you indicated. Second of all: There is an easy way of getting around the GF posing as a vigi idea (which is mucking up a potential vigi plan). Don't just rolecheck the vigi. The vigi AND the town knows where the hit went. All we have to do is have the vigi confirm that his hit went through and then look for the clue. Why the clue? Because vigis can be CLUECHECKED. If the town can't find a clue when they know who the clue has to link to, well we are in a lot more trouble than I thought. Now the mafia can try to fake this, but it is unlikely that the mafia they want is actually linked to the hit they want. It is probably worth thinking about rolechecking the vigi as well just in case, but really, unless the mafia get pretty lucky, they can't control how the hit will go. Ok even if they can use them up to 4 times - there is a limit. What if the town has to check multiple people? How do we do it? The DTs can't coordinate and there is no way to know who needs to be checked first. The DTs are gimped on this one and there is no way around it. There *is* no way of getting around it. And this isn't just talking about the GF - it's about any Mafia really. It goes back to the same idea of having to use DTs and risking them or going off an even worse move of hoping the mafia mess up. but ok let's assume the GF fakes vigi. GF comes out and says he's vigilante and will hit X player at night. Let's not even begin to think how we've come this conclusion that X should be hit. If X is 100% mafia we shouldn't be using the Vigi hit anyway. This means X has to be likely mafia. Which means he can be Miller/Townie/Blue or whatever. As long as he isn't 100% mafia, the GF just hits him and it goes through - how does the town avoid this? Even with a cluecheck how do you know who the hit gets linked to from the Mafia side? | ||
|
Ace
United States16096 Posts
On March 18 2009 10:29 Caller wrote: From past experience mafia rarely claims vigi, if ever. And one can tell if a kill is mafia or vigilante, usually-mafias in the past have been themed, while vigilantes are of a different theme. More importantly, mafias will give themselves away, especially if the targets in question are inactives or highly suspicious. For instance, if Tim is highly suspicious, and we send Bob after Tim, if Mafia tries to fake the kill it will show up, and "save" us a vigilante kill from revealing a suspicious person. On the other hand, if a legitimate vigilante kills Tim, we have our confirmed Vig. Regardless of whatever role the person hit was. At which point, the vigilante gets incarcerated (which protects him) and can arrange the roles. If Mafia fakes, it is likely that they will stick out like a sore thumb. Sure, it may add some confusion, but at however many mafia they sacrifice. More importantly, people with roles tend not to be inactives. And even if mafia claims Towny, it doesn't matter, because now we have the ability to coordinate night actions, and we can limit the pool of suspected mafia to that of just the townies (unless Godfather impersonates a blue, which although smart, if he's not careful, he may give himself away very easily). And we don't have to rolecheck everybody, we can just use selective information and the use of roles to try and trip up mafia impersonating as blues. edit: yeah I know I have finals, but I'm taking a break from studying. I hate calculus. Well past experience isn't going to help on this one - the rules of the game are different. With the plan these guys have come up with, Mafia claiming vigi is really a valid concern. Even without mafia interference the plan has some big holes but we can't just assume Mafia won't try. Your example actually helps my argument - Tim is highly suspicious. If Tim doesn't flip Mafia the town has just FUCKED up. Bob can be Mafia or legit Vigi but we won't know without solid clue analysis. Even if the clues are worded in a way that shows bob as a vigi(which it won't btw since there are barely any big codenames to go on so far, and even if there were we'd be trying this too early to be able to seperate Mafia codenames from Vigi codenames) what do we do now? Send in all the roles to Bob, who absorbs tons of medic prot and even if he lives now has to sort out liars and coordinate DTs and use up all the rolechecks on the liars? All of you are making the classic mistake you make every game - you look at the good side of the "what if" example and always forget the other side, which more than likely will happen. This time the good side isn't even that good as it's a plan with so many flaws. Very high risk for moderate gain. The best bet for this plan to work is to hope that Bob is a legit Vigi that also happens to be running for Sheriff/Mayor. Even then it probably won't work out well. | ||
|
Ace
United States16096 Posts
On March 18 2009 10:39 Caller wrote: As far as I know, mafia doesn't choose which clues pop out for kills. So if you cluecheck the person that kills the GF's target, and it doesn't match up with the Godfather, the godfather is screwed. That's a 1/10 chance of a successful deception, and if the clue is blatantly obvious it's a mafia (i.e. it appears twice or is of the same theme as mafia) the godfather is screwed again. So it is very unlikely the GF will go through with the hit. Keep in mind also that the GF has to target a suspicious character, or an inactive-either case, the hit, if it goes through, will help us whittle suspect lists while maintaining Town KP. If GF targets an important person or whatnot, he's exposing himself to massive amounts of flak. And why would GF necessarily roleclaim Vigilante? As soon as the GF's clues appear twice, he's dead. This applies to any mafia who tries to fake DT/Vig: the clues will get them much more likely than not. The risk just isn't worth it. As for the DTs rolechecking, we don't need to rolecheck until we have the whole Vigilante mess organized. At which point, the Vigilante can organize rolechecks. But how will you know they killed the GF's target? Thats what I'm saying. Do we know that the Mafia when they send in their hit list assign them specifically or is it just one big list of names? And regardless of this how do you know whoever is writing clues is going to match them up like this? There aren't any codenames yet so it's even worse to even try it because when we do this the Vigi codenames are going to be mixed in with the Mafia codenames and that's even if we GET any codenames. Once again you're assuming way too much. Um the GF faking Vigi, if he wanted doesn't mean a cluecheck = GG for him. First we'd have to find the clue. Second, if the person he hits because of being highly suspect flips non-mafia no one can even accuse him of anything since it's the town that helped him/her in this decision. Once again you keep forgetting how many hoops the town has to jump through just for this plan to even be decent. | ||
|
Ace
United States16096 Posts
On March 18 2009 10:43 Qatol wrote: Confirm someone and coordination gets a lot easier. Why do you say this? If we get someone we think is 100% mafia, why not hit him if it isn't before the lynch? You don't. However, I checked with Chuiu: The mafia cannot control this. If the GF picks vigi in order to muck up this plan, it means they cannot fake medic or DT or BG and muck up another plan. Furthermore, chuiu has to randomly pick the GF for that hit otherwise all the GF can say is that he missed. 1.) Who are you going to coordinate through? I keep asking this and no one can give a solid answer except "a Vigi" which as we've seen has a ton of problems and takes a lot of time. 2.) If we get someone that is 100% mafia, save the vigi hit and lynch the mafia the next day or on a double lynch unless it's like some ultra crucial timing that reduces mafia KP. Why waste a vigi hit? 3.) the mafia never have been able to control what clues they get, or how they get linked. What I was saying is that as the town you don't know who the mafia are so it's pointless to try and assume how the clues are done. 4.) Why can't the mafia fake medic/bg/dt? Just because the Godfather picked Vigi? Thats not making sense. It's in their best interest to make the DTs run out of rolechecks so they can just 1a2a3a the town in the midgame. How can the GF call the miss if he's faking Vigi? He can't miss | ||
|
Ace
United States16096 Posts
On March 18 2009 10:48 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: We don't even have to use DT's to check if the vigi hits a red. We won't send roles in unless the vigi hits a red. The GF can't fake a red hit (if all vigis are calling their shots beforehand like we seem to be in agreement a bout). If we exhaust all our vigi hits without hitting a red we still have a short list of vigis we can then DT check with either clue checks, role checks, or may just clue analysis as Caller explained. If more than 3 vigis role claim, that's probably better than a vote count list would be for winnowing out a mafia. right...I think you're getting it somewhat. This plan relies on hitting MAFIA. If no mafia get hit, it now comes down to ok, how do we confirm our vets? Use DTs. Which means we use up even more time and rolechecks. Mafia lose 1 guy, town has to spread medic protection on these guys and the mafia wins out in the longterm because Dts are using up even more rolechecks. Then you still have to figure out how to even find the DTs and get them to communicate. see the problem now? | ||
|
Ace
United States16096 Posts
On March 18 2009 10:50 Qatol wrote: How is hitting Townie Tim any worse than lynching Townie Tim? It isn't. All that happens is we have someone roleclaiming vigi that has used his hit. Yes, he could be mafia. That will be taken into account. However, does it really hurt the town? Of course not. Tim was a suspect. Why does Bob have to absorb tons of medic protection? If he is confirmed, he can coordinate that.... ... Vigis don't have a lot of shots this game. If a Vigi hits Tim the innocent Townie he is no longer confirmed. End of the plan. If Bob the Vigi turns out to hit Mafia, then all medic prot goes to Bob(who can still be killed) after he's been jailed for a night and everyone else gets killed. Sure, Bob can pass on his unsorted list of liars to someone else - but who does he pass it on to? He can't confirm anyone himself because da da da - he's just a vigi! see how many holes this plan has even if you get everything right by chance? | ||
|
Ace
United States16096 Posts
On March 18 2009 10:59 Qatol wrote: 1. You coordinate through the vigi that you JUST CONFIRMED with your mafia hit + cluecheck. Alternatively, you can coordinate through a medic/innocent combo from a save. 2. Why not use the vigi hit? Would you rather risk the vigi dying? 3. I have already addressed this. 4. They can. However, they show up to a check if they do it. This plan only needs checks if it is close to succeeding. Otherwise they can be used elsewhere. GF can't miss, but a vigi can if the mafia hits the target too. So the GF can "miss" if he's faking vigi 1.) what CLUECHECK? The Vigi is going to show up the same night as Mafia codenames IF we even get codenames. So how are you going to know which is which? You can't. Then you still have to find the right clue. And you still are assuming that your highly suspect person is going to flip Mafia. If he doesn't thats it - it's over. 2.) The vigi wouldn't risk dying if none of us know who he is. I'd rather something happen in the day that makes someone plainly obviously mafia, Vigi hitting that guy, and then finding a way to prove it was him rather than going to the reverse option which is just terrible in this game. 3.) actually you haven't. We know the mafia can't control what clues they get - they never have in any mafia game. But since you don't know who the mafia are, you can't tell who the clues point to or how they are done. So when you throw the Vigi in there you just have one big mess and no way of figuring it out. 4.) how do you know the mafia are going to be checked by faking another role? Remember, the DTs are going to have to check every other list too, and this says nothing about how many rolechecks they will have left at that point. Faking blue roles is a very legit strat this game. and once again - the GF will never miss. He's better off hitting if he wants the town's trust. If his target is Mafia, which he could never hit then he would have never fake claimed vigi to begin with and let the plan continue so they could just ruin it later down the line. | ||
|
Ace
United States16096 Posts
On March 18 2009 11:06 Qatol wrote: I argue that none of your "holes" matter at all. If the vigi misses, oh well. We still hit a high probability target. We used a vigi the way a vigi should be used. This plan isn't something that MUST happen. It is an option. Furthermore, the vigi can still get confirmed if the town takes out the GF. Alternatively, the other vigi can step up and take HIS shot. Oops! He missed again. Except there are only 2 vigis. We get a free set of roleclaims for the vigi role. Is that really a bad thing? If the vigi hits mafia, he gets to coordinate medic protection. Why would he put all of the medics on himself? He forces the mafia to play guessing games with KP. Last time I checked that was a good thing? There is no martyr this game, no vet,no jacks, and very few medics. There are only so many guesses to go around. But ok, go ahead and ignore my warnings. If the vigi misses on a high probability target, now we have to hope we kill the GF and that the original vigi wasn't a normal mafia faking it. Then we also have to hope another vigi steps up, takes his shot, and that the guy he hit flips mafia thereby confirming him instead. but if he misses neither of them are confirmed, 1 person is surely lying if the GF claimed also, and then we trust BOTH of them even though we don't know which one is legit. Yes, let's go with this idea. | ||
|
Ace
United States16096 Posts
On March 18 2009 11:14 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: If the vigi turns out to be confirmed good the unsorted list will probably yield him some sort of goodies - if everyone does their duty and sends in their role the mafia will have to fake role claim at least one of every blue or there will be someone to pass it on toward. He'll be able to check at least some stuff I imagine and yeah that makes him a big target but this has still been a legitimate goal of the town every game despite the risk it carries. Even if the mafia use 100% of their KP to take him out, that's a ton of KP to kill one person and helps out the town a bunch in catching up to the bad guys. If the mafia use all their KP to take the guy out the info is lost. Remember it takes some DAYS to even get the info out to DTs to sort it. He'll be dead by the second night he's out. The mafia have more to gain than the town by faking every blue role. Even at the loss of 3 members, the town loses all their info, half or even more of the legit DT rolechecks and a few days on a plan that at best gets us less than even to where the mafia are now. | ||
|
Ace
United States16096 Posts
@Inf: You know if I'm against some plan in a Mafia game and if you assume I'm innocent - there has to be a really good reason right? Look at the plan and tell me after going through all the "if this happens, and then if this and this and this" happens and it all comes out what is the point? It's like no one realizes this game is designed so that there is no way to have early central organization as easy as before, but you guys are going to kill yourselves and all the rest of us in trying. right now it's better to see how the this election and the first day plays out while letting the DTs do whatever it is they want to do. | ||
|
Ace
United States16096 Posts
| ||
|
Ace
United States16096 Posts
On March 18 2009 12:56 Caller wrote: never mind, it was deja vu. T_T as for the vig plan, yeah. Although to be honest, I don't quite understand what's wrong even if the hit is a non-mafia. Again, the clues determine a lot, and if the clues match, the person is either definitely vig or definitely mafia. Otherwise, the person is definitiely mafia, and he dies. To prove that a person is vig, one quite simply puts medic protection (not incarcerates) him. If his name appears in the clues again, he's mafia. If not, likely he's a vig. At which point he can be lynched/incarcerated. There are just so many ways for the mafia fake to go wrong I doubt it would be worth it. sigh here we go again...ok besides all the holes I've pointed out before let's take another hypothetical example. Mr.A claims he's the vigi and wants to kill highly suspected player Suspect X. For now ignore the fact that Mr.A could be mafia/Gf and lying Let's also ignore any DT tie-ins just yet. Suspect X flips Innocent. Doesn't matter if he's blue or green. Mr.A still claims he's innocent so we look for the clues. 1.) If we get codenames for Mafia this game, how do you know which ones link to Mr.A? Everyone is assuming that if Mr.A sends in a kill, the clues based on Suspect X's death link to Mr.A. This is what I've been asking all along, but Qatol's answer from Chuiu doesn't address this. 2.) WHO is going to verify the clue fits? The only person that can do this are DTs but you guys said you don't want to involve them - so once again it comes down to whoever can get the clue to fit best to the codename. Purely subjective and can go wrong. 3.) Chuiu said he's using the "whoever sends in their kills first" ultra broken technique to determine hits. What if the mafia sent in their hits first and it's the same target as the vigi? The vigi comes out, saying his hit missed, he still has one and we're back to square one with no new info and still an unconfirmed vigi. 4.) Most importantly, once again if we get codenames along with #1 how are you going to seperate Mafia codenames from the Vigi codenames since they'll all appear on the same night. Even more what is to stop a mafia from claiming they are a vigi once a clue is linked to them. Remember unlike past games Vigis can act on Night 1 in this game, so there is no clear cut list of which kill goes where. It's impossible to tell. This plan can't even begin to work until way later in the game when more information is passed around and a few key deaths have been coughed up. It's also the reason I'm not voting for any of the other candidates - all of you say you'll do this and that but none of have shown any in depth analysis and willpower to break a plan that looks good on paper. No one can be confirmed if they are elected. So anyone with a "plan" this game is just as good as Mafia. So my vote is more out of I'd rather have some of you not be in office because of the danger you've already presented. | ||
| ||
