EPTTL Mafia XXVII
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On June 05 2010 07:08 Qatol wrote: But getting you killed is so much fun! It's obvious why he always does it. EXACTLY. | ||
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I'ma accept the moral victory for scaring him :3. (also, ace-kins, amazon is selling pre-orders for GW2 and I expect you there). So yeah, lets read some rules and think up STRATEGIES, brb. | ||
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On June 10 2010 07:20 flamewheel wrote: Hmm... Semi-open setups are tricky, since we know what roles there can be but not the number. However, since there is a given number of mafia we should be able to roughly estimate what kind of blue powers (and/or extraneous mafia powers) there are in the game. 17 people and four mafia, so the mafia comprise 23.5% of the town's population. Normally in Incognito's games, the mafia comprise a flat 20% of the total population and blue roles are adjusted based on that, and given the fact that there are more varied roles than in these more 'standard' games, I'd assume we'd have some of those. Let's see... Incognito likes Mad Hatters. I can't remember if that is his or Qatol's (perhaps both?) favourite role, but most likely there will be one Hatter. Obviously, it'd be ludicrous to say that there isn't a medic, though the question is whether or not there's one medic or two. I'm split between the numbers, since either could work... A self-saving medic is way more powerful, and that would mean there would probably only be one medic. However, Incognito has ninja'ed in the fact that medics cannot save themselves, so two medics is probable. Between the Watcher/Stalker and DT there's more likely to be a DT. Watchers and Stalkers are cute roles, and I'd count them as half a blue role. There'll probably be one of either. There is a Veteran, most likely. Since it is a passive blue role, I'd count it as a half. Because you can't have too many blue roles without balancing Mafia powers as well... There will probably be a Mafia-aligned Day vigilante, and perhaps a town-aligned one. If there are two medics (or two of anything) I'd find it more likely that there'd be a roleblocker. Probably to throw off the DT, there will be one, at most but probably not, two Millers. Of course, this is all conjectural based on how I would potentially balance a game. Well, as far as I can see it, there's two possibilities. We probably have a single day-vig in the game based on how the role was described; Its put apart in a black format and given that the role counts are useless, I'd have expected a red/blue name instead. If there is just one Dvig, then there's 3 possibilities: 1) Real SK type with alternate win goals. Highly unlikely given a single day shot. 2) Town controlled day vig, maybe 4 blues total besides the Dvig, medic, dt, watcher, vet/hatter. 3) Mafia controlled Dvig. - If there's a roleblocker there are probably 7 blues. 1 of each type most likely. - If there isn't, I'd guess 5-6. Double medics in a 1 kp setup is absolutely ridiculous, have both claim early and have the watcher check them. You will have a 50% chance at finding the roleblocker. If a vet or hatter lied and stepped up to get blown up, even more ridiculously powerful. Gives DT and watchers 3 free checks. Given that if double medics are in play, I'd count them as 3 blues for the above totals. So how do we abuse this information? Well, its simple, pimple. We can do this 2 ways. 1) Mass roleclaim asap because mafia need to spend 7 days shredding our blue totals. Unlike the prior game with 0 minute long days and 3 total kp/day (of which, the town kp was only marginally controlled), we now have full days and 2 kp total, which means this game will go until day 6 at the minimum. Medics obviously lie and vet/hatter claim DT/Watcher respectively so that mafia are 50% screened in their attempt at hitting any of our info roles. That way its pretty impossible to hit into our blues safely. 2) RANDOM BULLSHIT. Given that 1) is a better plan, we'll probably end up having haters bring the hate because my name is a letter long and go with 2) under fears that a nearly impossible to lose game will crumble under the weight of "L is too dangerous to listen to". Your call. | ||
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I understand. | ||
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what happens when there is only one medic and he roleclaims? Well, maybe try reading the plan before posting. | ||
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Outing yourself as the tracker which is probably the most powerful blue role this game seems like such a terrible idea right now. Unless he's a hatter or vet and is claiming as instructed. | ||
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I'm off to sleep. I work now so I won't be around during the day but i'll be back around 8pm est. maybe i'll post tmr morning if i'm not too sleepy. | ||
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On June 10 2010 17:12 AcrossFiveJulys wrote: L your plan has some flaws. 1) detective rolechecks a miller and announces that he found a mafia. waste lynch on townie, then waste lynch on detective. pretty much GG. 2) mafia can sacrifice one of their own to fake being detective and announce an incorrect role check result (claim a townie role checked as mafia). medic the first night will probably be asked to protect the "detective", so the mafia get their pick for whom to kill without worrying about the medic block. then, the next day the town will have to decide whether the detective roll checked a miller or he's mafia. It's debatable whether this would be a net gain or loss for the mafia, as they could have the "detective" screw with the town for more than one day. 3) What if all 4 mafia fake blue roles? We don't know how many blue roles there are, so we wouldn't be able to say whether or not the blue list is inflated (and god forbid townies might fake blue roles too) and they could cause some serious havoc (hatters/vigs won't be targetting any blues obviously, so all their kills will be on townies. Also, real detective roles would be checking townies/millers every night (assuming they don't check blues... checking blues would be stupid) which would be bad since that increases their odds of role checking millers. I mean the plan would be fun and all, but unless you can come up with good responses to these problems (and give a shitload more detail on how blues are going to be asked to use their powers), your plan is garbage L. Gotta go to work so only a quick recap: 1) DT needs to find sanity regardless of any plan we use. We also wouldn't kill the DT after seeing that the target he calls flips miller. REALLY poor logic on your part seeing as the uncertainty exists because of the role. I haven't specified a use for the DT (yet), so worrying that we'll hit a miller is pretty hilarious. 2) Ok. Let them lie. If we have a legit DT, we trade a DT for a mafia member on day 1, which is pretty tits given how weak our DTs are. 3) Then we end with 9+ blues and we know people are lying and that the majority of our townies are legit. Mafia are now in a position where they need to lie about their night actions and lie about them correctly. I say no one visited, say, citi.zen because I watched him? Well, fuck, a medic or DT did. Or shit, a tracker watched me and saw that I didn't visit anyone. I mean, your objections aren't flaws at all. There ARE flaws, but those aren't any of them. | ||
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YES i do tell 3 classes of people to lie about their role. Vet/hatter need to claim to be dt/watcher/tracker. Medic needs to lie in whatever way he feels necessary. Why? Because this forces mafia to lie. If we had everyone claim and we have like only 4 blues total, we KNOW they're legit because the number's hyper low. If we have everyone claim and we have 9 blues, we KNOW some of them are lying. No other role should lie, and the roles that ARE lying should only be lying in the way set out above. On that note, I'm townie, brosefs. We have decided there is probably around 4-5 greens Look at the game numbers. 17 players. 13 town. 4 mafia. 7 blue roles. We're likely to have 4-7 blues max, giving us at the worst 6 greens. The game is 1 kp with 17 players in play. Every correct lynch we have buys us a day. Every medic prot buys us a day. We have potential 3 information roles. With 2 players down a day and a minimum of 8 people alive if we chain-mishit, we have 9 deaths until we're in near death situation. That means we can screw up every single day until day 5 and still win. Given that, I'd be very shocked to see us packing 8-9 blues as per your estimate. | ||
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On June 12 2010 08:03 AcrossFiveJulys wrote: Ok so we have 1 tracker, 1 watcher, and 2 detectives claimed. This makes sense according to L's plan, as 2 of them are hatter/vets and are lying. If you have claimed townie or have not RC'd at all and are one of the roles that should be claiming tracker/watcher then do so immediately so we have a better idea of whether there are mafia hiding in the blue RCs. Otherwise we can probably trust the RC'd blues. Changing my vote from meeple to redtooth as per radfield's above reasoning. If meeple is lying we can probably figure it out later. That sounds about right if we have a medic who's refused to claim and that one of the DTs is a Vet/Hatter. If no one's lying thusfar, that's pretty odd, because that would mean there's no Dvig, and quite frankly introducing a new role then not using it is pretty fucked. So the Dvig has thus refused to claim, which is kinda odd given that I'd have expected him to get priority for medic protection, but the alternative scenario, a mafia Dvig, is unlikely unless we have multiple townie liars. So yeah, good showing but there's 1-2 holdouts that are kinda fucking stage 2. Please do not use your night roles until I give you brosefs some heads up. Don't want to give a mafia Dvig the chance to sacrifice himself to prevent an assured win by spilling the beans now. | ||
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Anyways, so the plan basically goes like this; Tracker tracks our DTs. Watchers watch any of our blues. If one of DTs is bullshitting, we'll be able to figure it out immediately. DTs can check our blues if they want, but given the sanity issue I can understand another checks. Sound decent? Comments plz. | ||
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On June 12 2010 10:29 MooCow wrote: I'm investigating meeple because he was 2nd highest on the votes for being lynched and no one else recommended any other candidates. Please do not send in your night action right away!!! Important that we talk about our 2 DT check targets. | ||
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On June 12 2010 11:26 meeple wrote: Why exactly are you asking me instead of doing some thinking on your own?If one of our dt's checks come back red... do we act? How likely is he paranoid? How likely is he's really mafia and just pretending to be paranoid? | ||
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On June 12 2010 11:51 meeple wrote: lol well apparently you're the man with the plan... also I was asking the town. No need to get all defensive I'm not being defensive. I'm wondering why you're purposely not answering your own question. This post hasn't really answered the question either, so feel free to get to it whenever you feel like doing some work. | ||
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On June 13 2010 08:15 AcrossFiveJulys wrote: Hey guys, just wanted to let you know I got role blocked last night. Guess the mafia thought I was blue. What this is means is that if no one else claims to have been role blocked last night, this is evidence for me being town-aligned, which means that we should be able to narrow down what kind of detective ludwig is. Of course, there is the possibility that if I was mafia, mafia could waste a role block on me to create this exact situation to prevent me from being lynched, but hey, I'm just saying what happened. Wait, why would you be told that you were roleblocked unless you had a role? Are you trying to dodge getting killed for the DT confirmation? Also, I really hope our medic was at least protecting our watcher last night. DT is protected because we probably have a fake and watcher is a weaker role. Without Dvig claimed, I have no idea why the medic wouldn't have protected the tracker. Anyways, time for night role information! Hopefully we've found some interesting stuff via DT or watcher. If not, I think we have enough information to make an educated guess about our hits tonight regardless. Incog, on a rules point: do you notify vanilla townies about roleblocks? Not sure that even answerable fairly at this point. | ||
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Yeah, really hoping our watcher turned something up. | ||
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On June 13 2010 10:45 AcrossFiveJulys wrote: L, please post your ideas before we get information about the night actions back. Then, we will know whether you are a legit townie or a mafia who is trying to bend the evidence one way or the other. Well, derp derp. You were supposed to be checked by our DTs. If we had a hatter or a vet in our DT group, our watcher should know who he is and be able to confirm the other DT as legit. He should also be able to figure out who the roleblocker is if he checked you if you aren't bullshitting. Basically the question here is whether or not we're killing you today and I'd kinda like information regarding who's lying and who isn't. | ||
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