EPTTL Mafia XXII
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Korynne
Canada990 Posts
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Korynne
Canada990 Posts
In response to Incognito, I was not aware using the word noob was so bad for my "image" until reading the thread, as this is my first game. What I mean to say is, I am completely new at this game (on a forum instead of in person). So analyzing the person below me, Jadefist has only 2 posts, one to join the game and promise to be more active, the other seems rather baseless and was a vote for Caller before Ace's claim. + Show Spoiler + On April 15 2010 15:22 JadeFist wrote: I'll play if there's room. I'll be activer this time. On April 19 2010 13:51 JadeFist wrote: Voted Caller. Last time I played decafchicken, a long time forum veteran, was the Godfather. I feel like the choice for mafia members is not entirely random and I wouldn't be surprised if a forum "celebrity" such as Caller was mafia. So in terms of analysis... I found LardyGooser's blind following of BM's idea rather troubling. (I don't know if LG is new but) it seems like he doesn't really understand what's going on and might have just agreed with BM because he was a fellow mafia? LG did not give me the impression that he analyzed BM's plan and then decided it was good for mafia and therefore supported it. Goose then jumps on the RaGe wagon to kill RoL, so right now I'm inclined to believe RoL is town-aligned, unless BC turns out to be innocent I guess. nai.Protoss immediately jumps on after LG, but kept his vote on Caller until way later (confused by this). Goose jumped in very quickly to defend someone's attack on RaGe, who seems to have written something that was very suggestive (in terms of like, everyone being: OMG RaGe is red because he said this) but then RaGe is able to defend himself. So if he's good perhaps he tried to lead people into doing what he was suggesting, but if the plan backfired he could say that he never actually said such a thing? I'm also for the conspiracy theory that Caller and nai.Protoss are both scum. So if anyone listened to Caller and lynched nai.Protoss, then Caller's name would be cleared. Perhaps Caller felt like Protoss was not doing a good job as mafia and tried to use it to win some trust? Protoss also had that issue earlier where he made a fluff post saying Caller made sense, which seemed like he was eager to agree with Caller and at the same time somehow failing to follow the instructions... this makes me very confused. =( nai.Protoss kept his vote on Caller, even though he stated he doesn't believe Caller is mafia and he said he'd change it he "can find somone better to vote for". But Protoss didn't change his vote immediately when he expressed in the thread that he agrees with the RaGe on lynching RoL. So all in all I'm just rather confused by him. >.> Protoss most recently said: I would just like to point out that since Caller is now proven to be mafia and he tried to take me out near the start when he was under risk of being lynched, I am clearly not mafia. Although I am also proving your point that I only post to defend myself and I am semi-inactive. But until I find time to sift through all these posts and come up with a good arguement for why somone is mafia I don't have anything to post. It would seem rather obvious to anyone that if Caller was mafia and not playing some mind game then Protoss is innocent. So why is Protoss so adamant on saying see everyone, I'm innocent!! and then posting fluff again? My conclusion about Protoss is really that he seems rather confused (reasonably so if what he stated is true and this is his first game) so either way, if he's townie or mafia he's not much harm really so we should go for more experienced and influential people that we are more certain about? That being said, voted for Caller and double lynch. I feel like the back and forth stuff between Caller and Ace is really confusing so hopefully this will at least clear that up a bit so we can focus. Also it seems like we're making okay progress so I think a double lynch will be beneficial tomorrow. P.S. I don't know if you guys do any post-game analysis stuff, but can someone explain to me afterwards what the whole deal with Ace and his bidding stuff is? Its motivation is really confusing to me. >.< P.P.S. I'm a girl, and stating this mainly because I would prefer to be referred to as a she instead of a he (in reference to Incognito's post mainly xD). | ||
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Korynne
Canada990 Posts
I was just doing analysis, didn't know what I would come up with as I went along, and I made my conclusion at the end. I didn't analyze anyone that I did not write about. Sure, if I knew ahead of time then I might not do an analysis on Protoss, but he seemed manageable when I was reading so I'm just trying my best to contribute. I definitely will be watching him, but I think if he's the last mafia left there really isn't much harm and we could take him out easily, whereas someone with more experience would be more scary. So given that I don't have much against protoss and he doesn't seem like a great player, my final conclusion is just to keep an eye on him and focus on bigger threats. Like I said, I'm new at this, so if someone else manages to find something real on protoss after I brought him to everyone's attention then I've managed to contribute my part. Do you know already who you wish to lynch tomorrow Scara? I personally don't. But I see kind of two lines of people in focus right now, Caller/Ace/etc. and BC/RoL/etc. So I think it'll be reasonably likely that we can find someone suspicious tied to both of those camps, and therefore a double lynch would speed things up a little in terms of what information we would have regarding those two camps. Why have you not contributed much Scara? It seems like all you've done is get in a fight with Jugan, and seem condescending overall and focus on how the quality of the posts suck. You keep asking questions, but where's your analysis of anything? Games in the past that ive played all point to lynching big players that look suspicious pays off some of the time but most turn out town, then you're left with inactives which allows mafia to sit there, do fuck all and get away with it So from this game I'm assuming Caller is a "big player," of course this could be an incorrect assumption since I have not gone through previous games to see what Caller is like, but he certainly gives off that impression. So scara in your first vote you said: ##vote caller Where are you caller, if you post i'll change my vote but inactiveness leads to death So you voted for a big player AND an inactive...I don't get it. You then retract your vote because you didn't read carefully, and just throw out names randomly while stating you haven't finished reading yet... I NEED TO READ THE RULES LOOOOOOOOOOOL ## vote for BloodyC0bbler LOL sorry guys i'll change it after ive read everything im up to page 22 And then finally vote for Jugan, basically because he clutters up the thread rather than you think he is mafia. Now today you just bandwagon vote Caller, implying that you need no reasoning because motbob already said it. I've given more reason to vote Caller than you have. So Scara, could you please explain your reasoning, rather than asking other people to do so for you? | ||
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Korynne
Canada990 Posts
So either Ace just failed at deducing if Caller was mafia, and he's innocent. Or Ace is mafia, in that case, it would be extremely risky to claim Caller as mafia. As mafia, Ace would know that Caller was not mafia, so claiming he's mafia is pretty much death if he turned out townie. There would be a very low probability of him turning up Miller. So for now, I think Ace is telling the truth, but a bit sketchy with analysis (possibly just because Caller's acting funny, which seems counterproductive from his role as a townie?). | ||
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Korynne
Canada990 Posts
On April 22 2010 04:22 tree.hugger wrote: Except.... From the mafia's perspective, Ace was lying about the rolecheck. The mafia could not have known that Caller was the miller, and though they might have couched their views slightly to accommodate for that, it seems highly likely that, in order to burnish their credibility, the mafia would've been among Ace's more vocal skeptics. Therefore, when Ace's claim would've been revealed to be total bull-L then the FoS could be smoothly redirected towards Ace, and the mafia members would look like they had a better handle on the game then others. So it seems to me that people who doubted Ace most strongly, or accused him of lying may have revealed themselves to be mafia. And one person sticks out at the top of this list, beyond all his scummy posting, and random accusations, I think BloodyC0bbler's seat just got a lot hotter. I disagree with you tree.hugger. If I was mafia, I would just jump on the bandwagon and just vote for Caller like everyone else. First, there's no reason to attract attention to yourself. Most importantly, once Caller turns out to be innocent, we lynch Ace, and mafia managed to get us to waste 2 lynches EZPZ. Why be skeptical of Ace for no reason? Just follow the bandwagon, and let the townies kill themselves. | ||
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Korynne
Canada990 Posts
On April 22 2010 06:11 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:But given the logic posted by Korynne, it wouldn't make sense for BC to be red since he was Aces strongest opponent. I'm more wary of RoL given the circumstances of his roleclaim - right after Ace, and right after I pointed out that he hadn't really contributed anything to the town since he get back, despite saying he would. I'm not so sure about that. Caller's vote is not exactly close, so a mafia member could definitely go slightly against voting for Caller without worrying that Caller would not get lynched. So I don't think that BC going against Ace is a sure sign of not being red. Likewise, I don't believe there's any reason for tree.hugger's idea that whoever goes against Ace is mafia. I don't know what we should do tomorrow yet, I guess see how night turns out. Unless BC turns out Miller I think we're probably lynching one of BC/RoL? Then I think we should focus on some of the more inactive/lurking people. Protoss is still on my suspicion list, so is Scaramanga (from his replies to my post). Tree.hugger needs to explain how he came up with the strange logic... Watch out for Infund if BC comes up mafia. But anyway I'm not going to analyze anyone too much now, going to wait for night results. Don't forget to vote for/against double lynch guys! | ||
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Korynne
Canada990 Posts
On April 22 2010 08:27 nbtnbt5 wrote: also what is this and where can i find it? (i tried searching for it) Uhhh... xD If you look on the Mafia forum, and then look for the ONLY THREAD THAT ZBOT STARTED THAT HAPPENS TO HAVE THE SAME NUMBER FOR MAFIA AS THIS GAME, I think you would find it? xP Why is this so hard? xD [Link provided here incase you still cannot find it] This reflects poorly on your abilities in general. >_> | ||
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Korynne
Canada990 Posts
If the double lynch is already passed then just wait for tonight's actions to see what happens. Maybe Ace will find another mafia, maybe RoL will, maybe we can deduce something from the mafia's killing pattern. I wouldn't try to waste your time to over-analyze anything now and just wait until night's over, unless we want to come up with a plan for what blue roles should do tonight, depending on if we think that helps us more than it helps mafia. | ||
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Korynne
Canada990 Posts
I think it makes sense to read your archive RoL, since you are accusing BC. So we basically have to make a decision between lynching you and him. RaGe, is your intent that we share what we find in the archives immediately or tomorrow? Or at all? | ||
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Korynne
Canada990 Posts
Here's my analysis of RoL's situation ASSUMING ROL IS MAFIA, ACE IS DETECTIVE AND BC IS TOWN: Ace accuses Caller, who RoL knows is innocent. Knowing that Ace is town and probably detective, RoL deduces that Caller is probably a miller, since he is not mafia. It looks like Caller will probably get lynched, so what could be a good action for RoL? Caller gets lynched, KP=4, there will be 18T/7M left (he can't predict the 2 inactives so assuming ending the day with 22 townies). Since RoL claimed that BC was mafia, we lynch BC (there was no sign that we wanted to do a double lynch when RoL claimed). This would be even more convincing if someone rolechecked RoL and discovered he was detective (if he was godfather and chose detective). That leaves us with 17T/7M. KP = 4, so mafia kills 4 townies, that leaves us with 13T/7M. Now clearly we lynch RoL, perhaps we get lucky and double lynch a mafia, perhaps we fail, that leaves us with 13T/5M or 12T/6M. Either way, KP is 3. Assassins have used their rolechecks by now so probably one kill happens as well? Next morning we're at best 10T/5M, at worst 8T/6M (taking into account an assassin kill). If we double lynch someone two days in a row, we're not that much better (could be worse since we could lynch a townie). So if I was RoL, especially if I was mafia godfather, claiming BC is mafia right after Ace would be a decent plan. the rest is spam. So far, RoL has not lived up to his claim of helping to find reds. The other stuff he said was already covered and neither new nor helpful contributions. Maybe he needs some "more time?" I do believe RoL was actually gone for the weekend, but he has yet to step up his play in the slightest. The fact that RoL claimed very abruptly after Infund barely accused him even slightly of the fact that he wasn't helping (not even an FoS and explicitly saying this is basically spam) is also very suspicious. It seems like he was just waiting for someone to say something so he doesn't look completely suspicious roleclaiming when he was under no danger (especially compared to the first day when RaGe bandwagon'd him). RoL has also recently advocated for people to hurry up and pass double lynch so night phase can begin, a sign of okay guys hurry up let's not think too much so we can get to my plan already. So in conclusion, in my opinion, IT IS A VERY BAD IDEA TO JUST DECIDE TO LYNCH BC AND THEN LYNCH RoL IF BC IS INNOCENT, because the time we waste could put us quite behind given that 2 townies got modkilled, and that mafia kill power is so high. In terms of who to lynch other than RoL/BC, I'd have to wait until night kills/actions get revealed before passing any judgment (especially if mafia will use the information to kill the most innocent looking townies). | ||
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Korynne
Canada990 Posts
I feel like if we are not doing a double lynch, and RoL is leading us on the wrong track, then we're wasting quite a lot of time while the mafia kills half the town. | ||
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Korynne
Canada990 Posts
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Korynne
Canada990 Posts
Actually, given that Caller ended up being miller, I think it's rather silly for nai.protoss to post something like that if he was mafia. When it is revealed that Caller is miller, nai.protoss has to defend himself all over again. Given how he plays, I would say he's just an overly defensive noob. Either way I don't agree on hitting protoss if we have a better player that is a suspect, only based on the fact that he doesn't seem to know what he's doing, i.e. probably won't contribute a lot to the mafia. Mostly in agreement with Incognito's post minus the fact that he called everyone apathetic people. xD While it is true that some people have not been contributing it seems rather overgeneralizing to call everyone apathetic. Not to mention that kind of hostility further intimidates new players... | ||
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Korynne
Canada990 Posts
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Korynne
Canada990 Posts
Just read stuff and I would say at least make a post giving your reasoning when voting (even if it is for example, "well i don't know much but it seems like ____ is making a lot of sense here when they're accusing ___, so I'm voting for _____ today"). This way at least if we think you're voting incorrectly we can try to put you on the "right track," if you are a townie. | ||
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Korynne
Canada990 Posts
If you are town-aligned, GIVEN HOW BAD WE ARE DOING RIGHT NOW PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE DON'T GO KILL YOURSELF. >.> I don't care what Incognito says, a townie voting with someone "reliable" is better than a dead townie. My proposal is to SPREAD OUT "newbs" to vote with people the town generally consider to be innocent (Ace for example right now). I see no reason at all why this could be worse than having them die or follow stupid bandwagons. I propose that nai.protoss votes with Ace tomorrow. | ||
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Korynne
Canada990 Posts
If we run out of better suspects we can lynch him, but for the meantime I can't see how it would hurt the town to keep him around as votes. I think this is safer than having him vote someone "randomly" because he's "new" and "doesn't know who to vote for" etc. I mean same goes for people like Scaramanga, who says he's bad at analyzing so he'll just hear what other people have to say. If they're not going to contribute, we should at least make sure their actions are controlled by townies, rather than randomness. Given that they are "bad" players, I don't think having people like that being the last 2 mafia would hurt us terribly as lynching them instead of bigger threats. Of course, if someone's giving intelligent analysis one game and playing dumb the next, then this will not apply. I am in no way discouraging analysis and input, but if you /have/ to play that card then I suggest you follow someone significantly townie and probably a good player, aka Ace right now. Also, this means that if we're at critical mass, we assume them to be mafia and not assume them to vote with someone else(LYLO). | ||
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Korynne
Canada990 Posts
Ace RoL Korynne Scamp Incognito's list: Incognito Ace So Ace, and who will be the second person that a medic should coin flip? | ||
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Korynne
Canada990 Posts
I guess we'll just wait until tomorrow morning to decide what to do, but one dead townie is one step closer to losing. One inactive townie lynch right now is 1.5 steps closer to losing (.5 being a 50% chance we could've lynched a mafia instead). Anyway, no point arguing about this now when we have other things to do. nai.protoss, do what you see fit and JUSTIFY YOURSELF AS BEST AS YOU CAN WHEN DOING SO. | ||
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Korynne
Canada990 Posts
Can we all discuss and settle on a 3rd candidate for medic protection? | ||
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