TL Mafia XXII Archive

On April 13 2010 13:28 citi.zen wrote:
Finally, lightning! Muahahahahaha!@!@!

On April 14 2010 00:32 citi.zen wrote:
Good crew thus far, this should be exciting. Can we rope Ace/Ver/Qatol/L/Caller into playing in this one?

On April 14 2010 05:01 citi.zen wrote:

Err?

On April 15 2010 01:48 citi.zen wrote:

Welcome back from your ban!

On April 15 2010 05:33 citi.zen wrote:

Wow - good catch, clearly you should sign up for this.

On April 15 2010 07:38 citi.zen wrote:

Oh yeah!

On April 16 2010 00:05 citi.zen wrote:
Bill's post will be a runaway success if we get IntotheWoW, CaucasianAsian and Zoeler to join our mafia regulars.

On April 17 2010 04:00 citi.zen wrote:

Because Incognito likes them!

On April 17 2010 13:11 citi.zen wrote:

I like it already.

On April 18 2010 09:01 citi.zen wrote:
Opening day post on behalf of Flamewheel, who is out for the evening:

---

As the picture above suggested, it was not going to be a pleasant day.

This is the future, the future of humanity. The city is Liq Vegas. Nobody knows exactly why it was called that, but over the centuries following the destruction of Las Vegas by Mexican nuclear missiles, the name has stuck.

The city is a thriving place, with a huge financial center, gambling casinos galore, and many cough cough model citizens. As reporters and news analysts said about Vegas, "ah, Liq Vegas, a more wretched hive of scum and villainy you shall not find. We must be cautious."

A new wave of immigrants had just arrived, settling in the southern part of the city. While most came for the money and seedy ESPORTS rings that Liq Vegas had to offer, some came for something more.

And once again, death is in the air. A new mafia had established itself in Liq Vegas, and this one was powerful. Bolstered by powerful weapons and trained in the deadliest of martial arts, the Mafia had come to take control of Liq Vegas, starting with the south. Another problem beyond the mafia for the city had arrived as well. Skilled Assassins, each sent from their respective country, had taken residence in Liq Vegas, and their goals were to try and kill off the other country's Assassins, in order to ensure better diplomatic and corporate ties with Liq Vegas. Businessmen by day, ruthless killers at night. But their story will be overshadowed in the morning news by the mafia, for last night they had decided to make their move.

They moved against the most prominent targets first.

Ver, Qatol, and dreamflower co-owned a business, and they were known far and wide as "The Professional Meddlers." On the outside, they pretended to be private investigators, helping people solve the slightly unnatural mysteries. The three brought in good money as Private Eye, but the real money came from elsewhere. Ver, Qatol, and dreamflower rigged matches behind the scenes. Starcraft XVI, the hottest game on the market, had a huge ESPORTS industry, and just like back when SCBW was out, there were many professional players. After years of bribing players to lose and betting against the heavy odds, Ver, Qatol, and dreamflower had become millionaires, and controlled a good deal of southern Vegas.

The mafia hit them first.
Ver was just wrapping up a phone call with the famous Starcraft player, ExplOit. The details were set out--ExplOit was to drop the upcoming TeamLiquid StarLeague finals 0-3 to the newcomer, Bosu, with odds at approximately 17 to 1 in favour of ExplOit winning. However, as Ver put down the phone, he noticed somebody standing in the shadows. Ver frowned; how had he not seen that person before? There had been no movement in the office... unless the person was cloaked. The assailant smiled, and pulled out a massive blade.

The next morning, had anybody else been alive in the office, they would've found Ver, hole through his chest, still sitting in front of his computer, ready to send a huge sum of money to ExplOit.

---

Qatol had left work early that day, and was reclining in a jazz bar, listening to soft music and enjoying some aged wine. The atmosphere of the club was cool and collected, just like Qatol liked it. However, that peace and quiet would be disrupted by a masked figure stepping into the front door, near where Qatol was sitting, and announcing excitedly that he had just procured 10 Starcraft XVII Beta Keys, and was willing to listen to nominations. The place went crazy.

Brawls broke out between the normally serene frequenters of the bar. Shots from concealed weapons were fired, and somebody even managed to scrap together a crude explosive, igniting it on the wine rack behind the barman's counter.

After the smoke and fire cleared, there were 11 people left. They looked at each other frantically, and started squabbling about who should be "voted out." None of them seemed to be relenting, even after five minutes of fierce arguing. Qatol, who lay on the floor aching from several blows, groaned as he saw the masked figure pull out a can of oil and a match. Dousing the beta keys in the flammable liquid, the Mafia member set them on fire and threw the ten keys into the midst of the 11 arguing clubbers, then turned tail and left. Qatol watched in horror as the flames slowly made their way toward the larger, somehow still undisturbed wine rack.

As the man walked off into the distance, he could hear Qatol's scream of agony as the jazz bar went up in flames.

---

dreamflower had stayed at the office as well, though her office was on the other side of the building as Ver's was. She had actually just finished an "investigative" case, where she had found the professional Starcraft player DownSoRcErY "guilty" of match rigging. He was to be sent to court next day, and dreamflower chuckled. Little did DownSoRcErY know that he had been duped; it had been dreamflower who had bribed him, dreamflower who had raked in all the money for betting against the odds, and it was dreamflower that was earning yet more money for bringing the poor Starcraft player to justice. She powered down her computer and prepared to depart for home.

dreamflower left the office, thinking that Ver had already left, since she had heard the main door open and close. As she drove home through the rain, she glanced upward at the sky, where it was still raining. When she looked back down at her control panel though, it had locked up. The doors locked themselves, and the seatbelt wouldn't let her out. Ironically, the only that that worked in her 23XX Toyota Prius were the brakes, and even those weren't enough.

The possessed car drove itself out of the city, far far into the countryside. Where did it stop? Who knows? One thing was certain though, dreamflower was never seen again.

---

citi.zen, actually a model citizen of Liq Vegas, was conducting a charity fund for orphaned polka-dotted baby whales with a lavish, donate-to-dine gala. He was a gracious host, and was able to raise a ton of money for the baby whales. His night was to be amazing...

If it weren't for the Mafioso.

Somehow he snuck (or sneaked, whatever) in through security. The man was nondescript, being of middle height and no outstanding features. He had carried no weapons, so the guards had let him in after he made a handsome donation. In fact, the man was so bland that nobody afterward, even when directly questioned, could remember anything about him. It was as if he were just an anomaly in the space-time continuum.

The man waited until citi.zen stepped out to use the bathroom, and followed him in. While citi.zen was washing his hands, the Mafia member made his move, and in less than a second citi.zen lay dead on the floor. The Mafioso didn't even bother to hide the body, for he knew there was no way any detective or police would find any evidence on him. He turned on his handhold teleporter and disappeared.

Yeah, that's right, the future contains teleporters.

---

And what about flamewheel91? Well, he was struck by lightning again.
Go figure.
No, there was no goat.

---

Ver, Qatol, and dreamflower of the Professional Meddlers are now dead.
citi.zen, the newbie host, is now dead.
flamewheel91 has been struck by lightning. Yes, he is dead as well.

[/end]

---

The game is now afoot. Day 1 will run until Tuesday, Apr 20 1:00am GMT (GMT+00:00).
Remember, you may PM flamewheel91 or citi.zen if you have any questions; we'll be happy to help.

[Begin]

On April 21 2010 10:01 citi.zen wrote:
Day 2

In the morning most of the inhabitants of Liq Vegas were reminiscing about April 20th: smoking, drinking and trying to win SC2 beta keys in the latest TL giveaway. Still sleepy and quite hung over, the townies were abruptly brought back to reality by the sound of a bomb going off in the town’s main square. This was Liq Vegas after all, where nobody was safe. Running into the square, the town found the body Foolishness the Mad Hatter , who had been ambushed on his way back from placing a bomb under the house of TheLardyGooser - amateur mafia goon. The town rejoiced at the sigt of red blood, but their happiness was short-lived. In a nearby shed they discovered more dead townies: Radfield the detective, [NyC]Hobbes the medic and CynnanMachae the Miller had been killed during the night.

On April 13 2010 11:37 Zona wrote:
I'd like to play.

On April 13 2010 12:16 Zona wrote:
I'll be definitely including Bus Drivers in some of my future games. While they are powerful, I think the power is in line with good mafia play: that involving reading other players and predicting other's actions.

On April 13 2010 20:37 Zona wrote:
oops

On April 14 2010 07:49 Zona wrote:
The game should not end if an assassin wins. Otherwise the mafia and town could lose based on events that are very hard for them to control.

If the game ended with a loss for mafia and town if an assassin wins, then the town and mafia have to prevent assassins from successfully killing each other, or somehow engineer a night where all the remaining assassins die simultaneously. Not only is either of these a very difficult task, they both are major diversions to both the town and mafia's primary goal.

On April 15 2010 20:17 Zona wrote:
A new post in a stickied thread does make it appear on top in the left sidebar, but doesn't change its position when viewing the forum index.

On April 18 2010 04:45 Zona wrote:
Wow, 8 mafia vs 30 town members, with some of the 30 not truly pro-town? Looks like a rather tough game, unless town has more power roles than usual.

The town can only afford 5-7 single mislynches if we aren't lucky early in the game and really reduce KP, and we have to lynch/bluekill 8 times successfully. If everything goes wrong for the town without double lynches we lose at the end of Day 5 - so we probably want to highly consider using our first double lynch on Day 3 and likely on the following days as well, unless we do kill off a bunch of mafia and gain ourselves more time, unless we do particularly well in the first day/night cycle. I suggest Day 3 for our first unless a lot of information surfaces earlier in the game, because we don't want to spend our double lynches unless we have good targets to use it on, or until we're desperate, and earlier in the game we're less likely to have good targets.

The day 1 lynch is really a crapshoot as we have very little information, but definitely avoid lynching someone who's participating actively, unless that person does an outrageous scumtell. It's easier to find mafia among active players than among inactives, so don't remove an active player with the day 1 lynch when it could have been an active town member! But for sure don't no lynch. Past vote counts are the most solid information the town gets, and along with the alignment revelation of the lynched player, can often reveal a lot.

(Unless Abenson improves, his posting does NOT count as activity. Since his posts are truly garbage, and he seems proud of the fact with his "The happy spammer/1-line poster of TL Mafia :D" sig, he pretty much counts as an inactive. As his posts give us no clue as to whether or not he's mafia.)

On April 18 2010 05:16 Zona wrote:

Wait, what? You claim to be one of the "big names" and you are already giving yourself an excuse for low activity? Seems like a convenient excuse so you produce fewer chances of slipping up and revealing yourself if you were mafia.


Are you kidding? You really think that in a game where most players cannot PM, someone would both be able to PM and DT check? As well - all the roles have been revealed in the game, none of the abilities are hidden. Why would you even consider that DTs would be able to PM as well?

Detectives need to target players with the aim of finding mafia in a game with no out of thread communications with fellow players. Why? With no out of thread communications with fellow players the usefulness of finding a fellow town player is greatly diminished.

It probably isn't a good idea to claim detective early in the game unless you're close to being lynched. If the town already has some suspicion on someone you have checked to be mafia, you should keep up the pressure. However, early in the game it'll be difficult to go after someone you found red if the rest of the town isn't suspicious of them, so keep your result under your hat and pay attention to what this person does, and later on see if you can identify this person's teammates, or go after them once they create more suspicion upon themselves. If the town is getting killed off and is approaching a loss, AT THAT POINT you probably want to claim if you've found some red. You may also want to be more aggressive in going after someone if lynching that person would take mafia numbers from odd to even, which will reduce their KP by one (a big deal in a game such as this).


Curious. If medics do what you instruct them to do, then if any of these players are town, it makes them easy to kill at night and easy for the mafia to deprive the town of their ability. But actually from my point of view the only player on this list that I would really try to keep around if town would be Ace. I haven't seen Caller being particularly useful as a town player, nor you, especially in this type of setup. You seem to be strongest in games where PMs are allowed, even your plans contain hopes that DTs are able to PM. The "build a town PM circle and then DT-check/confirm everyone" strategy doesn't work here, and at least from my view that seems to be your strength, rather than people analysis. In fact in past games as a prominent pro-town player you've heavily advocated lynching players who ended up being town when you couldn't rely on DT-checks and other ways to confirm.


I can't believe I'm calling you out on so much of your post...but Mad Hatters are similar to vigilantes, except delayed. You say they're like DTs??? What the heck?

Anyways - vigilantes, hold your shot until you're really sure a player is mafia, because if you screw up, you contribute to REMOVING AVAILABLE MISLYNCHES from the town!!! That's right. If you screw up your shot, the town could possibly lose an opportunity to screw up a lynch because you killed an extra town-aligned player. And mislynches are more valuable to the town than screwed up vigilante hits because mislynches come with vote counts that include mafia votes, which can be analyzed later on.

Also - if early in the game you think you're SURE a player is mafia - YOU ARE WRONG! Look at past games where vigilantes fired early. Especially World at War, considering nukes as daytime vigilante hits. Notice how many town-aligned players with nukes were "SURE" that their nuke targets were mafia - and almost all of them would have hit town! That's why being "sure" early in the game is just a delusion.

Mad hatter - since your bombs don't activate until you die, go ahead and place some bombs early - but try not to get killed early either! If you're going to die early you might as well hold back on your bombs, as they will then act as early-game vigilante hits.

On April 18 2010 05:25 Zona wrote:
A message to assassins:
Although your goal in this game is to eliminate your fellow assassins, for all other aspects of the game, you should start off playing pro-town (at least until the town has an overwhelming advantage). It is in your own self-interest to do so. Why? It's in YOUR OWN SELF INTEREST to prolong the game as long as possible. And at least initially, it looks to me that mafia has the numbers advantage, if you as assassins are ignored.

Why? First of all, notice the odds. Likely 5-7 mislynches allowed for 8 successful lynches. It's not easy for the town to go >50% success in lynching, so if we don't do well here, it's likely mafia will win early, reducing the amount of time you have to reach your own personal goal. So helping the town with your votes helps you prolong the game and increase your OWN PERSONAL CHANCES OF WINNING.

Also - HOLD YOUR KILL unless you are sure your target is another assassin. Why? First, you only have 2 chances to screw up - so if you use your kill casually you could waste your killing abilities and be left impotent and relying on the chance that others will somehow kill your opponents for you. FURTHERMORE - EACH OF YOUR SCREWED UP KILLS HELPS EITHER THE TOWN OR MAFIA TOWARDS WINNING, and reduces the amount of time you have to win yourself. So don't deprive yourself of time by killing casually. Only in desperate times (when one of mafia or town are visibly dominating) will you have to employ your kill to try to balance the numbers so that the winning side won't immediately win and end the game for you as well.

On April 18 2010 05:32 Zona wrote:
Hrm. I've confirmed with flamewheel that nobody has the ability to PM others or talk out of thread except for mafia. I find it highly fishy that so much of BC's proposed plan hinges on an aspect of the game that doesn't exist, and that he didn't himself ask to confirm.

On April 18 2010 05:36 Zona wrote:
Hah, as I post you I see that you are still making arguments based on the idea DTs can PM. Confirmed townies are somewhat useful in a game without out of thread communications, but are a LOT LESS USEFUL THAN FINDING MAFIA. When a town member has to be publicly confirmed, the value is a lot less.

I would like you to elaborate on your "town circle" idea in this game where no town members have the ability to PM. If you truly believe you are right and I am wrong, you should have no problem explaining how it would work to benefit the town.

On April 18 2010 05:42 Zona wrote:

Wait...you were serious about your "everyone is an assassin" post? And you want everyone to roleclaim so early?

First of all, if someone is an assassin, they aren't going to claim assassin. That's just setting a big target on their backs so that the other assassins can kill them. And if we mass roleclaim we just allow the mafia to choose the most valuable power roles to kill at night.

Also - how am I derailing the town? I'm pointing out the fishy parts of BC's posts and posting my own proposed plan with reasoning to back it up.

Here's Bill Murray's plan in spoilers for those that want to reference it. It was so silly I thought it was a joke.
+ Show Spoiler +

On April 21 2010 15:58 Zona wrote:
I've replaced out of this game but I must ask one thing. Bill, why do you have so much vitriol against me? Stuff like:
I don't see you speaking of others the same way.

Anyways, for the record, I asked to be replaced over 28 hours ago.

On April 13 2010 11:26 CynanMachae wrote:
pick me!

(I'm in)

On April 13 2010 12:23 CynanMachae wrote:
Lol Assassins seems interesting

On April 14 2010 07:11 CynanMachae wrote:
Yea, and if the game doesn't end, does the assasin have to stay alive for the remainder of the game?

On April 18 2010 05:43 CynanMachae wrote:
I was under the impression that only the mafia could use PMs. If DTs could PM, would it be kinda an easy way to "roleclaim"? Because if you are allowed to PM then you must be a DT (well, or a mafia I guess). And the PMed person couldn't PM back? That would be weird

On April 18 2010 06:02 CynanMachae wrote:
Well, you don't need to think much about it to see that saying you are an assasin is asking to be killed by the other assassins...

On April 19 2010 08:35 CynanMachae wrote:
Ok I was going to post that TheLardyGoser's vote on Foolishness was just the kind of vote with with weak useless justification that can tell us of a scum who "need" to justifiy his voting with any reason. But then I saw all the other votes before him with similar reasons.

Could people post their justifications here for voting, isntead of in the voting thread?

Also, I don't how people serisouly discuted BM's assassin plan for 5+ pages. What's worth noting about assassins is that they need with the town, there's no better way to avoid lynching than being protown and those rolechecks can benefit us.

On April 19 2010 09:08 CynanMachae wrote:
The problem with killing someone suspicious on Day 1 is that we really don't have much info to work with. Sure, if someone really put himself forward with some really bad play, but most of the time you'll end up with a townie anyway. And lynching a random inactive put some incencitive for those inactives to start posting. If they start posting, mafia can't hide among them, and we get info to work with.

On April 19 2010 09:09 CynanMachae wrote:

+3 hours of PL that makes 10

On April 19 2010 12:08 CynanMachae wrote:

Except that's considering that the detective can PM assassins and vice-versa.

Oh and Incognito playing is certainly gonna change a few things around

On April 20 2010 04:34 CynanMachae wrote:
It's funny how Incognito/BC's posts about suspicious players get spammed off the page and nobody except Radfield replied to them. Anyway, I see the point behind Osmoses and jpak and would have voted for one of them is RoL wasn't getting wagonned so much, but I would also add another analysis on TheLardyGooser.

First of all, most of his earlier posts stand out on how much en always put emphasis that he's new/inexperienced/etc. Like Incognito said, this is a card played quite often by mafia players and town doing this is usually not happening.

His earlier posts (bolding is mine):








The plays the inexperienced by asking for "working strategies"





So in this first posts the them is mostly that he's putting down some info and saying he's new and inexperienced, and throwing support at BM's strategy which isn't making any sense and that I think was mostly just some sort of weird trap from BM to see who would support it.

Then quite later Incognito comes and tell how mafia would usually say that they are ineperienced and new and his analysis on Osmoses. Not many replies on this, then when TheLardyGooser comes again and posts he's now suddenly not inexperienced and he's "among the only ones making sense":







Anyway I think there is no point for me voting for him right now so I'll still wait to see if I need to put down my vote on RoL (I think he's most likely to be scummy than BM, and also quite inactive) or if there is another lynching possibility going later.


Also, where is Zona??

On April 20 2010 04:36 CynanMachae wrote:
Oh I also forgot to point out that I'm hesitating putting my vote on RoL right now because 3 of those voting for him are among the players I find likely red (IntoTheWow, Rage and TheLardyLooser)

On April 20 2010 04:55 CynanMachae wrote:



Lol

On April 20 2010 05:03 CynanMachae wrote:

Also I'd like to point out that that game he was pretty inactive Day 1 and got a lot of suspicion. (and he was town)

On April 20 2010 06:24 CynanMachae wrote:

Gah, it seems I misread the rule, I thought it meant we couldn't have ties. No way we're gonna get 20 votes...

Still, very pro-town behavior you got there.

On April 20 2010 09:13 CynanMachae wrote:

Hm. Don't push that too much. The convincing factor was the clue check on DrH which painted him as red.

On April 20 2010 10:00 CynanMachae wrote:
Jugan said he's not gonna switch earlier because he's sooooo protown

On April 20 2010 10:00 CynanMachae wrote:
Oh nevermind then lol

On April 20 2010 10:03 CynanMachae wrote:

Yes I stand corrected

On April 20 2010 10:17 CynanMachae wrote:
Yay vigilante modkilled.

On April 20 2010 10:40 CynanMachae wrote:
Thanks you Flamewheel for enforcing that rule. No flaming make mafia so much enjoyable to play.

Anyway, nice sidetracking of the town going right now ><

On April 20 2010 15:10 CynanMachae wrote:

Except that we just lynched one.

On April 21 2010 10:11 CynanMachae wrote:
Aww Milller lol Anyway good luck town.

At least I die knowing I was right

On April 13 2010 11:33 tree.hugger wrote:
I'd like to be in.

On April 18 2010 09:59 tree.hugger wrote:
And so it begins.

On April 19 2010 08:42 tree.hugger wrote:


Wait, what?

One: the BM assassin plan has been shown time and time again to be a terrible idea, based on a faulty premise (assassins are pro-town), that no assassin in their right mind would follow. In fact, I don't think it's been brought up for several pages.

So no, we should not be focused on this, because it's a non-issue.

Which leads me to ask: why on earth did you even bring it up? Because this:

"I'm against it, but I think it be best we talk over it."

Is hilariously unbelievable. There's no reason for you to simply raise the issue of the BM 'Plan' when it isn't on the table, if you aren't for it. But you know it's unpopular with some people, (read: everyone) and so to distance yourself from it, you purport to be not in favor. Seriously, what are you trying to pull?

***

Voted for nAi.PrOtOsS - Inactive with regards to contributing, but active with regards to defending himself.

I'll probably change my vote though, we'll see.

On April 19 2010 10:21 tree.hugger wrote:


Here's the problem. There's really no one surefire way to go about it. Often, an inactive player is lynched, and occasionally someone gets bandwagon-ed out if they've been posting stupidly, or made an early mistake. But almost always, it's a shot in the dark.

The point of Day 1 lynches is to get people to debate, get people out in the open, and to get everyone on the record making a potential mafia tell.

On April 19 2010 11:25 tree.hugger wrote:
For all the talk earlier on about the role of assassins in the town, I think we need to understand that while assassin posting should aim towards prolonging the game; the town can't rely on the the assassins to act on the town's behalf. But here's something for dts to think about.

If you role-check an assassin, you should definitely get in contact with them. Remember that:


Which means that finding an assassin can help you find other townies with which you can begin to develop a town circle. Not only that, but since the assassin's objective has absolutely no bearing on the game as a whole, detectives should be able to work in a pro-town way with the assassin. Remember that assassin hits...

... don't count against the assassin's total if they correctly hit another assassin. Therefore, detectives should be able to, if you play your card right, get the assassin to take out some spare mafia as well.

Therefore, DETECTIVES:
A) Rolecheck an assassin
B) Establish contact
C) Establish quid-pro-quo
D) Provide names, receive names
E) Establish more contacts
F) Order hits

Objections to this plan?

On April 19 2010 13:44 tree.hugger wrote:

Oh dammit.

I thought they had been put back in for some reason. I double checked, of course. Obviously.

On April 19 2010 15:07 tree.hugger wrote:

Yeah, I found that discussion too.

On April 20 2010 06:19 tree.hugger wrote:

Well, I found it after the fact.

So uh... I'm running for mayor?



Or just someone disappointed to not get a blue role, or overwhelmed by the amount of posting. Took me a while to get over it too.


I have an objection to this plan too. I failed at reading the thread rules, and the entire thing is not possible.
But actually, I'm pretty confused, seeing as how you asked earlier:


And yet you didn't pick up upon this at all in my post.

No reason to bring this back up, unless you're trying to accuse me of something, which, apparently, you are. Might as well just go out and accuse me of being a 'lying assassin' and then be so good as to tell us all what that means. But honestly, your timing makes no sense.

On April 20 2010 10:27 tree.hugger wrote:
I'm laughing very very hard right now.

On April 20 2010 10:55 tree.hugger wrote:


The argument is not to exclude all Day-1 information, but that it is very difficult to get someone lynched purely on Day-1 evidence. Obviously, the Day-1 evidence is among the most important evidence we have, because we constantly need to be checking people against their previous statements, and it allows us to see patterns of activity.

That said, Day-1 evidence is rarely conclusive enough to nail people immediately. It can be, but it usually isn't. I actually think this first day of posting stands to be reasonably productive, because so many bandwagons started and fizzled, which is a great way to catch mafia. I think Caller's 3/4th vote rule is an oversimplification, but it's always good to look for the tipping point to a bandwagon, and then to take out the opportunists who hopped on, and check them out a little more fully.

On April 20 2010 11:18 tree.hugger wrote:
Oh, after re-reading what I wrote, I feel like I should say that it wasn't meant as a lecture, Incog has way more experience than myself, and it probably better equipped than myself to determine what Day-1 actions were valuable or not.

After I'm done writing my latest philosophy paper, hopefully during some spare time tomorrow, I'll take a look at the voting list.

On April 20 2010 14:01 tree.hugger wrote:


I would've though.

Incognito may have been making a point with that post, but it's not the issue. You were right, Foolishness, there is a ton of information after the first day, and anyone who says otherwise is not thinking clearly.

There were bandwagons against RoL, Rage, and Jugan that broke down, and then a successful bandwagon against jpak. No doubt we have a lot of voting roles to go over. Furthermore, there are enough posts in this thread to go over, and an automated archives to make that even easier. And spam posts can be just as useful as helpful ones.

But here's what is not helping. Veterans who, for all the talk of outreach and recruiting of new players, are playing like idiots. I'm not sure if it's laziness, some pretentious feeling of superiority, or an unwillingness to actually set a good example, but it's counter-productive and obviously anti-town. Meanwhile, it's also really not helpful to post negative comments about this game, and disparage the intelligence or efforts of your fellow players.This is by no means a 'bad game' and it's only these immature comments from people who should know better that is really going any lengths to poison this thread.

As I mentioned before, I'll try to pitch in with some thoughts about the voting tomorrow. We'll see how my schedule works, and how fast I can write about Rawls.

On April 22 2010 04:22 tree.hugger wrote:
Immediate reaction: Ace is vindicated, unfortunately. And yet, we get no closer to reducing the mafia KP or eliminating them.

So basically the worst possible result.





Except....

From the mafia's perspective, Ace was lying about the rolecheck. The mafia could not have known that Caller was the miller, and though they might have couched their views slightly to accommodate for that, it seems highly likely that, in order to burnish their credibility, the mafia would've been among Ace's more vocal skeptics. Therefore, when Ace's claim would've been revealed to be total bull-L then the FoS could be smoothly redirected towards Ace, and the mafia members would look like they had a better handle on the game then others.

So it seems to me that people who doubted Ace most strongly, or accused him of lying may have revealed themselves to be mafia. And one person sticks out at the top of this list, beyond all his scummy posting, and random accusations, I think BloodyC0bbler's seat just got a lot hotter.

On April 22 2010 09:56 tree.hugger wrote:

Strange logic?

Now easy there, you might disagree with my read on the mafia, and I acknowledge in a heartbeat that I think you made some good points, but let's not pretend that what I said has been in any way empirically disproved.

Lets recap: I suggested that, knowing that Ace was wrong, the mafia were more likely than not to conclude that he was making it up. Therefore, it is more likely than not that they in some way covered their tracks, and made sure to not be seen as leading the charge for Caller's death. At the same time, it seems likely to me that some may have taken the opportunity to cash in their knowledge for town-cred.

I mainly used this logic as a way to further point the FoS at BC. Consider how good his position suddenly looks if Ace has found to be making his rolecheck up. Suddenly Ace is the one lynched, and BC looks like the pro-town vet, calling Ace on his bluff.

It's plausible, but again, you've suggested otherwise, and fairly compellingly. That's not to say that one of us is obviously wrong or right, it's merely a difference of opinion that we ought to come back to after the game, and analyze.

On April 24 2010 13:55 tree.hugger wrote:
Lame.

But gg.
Good luck town.

On April 25 2010 13:54 tree.hugger wrote:
Hahahahah, I love this game.

*raises hand from grave, waves, pulls hand back into the earth*



FacepaLm.

On April 13 2010 11:35 d3_crescentia wrote:
Sign me up!

On April 16 2010 08:18 d3_crescentia wrote:
Bill I'm worried that your blogs don't really have all that much substance to them besides containing the OP of this thread...

On April 16 2010 10:30 d3_crescentia wrote:

No I mean I'm worried it might get you banned or warned or something and we would lose you for a few days -_-

On April 17 2010 13:43 d3_crescentia wrote:
Didn't see anything in the rules against this, so...

I am announcing my candidacy as Mayor for this game.

After taking a passive role in several of my past games, it is time for me to step up back into the spotlight, not as possible inactive lurking scum, but this time as a full-fledged inactive lurking town officer, with all of the power and glory that entails. Some of my opponents may bring up my past record, namely calling attention to my first game of mafia ever. Rest assured, dear fellows, that I will never repeat the same mistake - I will NEVER attempt to actually lead the town whilst in office. Furthermore, I will resolve to bring my posts down to the absolute minimum, so that the town can be assured that I am performing my real duties as a politician: embezzling taxes and hiring strippers. Furthermore, the sudden disappearance of our town's Hooker population has left many a john in need, with nowhere else to turn but violence.

Our town's continual war with mafia families has cost us tens, if not hundreds of lives over the past several years, and yet peace has yet to be brokered. Why should we continue to fight if all it creates is unnecessary bloodshed? My friends, I will say nay to this senseless war and return back to the real issues, and if you will join me in my crusade, I will strive to put a Hooker on every corner of Liquidia!

Elect d3_crescentia, for a prostitute for every Townie!!

On April 17 2010 13:47 d3_crescentia wrote:
my point exactly

On April 17 2010 14:08 d3_crescentia wrote:
I know there's no Mayor; that's why I ran for it. It was a joke -_-

On April 18 2010 07:42 d3_crescentia wrote:
Good morning (or evening), fellow Liquidians. Some basic conclusions that we can make based on the ruleset:

1) The number of Assassins in this game is either: at least 2. It wouldn't make sense only if there was only 1 Assassin, and there being zero in this game would make even less sense.
2) Assumption: Mafia KP is Number/2 rounded up. Then, if we play strictly by Lynches/NK, we would have to lynch a Mafia by Day 4. We are then required to have 100% accuracy with our lynches, and the REQUIRED use of double lynches on subsequent days.

Therefore it should be safe to use one of our double-lynches on Day 3, so long as we don't suffer any accidental townie casualties by Vigis or Assassins. The problem is that it shortens the town lifespan by about a day if we fail to lynch. Generally speaking, Day 3 is the turning point of most games so it seems reasonable to vote for a double then, but I'd rather wait and see how people are posting so far.

Things that I have noticed:
1) BM completely not reading how Assassins work with his outlandish plan. They have limited NKs and rolechecks.
2) BC, we can't establish DT circles in this game because there are no PMs allowed, so this strategy seems pretty invalid as well.

On April 18 2010 09:22 d3_crescentia wrote:
citizen, your banner has failed us.

I think everything said post role-PM should be considered, though obviously we shouldn't hold things against people if they haven't posted before now.

jpak, it is currently Day 1. Perhaps we should be seeing you now.

On April 18 2010 20:56 d3_crescentia wrote:
madnessman, there's nothing else to talk about because it's the only thing we can grab on to. No one else is posting.

Bill, how do you suppose your plan deals with the fact that no Assassin in their right mind would actually choose to follow it? The biggest powers that an Assassin has is anonymity and by relinquishing that it seems completely foolish for ALL of them to leave their victory at the mercy of the town. Plan would only work if there was a large enough number of assassins in the game (at the very least 3-4) so that there would be CLEAR benefits from being town-aligned.

Maybe we should go ahead and lynch one of these 'useless' players just so we can show people that we're not fucking around. Generally I agree with Ace's opinion that we shouldn't really tolerate bad posting especially in a game this large. If everyone's a bad poster it just gives mafia that much of a better chance to hide amongst them.

On April 18 2010 21:56 d3_crescentia wrote:

I haven't spotted these; who are they? Millers don't know that they're Millers. It's beyond idiocy to me why someone would claim it - it's just bad play overall no matter what your alignment is.

On April 19 2010 03:55 d3_crescentia wrote:
Abenson the assassins have to kill each other before the town-mafia conflict is decided.

I find myself inclined to agree with Zona at this point - it's more beneficial for assassins to play pro-town in the beginning - rather, assassins playing pro-town in the beginning is the CONSEQUENCE of them acting in their own best interests. Their actions should be geared towards prolonging the game as long as possible, which in the beginning of the game is pro-town (doing role-checks, killing scum) and towards the late game is maybe a little pro-mafia, more pro-themselves.

The number of assassins in the game also influences the kinds of actions they have. Mostly I've been thinking with the assumption that they have enough hits to take care of everyone else, or ~3 Assassins. If we had much more than 3, then we'd have a lot of rogue KP floating around which makes me inclined to think there aren't many vigis or DTs in the game, and that the assassins would have a much much larger role in affecting town policy once they're out of checks and kills.

On April 19 2010 07:59 d3_crescentia wrote:
Oh cool, the finger-pointing has started. I've always found these Day 1 arguments sort of silly, but I do believe I've discerned the purpose as to them now.

Between Caller and Ace, I'm doubting Caller's mafia. Given there was a reason why we kept his trap shut for most of WaW it doesn't seem out of character as far as his posting goes, though I take issue that he'd go with a "if he flips green then you lynch me" play.

Actually, I think we should lynch Jugan for these fine little posts that he keeps dangling in front of our eyes - always the slim lines of text, like a slim spaghetti-strap sliding down a shoulder, as our good friend Day[9] would put it - always teasing, but never any satisfaction.

Okay, that's enough of that. In addition, there's that vote he put on KF91 that makes absolutely no sense at all. Any comments of substance you'd like to make there?

On April 19 2010 08:01 d3_crescentia wrote:
Let's add love1another to that list while we're at it. If you're going to vote, say something in the thread instead about why you decided on who!

On April 19 2010 08:43 d3_crescentia wrote:
TheLardyGooser/Abenson, let's stop trying to go back to that. The BM assassin plan is worthless. Here's why:

First half of the list hits the second half of the list on Night 1. Mafia puts all of their hits on list 2. We don't know who hit whom unless the Assassins step forward to roleclaim, at which point each Assassin instantly knows who all of the other Assassins are, and they all try to kill each other with no guarantee of individual victory. Therefore none of them will claim. Alternatively, the mafia can choose to put all of their hits on list 1 and then the Assassins on list 1 are revealed and quickly eliminated by their peers. Lastly, it allows for dumb ploys like a mafia claiming Assassin because the person across the list from them died.

Bill was right in a way; this plan only really works if everyone (or, rather, a large section of the game) is an Assassin because this kind of plan only works when everyone has KP to use.

TheLardyGooser, a mass roleclaim is just foolish at this point in time, because it singles out Blues to be sniped if they so decide to post honestly - and if not, then we're no better off than where we are now.

Good night, folks.

On April 19 2010 20:37 d3_crescentia wrote:
Alright, quick morning post before I go to work. I'm glad Jugan is starting to speak up. Here's the list of semi-inactives again, stolen from IntotheWow from some pages ago with some modifications -
+ Show Spoiler +

Notes: I've removed Jugan, Incognito and KF91 from this list, though I'm still a bit iffy on KF91 as he hasn't said much recently. At any rate, this is a lot of people not saying or doing much.

JadeFist isn't on this list either since he recently posted, BUT it's interesting to see what he posted:

But whether or not someone is a forum veteran is irrelevant to if they're actually Mafia (and in that game decafchicken wasn't ANYWHERE near as active as Caller's being). If that were the case why not vote for Ace or Incognito or RoL? Let's not have any bandwagons going on here, whether they be from uninformed townies or scum redder than this delicious Sriracha sauce I've got here. Don't fade away into the darkness just yet; we've got more to talk about.

On April 20 2010 03:59 d3_crescentia wrote:
Posting from work, which is not blocking TL today. I am getting increasingly concerned that there are 10+ inactives lurking out there and that we have 25 votes though they're entirely scattered across the board.

Who are our main candidates for lynch, and who's voting for them?

1. Caller - Ace, nai.Protoss, Jadefist

I don't really see what Ace saw in Caller's posts, and with him not around at this point in time to explain his accusations I don't really think this lynch is really going to go anywhere. I've already expressed my concerns about Jadefist's vote here, but there really isn't much to do with that. As for nai.Protoss it just seems he's vote-retaliating, but that's hardly of use to anyone right now.

2. Bill Murray - motbob, AcrossFiveJulys, meeple

Alright, now for some real meat-and-potatoes. BM was the author of that fine work, the Assassin plan, and thanks to the heroic actions of our fellow townies we've beaten that horse to death. Seems that all of the votes have been due to that one plan, and no one's really bothered to change since. Then there's Radfield's concerns, which are common to games with Bill as a participant, but does that change the fact that they've been equally valid across all aforementioned games? Supposedly, he's improved in the last few games, but where's the proof in this game?

3. Jugan - love1another, myself, Scaramanga, jpak

I'm actually very, very concerned about this group of voters. I stated my original reasons (bad posting/semi-inactivity) for voting Jugan, and now that he's actually making an effort to participate I'm turning my attention to other inactives to try and get them to post. But the fact that love1another and jpak haven't been posting in the thread about their vote reasoning is disconcerting. Scaramanga's reasoning feels similar to mine, but I do wish he'd post more so we can keep an eye on him as well.

4. RoL - Fishball, Rage, IntoTheWow, Falcynn, DarthThienAn, TheLardyGooser

As funny as getting a gang-rape train on RoL would be after his little post in the vote thread, I feel bad for the guy, since it'd be the the second game in a row that this shit's happened to him. I suppose that's what he gets for not posting, but I'll have reservations about following through with the lynch if he actually decides to speak up.

Here's what I propose: we forget about Caller/Jugan for now, and the town consolidates its votes on either RoL or BM, so we don't face a no-lynch scenario at the end of the day. I'll be voting for BM currently, because I've yet to see a difference in his play so far.

On April 20 2010 05:31 d3_crescentia wrote:
A jpak is fine too.


Point taken.

I'm trying to encourage people to vote well-before the deadline and to give them suggestions as how to do it. I don't want a repeat of Mafia XVI where suddenly 7 townies die due to inactivity and there's no way for town to come back; seeing this many inactives right now is really bothering me. I'd also prefer there to be a lynch so we can at least get SOME information but I'd rather have everyone vote and a no-lynch than a lynch and 10 dead inactives.

Here's something I'd like to point out while I'm still here:
love1another has been active on TL recently, but not active here. Why?

On April 20 2010 06:03 d3_crescentia wrote:

Precisely why; he voted (with me) for you with no stated reasoning at all. Not exactly sure how I feel about that.



Which Mafia XVI are you referring to? There were two. Also, don't let it bother you. You yourself are barely active, and it's only the first day.

On April 20 2010 11:19 d3_crescentia wrote:
Some quick thoughts on our situation before I go to bed:
1. We can confirm that there are at least 3 assassins in this game (and I'm guessing fewer DTs/Vigis as a consequence/balance factor)
2. But, this doesn't really change our lynch timeline, as Day 3 is going to be pretty critical unless we have a ridiculous amount of assassins in this game
3. Get RaGe checked tonight. If he's scum, then we can lynch him; if not then we keep an eye on him. Ace, put my $50 on RaGe, for all it's worth.

And no, judging by the OP Assassins don't cause the game to end if they fulfill their victory conditions.

On April 20 2010 21:39 d3_crescentia wrote:
Quick pre-work post; probably won't be able to post that much until late. It's a good point in time to collect our suspicions and accusations so we can prioritize DT checks. We can check RaGe since we've got a lot of people pointing the finger of suspicion at him currently. Then there's others that have been pointed out like Osmoses or unexplained voters like love1another etc. but checking them probably won't give us any substantial information. Also... Zona's been noticeably absent, though he's probably been busy programming - I'd like to see his thoughts on the situation.

On April 21 2010 12:19 d3_crescentia wrote:
Alright, so we're lynching meeple because he's an indecisive flip-flopper speaking in ambiguous language? Considering Jugan was just modkilled and flipped green, I don't think we should take his 'team player' comment to seriously. I like Incognito's idea about forced post analysis, though I'm still digesting the results of Night 1. Seriously, 3 blues dead and no one bats an eye? Granted we (or rather, Foolishness) got TheLardyGooser, but I'm still feeling things are a bit more stressed than I'd like going into Day 2.

Summary of arguments from dead people, taken from the archives. I'm fairly sure that the archive needs to be updated, so it could be updated with any other posts in the thread, but I'd rather sleep first.

CynanMachae
- suspects TheLardyGooser
- pro-inactive lynching
- agrees with Incognito on Osmoses
- dislikes RoL bandwagon

Radfield
- contributes to double-lynch discussion (use double lynch early?)
- advocates inactive Day 1 lynch
- anti-BM plan, suspicious of him
- takes notes of particular bandwagoners (darththienan, meeple, infundibulum, scamp, jadefist)
- speaks in defense of RaGe
- FoS on AcrossFiveJulys

Foolishness
- is fairly critical of meeple re: lynches (though this was a misunderstanding?)
- FoS on TheLardyGooser (and eventually killed him)
- misunderstanding between him/Incognito about spam posting
- FoS on RaGe for previous discussion

[nyc]hobbes
- against double-lynch on Day 3
- argument with Jugan
- for lynching inactives on Day 1

Any common threads here? Both Foolishness and CynanMachae spoke out against TheLardyGooser; Foolishness and Radfield both took note of meeple - albeit for different reasons, and one of those reasons potentially being faulty. More importantly though, I think Radfield had the right idea with looking at the vote list for bandwagoners. We're discussing meeple right now, whom I feel we have a good case for; I'd also like to look at Darth, Scamp and Inf, all of whom I'll leave for the morning unless some kind soul decides to do it for me. As for JadeFist... well, no matter what color he flips his action was just really, really DUMB and he should be probably be killed for it.

On April 21 2010 21:27 d3_crescentia wrote:
Good morning; sorry if this seems a bit rushed, but I've got less than 10 minutes before I need to leave and I probably won't be posting until the evening again. Most of my post will be some quick thoughts on KF91/Scamp/Inf/Darth, as I said I was going to do last night. As for the current situation before us, given Ace's Detective claim last night and his recent claim that Caller checked red this one is actually a fairly simple decision, unless Ace is bullshitting us all.

Analysis of KF91:
+ Show Spoiler +

Brief thoughts on Scamp, Inf, Darth:
+ Show Spoiler +

On April 21 2010 21:39 d3_crescentia wrote:
Last thing before I leave:

Given how erratic he's been so far, I wouldn't be surprised.

On April 22 2010 10:42 d3_crescentia wrote:
Since there's a rather large surplus of time before the day actually ends, I think we should turn to who we want to be lynching tomorrow and who we want to check tonight. We've had RaGe and meeple on the chopping block before, and here and there people have suggested inactives and the like we could look at. It kind of continues to irk me how many people are still blindly voting for Caller (even though he's been LYNCHED already) and going for double-vote. In particular, JadeFist - who's already been noted for dumb/inattentive play in my book, and love1another who's posted only 3 times so far, only one of which has been after the game has started.

Current thoughts on the situation: Ace is DT, small probability that he's Assassin, very very small probability that he isn't. At the very least we can trust his checks even if his judgments aren't spot on (though Caller hadn't really been making much sense at the time). At this point we really need to look at the dynamics BC/RoL. I'd also like to go back to judging Meeple since I thought his indecisive language could be a tell, so a follow-up on that would be good.

@AcrossFiveJulys, a few things to point out about your logic of lists. Does it occur to you that the mafia would deliberately spread out votes as to avoid being lumped together? Furthermore, does it occur to you that we'd have some mafia on the first list to speed up the Caller lynch since we're operating on a majority-lynch system? Let's be fair here, the majority of players on the first list are likely pro-town, but it seems odd that you would advocate dropping the first list altogether from analysis. Instead we should probably be comparing a combination of vote/post/activity analysis as per each list. What are your thoughts?

Good night, everybody.

On April 22 2010 10:47 d3_crescentia wrote:
One more comment/question before I turn in for the night: I did a quick count and think we've reached the needed majority to have a double-lynch (or maybe just 1-2 votes more?). Is the day still going to go on to Friday?

On April 23 2010 09:41 d3_crescentia wrote:

Wait a second, RoL claimed DT? When did that happen? Is it in reference to this post? ZBot hasn't been updated and I've been in bed sick today, so I'm asking y'all to forgive me if I missed something critical recently.

On April 24 2010 02:24 d3_crescentia wrote:
So as I understand it, we're shooting BC and his flip determines RoL's role/alignment. Supposing BC flips green (not Miller), we lynch RoL for lying; if BC flips red/Miller then RoL is in the clear. Third possibility - both BC and RoL are assassins, in which case it's a moot point, except for the fact that we're no closer to lynching any mafia. Actually, I find it kind of odd that we would have >2 DTs in this game. Jury's still out for me on whether or not we have 3 Medics in the game (counting the one that's dead) but I like the idea of randomly picking a amongst Ace/Incog/RoL to protect.

Some points to consider:
- BC hasn't posted for a while, whether that's due to some form of protest against the 'idiocy' of the town or for some other reason. Given all of the suspicion laid upon him recently I'd expect him to be posting more, not less if he's actually mafia (but maybe he WANTS us to think that?!) so it's hard to say.
- Inf brought up a good point a few pages back, that Vigis don't work the same way they do in other games - they only have ONE hit at night. So don't do as Ace says and stack all your hits on BC or else we'd be wasting shots. Actually, that makes me start to wonder about Ace. Hmm...

That's it for now; going to be out for the rest of the day. Hopefully I'll be back in time to see the night post, and this weekend should be primetime for some rigorous analysis.

On April 25 2010 04:45 d3_crescentia wrote:
@Ace: How about this - I actually thought Caller was innocent. Guess it means my scumdar's better than yours?

Actual reasoning: out-of-game behavior comparison, back from when me and Caller were on the same Mafia team in WaW. In chat he kept suggesting ridiculous things (you might even remember some of them) to say or do, and we kept telling him no... in comparison, this game he was ridiculously chatty and playing far more aggressively, like he had nothing to lose. I didn't really care that he used improper terminology or whatever but I guess it's because I'm not that careful of a reader.

As for RaGe, I missed his post where he said to keep accusations out of Day 1, read some other arguments against it and then agreed with said arguments. I was doubly wrong, since I didn't actually read RaGe's post as carefully as I should have in the first place, and then failed to read the responses carefully to see if there was some sort of discrepancy.

That being said, if you'd like to check me to prove how useless I am, go ahead.

@Korynne: my reasoning for Day 3 lynch was a mathematical inference based on having 2 Assassins, not based on any sense of good play. We can afford to double mislynch on Day 3, and in the case of 2 Assassins we needed to hit 1 Mafia. With 3, 4 it would have been less safe in that we would need a double and hit both, but I was hoping that by then we would have been able to root out some mafia.

Going to eat breakfast, brb. We're going to need a plan for tonight/tomorrow.

On April 25 2010 13:19 d3_crescentia wrote:

Maybe you should stop pointing the finger at other people and actually post something yourself? I've been waiting since Day 1 for you to actually start looking for scum and what have you done since then? Make some half-assed post about how you're going to 'step up' because no one else is, while claiming you're green every other line? Hypocrisy at its' finest here. Then there's an amusing little diversion about how Ace actually could have been an Assassin - but it's not like it really matters, as even you yourself note. What ARE you good for, then?

You know what, maybe you actually ARE town this game and just trolling around. Maybe you'll be town next game as well, and maybe for the one after that. But one of these days - and the day WILL come, mark my words, Bill - you'll turn out to be as red as a baboon's behind, and full of just as much BS. And on that day, you'll let something slip, or you'll make a mistake, or someone won't put up with your crap anymore - and suddenly you'll realize that you're very, very screwed.

And I'll be waiting for that time to come, just so I can enjoy every moment of watching you squirm as it all comes crashing down around you.

Mark my words, Bill.

---

Current thoughts:

First, Ace's list. The task he's asked everyone to do is to pore over Incognito, Scamp and madnessman's posts before/after the jpak vote while he looks to clear the first 7 of the list. By the way, Ace, l2count - there's 10 on your final list, not 8; and then, CynanMachae is dead. Since BC flipped Miller and not mafia the validity of the reasoning for analyzing this list becomes slightly weaker, though it's still a good place to start as far as checking people goes.

Actually, let's take a look at the last three on the list - specifically, madnessman has a couple of rather large gaps in posting. The first one is around *gasp* the jpak vote. After that, he puts his doubts on Ace's claim, before doing a complete 180 in opinion as soon as Ace names Caller as mafia. He makes a few one liners after that and then vanishes until attention was brought back to him by Ace's list. And even then, he comments on why he voted jpak again as opposed to anything else before then.

Scamp - I am thinking Ace wanted to call to attention to the "either it's jpak or nothing, so I'll go with jpak" comment and subsequent silence afterward. I don't really read much into this comment, actually. What actually bothers me more is the lack of posting here.

Incognito - I actually don't see much to latch onto here as far as the jpak vote goes. As for recent events... Incognito claims he took a hit last night. Depending on what he actually claims this can confirm the presence of a medic in the game, which is good, and the protect goes on Ace; at the very least we get less dead people and thus a little more leeway to lynch. While we're talking about Incognito - let's stay at least a little skeptical of his claim, though based on my gut I'd like trust him.

Second, our plan for tonight: medic(s) protect Ace. At best he lives, checks someone else, and we only lose two townies. Somewhere in the middle is losing 3 Townies; somewhere after that is losing our medic. Worst of all would be losing our medic AND DT (though we only suffer two deaths then).

Let's take that worst-case scenario. We'd be 11-6 with a double-lynch on the way, and not as much information to go off of. Missing both lynches would be completely unacceptable; going 1-1 is still winnable though we'd have to have the town completely unified and go for a double-lynch again. Stop. Is it advantageous to use a double-lynch tomorrow? Only so long as we can get two mafia. Do we have two candidates for lynch? Ace had mentioned a mass-roleclaim tomorrow, which I think if implemented should help greatly in that regard... but do we still want to go through with a double? I'm not sure anymore - anyone else want to chime in on this?

Let me go back to Ace's list for a second:

Fishball
KF91
d3_crescentia
Osmoses
meeple
BrownBear
Incognito
Scamp
madnessman

Both Osmoses and madnessman have been somewhat MIA; I am thinking there's something odd about this. Osmoses has cited that he's going to be busy a while back; I'd like to hear from him before we make any judgments. My thoughts on madnessman you can read above. Fishball's accusations look particularly questionable, as Ace is pretty much all-but-confirmed. I'm thinking the latter two are the ones we should be looking at in particular from this list, and maybe Osmoses if he doesn't check in with us soon.

Last thing I want to mention - though I've been looking at this from Ace's approach, I think there's a different way of going about it, which I'll try sometime tomorrow morning.

On April 26 2010 07:03 d3_crescentia wrote:

I was hoping you'd come back and post something that would be a bit more thought out, but alas - my hopes were dashed, and you're going to have to go on my super special awesome list.

First of all, I'm not entirely sure we should actually double-lynch anymore. We don't seem to have any candidates; after tonight's deaths we will have SOME additional information to work with but I'm not entirely sure if it's ideal for double-lynch. Secondly, we have some pretty accurate information already about whatever blues we have left in the game - 1 Medic and 1 DT (Ace), likely no more Vigilantes/Hatters and MAYBE a Veteran. The point shouldn't be to individually check everyone but to narrow down our list of suspicions and hammer those people. We can potentially solve conflicting blue claims by double-lynch; then we can narrow down between our jpak list and those that claim townie.

What happens if it draws out our medic into the open (assuming he/she survives tonight)? Tomorrow we'd look at an 11-6 situation knowing two people are clear at the very least. Ace has been pretty good at finding scum but at this point we need to watch who's pointing fingers and who ISN'T pointing fingers at whom. This is the kind of approach that I was thinking about taking in regards to analysis, but I've been holed up in bed for most of the day, and there's actually a good amount of time before the next Day comes up.

On April 26 2010 08:16 d3_crescentia wrote:

Sorry, I am a pretty bad chronic misreader, apparently. This is all in reference to the fragment quoted below:

I thought Ace wanted us to check out three peoples' posts and see if there was anything scummy to note during the jpak lynch, though now that I reread it he was actually talking about before the vote.


I thought one of our medics died. Incognito claimed he took a hit... did someone else claim?

On April 26 2010 09:44 d3_crescentia wrote:

Still somewhat confused about this. Who said something about a second hit?

On April 27 2010 14:20 d3_crescentia wrote:
Okay. Let's start with some numbers here, as numbers are good and can't really be contested:

If our lynch hits a mafia today, it's 12-5 into 9-5 in which case we need to lynch at least one mafia tomorrow. If we vote for a double and go 1-1, that's still okay for us because we're alive the day afterward at 6-4. Not the best condition, but at least it looks winnable. In the worst case scenario, we lynch a townie today and we're at 11-6. Then, we lose 3 townies and get 8-6, and then we absolutely NEED to hit a double-lynch to get to 8-4, and then we need to hit the rest of our lynches to win.

This depends on absolute 100% participation from all townies, because then it should become pretty obvious that where the mafia are hiding amongst the less active.

Now, let's look at motbob below:

Analysis of motbob:
- Rejects the BM plan
- Makes a useless post about how he doesn't think about saying anything
- Contributes a post about how mafia votes are likely divided
- Is a negative Nancy for saying we can't win at this point
- Corrects/defends himself in regard to posting times

Notes on the voting record: Day 1 vote on Bill Murray, Day 2 vote on Caller, Day 3 on both Inf and BC. Seems fairly in-line with the majority vote except for Day 1, but since he hasn't really been posting enough to explain himself it's more than a little suspicious. His position on the vote list is around the middle for Days 2 and 3, but he doesn't vote for double-lynch on Day 2. Given our discussion of shooting BC occurred during the night it's more than a little troubling to me that he'd miss out on the vote. Then there's this comment:
Which suggests to me that he could have had an inkling that Caller actually *was* green (technically black). Of note here is that Scaramanga agrees with him, and Scara's also been MIA and on a number of suspicion lists. But, can we actually positively conclude anything from this information? Maybe not; he might just have an actual reason for being less active. The matter of the fact is that we're significantly short on information as it stands, so it does us better to actually accuse based on what hunches we have and analyze our responses... and it just so happens that I've got a hunch.

The FoS is poking you, motbob. Your response better be damn convincing of your innocence.

Something else of note: Fishball has been voting for him, and then BC and Caller on the day before. Since the latter two actually turned out to be town, I'm going to do a little search through their archived posts to see if there's anything to hint at their reasoning for motbob besides "I'm getting lynched so I'll waste my vote". As for Fishball, he's been voting for him two days in a row, and with very little explanation but also very little incentive. He hasn't been actively trying to push for motbob in the thread, so either he's Mafia trying to get away with placing dumb votes or there's actually something there that he should share with the rest of us.

Here's my problem with this kind of analysis Korynne suggested - is it really the best thing to be doing? So far it just seems that we'll end up with a bunch of inactive people calling other people out on their own inactivity in this analysis exercise, and though we'll suddenly have more posts I don't think they're quite going to tell us what we need to know. What we really need here is focus. If we decisively conclude that none of our active players have the potential to be Mafia, we should then move on to the less active players.

Going to sleep on this and hope a plan comes to me...

On April 28 2010 01:01 d3_crescentia wrote:

Do something drastic? You've got to be kidding, or are *you* just trying to rush the town along on a mislynch?

The only mailed fist I'll be bringing down is on the skulls of scum. I've noted in a post above that we're in a better position than I thought we would be - the difference between 12-6 and 11-6 is that in 12-6 we can actually afford to lynch a townie today so long as that tomorrow we would have all the information we need to lynch two. Whereas in 11-6 if we fucked up today, the game would be virtually over.

What you are saying is very painfully obvious. I was operating under the idea if we mass-roleclaim today we resolve any conflicting claims between blues using a double-lynch, starting with the scummier-looking person. I've since changed my mind, if you actually cared to read the thread.


Are *you* being purposefully useless? I guess that's the real question here - is your nonsensical posting because you're actually nonsensical, or because you want to hide something?

The kind of analysis I wanted to get to is this: we check our active posters for information - voting records, post histories, and thoughts on other players. If there's some sort of egregious inconsistency in their accusations (i.e. an active player is completely ignoring the existence of another heavily suspicious player) then we have something significant to discuss. If we can get all of our accusations out in the open we can actually zero in on common suspicions.


My verdict: you don't contribute in a game where already half of our posters are somewhat useless or nonsensical, and you respond only to defend yourself and point the finger back at me. In short, it doesn't matter whether or not you're town or scum, because it's people like you that will cost us the game.

On April 29 2010 07:46 d3_crescentia wrote:
We're grasping at straws here, after BrownBear flipped blue.

Who do we have as candidates? Scaramanga? nbtnbt5? I've outlined in a previous post that we should be okay lynching a townie today so long as we get two tomorrow, but the logic no longer applies because BrownBear's already dead. We're now looking at a situation where if we mislynch today we lose, even if we manage to hit both lynches tomorrow and all of our subsequent ones.

As for Scamp, it's posting like this:

That gets you cast under suspicion. It essentially amounts to "I guess Scaramanga could be mafia but maybe not??"

On April 13 2010 11:55 KF91 wrote:
I would like to play :D

On April 18 2010 01:50 KF91 wrote:
Ah, the game starts just as soon as I have to go to work -.-

I'll be sharing my thoughts when I get back (In like 5 hours).As to what Radfield had said, I think inactivity might be a better criteria to look (Not saying that should be our only criteria) since a quiet, non-active townie is not going to help the town win.

On April 18 2010 06:29 KF91 wrote:


I think Radfield is right; we should use our double lynch earlier.

Although people might argue that we have less of a chance to hit one mafia with the double lynch, it also lowers the chances of hitting a blue role if we do it on day one or two, instead of waiting until day 3 or 4.

On April 18 2010 07:09 KF91 wrote:


I don't think so; because the later the game goes on, the ratio between mafia and townie gets closer to 1:1. So saying if we don't get any mafia kills at all for the first few days, mafia could easily rig the second lynch to kill a townie they want dead.

On April 18 2010 07:26 KF91 wrote:


I don't think there will be any clues in the day posts with the deaths, unless you guys are referring to the reactions of people after the night post. O.o

On April 18 2010 08:57 KF91 wrote:


First of all:


And second, how are we supposed to believe you that you got the role that you usually get? From what I can search, you've only played in Incognito's Mafia XVI?

On April 18 2010 09:10 KF91 wrote:
I think that they could be analyzed? There were a lot of arguments that were going on; so I think they could be used for the earlier days, but as the game goes on, I don't think they'll be of much use :/

On April 18 2010 23:28 KF91 wrote:
I still don't understand how BM's plan will work (properly). Isn't it a big RC if people decide to follow through with it? Personally, I'm not that against a mass RC, mostly because it has a potential to help the town more than the mafia (If DTs are competent and can actually help), but on the other hand, mafia could easily kill off multiple blue roles in a single night (Assuming medics are not doing their jobs correctly).

And what if some of the people decide not to follow along with your plan and the assassins kill whoever they want? How will we be able to weed out the assassins/reds from there?

On April 19 2010 09:10 KF91 wrote:
Wow, a lot to catch up on -.- But here we go:



Very true. But I really don't think that's the trend that is happening in this game. Mostly because people are generally lazy during Day 1; there's nothing to work with usually and posting could result in a lynch. I'm leaning more towards the inactivity = suspicion of mafia, but I guess that would put me in the spotlight as well since I haven't posted that much since the game started.



I'm sorry I'm talking about BM's plan again, but I just wanted to share a bit more of my thoughts...

Hmm... BM could be an assassin, but you never know with him because he's so... random XD (Not saying you're bad though BM! :D) I still see the flaws in BM's plan (Mostly because some people will not follow through with who they're supposed to kill), and I believe we should not follow through with it.

But if by some chance the majority does agree with this plan, we should only implement it for Day/Night 1. As the game progresses, I think it would be harder to role claim with that plan, mostly because, it would be very easy for any blue/red/assassin to frame others.

These questions are mostly directed at BM, but anyone could answer them if they want: How would medics/DTs/Mad Hatters do their job with your plan? Would DTs role check their targeted person? Would medics be saving anyone? Would Mad Hatters hold on to their bombs?



Hmm... Looking at the time stamp between Caller's post and your post, I'm assuming you've had time to read his post before making a reply.

Looking at what you said, combined with Caller's post, an inexperienced mafia would be posting to get out of inactivity so he does not get lynched and would look like an inexperienced townie trying not to get lynched. After Caller's post, an inexperienced mafia would not be willing to act along with what he said. But at the same time, you have posted and given not that much opinion yourself and agreed with other people for the most part (Which is what Caller described a mafia would do). It kinda looks like you're trying to avoid the spotlight of attention, but at the same time, you're messing up so people are noticing you even more.

So this is the list of people "inactives" who have posted after Caller's post:
- Fishball (Haven't expressed much thoughts, but according to him, he's only been up for about 2 hours)
- TheLardyGooser (Pushing for a new plan)
- tree.hugger (Talks about Abenson)
- Roffles (Just woke up from OSL tiebreakers)

Actually from what I can see, I think there's a higher chance that the mafia will be hiding in the inactives at this current time.

And to Jugan: What's all this hate towards me? :O You claim that I was bashing on you, but I wasn't; I was just responding/expressing my thoughts in response your post.

I have some suspicion against nAi at this point, but it's not concrete enough for me to vote him. I'll vote once a bit more comes it. Or if nothing suspicious happens, I guess we could just pick a random inactive and lynch him? :/

On April 20 2010 03:50 KF91 wrote:
Alright, sorry I've been away, I'll write up a post with my thoughts before the day ends.

On April 20 2010 04:26 KF91 wrote:
Alright, I know RaGe suggested a ban on the analysis posts until Day 2 (And I'm fine with the plan he proposed of lynching RoL, since he hasn't been here at all :/), but I'm just making this post I guess as a reference for Day 2.

Jugan

Most noticeable is the posting difference in Jugan. He somehow goes from spamming one-liners to actually phrasing his thoughts into readable sentences:

He goes from this:



to this:

+ Show Spoiler +

But not much has changed; he really isn't giving much ideas towards the town, but mainly arguing with people in the game. I'm not sure if I'm 100% right, but the turning point of his posting behaviour is after Caller pretty much abuses him verbally. What's interesting to note is that Jugan has little to no interaction with Caller after this. (Rarely mentions him)

I honestly don't really understand why he continues to hate on me for being "annoying" when I (In my point of view) haven't done anything to a far extent to annoy him. And yet he continues hold his vote on me :/ Plus, please try to calm down and try not to bring emotions into the game too much (Mostly directed at your bashing on IntoTheWow)

What Incognito Said About Osmoses

As to what Incognito had said about Osmoses, that's a good observation made on him, but I don't think Osmoses is trying to pull off what you said. From what I can see, I think Osmoses is putting in effort and trying to contribute to the town. We should wait until he posts a little bit more so that we can get a concrete reason to lynch him (If he seems scummier by the post).

BC's Post About Inactives



I think Rage is doing something right here and he doesn't seem that scummy to me. The town needed a plan, and here we have one. It's better that the town lynches a random and hope to get a mafia than no lynch at all. Remember, although the chances of getting a mafia with a random lynch is around 20%, the chances of getting a mafia with no lynch is 0%.

But I do have to agree with you about RoL. When I played with him in the Micro-Mafia, he was very active; and now, it honestly feels like he died or something O.o

And finally to Rage, BM is always like that; try to take it as the comedic side of mafia games. XD

On April 20 2010 04:34 KF91 wrote:
I'm saving my FoS until Day 2, because I think right now it's more important for the town that we get that 20 votes towards one person rather than start pointing fingers at each other.

On April 20 2010 04:57 KF91 wrote:
Alright, now that we can see that RoL is back and he is trying to catch up on what has been happening, I am changing my vote to jpak. Agreeing with Infun, I believe that RoL can be asset to the town because he is able to give detailed insight.

Jpak on the other hand has not posted anything useful at all. (I think he's only made 4 posts so far post-Day1?)

On April 20 2010 06:03 KF91 wrote:


Whoa, I completely missed this edit...

Scara, do you mind explaining yourself for this? The sentence you added in was completely unnecessary and it could have been made as a double post if you REALLY wanted to say it.

On April 20 2010 06:12 KF91 wrote:
Alright, with a little less than 4 hours until voting is closed, I think we should decide now to choose who to lynch; so that it gives time to players who are away at this moment to see what we're up to. And also it will reduce the amount of people who will switch their vote at the last minute.

Right now, I'm guessing the votes will be either against: jpak or RaGe.

I personally think it would be beneficial to the town if we lynch jpak during Day 1 (Even if it means if we have to wait until Day 2 to lynch RaGe if we really want to), mostly due to that fact that jpak has given nothing at all that is beneficial to the town, while RaGe has at least given us a starting point as to who to lynch.

If I counted correctly, RaGe and jpak both have six votes against them at this time.

On April 20 2010 06:19 KF91 wrote:


BM, remember that the micro-mafia game was the "first" mafia game I played in, and it's a completely different setting than this one. Since this game is more active and there are more people than the micro one, I cannot sit down to carefully analyze through each post for each person just for Day 1. There's too much to work with and I personally think that it would be a waste of time.

When it reaches Day 3 or so (We would have about 10 less players than right now), I think it would be more manageable for me to start analyzing and accusing people.

And the reason I have smaller posts at this moment is I really believe that we are going to end with a no lynch on this day if the activity does not stop. The closest we have to a majority at this moment is six votes on RaGe and jpak. So I'm just trying to get people back into the thread to read and post and maybe eventually we'll get that lynch going.

On April 20 2010 09:59 KF91 wrote:
I'm really hoping an inactive switches last minute...

On April 21 2010 06:29 KF91 wrote:
As to what's been happening with Caller and Rage, I think Caller is either overreacting or he's mafia. Personally, I believe that a person who can defend themselves without freaking out seems more green than red.

In a normal situation, a mafia (More the inexperienced mafia) that is being blamed would feel more nervous and therefore would post short, erratic posts trying to defend themselves. But what Rage has been doing is almost the complete opposite of that. His posts are composed well and I think that he defended himself correctly.

As to his "Well if x acted like this in a previous mafia game, and y is now acting similar to x, he is mafia too!" statements, I believe that it has now come up twice in his posts. Once to defend himself (About the nai incident) and not to try to accuse Rage. Although I believe posting behaviours of individual people are important to consider (How BM points out how I must be scum because of my shortened post length, or even how BM isn't completely spamming every other minute in this game), I don't think entire situations where completely different people are involved should be used as precedent case.

Also Caller, the whole 3rd/4th to bandwagon theory. I'm not going to argue about the fact that it happens 75% of the time, but currently it looks like that's all the basis you have to be suspicious of people (Most recently, of meeple). Although his commentary on the lynch should be analysed more throughly with previous posts and posts to come, I don't think your points 1 and 2 should really play into a basis of suspicion. Shouldn't posting behaviour be considered more important than the order of votes casted for a lynch?

On April 21 2010 08:47 KF91 wrote:
Well I have been regularly reading through the thread and giving my opinion on the events that have been happening and what I think about people. But as you can see, there's really nothing to touch upon at this moment (Read this page and the last; it's mostly random spam that does not contribute to the game at all).

What I was referring to with my Day 3 analysis, is that I will be able to provide an analysis of each player (Maybe I'll split it up into two posts, first half of people on the first part of Day 3, then the rest on the second part of Day 3, I really haven't planned it out yet) so it will help the town accuse and maybe even decide who we should lynch.

On April 21 2010 09:04 KF91 wrote:


I did not say that I have only read the two pages; I just stated that the past two pages have been full of posts that are almost useless.

At the same time, I did not say that I won't be doing anything until Day 3. If you have read my posts, you could see that I have tried to contribute to the ideas of the town by giving my own input with regards to what has been happening. All I stated in my post is that I will be able to give a thorough analysis of every player in the game when it reaches Day 3, because at this moment, there are way too many players, and not enough time on my side to invest into a "project" like that.

On April 21 2010 09:29 KF91 wrote:


Oh, I think you just misunderstood because of my sentence structuring style -.- Sorry bout that. "Read" in that context was in an imperative sense, as in I was telling Osmoses to read the past two pages, and not "Read" as in "I just read the past two pages"

On April 21 2010 12:12 KF91 wrote:
Alright, I'm going to go along with Incognito and do my part:

iNfuNdiBuLuM

Important post summaries:
- Urges people to vote to prevent a no lynch



- Talks about the timing of the double lynch


- Supplies the inactive list


- Defends Caller saying that he wouldn't pull of the same mafia act twice in a row






- Medic and DT list



What makes me really suspicious about infun is the fact that he is looking very pro-town by stating is facts clearly and not getting accused that much, but at the same time, he hasn't been giving any ideas as to what the town should do. He's been giving little nudges here and there to guide the town, but he hasn't really put out a plan we should look at. He doesn't make any type of accusations about anybody and I believe that he doesn't even have suspicions against others.

He really hasn't contributed much after the Ace/Caller/nAi incident, and his last few posts have been mostly one-liners (But I guess I can't really blame him, because the thread post-Night 1 has been getting... spammy.), but it is quite noticeable how his long-drawn posts have recently turned into short one-liners.

Random trivia:
- Infun made the most interaction with Caller in his posts.
- He has made 27 posts since the beginning of the game (Using the archive, so I may be wrong)
- Voted for jpak during Day 1

Final Conclusions:
I personally believe that Infun could be a mafia. His non-aggressive posting style and his recent inactivity (Or lack of posts with content) makes me want to believe that he is mafia pretending to be a "helpful" townie member. He might have had something come up in real life, so we'll have to hear what he has to say. Of course, these are just my thoughts, so feel free to criticize me about what I think about him, and Infun can bash on me if he wants to as well. :D

On April 22 2010 04:46 KF91 wrote:


Looks like we forgot the chance that Caller could be miller. XD Well this does look good for Ace and his "I'm a detective" thing. Although I'm still kind of not sure on who we should vote for if we go for that double lynch on Day (Although RoL and BC seems to be big targets at this moment.)



I don't think that Ace failed at deducing if Caller was mafia. I think the combined products of the role-check and Caller's suspicious way of posting and playing style made it concrete for Ace to say that Caller was definitely mafia.

I think the double lynch will definitely depend on what happens with the mafia kills. Personally, I don' t think that Ace could die tonight, due to that fact that he hasn't gotten any mafia members killed. The only reason (that I can see) for Ace to get killed is if RoL or BC is mafia. Even then, if the majority of the town agrees with this lynch, killing Ace won't do anything at all to save their member.

Right now, the suspicions of Ace being mafia for me are very low. It would have been a very ballsy move by Ace to do something like what he did (If he was mafia) and the chances that Caller would flip Miller are very low. So I really believe that Ace is a legit DT at this point.

Now what would be even more surprising is if RoL and BC are both killed during the night. Although I don't think mafia is stupid enough to kill off the two people we are accusing if they are both townies. This goes along with what Korynne said, the mafia would rather have the townies kill each other rather than have the spotlight shine on them.

Well I'm going to go with the double lynch at this moment, because we could possibly end up choosing not to use it if the situation calls for it. We still have 2 more left if we don't use it, and I think the majority, or rather, some members of the town will be smart enough if we don't need to use it on Day 3.

I have to go to work, so I'll be back in around 6 hours. When I get back, I'm going to read over what RoL and BC have been saying and I'll hopefully put up a post before I go to sleep.

On April 24 2010 04:04 KF91 wrote:


Well the thing is, if we tell the medics who they should protect, we could end up confusing both the mafia and the medics. Like you said, the mafia could end up hitting 4 randoms that are not on the list, but if a "smart" medic thought about that, they would end up trying to protect a random. In any case, I still think that protecting the more active, intelligent players would be better than trying to protect other randoms.

So I think that it all comes down the play of the other roles with KP. Even if they are not smart enough to decipher and analyse posts, I hope they can still listen to the general tips of the town and use their kills tonight to catch some mafia.

On April 24 2010 23:02 KF91 wrote:
As promised, I will be writing up an analysis today (It's Day 3). It'll take a little time to write up, but it'll be posted today for sure. I'll be focusing on the first 9 players that are still alive:

1. BrownBear
4. d3_crescentia
8. BloodyC0bbler (He's going to be lynched, so I'll just skip him.
10. Scaramanga
11. Bill Murray
12. Fishball
13. RaGe
15. Scamp
17. Ace
20. meeple

It may seem redundant to see another analysis of players that have been analyzed already, but it's also to help me catch up on what exactly has been happening (If you noticed, which I'm pretty sure most people did; I haven't been posting in a while) to make sure I am voting on the right person (Although it seems that Ace is running this show at this moment XD)

On April 25 2010 03:59 KF91 wrote:
The list I posted on the previous page was not a suspicions list, because I think you guys are misunderstanding my post. It's just a list of people that I will be posting an analysis of today. I'm on Rage right now, so there's only 4 more people left before I post it :D

On April 25 2010 04:45 KF91 wrote:
Big post. Here we go.

I went through this post looking for grammatical and code errors. If there are still some left, I apologize -.-

BrownBear

+ Show Spoiler +

d3_crescentia

+ Show Spoiler +

Scaramanga

+ Show Spoiler +

Bill Murray

+ Show Spoiler +

Fishball

+ Show Spoiler +

RaGe

+ Show Spoiler +

Scamp

+ Show Spoiler +

Ace

+ Show Spoiler +

meeple

+ Show Spoiler +

tl;dr Version:

+ Show Spoiler +

On April 27 2010 00:22 Korynne wrote:
Yes Scamp, it was quite a bit sardonic. xD

I have no problems with questions being asked. My problem with you is that asking questions is all you seem to do!

You have contributed very little of your own analysis. Instead of helping town by analyzing people much (you've done so once, because it was requested of everyone to analyze the person below you, and gave a very very vague he's either confused town or confused scum conclusion. Well gee, if you're not going to make a conclusion I guess you don't need to preemptively defend yourself against anything...)

You say the analysis you request on yourself wasn't random, care to explain?

I eagerly await your very detailed and well thought out analysis of Bill Murray.

On April 27 2010 12:17 KF91 wrote:


Alright, let's get this show on the road.

madnessman

General Points:
- Goes for the inactive lynch.
- Not that many posts.

Thoughts:
I read a very important post by madnessman:



It's funny how he says this and then does it himself. At this time, madnessman has made 65 posts this week and he not contributed to the game that much. What is also notable is the fact that he is able to stay under the radar by making posts at least once every game day, but he has not pushed towards any type of plan, nor has he made any type of conversation with anyone in game.

He has followed through with a similar playing style in the last game I played with him (Micro-Mafia II) Of course, there were far less people in that game, so he was forced to talk a lot more, but he was able to stay under the radar, while lynching the townies.

He hasn't been contributing to the latest "drama" that has been going on, so I don't think there is enough evidence to pin him as a mafia or a townie. But I would definitely keep him on the suspicions list, just because he could be a mafia just lurking around and voting.

On April 13 2010 11:58 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
will there be paranoid/insane dts etc or is that information withheld and up to us to figure out?

On April 13 2010 12:18 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:


Affirmative.

id like to play.

On April 14 2010 11:40 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:


haha yeah, Gambinos weren't trying at all though

On April 14 2010 13:55 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
oh shite ace is playing better get your game face on

On April 14 2010 14:40 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:


Alas, for Ace hath joined our gentle troupe. I do perpend we must don our gaming faces, to quicken the mind as though an amalgam of steele!

edit5000: this post gives me a great idea for a mafia theme game: Medieval Mafia. thoughts!?

On April 14 2010 15:15 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
May we tarry no longer? Yon blackguards most foul doth plague our fiefdom, bring forth thy blade and drive them from this land! To arms! To arms!

On April 18 2010 04:43 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
I want to remind you guys that this game is running the "majority lynch" rule. This means that if no majority is reached, there won't be a lynch.

No lynch is bad for the town. It's like giving a time walk to the mafia (mtg reference nerd lol). This also means abstaining is bad! So please pay attention during votes as they operate a bit differently in this game than most TL mafias.

On April 18 2010 06:01 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:


No assassin worth his salt will roleclaim, since it runs contrary to his victory conditions. Unless the assassins are not playing to win, this plan won't work.

On April 18 2010 06:09 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:


Yeah, we should plan for worst case scenarios - but we all know that the game will 95% not be over on day 3. This plays into the timing of double lynch. I think we should wait no longer than Day 4 to do it (meaning we vote for double lynch on Day 3). However this is all dependent on the events of the previous days. If we're in a hole, might want to start it on Day 3; or if we catch some reds via DT or they scumtell.

Often i find these time limits for town are a useful thought experiment but rarely if ever do the games actually play out that way

On April 18 2010 06:34 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
@ KF91 and radfield

I have never liked double lynching early. Most of the time there just isn't a good amount of information at this time and at least 1 townie gets lynched.

One thing fw needs to clean up is whether we can have a double lynch but then only lynch 1 player. I myself doubt it.However, if we can back out, then double lynching is a little less risky since we won't be forced to do a lynch on bad info.

On April 18 2010 06:34 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
aaaaand BC with the rules snipe

On April 18 2010 09:40 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
just as planned!

On April 19 2010 02:11 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
These people have not posted yet since the game started or have made about one post with only a few lines in it of little substance:

Roffles
nbtnbt5
krndandaman
Fishball
Elemenope
tree.hugger
rebirth of legend (but he posted a lot pregame too)
RaGe
Jadefist
TheLardyGooser
Caller (wtf mate)
love1another
jpak

Now this is a rather large list (let me know if i missed anybody). One reason could be that the game started on the weekend, so don't think this is some end all be all declaration of scum/inactivity.

However, two things:

1. if we want to lynch an inactive Day 1 this is where we start
2. if you are new and not posting but are here, you should probably start! we don't bite.

On April 19 2010 02:19 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:


The problem is that we have guarantee that everyone will comply, especially the Assns. As i posted before, the plan basically runs contrary to the victory condition of an assassin, so it makes no sense for them to comply. If i was an assassin i'd spend the first couple nights rolechecking people anyway, since you have so few kills.

On April 19 2010 02:20 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
edit: NO guarantee.

On April 19 2010 05:58 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:


I dont know. do you really think he'd expect to get away with the same thing for 2 games in a row?

On April 19 2010 06:14 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:


I'm really not sure about BM's intent here. Part of me thinks that his "plan" is just a way to incite discussion and see how many people will come out and say "i like this!!1," and not a plan he actually wants to enact.

He hasn't been in the thread for a while so i'd rather wait to see what he has to say for himself when he comes back than start a bandwagon.

On April 19 2010 06:39 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
I don't think it's a WiFoM at all, actually. Your strategy last game, hardly posting until you were outed, then distracting the town with the bus driver role, and then fading away until your time to be lynched came - was very risky and by all rights should have gotten you killed if the town had one iota of sense. The fact that the strategy is not only high risk but also transparent makes me think that if you were mafia, you would be less likely to employ the strategy again, especially with the high density of good players this game, regardless of wifom logic.

On April 19 2010 07:11 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
I actually thought Caller's first post was pretty good because it rerailed the town discussion away from BM's plan, which had been beat to death. He also identified the sort of non committal passerby posts that people need to watch for and remember. However, I'm not sure how he arrived at the conclusion that Ace's strong accusations are the signs of a pro-town player. The wifom part was incorrect, and the part about inexperienced players posting more is basically an obvious truthism; pointing out something like that has no bearing on his innocence or guilt and so garners no points from me.

and why Nai Protoss all of a sudden? he's just about as useful as all the other semi-inactives. Killing him doesn't really tell us much at all, i don't think...and at least he's posting now that we're talking about him in the thread.

On April 19 2010 07:15 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:


You brought up something in your post here that i was just thinking about. I thought it was strange that as soon as you began to accuse Caller, he threw out the name of nai.protoss as a litmus test for his innocence.

On April 19 2010 07:29 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:


Okay, thanks for explaining your reasoning behind choosing Nai. Like i said at least it forced him to post, however briefly. But really you could have picked one of several names, and it seemed like you just picked nai.protoss because he happened to be making a bad post at the same time you were posting (refer to my large list). Who's really to say - maybe his mafia buddies yelled at him, or maybe he got intimidated by the rising argument here and wanted out? It's all speculation imo. But i understand what you're saying here. If we're going to lynch a semi-inactive/useless poster, right now nai.protoss is as good a choice as any.

Nai.protoss, if you're innocent, it's a bad idea to just disappear away like that since it just makes things even more suspicious.

On April 20 2010 04:52 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:


If you read my other posts, i was concerned about Caller picking nai.protoss as a lynch target when there was nothing specific about him that stood out compared to any other inactive townie. Especially since Caller suggested lynching Nai as a sort of innocence test right after Ace started accusing him of not making sense etc. In my mind there was no difference between lynching nai or any other inactive; it seemed Caller picked him because he posted recently (a rather bad post at that, which some had noted). Anyway that whole side of events seems to have been dropped for the time being.

You shouldn't vote for yourself. We want to reach a majority, no lynch is bad bad bad for the town since no lynch = 0% chance to hit a mafia. If we lynch an inactive person or a useless poster, we have potential of lynching a mafia or at least someone who wouldn't have helped anyway.


It seems like Jpak and RoL are the prime targets right now. Honestly I don't think they're mafia yet. As I right this RoL just posted apologizing for his inactivity, saying he was working all weekend, which is plausible though not *verifiable*. The problem is that even if these guys are town, they currently are no help at all, and in the future even a possible liability if they manage not to get modkilled. Personally I'd rather vote for Jpak since i know RoL can actually be a town asset when he wants to be, and I'd like to give him the benefit of the doubt.

On April 20 2010 04:53 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
*write this

wow

On April 20 2010 05:09 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:


Meh, everybody writes differently. I don't think there is much to learn from thinking like this. Some scum probably go out of their way to say things like "we should do x," "xyz is bad for us," because they wanna sound like part of the gang.

I agree more with BC saying that one inactive jumping out to accuse another is something kinda weird... as if people would just forget he was just recently inactive too? Granted it was the weekend, so you can't really verify inactivity or not which sucks. But a move like that was pretty ballsy and a bandwagon is already starting around it. I do agree about the framing of his post though, basically saying "well we will never agree on lynching someone suspicious, so lets lynch this other inactive person!"

On the surface it appears to be a very neutral plan but there are definitely some issues here and i'd like to halfway echo you sentiments

On April 20 2010 06:05 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:


dang, i guess i should have waited to vote fifth

On April 20 2010 06:35 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:


So Ace is there some master agenda behind your "be a whiny bitch" plan this game?

On April 20 2010 09:49 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
i will switch. just got back from dinner.

On April 20 2010 10:33 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:


shit just happens, i guess. At least he was an assassin and not green.

On April 20 2010 11:13 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
from the voting thread:



wow just wow

On April 20 2010 13:20 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
Guys remember to check out the ZBOT thread, it will be a very useful tool in the near future. I wonder where Zona is though? Busy programming/making love to the robot? I'm sure he'll turn up.

Anyway some suggestions from little old me -

DT list:

Anyone suspicious and/or semi active. From my POV this includes motbob, tree.hugger, BM, TheLardyGooser. Maybe rage because of Day 1? Use your best judgment.

Medic List:

The obvious - Ace (even though he's not helping ... yet, he actually might be a DT), Zona, BC, Incognito, myself (lol )