TL Mafia XXII Archive - Page 2

On April 18 2010 06:58 [NyC]HoBbes wrote:
I also disagree with using the double lynch on day 3. Wait until we actually know what we're doing with it, don't throw it away at the earliest possible opportunity

On April 19 2010 13:07 [NyC]HoBbes wrote:

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Quick defense of inactivity- was at a friend's weekend house since Friday, only checking TL on a mobile phone. Am going to sleep now, will be active on the thread tomorrow starting around 4-5 PM

On April 19 2010 13:08 [NyC]HoBbes wrote:
4-5 PM meaning EDT, for clarification

On April 20 2010 06:54 [NyC]HoBbes wrote:
Promised return from inactivity begins now.

My personal two cents on several topics:

1)- Jugan is most likely town. As much as I dislike his aggressive/confrontational playing style, he is playing exactly like he did in Mafia XVI, where he was innocent. In that game, he vehemently disagreed and criticized Citi.zen constantly throughout the entire game. Citi.zen turned out to be right about nearly all of the mafia, and some of Jugan's suggestions as "clearly town" were red, but Jugan flipped green. He's acting the same way right now, and, if he says something suspicious later, we'll have tons and tons of posts to read back over. No point in killing him, especially not right away.

2)- At this point I'm fine with lynching jpak, or any of the other inactives. Day 1 lynch is basically a crapshoot. Realistically speaking, no one has done anything that dead gives them away as red, so why kill someone who is talking, when if they keep talking, they'll give away information about themselves.

3)- All the posters commenting with things like "you guys are useless players", "watching One Piece >>>>>>>>>>> this crap" are annoying as balls. If you don't enjoy playing mafia with new players, why did you sign up for this game. I don't enjoy reading dumb arguments either, but it's a part of the game, and bitching about it isn't going to magically make people less stupid. If someone posts something you think is dumb, pointing out why would be more beneficial to everyone in the game than saying that the thread is crap, and reminiscing about the good old days when mafia games were highly intellectual, coke was 25c a bottle, and you had to walk 20 miles to school uphill both ways. I respect many of the veterans as good players, but the fact that you're a good player shouldn't be cause to be a condescending dick to everyone

On April 20 2010 09:19 [NyC]HoBbes wrote:
Let me find a couple of quotes for you:

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(The final list of the mafia was DoctorHelvetica, Jayme, Hyperbola, Phrujbaz, derfboy, Mystlord, and Keit.)

I also have PM evidence saying you would support DoctorHelvetica in your voting. While you were seemingly trying as hard as it is possible for a town-allied player to lose us the game, some players were actually finding the mafia. Citi.zen said several times in that thread that it WASNT you at all who clued him in to DrH. Congratulations on figuring out someone was a detective after they told you, that's your only tangible accomplishment in that game. Feel free to stop being an egotistical ass. Thanks

On April 20 2010 09:27 [NyC]HoBbes wrote:

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This still doesn't explain why after DrH died and citi.zen, who was supposedly entirely under your direction (which he denies), called out nearly all the remaining mafia, you told everyone until the bitter end that everyone who agreed with citizen was a moron. Calling me a simpleton doesn't change the fact that you're full of shit

On April 20 2010 09:57 [NyC]HoBbes wrote:
4 minutes to get 2 more switches to Jpak...

On April 20 2010 09:58 [NyC]HoBbes wrote:
If Jugan switches it'll be to vote for me

On April 20 2010 10:04 [NyC]HoBbes wrote:
As do I

On April 20 2010 10:45 [NyC]HoBbes wrote:

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Most PI work nowadays is mainly just rolechecking people's wives... Sad, isn't it

On April 20 2010 11:51 [NyC]HoBbes wrote:
Jugan- I wasn't the one who filed a complaint against you.

If if makes you feel like more of a man, however, I could start complaining to everyone about how emotionally damaged you've made me, and how I'm clearly a shell of my former self. Anything to make you feel better.

On April 20 2010 12:07 [NyC]HoBbes wrote:
I wasn't being serious at all about the hurt feelings part. I really couldn't care less about being called a donkey, especially over the internet. I agree with you on having to be ready to accept an insult back, which im guessing is why we've been trading them for the last 10 pages or so.

For the record, I completely agree that people saying things like "this game is shit, lets watch one piece" is bullshit. I think I mentioned that specific post in a post earlier about how a lot of the vets werent being helpful

On April 21 2010 12:36 [NyC]HoBbes wrote:
Just got home and found out I got killed.

GG All, good luck town

ZBot

194 Posts

April 20 2010 01:19 GMT

#22

meeple

+ Show Spoiler +

On April 15 2010 06:05 meeple wrote:
Is there still room in this bad boy for me?

On April 15 2010 15:43 meeple wrote:
How many people are looking to get here?

On April 15 2010 17:51 meeple wrote:

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Nah... I don't think that thread gets bumped if someone posts in it... dunno if its because it's stickied or not.

On April 16 2010 13:39 meeple wrote:

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Yeah I don't know why we've never used the Korean time instead of Eastern time...

And I didn't know stickies can still be bumped into the sidebar... suppose I hadn't noticed, sry.

On April 16 2010 13:57 meeple wrote:

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Not everyone is in EST... I think they would think more in KST than in EST... but regardless its worked well in the past so I'm not gonna say to change it...

On April 18 2010 05:02 meeple wrote:

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Why would you advocate against the protection of those experienced players? I mean... I agree that they should live/die by their actions... but if they're red doesn't it pose a greater threat to the town. You say that they will be caught very quickly... but doesn't the experience give you an edge in avoiding the gallows?

Also... Abenson please stop spamming... it's annoying as fuck

On April 18 2010 05:09 meeple wrote:

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Hmmm... so when you say that you guys will be caught quickly... it's because you're egging to town on to scrutinize your posts?

On April 18 2010 05:43 meeple wrote:

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It was a possibility that he said to exploit if possible... I wouldn't say that his plan hinged on it. In fact, it was a fairly minor part of the plan.

On April 18 2010 05:46 meeple wrote:

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On April 18 2010 05:42 Zona wrote:

On April 18 2010 05:33 Bill Murray wrote:
OK. Big FoS on Zona/BC for completely ignoring my valid strategy of making people pitted against each other. If we have player A vs player B we will be able to learn who the assassins are through having them strategically fight each other. If neither one is an assassin, we can have them roleclaim. I know that a lot of people on TL are against roleclaiming like this, but it is very beneficial to the town.

Good points from this:
1) we learn who the assassins are
2) assassins have an equal chance of killing other assassins
3) we will be able to see people who are unable to kill each other

This is the same approach that was attempted to be taken in Caller's last Mafiya. It was a very good strategy, and should have been followed. I feel that BC is probably town, but I'm getting serious scummy vibes from Zona. He's trying to derail the town, and is more than likely scum.

Wait...you were serious about your "everyone is an assassin" post? And you want everyone to roleclaim so early?

First of all, if someone is an assassin, they aren't going to claim assassin. That's just setting a big target on their backs so that the other assassins can kill them. And if we mass roleclaim we just allow the mafia to choose the most valuable power roles to kill at night.

Also - how am I derailing the town? I'm pointing out the fishy parts of BC's posts and posting my own proposed plan with reasoning to back it up.

Here's Bill Murray's plan in spoilers for those that want to reference it. It was so silly I thought it was a joke.
+ Show Spoiler +

On April 14 2010 05:13 Bill Murray wrote:
everyone is an assassin

here's what we're going to do:

The first half of the list is required to assassinate the 2nd half of the list. The list will be inverted the next day so everyone will get their turn to kill someone if they are an assassin. They won't want to be using their kills up every single night anyways, as they can use a Detective Check on the alternate night. I will be cutting the game list into a 1/2 order. 1s are killers, 2s are killees. It will switch the next night. If you are a killer or a killee, don't complain. In all likelihood you won't have to kill or be killed, as we are not sure how many assassins there are. If the mafia kill a killee in the night, we skip a lynch to balance it (hypothetically), but if they kill a killer then we will lynch the killee of the person that they killed the killer of. I hope this is making sense to you. If anyone has any questions about the Bill Murray plan of town success let me know. This plan will help the town as it will be putting mafia players in vulnerable "killee" positions in which they would potentially lynch the "killer". We use the assassins to win as a town. They COUNT as town people, so assassins will want the town to win. It will also be giving them chances to win the game for theirselves through killing other assassins and finding assassins that they can kill at any time during the night that we aren't asking them to kill for us. If they find an assassin, they can breadcrumb a message to us previously or something to let us know BEFORE they do the action that they will be killing an alternate person (this will guarantee that they stay town as we let them go towards their goal while we go towards our goal together). I don't want assassins to claim at first, but it will become obvious after the first 2 cycles on who they are anyways, so we can be a lot more organized after the first couple day/night cycles.

BM can almost never be taken seriously... his plans should be ignored

On April 18 2010 06:50 meeple wrote:
I don't agree that Day 3 is a good time to use the lynch... we still won't have tons of info by then. I was under the impression that a double lynch is to be used when we have lots of info and little time... Maybe by Day 4 or 5. The chances of it hitting townies on Day3 is pretty good... and mafia would just love if we crippled ourselves.

On April 18 2010 07:24 meeple wrote:
Its a pretty big game... I don't think we'll have too much trouble using up the double lynches. It's better that it be unused than we use it as a scattershot in the hopes of nailing red. Just because we have them... doesn't mean we absolutely have to use them.

@BC... Every death gives information, but it might not be entirely useful information, and I would rather get information from discussion then an innocent townie's death.

On April 18 2010 07:32 meeple wrote:

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That's like the worst case scenario... you're not counting medic saves and veteran buffs... but still I concede by Day 3 we'll likely be whittled down. In my mind, it still doesn't justify killing more people unless we've got a solid lead on them. Like I said before, the double lynch is when we have more clues/solid leads than we can lynch... I don't want us to go to the polls and off two randoms because we don't know what to do with our lynches.

Also... a response to Zona's attack on BC isn't useless... if anything you should be attacking the people who have posted shit all, like BM, but even then it's not doing anything constructive... other than pointing out what everyone already knows

On April 18 2010 08:05 meeple wrote:

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On April 18 2010 07:50 Foolishness wrote:

On April 18 2010 07:32 meeple wrote:

On April 18 2010 07:20 Foolishness wrote:

There are 38 players in the game. If we vote to use double lynch on day 2 (and thus it would be activated for day 3 lynch), then at the time of use, 2 days will have already passed. Ignoring medic saves cause medics always suck unless your name is Scamp, mafia will have killed 8 people. It'd be a safe assumption that by then at least one assassin/vigilante/mad hatter would have killed someone by then. So give or take by then 9 people will have died during the night, and 2 of our lynches brings the total up to 11. Seems reasonable that 10 to 11 people will be dead when we decide our day 3 lynch. That's going to be 28 people alive.

Considering there are 3 double lynches, waiting to use seems like a terrible idea. Waiting another day is probably another 4-6 people dead (pending vigi/assassin hits and hatters dying and such). That's roughly 23 people alive. Even assuming by then 2 mafia are already dead, 6 mafia to 23ish people is cutting it close.

And for good measure...

On April 18 2010 05:43 meeple wrote:

On April 18 2010 05:32 Zona wrote:
Hrm. I've confirmed with flamewheel that nobody has the ability to PM others or talk out of thread except for mafia. I find it highly fishy that so much of BC's proposed plan hinges on an aspect of the game that doesn't exist, and that he didn't himself ask to confirm.

It was a possibility that he said to exploit if possible... I wouldn't say that his plan hinged on it. In fact, it was a fairly minor part of the plan.

NOBODY CARES! POST SOMETHING OF VALUE PLEASE!

It goes well without saying that planning for the worst case scenario is much better than "hoping" for some medic saves and Vets taking hits and mafia being stupid. I've been in games where the town could've saved itself if it had double lynched earlier. Instead town was left in a situation where they needed both their double lynches to hit mafia in order to win. You can probably guess what happened.

Yes, I should listen to you and attack BC, who's posted shit all game...except he's actually contributing. Right now everyone disagrees with BC. But wait a minute! Something's not right here! BC told everyone to attack him (and caller and Ace) in his first post, and to not trust him at all. So all YOU have done is conformed to HIS plan, and act in a way that he totally anticipated and even wanted.

Great job doing exactly what BC wanted! Not only have you provided us with essential information, you've also made high quality posts alerting all of us of how BC is full of crap! If there were elections I'd so be voting for you right now. I'd also be telling everyone else of how godly you are at mafia. Can you teach me your secrets?

Perhaps it'd be best if you just start licking my testicles right now.

I never said to attack BC... in fact... I defended him when Zona was attacking him. I said BM as in Bill Murray, perhaps you just misread there. So yeah... you probably want to start licking those balls yourself.

On April 19 2010 06:07 meeple wrote:
I really can't beleive BM's plan is getting support...

I suppose that BC is being true to word and staying behind the scenes a bit... at least he hasn't pushed his plan forward at all.

First day lynch has barely any chance of getting red, but it doesn't mean we shouldn't try. Lynching inactives is acceptableish... except that we start to forget the main purpose of the game... besides that there are way too many inactives to whittle away at. It seems that some people have decided that Bill Murray should be the first to go down tonight... I will support if necessary but I sort of question some of the newer players semi-blindlysupporting people. They will pop in just to say its a good plan and then speak nothing else of it. If you have supported something please say why you think its good, or what flaws it can possibly have.

I would encourage people to look more closely at those posters and see if anyone stands out. I know that a common defense will be that he/she's a newbie to Mafia but I think there are at least some of them that look suspicious.

On April 19 2010 12:42 meeple wrote:

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There are far too many inactives to consider at this point imo... besides we can make a more educated decision...

@ Caller... perhaps I appeared non-commital before but I was fairly clear that we should steer away from inactives and instead try to nab one of the BM bandwagoners, since an inexperienced mafia might be tempted. Thelardygooser or whatever his name is, is an example of someone I would consider lynching. That and his constant "I am noob" excuses... For some reason Jugan is behaving somewhat Bill Murrayish... in a way that I haven't really seen him play before, so to me that something to keep my eye on.

On April 19 2010 15:57 meeple wrote:

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Thats getting to be a pretty tired story man...

So... we need some sort of consensus on how to vote (obviously)... I don't mind lynching an inactive, but I would prefer someone like Lardygooser or the like... At any rate I would enjoy feedback on why we should shouldn't do it.

On April 19 2010 17:57 meeple wrote:
Wow man.. those last two posts really needed to be seperate eh?

BM, you get this shit every game because you're annoying to play with, green or not.

On April 19 2010 18:17 meeple wrote:
Yeah that was kinda unwarranted... its late and I'm cranky... my apologies

On April 19 2010 18:21 meeple wrote:

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I never attacked Jugan... I said he was kinda posting spammishly like you, but he's started to put thought into his posts now, and thus I haven't peeped. When I said that him being a miller is a tired story isn't an attack, unless he's much more fragile than I know him to be.

On April 20 2010 05:26 meeple wrote:
Holy mother of bandwagons... brutaalll.

There are much more juicy targets... especially now that RoL is now active. It's only Day 1 so some level of inactivity should be excused.

Is there any reason for lynching jpak other than he's been inactive/shitty one liner posting?

Caller makes a good point about Rage. When I'm red I try to do the same thing... and you're just that much more aware of making it sound like you're working as a group.

On April 20 2010 07:35 meeple wrote:
Sweet... $120 bucks...

@Caller,

The Rage bandwagon started with your post about him... and it made sense to me? In any case I switched to jpak since I want a majority vote and he's got the most on him by now...

On April 20 2010 07:47 meeple wrote:

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Well... nothing's certain... I don't feel jpak's scum but I'm voting for him because I want a lynch today. I feel Rage has a better chance of being scum tha jpak does. But who knows... we might yet see red blood tonight.

On April 20 2010 08:28 meeple wrote:

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What's bs about that? I'm against lynching inactives but if my votes the one needed for a lynch then of course I'll do it. Who do you have in mind instead? Would you rather a no lynch than a green?

On April 20 2010 08:30 meeple wrote:
And when you say Rage or KF91... I support your Rage argument... but just because someone bandwagons doesn't make them mafia... in a game where majority rules bandwagons are necessary to get a lynch.

On April 20 2010 08:54 meeple wrote:

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So you state an idea with good reasoning, I agree and support it... then I'm suspicious. Please explain how that works. I dunno if spots 3 and 4 are mafia hotspots or something, since you mention it so much...

On April 20 2010 09:36 meeple wrote:
Dredgin' up the past... its done... and a game... we won... I don't care who gets the credit.

@Caller... lol it might be a statistic but as a determining factor in someone's redness its really weak. I'm sure you can pull up tons of statistics that don't prove anything

On April 20 2010 09:57 meeple wrote:
Jugan are you planning on switching your vote?

On April 20 2010 09:59 meeple wrote:

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Oh you doubter... I know Jugan is a team player

On April 20 2010 10:17 meeple wrote:
Oof... that's unfortunate... decreases our KP a bit...

Nothing to do but wait and see who gets offed.

On April 20 2010 15:24 meeple wrote:
I see that there's been good use of the Zbot already... huge props to Zona for getting that up and running. It makes a ton of sense.

Now... to aid medics in making some decisions:

High Risk of Dying

- BC
- Caller
- Incog

All are pretty high profile and have been relatively helpfulish... On that note remember BC's plan of letting them live/die by their play. Not a suggestion either way, just something to think about.

Medium Risk

Examples are but definitely not limited to:

- INfund
- tree.hugger
- hobbes
- foolishness

Basically anyone with some experience that's been posting somewhat regularly

The rest are basically low risk... but I'm sure the mafia will pick off some. Also please before you protect someone go over their post history very carefully... we definitely don't want to be protecting reds and for sure there are some reds in the people I listed as perceived high/med risk. Any hints in their post history of scummy behavior and you should think twice about protecting them.

On April 20 2010 15:41 meeple wrote:

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Yeah not really... your confusion and spam is exactly what the mafia wants. It prevents us from making decisions and sidetracks us with talks of flamewheel throwing in a non-existent assasin

On April 20 2010 16:04 meeple wrote:
He might very well be a bored dt... but I wouldn't say the activity level is so low... we've had much worse games. 40 pages by Night 1 is alright.

On April 21 2010 05:04 meeple wrote:

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You're barking up a non-existent tree Caller... Statistics don't imply anything.

And yeah my suspicions of Rage are pretty much dissolved by now... Not to say he's completely scot-free but much less so than before.

On April 21 2010 05:28 meeple wrote:

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1) I changed votes because we needed a lynch
2) Yeah this doesn't mean anything
3) I do this frequently... look at previous games

On April 21 2010 05:50 meeple wrote:

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It's not any different... and when I was a medic I didn't save that guy, so it wasn't like I was gloating about saving the guy. I was just congratulating the guy who did... which is ok isn't it?

This time I say we lost a potential kp because we did... you're totally over-analyzing this

On April 21 2010 11:11 meeple wrote:

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I didn't say we wouldn't have enough... I said we wouldn't have tons. We probably will have enough... but not so much that I would be totally comfortable with doing it and the second lynch will probably be a stretch. It really all depends on how the game plays out. If after tonights killings there is reason to believe in Day 3 we'll be set on two Mafia I might very well change my mind. But I'm just playing it safe... too many lynches without enough information just means more green deaths.

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You're right... this is something I'm guilty of. I am normally a reactionary player and even more so in this game... I mean hell even this response is only a reaction to you prodding me a bit. I will make an effort to poke the bear and get some information.

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I don't remember complaining about inactivity... in fact I think I said that its been pretty good, with 40 pages by Day 1.

About bandwagons: Normally bandwagons are something to be avoided... but in a game where you need a majority vote to lynch they're inevitable, and even necessary. Do you really think that everyone voting for jpak really beleived him to be scum? Or even agreed with the reasons he was being lynched? Without Jugan switching last minute (when he claimed he wouldn't) we wouldn't have got a lynch at all. We should still look closely at people who do little but bandwagon (yeah I fall on this list right now, but whatever)

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Yeah the medic list eh... hrmmm... not entirely well thought out but certaintly I can defend it. The list wasn't meant to tell the medics exactly what to do... and surely it wasn't meant to include everyone that I thought was at risk. I actually meant to include d3 and don't know why it didn't end up on there. But Zona and Ace were ignored because Zona hasn't been especially active other than his Zbot and he's been really active on other parts of the site, so although his contributions have been incredibly useful he hasn't been all too active around here. Ace seems to have given up on the game and I have doubts whether he really is a dt... but regardless it's not like he's contributing to anything other than his ingame-game.

I saw Infund's list... but I thought it could be expanded... tree.hugger and foolishness have posted semi-intelligently but yeah hobbes... mmm... that's someone that might have been left off given some more thought.

On April 21 2010 11:18 meeple wrote:

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Look at the timing of Jugan's vote post... I saw his vote go in before I posted that.

On April 21 2010 12:50 meeple wrote:

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On April 21 2010 12:13 Incognito wrote:

On April 21 2010 11:11 meeple wrote:
I didn't say we wouldn't have enough... I said we wouldn't have tons. We probably will have enough... but not so much that I would be totally comfortable with doing it and the second lynch will probably be a stretch. It really all depends on how the game plays out. If after tonights killings there is reason to believe in Day 3 we'll be set on two Mafia I might very well change my mind. But I'm just playing it safe... too many lynches without enough information just means more green deaths.

Your third sentence contradicts itself? It pretty much says, "we will probably have enough information to use a double lynch, but I'm not comfortable using this enough information to actually lynch two people!!?" Which is it? Although yes, at this rate, nobody's spitting out enough information to DL tomorrow. This statement is shaky, but I guess it doesn't make sense for you to say this as mafia. Since really not very many solid suspects have been brought up, so you wouldn't have the need to avoid DLing then.

On April 21 2010 11:11 meeple wrote:
You're right... this is something I'm guilty of. I am normally a reactionary player and even more so in this game... I mean hell even this response is only a reaction to you prodding me a bit. I will make an effort to poke the bear and get some information.

Great I'll look forward to it.

On April 21 2010 11:11 meeple wrote:
About bandwagons: Normally bandwagons are something to be avoided... but in a game where you need a majority vote to lynch they're inevitable, and even necessary. Do you really think that everyone voting for jpak really beleived him to be scum? Or even agreed with the reasons he was being lynched? Without Jugan switching last minute (when he claimed he wouldn't) we wouldn't have got a lynch at all. We should still look closely at people who do little but bandwagon (yeah I fall on this list right now, but whatever)

So you are in the lets-not-kill-more-innocent-townies-with-shaky-Double-Lynches camp, but you're also in the lets-lynch-people-just-because-i-don't-want-a-no-lynch camp. Cool beans.

On April 21 2010 11:11 meeple wrote:
Yeah the medic list eh... hrmmm... not entirely well thought out but certaintly I can defend it. The list wasn't meant to tell the medics exactly what to do... and surely it wasn't meant to include everyone that I thought was at risk. I actually meant to include d3 and don't know why it didn't end up on there. But Zona and Ace were ignored because Zona hasn't been especially active other than his Zbot and he's been really active on other parts of the site, so although his contributions have been incredibly useful he hasn't been all too active around here. Ace seems to have given up on the game and I have doubts whether he really is a dt... but regardless it's not like he's contributing to anything other than his ingame-game.

I saw Infund's list... but I thought it could be expanded... tree.hugger and foolishness have posted semi-intelligently but yeah hobbes... mmm... that's someone that might have been left off given some more thought.

Hmm...you're still suspicious, but this has put me back into indecision. Actually finding out today's deaths makes you look more innocent. Since two people on your medic list died. I'm not sure you're that crazy to put two of your hit list members on a public medic list. Although I guess since Hobbes was like a lolwut and Foolishness was acting...shady you could take that risk. In any case, I await your active contributions to the town effort.

When I say that we will probably have enough information... I mean that there might be 2 people we suspect of being mafia but we're shaky on them. The difference I was trying (and failed) to emphasize was having barely enough information to lynch two people, and having like 2-3 really solid suspects and not enough lynches to deal justice to them.

In any case... I'll be reviewing and making a case for some suspects shortly

On April 21 2010 14:44 meeple wrote:
Blanalysis

nbtnbt5

- His very few posts in the thread have just to say he supports BM's assasin plan, and the plan to lynch an inactive. Moreover, the feel of his posts give me a hint of mafia with no idea how to act green. Still needs more posting and information to confirm.

Voted for himself, then a fairly random vote on Falcynn... The self-vote gives me further suspicion that he's red and struggling with the role.

Abenson

- Lots of crap posting... saying alot and remaining active but not actually contributing very much at all
- He might be implicated if Caller really does turn up red, by this post:

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And he prefaced this game by saying he's well known for being useless, which is somewhat of a cop-out so that he doesn't need to answer for what he says.

And Elemenope I'm still waiting for your trademark few but lengthy posts...

On April 21 2010 14:49 meeple wrote:

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lol... fail on my part... too many people to keep track of. I wondered why his Zbot entry was so short.

On April 21 2010 14:59 meeple wrote:

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If you're willing to stake your life on it... well then I suppose so...

On April 21 2010 15:20 meeple wrote:

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On April 21 2010 14:55 BloodyC0bbler wrote:

On April 19 2010 07:05 Abenson wrote:
Hmm...
Caller is always interesting.
I propose we keep him for a bit.
He is a veteran, after all.
If he's not mafia he'll benefit us.

Hi meeple. You just confirmed yourself red.

You have pointed the FoS at almost everyone, but hey, your trying to live. Thats not where the confirmation lies.

If you had noticed oh say, days ago. Incognito replaced Elemenope as a player. You have spent most of this game not really contributing, and pointing your finger everywhere. Your initial play this game came as logical, and founded. Quickly it however turned for the worse. You dropped to one liners very quickly. Pointed the FoS at many players. You then make a random med list, where two of the people on said list are dead. (seems slightly odd that people in the spotlight would die. Also a few of the names on there make very little sense to be protected).
You come back to jump on the kill caller wagon with the promise of more suspects to come.

Those suspects include such small amounts of information its odd. With the amount of crapstorm posts we have, you could have easily narrowed down more than 2 people in an hour.

Combine all this with the dead people who were suspicious of you. You have alooot to make up for. shape up.

Yearghh... I'm so tired of being picked apart... but I have been playing sloppily so I suppose I deserve it.

Alright..Time to go through my posts and do some retrospective:

Rage - He posted very carefully... something that I would expect from a smart mafia. My suspicion of him has greatly lessened of late.

TheLardyGooser -

Show nested quote +

And he was red...

Where are all the other people that I pointed the finger at? Please show me my posts because I can't see to find them.

The two listed in my latest post? I gave reasons for why I suspected them in the post. I never said that we should lynch them now... in fact if anything it was just a starting point for later analysis, and of course we couldn't learn anything from lynching them... that's why I voted to lynch Caller... He gives us valuable information. A FoS doesn't mean intent to lynch... I make it rather clear that the ideas are still being formulated.

My medic list wasn't random... and I defended it to Incog already... if anything the fact that I was right about two of the people on there should exonerate me somewhat. If you think I have the balls to kill off two of the people on my list then I appreciate it, but yeah I'm much too safe a player for that.

There are many more suspects of course but I focussed on ones that previously had perhaps been overlooked. I'm not just going to echo sentiments that other people have said.

The amount that you've grossly exaggerated my failings here are outstanding... Where are the "many" people that I accused? Why is my medic list random, when I explained pretty thoroughly how I went about making it? My slip-up with forgetting that elemenope was replaced by incog is understandable in a game with 38 people in it.

On April 21 2010 15:25 meeple wrote:

Show nested quote +

On April 21 2010 15:21 Caller wrote:

On April 21 2010 15:20 meeple wrote:

On April 21 2010 14:55 BloodyC0bbler wrote:

On April 19 2010 07:05 Abenson wrote:
Hmm...
Caller is always interesting.
I propose we keep him for a bit.
He is a veteran, after all.
If he's not mafia he'll benefit us.

So... we need some sort of consensus on how to vote (obviously)... I don't mind lynching an inactive, but I would prefer someone like Lardygooser or the like... At any rate I would enjoy feedback on why we should shouldn't do it.

And he was red...

Where are all the other people that I pointed the finger at? Please show me my posts because I can't see to find them.

The two listed in my latest post? I gave reasons for why I suspected them in the post. I never said that we should lynch them now... in fact if anything it was just a starting point for later analysis, and of course we couldn't learn anything from lynching them... that's why I voted to lynch Caller... He gives us valuable information. A FoS doesn't mean intent to lynch... I make it rather clear that the ideas are still being formulated.

My medic list wasn't random... and I defended it to Incog already... if anything the fact that I was right about two of the people on there should exonerate me somewhat. If you think I have the balls to kill off two of the people on my list then I appreciate it, but yeah I'm much too safe a player for that.

There are many more suspects of course but I focussed on ones that previously had perhaps been overlooked. I'm not just going to echo sentiments that other people have said.

The amount that you've grossly exaggerated my failings here are outstanding... Where are the "many" people that I accused? Why is my medic list random, when I explained pretty thoroughly how I went about making it? My slip-up with forgetting that elemenope was replaced by incog is understandable in a game with 38 people in it.

clearly mafia here. Why are we even doubting this?

I play safe, therefore I'm mafia... cmon Caller you can do better than that. What's stopping me from being a safe townie?

On April 21 2010 15:38 meeple wrote:

Show nested quote +

On April 21 2010 15:28 Caller wrote:

On April 21 2010 15:25 meeple wrote:

On April 21 2010 15:21 Caller wrote:

On April 21 2010 15:20 meeple wrote:

On April 21 2010 14:55 BloodyC0bbler wrote:

On April 19 2010 07:05 Abenson wrote:
Hmm...
Caller is always interesting.
I propose we keep him for a bit.
He is a veteran, after all.
If he's not mafia he'll benefit us.

And he was red...

Where are all the other people that I pointed the finger at? Please show me my posts because I can't see to find them.

The two listed in my latest post? I gave reasons for why I suspected them in the post. I never said that we should lynch them now... in fact if anything it was just a starting point for later analysis, and of course we couldn't learn anything from lynching them... that's why I voted to lynch Caller... He gives us valuable information. A FoS doesn't mean intent to lynch... I make it rather clear that the ideas are still being formulated.

My medic list wasn't random... and I defended it to Incog already... if anything the fact that I was right about two of the people on there should exonerate me somewhat. If you think I have the balls to kill off two of the people on my list then I appreciate it, but yeah I'm much too safe a player for that.

There are many more suspects of course but I focussed on ones that previously had perhaps been overlooked. I'm not just going to echo sentiments that other people have said.

The amount that you've grossly exaggerated my failings here are outstanding... Where are the "many" people that I accused? Why is my medic list random, when I explained pretty thoroughly how I went about making it? My slip-up with forgetting that elemenope was replaced by incog is understandable in a game with 38 people in it.

clearly mafia here. Why are we even doubting this?

I play safe, therefore I'm mafia... cmon Caller you can do better than that. What's stopping me from being a safe townie?

Good sir, you're not only suspicious but you justify your lack of taking risky actions as making you a good player. That's an outright load of horseL. If you're really a townie that you claim you are just now, then you should be doing a lot more than making a Lload of mistakes or by defending yourself with whatever bullL you come up with.

Again:

LYNCH ITW, MEEPLE, MOTBOB, HIT BC TONIGHT

Now if you excuse me I have to take a L.

Alright... so now you're just making things up. Where did I say that I was a good player? I can't seem to find it. If you could kindly point it out to me. I said I was a safe player, as in not taking tons of risks like some of the hotshots around here. I've admitted I've been sloppy but more so simply because I didn't think that all my posts would be scrutinized to such an extent.

On April 22 2010 15:32 meeple wrote:

Show nested quote +

Well... you have the same role, so his acting can still give hints into what you are. However it kinda sucks for you because you can't really defend his actions.

Ace still requires a little proving but Caller turning up Miller definitely gives his roleclaim a boost and for now at least I'm willing to believe he's a detective.

Am I missing something? We're voting for a double lynch with basically no solid prospects... and there's been very little discussion about this yet somehow we've passed a double lynch vote.

Well... now that we know we have two lynch targets tommorow... Some people have suggested BC (tree.hugger), but I'm not convinced... His posting hasn't been that scummy and although voting for motbob instead of jumping on the Caller bandwagon might be a tell that he wants to avoid being associated with what he thought was a green death... imo its not enough to lynch on.

@d3... for some reason you seem to be attacking me with little/no reason. I've refuted Callers and Incog's accusations of me so if you have nothing else to add why do you keep bringing up my name?

On April 23 2010 13:21 meeple wrote:

Show nested quote +

I don't think there's another plan in the works as of now... but yet I'm not sure if everyone is even on board with this one.

Tonight we have at most 2 vigilantes, and probably just one. These people should use their kills to extract as much information as possible. Seeing as we have a double lynch tommorow, we need to have targets, otherwise it just goes to waste. Hopefully the vigi's are people who are currently active in the thread and willing to research a target, instead of someone who's really inactive

Ace's plan to hit BC tonight and use that information for tommorow's lynch's is good, but it's always good to form your own opinions and not take someone else's and following it blindly. Do your homework and look into his posting history and see if it matches up with your own ideas. Also, consider how much information you get from the kill. You might be like 90% certain someone is red, but if their death doesn't help us spend the double lynch tommorow we might end up killing off townies, even if you do your justice and nab a red.

Mafia can be hiding in the inactives... and it's always a threat, but the problem is even if we get one it doesn't help lead us to their compatriots and win the game. Eventually their voting history and short posts of encouragement/discouragement will lead to them being found out once we have a bit more red blood to sift through.

Medics... your job is alot tougher, since you're kinda playing a feint game with the mafia. I would encourage Ace's protection, since he seems to be a detective and those skills are invaluable later on. On the other hand, the mafia seeing this will be less likely to actually hit Ace and your save will be wasted. But if you don't protect Ace and you go for someone else... then if the mafia call your bluff and hit Ace well its a big loss(assuming blue-ness). If the red had less KP I would say faking the reds out is more viable, since they would be less likely to waste a hit on someone who's probably protected. Given that they have 4 KP, it's not such a big loss to them if the hit is blocked, whereas getting rid of a town detective would be a big payoff... so perhaps worth the risk.

On April 23 2010 14:12 meeple wrote:

Show nested quote +

Eh... well first I don't see how he plays the victim. I looked through his posts on those pages and didn't see that much scum in it. Can you elaborate?

Inactive at times is not really a good mafia tell... there are plenty of real life stuff that gets in the way of a forum mafia game.

On April 23 2010 14:40 meeple wrote:

Show nested quote +

Eh... your thought on a subject matter is always something to consider, knowing how you're making decisions if you're town is invaluable for our success, regardless of how useless you think it is.

Show nested quote +

Continually calling for more deaths is lame...

On April 23 2010 15:08 meeple wrote:

Show nested quote +

On April 23 2010 14:51 Incognito wrote:

On April 23 2010 14:40 meeple wrote:

On April 23 2010 14:35 Falcynn wrote:
True, but I figured posting more useless comments wouldn't help my cause either considering I'm horrible at coming up with my own analysis' and most of my comments would just involve me agreeing with other people. At least that was my thinking at the time.

Eh... your thought on a subject matter is always something to consider, knowing how you're making decisions if you're town is invaluable for our success, regardless of how useless you think it is.

On April 23 2010 14:33 Incognito wrote:

On April 23 2010 14:31 Falcynn wrote:

On April 23 2010 14:12 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
Incognito, I'm rather insulted that you put me on the inactive list. I've been trying to take a more active role in the town in the past few pages, if you would take the time to look. Also, your inactive list is incomplete. For example, I haven't seen falcynn post in days, but he's been voting.

I'm still following the thread fairly closely, just haven't had anything that I felt I should say. Earlier in the thread someone accused me of being a useless chatterbox, and looking at my posts here I'd say that's pretty accurate, so I just wanted to make sure I had a handle over everything before I start making more random posts/jumping on bandwagons.

Probably once night is over I'll try to make/post some of my assumptions based on whether or not BC/RoL die before the next day.

If you're accused of being a useless chatterbox and then just disappear, it looks more suspicious. Congradulations, it seems as if you've been active lurking! Someone plz kill.

Continually calling for more deaths is lame...

Of course. We should sit here and wait for the mafia to kill us.

Either way, you haven't been all to useful. Of course, you did give us your analysis, as promised. But its a half hearted attempt at best. nbtnbt5. Fine. Makes sense. Assassins you can kill him too. Abenson. You say he has a lot of posting. Orly? Look at past games, he's posted a ton. It was useless too. This is not very insightful analysis. You admit that he also says he is useless. Not very much of an analysis, huh?

Also, you post some Rage analysis. Only after you come under more attacks. And you say your suspicion has greatly lessened. Ok, how exactly does that help us? It really doesn't. You also say, "The two listed in my latest post? I gave reasons for why I suspected them in the post. I never said that we should lynch them now". Ok, so you also admit your analysis is half-hearted and not good enough for a lynch. Can you please make it less obvious that you're trying to just get away with the bare minimum? You make me really want to lynch you.

Where is my Rage analysis? I don't recall looking at him too deeply.

Am I destined to continually be picked apart like a loaf of bread in a duck pond? Step back and look at the situation neutrally for a moment. I don't admit that the analysis was half-hearted... I said that it wasn't conclusive, as with any analysis. nbtnbt5 has too little posting for me to be totally comfortable with his lynch, but I do suspect him... Am I not allowed to post analysis that doesn't end with "lynch this guy!!!"

The Abenson issue is non-existent... he was mod-killed and was green. My analysis on his play was wrong. Sry.

Do you take issue with my instructions to medic/vigi's? I'm doing far above the average here, so I don't know where this bare minimum is but its pretty relative.

On April 23 2010 15:20 meeple wrote:

Show nested quote +

Now you're just playing the victim card... don't get modkilled just because some guys are accusing you. If you're really town it won't do shit all but hurt us and you should be fighting for the town's best interests. Just because some people think you're mafia doesn't mean everyone does and it doesn't mean you'll be lynched. It's far too easy to think everyone's against you when some loud and sqauwky guys are harping on you. Buck up man and make a case for yourself. Participate in the town discussion on issues and point out faults and strengths where you see fit.

[QUOTE]On April 23 2010 15:35 meeple wrote:
[QUOTE]On April 23 2010 15:22 Incognito wrote:
[QUOTE]On April 23 2010 15:08 meeple wrote:
[QUOTE]On April 23 2010 14:51 Incognito wrote:
[QUOTE]On April 23 2010 14:40 meeple wrote:
[QUOTE]On April 23 2010 14:35 Falcynn wrote:
True, but I figured posting more useless comments wouldn't help my cause either considering I'm horrible at coming up with my own analysis' and most of my comments would just involve me agreeing with other people. At least that was my thinking at the time.[/QUOTE]

Eh... your thought on a subject matter is always something to consider, knowing how you're making decisions if you're town is invaluable for our success, regardless of how useless you think it is.

[QUOTE]On April 23 2010 14:33 Incognito wrote:
[QUOTE]On April 23 2010 14:31 Falcynn wrote:
[QUOTE]On April 23 2010 14:12 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
Incognito, I'm rather insulted that you put me on the inactive list. I've been trying to take a more active role in the town in the past few pages, if you would take the time to look. Also, your inactive list is incomplete. For example, I haven't seen falcynn post in days, but he's been voting.[/QUOTE]I'm still following the thread fairly closely, just haven't had anything that I felt I should say. Earlier in the thread someone accused me of being a useless chatterbox, and looking at my posts here I'd say that's pretty accurate, so I just wanted to make sure I had a handle over everything before I start making more random posts/jumping on bandwagons.

Probably once night is over I'll try to make/post some of my assumptions based on whether or not BC/RoL die before the next day.[/QUOTE]

If you're accused of being a useless chatterbox and then just disappear, it looks more suspicious. Congradulations, it seems as if you've been active lurking! Someone plz kill.[/QUOTE]

Continually calling for more deaths is lame...
[/QUOTE]

Of course. We should sit here and wait for the mafia to kill us.

Either way, you haven't been all to useful. Of course, you did give us your analysis, as promised. But its a half hearted attempt at best. nbtnbt5. Fine. Makes sense. Assassins you can kill him too. Abenson. You say he has a lot of posting. Orly? Look at past games, he's posted a ton. It was useless too. This is not very insightful analysis. You admit that he also says he is useless. Not very much of an analysis, huh?

Also, you post some Rage analysis. Only after you come under more attacks. And you say your suspicion has greatly lessened. Ok, how exactly does that help us? It really doesn't. You also say, "The two listed in my latest post? I gave reasons for why I suspected them in the post. I never said that we should lynch them now". Ok, so you also admit your analysis is half-hearted and not good enough for a lynch. Can you please make it less obvious that you're trying to just get away with the bare minimum? You make me really want to lynch you.[/QUOTE]

Where is my Rage analysis? I don't recall looking at him too deeply.

Am I destined to continually be picked apart like a loaf of bread in a duck pond? Step back and look at the situation neutrally for a moment. I don't admit that the analysis was half-hearted... I said that it wasn't conclusive, as with any analysis. nbtnbt5 has too little posting for me to be totally comfortable with his lynch, but I do suspect him... Am I not allowed to post analysis that doesn't end with "lynch this guy!!!"

The Abenson issue is non-existent... he was mod-killed and was green. My analysis on his play was wrong. Sry.

Do you take issue with my instructions to medic/vigi's? I'm doing far above the average here, so I don't know where this bare minimum is but its pretty relative. [/QUOTE]

Oh wait nvm. You didn't analyze Rage. You just said you didn't suspect him as much anymore (why?).
[/quote]

For a couple reasons, but I didn't see faults in the way he defended himself... and although I'm still keeping my eye on him, other than his careful posting I didn't see any major scumminess. Also, I've lost some faith in Caller's abilities to pick someone red after the absurd way he attacked me.

[quote]
"I will make an effort to poke the bear and get some information." - Ok. Maybe I'm being a little too harsh. But from someone who posts so much, I expected more from you. [/quote]

I don't post that much anymore... I've quieted down tons lately, and you can see that by my low activity everywhere on the site.

[quote]

Besides your one post with 2 pieces of analysis, your posting is relatively useless. I get the nbtnbt5 analysis. How long did that take? If you find nothing conclusive, you don't go try to find some other information that is? Yes, Abenson may be dead now, but it doesn't change the fact that your analysis was not very insightful. [/quote]
Non-insightful posting is rampant... its really hard to distill truths from someone's posts where emotions aren't really conveyed that much. Still, I'm not copping out there and I'll admit that it wasn't so useful.

[quote]Where did you post vig instructions?
[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE]On April 23 2010 13:21 meeple wrote:
[QUOTE]On April 23 2010 12:58 IntoTheWow wrote:
So, besides lynching BC, is there any other plan?

I see lots of people saying Vigis should hit, but who? I would look into some of the silent guys :/ The ones posting, we can read, but we can't anything with people who barely post.

I know this was brought up on like day 1, but back then people said that silent players would die later on easily, but I don't see how.

It would suck to kill our townies if the mafia happens to be hiding beside inactives.

Have to do some reading on the previous pages, but I wanted to post since I'm going to be away all day tomorrow due to university.[/QUOTE]

I don't think there's another plan in the works as of now... but yet I'm not sure if everyone is even on board with this one.

Tonight we have at most 2 vigilantes, and probably just one. These people should use their kills to extract as much information as possible. Seeing as we have a double lynch tommorow, we need to have targets, otherwise it just goes to waste. Hopefully the vigi's are people who are currently active in the thread and willing to research a target, instead of someone who's really inactive

Ace's plan to hit BC tonight and use that information for tommorow's lynch's is good, but it's always good to form your own opinions and not take someone else's and following it blindly. Do your homework and look into his posting history and see if it matches up with your own ideas. Also, consider how much information you get from the kill. You might be like 90% certain someone is red, but if their death doesn't help us spend the double lynch tommorow we might end up killing off townies, even if you do your justice and nab a red.

Mafia can be hiding in the inactives... and it's always a threat, but the problem is even if we get one it doesn't help lead us to their compatriots and win the game. Eventually their voting history and short posts of encouragement/discouragement will lead to them being found out once we have a bit more red blood to sift through.

Medics... your job is alot tougher, since you're kinda playing a feint game with the mafia. I would encourage Ace's protection, since he seems to be a detective and those skills are invaluable later on. On the other hand, the mafia seeing this will be less likely to actually hit Ace and your save will be wasted. But if you don't protect Ace and you go for someone else... then if the mafia call your bluff and hit Ace well its a big loss(assuming blue-ness). If the red had less KP I would say faking the reds out is more viable, since they would be less likely to waste a hit on someone who's probably protected. Given that they have 4 KP, it's not such a big loss to them if the hit is blocked, whereas getting rid of a town detective would be a big payoff... so perhaps worth the risk. [/QUOTE]

[QUOTE]On April 23 2010 16:05 meeple wrote:
[QUOTE]On April 23 2010 15:52 Incognito wrote:
Oh I didn't see that. Well you could have pointed to that earlier!

[QUOTE]On April 23 2010 13:21 meeple wrote:
[QUOTE]On April 23 2010 12:58 IntoTheWow wrote:
So, besides lynching BC, is there any other plan?

I see lots of people saying Vigis should hit, but who? I would look into some of the silent guys :/ The ones posting, we can read, but we can't anything with people who barely post.

I know this was brought up on like day 1, but back then people said that silent players would die later on easily, but I don't see how.

It would suck to kill our townies if the mafia happens to be hiding beside inactives.

Have to do some reading on the previous pages, but I wanted to post since I'm going to be away all day tomorrow due to university.[/QUOTE]

I don't think there's another plan in the works as of now... but yet I'm not sure if everyone is even on board with this one.

Tonight we have at most 2 vigilantes, and probably just one. These people should use their kills to extract as much information as possible. Seeing as we have a double lynch tommorow, we need to have targets, otherwise it just goes to waste. Hopefully the vigi's are people who are currently active in the thread and willing to research a target, instead of someone who's really inactive

Ace's plan to hit BC tonight and use that information for tommorow's lynch's is good, but it's always good to form your own opinions and not take someone else's and following it blindly. Do your homework and look into his posting history and see if it matches up with your own ideas. Also, consider how much information you get from the kill. You might be like 90% certain someone is red, but if their death doesn't help us spend the double lynch tommorow we might end up killing off townies, even if you do your justice and nab a red.

Mafia can be hiding in the inactives... and it's always a threat, but the problem is even if we get one it doesn't help lead us to their compatriots and win the game. Eventually their voting history and short posts of encouragement/discouragement will lead to them being found out once we have a bit more red blood to sift through.

Medics... your job is alot tougher, since you're kinda playing a feint game with the mafia. I would encourage Ace's protection, since he seems to be a detective and those skills are invaluable later on. On the other hand, the mafia seeing this will be less likely to actually hit Ace and your save will be wasted. But if you don't protect Ace and you go for someone else... then if the mafia call your bluff and hit Ace well its a big loss(assuming blue-ness). If the red had less KP I would say faking the reds out is more viable, since they would be less likely to waste a hit on someone who's probably protected. Given that they have 4 KP, it's not such a big loss to them if the hit is blocked, whereas getting rid of a town detective would be a big payoff... so perhaps worth the risk.

[/QUOTE]

We have at most one vigilante, maybe none. This person should use his kill to kill BC. Which will be able to tell us something about RoL, giving us information to use for our double lynch.

Why shouldn't you randomly kill someone based on your own research? We already have narrowed down a pool, BC and RoL. Unless you want to waste both lynches on these two characters, one of these people must die now. If you were to do your own research on who to kill, you have all the information from the past 2 days. Then, during our Double lynch, we are forced to kill BC/RoL to get us our 1 mafia.

On the other hand, if you kill BC right now, we know whether or not to trust RoL, giving us the flexibility of not killing RoL in the event that BC is mafia or miller. Furthermore, our second lynch will be more accurate since we have the information from the past 2 days PLUS all the information from the night's killings. By making the no-brainer kill now, we can wait until we receive more information for the more accurate lynch.

Medics. Don't follow one person to protect. Follow two. Flip a coin between protecting Ace and me (unless anyone else has a better suggestion on another useful person). That way, the mafia can't really be sure that they can successfully kill either Ace or me. This makes them scared to hit either of us, effectively doubling your protection powers (unless the mafia is really ballsy).

So sorry, meeple, I retract my statement that you're being useless. This post was actually useful. I disagree with some parts of it, but it shows effort. Bravo.[/QUOTE]

Ace and Incog imo are ok people to protect for now... although flipping a coin won't really avoid the potential for double protecting whatever it randomizes it.

I agree about the BC vigi kill... but I want to encourage people, especially those in powerful roles like medics/vigi's to be questioning things in the thread and not following so blindly. If you've made a solid logical case for BC's death (which you have) then there's no reason for a vigi to not follow it.

Now, if it turns out the RoL really is trustable... then it kinda thins out the protection again... but then again if we have two medics, we should be able to cover 3 people pretty nicely and in this case we should use the randomization method suggested by incog to remove personal bias and increase overall protection of the three.

[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE]On April 23 2010 16:10 meeple wrote:
[QUOTE]On April 23 2010 16:05 Korynne wrote:
So uh, RoL's list:

Ace
RoL
Korynne
Scamp

Incognito's list:

Incognito
Ace

So Ace, and who will be the second person that a medic should coin flip?[/QUOTE]

Well both are being selfish and putting themselves on there... but Incog's willingness to somewhat listen to reason and RoL's unproven nature makes me think that Incog is a better candidate. The others, Scamp and you... unless someone can show me otherwise haven't done so much as to warrant themselves critical to town survival.

Alternatively, we can weaken the protection and extend it to three people. With the same randomization that incog suggests.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE]On April 23 2010 16:19 meeple wrote:
[QUOTE]On April 23 2010 16:16 Korynne wrote:
I am not advocating my own protection, this is my first game so I don't have all that much confidence in my deductions until I see the results of the game.

Can we all discuss and settle on a 3rd candidate for medic protection?[/QUOTE]

Well... should we be protecting RoL until he proves himself? Besides, I dunno if we should be spreading protection thin until we need to. But if we were going to pick a third, is there another option other than RoL? I mean... nobody pops into my mind...[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE]On April 23 2010 16:49 meeple wrote:
[QUOTE]On April 23 2010 16:39 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
I actually would say yes, protect RoL, because the mafia know whether or not he's a detective. Here's my proposed plan:

Vig, kill BC.
--If BC flips mafia: yay, we got a mafia kill, and we know that RoL is either a trustworthy detective or an assassin. Now we can choose 2 targets for the double lynch and hopefully bag at least 1 more mafioso.
--If BC flips town: we lynch RoL for a mafia kill and hopefully get another through the double lynch

Medics, protect RoL and Ace. Why the hell should Incognito be protected? Sure, he comes off as pro town and I trust him more than most people right now, but he could easily be mafia trying to shepard the town into trusting him. Further, he has not claimed any kind of blue role, so while he brings forth good analysis we are better off protecting our (most likely) detective Ace and (potential) detective RoL.
[/QUOTE]

You're not worried about wasting precious medic protection on an unproven detective, who might be an assasin? [/QUOTE]

[QUOTE]On April 23 2010 16:56 meeple wrote:
[QUOTE]On April 23 2010 16:53 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
[QUOTE]On April 23 2010 16:49 meeple wrote:
[QUOTE]On April 23 2010 16:39 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
I actually would say yes, protect RoL, because the mafia know whether or not he's a detective. Here's my proposed plan:

Vig, kill BC.
--If BC flips mafia: yay, we got a mafia kill, and we know that RoL is either a trustworthy detective or an assassin. Now we can choose 2 targets for the double lynch and hopefully bag at least 1 more mafioso.
--If BC flips town: we lynch RoL for a mafia kill and hopefully get another through the double lynch

Medics, protect RoL and Ace. Why the hell should Incognito be protected? Sure, he comes off as pro town and I trust him more than most people right now, but he could easily be mafia trying to shepard the town into trusting him. Further, he has not claimed any kind of blue role, so while he brings forth good analysis we are better off protecting our (most likely) detective Ace and (potential) detective RoL.
[/QUOTE]

You're not worried about wasting precious medic protection on an unproven detective, who might be an assasin? [/QUOTE]

Read what I wrote more carefully. The point is, he could be a detective, and the mafia will surely try to kill him tonight if he is, and plus we can lynch him tomorrow if it turned out he was BSing on the rolecheck since BC will die tonight. There is much more reason to protect him than incognito.[/QUOTE]

I fully understand that he could be a detective... I was looking at how likely you thought he was. However, its also possible we protect three people... or you think that spreads it too thin?[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE]On April 23 2010 20:48 meeple wrote:
[QUOTE]On April 23 2010 20:23 RaGe wrote:
Where the hell did JadeFist disappear to?[/QUOTE]

He never really appeared... When you search his name in the thread there are like 30 instances of pointing out how inactive he is... and 2 of his own posts. [/QUOTE]

[QUOTE]On April 23 2010 21:19 meeple wrote:
[QUOTE]On April 23 2010 21:11 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
I have a theory about JadeFist. Here's his only non-signup post:

[quote]
Voted Caller.

Last time I played decafchicken, a long time forum veteran, was the Godfather. I feel like the choice for mafia members is not entirely random and I wouldn't be surprised if a forum "celebrity" such as Caller was mafia.
[/quote]

He whined that the roles are rigged by the host. This makes it look to me as if he wanted an "important" role, but got townie and is not interested in the game. He could be mafia and hoping to make us think just that, but I think for now we have bigger fish to fry.[/QUOTE]

Eh... not really enough to make any conclusions from that though... He has voted so he is around... I wonder why he hasn't replied to any of the prods from people here.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE]On April 23 2010 23:54 meeple wrote:
mmm I wonder if modkills are taken into account when you balance this game... I dunno if we're doing especially poorly... but 15 to 7 after tonight is pretty tight when they have 4 KP. [/QUOTE]

[QUOTE]On April 24 2010 12:19 meeple wrote:
I'm not sure we can safely say there's no vigilantes... just that they didn't follow the town's wishes. I still have hope.

At this point I can't see a reason to not follow Ace's rolecheck, although it's hard to beleive he hit red two nights in a row. I suppose we should trust RoL's RC of BC... he certainly couldn't plan on his compatriots being offed by the mafia and winning so he probably was looking to win over the town and try to gain their protection.

So yeah I agree with the BC, Infund lynch for today I suppose. [/QUOTE]

[QUOTE]On April 24 2010 12:24 meeple wrote:
[QUOTE]On April 24 2010 11:52 Korynne wrote:
Man, no vigis... So I guess basically what Ace said.

Ace is like 99% confirmed detective, and that's the best chance we have. So I agree that we should go for BC and Infundibulum.

I'm rather confused as to why Ace did not get roleblocked. Perhaps RoL got roleblocked instead? In that case I suppose giving us BC and diverting attention from Ace is pretty good for assassin to the town. xD

However I would propose we lynch Infundibulum before BC. If BC turns up innocent we can't really do anything, if Infundibulum turns up not mafia/miller than we need to lynch Ace instead of BC (since that would put Ace at a higher chance of being mafia than BC)? I don't know if we need to get every lynch right to win, but if not then lynching Infund is more useful than lynching BC first (we get the result of the lynch immediately before the next lynch).

I also propose double lynch for tomorrow, seeing as how much we need to speed things up since we're pretty on the verge of dying.

Also motbob goes on suspicion list for suggesting role-claim like immediately.

So vote for double lynch, and vote for Infundibulum before BC.[/QUOTE]

Yeah I think at this point we need the double lynch to survive... [/QUOTE]

[QUOTE]On April 24 2010 13:15 meeple wrote:
Huh... so BC hasn't posted in a while but yet he just voted. Oddly for himself and Ace. Is he mafia giving up?[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE]On April 24 2010 14:08 meeple wrote:
So I was all set to convince you we needed it... but after I started typing out the scenarios... its not looking too bad actually. So, I might retract my vote for that.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE]On April 24 2010 15:08 meeple wrote:
[QUOTE]On April 24 2010 15:01 Korynne wrote:
I can't seem to find anything online about this, but can someone explain to me the pros and cons of double lynching?

Seems like it's only beneficial for town, since we get to decide who to kill, so it's another chance of getting a mafia, whereas not using it just means another night passes and mafia gets to kill more townies. So other than the fact that using it 1st or 2nd day doesn't make much sense, it seems like we should just constantly vote double lynch until we use them up no?[/QUOTE]

Often when we're not completely sure of two reds, a double lynch only serves to speed up town death. Just because we're the ones using it doesn't mean that it necessarily will be a great chance of hitting red. The best times to use a double lynch is when we're almost sure of two reds... then we have a good chance of offing two in one night.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE]On April 24 2010 15:23 meeple wrote:
Scamp

+ Show Spoiler +

On April 19 2010 12:32 Scamp wrote:
I'll warn you right now LardyGooser, if you continue to mention your own noobiness whenever you make a point then I'm going to get you lynched. Even if you really don't know what you're doing, you can't be allowed to shirk responsibility of your opinions or defend yourself by way of inexperience.

Anyway, I agree with you and Radfield, if people are still inactive with 6 hours to go or so then we don't really need to worry about them. Even if they just post/vote at the last minute we can just pressure or kill them the next day. No townie that actually wants to win would use this strategy to lurk, so that's that.

Also, it isn't really that hard to go after/find people that are both largely inactive and suspicious too.

Fun note: Tree.Hugger didn't read the rules!

His mention of theLardyGooser seemed genuine, and although it isn't true in all cases especially not with experienced players, mafia tend to avoid each other a bit.

+ Show Spoiler +

On April 21 2010 20:58 Scamp wrote:
Alrighty, I've been asked to take a look at Abenson since he's directly below me on the list. This is a horrible person to try and analyze because not only has a lot of people already done it for me, but he hasn't posted anything since those people spoke on him.

It is interesting to note that he did propose to keep Caller around noting: "If he's not mafia he'll benefit us." He also thinks BM's assassin plan is dumb but in his final post he's willing to discuss it.

So, there really isn't much to go on with him this game IMO. He's either confused town or confused scum. Honestly, I'd actually consider him being an assassin based on what he's said so far.

Not liking the last five pages or so at all. Just a lot of people bickering at each other and the same names popping up over and over. It's all a major distraction, and I have no idea what it's supposed to be distracting from. Shame on every townie that's willingly a part of it, what the hell do you think you're doing?

I also wonder why Bill Murray seems to have dropped his plan so suddenly and willingly. I have to confess that it didn't make sense to me, so maybe I missed something, but I don't think that anything that has happened so far should have derailed the plan as he proposed it.

And now for the centerpiece: Ace and Caller. I actually really like Caller's defense but as he noted there really isn't any defending him now. If Ace is mafia trying to BS us then I'll happily take one mislynch now for a dead mafia the next day, whether by lynch or by vig shot. And if Ace is a townie or assassin or whatever trying to BS us, then I'll seriously have to think about playing with him ever again.

This also seemed genuine... he could've taken the opportunity to put some suspicion on Abenson but he didn't, although his analysis wasn't helpful it also wasn't incriminating.

+ Show Spoiler +

On April 22 2010 05:52 Scamp wrote:
I agree with Korynne. Tree.Hugger's logic is suspect and looks like a distraction. Why would any mafia call Ace a liar when he didn't target one of their own?

Even WIFOM doesn't really work here.

Tree.hugger turned out assasin... so he wasn't exactly with town interests... and that's what Scamp picks up here.

So... I can't see anything pointing to Scamp as scum. If he was red, he could have been trying to support a tree.hugger FoS in that last quote but tree.hugger wasn't really a popular candidate and there seems little reason for him to do that.

I'm thinking he's green for now...[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE]On April 24 2010 15:30 meeple wrote:
So perhaps I shouldn't have posted so hastily... He did make this post around the time of the jpak lynch

[QUOTE]On April 20 2010 09:26 Scamp wrote:
Right now it's either Jpak or nothing. I don't agree with nothing so let's get a lynch.[/QUOTE]

And his voting seems to be somewhat bandwagony... He votes Rage then changes to jpak and the next cycle he votes Caller. On the other hand... that's what a lot of people did... so it's not entirely odd. I still say green[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE]On April 24 2010 15:31 meeple wrote:
[QUOTE]On April 24 2010 15:27 Ace wrote:
were those posts you quoted by scamp around the time of the jpak votes? :/ [/QUOTE]

I added the only real post pertaining to the jpak lynch... So no the ones before weren't specifically for the jpak lynch[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE]On April 24 2010 15:40 meeple wrote:
[QUOTE]On April 24 2010 15:33 Ace wrote:
That last post was good though. jpak or nothing aka "as long as anyone dies why the fuck not?

"

[/QUOTE]

Hrm... yeah that was a pretty common mindset at the time though...

Who was the dead guy who voted?[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE]On April 24 2010 15:48 meeple wrote:
Something to look closer at then...

BrownBear not voting is strange... a hesitancy to vote off one of your own is something that we might see showing through here[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE]On April 24 2010 15:55 meeple wrote:
So Brownbear replaced Zona... We might be able to glean information about him from BC's lynch... since Zona ripped apart one of his arguments early on. Of course there's always the possibility that it was staged... but something to consider.

+ Show Spoiler +

On April 18 2010 05:16 Zona wrote:

Show nested quote +

Wait, what? You claim to be one of the "big names" and you are already giving yourself an excuse for low activity? Seems like a convenient excuse so you produce fewer chances of slipping up and revealing yourself if you were mafia.

Show nested quote +

Are you kidding? You really think that in a game where most players cannot PM, someone would both be able to PM and DT check? As well - all the roles have been revealed in the game, none of the abilities are hidden. Why would you even consider that DTs would be able to PM as well?

Detectives need to target players with the aim of finding mafia in a game with no out of thread communications with fellow players. Why? With no out of thread communications with fellow players the usefulness of finding a fellow town player is greatly diminished.

It probably isn't a good idea to claim detective early in the game unless you're close to being lynched. If the town already has some suspicion on someone you have checked to be mafia, you should keep up the pressure. However, early in the game it'll be difficult to go after someone you found red if the rest of the town isn't suspicious of them, so keep your result under your hat and pay attention to what this person does, and later on see if you can identify this person's teammates, or go after them once they create more suspicion upon themselves. If the town is getting killed off and is approaching a loss, AT THAT POINT you probably want to claim if you've found some red. You may also want to be more aggressive in going after someone if lynching that person would take mafia numbers from odd to even, which will reduce their KP by one (a big deal in a game such as this).

Show nested quote +

Curious. If medics do what you instruct them to do, then if any of these players are town, it makes them easy to kill at night and easy for the mafia to deprive the town of their ability. But actually from my point of view the only player on this list that I would really try to keep around if town would be Ace. I haven't seen Caller being particularly useful as a town player, nor you, especially in this type of setup. You seem to be strongest in games where PMs are allowed, even your plans contain hopes that DTs are able to PM. The "build a town PM circle and then DT-check/confirm everyone" strategy doesn't work here, and at least from my view that seems to be your strength, rather than people analysis. In fact in past games as a prominent pro-town player you've heavily advocated lynching players who ended up being town when you couldn't rely on DT-checks and other ways to confirm.

Show nested quote +

I can't believe I'm calling you out on so much of your post...but Mad Hatters are similar to vigilantes, except delayed. You say they're like DTs??? What the heck?

Anyways - vigilantes, hold your shot until you're really sure a player is mafia, because if you screw up, you contribute to REMOVING AVAILABLE MISLYNCHES from the town!!! That's right. If you screw up your shot, the town could possibly lose an opportunity to screw up a lynch because you killed an extra town-aligned player. And mislynches are more valuable to the town than screwed up vigilante hits because mislynches come with vote counts that include mafia votes, which can be analyzed later on.

Also - if early in the game you think you're SURE a player is mafia - YOU ARE WRONG! Look at past games where vigilantes fired early. Especially World at War, considering nukes as daytime vigilante hits. Notice how many town-aligned players with nukes were "SURE" that their nuke targets were mafia - and almost all of them would have hit town! That's why being "sure" early in the game is just a delusion.

Mad hatter - since your bombs don't activate until you die, go ahead and place some bombs early - but try not to get killed early either! If you're going to die early you might as well hold back on your bombs, as they will then act as early-game vigilante hits.

On April 18 2010 05:25 Zona wrote:
A message to assassins:
Although your goal in this game is to eliminate your fellow assassins, for all other aspects of the game, you should start off playing pro-town (at least until the town has an overwhelming advantage). It is in your own self-interest to do so. Why? It's in YOUR OWN SELF INTEREST to prolong the game as long as possible. And at least initially, it looks to me that mafia has the numbers advantage, if you as assassins are ignored.

Why? First of all, notice the odds. Likely 5-7 mislynches allowed for 8 successful lynches. It's not easy for the town to go >50% success in lynching, so if we don't do well here, it's likely mafia will win early, reducing the amount of time you have to reach your own personal goal. So helping the town with your votes helps you prolong the game and increase your OWN PERSONAL CHANCES OF WINNING.

Also - HOLD YOUR KILL unless you are sure your target is another assassin. Why? First, you only have 2 chances to screw up - so if you use your kill casually you could waste your killing abilities and be left impotent and relying on the chance that others will somehow kill your opponents for you. FURTHERMORE - EACH OF YOUR SCREWED UP KILLS HELPS EITHER THE TOWN OR MAFIA TOWARDS WINNING, and reduces the amount of time you have to win yourself. So don't deprive yourself of time by killing casually. Only in desperate times (when one of mafia or town are visibly dominating) will you have to employ your kill to try to balance the numbers so that the winning side won't immediately win and end the game for you as well.

On April 18 2010 05:36 Zona wrote:
Hah, as I post you I see that you are still making arguments based on the idea DTs can PM. Confirmed townies are somewhat useful in a game without out of thread communications, but are a LOT LESS USEFUL THAN FINDING MAFIA. When a town member has to be publicly confirmed, the value is a lot less.

I would like you to elaborate on your "town circle" idea in this game where no town members have the ability to PM. If you truly believe you are right and I am wrong, you should have no problem explaining how it would work to benefit the town.

[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE]On April 24 2010 16:36 meeple wrote:
[QUOTE]On April 24 2010 16:30 Incognito wrote:
Hi I'm back, just need to check up on the last few pages in the thread, but I'm just posting this right now to announce that I have taken a hit.[/QUOTE]

Do you mean you were saved by a medic or you're a veteran?[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE]On April 24 2010 17:14 meeple wrote:
Woooot!! Nice... we're starting to see the change here. Nice job Ace[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE]On April 27 2010 15:59 meeple wrote:
Augh... that was a cripping blow... although perhaps we can take some consolation in that they didn't hit anyone else tonight. I just finished a big exam so expect some analysis on Korynne soon according to his list.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE]On April 27 2010 17:26 meeple wrote:
[QUOTE]On April 27 2010 16:27 Korynne wrote:
HER list. Dx *growls*

Scara's last post smells like scum. Why? I think stacking Ace is a big waste of mafia KP. If they stack Ace, that's -1 T, and without the 100% confirmed lynch we might have a 33% chance? So that's like -1.33T (-1 T - .33M - .66T = -1.33T). Whereas if they killed 3 random townies that's -2.5T at least (given that medics might randomly protect them), with Ace having say 100% chance of catching someone (since he talks about it in here, maybe mafia thought he would for sure catch someone). So that's -1.5T (-2.5T - 1 M) at least.

I am inclined to believe that this was a dumb idea by Mafia, and Scara seems to think it was a good idea and would have executed it.[/QUOTE]

lol... sorry chica... my bad

I don't agree about Scara's last post though... Stacking was a waste of Mafia KP imo... but he was pretty integral to the town's success so far. That's not saying we can't win without him...[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE]On April 27 2010 18:13 meeple wrote:
Korynne

So normally I'd start with who she replaced, which in this case is Fulgrim, but the guy didn't post anything really... so that's useless..

She tends to play the newb card a bit in the beginning but that's excusable since it doesn't seem to prevent her from contributing

[QUOTE]On April 22 2010 04:27 Korynne wrote:
Ouch, this makes things more complicated. So Ace was WRONG in that he incorrectly deduced that Caller was mafia. But I guess there isn't much to do about the fact that he "role-checked" Caller and Caller turned up mafia...

So either Ace just failed at deducing if Caller was mafia, and he's innocent.
Or Ace is mafia, in that case, it would be extremely risky to claim Caller as mafia. As mafia, Ace would know that Caller was not mafia, so claiming he's mafia is pretty much death if he turned out townie. There would be a very low probability of him turning up Miller.

So for now, I think Ace is telling the truth, but a bit sketchy with analysis (possibly just because Caller's acting funny, which seems counterproductive from his role as a townie?).[/QUOTE]

[Hmmm... I suppose this is the newbness coming through here... since really the fact that Caller was miller and not mafia means that Ace is like 99% detective...

[QUOTE]On April 22 2010 09:11 Korynne wrote:
Actually, now that I think about it, Caller being a miller seems the best for Ace being detective (like better than if Caller ended up being mafia). What happy coincidence. If you guys say Ace is the best player, then I think we have a good chance to win! =)[/quote]

Lol... frick... as soon as I typed this out I saw this... Alright so your logic is up to snuff. I'm still including the other thing in there since I like this sort of stream of thought thing that tells my impressions of her as I read through her posts...

She thinks alot(or at least several times) from the "mafia" perspective... which means she's either town or a very confident red. To explain more about this since I looked back and realized it didn't make too much sense as it was... I think that although of course thinking from the mafia perspective is necessary, people tend to shy away from it (especially reds) since it links their name with mafia... In past games, when I was town, people have accused me of being red on the basis that I was very willing to put myself in red shoes.

[QUOTE]On April 23 2010 15:29 Korynne wrote:
nai.protoss. D=

If you are town-aligned, GIVEN HOW BAD WE ARE DOING RIGHT NOW PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE DON'T GO KILL YOURSELF. >.>

I don't care what Incognito says, a townie voting with someone "reliable" is better than a dead townie.

My proposal is to SPREAD OUT "newbs" to vote with people the town generally consider to be innocent (Ace for example right now). I see no reason at all why this could be worse than having them die or follow stupid bandwagons.

I propose that nai.protoss votes with Ace tomorrow.[/QUOTE]

Yearg... you really love to put all the emphasis out there with caps and bolds on all your important parts... god forbid you learn how to use colours

...

Regardless, This was a weird idea to me... we can't really force someone to vote with a innocent, but besides that it definitely takes away some information about that person (their voting record). I think Incog pointed out that pretty soon after too... iirc

[QUOTE]On April 23 2010 15:52 Korynne wrote:
Well sure that's the ideal situation. But if nai.protoss feels like quitting surely we'd prefer a brainless townie to a resigned dead townie.

If we run out of better suspects we can lynch him, but for the meantime I can't see how it would hurt the town to keep him around as votes. I think this is safer than having him vote someone "randomly" because he's "new" and "doesn't know who to vote for" etc.

I mean same goes for people like Scaramanga, who says he's bad at analyzing so he'll just hear what other people have to say.

If they're not going to contribute, we should at least make sure their actions are controlled by townies, rather than randomness. Given that they are "bad" players, I don't think having people like that being the last 2 mafia would hurt us terribly as lynching them instead of bigger threats.

Of course, if someone's giving intelligent analysis one game and playing dumb the next, then this will not apply.

I am in no way discouraging analysis and input, but if you /have/ to play that card then I suggest you follow someone significantly townie and probably a good player, aka Ace right now.

Also, this means that if we're at critical mass, we assume them to be mafia and not assume them to vote with someone else(LYLO).[/QUOTE]

Again with this weird plan... hrmph... but now you also mention that we could lynch him?

[QUOTE]On April 23 2010 16:10 Korynne wrote:
Considering how low we are on townies, I really don't think having a dead townie is good for our causes, especially since mafia KP is so high.

I guess we'll just wait until tomorrow morning to decide what to do, but one dead townie is one step closer to losing. One inactive townie lynch right now is 1.5 steps closer to losing (.5 being a 50% chance we could've lynched a mafia instead).

Anyway, no point arguing about this now when we have other things to do. nai.protoss, do what you see fit and JUSTIFY YOURSELF AS BEST AS YOU CAN WHEN DOING SO.[/QUOTE]

Now you say we shouldn't lynch? There's some non-sensical-ish things that I could focus on here... but I won't since I think the general idea about a persons post is more important...

[QUOTE]On April 23 2010 17:12 Korynne wrote:
I posted the probabilities for 3 people. xD
I mean it still requires 3 hits to guarantee death, but for 2 people I'd say 89% is close enough to certainty.

Now the Ace with 2/3 and RoL with 1/3:
AA = 44% chance of double protecting Ace.
AR + RA = 44% chance of protecting each once.
RR = 11% chance of double protecting RoL.

So from the other side:
1 hit on Ace: 11% chance of killing him
2 hits on Ace: 44% chance of killing him
3 hits on Ace: guaranteed to kill.

1 hit on RoL: 44% chance of killing him
2 hits on RoL: 89% chance of killing him
3 hits on RoL: guaranteed to kill.

Do these numbers look better than 50/50? xD (1 hit: 25%, 2 hits: 75%)[/QUOTE]

These types of things were a nice contribution... Before now, it's mainly thoughts about stuff that's already happened and now she's being proactive and forming plans and putting forward ideas. (Do I smell a math major?)

[QUOTE]On April 24 2010 11:52 Korynne wrote:
Man, no vigis... So I guess basically what Ace said.

Ace is like 99% confirmed detective, and that's the best chance we have. So I agree that we should go for BC and Infundibulum.

I'm rather confused as to why Ace did not get roleblocked. Perhaps RoL got roleblocked instead? In that case I suppose giving us BC and diverting attention from Ace is pretty good for assassin to the town. xD

However I would propose we lynch Infundibulum before BC. If BC turns up innocent we can't really do anything, if Infundibulum turns up not mafia/miller than we need to lynch Ace instead of BC (since that would put Ace at a higher chance of being mafia than BC)? I don't know if we need to get every lynch right to win, but if not then lynching Infund is more useful than lynching BC first (we get the result of the lynch immediately before the next lynch).

I also propose double lynch for tomorrow, seeing as how much we need to speed things up since we're pretty on the verge of dying.

Also motbob goes on suspicion list for suggesting role-claim like immediately.

So vote for double lynch, and vote for Infundibulum before BC.[/QUOTE]

Despite no-one following this... it was actually a good idea. This way we could've paused and decided whether to lynch Ace or BC. I think it ended up working anyways... since her non-vote on BC staved off his execution for a bit.

At this point she went hardcore into analysis... posting it about several players and coming to the conclusion that :

- Scamp - scummish
- d3 - dunno
- brownbear - scummish

A reoccuring theme in Korynne's posts is that she somewhat suspects Scaramanga... but yet she never comes out and analyzes him or does anything but prod a bit.

Conclusions: Her contributions and willingness to do analysis and generate discussion outweigh some of the odd choices/strategies at the beginning. I don't completely trust her scumdar... and she seems unsure of herself but I'm peggin' her green

Sidenote: I definitely misread your post about who to check for some reason or another the "16" was ignored by my brain... I am supposed to check up on Rage... but I've already written this so we'll see if I get to Rage tonight.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE]On April 28 2010 00:23 meeple wrote:
[QUOTE]On April 27 2010 23:07 RaGe wrote:
I changed my mind

Scaramanga is mafia.[/QUOTE]

What changed your mind? What information do we get from his lynch?[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE]On April 28 2010 10:00 meeple wrote:
Brownbear is indeed pretty suspicious... but I think at this point it's his further connections that make him a more interesting target to lynch, especially with a double lynch coming up.

Scaramanga is playing the awful player card a lot... and regardless of how true it is... perhaps its not the most useful defense. However, it's interesting to note that when the votes started stacking up against him motbob rushed to his defense.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE]On April 28 2010 13:53 meeple wrote:
Alright... well in light of this roleclaim I'm going to switch my vote. Unfortunately, BrownBear picked a role that can't be easily verified. He's incorrect that the mafia will now be after him, since they'll spend 2 hits to kill him when really they could be going after more easily killable townies.
He's still under suspicion, perhaps now more than before... but if he's mafia it will be really difficult for him to get away with. [/QUOTE]

[QUOTE]On April 28 2010 14:03 meeple wrote:
[QUOTE]On April 28 2010 13:58 BrownBear wrote:
Really? Fuck. How come Ace did it earlier and got away with it?

I guess I get modkilled, sorry about that. I assumed that since Ace had done it before, it was ok.[/QUOTE]

Ace roleclaimed... but didn't post the PM iirc[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE]On April 28 2010 14:18 meeple wrote:
lol... well if that really is sincere then it's consistent with some sub-par play that people are associating with being red...[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE]On April 28 2010 14:19 meeple wrote:
[QUOTE]On April 28 2010 12:22 nbtnbt5 wrote:
[QUOTE]On April 28 2010 08:50 Incognito wrote:
Hello nbtnbt5, would you care to explain to us why you voted for Scaramanga?[/QUOTE]

I'm pretty easily swayed... (as you can see from my blind support of BM's assassin plan when I really didn't read/understand it)

[/QUOTE]

I'm getting sick of people using "I suck" or variations as an excuse for questionable actions. [/QUOTE]

[QUOTE]On April 28 2010 14:42 meeple wrote:
[QUOTE]On April 28 2010 14:38 Korynne wrote:
*sigh* But claiming veteran is pretty awesome for mafia, because then they have a reason for why they weren't hit at night.[/QUOTE]

Ah there will be some tell... unless the mafia double up hits on someone... a missing mafia hit will mean either a medic or a veteran took it. But you're right.. the mafia don't really want to hit him now... since it will be an expensive kill. erg[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE]On April 28 2010 17:26 meeple wrote:
[QUOTE]On April 28 2010 16:57 Korynne wrote:
So does this mean BrownBear will be modkilled? Or we still voting him off the island anyway? xD[/QUOTE]

If he's allowed to continue playing I would probably encourage people to stave off voting for BrownBear... any roleclaim, especially such a fumbled one... should be taken at least somewhat seriously. Although I admit this one is really difficult to verify.
We can't afford to lose a blue right now...[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE]On April 28 2010 23:46 meeple wrote:
[QUOTE]On April 28 2010 23:37 Scamp wrote:
There's an odd trend of people voting for me and not posting, or posting about something else while not mentioning me at all but still voting for me.

[QUOTE]On April 28 2010 13:53 meeple wrote:
Alright... well in light of this roleclaim I'm going to switch my vote. Unfortunately, BrownBear picked a role that can't be easily verified. He's incorrect that the mafia will now be after him, since they'll spend 2 hits to kill him when really they could be going after more easily killable townies.
He's still under suspicion, perhaps now more than before... but if he's mafia it will be really difficult for him to get away with. [/QUOTE]

So it's really difficult for anyone to verify it, mafia won't be after him and town should back off. But it'll be really difficult for him to get away with it if he's mafia. Do you see how that doesn't make any sense?

The only reason I do believe BB's claim? That was perhaps the dumbest way to claim that I've seen yet. It oddly lends credibility to the claim.

But the reasons why I don't trust it: He apparently couldn't be bothered to read the rules even though he's trying to exploit them. The rules do not say that it's illegal to fake a roleclaim from the host, but they do say you cannot post a PM from a host. See the difference here? Notice he wasn't modkilled.

And what's with risking a modkill so that the town doesn't waste a lynch? That's just silly. [/QUOTE]

With everyone watching his actions you think it will still be easy for him to pretend to be town? I just said it would be difficult to verify, that doesn't contradict the fact that everyone is looking for signs of scumminess.

I'm not sure if we can totally count on flamewheel to be completely strict can we? He wasn't modkilled but that could possibly be because flamewheel thought it was a honest mistake and let him get away with it. Or even that, just like with Jugan, he's waiting until the next cycle to proclaim modkills... regardless it requires some host input to really decide.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE]On April 29 2010 09:19 meeple wrote:
[QUOTE]On April 29 2010 09:01 nbtnbt5 wrote:
[QUOTE]On April 29 2010 07:11 madnessman wrote:
What the heck is this? I'm starting to think nbtnbt5 is getting WAY too complacent in this game. Such posting is unacceptable... While understandable as terrible play as mafia, I can't fathom why any town-aligned player would EVER post like this. Irregardless of new or not new. Unlike nai who actually came out and analyzed somebody, nbt's post history is a series of one liners, and he hasn't even responded to or acknowledged korynn's request. I am thus changing my vote to him, in the hope that he feels pressured to properly explain himself.[/QUOTE]

Sorry >.< And sorry, but what was korynn's request?[/QUOTE]

She posted a list and asked people to analyze the person 16 down from them... Go search it.

I don't even know who to go after tonight... and the deadline is in 45 minutes...[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE]On April 29 2010 11:19 meeple wrote:
Ah... balls... this really shouldn't happen[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE]On April 29 2010 16:19 meeple wrote:
The game is still winnable even if the mafia get all the hits... we just need some good suspects.

For some reason Bill Murray and nbtnbt5 strike me as mafia... I'll compile a good reason list in a bit. [/QUOTE]

[QUOTE]On April 29 2010 17:38 meeple wrote:
[QUOTE]On April 29 2010 16:37 Bill Murray wrote:
you are truly an idiot meeple[/QUOTE]

Oh? You have a better idea? Throw it out there man, I'm all ears...[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE]On April 29 2010 20:50 meeple wrote:
Has it really been tolerated? Flamewheel has been good at modkilling inactives... the problem is that as long as those people just barely post enough and vote are still in this game because they followed the rules.

Perhaps a different criteria for inactivity is in order. Regardless I still think we can pick the red out. Have faith[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE]On April 30 2010 23:54 meeple wrote:
Ummm so do you guys actually have any reasons for voting for me? Or are you actually following Bill Murray?[/QUOTE]

ZBot

194 Posts

April 20 2010 01:20 GMT

#23

Fulgrim

+ Show Spoiler +

On April 15 2010 06:37 Fulgrim wrote:
I'll play if there's room

On April 18 2010 04:34 Fulgrim wrote:

Show nested quote +

On April 18 2010 04:13 Bill Murray wrote:
well, the best strategy going forward has been detailed by me already

On April 14 2010 04:28 Qatol wrote:

On April 14 2010 04:09 ~OpZ~ wrote:
Disregard....Forgot my Finals/End of Term/HW/Needing a book read by Tuesday...

Thanks so much for doing this! Can't devote enough time to play seriously = sitting it out. So nice to see.

You yourself are around the thread enough, while not even playing in it, to actually play more competently than most of the people who play. Furthermore, in the small amount of what you devote, due to the time it takes you being disproportionate in relation to the time required of others to build cases taking into acount the discrepancy in skill level, you really should play.
you could still be among the best players even when devoting less time.

On April 14 2010 05:04 Foolishness wrote:
If one of the assassins wins (i.e. all but one assassin are dead) does the game end? Or does it keep playing out until one of mafia/town win?

I hope the latter.

On April 14 2010 04:50 Jugan wrote:
instead of a picture of lightning you should have a picture of a goat.

african or european?

i promise consolidation if you let me edit

I seriously doubt that there are many assasins in this game. I don't think it will actually have too much impact on gameplay. Instead we should focus on the obvious objective of finding mafia.

ZBot

194 Posts

April 20 2010 01:20 GMT

#24

JadeFist

+ Show Spoiler +

On April 15 2010 15:22 JadeFist wrote:
I'll play if there's room. I'll be activer this time.

On April 19 2010 13:51 JadeFist wrote:
Voted Caller.

Last time I played decafchicken, a long time forum veteran, was the Godfather. I feel like the choice for mafia members is not entirely random and I wouldn't be surprised if a forum "celebrity" such as Caller was mafia.

ZBot

194 Posts

April 20 2010 01:21 GMT

#25

Roffles

+ Show Spoiler +

On April 15 2010 15:57 Roffles wrote:
I'll also play if there's room. It's been a while though.

On April 16 2010 13:17 Roffles wrote:

Show nested quote +

TL has a clock that runs on KST. As long as everyone is on the same clock, I think there shouldn't be any issues.

On April 19 2010 08:54 Roffles wrote:
My bad, just woke up from OSL tiebreakers. Lemme catch up on what I've missed in the last day and see what's going on.

On April 19 2010 09:00 Roffles wrote:
Yeah, just gonna chime in a little here. I disagree on lynching an inactive. I'd rather gamble and kill off someone suspicious than take a guess at an inactive. As someone earlier mentioned, if people are inactive, then as the game drags on, people aren't going to take their word at all. Why not just gamble now and take a shot at someone who seems suspicious now? Go big or go home.

On April 19 2010 09:05 Roffles wrote:
Yes, you could play it safe and kill off someone who's not doing anything, but I'd still say go big or go home. I think since we have some various factions at the moment, while it might not be the greatest idea, if we could kill off one of them, we might be able to grab a whiff at allegiances this early on in the game.

On April 19 2010 09:11 Roffles wrote:

Show nested quote +

Sounds logical and safe.

And tiebreakers. 7 hours FML.

On April 21 2010 15:58 Roffles wrote:
I clearly see tempers are flaring. People are mad. It's heating up in here.

Too behind to post anything useful besides "U Guys Mad".

On April 22 2010 14:38 Roffles wrote:
Sorry guys, gonna have to look elsewhere for one more.

ZBot

194 Posts

April 20 2010 01:21 GMT

#26

krndandaman

+ Show Spoiler +

On April 15 2010 20:46 krndandaman wrote:
sign me up!

On April 18 2010 11:21 krndandaman wrote:
Bill Murray become our president?

ZBot

194 Posts

April 20 2010 01:22 GMT

#27

Falcynn

+ Show Spoiler +

On April 16 2010 06:44 Falcynn wrote:
I'd like to sign up too if there's room

On April 17 2010 13:37 Falcynn wrote:
LOCK AND LOAADDDD!!! BRING ON THE PAAAAAAAIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIINNNNNNNNNNNNN!!!!!!!!!!!

On April 18 2010 15:06 Falcynn wrote:

Show nested quote +

Same here, the main problem I'm seeing is that this system seems to rely on the assassins wishing to comply with the town's wishes, when that's really not necessary for them. I'm sleepy though so maybe I'm missing something, I'll go over all this again in the morning.

On April 19 2010 00:49 Falcynn wrote:
Just curious, I know that there are internet mafia games where there aren't any blue roles or clues, so how do those usually work for first day lynches? Do they usually just make a random lynch and judge people's reactions or something else?

The only internet mafia games I've ever played were with clues, so I really have no idea what to contribute right now other that saying that some of the other plans posted don't seem to make much sense to me.

On April 19 2010 06:18 Falcynn wrote:

Show nested quote +

I don't know, it seems possible. I haven't read over any of the recent games, but if this was something Caller tried once and it worked, I wouldn't put it past him (or anyone really) to try the same thing at least a second time. I voted for him for that reason, but again, I'm pretty bad at online mafia and am only voting for him as I can't think of any other better method as I still don't have too much faith in BM's plan.

On April 19 2010 06:24 Falcynn wrote:

Show nested quote +

That actually makes a lot of sense. Considering I don't understand BM's plan much, I was trying to figure out his motive for coming up with that plan. Whether he's townie and just happened to come up with a fairly odd plan, or if he's mafia and is...well I don't know much of a motive for him being mafia, but this plan seems great for him if he is an assassin.

On April 19 2010 23:26 Falcynn wrote:

Show nested quote +

That's why I'm changing my vote from Caller. I only voted Caller back when he was still inactive, but now that he's gotten pretty active I'm going to switch my vote to RoL since he's the only guy that people seem to jumping on who seems to be truly inactive. I can see people's reasons for voting for Jugan, and he definitely seems like a good candidate for tomorrow's lynch, but I think we should lynch someone who's been completely inactive just about in order to encourage people to start posting more. Even if all we do is force people to post random one liners that gives no benefit to the town, without clues we're going to need everyone to start posting in order to have something to analyze.

On April 20 2010 10:33 Falcynn wrote:
Booo I only get $40? Is it possible for me to give my cash to someone else? No idea who I'd give it to, but I doubt I'll be spending it.

On April 20 2010 10:45 Falcynn wrote:

Show nested quote +

Eh, sure. I give my $40 to Foolishness.

On April 20 2010 11:06 Falcynn wrote:

Show nested quote +

It didn't sound like he wanted to exclude pre-day 2 information, just that he didn't want people to make accusations based on conversations until day 2. We should still keep track of people's posting habits, but we shouldn't make any definitive accusations/start bandwagons based off posting until after we have enough content to analyze.

Although it's pretty easy to understand how that post probably rubbed people the wrong way with him proposing a "ban" rather than just simply stating something like "hey guys, let's not start any bandwagons based off of posts until after we have enough to analyze etc.".

On April 20 2010 11:07 Falcynn wrote:
and it turns out tree.hugger already posted a better worded response than me...20 minutes earlier...damn it.

On April 21 2010 05:37 Falcynn wrote:
Wait...so Caller's argument against Rage is that Rage is way too calm in his defending of himself and as a result must be mafia? I realize I'm a total noob and am probably being premature with this but I'm giving a FoS (am I using this term right? just looked it up on that mafiascum wiki) to Caller, because it seems like he's purposely trying to sow discord with these "rules" he's using to spot mafia.

Then again, as stated, he is a way more experienced player than me, but I still don't see the logic in the way he makes some of his accusations.

On April 21 2010 05:43 Falcynn wrote:
Because I only played the first game, and another one after that. First game I died after like day 4 and mostly just spammed the thread without contributing anything. Second game I played, I pretty much did the same thing (with less spamming). I also did the "newspaper" thing, which I gave up after the first 2 days on both games.

So yeah, not noob, just really bad at this game.

On April 21 2010 12:52 Falcynn wrote:

Show nested quote +

Well awesome, I started trying to build up a case against Caller since I started getting suspicious of his behavior, but I guess this makes all of that pointless if it's true. I'm all for lynching him and seeing how it turns out.

On April 23 2010 14:31 Falcynn wrote:

Show nested quote +

On April 24 2010 13:49 Falcynn wrote:

Show nested quote +

But assassins can RC so I'm willing to bet that RoL checked BC thinking he'd be assassin, found out he was mafia, and decided to let town know.

On April 24 2010 15:08 Falcynn wrote:
Just off the top of my head without doing any real deep analysis, I'd like to point out the first posts on this page:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=119497&currentpage=67
AcrossFiveJulys basically admitted to being assassin/vig (although we know now that he was assassin), however what I found interesting was how incognito seemed to lure AcrossFiveJulys into admitting that, and AFJ died shortly after (my assumption being that incognito could've thought that AFJ was a vig).

After that back and forth I was certain that if AcrossFiveJulys died then it'd give me some small evidence towards accusing incognito (although I do realize that it's a bit of a stretch to make an accusation based purely on that). However, looking through his archives, I didn't find anything particularly scummy. Although I'll admit I am pretty bad at analysis, but after seeing that Ace has some suspicions, I figured I'd bring this up seeing how I had been saving that page.

Then again, I'm sure incognito or anyone else could easily claim that I'm mafia and had AcrossFiveJulys killed to save myself from getting killed (just wondering, if a mafia were to hit an assassin, and that assassin were to target a mafia, would the mafia hit take priority? Or would both targets die?) so I don't know what else to say until I find something else.

On April 27 2010 22:57 Falcynn wrote:
Well, I was supposed to analyze Ace, but that wasn't really necessary it seems. So I'll analyze Scamp, I'll try to have it up in between classes today.

On April 28 2010 07:50 Falcynn wrote:
There's already been enough analysis of Scamp, but one more wouldn't hurt, considering Ace is gone (and that I doubt anyone at all suspected him) I'm analyzing the next guy on the list.

Early on he kept making mention of BM's assassin plan, and trying to lead the discussion back to it even though most people seemed to have moved past it after a day. Sure, it seems a bit odd that BM would drop a plan that he seemed to strongly believe in, however considering the number of people disagreeing with him right away, it doesn't seem too far fetched that BM would think it was a lost cause to continue to discuss it. Especially considering that there were too many variables involved for it to work. (IMO I think BM only made up that plan to stir up discussion, and didn't seriously believe in it, but as he hasn't stated his intentions for posting that, it's just a personal assumption...although infun also seemed to share that same sentiment so...).

Anyways, besides trying to get people to continue discussing a plan that had been discussed to death (iirc there were like five or so pages of people talking about it) I don't notice too much that would draw any suspicion from me. Scamp's playstyle to me seems like how I would play if I really tried to be active without caring whether or not the stuff I mentioned was really worthy of discussion.

On April 28 2010 12:16 Falcynn wrote:
Bah, I don't find Brownbear suspicious enough to lynch, but I feel better about lynching him than lynching anyone else so... =/

On April 30 2010 21:54 Falcynn wrote:
Projects completed, ready for all of my tests, no obligations for the next few days, time to sit down and finally...oh wtf I'm dead. Well at least I can try to save face by being active in Ace's game =/ Sorry guys.

ZBot

194 Posts

April 20 2010 01:23 GMT

#28

nbtnbt5

+ Show Spoiler +

On April 16 2010 08:28 nbtnbt5 wrote:
I'll sign up if there's still some room left.

On April 18 2010 12:00 nbtnbt5 wrote:
So... how are we suppose to figure anything out on Day 1 when there's basically no evidence....? (in new at this)

On April 19 2010 03:54 nbtnbt5 wrote:

Show nested quote +

What do we have to lose to try the plan out? It's not like we really having anything to base our lynchings on atm, and it seems like a reliable method of making the mafia take action.

On April 19 2010 13:01 nbtnbt5 wrote:

Show nested quote +

afaik no role can PM in this round of mafia (i think it was stated earlier in this thread? or am i just wrong?)

Show nested quote +

(I know he isn't the only/first one to come up with this idea) I think this is actually the best solution out of all of the strategies/ideas mentioned. Sound logic is sound.

On April 22 2010 08:27 nbtnbt5 wrote:
tbh I think Ace is a legit detective...

Show nested quote +

and even if he isn't a DT, but an assassin then wouldn't it benefit us (for now) to keep him alive?

Show nested quote +

also what is this and where can i find it? (i tried searching for it)

On April 24 2010 08:42 nbtnbt5 wrote:

Show nested quote +

Ahh, Thank You. Sorry for being so useless >.<

On April 25 2010 09:36 nbtnbt5 wrote:
Oh lol, 2 millers mistakened for Mafia....

On April 28 2010 04:59 nbtnbt5 wrote:
I find it interesting that nai.protoss chose to analyze a really inactive poster.

On April 28 2010 12:22 nbtnbt5 wrote:

Show nested quote +

I'm pretty easily swayed... (as you can see from my blind support of BM's assassin plan when I really didn't read/understand it)

On April 29 2010 09:00 nbtnbt5 wrote:

Show nested quote +

I wasn't entirely swayed by Rage's post. It's just I was unsure on who to vote for and saw a bandwagon forming, so I just jumped on it. Except the bandwagon died, and now I'm not sure who to vote for. Anyways, I'm just lurking because I don't feel I can contribute anything (bad townie here).

On April 29 2010 09:01 nbtnbt5 wrote:

Show nested quote +

Sorry >.< And sorry, but what was korynn's request?

On April 30 2010 05:24 nbtnbt5 wrote:

Show nested quote +

I looked through your posts once via zbot and a lot of it was just random filler, which seems very mafia-like imo, but apparently you always play that way and you've never been mafia yet so nobody can make a comparison...

ZBot

194 Posts

April 20 2010 01:23 GMT

#29

IntoTheWow

+ Show Spoiler +

On April 16 2010 08:54 IntoTheWow wrote:
Ok, I will be trying this for the first time!

Sign me up!

On April 18 2010 08:16 IntoTheWow wrote:
harro evelyuan

On April 19 2010 05:35 IntoTheWow wrote:

Show nested quote +

Mafia!?!! 8(

Voting an inactive seems the best option as someone else pointed out. Keep the most active playing, makes a more entertaining game.

Since I'm new at Mafia games (at least online), I've got a question.

What if the inactives play decisive roles? It kind of fucks up the balance right? Any previous experience here, where inactives left too little or too mania Mafia?

edit: It still seems best to vote an inactive, big list to choose from.

for now I'll pick RaGe since I can then brag on how I got him killed on IRC, but I'm open to suggestions!

On April 19 2010 05:46 IntoTheWow wrote:

Show nested quote +

I see. That answers most of it.

What about previous experience, did you ever get too little townies because of inactivity?

Show nested quote +

Oops, I even read the rules, but somehow it slipped my mind. Old habits die hard.

On April 19 2010 05:58 IntoTheWow wrote:

Show nested quote +

Let say the game starts, you have 30 townies, 8 mafia and other roles.

If you get 10 inactive people and all of them or 9 or 8 are townies, then you got yourself 20 townies vs 8 mafia (+ others). So the game shifts into the direction of the mafia since they have less things to go on, they have to get more suspicious of everyone and they have less time until they are all killed (unless I'm missing something).

On April 19 2010 06:57 IntoTheWow wrote:
I raise. We lynch you today, then if you were right, we lynch nai.protoss lol

On April 19 2010 07:07 IntoTheWow wrote:
Yeah, the more I read, the more Caller seems to keep his calm, while Ace jumps on him more and more. I don't know what to do now. I originally voted Caller just cause of inactivity, but as he's posting now, I thinkk I'm going to change my vote.

On April 19 2010 11:46 IntoTheWow wrote:
Right now it seems like anyone making a plan is getting lynched. We should definitely learn a lesson from this : p

As Radfield said, we should make a plan right now and set a basis not on who to vote, but how to. Based on what, or with what in mind.

On April 19 2010 12:06 IntoTheWow wrote:
No, on the contrary, I'm just saying everyone is trying to disband any plan brought up.

On the other hand, I don't know if I missed some posts, but some people questioned stuff about your plan and you ignored their posts (AcrossFiveJulys I think was one). Care to explain?

I'm all in for following a strategy, at least early on when we have nothing to work on, but we need to be consensus, not just ideas thrown around.

To be honest I don't think we can use Assassins to our advantage, unless not early on. When they start rolling with role checks and kills maybe we can read them better.

My idea right now is that we should vote an inactive, to keep the game more fun of course, but also because it's safer. You might end up killing an inactive townie, but at the same time you could kill an inactive mafia OR a mafia playing it quiet and disguising himself as an inactive. If you are a townie, you should be definitely be joining the discussion.

The question of course is what inactive to lynch. I picked Caller initially, because he knew the game rules about modkill and everything, but he decided to stay quiet. He's talking now (after getting a good number of votes, don't know what to make on that yet), so I'm going to change my vote probably to follow the strategy I think works best for now.

From the rest of the list of inactives I don't know how many of the others played before since this is my first time at TL Mafia.

Ok, the ball is rolling, anyone has any ideas? previous game information on who on the list should be active but isn't?

On April 19 2010 12:06 IntoTheWow wrote:

Show nested quote +

Reason?

On April 19 2010 12:21 IntoTheWow wrote:
Hard to take you seriously

On April 19 2010 12:26 IntoTheWow wrote:
I agree as I said in my post in the previous page (that maybe got lost there :p)

Anyone has been checking who the inactives are as of now?

On April 19 2010 12:55 IntoTheWow wrote:
Ok I went throught the list of players and searched this thread for posts by them. I no particular order, people who make no posts, or only one liners in it:

KF91 (barely posted, always 1 or 2 lines)

RebirthOfLegend

Jugan (all 1 liners)

Scaramanga (couple of 1 liners, pre-game)

RaGe (only sign up post)

[NyC]HoBbes (2 posts, with 1-3 lines)

Fulgrim (1 post, 2 lines)

JadeFist

krndandaman

nbtnbt5 (only 1 post asking how get info on day 1)

Incognito (just subbed in, said he would make a big post)

love1another (only 1 or 2 posts, and he already voted)

jpak (only 1 post: "see you on day 1" when it was already day 1)

motbob (only 2 posts, 1-2 lines)

Ok, so I think picking one of these guys is the best course. If they have any previous server experienced, or were active in other parts of the forums but missed this, anything that's making them be quiet, etc.

On April 19 2010 13:36 IntoTheWow wrote:
Cute, but this is the longest post you have made in all the thread. Trolling around, having a foul mouth, and writting stuff no one gets here and there doesn't contribute at all. If you are going to bash on my work, then you might as well show me where's it's bad or provide something better yourself.

On April 19 2010 13:55 IntoTheWow wrote:
I considered that option of course. If anything my call for inactives can make those people 'getting the feel' to post more, which is a good thing. No communication = town loses. Not like they are going to get lynched actually, at least that's what you said.

On April 19 2010 14:02 IntoTheWow wrote:
Well, that's why beside listing inactives I also wrote more or less what they posted. I opened the thread on "all" pages and CTRL+F every nickname on the player list.

Yours came out to be mostly 1-2 liners, without actually saying nothing in most of them, hence why you were on the list.

About your attitude, it was not me who pointed it out, but a mod, you can ask them for an apology.

On April 19 2010 14:28 IntoTheWow wrote:

Show nested quote +

On April 19 2010 14:45 IntoTheWow wrote:

Show nested quote +

Well at the point in which I made the list he had lots of 1-2 liners with little substance, save for 1 post. Most of those posts contained jokes/trolling/random crap. It could be very well be interpreted as a way to keep his name in the active people list without saying anything.

I even asked him for reasons for his vote, and he said "my vote is as serious as it gets". Not like I didn't give him a chance.

@ Jugan, I already explained some reasoning besides voting inactives. But since the thread seems to be kind of derailed, I guess I'll give you more, with the consequence of running some luring: accusing inactive might bring the silent mafia out.

I don't know how many of you guys have played real life Mafia, but basically you pressure people into giving information. Since online they can take all the time they want to create a persona and what not, I figured making the list would bring some info up (excuses for not posting, counter-accusations) or at least fuel some discussion on what to do.

Also someone mentioned, not asking for information, so I figured I would search all the info myself. If you disagree with my analysis you are free to open up all the thread like I did and read all the posts user by user to try to get something.

On April 19 2010 14:51 IntoTheWow wrote:
Playing this without PMs sure is harder.

On April 19 2010 14:59 IntoTheWow wrote:
Where is the line drawn for modkilling? voting?

On April 19 2010 15:01 IntoTheWow wrote:
For clarification, I have read the first post 3 or 4 times, and it says modkilling occurs when not voting, but my question was, is there modkilling if someone just votes but doesn't post or just makes 1 post per (mafia) day?

On April 19 2010 15:22 IntoTheWow wrote:

Show nested quote +

Seems like I missed and you too :p

Well my plan more or less worked

I got 2 of the people on my list to answer. And one was you, who I had some suspicious on!

About tailoring: It adds some thought into the information and sparks discussion, maybe I should have written a lot more per each user, but I was kind of in hurry cause I was studying while doing that post.

On April 19 2010 15:41 IntoTheWow wrote:
Want consolidation? LYNCH JUGAN NOW

On April 19 2010 15:41 IntoTheWow wrote:
What*

On April 19 2010 15:51 IntoTheWow wrote:

Show nested quote +

Just an inactive vote placeholder.

On April 20 2010 11:00 IntoTheWow wrote:
How unlucky that a Vigilante got modkilled...

jpak's death kind of does nothing, not bad for a first day lynch thought.

I just got home from a long exam (longer than I thought it would be). I'll start reading more now, thought I skimmed quickly and there's not much in the last 4 pages.

On April 20 2010 14:43 IntoTheWow wrote:
Ace I will take part in your game. I'm bidding 40$ so you roll check me.

Anyone else thinks the lynching went too swiftly when there was no consensus before as who to lynch?

On April 21 2010 05:58 IntoTheWow wrote:

Show nested quote +

How so?

On April 21 2010 06:08 IntoTheWow wrote:
I don't think he's going to be targetted, but oh well.

Night ends in 30 hours give or take, right?

On April 21 2010 06:18 IntoTheWow wrote:
Damn them timezones!

Thanks citi.zen.

On April 21 2010 07:28 IntoTheWow wrote:
Yeah I noticed about AcrossFiveJulys, but he seems like a waste of a lynch/rolecheck to me.
Scaramanga has followed a weird pattern in posting too, but his posts have substance, so I'm not worried about him for now.

People's posting that bother me right now: meeple and Abenson, but it could just be me.

On April 21 2010 12:17 IntoTheWow wrote:
Ace, do you mind explaining me what reasoning you have for your little auction game. And how did you set how much cash every player has?

On April 21 2010 13:51 IntoTheWow wrote:
I'm just curious. Role checks are PM'd to the person who made them, but no one else knows for sure right? Ace could just be making up whatever role check he thinks best fits him. If I'm wrong in my train of thought please tell me.

On April 21 2010 14:06 IntoTheWow wrote:
Ok, time for some wall of text:

About Ace:

He started this little game on biding. The first thing I'm suspicious of is the way he distributed his fake money:

+ Show Spoiler +

# Zona - $100
# CynanMachae - $100
# tree.hugger - $75
# d3_crescentia - $50
# KF91 - $100
# iNfuNdiBuLuM - $75
# RebirthOfLegend - $100
# BloodyC0bbler - $200
# Jugan - $30
# Scaramanga - $0 (get a job)
# Bill Murray - $100
# Fishball - $85
# RaGe - $100
# Foolishness - $no
# Scamp - $100
# Abenson - $90
# Caller - $175
# [NyC]HoBbes - $100
# meeple - $120
# Fulgrim - $70
# JadeFist - $100
# Roffles - $100
# krndandaman - $0
# Falcynn - $40
# nbtnbt5 - $60
# IntoTheWow - $100
# Incognito - $25
# love1another - $66
# AcrossFiveJulys - $50
# nAi.PrOtOsS - $0.50
# DarthThienAn - $60
# Radfield - $100
# TheLardyGooser - $80
# Osmoses - $2
# jpak - $21
# motbob - $100
# madnessman - $75

First, he gave BloodyC0bbler the most bidding power, even thought he has hardly participated so far. Point? Please don't say it's random.

Then he says he gave Caller the most bidding power to make him fall for his trap. Makes sense with meeple riding 120$ and BC as well, but then again there's other suspicious people Foolishness no money? Did you know he was going to die?

You could be an Assassin and then this game would make zero sense at all, since all it's doing is keeping you in the spotlish, either to be lynched or in Mafia eyes to take you down if they feel you are a threat.

If you were a real detective, I don't think this helps too much, you are just instantly rallying people into what you want to do.

You could very well make up whatever answer it fits you best as mafia. If somebody rolechecks anyone, you can make up whatever is the general idea of that person's role. Then again, with one detective down, it's hard to really know what you are up to. If somebody asks for a self-role check (like Jugan did) you can make up whatever you like, Townie would have a high % of nailing it. If you feel your plan might fall that way, you can just kill him during the night before revealing the role check and hence, knowing what the person's role was.

I'm not sure why you are trying to pull this little game, it doesn't help the town at all in my opinion. At the same time I haven't played other Mafia games here, so I don't know if this is your general playstyle, or something you have done before.

I will post more on other people soon, just want to stop some bandwagon that makes no sense. I suspect of Ace as much as I suspect of Caller.

On April 21 2010 14:09 IntoTheWow wrote:
Some stuff I left out.

If Ace wants Caller dead for some reason, he rallies us today, we lynch him, and we know he was bullshitting, ergo, we want to lynch him. The problem is, the moment this is made public, the Mafia roleblocker can kick in, and we are down one Vigilante already.

On April 21 2010 14:30 IntoTheWow wrote:
Meeple has been other one of the guys bother me. I start to follow him more closely after Radfield posted about him, and now Radfield is dead. I already put my eye on him watching the vote list.

From that list I start looking at meeple, Zona, Abenson and RoL.

Zona gave some interesting logical way to play for day 1, plus argued against BC's post pretty fast, which I disagreed with too. Then he posted something interesting about claiming to be detective on day 1, which made me wonder about ace. So I went to look for the rest.

RoL's posts have been pretty weak in terms of logic. Lots of spam and filling.

Same with Abenson, plus he's "inactive". But still managed to rally along with RoL to lynch jpak. And at pretty close times.

Meeple is weird. One moment I feel he's trying too hard to defend himself, kind of like his desperate. Things that made me suspect of meeple were his "anti double lynch" post. But I don't know what else to make of him.

Then there's the inactives who don't post at all, but still make it on the voting. motbob for example, posted very little, still managed to change his votes. Means he has at least followed some of the thread to change his mind, but still decided not to post.

I need to read more t_t, brb.

On April 21 2010 14:35 IntoTheWow wrote:
lol, I'll rally behind everyone else as well. Weird that the roleblocked didn't decide to block you thought, that bothered me as well.

Also, I mentioned in my other post I was going to post more stuff, but I did want to get out that part out of first, to see what people thought of it.

On April 21 2010 14:39 IntoTheWow wrote:
Can we use the double lynch right now? I mean, if you are so sure of him, it does make sense to read on other people based on that (who argued in favor of Caller, who against) to double lynch.

On April 21 2010 15:58 IntoTheWow wrote:
Let's play in the forest while the wolf is not around.

On April 22 2010 11:07 IntoTheWow wrote:
Wow miller, that totally escaped my train of thought like 6 pages ago. I guess I trust Ace a little more for now :p

I was right thought, Caller didn't seem THAT suspicious to me. I mean, he made some mistakes in terms of the list logic and something else, but he still went after the people most of "the town" suspects of.

In the last pages, there was a point of no return for him, and he knew it, so he didn't really bother trying to make a case for himself but rather trying to figure out what was happening with BC + Ace.

Also, I see some people pointing me as Mafia, what? Check posting history people. I see a lot of people just making conjectures based on conjectures from other players.

I would also check on people who were silent during Caller's bandwagoning. As a mafia the best thing to do seems to just ride the "Ace is DT" logic from some pages ago, see Caller turning green (I guess the mafia didn't expect him to be Miller) and then blame it on Ace.

In the case of Ace not being scum, the mafia would have just cleared Caller and Ace and it would be Ace's fault, not the people bandwagoning behind him.

I hope the above is understandable, I just came from uni and my brain is a fried egg.

On April 22 2010 13:22 IntoTheWow wrote:
Depends on where you stand.

On April 22 2010 14:56 IntoTheWow wrote:
OMG IM SOME BLUE LETTERS

On April 23 2010 12:58 IntoTheWow wrote:
So, besides lynching BC, is there any other plan?

I see lots of people saying Vigis should hit, but who? I would look into some of the silent guys :/ The ones posting, we can read, but we can't anything with people who barely post.

I know this was brought up on like day 1, but back then people said that silent players would die later on easily, but I don't see how.

It would suck to kill our townies if the mafia happens to be hiding beside inactives.

Have to do some reading on the previous pages, but I wanted to post since I'm going to be away all day tomorrow due to university.

On April 23 2010 13:51 IntoTheWow wrote:
Nice post Incognito.

I don't agree about nAi.Protoss thought, I used to think he was mafia too (but right now, after 1 day I have lost some ideas why, I need to re-read his history).

I say we take a bet on nai.Protoss + BC / RoL. I know it's kind of risky, but if we hit 1, we get their KP down. With the hit on BC / RoL we get some info on the other.

Assassins should definitely hit inactives as you pointed out, as an assassin I would look into voting histories, some people have been voting with the masses and moving votes (meaning they have been reading the thread) but barely post.

It would suck to have more inactive townies, we already had too many : /

From the list your provided, If i were an assassin I would hit Fishball, JadeFist or motbob. Those three seem to be the ones voting and following the thread at least a little, but staying under the radar, not posting in general.

On April 23 2010 14:04 IntoTheWow wrote:
Also, why did we stop talking about RaGe. If you re-read some posts from him (basically around page 43-45) he tries to look like a victim with the role-check set on him. He also inactive at times...

On April 24 2010 12:43 IntoTheWow wrote:
I have to leave for a while, placing my votes now. I barely skimmed through the last page, but it doesn't look like we have many options. I will post more in a few hours.

On April 24 2010 13:48 IntoTheWow wrote:
If there's a Vigilante left, he might have been roleblocked.

On April 24 2010 14:08 IntoTheWow wrote:

Show nested quote +

I can't wait till the game is over to see what happened on the first days in terms of rolechecks / medic / vigi hits.

I feel I'm going to be dissapointed.

On April 24 2010 16:41 IntoTheWow wrote:
Scaramanga, motbob and Roffles have barely posted while they have been active on TL in other areas. I know everyone can be busy, but I'm curious on what you guys think of the current situation (no jersey shore jokes please).

On April 24 2010 16:44 IntoTheWow wrote:

Show nested quote +

I know you probably saw this, but checking one, probably clears the other, at least for now.

On April 24 2010 17:20 IntoTheWow wrote:
fuck yeah!

On April 24 2010 17:32 IntoTheWow wrote:

Show nested quote +

Caller turned to be miller
Abenson (strangely quiet) townie
meeple - same as others ?
RoL - based on my previous analysis assassin
Scaramanga ?

Italics by me ofc.

On April 24 2010 18:16 IntoTheWow wrote:
We are 1 vote away from lynching BC. Wut.

On April 25 2010 07:25 IntoTheWow wrote:
I bet we are all Millers lol

On April 27 2010 11:03 IntoTheWow wrote:
Ok, it sucks, but lets move on and try to see what to do now.

Things I thought about:

Show nested quote +

I'm not really sure how to check this, but it seems weird that if the Mafia targeted Incognito and didn't kill him, they didn't go for him again. Also what does Incognito gain from telling this to us? Anything? Maybe diverting some medic protection from Ace? Thought if Mafia targetted Ace with all their KP, it seems weird they would need to lure medics away.

Of course Ace saw something like this before

Show nested quote +

If we are to follow Ace's advice (he turned to be a Detective, so he must know something), we should check on the active players.

RaGe is 'somehow' active. d3_crescentia has been posting quite a lot, but from what I remember he was pretty pro-town, will need to re-check that now.

Scaramanga is hiding as inactive which is weird considering we are kind into the game already. Incognito made some long posts which I'm reading right now.

Scamp... I'm kind of lost with him.

My plan as of now: check RaGe, d3, Scamp, Incognito as much as possible and figure a lynch plan asap, I think we will be needing the double lynch pretty soon.

If you are town, please play an active role, staying quiet doesn't help at all.

On April 27 2010 11:21 IntoTheWow wrote:
On second thoughts, I guess the Mafia just expected Ace to be an assassin, but with the last day results they just decided to kill him with all the kill power they had. It makes sense, super confirmed detective could narrow the mafia lynch pretty fast.

I read some more of Scamp:

- Against BM plan, with good points (no PM system, asking for role-claim, etc).
- Agreed with lynching jpak on day 1

Active mafia would probably want to post garbage disguised as real info, just like TheLardyGooser did:

"To me anyway, the discussion at this point seems to be people flaming each other back and forth, largely due to inactivity. Again, this is my first time, but it seems counter intuitive to just flame back and forth when at this point we don't really know anything?

Lets make a plan!"

Or just like iNfuNdiBuLuM:

"Guys remember to check out the ZBOT thread, it will be a very useful tool in the near future. I wonder where Zona is though? Busy programming/making love to the robot? I'm sure he'll turn up."

basically a bunch of captain obvious advice. Never calling names, never pointing a finger, or doubting of anyone beyond inactives.

Double checking with Incognitos post history, I see actual train of thought in his posts. So it seems I rushed my last post too much. Ace just mentioned him a lot (along with the others) before getting killed by all mafia, maybe he mentioned one or more interesting names and they got scared?

From Incognito's history I see RaGe as someone who's dropped of the FoS too fast. He proposed a town wide ban on whatever it was said pre-day 2. That basically would have given the mafia 4x2 kills free.

By the way, let me remind of you of some words said by Incognito on day 2:

Show nested quote +

Reminds me too much of meeple, only posting when accused. Same with Osmoses from what I remember. nAi.Protoss do the same too.

I feel kind of lost with inactives as this is my first time on TL Mafia. Any veterans willing to give a word on playstyles?

On April 28 2010 09:31 IntoTheWow wrote:
Come on, wherever you are hiding. VOTE.

On April 28 2010 16:36 IntoTheWow wrote:
Or he could be THE GODFATHER WITH A FAKE ROLE !!!!!!!

(kidding)

On April 30 2010 15:52 IntoTheWow wrote:

Show nested quote +

Are you afraid of something in special nAi.PrOtOsS?

On April 30 2010 15:56 IntoTheWow wrote:
If it's not obvious enough, Protoss is Mafia.

I'm voting him and meeple as lynch targets.

I think they are solid lynch options from the info we got from the previous weeks, all the constant defending themselves and not posting for anything more than that.

If you are a townie you should do the same (and if you are not going to do the same, post why please).

ZBot

194 Posts

April 20 2010 01:24 GMT

#30

Elemenope

+ Show Spoiler +

On April 16 2010 12:55 Elemenope wrote:
I'm in.

ZBot

194 Posts

April 20 2010 01:24 GMT

#31

Incognito

+ Show Spoiler +

On April 13 2010 12:29 Incognito wrote:

Show nested quote +

*fixed

On April 14 2010 14:08 Incognito wrote:

Show nested quote +

??!

On April 17 2010 03:38 Incognito wrote:
Ooh Mad Hatter. Awesome :D

On April 19 2010 12:00 Incognito wrote:
Didn't expect to play a game right now, been busy over the past month, but was asked to sub in. Anyway, just started reading the thread. But I have thoughts from what I've seen so far. Expect a large post coming up within the next two hours.

On April 19 2010 13:53 Incognito wrote:
Ok. Time for some stuff.

First of all, theres a lot of people moaning that we should just lynch an inactive because we don't have enough information. These people should step it up. There is actually quite a bit of information out here to analyze. So instead of waiting for one of us to come up and hand you the information on a plate, please try to go through and look through posts organized by user.

First off, innocents.

A few people have caught my attention as very likely innocents. These people are:

Zona
BC
d3_crescentia
Caller

All the people on this list have been posting rationally. (Ace would probably disagree with me on this about Caller, but from what I remember from Caller's previous games, he didn't post like this as mafia).

Time to pull out the accusation gun.

Osmoses:

Show nested quote +

This is his first real post. He plays the I'm a newbie card, and proceeds to ask a question that is already being discussed. No contribution here. He also makes preemptive excuses for his posting, emphasizing that he is a newbie, but...you get the picture. Check out TL Mafia V for an example of Tricode pulling the same stunt. From experience, new pro-town players would not try to emphasize their newbiness, as it adds a burden for the town. On the other hand, new mafia players tend to use this to excuse their useless behavior. Panic usually sets in and they try to play the im confused card.

Show nested quote +

More confusion. How ironic. Anyway...Ok...So its tiring trying to find out who is who...but you haven't said anything yet about what you HAVE found out. Oh you also say there's little information to go on? Yeah I'm sure its very tiring to look for information that's not there...in which case you might as well just have given up. Oops! Well, if you're so tired trying to information, surely you must have found at least something. Spit it out. We want to hear it.

Anyway, thats the one person who stuck out in my mind. Everyone should be looking for information instead of lying around and complaining how there is no information. Some information is there. And some of it we have to bring out so we get more information. From experience, mafia games are usually more stagnant when theres no pms. You can't call people out as effectively as you can in pmland, partially because of spam, and partially because people don't feel inclined to respond when theres more than one accusation out there. So for now, I'm going to switch strategies and only try to focus on one suspect at a time. I expect responses.

On April 19 2010 14:11 Incognito wrote:
Hmm. At first, I thought Bill wasn't spammy enough for me to be comfortable. But after thinking about it, he has been a catalyst for some pretty stupid responses. Won't mention names yet until (someone) responds to my accusation, but you guys know who you are. Get productive or we're going to have to bring down the hammer on you.

Updated innocent list:

Zona
BC
d3_crescentia
Caller
Bill Murray

On April 19 2010 14:16 Incognito wrote:
Jugan: When I say I await responses, I don't mean I'm going to sit here and wait till Osmoses replies. People (like you) can and should also comment. Right now, you seem spammy and happy to ignore responding to my post. I invite you to do so so we can keep this discussion actually moving in a coherent direction.

On April 19 2010 14:27 Incognito wrote:

Show nested quote +

Uh...then why didn't you say this previously when I did it in Red Army II? Is it because this time you don't agree with my list? Hmm??

On April 19 2010 14:31 Incognito wrote:

Show nested quote +

Well, then would you mind explaining which post this is so we can generate some discussion and actually point us in an "intelligent" direction?

On April 19 2010 14:49 Incognito wrote:
Sigh* maybe I never will pick up the amount of attention that Ver gets...O wait a second...nobody listens to Ver either! Ver can I join your club?

On April 19 2010 14:53 Incognito wrote:

Show nested quote +

Because its easy to ignore posts. Its harder to ignore pms.

On April 19 2010 15:07 Incognito wrote:
Maybe I should count how long it takes for someone to actually respond to my post without prodding.

On April 20 2010 09:36 Incognito wrote:
Yay! I come back to see 8~ pages of info, and only 3 responses to show for my analysis. Awesome. Keep up the good work ppl...

@ Radfield: Hmm, interesting what you have to say about my analysis. Looking at that accusation of Zona/BC doesn't seem all that suspicious to me though. Actually that was one of the points that I thought was one of the less suspicious posts from Osmoses. If Osmoses truly is a newer player (I don't know if he's played in other games?) then his accusation of Zona/BC can't be taken so suspiciously. As I recall a number of other people were also suspicious of Zona or BC. Not both, but still something to think about. I still think the I'm a newb card is the most suspicious thing about this character. *Anyway, glad to see that he's posted a response.*

About Bill Murray, Stuff suspicious is happening about Bill Murray. But I don't think that necessarily means he's mafia. After all, with all the horrible plans he comes up with, I'm sure the mafia would want to follow it in an attempt to look useful whether BM is mafia or not. Mafia like to follow sucky plans, regardless where they come from. Which I guess is brilliant on BM's part. I'd focus on BM's follower's behaviors to see their motives for now, as BC said, his behavior has brought up some shady responses.

Either way, Rage, I don't think I completely understand your proposal. When I read it I thought you wanted to scrap all the conversation before day 2 as evidence...but that seems really bizzare and ridiculous to me. Did you mean to say something else?

Show nested quote +

Ok wat? Yeah, I know you have a weird penchant for saying random stuff that doesnt make sense...but seriously how can you get town vibes from ppl like RoL? The rest I can understand, but I don't know how ANYONE can get a pro-town read from RoL.

KF91 is going on my innocent list, which now reads:

Zona
BC
d3_crescentia
Caller
Bill Murray
KF91

For those of you looking for a justification, well, lets just say...I don't want to give the mafia any tips. Fairly certain he's pro-town though.

Jugan. What I think of him has changed over the last few pages. Initially he was acting really abrasive with the mods, which put a sour taste in my mouth. Include the "I'm a miller" statements, and it could very well be a coverup for rolechecks. The difference between this one and BM's statements I think though, are the fact that Jugan says he's 100% miller, whereas Bill only says he's probably the miller, as i recall. Does anyone know if Jugan normally does this? Either way, its kind of an awkward statement to make. Originally, Jugan gave me some pretty suspicious vibes, but now I'm beginning to think he's fairly pro-town. He's not going on my list though. I'm definitely keeping an eye on you. For some reason I feel like you're just nit picking through IntoTheWow's posts and unfairly attacking him.

RoL...hmm well I remember him actually using this same excuse before. Which I'm pretty sure was legit. I've never heard of jpak before, so that + being inactive gives him an edge in my view.

*edit nvm Jugan seems to be legit to me. New updated Innocent list:

Zona
BC
d3_crescentia
Caller
Bill Murray
KF91
Jugan

@ Osmoses: Hmm...well, I guess I can interpret that statement as a rhetorical "duh isn't this the obviously best course of action" statement, but I'm not sure how much I'm convinced.

Looking at the rest of your argument, it seems...actually I'm not sure. Your logic seems to be somewhat reasonable for being a newer player. Looking back at my previous playstyle, I can see how you could think that. In response to your question, no, medics can also protect against vig hits and assassin hits.

Anyway, this large post tells me that you are capable of being coherent. Keep it up, I'm going to be expecting more posts like this from you.

Show nested quote +

Wat lol. Ok, I've refrained from quoting and pointing out every single BM post until now. But this is really weird. Nothing outstandingly out of character, but you seem to be going overboard on the accusations my friend. Expect to be watched closely in the next few pages.

Anyway this is taking too long. Posting this now, but more to come later.

On April 20 2010 10:46 Incognito wrote:

Show nested quote +

Um actually yeah, if I read that correctly, I think it is pretty anti-town and warranting suspicion. Wanting to exclude all the pre-day 2 information is hugely ridiculous. If you don't think there's anything here to analyze, then something is wrong with you. This seems like an invitation to cover up information that the mafia doesn't want to be found.

Wah wah wah what? Ace claims DT...then acts completely retardedly. Sad that I have only $25, but oh well. If I were not trying to play to win, I'd open a tax collection agency so I could get some more money, but...Wait! Ace is a genius. (Even more) to come.

A few IMPORTANT notes:

Everyone: Stop filling the thread with garbage. I am amazed that with 10 pages worth of mostly useless posts, I can only see two or three responses to my post, and only a few more reasonable attempts at being helpful. Jugan: Your attempts to appear helpful are abrasive and are probably turning people off. Right now, most of the posts are only helping the mafia. If we're actually come up with some decent course of action, the spam needs to stop NOW.
+ Show Spoiler +

I'm going to refer to the info in this spoiler if anyone decides to accuse me of being a hypocrite when I make my next post. But I have reasons. 1. Being that it works for some people.

On April 20 2010 11:36 Incognito wrote:
Hello, its your friendly neighborhood tax collector here! Don't worry, I'm not trying to suck you dry. I'm just trying to make sure you pay your fair share. Not like you care anyway, since your parents probably pay your taxes for you!

Welcome to Incognito's Tax collection agency!

Rules:
1. If you don't pay your taxes, you will be punished. I'm sure you all would love to keep all your fingers on your wonderfully productive typing hands.
2. If you survive the night, we come back the next day and collect more taxes from you!
3. If you try to pay less than your fair share, we will confiscate all your property and burn you at the stake.

FAQ:
Q. How do I pay my taxes?
A. Make sure you post. Post substantively and frequently. Non-posters will be shot, and all their property will be confiscated and be used for state production.

Q. What kind of taxes are there?
A. The Liquidia Tax Collection Agency collects two taxes, A) The Cost of Living Tax, and B) The Lottery tax.

Q. Can you explain the Cost of Living Tax?
A. Sure thing. It works very simply. You pay tax on all of your earnings. The tax breakdown is like this. There is one marginal tax bracket, which is 100%. That's right! All of your earnings will go to the Liquidia Tax Collection Agency, which will ensure that your earnings are justly and fairly distributed among those who are in need. And by "in need", I mean, those who are actively participating to bring the mafia to justice. The faster we get rid of the insurgence, the quicker we can call off this "state of emergency" and get back to the freedom and liberty we all love (not going to happen).

Q. How the **** do I calculate my earnings?
A. You don't. We calculate them for you. Chances are, you have underestimated your tax burden. So just to be safe, make sure you keep posting actively and usefully.

Q. So is there a lottery tax?
A. Yes, there is a lottery tax. Every time you win Ace's lottery, you must pay 80% of your winnings to the Liquidia treasury fund. This fund will be used to help buy housing for poor people like BloodyC0bbler and will ensure that we all live long and healthy lives. In addition, 20% of your winnings must be paid to the Liquidia Reasearch Fund, which will fund research, enabling us to weed out the mafia quickly and effectively. Finally, the last 10% of your winnings must be paid to the Liquidia "Defense" Fund, which will be used to silence all those who blab on and cover up important information. The total amount of tax due should add up to 100%, if I can do math. Oh well, even if I don't, you can always count on the Liquidian Government to dole out justice and oppose all those who call themselves socialist! Let Freedom Ring!!!

Q. Can I get a receipt to ensure that the Tax Collection Agency has received my payment?
A. Nope! You just have to keep posting in blind faith that we have received your payment. We are not responsible for any failed transactions on your part.

Q. Thank you! I really hope I can be a good comrade and contribute to the greatness of the Liquidian people!
A. That wasn't a question, but ok...

People who haven't payed their taxes:
1. ???
2. ???
3. ???

...

We are sorry, but it seems like we have lost all record of your transactions. Please re-enter your transactions, or send a check to the Liquidia Collection Agency. If you have any questions or grievances, please contact the People's Extermination And Criminal Justice Department for more details.

On April 20 2010 12:27 Incognito wrote:
~~Ok Now That I have gotten Everyone's attention~~Wow You Guys Suck

Lets see. Did anyone read my previous post? Im guessing no. Either way, if you haven't, read it. If you have, read it again. It shouldn't be that hard to get the message. But hopefully, such a large not-serious post got you all woken up so you can come to your senses. Anyway, a few loose ends from when I've last read up to...

Show nested quote +

I noted that a few people have responded. One of which is you. Thank you for your reply.

Show nested quote +

Why because of Ace? Or are you an Assassin?

Show nested quote +

Confirmed from flamewheel that the game does not end when an assassin wins. The remaining assassin is simply removed from the game.

Automatic Archives SWEEET: BIG Thanks to Zona for that.

Suspicious people:

Well, right now there are a lot of suspicious people. But I'm going to switch tactics again. This time, I'm not going to say that you're suspicious. If you're suspicious, you know you are. I'm not going to sit here and make a list of the inactive people who should be looked at. That just gives you the option of ignoring me if you barely made it onto the list. So what we're going to do is this. You know if you're not doing your job. Step it up. If you choose not to do that, we just shoot you. If you're not going to bother stepping up your game now, don't expect us to believe you when you pop up tomorrow and try to defend yourself after we've accused you.. Defending yourself starts now. It starts with being active and posting pro-town.

P.S. In the unlikely event that everyone complies and starts being useful, we still have some good candidates. Some that have been already mentioned. BUT we're going to go through the useless/shady people before we go through that list. Gotta have an incentive for posting, yes?

On April 20 2010 12:43 Incognito wrote:

Show nested quote +

On April 20 2010 12:37 Foolishness wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +

Welcome to Incognito's Tax collection agency!

You just posted some stuff saying to not fill the thread with garbage, and then you post this. Thanks for just telling me your role. But don't worry, the secret's safe with me, nobody pays attention to my posts until well into the 3rd or 4th day.

Which reminds me how funny it is how people keep saying there's no information, and yet in reality there's a LOT going on in the first day. No matter, you keep to your spam posting for now.

Good Job Foolishness. Good job reading the spoiler in the post here. I'm sure it won't be too hard for you to see what I'm trying to do here...

On April 21 2010 09:21 Incognito wrote:

Show nested quote +

What do you think about Osmoses? If I use your rule of thumb...it seems as if Osmoses would be likely innocent. However, I don't feel satisfied with the idea that Osmoses is innocent...

Show nested quote +

Actually meeple is a fairly suspicious character imo. Let me go back through his archived posts and check. Ok, useless posts, followed by attacking BC's plan/idea. Not really pro-town, but not suspicious yet either. Oh noes. Next post he defends BC. Not sure how much we can read into this. But flip floppiness is kinda pro-mafia. Then he ignores BM, cool. Advocates anti day-3 double lynch policy. Ok, fine I guess this is a justifiable position. There are plenty of people who have advocated this position in the past. Regardless though, traditionally usually have a decent amount of information in our hands by day 3. Yet meeple arbitrarily assumes that we won't have enough info by day 3.

Show nested quote +

Really? Well why don't you try to make generate this info then? Seriously info doesn't just pop out of nowhere into your hands. Seems to me like meeple has no intention of attempting to get information. He inherently assumes that not enough will be available. Oops! Also, another thing to note about meeple's posting is that if you look at all of meeple's posts as a whole, he is always reacting. He is always responding to what is going on immediately in front of him. Not going through or trying to analyze other players as a whole. Strike two! Well, before I write him off on that, meeple: start trying to dig up and analyze real information instead of just responding to what is immediately in front of you please..

Continuing, meeple finally decides to respond to the BM incident, complains about inactivity, and jokes around. Casually mentions a bandwagon (not certain if this is an anti-bandwagon stance, but I assume it is?), and then in the next post jumps onto the jpak wagon. Talk about hypocrisy. Next several posts are trash, and then he comes up with a medic list. Cool. It looks useful. Unfortunately, infundibulum already made one of those. He was probably ignored, but oh wells. At least meeple leaves Ace (Detective?) off the list, and adds some people to the list who aren't really worth mentioning. tree.hugger? Foolishness hasn't been useful, and hobbes is a big WUT? Why does meeple also ignore Zona and d3_crescentia from his list? Shady and poorly thought out list at best. Next he defends himself from Caller. And now he will have to defend himself from me. Better come out and explain yourself before I explain your situation for you (well, I already did). (Note to inactives, don't think that I'm going to give you the same treatment as meeple and let you defend yourselves. The difference here is that at least meeple is being active. He gets a few more bonus tolerance points on my list than you guys do).

Oh also I'd like you to come out and explain your choices for your bizzare medic list.

Ah yes JadeFist. As BM (and Radfield) have kindly pointed out, you can't change your vote to the losing or winning bandwagon. Seeing as you change your vote, don't post in the thread, and blatantly break the rules, you're have some serious business against you. Not only that, but you're already a shady character. Don't worry, I won't ask you to come out here and defend yourself. I might listen if someone else tries to come and defend you though.

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On April 21 2010 06:54 Radfield wrote:

On April 20 2010 10:25 ZBot wrote:
AcrossFiveJulys

+ Show Spoiler +

On April 16 2010 15:24 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
Sign me up yo

On April 18 2010 08:06 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:

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On April 18 2010 07:58 madnessman wrote:

On April 18 2010 07:42 d3_crescentia wrote:
2) BC, we can't establish DT circles in this game because there are no PMs allowed, so this strategy seems pretty invalid as well.

I've already brought this up, and BC has replied.

On April 18 2010 06:28 BloodyC0bbler wrote:

On April 18 2010 06:12 madnessman wrote:

On April 18 2010 05:47 BloodyC0bbler wrote:

If you are unable to figure out how a DT can create a town circle by clearing townies in this format I have no inclination to tell you. IT IS INSANELY EASY. Dropping mafia down to a list of x people is alot easier than sacrificing a DT for one red. As hey, I doubt we have 1 dt for every red. Remember, with millers around a checked red is never a confirmed red. Whereas a checked green or blue is more likely town as only 1 gf is alive to infiltrate. Assassins show up as what they are.

I would have to agree with Zona and say that it seemed pretty clear cut to me that nobody besides mafia are granted the ability to PM. It'd be really complicated and confusing. If you're a special blue role (say DT), and you PM a green role, he/she would be unable to respond. If you PM a red role, is the mafia member allowed to PM you back? Mafia are given the ability to PM, but that's assuming it's for use within their own mafia circle to choose their hits. And then mafia would know you have a special blue role.. If you PM a fellow blue role, you may only start your town circle if he/she has also been granted special PMing abilities. So basically, you'd be PMing people based on a hunch that they are blue, and I suppose there's a decent chance that you end up PMing a fellow blue if you're good at behavioral analysis. But then he/she might not also have the special PM ability. And just by PMing somebody, you're giving away information that you have a special role. So yeah... flamewheel creating special PM abilities just seemed very unlikely and too complicated to moderate.

Either way, I think Zona has cleared it up that forming town circles are impossible since town-aligned players don't have PM abilities. So I'm not exactly sure what you're arguing in the quote above o_O.

You do not need PM's to form town circles. Seriously. Only the Dt's can form the circle effectively. I make reference to if they have the ability use it. If not you play without it, its pretty simple. In this game, with 38 players there will be anywhere between 2 and 4 dts most likely, lets for this argument say there are 3. Those 3 are able to form a circle easily. Hell, even greens can form a town circle with a bit of work, but it takes alot more work on their part than dts.

I interpret this to mean that BC thinks a good plan of action would be for DT's to garner a list of confirmed townies/blue roles, and then post them publicly so as to create a 'town circle'. I've personally always thought that 'town circle' implied private communication, but I guess I'm mistaken... The thing about this plan is that it would require the DT to roleclaim later on in the game. Sure, by putting him/herself in the public sphere, medics will know who to protect. But with mafia role blocker and assassins, I don't know whether the town and DT will necessarily be in a better off position because the DT can't have guaranteed protection. I agree with BC in that there are definitely pros to knowing who the DT has checked, so mad hatters/vigils don't hit the wrong people, and DT's don't waste hits checking people who have already been checked, etc etc. But I don't want to sacrifice a DT for the sake of knowing 2-3 confirmed townies. I guess the DT should see first what roles he is able to collect from role checks, and determine whether he thinks his information is worth the risk of RCing (eg. if he has found mafia, he might think it more important to publicly share his list with the town)...

DTs should of course show discretion on when they RC in order to post their list, but they have to do it at some point, otherwise what good are they? One person's non-RC'd opinion probably won't be able to sway the town to lynch mafia/not lynch townies, especially when there are no clues.

On April 18 2010 12:31 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:

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I lost confidence in your plan and stopped reading it when I came across the bolded line. Here is the description of the role of the assasin:

The Assassin is this game's third party candidate! Except for, there may be more than one? To complete his/her win objective, the Assassin is to find and kill all the other Assassins in the game. Assassins will be told in their role PMs how many Assassins there are in the game, but nobody beyond them will know. Assassins show up as Assassins to role checks. To clarify the Assassin's win objectives: The Assassin wins alone, and must complete his mission before the war between the town and the mafia ends. The Assassin counts toward the number of town-aligned people for counting town vs. mafia purposes.

So, the assassin does not win if all the mafia die. I don't completely understand your plan, and it might still be good, but it seems you came up with it off of an incorrect assumption so I'm going to need an explanation for why you thought that and if you still think your plan is valid.

On April 19 2010 17:21 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
I still have my suspicions about BM, but I'm willing to change my vote to lynch an inactive due to good reasons brought up numerous times in the last few pages.

On April 20 2010 10:19 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
FFFFFUUUUU bad luck with krndandaman...

and... I guess it's neutral that an assassin was killed, since they have no incentive to kill mafia and might end up killing townies in finding assassins? I'm really not sure how that's going to affect things.

I've been reading through AcrossFiveJulys posting history, and to me it seems a bit suspect. It's nothing specific in particular, but does anyone else get the same vibe?

Not on the top of my list, but yes. Even after a call for more posts from the non-voters, it seems like people still aren't motivated to post. Maybe I'm just not scary enough?

On April 21 2010 09:39 Incognito wrote:
Ah Osmoses. Glad you're cleaning up your act. Although I don't know if I agree with everything you said in your post, at least it sounds like you're trying. Don't worry though, this congratulatory post does not mean that I'm going to clear you off my list. I'm still keeping an eye on you. After all, mafia also would like to listen to me in order to get off of my suspicion list, no?

KF91: If you really think you can post a satisfactory analysis of EVERY SINGLE PLAYER in the game even on day 3 when we've lost a few, then I don't know what you're thinking. Would probably be impossible even for a guy like Ver or Qatol. Pick the most suspicious people and work from there. You can't waste your time analyzing everyone.

Alternatively...we can use this system. It'll be good for getting a quick and dirty analysis of everyone, and it will give everyone something specific to do. Not only that, but it will all help you improve your mafia hunting skills. So I propose that (after the day post goes up): we all analyze the player below us on the player signup list. Last person (madnessman) analyzes the first person, obviously. Ignore dead people (obviously). We should get out the analyses quickly, then we can go from there.

Tips for analyzing players (in this case, the player under you):

Use Zona's archive bot. Run through all the posts made by the player you're analyzing, and note any suspicious behavior. I have done my example of meeple, so you can check what I did there. Looking back I guess I should have consolidated and made my post more organized, but I was kinda doing a rough on-the-fly analysis there. When you're reading, try to create a persona around the player's attitude and goals. Is the player abrasive? Are they actually working to help the town or are they whining that there is no information? Do they have an agenda in mind? What do you think it is? Is the player content with sitting back and watching the action? You can use these questions to help you determine where people are going and what alignment they are.

Anyway, in the hopes of not burdening everyone with a long laundry-list of tips, I'll just leave it at that for now. Don't worry if you think we'll rip apart your analysis. Don't be afraid about being wrong. Naturally, people will be wrong sometimes, you can't always be right. Gotta start somewhere, ya?

On April 21 2010 10:00 Incognito wrote:
Whodead?

On April 21 2010 10:12 Incognito wrote:
*gasp* Wow...

I was kinda wishing to die...especially since I won't be around tomorrow...I guess I posted too late.

Oh well, I guess that's all the more reason we need to step it up since we've lost some of our glitter and glitz ya? Back to the grind...

(Which means, you can now start posting your analysis of the next guy underneath you who isn't dead).

On April 21 2010 10:25 Incognito wrote:
Lol I guess I get an easy person to analyze (actually not that easy since there's not much to say, but w/e):

Love1Another:

Has 3 in-game posts. Of which only 2 are really relevant. 1st relevant post: is an I'm confused post. But it doesn't say much else. No thought of trying to contribute, so that doesn't raise a big red flag. Although he is quick to say he isn't an assassin...probably means nothing, I'm guessing. 2nd relevant post: Wanting to be Jugan's friend. Cute. Not enough information to go on at this point, but it could be an "I like chaos and alienation! Keep doing it, its' helping our cause!" kind of post, but idk. Keeping with my promise to not let you guys just pop up at a convenient time just to defend yourself, I'll just keep this one in the back of my mind until we hear more from other people.

Next!

On April 21 2010 11:53 Incognito wrote:

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This is just a "These people are widely respected so they must be good at blue sniping" statement.

Zona - I've never seen him be red, so I don't know if he's good at blue sniping. Is awful quiet though...

Ace...don't remember, but from what I can recall he sticks more to the logic/bashing ppl in the thread side rather than the blue sniping side.

BC - the only game I remember him as mafia in was the Smurf game, in which I guess he did a good job at sniping key players (qatol and L). Of the 3 kills, one was a DT but the other two were green. 2 of them were good players though, and in a game where good players are hidden like blue roles, I guess that can be considered solid "blue" sniping skill. The tells for blues and high profile players trying to hide would be similar, yes?

Caller - Mafia XVIII. Actually you guys hit a fair amount of blues (and reds). Don't know how much of that was your doing and how much of it was Foolishness(?) but it fits. Other games with you as mafia...Mafia VIII. Of your six kills, 5 were blue. Nice. But 2 of them were BGs, so that was probably luck. 3/6 is not too shabby. But how much of that was Showtime! or MBH's doing? Either way both of your plays as mafia resulted in a fair number of blue/red hits. That's pretty good.

Incognito - I was mafia once, in your (Caller's) first game. Ver basically dictated the hit list (along with input from Showtime!?) so no, I have no experience with blue sniping.

Yeah it is pretty alarming that three blues died. But looking at who the players are and what they posted kinda makes it fit. As I recall, CynanMachae posted a large post accusing TheLardyGooser, so it's understandable why the mafia would want to silence him. Foolishness: given his relatively high-profile status and the fact that he is less likely to be medic protted than others, for example, Ace/BC/me, I guess its not unreasonable that the mafia would hit him. Foolishness also attacks TheLardyGooser quite strongly. Radfield was posting pretty logically and actively, and didn't just post one-liners. Although didn't seem to be actively pursuing an agenda. Meh, I don't know about this one. Best fits would probably be blue sniping or just the mafia wanting to get rid of a relatively active poster. [NyC]HoBbes is the only one I'm clueless about. Looking back through his posts I still don't see any obvious reason why they would've wanted him dead. I can only see blue sniping as a decent fit for this kill. Or just randomness. But the other kills don't seem random though. However, given the general fact that blues try to keep quiet, maybe they just made a wild guess and chose hobbes? Although there are plenty of other quiet useless posters out there...

Out of this list, BC would be the one to look at if anyone at all. Given his suspicious (well, non-existent, really) behavior, it seems like he fits best. But for the moment we should probably focus on other issues at hand. But BC better start posting or else the lynch hammer is going to have to come down.

On April 21 2010 12:13 Incognito wrote:

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Great I'll look forward to it.

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So you are in the lets-not-kill-more-innocent-townies-with-shaky-Double-Lynches camp, but you're also in the lets-lynch-people-just-because-i-don't-want-a-no-lynch camp. Cool beans.

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On April 21 2010 12:16 Incognito wrote:

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Lolwut since when does BM step up to the plate? And since when does tree.hugger trump ppl like Zona for the "good and helpful players" list?

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On April 21 2010 11:11 meeple wrote:

On April 21 2010 09:21 Incognito wrote:
Actually meeple is a fairly suspicious character imo. Let me go back through his archived posts and check. Ok, useless posts, followed by attacking BC's plan/idea. Not really pro-town, but not suspicious yet either. Oh noes. Next post he defends BC. Not sure how much we can read into this. But flip floppiness is kinda pro-mafia. Then he ignores BM, cool. Advocates anti day-3 double lynch policy. Ok, fine I guess this is a justifiable position. There are plenty of people who have advocated this position in the past. Regardless though, traditionally usually have a decent amount of information in our hands by day 3. Yet meeple arbitrarily assumes that we won't have enough info by day 3.

On April 18 2010 06:50 meeple wrote:
I don't agree that Day 3 is a good time to use the lynch... we still won't have tons of info by then.

Continuing, meeple finally decides to respond to the BM incident, complains about inactivity, and jokes around. Casually mentions a bandwagon (not certain if this is an anti-bandwagon stance, but I assume it is?), and then in the next post jumps onto the jpak wagon. Talk about hypocrisy.

Next several posts are trash, and then he comes up with a medic list. Cool. It looks useful. Unfortunately, infundibulum already made one of those. He was probably ignored, but oh wells. At least meeple leaves Ace (Detective?) off the list, and adds some people to the list who aren't really worth mentioning. tree.hugger? Foolishness hasn't been useful, and hobbes is a big WUT? Why does meeple also ignore Zona and d3_crescentia from his list? Shady and poorly thought out list at best. Next he defends himself from Caller. And now he will have to defend himself from me. Better come out and explain yourself before I explain your situation for you (well, I already did). (Note to inactives, don't think that I'm going to give you the same treatment as meeple and let you defend yourselves. The difference here is that at least meeple is being active. He gets a few more bonus tolerance points on my list than you guys do).

Oh also I'd like you to come out and explain your choices for your bizzare medic list.

This post feels pretty squirmy to me

Um what makes you think this? I thought it was at least halfway decent...

On April 21 2010 12:17 Incognito wrote:

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Ooh look! Another noob card! We've got a lot of those floating around...wonder how many of them will lead us in the right direction...Where are you peoples? Can we get this train going already?

On April 21 2010 12:26 Incognito wrote:

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On April 21 2010 12:21 Bill Murray wrote:

On April 21 2010 12:16 Incognito wrote:

On April 21 2010 11:16 Bill Murray wrote:
This just means we have to work harder to win, but i'm worried that there's no town circle forming. veterans like ace and bc need to get off their asses and actually do something instead of appearing bored and letting the town go to shit.

since you guys aren't stepping it up, i'll have to. since i know i'm green, we can create a town circle around me. I'm not asking you to roleclaim to me, but if you are a member of this town, and want to contribute and win then u need to listen to me.

We need to get rid of people who aren't stepping up to the plate. these players are supposed to be good and helpful players but instead they are not helping or are just posting garbage:
Tree.Hugger, Ace, BC, Infundibulum,

Lolwut since when does BM step up to the plate? And since when does tree.hugger trump ppl like Zona for the "good and helpful players" list?

On April 21 2010 11:11 meeple wrote:

On April 18 2010 06:50 meeple wrote:
I don't agree that Day 3 is a good time to use the lynch... we still won't have tons of info by then.

This post feels pretty squirmy to me

Um what makes you think this? I thought it was at least halfway decent...

zona isnt doing a fucking thing to help us

Well uh...and you think Ace and BC ARE going to do something to help us?

On April 21 2010 13:30 Incognito wrote:
Since I am going to be absent for the next 1.5 days, I thought I'd just post my thoughts so hopefully you could get a general idea of where to look. Please don't ignore analyzing the guy underneath you though!

(Semi-)active suspicious people:

tree.hugger is against BM's assassin plan but wants to discuss it. Is this because he wants the town to go on the wrong track/get distracted from their real objectives? Tries to derail the thread by continuing to talk about assassins...is he an assassin?? Or just a mafioso using that as an excuse to find something to talk about? Posts other useless information, and lately posts that he agrees with foolishness and me that there is enough information to work off of. He also complains about the vets not helping, but shows no intention of actually helping.
RebirthOfLegenD: Promises reds and results. Fine, its only day 2. But he posted recently and all it was was a *cry* blues have died post. Not the greatest activity there. Planning to do something anytime soon? Responds to assassin discussion. I'm glad BC pointed out to us about how BM's plan produced results. Hopefully I won't over do it on this factor, but if we add up all the factors, it might give us something. Other than that, RoL has been pretty useless.
RaGe: Tries to tell us to random lynch on day 1. I get it now, its not that terrible but not that great. Overall, just tells us nothing in general. He then proceeds to get attacked and has produced nothing useful since. Only defense of himself. Which isn't really pro-town.
Scamp: Talks about assassins. Pops in to say useless stuff. Only one semi-decent post, which just parrots the attacks on TheLardyGooser. Debating whether I should have put him here or lower on the list, but I don't see any redeeming value here yet.
Abenson: Talks about assassins. And that's pretty much it. This should probably be just counted as inactivity, but whatever.
Caller: Rolechecked red, and has been making some pretty loose intuition-based attacks on ppl. No strong solid evidence here, so nothing of redeeming value. I guess the rolecheck does it for me. The only reason I could see for Ace lying like that was if he was mafia. I don't think he's that "L"ish to sabotage his own team, so he's probably telling the truth if town. Since its not exactly the best time to sac a mafia member (a mafia death would mean a KP drop), its highly unlikely that Ace really is mafia in this situation imo.
Falcynn: Useless chatterbox.
nai.Protoss: Posts when accused. Nothing more. Not too high profile but someone to look out for.
madnessman: just barely makes the cut...on the suspicious side. Not too useful, but then again, not too useless either.

Just purely inactive - and therefore should be prodded and abused so they can be useful:
Scaramanga
Fishball
Koryone: New player, but claims newb. Something to look out for if it gets excessive, otherwise this name is just here to make sure he doesn't get overlooked.
JadeFist: Rule breaking + auto-changing vote. Otherwise inactive
Roffles: He says some stuff, but nothing outstandingly pro-town or anti-town.
nbtnbt5
love1another
AcrossFiveJulys
motbob

Suspicious people that have some redeeming quality:
infundibulum: Cool. He defends Caller and Caller if appears red (if Ace isn't BSing us), this is a good sign. Although in response to KF, he actually has posted a few suspects (on the DT list if I recall?). Other than that, medic list + DT list shows at least some commitment to the town. Although it isn't all too pro-town.
BloodyC0bbler: Who is being useless. And is supposedly a good blue sniper? I'm not all too convinced though. He better show up to post or else. Not high on the list, but still someone to look out for. His first post seemed pretty pro-town, but other than that nothing else really pro-town.
Bill Murray: Bill is weird. From his assassin "plan" though, I'd probably look at his followers more closely than him. He's being kinda funky, like always, but he's been accusing more than usual. Usually he posts more about himself being green, no? Or maybe that was just a result of L attacking him like a relentless attack dog. Someone to look out for, but not that high on the list. Might warrant an RC though. Seriously its kinda hard to tell what he is purely from behavior (although he's never been red, right?)
meeple: I'm on the fence with him right now. If you want more info you can look at my archived accusation post about him.
Osmoses: Pretty much same as meeple

***
Note* by the end, I kinda got lazy. Like I said, I am gone tomorrow, so I need to get to bed early tonight and ran out of time. Either way, good luck in my absence. I know this list is long. If you can get people to talk, it shouldn't be too hard to narrow the list down to a manageable size. But then again, since Caller's checked red, I probably wasted my time here. Just use this as a guideline so you can actually try to do stuff and not just sit there. Just because Ace has found us a mafia doesn't mean we get to rest for a day. Keep up the posting, and cya on thursday!

On April 23 2010 13:27 Incognito wrote:

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On April 21 2010 13:37 nAi.PrOtOsS wrote:

I would just like to point out that since Caller is now proven to be mafia and he tried to take me out near the start when he was under risk of being lynched, I am clearly not mafia. Although I am also proving your point that I only post to defend myself and I am semi-inactive. But until I find time to sift through all these posts and come up with a good arguement for why somone is mafia I don't have anything to post.

Ouch. Popping out of nowhere and defending yourself on the basis that Caller is proven mafia - nice job. Sadly, Caller is not mafia. Avoiding analysis, and just popping out randomly to defend yourself. Although would you be that stupid to use this (Caller is mafia therefore I'm not) claim to defend yourself if you were mafia? O wait thats a WIFOM. You're super suspicious, especially given your posting record and uselessness. Luckily for you we have better suspects to go after.

***

Cool. Underneath my large list of suspicious ppl post, I get a bunch of ppl arguing about the possibilities for what Ace's role actually is. Did you not read my post? Or just decide to ignore it??

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Lolwut seriously? You've got to be kidding. Read the thread and contribute plox.

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Some controversy over what Ace's result means about BC/the mafia...

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Lets reexamine. Mafia knows Caller wasn't mafia. From Mafia's point of view, a) Ace is DT AND Caller is Miller, or b) Ace is just BSing. If a), then mafia would have the incentive to try to lynch Ace, since they know that after Ace is proven to be a DT, Caller will also be lynched. Town therefore wastes 2 KP for nothing. If Ace was BSing, then the mafia would rather have Caller die first. If the mafia were unsure of whether or not Ace was telling the truth, then it would be safer to lynch Ace first, as lynching Caller could have disasterous consequences if he were the miller. However, as in my analysis, I stated my reasoning explaining why I thought Ace was telling the truth. If any mafia were reading my analysis, then it makes sense that they would want to lynch Ace. Ppl who were railing against Ace: BC. So yes, it makes sense from BC's point of view to try to get Ace killed if mafia. Combined with his blue sniping (although he denies it, I'm still pretty sure he is capable of doing this) and sudden appearance, a case could be made for BC's redness. However, I'm really not sure a 38 person game would have 3 DTs...which throws me into confusion. Lets see if Mr. Blue Sniper can shed some light on this and net us some more info on the blues (although flamewheel has had some weird balancing in last game).

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Actually I would have thought otherwise, as per the above ^^

***

Anyway, in my absence, I guess its clear that you all just are apathetic people. Seriously, if you can't play to win or don't care to analyze, then please don't play the game. It makes it frustrating for people like me who actually put effort into the game. I know how it can be a daunting task to read through pages of info. But the game isn't really fun unless you do it. This game doesn't provide instant gratification, something which, sadly, causes many people to get quickly disinterested in the game. Anyway, with that said, we have to look at the numbers.

7 mafia v. 20 townies. Remember that we have at least 2 assassins left (or else an assassin would have won.) Therefore, we really only have 18 (or less) actual townspeople. 4 die tonight unless medics/vets do their jobs. What does this mean? We're down to 16/7 tomorrow night, given no lucky vig/assassin hits. Given we really don't have any solid leads, we only know that one of RoL/BC is most likely mafia, if not both (highly unlikely though). If we try to lynch both of them, we will only get one mafia. If we try to lynch one of BC/RoL and lynch someone else, we don't have as good of chance of hitting at least one red. 15/6 for the night, with 12/6 the next day. Unless we get lucky, we're pretty much doomed given the inactivity and our lack of suspects (well, Caller has suspects, but I'm not sure about all of them. Meeple I can see. Motbob is a crapshoot, as we have no info on him. ITW, I thought he was pretty pro-town, but I better check again.).

Therefore, in order to win, I propose that we need to take a gamble. We don't have very many options for playing conservatively here. We need to thin out the mafia ranks soon. And for that, we need the help of the assassins. Assassins, why should you help us? Because its in your interests to do so. If the game ends quickly with a lopsided mafia win, you guys don't get a chance to win. Therefore, I propose that we work together to advance both of our goals. You guys have KP. You also want to kill assassins. At this point, the assassins are probably hiding in relative silence. (Or you could read my posts to see one person I think is probably an assassin). Most of the mafia are probably also hiding in relative silence, given the chaos in the thread for the last several pages. Which gives us a great opportunity to scum/assassin hunt. Assassins want to hide, as do the mafia. Given the (relative) inactivity in the thread, (its the same talking heads babbling over and over), assassins can further their interest as well as ours by shooting someone who is quiet. What does this do? 1. It promotes activity. If you are quiet, you will get shot. 2. It gives the assassins the chance to hit other likely assassins. 3. It gives the assassins more time to win the game if they happen to hit a red. 4. We also get more breathing room if reds are hit.

Who are good candidates to hit? I would just use my inactive list.

Scaramanga
Fishball
Koryone
JadeFist
Roffles
nbtnbt5
~~love1another~~
AcrossFiveJulys
motbob

Objections? Questions?

Also of course if you are a vig, please hit BC so we can find out about RoL. I'd hate to have to wait another day cycle to find this information.

On April 23 2010 14:23 Incognito wrote:

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Oh sorry. I copied and pasted lists from one of my previous posts, and changed Fulgrim to Korynne. I didn't really run through to see if anyone got active. Just used the old lists. Falcynn was in another list, aka the more suspicious ppl list. So yeah, assassins are free to kill Falcynn. Actually my top 3 picks would be motbob, Falcynn, and JadeFist right now.

On April 23 2010 14:29 Incognito wrote:

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I wish we had 3 vigs...but I highly doubt we have 1 hatter (2 KP) AND 3 vigs (3 KP). Just hit BC, we need that hit more badly in order to confirm RoL (Unless RoL is just being an asshat).

On April 23 2010 14:33 Incognito wrote:

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If you're accused of being a useless chatterbox and then just disappear, it looks more suspicious. Congradulations, it seems as if you've been active lurking! Someone plz kill.

On April 23 2010 14:37 Incognito wrote:

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Yeah, could you do me a favor and kill him?

On April 23 2010 14:50 Incognito wrote:

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So you ARE a vig/Assassin. Thanks for letting us know! I knew I could trust you.

On April 23 2010 14:51 Incognito wrote:

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On April 23 2010 15:01 Incognito wrote:

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Oh hello there. Let me just quote myself (and L by proxy?):

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On April 23 2010 15:07 Incognito wrote:

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Actually this is a way of looking bad. What not to do:

"Hmm I'm confused about who to lynch. There doesn't seem to be a lot of information out there, but (Player X) is good at finding mafia. I think i'll be voting for (X's choice for candidate) today."

On April 23 2010 15:08 Incognito wrote:

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Sadly, I'm not. Thats why I'm asking you to do it. Don't let me down!

On April 23 2010 15:22 Incognito wrote:

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On April 23 2010 15:08 meeple wrote:

On April 23 2010 14:51 Incognito wrote:

On April 23 2010 14:40 meeple wrote:

Eh... your thought on a subject matter is always something to consider, knowing how you're making decisions if you're town is invaluable for our success, regardless of how useless you think it is.

On April 23 2010 14:33 Incognito wrote:

On April 23 2010 14:31 Falcynn wrote:

If you're accused of being a useless chatterbox and then just disappear, it looks more suspicious. Congradulations, it seems as if you've been active lurking! Someone plz kill.

Continually calling for more deaths is lame...

Oh wait nvm. You didn't analyze Rage. You just said you didn't suspect him as much anymore (why?).

"I will make an effort to poke the bear and get some information." - Ok. Maybe I'm being a little too harsh. But from someone who posts so much, I expected more from you. Besides your one post with 2 pieces of analysis, your posting is relatively useless. I get the nbtnbt5 analysis. How long did that take? If you find nothing conclusive, you don't go try to find some other information that is? Yes, Abenson may be dead now, but it doesn't change the fact that your analysis was not very insightful. Where did you post vig instructions?

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Actually if you noticed earlier, it worked for Osmoses. And coming to think about it...he's disappeared lately. So Osmoses, if you are reading this message, you can feel free to post something. You admit that you only pop up to defend yourself. So no, I'm not really overanalyzing you. You're just resigning yourself to my accusation, and don't feel the need to change your behavior. That is quite commendable, good sir (and fellow townie).

On April 23 2010 15:27 Incognito wrote:

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Hold on I totally misread that. No, I have not already convinced myself that you are mafia. But you sure do a good job at making us want to think that. A little less self-victimization would help your case.

On April 23 2010 15:30 Incognito wrote:

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If you do that then we lose one critical element of information - that is, vote list analysis.

On April 23 2010 15:33 Incognito wrote:
Oh also there are other ways to justify your votes than "I am voting for (player X) because (player Y) is voting for him". So no, I'm not advocating that everyone goes and not votes. Just have a real reason for your voting. Like: "I am voting for (player X) because (elements A, B, and C) make him suspicious".

On April 23 2010 15:52 Incognito wrote:
Oh I didn't see that. Well you could have pointed to that earlier!

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On April 23 2010 13:21 meeple wrote:

We have at most one vigilante, maybe none. This person should use his kill to kill BC. Which will be able to tell us something about RoL, giving us information to use for our double lynch.

Why shouldn't you randomly kill someone based on your own research? We already have narrowed down a pool, BC and RoL. Unless you want to waste both lynches on these two characters, one of these people must die now. If you were to do your own research on who to kill, you have all the information from the past 2 days. Then, during our Double lynch, we are forced to kill BC/RoL to get us our 1 mafia.

On the other hand, if you kill BC right now, we know whether or not to trust RoL, giving us the flexibility of not killing RoL in the event that BC is mafia or miller. Furthermore, our second lynch will be more accurate since we have the information from the past 2 days PLUS all the information from the night's killings. By making the no-brainer kill now, we can wait until we receive more information for the more accurate lynch.

Medics. Don't follow one person to protect. Follow two. Flip a coin between protecting Ace and me (unless anyone else has a better suggestion on another useful person). That way, the mafia can't really be sure that they can successfully kill either Ace or me. This makes them scared to hit either of us, effectively doubling your protection powers (unless the mafia is really ballsy).

So sorry, meeple, I retract my statement that you're being useless. This post was actually useful. I disagree with some parts of it, but it shows effort. Bravo.

On April 23 2010 15:54 Incognito wrote:
Oh also unlike vigs I think there is a good chance of us still having 2 medics left. 2 medics flipping a coin between protecting two people would be super effective. Almost completely discourages them from hitting either of the two people.

On April 23 2010 16:01 Incognito wrote:

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No, its better if we have a resigned dead townie than a brainless townie. Allowing brainless townies encourages mafia to pretend to be brainless townies. Its practically impossible to tell a brainless townie from a brainless townie-looking mafia. And hidden brainless mafia are worse than one dead townie.

I did say that we have better suspects than him, didn't I?

Its not that hard to read the analysis (he has been doing that apparently) and pick which analysis you agree with. And when you state your reasons why you are voting for someone, don't hide behind the cover of following someone or not having enough information. Own your analysis (even if its stolen from someone else). Don't cushion yourself with fluff words or distance yourself from the analysis. Embrace the analysis, and pretend its yours and you'll be fine.

Yes, people like Scaramanga also have to step up. I was just using nai.Protoss as an example. There are plenty of others out there who need to step up.

I do not endorse random following.

On April 23 2010 16:11 Incognito wrote:

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On April 23 2010 16:05 meeple wrote:

On April 23 2010 15:52 Incognito wrote:
Oh I didn't see that. Well you could have pointed to that earlier!

On April 23 2010 13:21 meeple wrote:

Ace and Incog imo are ok people to protect for now... although flipping a coin won't really avoid the potential for double protecting whatever it randomizes it.

I agree about the BC vigi kill... but I want to encourage people, especially those in powerful roles like medics/vigi's to be questioning things in the thread and not following so blindly. If you've made a solid logical case for BC's death (which you have) then there's no reason for a vigi to not follow it.

Now, if it turns out the RoL really is trustable... then it kinda thins out the protection again... but then again if we have two medics, we should be able to cover 3 people pretty nicely and in this case we should use the randomization method suggested by incog to remove personal bias and increase overall protection of the three.

Actually we want the possibility of both medics protecting the same people. That way the mafia are forced to use 3 entire hits to make sure one of us are dead.

On April 23 2010 16:15 Incognito wrote:

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Of course one dead townie is bad for our cause and advances our loss. I am not advocating that said townie should just die. I am advocating that said townie defend his viewpoint like I stated a couple posts back.

One alive blindly following mafioso is infinite steps closer to losing. Because we'll just assume he's a blindly following townie and never lynch him. Yes, here I am contrasting your proposal to what will actually happen. But there is a third option. Which I have already explained.

On April 23 2010 16:48 Incognito wrote:
Lol for some reason I didn't read the page or two (explaining why I missed meeple's post) before my long post and now I notice that other people were already talking about the same things...

Oh well, I guess I am useless. Maybe I should just stop putting so much effort into this game. Hopefully your DTs can win the game for you

.

Gnight y'all.

On April 24 2010 16:30 Incognito wrote:
Hi I'm back, just need to check up on the last few pages in the thread, but I'm just posting this right now to announce that I have taken a hit.

On April 24 2010 18:07 Incognito wrote:
Fishball: Its day 3, you're a troll, and you gotta come out now. Thanks. Oh also one interesting thing to note is that you comment saying the zbot archive is awesome. Why is this so? Either you just threw this out there to fake activity, or you're actually using it to do analysis. Take your pick.

Bill Murray: At first he made me think he was just playing usual and just be ignored. But his posting has dramatically declined. Busy? Thinks he's in the clear? Not his spammy usual self anymore. But then again, its really hard to read him. If he's mafia, he may be receiving orders from a strong mafia player (BC). Lets see if his posting deteriorates even more after BC is offed. He's been acting inconsistently though. No. 1 RC suspect imo.

Scaramanga: You've been useless enough, been called out enough times on it, and haven't responded. Moreover, you seem to be active elsewhere but not here. You've been around long enough to know what is expected.

motbob: motbob is inconsistent. Besides his early useless posts, he posts this:

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But only two posts later, he says:

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So the town is on the right track, but then only two posts later we're doomed? What happened? I'm sure the night kills didn't change your mind that much...your posting is inconsistent, and you just seem to be stirring the pot and trying to avoid discussion when possible. Then, you pop up and say we're doomed, likely because you want to out all the power roles. Given that I still think there's at least 2 medics in there, that would help you a lot if you were mafia, right? Trying to push the boat in the direction you want? Seems like it to me.

Falcynn: I thought you could've been mafiassassin given that you were talking a lot about assassins in your early posts. But now that all the assassins are gone, I guess that clears a few things up. Other than that, advocates a randomlynch, posts more useless information, then responds to me. Then your posts really start to slide. Defending your terrible play, admitting to active lurking, and even more defense of your terrible play. I wish townies would just stop defending their terrible play. Either way, I don't think you're a townie, so whatever. In response to your post, I had an inkling AFJ was an assassin, and felt bored last night. Sadly, he didn't bother following through and choosing to kill you. If you tried to kill him to stop his hit from coming through, it wouldn't work, all night actions happen simultaneously. So no, I won't use that excuse, but then again, I don't really need to.

d3: hmm the Caller-is-innocent vibes may have been coming from reading my list of innocents. Blindly following me? Or having a subconscious bias of Caller's innocence because of my statement? Other than that, he seems to be posting like normal from past games. I like my other suspects better. Although d3 hasn't been extremely helpful. Hmm...I seem to remember that he is usually more technical and planning-oriented. Didn't see too much of that in his current posts.

Scamp: probably town. I like RoL(?)'s and meeple's latest analysis of him. yeah, he voted jpak, but I don't know how much weight that holds for me. His mention of TheLardyGooser doesn't seem a mafia oriented action. And even though he's been around for a while, I don't think he would be one to accuse his own mafia member off the bat. Although given the weird activities going around lately, I wouldn't be surprised if the mafia had a solid player around trying to coach the weaker ones. (Would make sense since BC has been so inactive all game).

Anyway, paper due on monday morning, so I will probably be less active until then. Looks like not much is happening right now though.

On April 27 2010 08:48 Incognito wrote:
Wow English papers are brutal. Anyway,

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Oh hmm I looked at the dates, but for some reason I thought the modkills happened before then. My bad.

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Yeah, it is a pity that all of them turned out to be useless. 2 players who ended up acting scummy (and miller lol) and an inactive Zona. And now BrownBear is acting somewhat scummy himself. I guess its difficult to make early judgments based on a quick rundown of some posts. And BM's disappearance in favor of running his own game make me think he's scum too.

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On April 24 2010 23:06 RaGe wrote:
If you consider my hypothesis of Mafia not believing Ace was a DT after his Caller rolecheck, then these are very suspicious posts:

I will post more on other people soon, just want to stop some bandwagon that makes no sense. I suspect of Ace as much as I suspect of Caller.

That last one especially. Not only is he putting suspicion on Caller (which makes sense for mafia if my hypothesis is true), but he's putting suspicion on RoL now that the BC vs RoL thing started.

Although I see the reasoning behind why mafia would think Ace was lying, I still think it somewhat strange that the mafia really didn't take Ace's claim seriously. I mean, out of all players, Ace is one that people would expect to be more rational. Claiming DT out of the blue isn't something I would discount right away, especially coming from someone like Ace. If your hypothesis is correct, then maybe the mafia are all made up of newer players who don't know Ace's style. Although I would think that inexperienced players would panic and want to off Ace right away after Caller flipped red, which didn't happen. Something doesn't line up here. I know from instinct I thought IntoTheWow was town. I'll go back and check his posts though.

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BrownBear: especially combined with his latest qualification of his argument against Fishball, makes me want to stare at him more. Actually, from his first post he does seem to be trying to sow seeds of, "Prepare to kill ace when Caller flips innocent" logic. BrownBear's doubt of RoL seems mafia-ish if BC were mafia. However, BC as we know, flipped town. Although I guess it would be logical for the maifa to doubt RoL anyway knowing that BC would flip town and that they could also get RoL lynched the next day as per the Caller/Ace argument presented by Rage. Scummy looking at this point though, but I'll take a few more minutes to look more into detail on this later.

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Also this is some terrible analysis. Mafia would have the incentive to say tree.hugger is an assassin too, no?

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99% sure theres no hatters left. Maybe a vig, but other than that, I wouldn't look to be reliant on having any other extraneous KP.

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Cool. I wasn't alerted to the fact that you have a super special awesome list. Care to share with us?

Anyways I'm running out of fuel for this game. Are you?

On April 27 2010 14:00 Incognito wrote:
The person 16 down from me:

Falcynn. I already did an analysis of him. I don't think anything's changed since then either. Quoted for reference:

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Ah yes, IntoTheWow, thank you for reminding me of my statement:

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Either way, we probably can't afford to policy lynch. But at the same time, I doubt any of the people who haven't posted yet are going to give a decent defense anyway. I'm going to make this my policy for future games, at least as a test for the next few games. Seriously I'm tired of waiting to hear people until they are accused and come up to defend themselves. Its a waste of my time, and everyone elses time. Which reminds me: people like meeple (still), falcynn, scaramanga, fishball and nai.protoss follow this trend. Thats 5 people. Out of 18. Not good.

Anyway, people I have high on my list that should be seriously considered for lynch:

Fishball
Scaramanga
BrownBear

General reasons for lynching them have already been given, so I won't bother to go into detail on them right now. BrownBear would be my choice pick right now, but given that he is actually active, I'll wait to hear a defense before voting.

IntoTheWow: Inactives on TL mafia...are always existent. Are there trends to point to whether they are town or mafia? Not really. Inactives are useless in every game, and burden the town at the critical moments in the late game. At this point, further analysis is relatively futile. Sure, you can probably find some things, but most likely, you'll find nothing conclusive. If you are to do any analysis, analyze people who have posted a substantial amount. The information you have now is probably the only relevant information you will have. Other than that, its a crap shoot.

On April 28 2010 08:41 Incognito wrote:
BrownBear. If you want reasoning, you can have it. Three important posts about him.

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On April 22 2010 03:43 BrownBear wrote:
Ok. Wow. Reading this was intense, and this is far far deeper and more elaborate than any Mafia game I've ever played before (although, like Korynne, I've never played on a forum before, so maybe that has something to do with it.) That said, here goes, with a little mini-analysis of what seems to be the biggest story of the last 20 pages or so: Ace vs Caller.

I find the Caller bandwagon to be slightly weird. It seems that people have jumped on the caller bandwagon largely due to this post by Ace:

+ Show Spoiler +

On April 21 2010 12:37 Ace wrote:
STOP THE GAME!

Rolecheck on Caller came back : Caller is Mafia

Lets get this shit.

...although Caller really hasn't helped his cause much by being BM about it. However, the only real proof we have that Ace is his word, plus an (easily fakeable) pm from flamewheel. Of course, he still could easily be a detective, as he said, but then that begs the question: why did the Mafia not kill him on night 1, and go for Radfield instead? I have not seen any evidence that the Mafia knew somehow that Radfield was a detective - except, of course, for another post by Ace:

+ Show Spoiler +

On April 20 2010 06:42 Ace wrote:

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wait my bad. This guy is. Don't let him die - only hope for the town to win.

...which doesnt exactly implicate Radfield as a detective, but... it's just very very strange to me.

It's not really enough for me to stick my neck out for Caller, as he's pretty obviously today's pincushion, and honestly, people have been lynched in Mafia games for less that this. However, it does make me suspicious, so here's my recommendation:

Lynch Caller today, and see what his role was. If he does turn out to be scum, then I hereby retract all the nasty horrible things I said about Ace in this post, with my most humble apologies. However, if he's innocent... I for one will be targeting the guy who seems most responsible for his death.

Now to prepare to have my argument cut to shreds

First post about the Caller/Ace situation. At first, this sounds like a post that supports Caller's lynch. It seemingly says to trust Ace on Caller unless Caller turns up green, which is perfectly logical. However, why does this require so many words? If you look at the underlying tone of this message, it looks to plant seeds of doubt on Ace's credibility. BrownBear a) questions why Ace is still alive if he is truly a DT, b) mentions how Ace's DT check is "easily fakeable" (he could forge a pm from flamewheel, which is in fact, illegal, but whatevers), and c) finds it "interesting" that Ace mentioned how Radfield (a dead DT) was critical for the town. Lets unpack.

Questioning Ace's DT alignment is a good move for the mafia. They know Caller was innocent, so by questioning Ace's alignment, they could prepare to say "see I told you" when Caller flips green and lynch Ace the next day. Furthermore, BrownBear downscales the validity of Ace's rolecheck, saying that it is virtually unprovable. While we did see BC also make a similar attack and BC was town, the other parts of BrownBear's post show that BrownBear's logic is different. BC was relying on previous (and widely known) metagame tactics to lynch the DT as the best course of action for the town, while BrownBear simply doubts Ace's checks because they are "unprovable". Whether or not you agree with the BC's proposed strategy, at least he provided one. BrownBear, on the other hand, does nothing of the sort, and simply attacks Ace's validity without providing a logical underlying reason. The reasons he gives are that there is no proof. BrownBear's post has direction or basis in logic. It is merely a doubt post. In addition, BrownBear brings up Ace's post where he tells the medics to protect Radfield, who is the only hope for the town to win. Why does he bring this up and only say that "it is very very strange to me"? By saying this, BrownBear is trying to implicate Ace's role in Radfield's death, without actually explicitly attacking him. Why does BrownBear mention all the above points? It doesn't make sense if he were town. As a townie, its obvious that if Caller flips green, Ace is BSing and should be lynched. There's no further need to place doubt on Ace. Unless of course you're mafia trying to get brownie points.

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Second big post by BrownBear. First off, we know that before this post, RoL already claimed that he checked BC as a MAFIA. So why does BrownBear say BC is an assassin? First off, let us first assume that BrownBear is town. A logical reason for calling BC an assassin, is naturally, because he doesn't believe RoL is a DT. Which he does post. So from a town-point of view, BB's actions make sense here.

Now let's assume that BrownBear is mafia. Well, given from the previous debacle with Ace/Caller, the mafia might be afraid of millers and would be moved to consider attempting to lynch the unconfirmed DT before he is confirmed. The mafia knew that RoL wasn't mafia, and therefore was either a green BSing, or a DT/Assassin. Because of the risk of getting (another) confirmed DT, it makes sense that the mafia would want to kill RoL first. BC was a suspicious target anyway, and they could probably get him lynched after that, even if RoL did not turn out to be DT/Assassin. And if RoL turned out to be DT/Assassin, it would be all the more easier to lynch BC the next day. Win-win for the mafia.

Now we have two reasonable explanations here. Both make sense, and are reasonable interpretations. So I guess we'd have to look elsewhere for more information.

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BrownBear makes a defense post, where he acknowledges that he now thinks Ace is 100% DT (whereas before he was was still doubting), and throws up a poor analysis of Bill Murray. Absolutely trash analysis, which, contrasts with his previous analyses. (At least his BC and RoL analysis had some decent logic). The one sided, incomplete, and grossly mis-representative analysis of BM makes me think that this was thrown up in a hurry to avoid suspicion. Very shady here.

What else is wrong with this analysis though? It focuses on Bill Murray as a good analyst and says that "he has yet to accuse random people without some evidence, except for at the beginning of the game". First off, Bill isn't a good analyst, and even then, the material that BB focuses on is that BM correctly guessed an assassin and a DT, which are not the most pro-town of activities. Analysis on mafia is very different than speculation on blues, and here, BB seems to want to want to make us think that Bill is useful because he has good analysis. Furthermore, BB also says that the fact that Bill hasn't random accused recently makes him more pro-town. While it may be true that Bill hasn't done that recently, he hasn't even been active recently either. BB's attempt to play up Bill's analysis skills and dismiss his early random accusations (scummy behavior) reminds me of a mafia trying to defend another mafia. Which brings me to another point: Unlike other candidates right now, BrownBear's lynch gives us information for tomorrow's lynch. If BrownBear flips red, we get a juicy lynch target for tomorrow.

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People have stated that this is scummy because it is a preemptive defense. That is true, but there's more to look at here than just that. As I have already told everyone before,

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While I wrote this to address the problem of ppl justifying their votes by just blindly following someone, the same principle applies to analysis. Own your analysis. Don't hedge your possible error. Adding fluff words to distance themselves away from their analysis is something that scum do to attempt to flee accountability if they're wrong. Justifying your analysis by saying "but oh, if he's town, he's useless anyway" is a great way for you to hide if you're mafia. Sure BrownBear, you could have done this even if you were town. But given all the other things you've done, that possibility does not seem too likely. Luckily, this statement also gives us direction on what to do tomorrow if you flip red. It tells us that we should probably not lynch Fishball.

One more thing, the icing on the cake:

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This is a BS response. Before he even acknowledges the fact that he preemptively defended himself, he tells us why he's concerned about getting bandwagoned. That wasn't the question. And it looks bad when you defend yourself on a question on why you're defending yourself when you haven't even been attacked yet.

Summary: BrownBear is scummy and should be lynched. Yes there are other scummy people out there. But unlike other alternatives, BrownBear has said enough that we have leads tomorrow if he flips red. So we get a bonus here because we off a very suspicious character while also learning information. Win-win for us.

On April 28 2010 08:50 Incognito wrote:
Hello nbtnbt5, would you care to explain to us why you voted for Scaramanga?

On April 28 2010 08:54 Incognito wrote:

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O hai BrownBear! Oh I guess I forgot one other thing:

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But you didn't follow through with this.

And now you want to lynch Scaramanga/Scamp? Abandoned faith in your analysis? Or just too scared that when he flips town, we won't believe your preemptive defense?

On April 28 2010 08:57 Incognito wrote:

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Of course. Because if you acknowledge that you have scummy behavior, it clearly means that you are definitely not scum.

On April 29 2010 06:12 Incognito wrote:
Wow. I screwed up. But Jugan, 4 other modkills, and now this? dFortunately flamewheel didn't decide to penalize us more by getting you for the strategic modkilling. That would have really hurt. Anyway, at least this gives us another chance to lynch a mafia. Not a lot of time to reach a majority, but I now think nbtnbt5 would be a good bet. Why? Well, first off, he's inactive. Like a lot of other people. But he's "interested that nai.protoss chose to analyze a really inactive poster". In itself, that sounds suspicious. Trying to hide much? Furthermore, when asked why he voted for Scaramanga, he says that he is pretty easily swayed, and cites blind support for BM's plan. Sorry, but you can't just get away with blind support. If he was truly swayed by the argument against Scaramanga (as presented by Rage methinks?), then he would know that the argument was that Scara is useless. Now, what exactly have you done, nbtnbt5? Hypocrisy much?

On April 29 2010 14:00 Incognito wrote:
^^ Yes, random protection is good. At this point, mafia can just shoot for numbers instead of useful ppl. So making a medic list would have no point, as the mafia would just shoot ppl not on it to ensure that they reduce our numbers.

Lynch suspects for tomorrow are: almost everyone. Hasn't changed much. But I wouldn't be surprised if flamewheel ends the game if the mafia makes their hits. So medics are pretty much our only hope. There's not too much analysis to do at this point. Just waiting to see what happens...

On April 30 2010 16:20 Incognito wrote:

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*Sigh* whats the point anymore. No medic prots. 8-6 means it takes UNANIMOUS town consent to lynch a mafioso, because we need 8 votes to lynch, and the 6 mafioso are not going to vote for a mafioso if they can help it (or will switch right before there is a majority if they can). Given the large splits in the vote, it will be almost impossible to win.

Right now I'm thinking Scara, nai.Protoss, and nbtnbt5 are strong candidates for mafia. Honestly, I don't get the reasoning for you ppl who are voting Scamp. From what I can gather, his early posts were pretty pro-town, and his recent posts haven't been too alerting. Even if he is mafia, we have better people to go after. Meeple also I think is an inferior lynch candidate. Meeple's behavior is not at all pro-town. Posting only when prodded. Useless posting, and sloppy medic list making. But meeple responded reasonably to my accusations, I feel. Like motbob said, retard townie v. mafia. I'm inclined to go for retard townie here and go for the other more suspicious people instead.

Speaking of motbob, the night kills are a bit...interesting. Fishball accused Scara, and died, but motbob defended Scara as a retard townie, and died. I'm thinking that the night kills were probably attempted (partially successful?) blue snipes. Not sure what to make of the Scara business though. I'll think about this for a while, and either vote Scara/nbt or nai/nbt at this point. What do you guys think? Remember, we'll need complete unanimity to actually catch a scum.

ZBot

194 Posts

April 20 2010 01:25 GMT

#32

love1another

+ Show Spoiler +

On April 16 2010 15:20 love1another wrote:
Signing up.

On April 18 2010 01:34 love1another wrote:
Hi guys! I got/mayhavegotten my role thanks

This should be fun!

On April 18 2010 13:47 love1another wrote:

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I don't understand how this system works. And guys! I'm not an assassin

On April 18 2010 14:02 love1another wrote:
Hi Jugan. Will you be my friend?

ZBot

194 Posts

April 20 2010 01:25 GMT

#33

AcrossFiveJulys

+ Show Spoiler +

On April 16 2010 15:24 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
Sign me up yo

On April 18 2010 08:06 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:

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On April 18 2010 07:58 madnessman wrote:

On April 18 2010 07:42 d3_crescentia wrote:
2) BC, we can't establish DT circles in this game because there are no PMs allowed, so this strategy seems pretty invalid as well.

I've already brought this up, and BC has replied.

On April 18 2010 06:28 BloodyC0bbler wrote:

On April 18 2010 06:12 madnessman wrote:

On April 18 2010 05:47 BloodyC0bbler wrote:

On April 18 2010 12:31 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:

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On April 22 2010 10:07 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
Ok, apologies for being inactive in the past couple days; this is my finals week, so I've been working madly on projects/studying. I have a final on friday, but after that I should be quite active assuming I'm not killed by then.

I'd like to discuss an obvious issue which hasn't yet gotten too much attention.

I am going to go with the assumption that Ace is a detective, assassin, or another non mafia role. I believe this to be the case because if he was mafia, he would not want to claim caller was mafia after a "rolecheck" and have him flip townie and therefore suffer a lynch the next day, lowing mafia KP. The only way I see for this not to be the case is if the mafia went for a very risky strategy hoping that caller was a miller and succeeded, but that's just not likely at all. Ok, so it seems that Ace is not mafia, and most likely is a detective or assassin due to his pointing out caller as red after a rolecheck.

Now that I have justified that assumption, let's think about what that implies about the people who voted for caller:

Voted for caller:
Ace
Falcynn
nAi.PrOtOsS
Incognito
DarthThienAn
RebirthOfLeGenD
motbob
meeple
IntoTheWow
Scaramanga
Korynne
RaGe
d3_crescentia
Osmoses
Scamp
~~Caller~~

Are these people likely or unlikely to be scum?

Since ace "rolechecked" caller, there was a good case for townies to lynch him. So mafia knew that enough townies would vote to lynch caller, but they also knew caller would flip green. As such, I believe that most if not all people on that list are not mafia. If the town were to focus on people on this list (which is commonly the case when a green is lynched) they would be completely wasting their time, which is great for mafia. Drawing on this observation, here are the people that are left:

BrownBear
tree.hugger
KF91
iNfuNdiBuLuM
BloodyC0bbler
Bill Murray
Fishball
Abenson
JadeFist
Roffles
nbtnbt5
love1another
AcrossFiveJulys
madnessman

So therefore AcrossFiveJulys must be mafia. Wait...

But anyway, that's a juicy list, and I think we should focus on those people.

On April 22 2010 10:36 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
And by the way... exactly HALF of the people on the list I just posted voted to lynch jpak, here they are...

BloodyC0bbler
Fishball
KF91
Abenson
RebirthOfLeGend
BrownBear (aka zona before)
madnessman

On April 22 2010 10:40 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
Oh minus rebirthoflegend

On April 22 2010 10:46 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
..and also minus madnessman wow wtf am i doing sorry about that

Ok, the actual non-caller list intersected with the jpak list:

BloodyC0bbler
Fishball
KF91
Abenson
Brownbear

On April 22 2010 10:49 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
@ crescentia, I'm not saying that list picks up all the mafia, I'm saying it's more likely to include mafia, especially when intersected with the jpak list. I agree that other posting behaviors should be taken into account; perhaps others might step in and scrutinize the 5 people on the list I just posted?

On April 22 2010 13:56 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
1 more vote to double lynch, cmon people...

On April 22 2010 15:21 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:

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Well that doesn't change your role...

On April 23 2010 14:36 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:

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Wow, impulsive defense for inactivity with an excuse already tucked away in your back pocket? Mafia much?

On April 23 2010 14:45 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:

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Sure. Dead by tomorrow.

If he doesn't die tonight, though, I think he's a good candidate to be one of the lynchees tomorrow depending on how the RoL/BC conflict resolves itself tonight.

On April 23 2010 15:02 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:

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You too right? let's both kill falcynn in case a medic tries to protect him ~_~

On April 23 2010 15:20 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:

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How very noble: sacrificing yourself for the good of the town. Are you TRYING to make yourself look worse?

On April 23 2010 15:22 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
Just to be clear, nai.protoss, it's only night, so if you want to improve the way you're being perceived, quit your whining and start analyzing so we can get some good vig hits.

On April 23 2010 16:39 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
I actually would say yes, protect RoL, because the mafia know whether or not he's a detective. Here's my proposed plan:

Vig, kill BC.
--If BC flips mafia: yay, we got a mafia kill, and we know that RoL is either a trustworthy detective or an assassin. Now we can choose 2 targets for the double lynch and hopefully bag at least 1 more mafioso.
--If BC flips town: we lynch RoL for a mafia kill and hopefully get another through the double lynch

Medics, protect RoL and Ace. Why the hell should Incognito be protected? Sure, he comes off as pro town and I trust him more than most people right now, but he could easily be mafia trying to shepard the town into trusting him. Further, he has not claimed any kind of blue role, so while he brings forth good analysis we are better off protecting our (most likely) detective Ace and (potential) detective RoL.

On April 23 2010 16:42 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
Korynne, looks like we're on the same wavelength. You are either a clear townie or extremely well disguised scum.

On April 23 2010 16:49 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
And by the way, it would be great to hear some thoughts from BC and RoL because neither of them have been active tonight.

On April 23 2010 16:53 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:

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Read what I wrote more carefully. The point is, he could be a detective, and the mafia will surely try to kill him tonight if he is, and plus we can lynch him tomorrow if it turned out he was BSing on the rolecheck since BC will die tonight. There is much more reason to protect him than incognito.

On April 23 2010 17:02 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
I say the medics independently protect Ace with 2/3 probability and RoL with 1/3 probability. It would be disastrous to lose Ace so he should be the focus of protection, but we also need to deter mafia from hitting RoL.

On April 23 2010 17:19 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
I think those numbers are good. Mafia probably won't bother to try hitting Ace, and if they go for RoL at least they will have to waste 2KP rather than 1.

Of course, this is all on the assumption that there are exactly 3 medics left; for all we know, there could be 2 or 4 left.

On April 23 2010 17:21 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
Small correction, I meant that post is on the assumption that there are 2 medics left, and there could be 1 or 3 left (4 seems unlikely)

On April 23 2010 21:11 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
I have a theory about JadeFist. Here's his only non-signup post:

Show nested quote +

He whined that the roles are rigged by the host. This makes it look to me as if he wanted an "important" role, but got townie and is not interested in the game. He could be mafia and hoping to make us think just that, but I think for now we have bigger fish to fry.

On April 23 2010 21:24 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
maybe you're right meeple. what do you think about that post, then? Do you think he was trying to be misleading?

ZBot

194 Posts

April 20 2010 01:26 GMT

#34

nAi.PrOtOsS

+ Show Spoiler +

On April 16 2010 15:52 nAi.PrOtOsS wrote:
Sign up please

On April 18 2010 03:46 nAi.PrOtOsS wrote:
So lynch the inactive people to begin with is the strategy?

On April 18 2010 14:03 nAi.PrOtOsS wrote:

Show nested quote +

From what I understand (I might be wrong) we just go through the list eliminating people according to their order, and when somone is killed by the mafia during the night, the corresponding person on either the kill or get killed list is lynched. And if somone goes against the kill list then they are to be lynched.

On April 18 2010 15:03 nAi.PrOtOsS wrote:
Does anyone know how the roles are given out? If the roles are specifically selected by the narrator then it seems likely that more difficult roles such as mafia, and assassin would be given out a majority of mafia veteran players. I would guess that the percentage of mafia veterans that are mafia as opposed to newer players(there are 6 new players) would be significantly higher. Letting newer players have an easier roles allows them to learn the game, and not mess it up for others.

On April 18 2010 17:50 nAi.PrOtOsS wrote:
I disagree I think that members of the mafia will try to take a role in the strategy planning process, meaning they are the most active early on.

On April 19 2010 06:32 nAi.PrOtOsS wrote:
I thought Caller made a lot of sense, members of the mafia would want to post frequently early on so they are not lynched for being inactive but they also don't want to actually say much in their posts because the more they say the more chance of being proven scum.

On April 19 2010 06:36 nAi.PrOtOsS wrote:

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I see it too much also you have to consider inexperienced players (such as myself) feel pressure to post early on so they don't get lynched for being inactive.

On April 19 2010 06:45 nAi.PrOtOsS wrote:

Show nested quote +

I see it too much also you have to consider inexperienced players (such as myself) feel pressure to post early on so they don't get lynched for being inactive.

On April 19 2010 06:59 nAi.PrOtOsS wrote:
I made one post that could be considered "random" and then explained it moments later.

On April 19 2010 07:29 nAi.PrOtOsS wrote:

Show nested quote +

If you look at other threads you will see this is my first game. The two mafia type players you described before were the quite members that pretty much agreed with townies and offered no opinion themselves, and the experienced mafia members which appeared to be extremely pro-town.

Now why would an inexperienced member of the mafia do the exact thing that you just stated as showing mafia members. No reason what so ever. An inexperienced townie however that doesn't want to get lynched for being inactive, but also is to inexperienced to actually add anything to the conversation has nothing to lose from agreeing with the "experienced townie".

On April 19 2010 07:31 nAi.PrOtOsS wrote:
I am trying to post as often as I can to explain why I am not mafia but I also need to study for midterms and can't refresh every 5 minutes :s

On April 19 2010 07:40 nAi.PrOtOsS wrote:
I think that the mafia are laughing at us right now. I don't believe that Ace, Caller, or iNfuNdiBuLuM are mafia. I think that the mafia are just sitting back and letting us tear eachother's throats out.

I voted for you because I didn't want to miss the vote first off, and at the time I thought that you were scared of being lynched so you were just trying to take me out before you were killed. The more you post the more I want to change my vote. But until I can find somone better to vote for it remains on you.

On April 19 2010 08:59 nAi.PrOtOsS wrote:

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So lets hear who you think is mafia. I have no idea. I am not convinced it's Caller, so why would I argue he is? Defending myself is pro-town.

On April 19 2010 09:02 nAi.PrOtOsS wrote:
Also with the amount of information we have currently which is absolutly nothing, the best thing we can do is to just pick the most inactive person and vote him off. If there are multiple inactive people then we should vote off the most experienced inactive people, because if they are mafia they are the least likely to make mistakes later on in the game.

On April 20 2010 03:14 nAi.PrOtOsS wrote:
Vote changed to RebirthOfLegend because he has not made a post yet in this game, and I completly agree with voting off the least active person to begin with. Also I think a consensus may be met on this, as opposed to others.

On April 20 2010 03:42 nAi.PrOtOsS wrote:

Show nested quote +

Inactive* I really hate not being able to edit lol

Also how is Rage red? It makes sense to vote off somone who is not active, because the less they talk the less chance we have to learn their allegiances.

Question: Do we have to vote somone off? or is it just better to not vote anyone off because the chances are we will lynch an innocent?

On April 20 2010 12:09 nAi.PrOtOsS wrote:
Maybe starting off the game by trolling and then insulting people later on is not the best way to make friends. Even you're tone in you're "apology" is extremely sarcastic and arrogant, maybe you just need to learn how to respect others.

On April 21 2010 13:37 nAi.PrOtOsS wrote:

Show nested quote +

On April 21 2010 13:38 nAi.PrOtOsS wrote:
Wow my bad I would edit and spoiler that... my bad.

On April 23 2010 14:53 nAi.PrOtOsS wrote:
Honestly when I signed up for this I didnt expect it to be so indepth and so much work. Also it seems when ever I post I make an idiot out of myself and further prove myself to be mafia. Since I am town and want to not get voted out so my team can win I have just sat back and not posted, except to defend myself so I hopefully don't get voted out by my teammates.

On April 23 2010 14:55 nAi.PrOtOsS wrote:
Also I havent said one untrue thing maybe it's suspicious from your point of view because your overanalyzing everything that I say.

On April 23 2010 15:10 nAi.PrOtOsS wrote:

Show nested quote +

To late for generating content. If you have already convinced yourselves that I am mafia then no amount of content will change that. No matter what I say it will be overanalyzed and used as "evidence" as to why I am mafia. I will save you a vote and go inactive next day cycle, and get modkilled.

On April 25 2010 09:19 nAi.PrOtOsS wrote:

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It's nearly impossible that Ace is mafia. If ace was mafia and one of his "fake" rolechecks that showed someone to be mafia came up as anything other then mafia or miller be would be lynched immedietly. Since the mafia don't have any rolecheckers the chances of him hitting two millers among the sea of townies is slim to none.

Question: If we kill the godfather the game is over right?

On April 28 2010 03:31 nAi.PrOtOsS wrote:
nbtnbt5

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States that he is new at this and is posting for no other reason then to not get modkilled. Waiting for a more experienced player to take the lead so that he can follow him.

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This post is in response to some criticism regarding BM's initial assassin plan. I know that many people didn't understand BM's plan and I am in that group as well. Most likely nbtnbt5 did not understand it either and is just agreeing with the more experienced player at this point. Also possible that he just made no effort at all to understand it, and is posting just to avoid a mod kill.

Show nested quote +

This was in response to Rage's post about just voting off the least active person. nbtnbt5 immediately swaps from BM's plan to Rage's plan without giving any logical argument as to why he believe it is better. "Sound logic is sound"

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Again agreeing with a more experienced player with absolutely no argument to back it up.

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Filler post again.

Final thoughts: Posting just enough to stay alive and avoid being mod killed and flying completely under the radar. Every single post he has made has had absolutely no content in it. He has literally posted the bare minimum required to remain in this game. He is either scum, a completely useless townie, either way he is barely reading this thread and just posting every day to avoid a mod kill. Clearly he is not a very big threat and should be dealt with near the end of the game.
(I know I am doing something very similar to this as well so no need to state how hypocritical it is)

On April 28 2010 09:47 nAi.PrOtOsS wrote:

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Actually I was supposed to.... I was 16 on the randomly generated list and you were 13. 16 + 16 = 32. 32 - 19 = 13.

On April 30 2010 12:48 nAi.PrOtOsS wrote:
Now edit your's because you just quoted it

ZBot

194 Posts

April 20 2010 01:26 GMT

#35

DarthThienAn

+ Show Spoiler +

On April 16 2010 17:54 DarthThienAn wrote:
Sign me up

On April 17 2010 02:52 DarthThienAn wrote:
how2play?menub?kkkkkk.

jk, can't wait :D.

On April 18 2010 12:33 DarthThienAn wrote:
@Bill Murray,

Why is everyone an Assassin? O.o I don't get it.

On April 18 2010 20:06 DarthThienAn wrote:

Show nested quote +

Am I smart and in Ravenclaw? ^^.

--

I'd agree with a day 3 lynch. Makes the most sense, we have a good bit of information, and waiting isn't a great idea since the Mafia's KP will probably remain relatively high.

Wouldn't assassins care more about winning the assassin way than as townspeople? Though they count as townspeople, they "lose" if either the town or mafia wins. So... I still don't understand why anyone would agree with BM's plan (not saying anyone has)

That's about all I've gathered from the last few pages...

On April 18 2010 22:06 DarthThienAn wrote:
Clarification request: (I'm new + checked the OP + don't remember it being discussed)

Can Mafia be Assassins? Or is it limited to Blue/Green roles?
It'd be pretty funny if 2+ mafia were assassins ^^. But I doubt our mod would make more than 1 or 2 (if even that) assassins.

Regarding something said earlier (by Zona maybe?), Assassins are almost certain to check someone during the first night - I mean really, who would kill randomly -.-? So for them, it doesn't really make sense for them to follow a list... But it also means we can expect only mafia kills tonight.

On April 18 2010 22:09 DarthThienAn wrote:

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Yeah, who the miller is (millers are??) is absolutely irrelevant to our analysis because nobody knows. Everyone suggesting that they were millers was just (either honestly or with some motive) q.q-ing about their role and suggesting that flamewheel "probably" made them millers "again" just cuz.

On April 19 2010 14:56 DarthThienAn wrote:
1. there are way too many useless posts in this thread -.-. it's really annoying to read through 1-2 pages of Jugan arguing with the mods about his posting quality... (nothing against you, just one of the more recent examples). I has a life, I can't spend it ALL reading this thread.

2.

Show nested quote +

I'd like to highlight this... makes me think Inf and Nai are connected? Why else would he bother to defend Nai so specifically? To me, Nai is just another inactive, I probably would have worded my post as like "why are we killing inactives?" or "why are we killing one specific inactive? There are too many to decide from" etc. etc.

3. Also, I didn't mind Caller's first few posts from a few pages back... then again, I don't really know what those terms mean ^^. But at least he's contributing.

4. Ace seems to be an arrogant elitest jerk, but that doesn't really tell us anything about his allegiance =p.

5. I voted for myself in the other thread for 2 reasons: I don't know who to vote for, and I don't think we'll get a majority anyway. Plus, the MKs should take care of more inactives than we want in the first day =[ (iirc still like 4+ left??). If we want to lynch someone in addiction to the anticipated MKs, that will give us more info, but... tis a nother possible townsperson =[. Normally, I would say lynch someone random for sure, but the whole modkilling changes things. after all, i doubt the mafia members would be dumb (or uninterested) enough to get modkilled for inactivity.

On April 19 2010 15:33 DarthThienAn wrote:

Show nested quote +

On April 19 2010 15:18 Bill Murray wrote:

On April 19 2010 07:11 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
I actually thought Caller's first post was pretty good because it rerailed the town discussion away from BM's plan, which had been beat to death. He also identified the sort of non committal passerby posts that people need to watch for and remember. However, I'm not sure how he arrived at the conclusion that Ace's strong accusations are the signs of a pro-town player. The wifom part was incorrect, and the part about inexperienced players posting more is basically an obvious truthism; pointing out something like that has no bearing on his innocence or guilt and so garners no points from me.

and why Nai Protoss all of a sudden? he's just about as useful as all the other semi-inactives. Killing him doesn't really tell us much at all, i don't think...and at least he's posting now that we're talking about him in the thread.

I stopped reading this post after it literally started with "player a makes player b look bad by defending them" then moved onto him saying he thought someone was innocent and he defended them against lynch...

total hypocrisy

I pointed that out, because no one else has pointed it out. I didn't say whether I thought Caller was mafia or not - all I said was that I didn't mind his logic / posts. I have no opinion on whether or not he gets lynched.

If you meant #4, I was just making a comment on what I thought about Ace.

I don't really see how that's hypocrisy. Inf defended Nai (who might get lynched) and implied that we shouldn't lynch him ... why? "because he's as use[less] as all the other semi-inactives." To me, that's suspicious - why defend a random stranger so specifically? If someone's against the idea of a day 1 lynch, they wouldn't care who we were discussing we should lynch, they would be much more general about it. And I'm not defending Caller from a lynch, I'm just saying that I agree with some of his posts/analysis. Says nothing about his role in this game.

And I doubt you actually stopped reading the post.

On April 21 2010 04:42 DarthThienAn wrote:

Show nested quote +

On April 21 2010 04:40 Caller wrote:

On April 21 2010 04:35 Jugan wrote:

On April 21 2010 04:33 Caller wrote:

On April 21 2010 04:22 RaGe wrote:

On April 21 2010 04:15 Caller wrote:

On April 21 2010 04:08 RaGe wrote:

On April 21 2010 03:01 Caller wrote:
Rage, congratulations, you just confirmed my suspicions of you as mafia.

Consider the facts:

every single piece of evidence I tossed at RaGe was flimsy and easily torn apart by simple, reasonable, logic. In fact look at my post history:

Let's say RaGe is pro-town. Thus he would consider his ideas to be pro-town as well. Thus, anybody that goes against his ideas would be considered anti-town and thus a lynch candidate, or they're a stupid townie. Despite reality and statistics, people generally consider me a good player, so they automatically remove me from the idea of "stupid townie" even though that is usually my role.
Thus the only apparent choice is that I'm anti-town and should therefore be lynched. This is especially because if RaGe truly was pro-town, and I not only go against him but accuse him with basically nonsense and nulltells, that this means that clearly I am mafia and he should advocate for my lynch.

But we already know that several people consider me to be pro-town despite my complete lack of intelligible contributions. Going after me may be risky, especially because it draws attention to yourself. Now what would a townie think?

a) who cares if I die, I have no role anyways, might as well go after Caller b/c he might be mafia godfather or smth!!!!oneoneone
or
b) this is too risky, if I die I might give too much information away, better to play it safe

Remember what I said about how town and mafia play? Most inexperienced mafia tend to play it safe when they can. For instance, notice how Ace (before he went trollcore) was willing to put (well, not himself) but a lot of effort and also draw attention to himself (by the way he still hasn't analyzed my posts, can I pay money for that?) when he accused me. I defended myself, but anyone can see that I instinctively concluded that because he disagreed with me, and I'm pro-town, and he's an intelligent player, that therefore he must be anti-town. Everybody does this when faced with an accusation that's flimsy. Everybody. Even the most experienced players tend to get pissed off when this is the case.

Yet what does RaGe do? He calmly dismantles my argument and then proceeds to pretend like I've done nothing wrong, aside from going against everything he thinks is pro-town (promoting unity or whatever horsehydro-evacuatedremainder he mentions of being pro-town. He himself has mentioned how he hasn't played in a while, so he's probably not pulling something sneaky here. And yet he proceeds to assume that I'm town, because he doesn't go after me at all and is like "you have a few reasonable points, etc." Why would anybody in their right mind do this? Look what even Jugen did when I accused him. He proceeded to burst a blood vessel in his criticism of me, even though it was pretty inarticulate and didn't really do anything to my credibility. Yet RaGe just kind of pretends it doesn't happen without any sort of retaliation. Unless you're the gosuest townie in the world, I think it's pretty easy to conclude what RaGe's true affiliation is.

Please, regardless of who dies tonight, check this man out.

lmao

are you serious

ofc im serious everytime i make a wall of text im cereal

well since your post implies nothing else but mind reading capabilities, who's my #1 suspect according to you.. or wait.. who am I gonna kill tonight with my mafia powarz?

I'm sure that wall of text was as much of a 'game' as the one before it. I'm just not sure what this one is trying to achieve. I hope you're a detective pretending to be a dumb townie

oh no, this one isn't a game. this one is fully serious.

explain to me the flaws with the logic you used last time, or can you not explain them?

Caller would you mind displaying and analyzing some of rage's contradictions as proof to help yourself out?

oh there's no contradictions. Just follow the logic, though. Give me another explanation for what he did.

The calm response? Maybe he's a calm guy =o.

On April 21 2010 11:46 DarthThienAn wrote:
-___-. Jugan, why couldn't you have been bm as mafia?

On April 21 2010 12:58 DarthThienAn wrote:
Time to pay my taxes =o. Incognitoâs idea for analysis sounds very efficient, so I think everyone should follow.
My guy: Osmoses
+ Show Spoiler +

First, from Zbot:

+ Show Spoiler +

On April 20 2010 10:28 ZBot wrote:
Osmoses

+ Show Spoiler +

On April 16 2010 23:47 Osmoses wrote:
/in

On April 18 2010 02:03 Osmoses wrote:
Que madness:

On April 18 2010 02:20 Osmoses wrote:

Show nested quote +

Firebat > Zergling. Owned.

On April 18 2010 02:25 Osmoses wrote:
Well by then I'll be a... uh... I wanna say vulture? They got spider mines you know.

On April 18 2010 07:08 Osmoses wrote:
I'm a total newbie but wouldn't it make more sense to save double lynches as late as possible, when you have solid info to go on?

On April 18 2010 09:10 Osmoses wrote:
I'd say of course, comparing posting before and after game start can show differences depending on role.

On April 18 2010 09:11 Osmoses wrote:
I shall return with my brilliant insights when the day begins in Sweden as well.

On April 18 2010 17:18 Osmoses wrote:
I'm suspicious of Zona, his attack on BC seems forced somehow, too condescending, but also too fervent for both to be scum. Why is everyone, that is to say BM, focusing on the assasins anyway? It seems to me they are very unlikely to win in the end, as they will probably be lynched or killed by other assassins well before the end of the game.

Here's my supergenius plan: lynch the least active player, it's the quiet ones you gotta watch!

On April 18 2010 20:18 Osmoses wrote:
Ace, if newbies weren't allowed, there'd be no games, period. Your bitching doesn't help anyone get better.

On April 19 2010 05:58 Osmoses wrote:
Assassins will influence politics, trying to gear lynches in their favor against the ones they suspect to be assassins... Basically they will be the very annoying players that you can't really pin as scum or townie because they have double agendas. They may just appear confused or stupid, I mean they'd have to cook up some pretty elaborate schemes to sway the votes in the favor of someone they want killed if that person doesn't act like scum.

Its really pretty tiring trying to figure out who's what and who and why with such little information, and no clues -_- The only effect assassins have on the town is their votes and their influence, but lynching the right guy seems hard enough already, so if they do sway the vote we might just get a scum anyway... Should we really even be worrying about them? Their night kills, having only 2, will surely be spent on someone they truly believe to be an assassin, so as not to waste them, and the longer the game goes the closer the odds get to 50%. Those seems like good odds.

On April 19 2010 10:08 Osmoses wrote:

Show nested quote +

On April 19 2010 07:32 Caller wrote:

On April 19 2010 07:29 nAi.PrOtOsS wrote:

On April 19 2010 07:16 Caller wrote:

To be honest, now that I read it again, your post wasn't as much of a WifoM as I had thought the first time.

The reason I suspect nai.protoss now is because he demonstrated that while he reads the posts, he doesn't read the posts. Not only that, but he came out of nowhere to do the very thing I said not to do and left without responding to my allegations. I can see the situation very clearly (this happened to me multiple times in the previous mafia as follows):

a) I make a retarded post. LMNOP and Shinbi-chan are like WTF CALLER UR A FUCKIN MORON
b) They tell me to stfu and Shinbi-chan posts a load of bullcrap to derail anybody from noticing my fishy as shit posts.
c) everything goes back to normal.

What's to think the same thing didn't happen here?

You're already judging yourself to having nothing to add? Are you kidding?

I'm telling you this now: whenever "experienced townies" take control of the town, town tends to lose pretty hard. Say something! We need people to think outside of the box, both in game and for the metagame. What do you have to say? Do you have anything to say? Would you even like to justify your vote for me?

Just because some "big name" player with a x000 post count is talking doesn't mean they know what they're talking about. Look at me or L for instance. We need inexperienced players to think outside of the mafia box to give us better ideas for gameplay. Say something!

I said something and you called me out for being a crap poster. I was trying to figure stuff out, apparently I shouldn't do so out loud. You want clear and concise, how about this:

1. BC entered a game which he seems uninterested in winning and even seems to advocate getting lynched. He is either A) wasting his time or B) reverse psychology scum.

2. Ace and Caller are supposed to know what they're doing but they're shitting all over each other. I suspect at least one of them may be scum.

3. Caller is trying to play the good cop:

Show nested quote +

I had a 4th bullet but I lost my train of thought.

On April 20 2010 05:32 Osmoses wrote:

Show nested quote +

On April 19 2010 13:53 Incognito wrote:
Time to pull out the accusation gun.

Osmoses:

On April 18 2010 07:08 Osmoses wrote:
I'm a total newbie but wouldn't it make more sense to save double lynches as late as possible, when you have solid info to go on?

On April 19 2010 05:58 Osmoses wrote:
Assassins will influence politics, trying to gear lynches in their favor against the ones they suspect to be assassins... Basically they will be the very annoying players that you can't really pin as scum or townie because they have double agendas. They may just appear confused or stupid, I mean they'd have to cook up some pretty elaborate schemes to sway the votes in the favor of someone they want killed if that person doesn't act like scum.

Its really pretty tiring trying to figure out who's what and who and why with such little information, and no clues -_- The only effect assassins have on the town is their votes and their influence, but lynching the right guy seems hard enough already, so if they do sway the vote we might just get a scum anyway... Should we really even be worrying about them? Their night kills, having only 2, will surely be spent on someone they truly believe to be an assassin, so as not to waste them, and the longer the game goes the closer the odds get to 50%. Those seems like good odds.

Again with this? I'm really sorry, but I AM a newbie and I AM confused, I don't know what to say. I'm just trying to be active and participate, but I don't know what to look for or what angles to analyze from. :/ But in my defense, in the first post you quoted I was giving what I thought was a pretty rational opinion on the double lynch and in the second post I personally thought I was being helpful, sorting out the assassin roles. The point I was trying to get across was that we shouldn't be focusing on them, spending all our time trying to figure out how to get them to work in our advantage seems pretty wasteful to me. How is this not an honest attempt at contribution?

But alright, let me tell you exactly why I think BC and Zona are suspicious:

Show nested quote +

While this might seem a perfectly reasonable argument, in fact I'd say it might've been one of the reasons I suspect BC, but the fact that it comes from Zona and is directed at BC is what made me suspicious. Both are supposedly veterans who ought to be at least decent at hiding their agenda, but Zona is accusing BC of taking a backseat because he's afraid he'll screw up. It just struck me as an odd way to start, too agressive, and seemed like a mock fight to direct attention away from Zona.

Show nested quote +

OK, this seemed at first like a bunch of weird jibber jabber to me. First of all BC is a veteran but didn't even bother to read the rules, which is what Zona immediately jumps on. But lets be honest, do you ever read a manual unless you can't figure something out? I never do, and I'm guessing BC simply didn't bother either because he assumed something or because he couldn't be assed, either way, how is lazyness a mark of scum? His whole attack was just stupid, he's basically jumping on BC for not knowing the rules and their implications. He's grasping at straws, trying to find any reason to jump on BC. This seemed a scummy move to me.

Show nested quote +

This was the only reasonable argument he made, and the one reason I considered whether Zona wasn't just being stupid in his other posts and had a lucky brainwave here. BC is playing the benevolent veteran, but he's overdoing it, like a big Santa Claus, and this along with the very next part of the above quote:

Show nested quote +

is what really got me wondering about BC. Live or die based on actions? Who's actions? The mafia's obviously, as they're the only ones the medics can protect them against (if I understood their role right). And then he says "if we are red and survive, we will be caught very very quickly" so what was the PROBLEM!? His whole strategy is one big oxymoron.

And basically, as he suddenly appreared very scummy, I started having second thoughts about Zona, though if they're working together that might've been their plan. Third option is BC had a short cirquit and Zona jumped at the chance of getting something of actual merit to accuse him with.

And lately I've started to suspect Jugan. To be perfectly honest, I have no good reasoning for this, he's just being really annoying and I'd take any excuse to get him the hell out of here. -_-

Also, Radfield, please don't insult me by saying I was jumping on Bill Murrays bandwagon, because imo its a failtrain, I honestly thought his assassin strategy was a joke.

In conclusion, I'm with RaGe on the whole FoS thing, can we at least wait until we have some semblance of information before we lynch people who are at least active and participating? By all means if you wanna point the FoS at me, do so, but have some merit to your arguments, don't just lynch me for trying to be useful.

On April 20 2010 06:42 Osmoses wrote:
Better get yourself another tampon, you're bleeding all over the place.

On April 20 2010 06:48 Osmoses wrote:
OK that did made me giggle... But I'm not proud of it.

On April 20 2010 11:09 Osmoses wrote:

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Game doesn't END if an Assassin wins... right? I thought the Assassin won and the game continued for the rest of the players.

Also, I dunno if jpak being an assassin was good or bad, but it is definitely funny.

On April 21 2010 08:40 Osmoses wrote:
I'm not concerned about RaGe, his arguments are solid. I'm more concerned about Fulgrim, JadeFist, nbtnbt5, love1another, and motbob, all of which have barely participated at all. Are you too busy huddling around a round table at your italian restauraunt?

Caller, all your arguments still stem from what you would have done if you were mafia. Is anyone here saying that Caller is surely pro-town? I'm not saying you're definitely scum, but you definitely do not come off as pro-town to me. So far all you've done is sow dissent and point fingers, and when you attack RaGe and he doesn't go apeshit that somehow translates to surefire scum? Do you have to be a hothead to be mafia? Maybe RaGe's gameplan is more complex than "if someone says something that I find fishy in any way, I must call that person out as scum." That's your gameplan, and I don't think it's working. Please stop congratulating people for making your suspect list, it doesn't seem to be particularly difficult.

Anyone else think maybe he's doing this on purpose? I can't follow his logic.

The only one I would say I'm sure is town is tree.hugger, he's clear, conscise and has intelligent things to say.

As for Zona, can we get a statement? Your recent absence aside, the automatic archives is awesome, much props. Cynan, you were pretty active at first but lately (like, your last 10 posts) you've been very tight-lipped and short of words. I think it would be good to see more than a oneliner the next time you post?

KF91, going through your posts I agree with most of what you say, but then,
When it reaches Day 3 or so (We would have about 10 less players than right now), I think it would be more manageable for me to start analyzing and accusing people.

Just what you'll be doing for the first two days. Participation is low as it is, it seems to me we can use every voice at this point.

Those should be all his posts, for reference. He also voted for nbtnbt5, calling it just a random vote on an inactive. He then changed it to jpak. He was the 7th to do so, after BC, Fishball, Radfield, KF91, Cynan, and d3, which is pretty far in and might be considered a âbandwagon.â But if he, like me, was just trying to get rid of possibly useless inactives, it makes sense for him to change his vote to someone who might actually get lynched. Iâm not reading too much into this vote change.
He also says when changing to jpak: âRaGe has done nothing but ask us to chill the fsck out.â

His first post was âQue madness:â and it was relatively early, probably just a nothing comment, but Abenson jumped on him and tried to vote for him straight off the bat (later apologized).
He then says âFirebat > Zergling. Owned.â Alluding to their post count on TL (and portraits). The exchange with Abenson is pretty useless and not game related.

As Inc pointed out before, he prefixes his next post with the âIâm noobâ card, and then suggests that saving the double lynch is better. Is this his first game? If so, then this is pretty legitimate. If not, then heâs probably faking and scum. (my first game and I didnât take the time to read through old games, so if vets can answer this)
In his next relevant post, he notes his suspicions of the Zona v BC argument; suggesting that one of the two is scum. He also says that we shouldnât be focusing about assassins (the whole BM thing) since they donât matter too much (which we all know now).
âHere's my supergenius plan: lynch the least active player, it's the quiet ones you gotta watch!â
He follows through with what he says here in his voting, as noted earlier.
Then, he reasserts that we shouldnât worry about assassins. After this, Caller calls him out for having a âmafia-likeâ post that is really vague, non-committing, and not contributing.
Responding to Callerâs calling him out (=D), he writes a pretty aggressive post, saying BC is either âwasting his time or scum,â also saying that either Ace or Caller is scum, and accusing Caller of âtrying to be good cop.â
So this post reminds of his earlier post, saying that either Zona or BC is scum â it seems he likes comparing two guys against each other (bad grammar, you know what I mean).

The next related thing we have is Inc calling Osmoses out. Inc basically accuses him of Caller did, which is not really contributing at all despite an okay amount of posting. âall of his posts are emptyâ in a sense.
On a side note before his next post, Radfield mentions his early Zona post, and points out that Osmoses was bandwagon-ing a little (following BM) in accusing Zona. But I guess, even though Radfield was the DT, he never got to check anyone, so this isnât that big of deal, just a pro-townerâs analysis.
Osmoses takes awhile to respond to Inc, but he finally gets around to it, saying âI'm really sorry, but I AM a newbie and I AM confused, I don't know what to say. I'm just trying to be active and participate,â so his response to Inc is to reassert his failure. But he follows up with some good analysis of BC/Zona, calling Zona âtoo aggressiveâ and somewhat scummy. The analysis seems pretty good, he picks out a lot of subtle things from Zonaâs posts. He concludes that post with an agreement with Rageâs non-FoS plan.

His next couple posts are mysteries to meâ¦ something about a bleeding tampon, and then a comment on Aceâs trolling. The second one is irrelevant, but the firstâ¦ idk lol.

---Night 1 comes---
His first night postâ¦ laughs at how jpak was an assassin. â¦..o.o. Iâm not sure why itâs funny. This to me, is a little suspicious, but not too too much.
His next post has some analysis. He once again defends Rage, and calls out a few other inactives. He then bashes on Caller, saying that Caller might be scum. He labels tree.hugger as town âfor sure,â and calls Zona out again for being inactive, calls out Cynan as well. He agrees with KF91, and says Day 3 is a good day to start analyzingâ¦ which to me is either stupid or suspicious.

Conclusion
That was mostly summary, lol. Osmoses seems to have a accusation habit of pairing two guys and saying itâs one or the other. Heâs been particularly favoring Zona, which makes sense to me â once you have someone in your notes and they donât do anything to change it, they â¦ stay there. I might be guilty of the same thing in this game actually. Perhaps the most suspicious things from him are his slight inactivity, his complying with Callerâs request exactly and replying with a very aggressive post, his attachment to Rage (or so it seems), and his siding with postponing analysis / doubly lynching until laterâ¦
I donât really know what to make out of his posts. Maybe someone can look at what Iâve written and come up with a verdict. Osmoses has a feel suspicious things about him, most of them I just listed, but overall, heâs offered up some good analysis and, despite a little inactivity, hasnât done anything that screams scum to me.

ggglglgl.

On April 21 2010 13:54 DarthThienAn wrote:

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This is true, but we have two situations as I see it:

1) Ace is mafia and tricking us - we lynch Caller and see that he's lying, so he's just given himself up. It's still pretty early in the game, so this would be pretty stupid, a 1 for 1 trade cutting the mafia down to 6 with only 3 KP.

2) Ace is the DT and telling the truth and pro-town. We lynch Caller, he's red, and ... all is well. lol.

On April 21 2010 13:57 DarthThienAn wrote:

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In light of this, and Ace's alleged RC on Caller, would it be appropriate to double lynch today (Day 2)?

In doing so, we catch either of them if they are lying, or else we kill two scum, which seems like a great result to me.

+ Show Spoiler +

On April 21 2010 13:43 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:

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Well I can't hate on you for getting analysis out there, since it's what everyone needs to be doing instead of posting useless garbage. So props. But some things you said about me simply are, well, factually incorrect or misguided.

I already explained my inactivity in another post. Real life shit; I am a busy man. Here I am posting and making up for lost time though.

I'm not sure why you think it's suspicious that I'm contributing to the town. Look at all the players that aren't contributing anything. It sounds like your concerned that I'm contributing, but not contributing enough. That's fine, I'll try to be more direct in my posts. I never bothered posting any sort of town plan in this game, largely since this game is not about specific town plans - e.g. Bodyguard plans or Assassin plans - but largely about town activity and discussion, which is why i was trying to post helpful information and thoughts about general playing strategy that will best benefit the town. Additionally, why do I have to post aggressively to be town? I have never been a particularly aggressive player, except that one time in Mini Mafia I where the town lynched me and I was the medic and I got really mad (jerks).

You say I was never suspicious of anybody..., right after a quote of my DT list of people I thought were suspicious.

I'll add a couple more:

Caller
Abenson (strangely quiet)
meeple - same as others
RoL - based on my previous analysis
Scaramanga - probably pretending to be useless

anyway i ask people to continue the incog idea of player-beneath-you analysis. hopefully this will get some inactives out of the woodworks when they see their name in the thread.

When I was going through Osmoses's posts, I noticed that too... Abenson hasn't really done anything since the beginning of the game.. pretty suspicious.

On April 21 2010 14:00 DarthThienAn wrote:

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Yeah I considered that, but it's way too ballsy. It's too early to do this kind of move IMO. It's just not beneficial to trade 1 for 1 for 1 (Town, Mafia, KP) and leave only 6 mafia left with 3 KP. And now that we have two alleged DTs, and hopefully medics to cover them, getting two mafia right now would put us in a great spot.

On April 21 2010 16:20 DarthThienAn wrote:
...what just happened in these last few pages?
aside from the nobodycares spam.

On April 21 2010 16:40 DarthThienAn wrote:
Yo BC, I apologize if I seemed like I was derailing the thread. I read this:
+ Show Spoiler +

On April 13 2010 11:22 flamewheel91 wrote:

Double Lynch

Usable three times per game, the town majority lynches two people instead of one. This means on the next day everyone gets two votes to distribute between two different people. The double lynch is activated by voting for it in addition to a player (or players if a double lynch is currently activated). The vote must exceed half the number of players voting that day. IE: If there are 20 players voting then the town needs 11 votes to use a double lynch. Double lynches may be voted on starting Day 2. Double lynches may be used on consecutive days. Players cannot place all of their votes on one player when a double lynch is in effect. If there is a two-way tie for second place, only the person with the most votes will be lynched.

as a, "You can double lynch on day 2."

On to more important things,
I think we stick our plan to lynch Caller, and lynch Ace tomorrow if Caller turns up green/blue.

I don't know what to make of the BC / RoL situation lol -__-

On April 21 2010 22:36 DarthThienAn wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +

On April 21 2010 21:27 d3_crescentia wrote:
Good morning; sorry if this seems a bit rushed, but I've got less than 10 minutes before I need to leave and I probably won't be posting until the evening again. Most of my post will be some quick thoughts on KF91/Scamp/Inf/Darth, as I said I was going to do last night. As for the current situation before us, given Ace's Detective claim last night and his recent claim that Caller checked red this one is actually a fairly simple decision, unless Ace is bullshitting us all.

Analysis of KF91:
+ Show Spoiler +

Summary of arguments:
- Agrees with early double-lynch; actually gives some solid reasoning as why to do so
- Against BM's plan
- Picks out Jugan and Osmoses for later analysis
- Thinks Caller is mafia due to his erratic behavior
- Analysis made on infundibulum as possible mafia

Comments: Everything he's said so far seems to be logical. Follows Incognito's lead in agreeing with Osmoses and doing next-person analysis (but then again, so am I). I agree with his analysis on Inf, and so we should keep an eye on him. Fairly pro-town player IMO.

Brief thoughts on Scamp, Inf, Darth:
+ Show Spoiler +

- Scamp - posted quite a bit in the early game, dropped off the face of the planet later. Picked out TheLardyGooser early but hasn't said much since. Keep an eye out for him.
- Inf - See comments above. Also, Inf has posted since then, and I think he's in the clear for now.
- Darth - Bandwagoning early on, but makes some okay posts. I'd say he's actually green and just making common newb mistakes, except my perception of him is colored since I happen to know him. Don't think there's much to worry from him though.

Of these three, I'd say we should be most careful of Inf, then Scamp, then Darth. There's nothing much to suggest that any of them are scum.

Didn't really bandwagon imo =P. I've been pro day1-lynching-inactive since it was brought up I think. I didn't know who to pick at first, so I voted for myself, then RoL, then jpak. I guess it's bandwagon-ing in a sense, but I was just trying to get rid of an inactive so that we could have some information from it.

Anyway,
someone else vote for Caller so that we can solve this "mystery" already. I think we're at 15 votes.
And also, vote for a double lynch so that we can use it tomorrow. Unless the vigilantes go crazy tonight, we're probably gonna need it / be able to make use of it.

ZBot

194 Posts

April 20 2010 01:27 GMT

#36

Radfield

+ Show Spoiler +

On April 16 2010 19:06 Radfield wrote:
Please sign me up guys

On April 17 2010 08:47 Radfield wrote:

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I'm really looking forward to this. I've played mafia before but only in person, never on a forum, and never with quite so many roles. I've been checking out the Mafia XX thread just to get an idea of how it all plays out. Should be fun!

Quick question about the roleblocker. Does role blocking mean that the person targeted loses their ability for the night? Also, can you elaborate on which roles are or are not allowed to PM.

On April 18 2010 01:38 Radfield wrote:
OK, so we have 30 townies and 8 mafia, and the mafia have a KP of 4

What is the general strat here starting out? I've checked out a couple of the other mafia threads, but with no elections how do we proceed on day one? With zero facts known, and no one trying to garner votes, on what criteria do we base our lynching decisions? Inactivity? Strength of player? Obviously suspicious posting but it's likely difficult to tell Town from Mafia as yet. I'd love to here if any of the veterans have a basic plan already.

On April 18 2010 06:17 Radfield wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +

On April 18 2010 06:09 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:

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Yeah, we should plan for worst case scenarios - but we all know that the game will 95% not be over on day 3. This plays into the timing of double lynch. I think we should wait no longer than Day 4 to do it (meaning we vote for double lynch on Day 3). However this is all dependent on the events of the previous days. If we're in a hole, might want to start it on Day 3; or if we catch some reds via DT or they scumtell.

Often i find these time limits for town are a useful thought experiment but rarely if ever do the games actually play out that way

Day four seems like a long time to wait to use our first double lynch. We get three of them this game, and if people are talking about town possibly being in trouble by day 4 or 5 we may not get to use them all. That would be unfortunate. I'm not necessarily saying we should use them super early, but we should at least think about it. The danger would be trimming down our numbers even more if we're wrong, but that danger always exists with lynching. If we did vote for the double lynch, and then were unsure of who to take out, the option also exists to avoid a majority vote and not lynch a second person(although i'm not sure that makes sense to waste it like that). Also, is that even allowed? Can we vote for the double lynch and then end up only lynching one person?

On April 18 2010 06:18 Radfield wrote:
I guess really what i'm saying is, if we're trying to up the town KP, lets make sure we get to use them all. That's all.

On April 18 2010 06:24 Radfield wrote:

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Did people miss this post? It's confirmed that only the mafia can PM.

Show nested quote +

I think what BC is saying is that at some juncture the DT would reveal himself and his list of greens/blues/reds and create a group of confirmed townies.

On April 18 2010 06:37 Radfield wrote:

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On April 18 2010 06:32 BloodyC0bbler wrote:

On April 18 2010 06:29 KF91 wrote:

On April 18 2010 06:17 Radfield wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +

On April 18 2010 06:09 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:

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I think Radfield is right; we should use our double lynch earlier.

Although people might argue that we have less of a chance to hit one mafia with the double lynch, it also lowers the chances of hitting a blue role if we do it on day one or two, instead of waiting until day 3 or 4.

Sadly the first day its usable is day 3. :p reading is fun

Whoops. Don't I feel smart.

Anyways, does it make sense for use to vote for the double lynch at the earliest opportunity? If people think we could be in trouble early, then increasing the KP of the town early seems like a good strat.

On April 18 2010 18:37 Radfield wrote:
It seems to me that there are two ways to go about our Day 1 lynch. Lynch someone quite inactive, or lynch someone who jump out at us as being scummy. At this moment I feel like an inactive lynch is the best course of action for a few reasons. First, it makes the game more fun in the long run, as more activity equals more fun. Second, with a lot of new players in this game, I think it likely that those new players who get mafia roles will try to keep to the sidelines as much as possible(although certainly the opposite will be true for some, that at least is good for the Town because more mafia posting gives us more information). Third, if the inactive member was a townie, its not a huge loss because we need townies who post, not lurk.

Also, it seems likely that the mafia will be trying to off the strongest and most experienced players amoung us, I think it would be tragic for us to lynch one of our more active members without decent evidence and hence do the job for the mafia.

People who's posts are scummy now will likely only get more scummy as time goes on, there's no reason to rush on the first day and mistakenly vote out a solid town member.

On April 18 2010 21:45 Radfield wrote:
Enough bickering guys, lets get down to business.

Bill Murray, I think I finally understand what your plan is(maybe not though....), but I don't think it will work. The jist is that when a mafia gets put on the kill list, they will kill their killer in an effort to stay alive. Therefore, that person left alive must be mafia. But this relies on some pretty big assumptions. You're assuming the assassins will randomly use there abilities based on your list, and that the mafia will react based on the fear of the assassins. Can you give me an example where the town would glean valuable information from your plan and not just a bunch of conjecture?

Also, we so far have two people claiming green roles and yet hinting that they're probably the miller. I may be new to the game, but is there really a scummier thing to do? Or is it just so obviously scummy that no sane mafia would ever say it?

On April 18 2010 22:15 Radfield wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +

On April 18 2010 21:56 d3_crescentia wrote:

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I haven't spotted these; who are they? Millers don't know that they're Millers. It's beyond idiocy to me why someone would claim it - it's just bad play overall no matter what your alignment is.

I'm not saying it means anything, just thought it interesting.

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On April 19 2010 05:51 Radfield wrote:
Well, so far it seems like we have a ton of people either inactive or close to it. Given that we need a whopping 15 votes to lynch someone, we may need to start getting some names on the table. Lets start picking names and either those people start posting or we vote them out. Does this seem reasonable?

For reference, here is iNfuNdiBuLuM list of inactives(both TheLardyGooser and nbtnbt5 have recently posted, both in support of Bill Murray's wild assassin plan)

Roffles
nbtnbt5
krndandaman
Fishball
Elemenope
tree.hugger
rebirth of legend (but he posted a lot pregame too)
RaGe
Jadefist
TheLardyGooser
Caller (wtf mate)
love1another
jpak

On April 19 2010 08:47 Radfield wrote:
I'm fully against the BM plan. I can't see how we as town can glean any useful information from it. Lets just drop it and move onto the more important issues.

For instance, whats with all the people voting in the voting thread, and not posting a single thing about it in this thread. If you're gonna vote, at least give us a reason why. We currently have 14 votes in and very few explanations. We can't just have random people throwing votes around on a whim. We will never reach a majority vote that way. We need in-thread discussion, and we need to know peoples reasons for the way they vote.

I still think the plan should be to vote off the inactives. If people have a strong case for a player then fine, post it and convince us. But so far this is mostly blatant conjecture, as it would have to be since it's Day 1. I'm far more in favor of keeping around a scummy poster then a complete non-poster. It makes the game more fun, and chances are a scummy poster will eventually slip-up. Also, we can't hurt ourselves by voting off someone inactive, we certainly can hurt ourselves by voting off a potentially strong, active player. There is a Day 1 risk-reward analysis here. By voting off an inactive player we can only win, by voting off someone active we can win or lose. Granted we could win big by voting off someone active and mafia, but lets face it, no one has any facts right now so that seems like a long shot.

On April 19 2010 09:29 Radfield wrote:

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As far as I'm concerned this is a terrible way to go about this. Don't just say "Caller's scummy". Give us some reasons, lay down some facts. As far as I can tell, both Caller and Zona have seemed legit enough for me, at least for Day 1. Why are you so quick to vote for these players when they could be an asset in the future, and when it makes much more sense to vote out some of the least active players. Lets not do the mafia's job for them.

On April 19 2010 10:52 Radfield wrote:
Here's the way I see it right now, We have two options, vote for someone who we happen to think is scummy, or vote for someone who is inactive. There is a very big problem with option 1, it takes twenty votes to secure a lynch. It seems highly unlikely that we can rally 20 votes against an active poster at this junction. Why? Because we're all just guessing, and no one can has enough info to convince anyone else. Look at the voting right now, we have 16 votes spread over 9 people. This will not work.

Therefore, if we want to be able to lynch, we need to settle on someone we can agree on. We all agree that inactive players are bad, so lets get a list and pick some names out. One thing worth noting though, we don't want to waste a lynch on someone who's going to get modkilled anyways. So lets focus on the people who are inactive in the thread, and yet still throw down a vote.

As far as I can tell, these folks still have not posted, or at least haven't posted much. However, none of them have voted either.

nbtnbt5
krndandaman
Elemenope
rebirth of legend
RaGe
Jadefist
jpak

On April 19 2010 10:53 Radfield wrote:
Lets not worry about WHO we're going to lynch yet. Lets form a plan on HOW we're going to lynch. Thereby ensuring we actually get a successful lynch.

On April 19 2010 18:55 Radfield wrote:

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OK, then lets focus on one person at a time. First off, I don't think his statements about the double lynch are particularly scummy. We were discussing them at the time, and it DOES make some sense in a way to save them for when we have better information; better chance of netting two bad guys. Mind you, i'm against the idea and think we should use our first one at the earliest opportunity.

However, what did jump out at me ealier was this post:

Show nested quote +

To my mind, Zona seemed quite legit at that point, and more importantly this was a bandwaggon vote, given that Bill Murray had stated he was voting Zona just prior. It seemed suspicious then so i noted it down.

On April 19 2010 19:30 Radfield wrote:

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No, I'm reading into Osmosis' bandwaggoning of your voting

On April 19 2010 20:37 Radfield wrote:

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On April 19 2010 19:34 Bill Murray wrote:

On April 19 2010 18:55 Radfield wrote:

On April 18 2010 07:08 Osmoses wrote:
I'm a total newbie but wouldn't it make more sense to save double lynches as late as possible, when you have solid info to go on?

On April 19 2010 05:58 Osmoses wrote:
Assassins will influence politics, trying to gear lynches in their favor against the ones they suspect to be assassins... Basically they will be the very annoying players that you can't really pin as scum or townie because they have double agendas. They may just appear confused or stupid, I mean they'd have to cook up some pretty elaborate schemes to sway the votes in the favor of someone they want killed if that person doesn't act like scum.

Its really pretty tiring trying to figure out who's what and who and why with such little information, and no clues -_- The only effect assassins have on the town is their votes and their influence, but lynching the right guy seems hard enough already, so if they do sway the vote we might just get a scum anyway... Should we really even be worrying about them? Their night kills, having only 2, will surely be spent on someone they truly believe to be an assassin, so as not to waste them, and the longer the game goes the closer the odds get to 50%. Those seems like good odds.

The more I think about it, I do get townie vibes from you because of you putting FoS onto Osmoses. Being a little more experienced than you, and take this with a grain of salt because I am not the best town player as my play always appears scummy when im green, you shouldn't read into day 1 votes because it is the random voting stage of the game. analyze the wagons after someone is dead, though, as you can see patterns emerge. I've actually found a couple people on mafiascum that way.

I am actually starting to get suspicious of you Bill Murray. Not so much from your posting, but more from what seems to be going on around you.

First Osmosis bandwaggons a vote from you on a player who I had thought seemed quite legit. Second, two relatively inactive folks both come out in favour of your assassin plan, despite the fact that no one else can even understand your plan at first, let alone thinks it's a good idea.

Show nested quote +

A few other things which HAVE jumped out at me about your posting. You keep mentioning things like: being the miller, seeming scummy when green, always being green, being an obvious townie, etc. In addition, you seem to be encouraging people not to take your voting seriously. It seems very possible to me that after having been green for a few games in a row, you can simply use that excuse once you finally hit a red role.

I'm not trying to be harsh here, and I appreciate the advice you offered about day one votes, but all these little things seem to be adding up for me. What do other people think?

On April 20 2010 04:25 Radfield wrote:
I feel like we're finally moving forward here guys. This is good. I agree with pretty much all the above posts(d3, Rage, BC, lardygooser), even if some of them seem at odds to each other. Putting down names and narrowing it from there. It's the only way we'll get our twenty votes. Personally I think the best names on the lists right now are RoL and Jpak. I think BM, Jugan and Caller should all be set aside for now, they're active at the very least and there's no twenty vote reason to go after any of them. Out of Jpak and RoL I think we should focus on Jpak, mostly because I fear RoL all of a sudden showing with a "so sorry guys, all this crazy stuff just happened and I haven't been able to post"(whether legit or not) and that it might split the vote back up given he's a veteren and all. Jpak has been around at least, but just not contributed a single thing. I think it likely he'll pop in to vote(and avoid being modkilled), but not much more than that. He's getting my vote, but if it makes more sense to go after someone else i'm certainly willing to change.

Lets keep the discussion rolling, we have 3 or 4 names we're considering, lets keep whittling it down. It would be nice to have a large consensus here, and not just scrape by with 20 votes.

On April 20 2010 04:46 Radfield wrote:

Show nested quote +

Then jump on the jpak bandwagon! We got plenty of room! At least 20 seats!

Seriously

Pluses: He's almost as inactive as RoL; Already cast a vote so he's out of modkill danger (we won't waste our lynch)

Minuses:

On April 20 2010 04:50 Radfield wrote:

Show nested quote +

Fair enough. But if he's red he adds to the KP of the mafia. So far he's doing the bare minimum to stick around. One or two short posts in the forum, one vote for Jugan.

On April 20 2010 06:23 Radfield wrote:
Where did this Rage bandwagon come from!? Was his post really that suspicious?

Show nested quote +

As far as I can tell, this post helps to focus the town down a road towards a lynch. Voting towards the "least active, most voted person" seems like a sound plan to get a lynch done. Perhaps you folks voting for Rage could elaborate a little more. I realize Caller's already posted a reason, but were that many people suddenly convinced? Caller's argument seemed a bit thin to me.

On April 20 2010 07:27 Radfield wrote:
Oh boy.....

I have no idea how to rerail this thread....

Also, if I pay 100$ can I get you to point out twice that you're playing like an ass?

On April 20 2010 07:28 Radfield wrote:
a humorous ass though..

On April 20 2010 09:45 Radfield wrote:
we're still 5 votes short. If anyone thinks an inactive lynch > no lynch, and you're not voting jpak, now's the time to do it. Maybe it's not the absolute most solid move we could make, but we surely learn more than a no-lynch.

On April 20 2010 09:57 Radfield wrote:
we're at 19 with like 2 minutes to go....

On April 20 2010 20:52 Radfield wrote:

Show nested quote +

I don't think he was trying to exclude the day 1 info, just pospone making accusations based on it until day 2.

A problem for me right now, is that most of the accusations going around are based on " x played like this before, so I think he's suspicious because now he's playing like this". These arguments might be great, but for all the new players they're a bit worthless. Yes I could go read the other games(of which I have a bit) to try and analyze posting habits, but obviously that's a huge time investment.

I'm not 100% sure what I should be posting right now. We have a bunch of posts, some which seem fishy and some not, but I simply don't have enough of a background with either the players or the game to know who really stands out. I have a list of fishy seeming players, but I doubt my analysis is particularly bang on at this point. I'm sure this is true for most of the new players in the game. The fact is, If you're town and you're a veteren, you need to really be pitching in at this point(thanks incognito) because as far as I can tell, this is the most difficult time of the game to make decisions. Caller, instead of throwing up your hands in frustration, patiently explain why we gain little or no information from lynching jpak, and explain what the better move was. Ace you may be bored and wishing for a more insightful game, but it seems like you gave up less than halfway into day 1. If you were expecting award-winning posts from a game with a large percentage of newbies, you're gonna have to step up yourself. You're only making things worse by spamming and derailing.

I realize that there's no real substance in my post as far as analysis goes, so feel free to ignore my post, and instead respond with some award-winning analysis.

Wow, the automated archive is amazing

On April 21 2010 06:49 Radfield wrote:

Show nested quote +

Main reason I don't think Callers mafia is because of the jpak vote. As far as the mafia were concerned, jpak was pro-town, possibly a blue. They had every reason to jump on the bandwagon and take him out. We were down one vote, Caller was around, and certainly could have put us to the limit. Not only did he not, but he was adamantly against the vote, and seemingly disappointed that Jugan switched last minute to put it through. Also, he's stirring shit up, and as far as im concerned, that's good at this point.

So who did vote for jpak? Presumably the mafia would be more than happy to bandwagon on to jpak in an effort to lynch a townie. I would guess a fair percentage of the mafia are in this list.

BloodyC0bbler
Fishball
Radfield (*gasp* voter number three!)
KF91
CynanMachae
d3_crescentia
Osmoses
[NyC]HoBbes
Abenson
RebirthOfLeGend
meeple
Zona
incognito
scamp
madnessman
Foolishness
Infuldubulm
Dartheinan
Lardy Gooser
Jugan

The problem is that I feel there was also a good pro-town reason to vote out jpak. But at least this gives a list of more suspect people.

Additional Bandwagonners:

Dartheinian and Lardygooser both hopped on and off the RoL train

Meeple, Infuldubulm, and scamp all jumped on and off the Rage wagon

Also, special consideration has to go to Jadefist for voting Jpak after the deadline

Very Inactive people:

nbtnbt5, Jadefist, Fulgrim, love1another, motbob

On April 21 2010 06:54 Radfield wrote:

Show nested quote +

On April 20 2010 10:25 ZBot wrote:
AcrossFiveJulys

+ Show Spoiler +

On April 16 2010 15:24 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
Sign me up yo

On April 18 2010 08:06 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:

Show nested quote +

On April 18 2010 07:58 madnessman wrote:

On April 18 2010 07:42 d3_crescentia wrote:
2) BC, we can't establish DT circles in this game because there are no PMs allowed, so this strategy seems pretty invalid as well.

I've already brought this up, and BC has replied.

On April 18 2010 06:28 BloodyC0bbler wrote:

On April 18 2010 06:12 madnessman wrote:

On April 18 2010 05:47 BloodyC0bbler wrote:

On April 18 2010 12:31 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:

Show nested quote +

I've been reading through AcrossFiveJulys posting history, and to me it seems a bit suspect. It's nothing specific in particular, but does anyone else get the same vibe?

On April 21 2010 09:27 Radfield wrote:
I've been looking through some more of the posting archive and another player has jumped out at me. iNfuNdiBuLuM. He's moderately active, but with a fairly high amount of low content posts. His larger posts are full of content, but I don't know, something jumps out as fishy to me. A combo of the play-by-play/recap content, the posting style, and the overly helpful attitude (sad that at this point I'm actually suspicious of someone being helpful...). However, I'm not familiar with his posting style, so it could simply be that. I'd love for someone who is a bit more familiar with him to look it over as well.

On April 21 2010 09:29 Radfield wrote:
Also, he's supposed to be one of the pro-stars, but despite being around hasn't contributed much lately.

On April 21 2010 09:31 Radfield wrote:
Apologies for post #3 in a row but...

medics! protect incognito at all costs. As far as I can tell, he's our best shot at really outing some mafia.

On April 21 2010 10:06 Radfield wrote:
shucks, well good job to Foolishness at any rate. I was just gettin in to it....

gl all

[/spoiler]

ZBot

194 Posts

April 20 2010 01:27 GMT

#37

TheLardyGooser

+ Show Spoiler +

On April 16 2010 22:53 TheLardyGooser wrote:
Sign me up ^_^

On April 18 2010 15:20 TheLardyGooser wrote:
I knew Bill Murray was smart, but this plan seems fool proof. Being a fool and a total newwwb I can respect that.

Altair, please leave me be when the night comes

On April 19 2010 02:17 TheLardyGooser wrote:
I still think BMs plan makes the most sense if I understand it right. I feel like it would put the mafia at a much bigger disadvantage but I am still new at this?

On April 19 2010 08:05 TheLardyGooser wrote:
I know its been shotgunned to death at this point, but I still feel like BM's plan, if not in terms of hunting down assassins, but rather in terms of a general role call. I am speaking from inexperience here, but aren't the mafia heavily outnumbered? Wouldn't a direct roll call at least be able to spread around some suspicion when we compare it to the number of each group? I feel like it would give us a pretty good start and at least let us have some idea of who to lay the hammer down on with our first lynch as there are bound to be some glaring inconsistancies.

To me anyway, the discussion at this point seems to be people flaming each other back and forth, largely due to inactivity. Again, this is my first time, but it seems counter intuitive to just flame back and forth when at this point we don't really know anything?

Lets make a plan!

On April 19 2010 08:33 TheLardyGooser wrote:

Show nested quote +

Sorry I must've missed your post, but it really didn't say anything anyway. I still hold by the fact that BM's plan, while certainly not great or long term is better than anything else suggested, and it will at least get us the 15 votes we need.

Inf had a good criticism when he pointed out that BMs plan is counter intuitive to the Assassin's mission, but it just lays out a good systematic way of tracking people down.

Your vote for me was just as arbitrary as my counter vote on you, and I fully intend to change it if we can all agree on someone.

On April 19 2010 09:31 TheLardyGooser wrote:
I think I was misunderstood on the aspect of the BM plan I thought was a good idea. I know it won't work for getting rid of Assassins, (plus you more experienced guys seem to not view them as a threat) but at this point its the only thing out there besides the flame war between caller and nai, and random selection (which at this point is statistically more likely to kill a green than a red).

Just an idea, but could some of you fire hardened TLers offer up some good day 1 town strategies that have performed well in the past? It might help to re-focus the debate somewhat

On April 19 2010 12:22 TheLardyGooser wrote:
I know this might seem counter-intuitive, but at this stage of the game with nothing but speculation, flames and no clues, taking a random shot at this point has a 79% of killing a villager. Added to that the only people being accused of being "scummy" at this point are just people who are acting like jerks, and it would be a huge mistake to potentially cut off someone who could be valuable just because of a bad attitude.

I think Radfield is right in suggesting we go after inactives that won't get the mod hammer with our first lynch. That way regardless of whether we hit red or green, we will at least be narrowing down the field of players to those who will actually contribute and make the game more fun for everyone.

For example, whether or not we may feel that Caller is being scummy, it is day 1 and none of us really have anything concrete to go on besides the fact we may disagree with him. I just feel like it would be a waste to make an unfounded accusation and get rid of someone who is at least contributing to the game at large.

Just my two noob cents.

On April 20 2010 02:49 TheLardyGooser wrote:

Show nested quote +

On April 19 2010 20:37 Radfield wrote:

On April 19 2010 19:34 Bill Murray wrote:

On April 19 2010 18:55 Radfield wrote:

On April 18 2010 07:08 Osmoses wrote:
I'm a total newbie but wouldn't it make more sense to save double lynches as late as possible, when you have solid info to go on?

On April 19 2010 05:58 Osmoses wrote:
Assassins will influence politics, trying to gear lynches in their favor against the ones they suspect to be assassins... Basically they will be the very annoying players that you can't really pin as scum or townie because they have double agendas. They may just appear confused or stupid, I mean they'd have to cook up some pretty elaborate schemes to sway the votes in the favor of someone they want killed if that person doesn't act like scum.

Its really pretty tiring trying to figure out who's what and who and why with such little information, and no clues -_- The only effect assassins have on the town is their votes and their influence, but lynching the right guy seems hard enough already, so if they do sway the vote we might just get a scum anyway... Should we really even be worrying about them? Their night kills, having only 2, will surely be spent on someone they truly believe to be an assassin, so as not to waste them, and the longer the game goes the closer the odds get to 50%. Those seems like good odds.

On April 19 2010 03:54 nbtnbt5 wrote:
What do we have to lose to try the plan out? It's not like we really having anything to base our lynchings on atm, and it seems like a reliable method of making the mafia take action.

I don`t really care to listen to the BW calls about the BM plan. I addressed this with a post a few pages back... I definetly misunderstood it at first, but I still feel it is best plan out there by virtue of the fact it is the only plan out there, so prove me wrong I implore you.

At this point, all we have is a stupid witch hunt aimed with no evidence at people who are just being unpleasant.

As it stands right now for all of the people except RoL that have multiple votes we have followed the same stupid formula.

1) They are inactive, we call them out

2) Flame war starts

3) Votes get cast

If you were red wouldnt you maybe not want to be a huge dick to everyone and make them all look at you?

I am sorry but our governing philosophy right now is, if the guys a dick he must be red.

Out of the whole thread I feel like the only people that make any sense at this point (myself included) are Radfield, and IntotheWow.

We are all dead men

On April 20 2010 03:09 TheLardyGooser wrote:
I second this.

On April 20 2010 04:02 TheLardyGooser wrote:

Show nested quote +

Reasons why this argument makes no sense:

-Its really more of a consolidation of the current sentiment than a random ``lynch him``
-It is the first attempt since BM's assassins creed to do anything cooperatively but yell at each other
-At this point there has been zero suspicion leveled at him, so why would he even try and redirect attention?
-RoL is actually the least active player, and even if we mis-lynch him it has the pragmatic effect of a) killing a lurking red or b) getting rid of a towny who is not contributing, not going to contribute and just wasting space
-Do you have a better idea? If so, lets hear it?

ZBot

194 Posts

April 20 2010 01:28 GMT

#38

Osmoses

+ Show Spoiler +

On April 16 2010 23:47 Osmoses wrote:
/in

On April 18 2010 02:03 Osmoses wrote:
Que madness:

On April 18 2010 02:20 Osmoses wrote:

Show nested quote +

Firebat > Zergling. Owned.

On April 18 2010 02:25 Osmoses wrote:
Well by then I'll be a... uh... I wanna say vulture? They got spider mines you know.

On April 18 2010 07:08 Osmoses wrote:
I'm a total newbie but wouldn't it make more sense to save double lynches as late as possible, when you have solid info to go on?

On April 18 2010 09:10 Osmoses wrote:
I'd say of course, comparing posting before and after game start can show differences depending on role.

On April 18 2010 09:11 Osmoses wrote:
I shall return with my brilliant insights when the day begins in Sweden as well.

On April 18 2010 20:18 Osmoses wrote:
Ace, if newbies weren't allowed, there'd be no games, period. Your bitching doesn't help anyone get better.

On April 19 2010 10:08 Osmoses wrote:

Show nested quote +

On April 19 2010 07:32 Caller wrote:

On April 19 2010 07:29 nAi.PrOtOsS wrote:

On April 19 2010 07:16 Caller wrote:

Show nested quote +

I had a 4th bullet but I lost my train of thought.

On April 20 2010 05:32 Osmoses wrote:

Show nested quote +

On April 19 2010 13:53 Incognito wrote:
Time to pull out the accusation gun.

Osmoses:

On April 18 2010 07:08 Osmoses wrote:
I'm a total newbie but wouldn't it make more sense to save double lynches as late as possible, when you have solid info to go on?

On April 19 2010 05:58 Osmoses wrote:
Assassins will influence politics, trying to gear lynches in their favor against the ones they suspect to be assassins... Basically they will be the very annoying players that you can't really pin as scum or townie because they have double agendas. They may just appear confused or stupid, I mean they'd have to cook up some pretty elaborate schemes to sway the votes in the favor of someone they want killed if that person doesn't act like scum.

Its really pretty tiring trying to figure out who's what and who and why with such little information, and no clues -_- The only effect assassins have on the town is their votes and their influence, but lynching the right guy seems hard enough already, so if they do sway the vote we might just get a scum anyway... Should we really even be worrying about them? Their night kills, having only 2, will surely be spent on someone they truly believe to be an assassin, so as not to waste them, and the longer the game goes the closer the odds get to 50%. Those seems like good odds.

Show nested quote +

On April 20 2010 06:42 Osmoses wrote:
Better get yourself another tampon, you're bleeding all over the place.

On April 20 2010 06:48 Osmoses wrote:
OK that did made me giggle... But I'm not proud of it.

On April 20 2010 11:09 Osmoses wrote:

Show nested quote +

On April 24 2010 08:59 Osmoses wrote:
Hey all, sorry for my recent absentness, but if you read my blog a couple weeks back I lost my job and am just now about to get a new one if I play my cards right. Unfortunately I won't be able to participate quite as much from now on. I've just read up on the events following night2 and here's my input:

I'm onboard with lynching/vigikilling BC. If BC comes out town we'll know who needs to die next

Medics, you know what you need to do, think like scum on who to protect. Ace and RoL are obvious choices, but the reds might think so too and go for someone else. There's really no obvious choice in that regard. Incog doesn't seem to be blue, I'm not seeing anything that looks like inside knowledge on his part, but as a townie with intelligent things to say (if he's not just a clever scum) he's still pretty valuable.

On April 24 2010 10:46 Osmoses wrote:
OK so the question now is... Can we trust RoL's role check on BC? I should think so, otherwise he'd have put himself at an awful risk.

On April 26 2010 01:07 Osmoses wrote:
Wow... BC a miller too? Seriously, what are the odds? I don't know, but unless we're all millers the odds of Ace getting lucky twice in a row must be infintesimal, he's a detective for sure. His analysis doesn't seem very brilliant (though to be fair I suspected both Caller and BC too :p) but he does have rc, so all medics on Ace and... Then what? What do we do with our next double lynch? KF91 has been convincingly pro-town throughout this game and his arguments make sense, so how about his list? Scara, Fishball and Scamp? We can't just go for Ace's rcs, we'll be dead long before we get half of them.

If everyone role claims now, does that really help us? What's stopping mafia from role claiming too and confusing us to hell? We don't know how many blues there are and as previously stated confirming role checks takes at least 2 days (check, kill, confirm).

Suspicion that a character once thought trustworthy may not be trustworthy!

On April 26 2010 06:40 Osmoses wrote:

Show nested quote +

Hmm oh yeah, forgot about that. The last line was just my way of sharing a funny youtube vid.

On April 27 2010 03:50 flamewheel91 wrote:
I may still be on the bus at 9:00, so bear with me if the post isn't up. I'll get it up as soon as I get to an outlet/source of internet.

On April 27 2010 03:59 Ace wrote:
Yea too many people playing the "I'm new so its an excuse to be useless" card. Get rid of them all

On April 27 2010 13:36 Osmoses wrote:

Show nested quote +

On April 26 2010 07:03 d3_crescentia wrote:

I was hoping you'd come back and post something that would be a bit more thought out, but alas - my hopes were dashed, and you're going to have to go on my super special awesome list.

First of all, I'm not entirely sure we should actually double-lynch anymore. We don't seem to have any candidates; after tonight's deaths we will have SOME additional information to work with but I'm not entirely sure if it's ideal for double-lynch. Secondly, we have some pretty accurate information already about whatever blues we have left in the game - 1 Medic and 1 DT (Ace), likely no more Vigilantes/Hatters and MAYBE a Veteran. The point shouldn't be to individually check everyone but to narrow down our list of suspicions and hammer those people. We can potentially solve conflicting blue claims by double-lynch; then we can narrow down between our jpak list and those that claim townie.

What happens if it draws out our medic into the open (assuming he/she survives tonight)? Tomorrow we'd look at an 11-6 situation knowing two people are clear at the very least. Ace has been pretty good at finding scum but at this point we need to watch who's pointing fingers and who ISN'T pointing fingers at whom. This is the kind of approach that I was thinking about taking in regards to analysis, but I've been holed up in bed for most of the day, and there's actually a good amount of time before the next Day comes up.

I seriously don't have time for this (I got the job, yay!) but guh, analyzing 16 steps down from me, d3:

Uuuuh, OK so posting stuff that's not brilliant is scummy, obviously I can't be that I'm either lazy or unable to provide an in-depth analysis at the time of writing. True enough we don't have any sure-fire candidates to lynch, but look at the townie numbers: we're dead if we don't do something drastic. It's like when the clocks running out on a losing game in hockey and they replace the goalie with another player; you take a shot at winning by risking to lose harder.

If you want to get better evidence against someone before lynching, you better hurry up.

I call suspicion on d3 for going against this very obvious hockey-logic. This reads to me like an attempt to slow down the town. Sure the risk is great, but we're one foot in the grave already. Are you a helping hand or a mailed fist? (props to anyone getting the reference)

We can be fairly sure that we have some blues left, this much is obvious, what are you getting at here? The truth of blue claims will become evident in the course of the game, the way I see it anyone can call blue (that includes townies that want to draw fire as well) and Ace could've either wasted a rc on him/her (dead now I see so moot point) or you can make an assumption on the credibility of that person based on post history. I'm not blue, but if I were a medic I would've protected Ace as he was a high priority target (due to his bonafide rc's) if nothing else then to make the mafia waste hits on him. But wifom and all, you never know how they're gonna think so you could protect anyone really, they might as well go for the least likely target on account of it probably not being medic blocked. Mafia want fast kills before enough people have died to provide decent information, but they also want to kill off trustworthy outers. It's anyone's call who the medic should defend, tell me again how he/she would risk getting drawn into the open?

We're checking who's pointing fingers, but also who's not pointing fingers. That's everybody. It doesn't matter where the fingers point as the mafia are probably mixing in some accurate accusations with their fabricated ones. No offense, but are you perhaps being purposefully useless?

My verdict: shit, I don't know, I know from personal experience nonsensical posting doesn't necessarily mean mafia, but this isn't d3's first game, is it, so he ought to know better.

On April 27 2010 13:42 Osmoses wrote:
Oh, seeing as how BM did d3 I realize I should have done intoTheWow... I must be more tired than I thought. Ugh..... I might do be able to analyze him tonight or tomorrow, but I can't promise anything >_<

ZBot

194 Posts

April 20 2010 01:29 GMT

#39

jpak

+ Show Spoiler +

On April 17 2010 00:00 jpak wrote:
Signing up.

On April 18 2010 09:00 jpak wrote:
Well I'm excited for this game! this is my first Mafia game, and let's have fun.

On April 18 2010 09:17 jpak wrote:
See you on day 1.

On April 19 2010 23:03 jpak wrote:
Uh, What did I miss?

ZBot

194 Posts

April 20 2010 01:29 GMT

#40

motbob

+ Show Spoiler +

On April 17 2010 01:27 motbob wrote:
Sign me up, dawg. I've got a good feeling about this game.

On April 18 2010 11:24 motbob wrote:
If I were an assassin, I would not follow through with this plan. I would try to create as much chaos within the town as possible. I do not see an incentive for assassins to follow along with this plan since it makes them targets for mafia hits on night 3.

On April 18 2010 11:41 motbob wrote:
To clarify, I would kill a random target instead of killing my assigned target.

On April 18 2010 11:57 motbob wrote:

Show nested quote +

I think I'm losing confidence in your plan by the minute.

On April 20 2010 15:39 motbob wrote:

Show nested quote +

from lynch

On April 21 2010 15:49 motbob wrote:
I don't want to get modkilled, so here I am, posting. I think town is pretty much on the right track so there is no need to delve into anyone's posts or anything yet.

On April 22 2010 10:32 motbob wrote:
Actually, from my experience on mafia, I would say that the mafia are probably evenly distributed among both lists. That's generally the optimal strategy on votes that don't matter. If someone under vote pressure were mafia, the optimal strategy would be to have the most people possible voting for that mafia member without actually lynching him... or, if lynching is inevitable, to have everyone voting to lynch.

But here's why the "evenly distributed" strategy works best in this case. Let's say that RebirthOfLeGenD, IntoTheWow, and I are discovered to be mafia. Suddenly there are three names on the top list. Pattern recognition is a skill that every human possesses, so the rest of the people on the "voted for Caller" list will immediately be under suspicion, even though the rest of the mafia members are in the "didn't vote for Caller" list.

Also, it's clear that Ace is a detective.

On April 24 2010 10:46 motbob wrote:
....I don't think this game is winnable unless we hit on every lynch. 14 town and 7 mafia. Mafia have 3KP in a best case scenario. If mafia just skip likely medic targets and hit random town, and we miss a lynch, this game is basically over. What makes this worse is that (imo) we don't have any likely lynch targets. So town is in roleclaim mode IMO. What does everyone else think?

On April 24 2010 22:10 motbob wrote:

Show nested quote +

Your analysis on me is poor. In between those two posts, the mafia that Ace fingered turned out to be a miller. Three townies were modkilled before night one. Five non-mafia players were removed from the game during night one: two townies and three assassins. RoL's role check alone shows us that assassins can be helpful to town.

Nine non-mafia players were eliminated, and zero mafia members were eliminated.

After these events I make my second post. It is a massive misrepresentation of my posting to note that my posts came one after the other, but fail to mention that they were three days apart.

On April 27 2010 19:01 motbob wrote:

Show nested quote +

I am not entirely sure what I can say to be "damn convincing" of my innocence. Every day, we've had a DT come up with a mafia target. Votes have basically cast themselves. There has honestly been zero reason to be really active so far, and today is the first day where I see myself doing a lot of analysis and getting into a lot of arguments. It is absolutely true that the only analysis I've done was disparaging Bill Murray's plan (since no one else seemed to be able to articulate why it was so bad of a plan.)

Anyway, the fact that I've been voting with the majority should not incriminate me or clear me of suspicion. I think that should be obvious. Why on earth should I need to explain my votes? In fact I DID explain my vote on Day 1 and you're using it as evidence against me lololol.

Analysis later.

On April 27 2010 21:31 motbob wrote:
Analysis on madnessman:

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Like a lot of people, including me, madnessman brings up the possibility that Ace is lying and is actually mafia. I don't think this really casts much suspicion on him... but then again, I'm biased.

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On April 24 2010 16:45 madnessman wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +

On April 24 2010 14:41 Ace wrote:
Remaining players list

BrownBear
d3_crescentia
KF91
iNfuNdiBuLuM
BloodyC0bbler
Scaramanga
Bill Murray
Fishball
RaGe
Scamp
Ace
meeple
Korynne
Falcynn
nbtnbt5
IntoTheWow
Incognito
nAi.PrOtOsS
Osmoses
motbob
madnessman

With 7 Mafia currently after these 2 are scraped off that leaves 5 scum in a 19 player game. That's pretty decent odds if we had enough useful players. Alas, we must do things the hard way.

Jpak's voting list:

The first 12 (remember jpak needed 20 to die)

BloodyC0bbler
Fishball
Radfield
KF91
CynanMachae
d3_crescentia
Osmoses
[NyC]HoBbes
Abenson
RebirthOfLeGend
meeple
Zona

The bandwagon was started by a scummy player with ridiculous logic all game.

Next set of votes:
Incognito
Scamp
madnessman
Foolishness
iNfuNdiBuLuM
DarthThienAn
TheLardyGooser
Jugan

So let's just step back and think for a second. We've got scum starting the wagon assuming RoL was right about his RC (and I think he is because BCs reaction was so scummy) and 2 confirmed Mafia at the end. Ok now lets combine both lists in order taking out dead players and replacing in subs. Keep in mind that the real meat of this is the votes coming after after RoL because the 3 votes before him were all non-scum. Don't worry about the guys in the beginning just yet. I'll take of that because I know most people are lazy so I'll collectively give everyone else one simple task.

New list:

BloodyC0bbler
Fishball
KF91
CynanMachae
d3_crescentia
Osmoses
meeple
BrownBear
Incognito
Scamp
madnessman
iNfuNdiBuLuM

Looks so much simpler now huh? 10 players! With 2 about to be gone!

So now we're down to these 8:

Fishball
KF91
CynanMachae
d3_crescentia
Osmoses
meeple
BrownBear
Incognito
Scamp
madnessman

^_^. Sooo how does this all work? Simple. I want the town to go back and check out the posts->votes of Incognito, Scamp and madnessman right before the train on jpak was started by BC. Check all their posts around that time and then slightly right after the lynch. If you find anything scummy point it out. This is not meant to accuse them of being scum right off the bat. This is meant for tomorrow when the role claims come out

.

As for the people in the beginning of that list I'll take care of it for now. If I don't die tonight I'll illustrate how we break that list apart even easier.

In answer to Ace's inquiry about the voting train on jpak, my rational at the time was such...coming out of a mafia game where there were only 9 players, having so many players this game seems like there is an overwhelming number of opportunities for mafia to hide. In the previous larger games that I've participated in, many times I didn't suspect people who were mafia at all, for the mere reason that they scarcely posted and completely slipped my mind. Thus my reasoning was that if we're going to allow a player to be completely inactive in this game, if he's mafia, he'll be able to continue to hide, and if he isn't mafia, he isn't helping the town at all, allows the true mafia to hide unnoticed, and will throughout the rest of the game attract suspicion and deter us from focusing on the true mafia... Also, with the lynch system working on a 'majority vote,' if the town doesn't lynch anybody at all/a player who hasn't posted, there is no incentive for mafia whatsoever to even post/be active because there is no THREAT or cohesiveness from the town..

I did take into account that in all the mafia games I've participated in, day one lynches have been unsuccessful at pinpointing mafia. But at the time I thought there seemed to be more to gain than to lose by not lynching him. Of course with all the modkills that are putting strain on the whole "numbers game," it's meh now.

I'll be accessing le zbot archives and posting more in a bit.

Posting this because it's one of the few posts he made that weren't one liner jokes or discussions on technical matters.

Show nested quote +

Posting this because he's supporting me

Also it's his last post in some time, made three days ago, on the 24th.

I cannot draw a conclusion on madnessman. He's showing neither scum tells nor town tells. Well, that may not be entirely true. In my experience, someone who's only posts with content are on technical matters or general mafia game theory are usually scum. People like that are "contributing without contributing," pointing out indisputable facts instead of speculating about whether or not specific people are scum or not. If you look over madnessman's post history, not once, I think, has he said "this person looks town to me" or "this person looks mafia."

The reason I don't think this is necessarily a scum tell this game is because I've been doing the same thing! I've already explained why, too: this game has had a lynch target confirmed by either a DT or an assassin on most days. No need to make leaps of logic if town is getting sure lynches.

Anyway, I definitely would not recommend madnessman for a lynch today. Surely there are better targets.

On April 28 2010 03:08 motbob wrote:
I'm not buying the argument that Scara is scum and not just a dumb townie. His posting habits on other parts of this website are not so different from his posting in this game. It is not enough to say "screw it, he's not contributing to the game so it doesn't matter if we lynch him." There has to be some specific reason that he is scum.

Pulling the rookie card does not mean you are scum! I pulled the rookie card in my first couple games, when I was town.

Please do not rush to lynch a townie simply because he is an unproductive townie.

On April 28 2010 07:26 motbob wrote:
OK I'm going to change my stance from "scara is probably noob town" to "Scara is definitely noob town and lynching him would be a really bad idea." I need to find an alternate lynch target...

On April 29 2010 01:56 motbob wrote:
I don't really have a choice as far as voting for Scamp. I'm getting a massive town (of the noob variety) vibe from Scara and a neutral vibe on Scamp. So, yeah.

On April 29 2010 10:06 motbob wrote:

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This is a dangerous generalization to make. You have to be able to distinguish between noob town and mafia. What you described could be either.

That said, he's a waaaay better target than Scara. Here's hoping he flips red.

On April 29 2010 10:20 motbob wrote:
oh what

On April 30 2010 11:05 motbob wrote:
TT

GG

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