TL Mafia XXII Archive - Page 3

[QUOTE]On April 28 2010 13:36 BrownBear wrote:
[QUOTE]On April 28 2010 08:41 Incognito wrote:
BrownBear. If you want reasoning, you can have it. Three important posts about him.

[QUOTE]On April 22 2010 03:43 BrownBear wrote:
Ok. Wow. Reading this was intense, and this is far far deeper and more elaborate than any Mafia game I've ever played before (although, like Korynne, I've never played on a forum before, so maybe that has something to do with it.) That said, here goes, with a little mini-analysis of what seems to be the biggest story of the last 20 pages or so: Ace vs Caller.

I find the Caller bandwagon to be slightly weird. It seems that people have jumped on the caller bandwagon largely due to this post by Ace:

+ Show Spoiler +

...although Caller really hasn't helped his cause much by being BM about it. However, the only real proof we have that Ace is his word, plus an (easily fakeable) pm from flamewheel. Of course, he still could easily be a detective, as he said, but then that begs the question: why did the Mafia not kill him on night 1, and go for Radfield instead? I have not seen any evidence that the Mafia knew somehow that Radfield was a detective - except, of course, for another post by Ace:

+ Show Spoiler +

...which doesnt exactly implicate Radfield as a detective, but... it's just very very strange to me.

It's not really enough for me to stick my neck out for Caller, as he's pretty obviously today's pincushion, and honestly, people have been lynched in Mafia games for less that this. However, it does make me suspicious, so here's my recommendation:

Lynch Caller today, and see what his role was. If he does turn out to be scum, then I hereby retract all the nasty horrible things I said about Ace in this post, with my most humble apologies. However, if he's innocent... I for one will be targeting the guy who seems most responsible for his death.

Now to prepare to have my argument cut to shreds [/QUOTE]

First post about the Caller/Ace situation. At first, this sounds like a post that supports Caller's lynch. It seemingly says to trust Ace on Caller unless Caller turns up green, which is perfectly logical. However, why does this require so many words? If you look at the underlying tone of this message, it looks to plant seeds of doubt on Ace's credibility. BrownBear a) questions why Ace is still alive if he is truly a DT, b) mentions how Ace's DT check is "easily fakeable" (he could forge a pm from flamewheel, which is in fact, illegal, but whatevers), and c) finds it "interesting" that Ace mentioned how Radfield (a dead DT) was critical for the town. Lets unpack.

Questioning Ace's DT alignment is a good move for the mafia. They know Caller was innocent, so by questioning Ace's alignment, they could prepare to say "see I told you" when Caller flips green and lynch Ace the next day. Furthermore, BrownBear downscales the validity of Ace's rolecheck, saying that it is virtually unprovable. While we did see BC also make a similar attack and BC was town, the other parts of BrownBear's post show that BrownBear's logic is different. BC was relying on previous (and widely known) metagame tactics to lynch the DT as the best course of action for the town, while BrownBear simply doubts Ace's checks because they are "unprovable". Whether or not you agree with the BC's proposed strategy, at least he provided one. BrownBear, on the other hand, does nothing of the sort, and simply attacks Ace's validity without providing a logical underlying reason. The reasons he gives are that there is no proof. BrownBear's post has direction or basis in logic. It is merely a doubt post. In addition, BrownBear brings up Ace's post where he tells the medics to protect Radfield, who is the only hope for the town to win. Why does he bring this up and only say that "it is very very strange to me"? By saying this, BrownBear is trying to implicate Ace's role in Radfield's death, without actually explicitly attacking him. Why does BrownBear mention all the above points? It doesn't make sense if he were town. As a townie, its obvious that if Caller flips green, Ace is BSing and should be lynched. There's no further need to place doubt on Ace. Unless of course you're mafia trying to get brownie points.
[/QUOTE]

Ok. So that was my first post of the game. I was questioning Ace at that point because back then, we actually HAD no evidence that Ace was DT and that he had rolechecked Caller (see, I didn't know you couldn't fake PMs until you told me just now. Sorry.) Given the information I had, which is thus:
-Ace claims Caller red, and says he's DT.
-Ace's evidence: I rolechecked him, and I'm DT cause of this PM (which I didn't know wasn't fakeable).

From that standpoint, is it really so hard to believe that I was somewhat suspicious? I mean, I friggin said, "hey, I'm not entirely sure Ace is telling the truth, so let's lynch the dude he wants us to, but if he flips wrong, then we know Ace is lying." The other stuff I said was my evidence for doubting Ace, so forgive me for trying to back up my point that I wasn't entirely sure Ace was DT, as opposed to just saying, "I'm not sure Ace is telling the truth, so lets lynch Caller and lynch Ace if he's wrong." If I had just posted that instead of providing analysis, I'm pretty sure people would have jumped on that and said, "wow, oneline posts, no substance, OMG SCUM." So what you're saying here is, I'm in a lose-lose situation. Wheeee.

[QUOTE]On April 28 2010 08:41 Incognito wrote:

[QUOTE]On April 23 2010 03:31 BrownBear wrote:
[QUOTE]On April 22 2010 15:32 meeple wrote:

Well... you have the same role, so his acting can still give hints into what you are. However it kinda sucks for you because you can't really defend his actions.
[/QUOTE]


Eh, so it goes. I'm not really going to try to pretend I knew what was going on in his head.

So, having looked at the required reading, here goes in terms of analysis:

BloodyC0bbler:
Started the game offering a lot of advice to new players, and specifically telling medics NOT to protect him, Ace, or Caller. With Caller out, that leaves him and Ace that the medics are NOT supposed to protect. That, to me, is kinda suspect. If you analyze it on the surface, it's a totally selfless move that makes him look townie, but honestly, why even bother making that move? He could have just as easily said nothing about whether the medic protects him or not, and it wouldn't have been suspicious at all. Plus, now, with it having been pretty much established that Ace is DT, having medics not protect him is just silly. On the other side, to be fair, BC probaby had no clue Ace was a DT when he made that post, so it's not entirely damning evidence, it's just minorly suspect.

Gives some more early game advice, drops into some oneliners, then starts a bandwagon on RoL, then jumps off immediately once it gets rolling. What? He claims its under the pretense that he's starting wagons on inactive players. As this is my first time playing, I don't know if this is actually a legitimate strategy, but, hey, y'know, whatever. He then follows up with some decent analysis of random people's posts, which all seem to end in confirming them red. Kind of odd that he yells at meeple for doing nothing but confirming people red, while at the same time pointing the FoS at many people himself - the only difference is he mixes it up by also adding advice to newbies/random oneline comments. So... I feel something's off here.

I am pretty sure he's not Townie, based off the fact that he seems to have a clear agenda here, and he's picking people who I don't think are mafia, and accusing them to be red. But at the same time, he's also (so far) working by himself, and doesn't seem to be anti-town so much as he is anti-specific people. Thus, I'm going to call Assassin.

RebirthOfLegenD

Not nearly as active as BC, but that could mean anything, he claims he's been very busy. Most of his posts are 1-3 liners, with the exception of some longer defense posts. What I don't like is that ok, he has accused BC of mafia, but he presents NO evidence besides "rolecheck confirmed LOL". I fail to see anywhere where he claims to be a DT, or have any rolechecks whatsoever, so if someone could point me to that that would be greatly appreciated. Beyond that, he doesn't seem to be taking the game very seriously, his posts have little to no analysis, and he appears to have given up on the town. All this points to SCUM

Bill Murray

I will analyze Bill Murray in a little bit, as I have class now and there's a lot of reading to go through.[/QUOTE]

Second big post by BrownBear. First off, we know that before this post, RoL already claimed that he checked BC as a MAFIA. So why does BrownBear say BC is an assassin? First off, let us first assume that BrownBear is town. A logical reason for calling BC an assassin, is naturally, because he doesn't believe RoL is a DT. Which he does post. So from a town-point of view, BB's actions make sense here.

Now let's assume that BrownBear is mafia. Well, given from the previous debacle with Ace/Caller, the mafia might be afraid of millers and would be moved to consider attempting to lynch the unconfirmed DT before he is confirmed. The mafia knew that RoL wasn't mafia, and therefore was either a green BSing, or a DT/Assassin. Because of the risk of getting (another) confirmed DT, it makes sense that the mafia would want to kill RoL first. BC was a suspicious target anyway, and they could probably get him lynched after that, even if RoL did not turn out to be DT/Assassin. And if RoL turned out to be DT/Assassin, it would be all the more easier to lynch BC the next day. Win-win for the mafia.

Now we have two reasonable explanations here. Both make sense, and are reasonable interpretations. So I guess we'd have to look elsewhere for more information.
[/QUOTE]

Again, this is a situation where you seem to be just assuming the worst from me. Is it impossible for you to realize that my logic? There was only one detective. His name was Ace. Thus, it made the most sense to me that RoL had to be BSing, as I wasn't expecting him to pull the bonehead move of actually REVEALING that he was an Assassin. I mean, somehow it worked out for him, but hey, y'know, that's how Mafia goes. That was my logic, and it still makes sense to me.

The second part of your argument hinges on supposed Mafia-me thinking that RoL might be a detective, thus getting him out of the way early would be worth it. Here, sir, is where you trip up. I'm pretty sure that we can all be agreed on this point, even Mafia: THERE ARE NOT 3 DETECTIVES IN THIS GAME. We knew the identity of 2 already (Radfield and Ace), and 3 would be overpowered in favor of the town. Thus, RoL could not have been a Detective. Even if we thought he was, and decided to try to bump him off because of it, this leaves another gaping hole in your logic: Why did he survive the night, if I was mafia and thought him a potential DT?


[QUOTE]On April 28 2010 08:41 Incognito wrote:
[QUOTE]On April 25 2010 03:41 BrownBear wrote:
To be fair, end of zBot and now = time when BrownBear was running a show, and sleeping.

And I apologize for the lack of content recently, I have been very busy (as light designer/lightboard op for a show, these last couple of days have been hell). I will start adding some more content, because I am most definitely not scum, and to be taken as such would be kind of a failure on my part, and would really screw the town over.

Also, btw, I no longer doubt Ace, he's definitely a detective. I said as much already too.

So let's start analyzing people on Ace's list, because I like it (apart from myself being on there, obviously ) But first, I still owe an analysis on Bill Murray, so I'm going to post it now, sorry for it being so late.

So to begin, Bill Murray

Early on, not really that much content. Accuses Zona (me) and RaGe of scumminess, Zona for relative inactivite, RaGe for saying "hey let's just bandwagon RoL day 1". Then BC, who is probably scum, jumps on saying "motbob is also red" and BM thinks he's blue.

(correctly) labels tree.hugger as assassin (damn man you are good with the analysis).

Claims himself to be green, laments he's never red.

calls for a lynch on KF91 (who coincidentally, just wrote a list above fingering Bill Murray as potential mafia, as well as me again)

Continued random posts with minor analysis until we get to the first "Ace is a detective" argument. Here it gets interesting. He provides analysis with all the options, then agrees, "you know what, ace is probably a detective." Turns out, he's right. Woo Bill Murray.

After that, he's been very very quiet. A few one liners here and there.

So I am inclined to think he's town. He's very very good with his analysis (2 correct so far, whereas I have 0), and he has yet to accuse random people without some evidence, except for at the beginning of the game. Thus, I'm gonna say town.[/QUOTE]

BrownBear makes a defense post, where he acknowledges that he now thinks Ace is 100% DT (whereas before he was was still doubting), and throws up a poor analysis of Bill Murray. Absolutely trash analysis, which, contrasts with his previous analyses. (At least his BC and RoL analysis had some decent logic). The one sided, incomplete, and grossly mis-representative analysis of BM makes me think that this was thrown up in a hurry to avoid suspicion. Very shady here.

What else is wrong with this analysis though? It focuses on Bill Murray as a good analyst and says that "he has yet to accuse random people without some evidence, except for at the beginning of the game". First off, Bill isn't a good analyst, and even then, the material that BB focuses on is that BM correctly guessed an assassin and a DT, which are not the most pro-town of activities. Analysis on mafia is very different than speculation on blues, and here, BB seems to want to want to make us think that Bill is useful because he has good analysis. Furthermore, BB also says that the fact that Bill hasn't random accused recently makes him more pro-town. While it may be true that Bill hasn't done that recently, he hasn't even been active recently either. BB's attempt to play up Bill's analysis skills and dismiss his early random accusations (scummy behavior) reminds me of a mafia trying to defend another mafia. Which brings me to another point: Unlike other candidates right now, BrownBear's lynch gives us information for tomorrow's lynch. If BrownBear flips red, we get a juicy lynch target for tomorrow.
[/QUOTE]

Ok, you got me here, I admit the analysis was thrown up in a hurry, and wasn't very good at all. However, are you really insulting my intelligence that much to say that I would throw up a sycophantic post about a fellow mafia? That's such an obvious giveaway.

Also, you say if I flip red, you get a juicy lynch target tomorrow (BM). However, think about this: You CANNOT afford to have me flip green or blue at this point. You have to be right. And there are several people here acting far far more scummy than me. They should be our targets, not me.

[QUOTE]On April 28 2010 08:41 Incognito wrote:
[QUOTE]On April 26 2010 14:06 BrownBear wrote:
[QUOTE]On April 26 2010 09:53 BrownBear wrote:
I think it's safe to assume, for now at least, that all the millers are dead, because more than two would be really unfair to us (especially if we're out of Vigis). There's at least one Veteran left in the game though, because none have died yet, and the role wouldn't be up there if there were none. Hopefully the mafia decide to target him tonight, cause that would put us up 12-6 instead of 11-6, which isn't that much better, but at this point I'll take any advantage we can get

ONWARD WITH ANALYSIS!
Fishball

Well... there's actually not too much to analyze here, like KF said already, most of his posts have little to no substance. In fact, all of his posts have little to no substance.

But, there's information to glean from that. He's pretty inactive in terms of actually helping the town - the most constructive post he posted was "I'm bored, analyze me" after which people actually started noticing how little he's contributed. After which, he had the option to be more active and assuage some of the suspicions cast on him, which he has so far failed to do. This is all pretty scummy, but he still could be a bored townie... until he started again questioning Ace's Detective-ness. Ace is, at this point, pretty much 100% Detective, two correct predictions in a row (we have to count the millers as correct because they do flip Mafia to rolechecks) is nearly impossible to pull off. Thus, I say, you good sir are SCUM, and i say we lynch him at sunrise, unless Ace flips someone else as Mafia for sure.[/QUOTE]

As an addendum, I would also say that even if my analysis is false and he isn't scum, he's done nothing helpful for the town at all (not even analysis), so... the only downside is one less Townie, I suppose. And that's a worst-case scenario. I'm still sticking to my guns that he's Mafia.[/QUOTE]

People have stated that this is scummy because it is a preemptive defense. That is true, but there's more to look at here than just that. As I have already told everyone before,

[quote]And when you state your reasons why you are voting for someone, don't hide behind the cover of following someone or not having enough information. Own your analysis (even if its stolen from someone else). Don't cushion yourself with fluff words or distance yourself from the analysis. Embrace the analysis, and pretend its yours and you'll be fine.[/quote]

While I wrote this to address the problem of ppl justifying their votes by just blindly following someone, the same principle applies to analysis. Own your analysis. Don't hedge your possible error. Adding fluff words to distance themselves away from their analysis is something that scum do to attempt to flee accountability if they're wrong. Justifying your analysis by saying "but oh, if he's town, he's useless anyway" is a great way for you to hide if you're mafia. Sure BrownBear, you could have done this even if you were town. But given all the other things you've done, that possibility does not seem too likely. Luckily, this statement also gives us direction on what to do tomorrow if you flip red. It tells us that we should probably not lynch Fishball.
[/quote]

Man, people are sure jumping on my paranoia there. You must be, what, the 3rd or 4th person to mention that?


[QUOTE]On April 28 2010 08:41 Incognito wrote:
One more thing, the icing on the cake:


[QUOTE]On April 26 2010 23:07 BrownBear wrote:
[QUOTE]On April 26 2010 22:41 Scamp wrote:

I asked Brownbear if he's preemptively defending himself because I find it very odd that he would take the time to defend himself since A: a wagon hasn't even started on him and B: he's more worried about saving his own ass than catching mafia.
[/QUOTE]

I would dispute that. I'm concerned about a wagon starting on me because it would be a massive waste of time, and this late in the game we cannot afford to be lynching non-mafia.

I added on what I said because I meant to say that second part before, but forgot to until later, and didn't want to edit my post.[/QUOTE]

This is a BS response. Before he even acknowledges the fact that he preemptively defended himself, he tells us why he's concerned about getting bandwagoned. That wasn't the question. And it looks bad when you defend yourself on a question on why you're defending yourself when you haven't even been attacked yet.

Summary: BrownBear is scummy and should be lynched. Yes there are other scummy people out there. But unlike other alternatives, BrownBear has said enough that we have leads tomorrow if he flips red. So we get a bonus here because we off a very suspicious character while also learning information. Win-win for us.[/QUOTE]
Ahhh, fuck it, I'm not even bothering anymore. I don't really need to answer, for myself anymore, because I'm gonna go back to this line you said early on:

[QUOTE]On April 28 2010 08:41 Incognito wrote:
b) mentions how Ace's DT check is "easily fakeable" (he could forge a pm from flamewheel, which is in fact, illegal, but whatevers),
[/quote]

Fine. So forging a PM from flamewheel is illegal in this game. That's totally fine. I'm gonna throw up the one flamewheel sent me, in that case, since Ace did it already, I'm assuming it's a legitimate strategy:

[QUOTE]flamewheel91 wrote:
-----------------------------------------
Original Message:
Excellent, you will be replacing Zona, who is a veteran. I'd suggest reading the OP, current thread, and old games to familiarize yourself. Sites such as mafiascum.net are also good for learning to play mafia. Good luck to you and thanks for joining on such a short notice! I will be making a post in the thread announcing your arrival.

-----------------------------------------
Original Message:
I would like in, if this is still available!

-----------------------------------------
Original Message:
Hi again good sir,

Once again we need a replacement, so if you still want in here's your chance


So, by your own logic, you cannot now lynch me. I may be targeted by mafia for this, I may even have incurred flamewheel's wrath and be modkilled. So be it. But I will be DAMNED if the town's gonna waste a valuable lynch on a blue character.
[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE]On April 28 2010 13:37 BrownBear wrote:
Bah, I fucked up the quote tags, but the point is still there. Have fun, kids![/QUOTE]

[QUOTE]On April 28 2010 13:58 BrownBear wrote:
Really? Fuck. How come Ace did it earlier and got away with it?

I guess I get modkilled, sorry about that. I assumed that since Ace had done it before, it was ok.[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE]On April 28 2010 14:07 BrownBear wrote:
This is what I saw:
[QUOTE]On April 20 2010 06:46 Ace wrote:
From: flamewheel91
Subject: Your Fate
Date: Some Random Day
Welcome to TL Mafia XXII aka kill yourself or live trying!

Your role is: Failure

Every day you will be forced to read the thread full of idiots discussing things that gets them no closer to winning! They will randomly bandwagon each other, call Day 1 a crapshoot and an excuse not to scum hunt and then go down in a big ball of doom.

Powers: You are a Detective! You also have 3 nukes.

PM flamewheel91 if you have any questions about your role or the meaning of life. [/QUOTE]

[QUOTE]

So that's my defense I guess. I mean, I can't really choose to argue if fw decides to modkill me, and this is pretty obviously faked, but when I was skimming through the archives way back when to catch up on the game, it looked legit. Not really an excuse, but either way, that's what I gone and done.

My sincerest apologies.


*Goes out into field, starts flying kite with key attached near the top*[/QUOTE]