EPTTL Mafia XX
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Incognito
United States2071 Posts
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On March 10 2010 06:22 Foolishness wrote: Sign me up. Questions: Will bus driver be notified if anything happened to the people he switched? (this was mentioned before but you didn't answer) I assume if a bus driver switches someone who was going to be killed onto someone who was medic protected, that person won't die correct? If a mad hatter places a bomb on person A, and bus driver switches persons A and B, will B now have a bomb? If so will the mad hatter be notified of this? If a mad hatter has a bomb on person A and dies during the night (thus person A should die) yet bus driver switches person A and B, will A still die or will B die? No, the bus driver is not notified. If a bus driver switches A, who is being killed, and B, who is being medic protected, then yes, A won't die. But B will. That is correct, B will now have a bomb. I'm not sure if the mad hatter is notified. I'll get back to you on that. All actions happen at the same time. So the switch still happens. B dies instead of A. | ||
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On March 10 2010 06:44 Incognito wrote: No, the bus driver is not notified. If a bus driver switches A, who is being killed, and B, who is being medic protected, then yes, A won't die. But B will. That is correct, B will now have a bomb. I'm not sure if the mad hatter is notified. I'll get back to you on that. All actions happen at the same time. So the switch still happens. B dies instead of A. Sorry for the late response, but here's how it works. In the mad hatter example above, The mad hatter is notified that B now has a bomb instead of A. Another Example: C is a DT and checks A. D is a medic and protects B. A and B are switched. B is hit by the mafia. When the day post is made, C is notified that: B is a (B's role). D is notified that: Congradulations! You have successfully saved Player A! | ||
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On March 10 2010 12:55 Qatol wrote: How much for me bullying flamewheel into modkilling everyone who doesn't vote for you? It's win-win-win! You get elected, I get money, flamewheel gets to use lightning! Its actually a lose-win-win-win. Like I've said, I have already claimed Bus Driver. So all I need to do is swap myself and Bill Murray. No campaigning necessary. | ||
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On March 10 2010 13:08 Abenson wrote: I'll stay silent! :D Mafiya | ||
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On March 10 2010 14:00 johnnyspazz wrote: oh i had a fat brain fart, i forgot GF is chosen among the mafia but yeah it should be 6 then right? 5 mafia + bus driver? Who said there's a mafia aligned bus driver? | ||
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3. We know that one critical mafia strategy is spamming the thread when someone accuses the mafia or posts some critical information. We also know that mafia like to post trash posts everywhere to appear active. Townies are disgusted when they have to wade through a bunch of trash to look for information. This also contributes to mass inactivity. When looking for mafia, one good place to start is by looking through their posts. This is a headache for the town when there are hundreds of posts that are scattered all over the place. However, we know that the one person who has the easiest access to your posts is...YOU. So when you're done reading this post, you are going to help the town organize its information. So from all the above facts, it is logical that we should create a centralized database for everyone's post organized by name. So what I'm going to do is that I'm going to make another thread in the mafia forum titled The Red Army Archives. In that thread, you will copy all of your posts from this thread and compile them into one post. What will this thread do? It will force you to help us expose you if you are indeed mafia and are making trash posts. It will help us look through your posts if we think you are fishy. It will give all the players the ability to quickly find information from trusted players without the clutter of spam. In essence, it helps us organize information by person and helps us separate the spam from the good information. If there are any objections to this plan, please voice them here in the thread. If not, you have no excuse not to comply. If you wish to ignore this, by all means, you're free to join the top of my suspect list. Pasted for reference for those who didn't watch last game. Link to the TL Mafia XX Archives located here. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + So that I can use my bus driver powers and switch myself with the winner! | ||
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On March 11 2010 03:31 BloodyC0bbler wrote: there is most likely only 1 of each blue role, i would keep that in mind. 2 meds could perma protect someone in this game, so most likely only one. Dt's have unlimited rc's so most likely only 1. Hatter has 2 kp (with bombs) so most likely is only one hatter, or 1-2 vigi's as having both roles would have too high a KP (would be more than the mafia in one night). Possibly 1 vet, millers 1-2. I am Incognito and I approve of this message. | ||
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Rolechecks: There's 1/25 GFs. But there's two known BGs who are pointless to rolecheck, so its really a 1/23 chance. Since 5 mafia can run for office and the GF can be picked after the mafia knows if they will get office, there is little point to rolechecking the mayor/pardoner. If there was one office and elections were determined randomly, there is a 20% chance of having a mafia mayor. Add another office, and your chance increases. Add a mafia busdriver, and you can't really do that. So in the end, BC's contention that elected officials have a greater chance of falling into town hands because false because the GF is picked. Which means that any mafia elected has the possibility of becoming the GF. BG protection. As BC said, BGs should get protection if we are to have invincible elected officials. In order for us to determine impartially who the medic should protect, we need to make it random. If I announce in the thread however, it may encourage flamewheel to alter the results to screw us over (or not?!). Since we don't know who the bodyguards are yet, as long as we determine now who the medics will protect, it doesn't matter who chooses. So right now, I'm sending pms to 4 people. All four of them will contain the same information, either first or last. After elections, everybody who got a pm reveals it and medics protect which either the first or last BG based on the BG's positions on the signup list. Questions? Objections? Vigilantes. Stay secret. Mafia bus drivers means you can't announce your hit in thread to confirm yourself. Town-aligned Bus Driver strategies. You may think that you need to be gosu to use this role effectively. But you don't. You don't even need to know the actions to use this role. The mere threat of Bus Drivers will cause the mafia to second guess any attempts to kill prominent players. One way to use Bus Drivers effectively: Swap a prominent player with some random player who you think won't be targetted. This effectively makes the prominent player invincible for one night. If you are a bus driver, do not reveal whether or not you have used up your 2 actions. To be effective, you need to keep the mafia unaware that you could switch out prominent players at any point in the game. This means that medic lists are not necessary. Medics are free to protect the chosen BG. Archives. For the sake of the town, please use it. It will help us sort through the inactives and will help us when you die. About newer players getting elected: Its a nice democratic idea. But its only worked once in the past. And that was with SemiOldGuy. Other than that, the benefits of the Mayor/Pardoner positions are that you are almost impossible to kill by the mafia. The town would benefit the most if the Mayor/Pardoner were strong pro-town players. An invincible pro-town Ver or MBH is more scary than an invincible DT. Especially with this format with bus drivers. If we could get a strong player who happens to be a DT, well, then that's even better. But strong players that the mafia will be afraid of > blue roles. | ||
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On March 11 2010 09:23 citi.zen wrote: For balancing purposes I guess some "strong" player(s?) will be Mafia too. If elected likely will choose to be GF and green- so theycan't be asked to perform role specific roles. So we need to be a bit careful. Then again lynchings can't be stopped by bodyguards, so office is less powerful for mafia early on to have an elected official. Late game the extra votes coul matter. Yes, some strong players in all likelyhood will be mafia. But it is still good to have strong elected officials. Elected officials are under a lot of scrutiny. They also usually take on a very active role in town affairs. The more they're on the spotlight, the easier it is to catch them if they are mafia. On March 11 2010 08:25 Fulgrim wrote: + Show Spoiler + On March 11 2010 05:12 BloodyC0bbler wrote: As for mayoral elections. I, BloodyC0bbler, am running for office. With the setup of this game, and the fact elected positions can be RC'd, the elected positions are far more likely to end up in townie hands. This is a good thing, and I believe it is in our best interests to make sure town can get in. I believe that I would be a good candidate because I have many games worth of experience, a few as an elected official, and others where I have have helped in the pinning of reds. I believe that from this experience I will be able to help the town quickly and hopefully bring about a swift end to the mafia. The Plan: The plan is simple. Whoever is elected (in this case I would love it to be me), but regardless, whoever is elected. The dt or dt's will both check the elected officials. I would say if your a dt and numbered 1-12 on the list, check the mayor, 13-25 check the pardoner. Instantly we have information. If they are a blue role you write it down. If they are red, speak up to someone (possibly wait a day to find a green person in a check). Reveal the findings, person dies. If they are green, keep them on a seperate list. Soon as you get two greens, RC them, and tell them who you checked and start a circle. If you get blues. Keep that info to yourself until you need it proved. If you find a dt, make them check someone (most likely one you've checked to confirm), medic prot someone, vig hit someone, etc... Anyone who flips red dies. For all those who are not a dt. Constantly update your posts in the archive thread, and carefully analyze peoples posting behaviours. If you think something is a tell, or feel they are scummy, rather than just point a finger, really sit down and prove it. But be aware that if you cause the death of an important player and they flip town, you will prob quickly follow. Medics, protect the bgs with your life. We will randomly pick one from the list of two, and then tell you to prot them. Past protecting the bgs, no one talk to them in PM's, IM's, or IRC, period. They are not confirmable, do not associate with them. They can talk via thread, feel free to respond to them here, do not tell them anything. Conclusion: This game can be won very easily if we play it smart. I believe outside of my general plan to play, the reason I should be elected is I believe I will represent a threat to the mafia, which means they will have to actively try to remove me, which will give themselves away. If they don't I will continue to strengthen the town, and effectively force them to GG. Looking over the rules for the game, it looks like pardoner isn't going to play that much of an important role this game, its more of the mayor that we have to worry about. The mafia want to have the mayor role, and the only way they are going to get it safely is through their godfather. I think its probably safe to say that no "ordinary" mafia are going to be running for office. I'm surprised you say this. Pardoner is generally considered the more powerful office for mafia. Three votes is big, but a pardon can be more devastating if used near the end of the game on a double lynch day when both top candidates are mafia. The mayor can be held accountable for his 3 votes, and they can be tracked throughout the game. The pardoner however, will most likely use his abilities at one critical moment, which will come as a surprise to the town. We can't let that happen. On March 11 2010 07:39 Foolishness wrote: I highly doubt that the mafia is already organized to the point where they got a guy running for office right now. It usually takes them a bit to decide what their plan is and who's going to run. I'd watch and see who comes to run later in the day. Why do you say this? Role pms were sent out a while ago, long before the game started. 8~ hours is enough for the mafia to get organized. Plus, a strong player candidate probably would have run regardless of his role. I don't think we can make any assumptions on mafia organization for running for office at this point. | ||
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On March 11 2010 09:34 CynanMachae wrote: Also, I didn't really understand that part with the first/last for protecting BGs, maybe I'm just not reading it right or something, but I don't understand what you mean  Also, on a side note, pushing further Incognito's analysis about the chances of having a mafia elected, assuming a proportionate number of people run for office (20% mafia-80% town), with 5 people running (1 mafia 4 town) we have around 40% chance of electing a mafia as either mayor or pardoner (moving a bit toward 36.66% the more people that run, and having a much higher chance with less people running for office) After BGs are picked they are announced. So in the signup list, we find those two players and note that one of them is before the other. If "first" is picked, medics protect the first BG on the list, if not, they prot the second. No, don't think too much about precise chances. I was just saying this to illustrate why its wrong to think that mafia will be discouraged from running for office. On March 11 2010 09:44 L wrote: So you're saying don't DT check the person with 3 votes who can't be killed because he could be the GF. Why does that seem retarded to me? Oh let me tell you why. Day 1 passes 2 people are voted in. If mafia attempt to run, they have the ability to put a single player in. The threat of DT checking prevents them from running more than one competitive option. Given that the good players in this game are limited, they're likely split up. I know that I'm not red, so that probably leaves either you or BC as the mafia candidate. One of you will probably be GF. Over the past many games I've realized that the person who first starts pushing the GF as a method of destabilizing town is probably the GF himself. Last game, for instance, Ace made repeated reference to the fact that he wanted to 'prove himself' through shooting. It was a pretty obvious self reference. When I asked called to be put back in, without even seeing the game I told him I was killing Ace, but the game was fucked and over by that point. In past games where I've been GF i've similarly relied on it as a method of painting other people as uncredible. I generally ended up being able to do wacky shit like get fucking medic or DT mayors killed off because i'd point to a mistake in someone's reasoning then go "LOL I FOUND YOU OUT GF HOLY SHIT" and then get them bussed. So given that, The mayor/pardoner NEED to be checked on the basis that it proves that at minimum ONE is legit. If ONE at the least is legit, then you can start some town building. Especially under certain circumstances. So yeah, DTs please check Mayor/Pardoner, and please make me one or the other (i'd highly prefer mayor so that I can kill bill murray). There's also another way to use bus drivers; you can use the town aligned bus driver after claims to assure that you have accurate DT checks. In doing so, you skirt pretty much the entire possibility of mafia redirecting your checks AND protect important players. Given that mafia aren't likely to hit their own members (unless knowingly bussed), the target/fake dichotomy is key. Anyways, vote for me. L, your general concept is accurate, but the presence of a bus driver complicates things. In the past few 30~ player games, we've had 6-7 mafia with 3 KP. This game we have 5 mafia for 25 players with 2 KP. Given that flamewheel does have some legal advice, I'm almost certain that the mafia will have a bus driver. With a bus driver, the mafia has the threat of preventing the rolecheck of an elected official. Which casts doubt onto the candidate regardless of alignment. Fortunately, if A gets checked and is swapped with B, the DT will get back: "B is a (B's role)" instead of "A is (B's role)". (I was originally considering making it this T_T). So any diverted checks won't confuse the town. Still, when we find out that one member is legit, we don't know which one. So we can't really build a town circle. However, you did say "especially under certain circumstances", so I'll wait till you describe those before I make a judgment there. I don't get what you mean when you say this: "the person who first starts pushing the GF as a method of destabilizing town". Could you please explain? Can you elaborate more on this second way to use bus drivers? I'm assuming you mean that once the bus driver is confirmed, DTs use swapping to check a key player in order to bypass a potential swap from a mafia driver? | ||
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On March 11 2010 10:26 Versatile wrote: ermm, ace was innocent last game so that example actually goes against your argument. Ah so you must understand? What does "pushing the GF" mean? | ||
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On March 11 2010 10:30 Versatile wrote: all this talk about checking the mayor and pardoner is useless. DTs: you need to decide who you think is most scummy when the election is over; mayor or pardoner. then you need to look @ the vote lists, and decide who you believe to be most scummiest there. the mafia will most likely run their GF, and at least 1 or 2 of them will vote for the GF and they'll show up as red. all of this talk about checking is useless. Maybe we should save it until after the election is over so we don't tell the mafia what to do. | ||
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On March 11 2010 10:47 Abenson wrote: Reading the posts above, I have come to conclude that the town does indeed need a pro-town mayor/pardoner, whether they be blue or not. Therefore I propose that all the veterans make a few posts explaining their reasoning about how this game will work, and to also give the more inexperienced players (like me) someone to vote for. My first post already gave a bunch of thoughts on the different roles. As for the game overall? Well first of all, the inclusion of bus drivers means any switch means that we can't really trust the information at hand. For example, usually successful medic protections produce 99.99% confirmed townies, but if the medic notices that his protection has been switched, he can no longer trust this information, for the bus driver may have switched the prot + hit onto a mafia member. There are few mafia members and very low KP. Expect not to have many blue roles. We're going to have to use good old fashioned behavior analysis here. Although we have plenty to talk about. Particularly the new bodyguard mechanic and bus drivers. This thread is so dead right now, its kinda disappointing. Ace?! Chezinu!? | ||
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Compromise? | ||
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On March 11 2010 11:12 L wrote: Yeah, hence why Ace's actions were misleading. But the issue is that while he looked like the GF, he wasn't fooling anyone but the town. In the end he got shot for it. Not even remotely. Mafia can grab both spots, put the goon in the mayor role, have him swing around with his 3 votes for a day or 2, then have the GF pardoner gain credibility by pushing the lynch of the mayor. Then lategame comes, we're in a lylo situation and... oh shit, we can't lynch because he pardons. The reason why they can't is the threat of having DTs check both, yet people are here saying "well, its useless to check". Wrong. checking is the threat itself, and there's a 100% chance that you find someone legit in either mayor or pardoner. If the GF goes up, what role does he take? What if his counterpart is blue and gets confirmed through role usage? Can the GF have his team hit the BGs in order to take out the confirmed protected blue? If he does, he needs to kill both BGs or reveal a goon (or just reveals a goon), then he needs a GOOD reason for why HE isn't dead the next day. Either way, the threat of checking both elected positions is massive, especially because if a GF doesn't run, then you have a set of DTs and protected blues that have tools to confirm each other. A medic mayor, for instance, who blocks a hit is a huge "oh shit" moment for mafia. Letting two potential blues have that position is also huge. Additionally, there's the question of 'what blue'? Who does the GF take? If he's a safe role, why would he run for mayor? If he's an active role, he needs to lie carefully and can be found out if he tries to claim. And that's another point; Pretty much any blue that gets elected is probably going to claim immediately. So the GF can't fucking putz around. You guys simply don't see how powerful having a blue office holder that can be checked is. Qatol was shitting bricks about it earlier, which is why the BGs are public, but we can abuse that too. Just wait, champs. Think for a bit and build a strategy given our game format; its highly abusable. Uh a bit confusing here. But what happens if the GF just picks green? Nothing to prove and nothing to hide. How do we abuse that instance? | ||
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On March 11 2010 11:45 L wrote: Why the fuck are you running for mayor as green? If anyone is doing dumb shit like that I will drive the lynch bus straight down your face. These are confirmable spots; we can't confirm green beyond 'not goon'. We can confirm medic. We can confirm DT. We can confirm Driver (to a certain point). The only reason you'd want to take green into the mayorship is by asking to die the next day as a method of verifying that you're legit and allowing a controlled claim to go through. Even then, I think we've had a grand total of one person try that and he didnt' try that, he feinted. If you take the position that mafia's only going to run a single candidate, running as green seems even stupider; Mafia NEVER fail to get their candidate in if they want him there. EVER. So the idea that you'd step in to stop another mafia from getting in is absolutely retarded; you're taking the spot from a blue because you want to be cute and go "i pardon xyz, he's town for sureeeeeeeee" or throw a few extra votes around and pretend you're more important now that you aren't 'just' green. Lol ok. Now you make sense. Now I get why you want offices checked | ||
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