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Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
Given there is a SK the sandroba hit was probably real. Paperscraps' vig claim was real which means the SK must have doublestacked on either Palmar or Jackal. We are at 6/14 with two scum (probably based on balance, is this likely) and a SK. If we miss-lynch today we lose. Half the players left should be on your suspicious list. I think Snarfs is town, I am town. That leaves three lynch targets in Decon, Bluelightz, Toast and AKCT. Filters how we come. | ||
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Bluelightz
Indonesia2463 Posts
3-2-1 split isn't good. Here is the possible resuslts if we lynch scum today 1-1-1(1 kp town, 1 kp scum) 2-1-0(1 kp scum, 1 kp SK{but if the sk has not been shot yet it will be 2-1-1} | ||
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TheToast
United States4808 Posts
On March 10 2012 12:11 Probulous wrote: Wow  I guess this confirms the existence of a SK then. Just wondering, what makes you so sure there isn't a Mafia vig? That is still a distinct possibility.... I'll still go with what I said before and say we need to proceed as if there is an SK, but there is still the chance there is not. Unless you know something specific.... On March 10 2012 12:23 Probulous wrote: Decon that epic reads post from Snarfs is why I think he is town. It is pretty logical though I disagree on a few points most importantly it is transparent. Given there is a SK the sandroba hit was probably real. Paperscraps' vig claim was real which means the SK must have doublestacked on either Palmar or Jackal. We are at 6/14 with two scum (probably based on balance, is this likely) and a SK. If we miss-lynch today we lose. Half the players left should be on your suspicious list. I think Snarfs is town, I am town. That leaves three lynch targets in Decon, Bluelightz, Toast and AKCT. Filters how we come. Again, what makes you so sure SK double stakced on Jakal or Palmar? If the SK exists, they could have chosen to not submit a night hit. Strange that you would jump to conclusions.... Given that the SK would be pushing scum for lynching all game, it would be really easy to appear townish..... FOS: Probulous Re-read this man's filter people..... | ||
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Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
 Because they wouldn't have shot sandroba then would they? | ||
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Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
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Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
Yes I am assuming that the SK shot every night but assuming otherwise makes no sense. Yes I am assuming that sandroba was really shot but gain his claim makes no sense otherwise. I wasn't convinced before because I couldn't be 100% certain of Paperscraps claim. I can't believe that after so many days working this out you come to different conclusions? Simple question what would you need to be convinced there is a SK? | ||
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TheToast
United States4808 Posts
And three posts across 8 minutes? I love how you start out all calm about it then get more verbose in each successive post. Not confirmed anything yet, but this is enough to make me suspicious... Surprisingly, no one has asked the really crucial question here; why did Paperscraps get killed last night? A vig who has used his shot is not threat to scum, and if anything he was pulling a lot of attention away from the SK. So why was he killed? | ||
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Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
On March 10 2012 14:22 TheToast wrote: Why would you assume there is a double stack instead of assuming there is a Mafia vig? You jumped to conclusions really fast after the day post. Only person to have put any pressure on you so far this game was Adam, and now he's dead. And three posts across 8 minutes? I love how you start out all calm about it then get more verbose in each successive post. Not confirmed anything yet, but this is enough to make me suspicious... I'll save you some time, I'm not the serial killer. You are right that it could have been a mafia vig. I had discounted the idea because to me mafia runs a huge risk keeping him till late game, he could shot or hung before they get to use him. Plus that would require sandroba's claim to be fake. I still think that there is like 90% assurance there is a SK. It explains things better. Surprisingly, no one has asked the really crucial question here; why did Paperscraps get killed last night? A vig who has used his shot is not threat to scum, and if anything he was pulling a lot of attention away from the SK. So why was he killed? Mafia thought he was the SK? If that is true it makes sense for them to try and push for his lynch because he is a veteran (saves them shots). I'll take a look at those pushing Paperscraps yesterday. | ||
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Paperscraps
United States639 Posts
Edit: Could whoever has the quicktopic, PM me. | ||
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deconduo
Ireland4122 Posts
-Mafia have a medic. -If we lynch the SK we lose, unless there is a town vet or medic around to absorb a hit. -Bluellightz is scum: He jumped on the Sandroba BW when it was over. He posts this which is completely untrue: On March 10 2012 12:34 Bluelightz wrote: After counting math, today, we NEED to lynch the SK 3-2-1 split isn't good. Here is the possible resuslts if we lynch scum today 1-1-1(1 kp town, 1 kp scum) 2-1-0(1 kp scum, 1 kp SK{but if the sk has not been shot yet it will be 2-1-1} If we kill the SK we are almost guaranteed to lose. The only way we can win is if the SK kills a mafia tonight, which can't happen if he's dead. ##Vote Bluelightz | ||
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Bluelightz
Indonesia2463 Posts
How does Mafia have a medic(the sandroba hit?) | ||
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deconduo
Ireland4122 Posts
On March 10 2012 21:02 Bluelightz wrote: Yeah decon I realized it but didnt bother to correct sorry :| How does Mafia have a medic(the sandroba hit?) Explanation for all that: -11 town + 3 mafia would be very townsided, unless mafia had 3 PRs. As sandroba flipped goon this is not our setup. -10 town + 4 mafia is a more balanced setup, but then it would be 3-3 and the game would be over. -11 town + 2 mafia + SK would be too weak for mafia -Therefore it must be 10 town, 3 mafia, 1 SK. -Mafia must have a medic as SK hit sandroba night one and was saved. He didn't flip vet and no town medic has come forward to claim the save. | ||
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Bluelightz
Indonesia2463 Posts
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deconduo
Ireland4122 Posts
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Snarfs
Canada1006 Posts
On March 10 2012 21:02 Bluelightz wrote: Yeah decon I realized it but didnt bother to correct sorry :| How does Mafia have a medic(the sandroba hit?) It's not you posting things that are incorrect that seems mafia-esque. It's you posting things, realizing you're wrong, but then waiting for someone else to call you out on it rather than correcting yourself. You did the same thing with thinking Pandain was suspicious and then never explaining your vote switch to Paper. Care to explain this behaviour? | ||
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Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
 I have no idea where AKCT is, maybe he doesn't either? It sucks majorly that we have two lurkers at this stage of the game. I think this post of yours (Klicky) is really useful. Especially given Bluelightz's response On March 10 2012 21:02 Bluelightz wrote: Yeah decon I realized it but didnt bother to correct sorry :| How does Mafia have a medic(the sandroba hit?) As Snarfs pointed out only mafia have an incentive to hide information. Townies point out their mistakes so that others don't make the same ones. Mafia just hope that people don't notice. I am more concerned that he hasn't bothered offering any reads or any insight into other people's posting. He is still lurking despite me badgering him all game long to post so I am would be more than happy for him to swing. His behaviour does not make sense as town and at this stage of the game I can only assume he is doing this on purpose. ##vote Bluelightz | ||
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Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
AKCT I hope your head is still in one piece cause it would be nice to have your input. Blulightz, any words at all? This place is like a morgue  From phone | ||
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Bluelightz
Indonesia2463 Posts
I think me & AKCT are town, I have a fainting read that Snarfs is too....... I don't really know who to Lynch. As an answer to TheToast's question, I think that Paperscraps was killed because today LYLO, mafia were afraid that Paperscraps would push Deconduo, what do you guys think of this? For some odd reason Deconduo stands out too me I'm not sure, but I think There should be 1 Town and maifa/sk in AKCT & Snarf as well in TheToast & Probulous. | ||
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Bluelightz
Indonesia2463 Posts
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Bluelightz
Indonesia2463 Posts
Sorry for triple posting. | ||
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