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On April 14 2012 20:26 Xatalos wrote:
I haven't said I have 100% confidence in my cases. Indeed I have said things like "ArcticFox is 70-80%" Mafia or "yomi is 90% Mafia". That might seem like over-confidence or exaggeration, but I don't mean the percentages as a scale from zero to 100%: if I say someone is 50% Mafia, I have a neutral read on him, and 50-100% Mafia means likely Mafia. So with yomi being 90% Mafia I mean that from a scale of 1 to 5, his Mafia rating would be 4.
How about you express the percentage as a probability of someone being Mafia?
So everyone starts at 25% (3/12) and goes up or down with town reads or scum reads that you have on him; the sum of all percentages should be 300% since there's three scum members in the game right now. That way it's pretty easy to decide which lynch candidates you're comfortable with, namely everyone over 50% chance of being Mafia which I agree yomi looks to be right now.
willz I have pegged at about 45%, but I would not be comfortable lynching him right now.
I think the night is not the time to discuss one's reads in depth though, because better cases and discussion can be made when we know the results of the night actions and who flipped what. The only persons who really need to consider whom they think to be most likely Mafia/most likely to be shot by mafia should be the blue roles, because they need to decide whom they target with their actions. However, in my opinion they should do so for themselves so that scum can't know who's going to be protected/shot/blocked etc. That being said, if a vigilante is in this game I would like him to announce his action at the end of the night/one minute before the deadline, when Mafia can't react to his shot anymore.
With this, I end my night rant and won't be very active in discussion until we have good information about the results of the night actions.
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I'm awake and slightly sad at what happened yesterday. Mainly because I cannot find a way to use most of the information in any useful way. I obviously had the advantage of seeing BroodKing's flip before reading the reason why he was lynched. With hindsight I do understand his switch, but cannot really find a mob motive in any of the people jumping on his bandwagon: people surprised at his switch are clearly both mob and town... and not switching is also not a mob or town tell: even if Willz and Yomi are both scum, the bandwagon grew so fast and so obviously that scum could also hide in the non-switchers. So this lynch gives us essentially no information.
However, all of the goings-on yesterday have not cleared Willz nor Yomi in my mind. I find Dittert's post after the flip to be incredibly suspect too. I will post a better analysis just before the day deadline, so as not to help mafia in choosing their kill.
@Xatalos: if you actually looked at GoT mafia you would've seen I was pretty drunk on that friday too, lol. The only difference was that I came home in the evening and this time we went out afterwards for dinner + more drinks. I don't like what happened and wished I could've been here, but in the end I am not sure I would've acted any differently. I also see that my post was a bit ambiguous: I found willz's (initial) defense okay, but found his case on broodking lacking in substance. Of course, other people saw that and the reason broodking got lynched had nothing to do with willz's case anyway.
I don't find the possible presence of a mafia framer a good reason to not add a DT list. The framer will do what he does, and so will the DT. My giving a helping hand
@blues: I made a list, but found my advice to be so obvious that I don't think you should need it. I just want to urge you to use your own reads together with Incognito's advice for playing a blue role, which if you haven't read, you really should: clicky.
Vigis: if you are unsure your shot will help town, hold onto it for N2.
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On April 14 2012 20:40 KharadBanar wrote:Show nested quote +On April 14 2012 20:26 Xatalos wrote:
I haven't said I have 100% confidence in my cases. Indeed I have said things like "ArcticFox is 70-80%" Mafia or "yomi is 90% Mafia". That might seem like over-confidence or exaggeration, but I don't mean the percentages as a scale from zero to 100%: if I say someone is 50% Mafia, I have a neutral read on him, and 50-100% Mafia means likely Mafia. So with yomi being 90% Mafia I mean that from a scale of 1 to 5, his Mafia rating would be 4. How about you express the percentage as a probability of someone being Mafia? So everyone starts at 25% (3/12) and goes up or down with town reads or scum reads that you have on him; the sum of all percentages should be 300% since there's three scum members in the game right now. That way it's pretty easy to decide which lynch candidates you're comfortable with, namely everyone over 50% chance of being Mafia which I agree yomi looks to be right now. willz I have pegged at about 45%, but I would not be comfortable lynching him right now. I think the night is not the time to discuss one's reads in depth though, because better cases and discussion can be made when we know the results of the night actions and who flipped what. The only persons who really need to consider whom they think to be most likely Mafia/most likely to be shot by mafia should be the blue roles, because they need to decide whom they target with their actions. However, in my opinion they should do so for themselves so that scum can't know who's going to be protected/shot/blocked etc. That being said, if a vigilante is in this game I would like him to announce his action at the end of the night/one minute before the deadline, when Mafia can't react to his shot anymore. With this, I end my night rant and won't be very active in discussion until we have good information about the results of the night actions.
I think your point about the percentage counts is semantics... But whatever, it makes some sense. I'll try to remember that in the future.
It's true that better discussion can be had after the night actions are over, but one reason I want Acrofales and Willz to say something is that they were my original strong town reads. If my original feelings were correct, either of them could well be shot tonight. And if they are shot before getting to say anything, we will have less to discuss tomorrow. Being town doesn't mean you're right, but flipping town gives your opinions at least some additional weight. That's why I don't want them waiting for the night actions until posting. Also, I can read and respond to their opinions before the night actions in case I get shot myself. And if they act pro-town now, before deadline, they have a much higher chance of landing Doctor protection too. I hope the Jailer jails me though. It's a win-win for me: I can't die, and it's proved I am not a Mafia Goon (Roleblocker and Framer are harder to prove being roleblocked during the night, but if for example the Framer is lynched and it gets revealed later someone was roleblocked tonight, I'm already confirmed then - and even if I were to be Framer, then it is clear that the Detective's investigations can be trusted - I really can't see a reason not to jail me).
I agree with the Vigilante saying out loud his target at the deadline. He only has one shot, so he's just a vanilla townie after that (no point for Mafia to roleblock him anymore) AND then he is confirmed town (unless Mafia would take a HUGE risk and pretend being Vigilante like that). Shooting yomi goes a bit against this, though, because it's easier to pretend being Vigilante now... But I definitely don't think it's worth it to shoot someone else just because of that.
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A vigi should not blithely announce his kill as there's no way of distinguishing that shit from a mafia kill until the kill flavours become clearer. Analyzing night kills is generally pointless anyway, so unless the vigi hits a mafia, we can't be sure it was a kill. Breadcrumbing the action so you can later confirm it was yours (if this is ever necessary) is something completely different and a much better way of doing it.
Breadcrumbing: hiding a very short description of your action in your post can be done in the following manner: first letter of every sentence, first letter of every paragraph, first letter of every word in a sentence (hard). Encoding it in random jibberish as if you're angry and giving the decypher key later. USE YOUR IMAGINATION: e.g. if you now post a string of random jibberish, everybody and their dog will know it's a breadcrumb for something uejkaddsaa  You want to leave a trail that nobody can follow until you point out the key, at which point it is suddenly obvious (the more obvious after the key, the better). Also: don't breadcrumb your role, breadcrumb your actions.
Ways NOT to do it: MrZentor's block of code in GoT mafia (too obvious). Example of good breadcrumbs: Snarfs and prplhz in DFM2. Ignore my breadcrumbs in GoT mafia, because I was scum and didn't have to worry about mafia poking through my blatantly obvious crumbs.
If you don't feel up to breadcrumbing, keep your info to yourself. The only action that *might* be worth revealing is a vig shot, and imho, that is unnecessary too.
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In my opinion Doc should be on Acrofales. He is without a doubt my stronkest town read atm, and I think alot of people would agree with me on that.
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@Xatalos: WTF. You're not proved anything at all until you're dead. Roleblocks don't stop mafia KP. You also just roleclaimed green, btw.
The rest of your post is one massive wall of wifom and completely pointless. Just. Don't. Okay?
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Also, about breadcrumbing, keep this in mind:
11. Breadcrumbing the specific phrasing of your role PM. Do not compare the phrasing in your role PM to prove your alignment. You can claim the abilities you have, but you can't use the specific phrasing of your role PM.
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EBOWOWBOEW:
From the cheating-section of the OP.
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On April 14 2012 21:12 Acrofales wrote:
@Xatalos: WTF. You're not proved anything at all until you're dead. Roleblocks don't stop mafia KP. You also just roleclaimed green, btw.
The rest of your post is one massive wall of wifom and completely pointless. Just. Don't. Okay?
Really? I thought roleblock stops Mafia KP in this setup. Just look at this post: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=324743&user=151616¤tpage=3 (the one where KharadBanar makes his last will and roleclaims before his death) Could we please get confirmation from a host?
Ah, yeah... It doesn't really make sense for a blue to ask being jailed. But you don't know if I'm actually Jailer and just making the Mafia WIFOM into not shooting me, do you? Everything is possible. Even me being Mafia and wanting to buy a bit of credibility by sacrificing my power. I haven't announced my role yet.
I'm glad you started posting and I like your response to my criticism of being AFK for the lynch. At the moment you read very town for me, so I agree with vonKlaust that you should be protected. At least we should encourage the Doctor to protect you - even if he decides otherwise, Mafia can't risk to waste their KP on you while you well might be protected. But I don't agree about telling who to investigate, because it would be too easy to frame then.
Vigilante: yomi (preferably also explain your choice at the deadline, look at GOT where SLJ did this as well: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=321496&user=239474¤tpage=3)
Jailer: Xatalos
Doctor: Acrofales
Detective: use your own judgement
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On April 14 2012 21:14 vonKlaust wrote:Also, about breadcrumbing, keep this in mind: Show nested quote +11. Breadcrumbing the specific phrasing of your role PM. Do not compare the phrasing in your role PM to prove your alignment. You can claim the abilities you have, but you can't use the specific phrasing of your role PM.
Hahaha... I remember how Acrofales did this in GOT and got modkilled...
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On April 14 2012 21:31 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On April 14 2012 21:12 Acrofales wrote:
@Xatalos: WTF. You're not proved anything at all until you're dead. Roleblocks don't stop mafia KP. You also just roleclaimed green, btw.
The rest of your post is one massive wall of wifom and completely pointless. Just. Don't. Okay? Really? I thought roleblock stops Mafia KP in this setup. Just look at this post: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=324743&user=151616¤tpage=3 (the one where KharadBanar makes his last will and roleclaims before his death) Could we please get confirmation from a host? Ah, yeah... It doesn't really make sense for a blue to ask being jailed. But you don't know if I'm actually Jailer and just making the Mafia WIFOM into not shooting me, do you? Everything is possible. Even me being Mafia and wanting to buy a bit of credibility by sacrificing my power. I haven't announced my role yet. I'm glad you started posting and I like your response to my criticism of being AFK for the lynch. At the moment you read very town for me, so I agree with vonKlaust that you should be protected. At least we should encourage the Doctor to protect you - even if he decides otherwise, Mafia can't risk to waste their KP on you while you well might be protected. But I don't agree about telling who to investigate, because it would be too easy to frame then. Vigilante: yomi (preferably also explain your choice at the deadline, look at GOT where SLJ did this as well: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=321496&user=239474¤tpage=3)Jailer: Xatalos Doctor: Acrofales Detective: use your own judgement
Xatalos....please...for all our sakes, slow down your posting. Stop typing. No, I know you're already formulating a response to this before you're at the end of this sentence. Stop. Go back. Read your filter. Every single one of your posts has been either a parroted argument that someone else has already made, or a case full of so many logical fallacies and leaps that it's a wonder how you ever got there in the first place.
Posting a list of blue actions is not even relevant. Blues should already know what they're going to do. Having different targets for Jail/Doc in a semi-open setup where you don't even know if both roles exist (and likely don't both exist unless scum got some powerful roles too) is a headscratcher too. Beyond this, you gave no real reasoning as to *why* those should be people's choices. "Oh, I post a lot and I'm obviously town, because I say I am." is your whole reasoning to be protected. Yomi as vig shot is because "he's a distraction" -- as much of a distraction as dittert? Or even willz at this point? Yomi and willz are at about the same level in my mind -- why yomi over willz other than your "I'm sure that willz is town and yomi is mafia," statement? It's as poor as the rest of your logic.
I know you're trying to contribute, but your posting is all over the place. If I were on the scum team and you are actually town, you're exactly the kind of town I'd *want* to keep alive. Slow down, and think calmly before you post. Is this argument sound? Does it have a solid counterargument? etc.
Yomi is actually starting to make a little more sense to me as this goes on. He's been really the only one who's been saying Dittert is actually scum -- I've hinted at it, Acro and imallinson's FoS'd him, but yomi's been all over it since early day 1. Imallinson makes a big list of things picking apart Dittert's post, but the most damning things about it just scream scum to me.
First, his sudden change in tone from a meek, clueless, "is this ok?" style of posting to suddenly:
On April 14 2012 13:23 Dittert wrote:
Here's my read: you're all a bunch of idiots. Seriously.
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After 3 or less games of mafia, what makes you think your intuition is worth anything?
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From now on, I would appreciate it if everyone read every post and ignored all of their feelings. Feelings are for little girls. Use your brain.
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For the love of god, will the vig please shoot yomi or willz tonight so we can get some real info? Thanks.
Willz was jumped all over for rabidly defending himself when accused, and suddenly switching from seeming helpful to getting aggressive. Dittert has done the exact same thing.
On April 14 2012 13:23 Dittert wrote:
All I hear about is how "such and such FEELS scummy/townie to me." After 3 or less games of mafia, what makes you think your intuition is worth anything? I'll bet you FEEL like you're constantly producing SCV's too, and I bet you're in the bronze league. For everyone who saw Brood's play as "so obviously mafia/scumslip," what do you think of your judgement now? As I mentioned before, I thought Brood was just kind of bad town (or as I said, "says some really stupid shit").
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From now on, I would appreciate it if everyone read every post and ignored all of their feelings. Feelings are for little girls. Use your brain. Does post X make sense if so and so is town? What about if they're mafia? Do I see a pattern of posting between people? Remember that the mafia are coordinating with each other. Can you pick out anything that looks like coordination between 3 people? If you think so and so is mafia, with whom are they working? Can you construct a consistent and compelling story about what might be happening in the thread? Are you willing to assume that most people are just chattering townies (which is statistically true)?
Day 1, we HAVE no facts to go with. We are interpreting everything that every person posts, and we have to determine which posts feel the most scummy and run with those reads. To insinuate that you, or I, or anyone else in this game is doing something different is insulting and distracting. The first actual clue we have is "BroodKingEXE is town." Now we get to go back through BroodKing's filter and see what it means. In about 9 hours, we'll have 1 or 2 more people dead, and we'll go through *those* filters, and people who have posted about them, and start to put them together.
Saying "I was right about Brood, he was town, therefore I'm right and listen to me!" is awful logic. Go back and read the posts. Before Brood made what everyone can agree is the dumbest play of the game, nobody was voting for Brood. Even willz had taken his vote off of Brood and voted for yomi. We were convinced that one of those two were scum, and at worst we'd have more information today, and only something extremely large happening could take us off of that focus. Brood did exactly that, and that's the only reason he's dead. If he'd kept his mouth shut and kept his vote on willz, even *if* some people had jumped from yomi to willz at the last minute, we'd still have more information. yomi was up 5 votes to 4 and set to be lynched. The play made 0 sense. It still doesn't. That's why I got so pissed and left my computer last night. We gained almost nothing from a brood lynch except "well...Brood played badly."
The sudden change in tone, the constant horrible logic, and the playing of the noob card for far too long. It's time people started watching you.
##FoS: Dittert
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On April 14 2012 15:04 Xatalos wrote:
now you say I shouldn't focus on getting one player lynched.
When did I say this? Notice how when I attack you I use quotes but when you attack me you get to stand on your high horse and just proclaim facts down from the mountaintop. Please find the quote for me where I say you shouldn't focus on getting one player lynched.
Is it this?
Once you have your sights on someone you just look to confirm which is a fallacy in reasoning.
What would an innocent townie do? Not go after brood? Yet you are claiming to be an innocent townie and you went after brood. As did many others. We were all wrong. We all switched to him for the same reason. Yet you are so myopic that every possible thing I say or don't say or do or don't do will only confirm that I am mafia.
I think this is very clearly describing an attack on your reasoning style and not a call for you to stop getting people lynched. Maybe a call for you to stop trying to get ME lynched. But you have horribly misrepresented my statements in your post. Please substantiate your post with quotes like I am doing to you.
Also let's contrast these statements:
I accuse xatalos of being all over the place. He responds:
On April 14 2012 15:04 Xatalos wrote:
Why should I keep silent about my suspicions or not push the lynch of my top suspect? You suggesting I should do that seems... suspicious and anti-town, at best.
imallinson agrees with my argument that xatalos is all over the place. He responds:
On April 14 2012 19:24 Xatalos wrote:
Hmm. Okay, I can agree with the part about throwing so many suspicions so fast being a bit confusing, but what do you mean I haven't backed up my claims with any evidence?
Is this serious?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scarecrow_argument
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias
He is a dunce or a mafia intentionally confusing people. More and more I believe the latter.
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Good points AF. I also honed in on this:
On April 14 2012 13:23 Dittert wrote:
For the love of god, will the vig please shoot yomi or willz tonight so we can get some real info? Thanks.
you mean investigate? you don't kill for info you investigate for info. you kill to clear a suspected mafia. If you think we are mafia that's one thing, direct the vigi to a suspected mafia, good idea. But don't justify it by pointing out the upside that then we will know the person's role after they're dead. What about the downside that the kill could be wrong?
One could use this rational to justify shooting ANYONE.
again, pretending to be noob for too long for it to be believable.
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Okay I have to leave soon to hang out with family, but a few thoughts before I go. This is a re-evaluation of people based on what they've posted now and I have pretty much thrown out all my D1 reads for a fresh start.
Xatalos, I may have played more towny than Yomi when I was on the chopping block, but that shouldn't let you ignore me in comparison to Yomi. You made your case against Yomi but a lot of it is just different playstyle, if I wasn't trying to play so positive compared to Yomi, I'd easily be the top suspect in your mind as well. You have been tunneling on Yomi a bit too much imo without looking at others, and a lot of your case against Yomi does rely on what alignment I flip, so if you want to lynch Yomi D2, you may as well have me vig shotted so I flip town and help your case. Also, this constant talk about blue actions is extremely ironic considering that was what you accused ArcticFox in the very beginning, irony much?
Dittert, I thought before you were a newbie town since you did post this was your first game ever, now you're angry as well and for what reason? You already stated you have a RL, if you don't have time to play the game I can't hold that against you, but coming in well after everything was decided and saying, "I was right all along" seems very arrogant and without basis. It's easy to say that BroodKingEXE was town all along when all you had to do was read the Night post and confirm it. You had as much information as everyone else did about what his alignment really was, and he ended up getting himself lynched for that poor decision.
For everyone targeting my previous behaviors, I don't have time right now to respond to all of it, but when Xatalos made his case against ArcticFox, he clearly stated I am "80% confident you are Mafia". At the time, between that and Dittert, he was the most "suspicious" player on the field and the only one with a solid case against. I saw numerous people subtly agree with Xatalos's case without really posting their own opinion, aka bandwagoning. I destroyed that case and called out the people who were following along without thinking (namely at this point imallinson, but he addressed this) The reason behind looking at bandwagoned votes is that it's very easy for a Mafia when presented with a mis-lynch of a town to follow behind without having to state their own opinion because of the blatant behavior of said town player.
Acrofales made a very good case against me, I will not defend myself saying he did not. Therefore, I presume that any Mafia that thinks I have a good shot of getting lynched will jump on my bandwagon without needing to clarify themselves. This was primarily why I picked Brood out of anyone else to make my case against, he has clearly waffled all game, in the end he was just a bad town and not a real scum (even though he exhibited plenty of scum behavior in hindsight)
Also, my mopyness and self vote was readily explained if you read the situation. I was being lynched, I felt it was mathematically impossible to get out of it, so I wanted to just vote myself and confirm it, and then give my flip to town giving weight to the statements made by Xatalos, and myself when I posted what I could before the lynch. Contrast this behavior to Brood, the least he could have done if he was set to be lynched was to post anything in terms of reads that could be useful, but instead he just keeps trying to defend himself. Which do you think is better town play, accepting your fate and trying to be useful or continuing to futilely defend yourself and don't post anything else useful?
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+ Show Spoiler +On April 14 2012 19:55 vonKlaust wrote:While I must admit that I'm not the biggest fan of Ditterts' case on Willz, I think it had one good point, namely this: Show nested quote +On April 12 2012 09:16 willz22912 wrote:
If the rest of you are going to let that comment by Dittert slide, I'm going to be unhappy. That comment was 100% useless and even if he is town I'm willing to sacrifice him to weed out the real scum. This comment by Willz is about as strange as Broods slip. Why in heavens name would town want to lynch town? Willz answers this in a post aimed at Dittert. Here's what he wrote: Show nested quote +On April 13 2012 02:58 willz22912 wrote:
No, town willing to kill other town is fine as long as you can find out the real mafia who are bandwagoning on a town for a easy mis-lynch. You rarely(never seen it) win a game of Mafia without friendly fire and mis-lynching innocent town because they played poorly, if you play poorly as town (which I've already gone over what not to do) then you deserve to get lynched. Numbers game means with 9 town and 3 mafia, you can lose up to 6 town until it's over without killing a single mafia (3-3 situation forces whichever team to have the fastest 3 votes in plurality) This is why I'm against Xatalos' case, he's making a case on another player and drawing out way too many bandwagoners who are willing to readily adopt his case because it's the only "strong" one out there. Newbie town are scared to voice their opinion so they latch onto a strong leader, but then if that leader is really mafia, then we have a bad situation for town.
There is a veeery big difference between townies willing to kill other townies and townies mislynching other townies on purpose to punish bad play. Willz however seem to think that delibretly killing people that you suspect as being town can be a good thing, because of the reason that we get information from the votes. At the same time he claims he does not like Xatalos play since it "draws out too many bandwagoners". If we want to lynch townies to analyze bandwagons(or when anyone get lynched at all for that matter), the amount of votes on that townie is gonna be pretty large. We're unlikely to get lynches with 2-3 votes. I can't see how Xatalos is doing anything bad if you at the same time hold the position that it's worth to lynch townies to get information. Also I'm curious about this: Show nested quote +On April 12 2012 09:16 willz22912 wrote:
Numbers game means with 9 town and 3 mafia, you can lose up to 6 town until it's over without killing a single mafia (3-3 situation forces whichever team to have the fastest 3 votes in plurality) This is why I'm against Xatalos' case, he's making a case on another player and drawing out way too many bandwagoners who are willing to readily adopt his case because it's the only "strong" one out there. How does these number have anything to do with his stance Xatalos' case? I would like Willz to explain this. And while I'm at it I would like to post a note on a similar subject: Xatalos, I think you have to chill with your accusations. In my opinion your cases so far have been pretty weak. This plus the fact that you alot of the time seem to have 100% confidence in your reads actually spreads more confusion than helpfullness. Your reasoning is weak at times and in my opinion you base way too much of your reasoning on meta and your experiences from your previous games. I actually think that Yomi is right when he says that you are too suspicious of people. Sure, you should call people on their bullshit, but you seem to get convinced of people being scum for any little wierd thing they post. For example in your recent case against Yomi, one of your key points is that he has said that he thinks Willz is innocent like three times troughout the thread. I don't even think this is wierd, but you seems to think that this is highly suspicious. Sure, you can argue that he doesn't really have an explanation, but so far pretty much no one as far as i remember have actually provided any evidence on their town reads exept for saying stuff like "I think he's town because his posts seem mostly pro-town". This isn't saying more than Yomis oneliners about Willz, since it's pretty obvious that anyone who thinks that anyone is townie does this based on that they think said person have acted pro-town. Instead of constructing cases on these kind of facts this early, I think it's better to save them for later. In my opinion we can't really make cases yet constructed on who voted for who and who thought who was innocent. However, if you see a pattern later in the game I think that could definetly be usefull. But right now, I think it's too vague. Note that this isn't saying that I necesserely think that Yomi is town. I still think he is more likely to be mafia than most people in the thread. He has posted very little of value, and has only started to make good posts after he was voted on. I think it's a bit wierd that he wrote so few(and mostly bad) posts early in the thread, but when he was voted on he started to post alot(he posted pretty much as much text last night(EU), as he had posted since the game began. Also, he seems pretty reasonable in his defence, and in my opinion he didn't seem very reasonable earlier. I'm hoping that he will keep up the posting, and hopefully try to do more analysis.
The questions you are asking are missing the context. I was arguing with Dittert as you can clearly state about the detriment of mis-lynches. You are also looking at this in hindsight. Why did everyone jump on the Brood bandwagon for 1 really bad post when Yomi or I were still set to be lynched? Arctic made a comment on this, saying that the cases against Yomi or myself couldn't have held so much weight if so many people were willing to abandon them.
Notice my wording as well, I said sacrifice, ie I wasn't going to kill him, or lynch him myself, but I would not defend him anymore if he continued to be scummy in other people's minds and created a bandwagon against himself. I would rather analyze the people who were willing to jump on a Dittert bandwagon(which was a lot of people and is a lot of people still) to see who would be the likely mafia in that case.
My thing with bandwagons is also to have competing candidates, the debate between lynching Yomi or myself yesterday was good, it shows that not everyone was 100% on one person or another, making it harder for Mafia to hide. I was worried at the time Xatalos made that case that ArcticFox would be the only candidate for everyone's vote and that it was a bad case but people could still sheep it without thinking. How are we likely to gain information if 7+ people vote one person? As it stands, can you make anything out about the Brood vote? The instant majority can be explained because of his bad post, so you can't really tell if Mafia jumped on it or if it was all town, but considering Acrofales, myself, Dittert, and Trumpet never changed their vote to Brood ( or voted), you have 7 people voting the same person and 4 people not changing their vote at all for various reasons.
In hindsight it would have been better to continue voting Yomi or myself to at least ascertain whether what we were saying could be verified. Instead of vig shooting Yomi as people called for, people could have shot Brood or at least saved him till the next day. Again though, this is all hindsight, and I wish I was actually around during the vote instead of giving up.
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yomi, I concede the fact that you panic-voting for Willz wasn't necessarily a Mafia play. It's explainable from a town perspective as well. You accusing me of being overly aggressive (or heavily focused on your lynch) isn't actually a suspicious play either - I just tried to read between the lines and saw a possible Mafia motive for you saying that. I agree now, though, that it's useless to think like that... I need to calm myself a bit and only look for clear Mafia plays, not somewhat potential Mafia plays.
With those two arguments trashed, there are still a lot of reasons to believe you are Mafia:
1) You were totally useless during the first day and promised to contribute during the second day:
On April 13 2012 14:22 yomi wrote:
I want to make a bigger contribution than going in circles with you. Which I plan to do tomorrow.
Yet your "bigger contribution" was merely another case against Dittert, at a timing where you would slip by unnoticed almost certainly. You did mention the possibility of Dittert playing dumb to distract us, which is a plausible idea, but not enough to make your existence for the whole 48 hours useful. You really think lurking for 40 hours and then posting one, small new idea at an awkward timing is pro-town play?
2) Considering the scenario where you are Mafia and Willz is town, it would just make so much sense for you to leisurely claim Willz's innocence and then go back to lurking while Willz gets lynched. That way you would get a more townie impression for the next day and a powerful weapon to go after the people who pushed for Willz's lynch, without appearing suspicious yourself. Now, of course there are other possibilities: you could be both town, both Mafia, or Willz could be Mafia and you town. I have explained earlier why I don't feel like Willz is a very likely Mafia at the moment, which leaves us at the possible scenarios (in my eyes) of both town or you Mafia & Willz town.
Let's consider you are both town for a moment. Then take a look at this statement for example:
On April 14 2012 03:01 yomi wrote:
I’m staying on dittert and I think you guys need to reconsider willz.
This is just an extremely meek and vague attitude towards the whole event. Look at what I did: Willz didn't strike me as Mafia, so I focused all my energy on getting a better Mafia read lynched instead of him. Then look at what you did yourself: you were much more certain of Willz's innocence than I was, yet you put in zero effort to get someone else (Dittert, for example?) lynched. Why would you be so disinterested in your best town read getting lynched right in front of you? And it looks like you just ignored the case Acrofales made against him and casually said "btw, Willz is town for sure, by all means lynch him and see I was right tomorrow!". If you are town, your attitude is pretty disturbing... There is a small possibility of you just being lazy / confused, but it doesn't make nearly as much sense as the scenario of you Mafia & Willz town.
3) Your response to my accusations was extremely defensive and panicked. Your defence consisted of A) personal insults against me B) WIFOM about Mafia's inner relations C) desperate comments like "can't believe it has come to this but I must protect myself" - and how do you protect yourself, not by explaining yourself calmly or contributing something at last, but instead by voting for Willz and posting ridiculous WIFOM like this:
On April 14 2012 07:01 yomi wrote:
me and willz led the charge against brood originally
now it seems the town's top suspicions are:
me
willz
brood
yet us three have attacked each other frequently. congratulations I pretty much hate you guys. please stop and think more clearly about the chain of accusations and what it means about possible combinations of mafia.
If you can explain all this sufficiently, I'll be very surprised (especially considering how suspiciously you have defended yourself so far). Make a calm, collected analysis of this post and if you can still convince me, I'm willing to consider another Vigi target. The Vigilante has the final call about this, of course.
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United Kingdom3482 Posts
@Xatalos
I'm not sure if you realise or not, because you seem very adamant about the vig shooting someone tonight, their ability is once per game not once per night. It's a lot better to save it till they are almost sure their target is scum. Having the vig shoot town basically loses us a blue for a loss for town.
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On April 15 2012 00:50 imallinson wrote:
@Xatalos
I'm not sure if you realise or not, because you seem very adamant about the vig shooting someone tonight, their ability is once per game not once per night. It's a lot better to save it till they are almost sure their target is scum. Having the vig shoot town basically loses us a blue for a loss for town.
Well, there are pros and cons to each tactic. Let's take a look:
A) Shoot now
+ Get rid of someone suspicious/useless/anti-town right away to see his flip and get more out of Day 2+ (if he is Mafia, it's a perfect situation, and if he is town, Day 2 is saved for someone else's lynch and we get good information even out of his town flip)
+ The Vigilante is almost quaranteed to have a chance to use his ability, unless the Mafia Roleblocker gets lucky or the Jailer unlucky
+ The Vigilante can claim his shot right before it actually happens to have a pretty certain proof of his alignment - thus one player less to worry about when deciding who to lynch
- It's harder to hit a Mafia at this point, because we don't yet have all that much information
B) Shoot later
+ Have a higher statistical chance of hitting Mafia instead of town
+ Possibly kill two Mafia in a row if two obvious Mafia players appear during the day
- Risk not being able to shoot at all (Vigilante gets killed / found out and roleblocked before he can make his move)
- Have less information to go with on Day 2, potentially wasting the day with everyone voting for the player you would have Vigi shot earlier anyway
- You have no proof of your role and, if worse comes to worst, might even get lynched before you can use your ability
So, it's up for the Vigilante to decide. I'm still waiting for yomi's response, but unless he makes a convincing defence, I'd say killing him is A) a very likely Mafia kill B) gives a lot of information about the events of day 1.
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Once again. Stop assuming that claiming a vigi shot is a good way for a vigi to get town credit. Mafia can use this easily to gain town credit too (at the very least until N2, when kill flavours may not line up).
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On April 14 2012 23:51 willz22912 wrote:
Xatalos, I may have played more towny than Yomi when I was on the chopping block, but that shouldn't let you ignore me in comparison to Yomi. You made your case against Yomi but a lot of it is just different playstyle, if I wasn't trying to play so positive compared to Yomi, I'd easily be the top suspect in your mind as well. You have been tunneling on Yomi a bit too much imo without looking at others, and a lot of your case against Yomi does rely on what alignment I flip, so if you want to lynch Yomi D2, you may as well have me vig shotted so I flip town and help your case.
I want you to explain this part right now. Your logic here is so horrible I can't even decide what to think about it.
1) If you are town, why do you want to die so badly? You can't be 100% certain I am town or 100% certain yomi is Mafia, but you CAN be 100% certain of your own alignment. So, if you actually are town and want to achieve a town victory, why would you ever want to kill the only 100% confirmed town player (yourself)? True, it would give us some new information, but killing yomi would give us equally much information. Even if you're not confident that yomi is Mafia, at the very least he is infinitely more likely to be Mafia than yourself (if you are town yourself).
2) You seem pretty hesitant about killing yomi, yet you want to get yourself killed so that you can "help my case against yomi". I don't see any kind of logic here. Besides, you flipping town wouldn't help my case against yomi especially greatly. It wouldn't make any sense for you two to be Mafia & Mafia anyway (why would yomi casually mention you are town in that case?). Your town flip wouldn't make me significantly more suspicious of yomi than I already am, and then we would have wasted our only Vigi shot on a townie who wants to get himself killed. If you are town, you are 100% confident in your own innocence, so there is zero reason to call for a Vigi shot on yourself.
Overall, I don't think you are Mafia based on this, just a townie with a death wish and horrible logic. At least I can't imagine any situation where Mafia would want to get Vigi shot.
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EPT
