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On February 19 2012 08:19 gumshoe wrote:
I have an aching feeling that Ech will flip green if we kill him ) : that opening move of his was almost as bad as mine and hes supposed to be good, I cant imagine him being coached by other mafia through all this. I hate it but its gonna have to be a no lynch unless gladeus says he eats babies or something. Maybe we can vote for one of the lurkers? Manner/michael? Zell?
##Vote: MidnightGladius
I enlarged and bolded what I thought and still think is a scum slip... scum know who are town
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On February 20 2012 09:24 DoYouHas wrote:
Ok, we need to look closely at jaj22's posts now. The three most common reasons mafia hit someone are because they are on the right track, because they are largely considered a confirmed townie, or because mafia suspect them of being blue. I did not spot any obvious things pointing towards him being blue in a quick run through of his filter. This makes me think that he was killed for either for being close to a confirmed townie or because he was on the right track. He consistently pushed Midnight, he leaned town for both gumshoe and ET. Those were the main points of his stances, there were a few smaller ones. I am definitely taking this as a reason to reevaluate Midnight.
I think your wrong Do, he screamed blue. Look at his responses to my early assessment of him(his responses are the ones bolded)
+ Show Spoiler +Hes hostile very hostile, but doesn't seem like mafia.
I just don't like day 1, because I can't read anyone who doesn't have a decent post count. That's why I'm concentrating on trying to make people post better. If I'm sounding hostile I should correct that because it's likely to put people off posting.
All these things can be interpreted as good mafia play though. What really seals the deal for me in thinking hes town is his efforts to communicate with other mafia semish veterans.
Actually I thought I was mostly ignoring them because they had a decent post output and hadn't done anything daft
My one complaint is that jaj keeps virtually all his findings to himself so far. I expect a case out of him at least before vote just because It seems almost certain that he's picking up a lot on almost everyone here.
Nah, there's no-one that I really want to lynch yet. Hopefully that'll change as the post count increases.
Jaj actively tried to tone down my positive assessment of him. He could've just not responded to this post. For mafia this seems like a big give away.
On top of that Jaj had only one major accusation/ongoing fight all game(against mg) which means lynching him allows many distracting conflicts to stay in place because he had so little interaction with anyone but Mg as opposed to players like DYH and sloosh who have had fights with multiple people.
Also Jaj he was a heavy mediator/directer of town. His play was guided well informed and somewhat subdued but not absent, if you asked me who I thought was blue before last night I would've definitely said jaj.
In the wake of Jaj's death Midnight remains a strong candidate for suspicion, but I'd like to point out that unlike Dyh who everyone attacked the moment he seemed suspicious Mg has obtained some interesting support , heres an example from Hawkins
TkHawkins
+ Show Spoiler +jaj Says flashy and aggressive play are not scummy when talking about Ech. But that's also how he is playing. Convenient eh? Would like more of an explanation about why Midnight in particular deserves a pressure vote, when there are so many others that could have used that too.
I really don't like this above post, it sounds like Hawkins is trying to deflect Jazz away from Midnight without actually looking like he's supporting mid, also in the process he tries crumbing suspicion on Jaz. This is exactly the kind of support I'd expect out of scum.
There a few others who seem to be helping him in a non confrontational way, but right now I want to address Hawk who hasn't contributed much and has suspiciously supported Mg, who seems by far the most suspicious and whose death at this point I think will yield the most information.
Also in response to Ech about killing jaz being a bad move, I really think it was the best move possible for these reasons
Jaj was the least suspicious player in the game at the time of his death. He only had one accusation active and that was against someone who would look suspicious regardless who died, Mg.
The following conflicts have remained intact depite Jaj's death
Sloosh-DYH
Ech-Mg
Steveling-Gum
Manner-everyone
Nothing is resolved by Jaj's death, Mg looks bad regardless unless hes lynched and shows up as town. Plus assuming that MG isnt mafia because jaj's death would obviously incriminate him is wifom all the way. In fact if we start thinking that the mafia is framing mg that might actually be the surest way to let him completley slip out of our sights.
Here are My suspects
Hawk, Mg and Manner(where the hell is this guy?)
I'm putting Steveling on hold because he came to mg's aid in such a blatant manner, but I'm still suspicious of him.
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and because you type 10000000 pages of bs every post i am still reading
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On February 20 2012 10:05 Mattchew wrote:Show nested quote +On February 19 2012 08:19 gumshoe wrote:
I have an aching feeling that Ech will flip green if we kill him ) : that opening move of his was almost as bad as mine and hes supposed to be good, I cant imagine him being coached by other mafia through all this. I hate it but its gonna have to be a no lynch unless gladeus says he eats babies or something. Maybe we can vote for one of the lurkers? Manner/michael? Zell?
##Vote: MidnightGladius I enlarged and bolded what I thought and still think is a scum slip... scum know who are town
We have all had to go on gut feelings at points throughout this game, I'm still here despite all reason(re read my early posts again euuugh) mostly because of several gut feelings, I apologize if that seemed suspicius to you, but look at this post will you Mattchew.
Jaj
+ Show Spoiler +I'm not sure you're reading this properly. After being caught out, Gumshoe has admitted to substantial dishonesty through his early posts, including one that he doublespaced for EchelonTee. If what you're looking for is liars, we have a confirmed one already.
The only reason I haven't voted him is that players who make this sort of ridiculous and dishonest plan in newbie games have a nasty habit of flipping town.
Jaj basicaly said that I looked like scum but he didn't vote for me because he had a feeling that I would flip green because of how ridicules I was at the start. Just like I had a feeling Ech would flip green if we lynched him because of his overly aggressive risky attitude. Is Jaj mafia then? Huh, nope he was the detective. Maybe we should've have lynched him yesterday though for his uber scummy behaviour when we had the chance right Manner/macchew? I was siding with Jaj's assessments of Ech and Mg, and I had my own personal ghosts to hammer out with Mg as everyone knows, that is why I refused to vote for Ech and instead voted for Mg.
Any more questions or accusations manner Macch? or maybe ( god and gum forbid) some new contributions or reads?
Side note:If nothing new comes up I will post my vote of Midnight or Manner/machew within the hour.
In the meantime i'm gonna go through Hawks filter a bit.
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On February 20 2012 09:36 EchelonTee wrote:
This could be hindsight bias, but the fact that he was posting very constructively, while not butting heads with anyone and not posting TOO much makes it not unreasonable that Mafia thought he was blue. He would definitely have been on my short list for potential blues.
I don't want to WIFOM myself out of a potential scum lynch, but shooting jaj, the guy who started the case on Midnight, and leaving me alive, the guy who wants to push MG, seems like really sloppy Mafia play to me. basically, if MG is scum, shooting jaj incriminates him more.
Can you address my previous case on MG, and tell me whether or not you think it is valid? You previously stated that you do not think MG is scum.
I have reread your case, and jaj22's case, and Midnight's responses. You made valid points, but I think jaj22's were a bit more damning. However, it is Midnight's responses to the cases that I am picking up on this time around. He never responded directly to jaj22's points, his actions following jaj22's case against him are as follows:
1. Belittling the case against him because it did not contain a vote.
2. Redirect onto MannerKiss.
3. Belittle the analysis style of ET who just happened to be the first to agree with jaj22.
4. Attack ET, belittle jaj22's case again.
5. Redirect onto MannerKiss and gumshoe, attack ET, with a little more belittling of jaj22 thrown in for good measure.
6. And finally a response to a case against him, gumshoe's. Which was much weaker than jaj22's.
In fact, the first time he addresses jaj22's case directly is in his response to ET's case against him. And even then it is to point out that jaj22's case was invalid because jaj22 didn't actively pursue and post another one. Which would be reasonable, if Midnight had ever dealt with the original case. He also asks the questions "What topics have I failed to address? What questions have I failed to answer?", which seem to have pretty clear answers as I type this post up.
These points on top of my original observations that his one liners looked to me like he was trying too hard to appear fearless make me think this is entirely justified.
##FOS: MidnightGladius
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On February 20 2012 10:09 Mattchew wrote:
i replaced manner
That doesn't change your original role -_- so I can still hold you accountable for manners early actions. by the way while your busy with me what do you think of Steveling?
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DYH what do you think of my argument about Jaj being the best pick due to his death leaving so many conflicts intact, and what do you think of Hawk? The reason I ask the first question is because I think you and sloosh might have to drop your fight and I think I have to stop attacking Steveling as well, because I feel like the mafia took care to leave these flimsy conflicts intact so they could continue to create chaos, thats why I think they killed jaj despite the fact that the case for him being blue was not 100 percent(though as I mentioned earlier it did seem pretty strong from my perspective). That is unless Jaj posed the biggest threat regardless and just had to die. Which do you think was the bigger reason? conflict preservation or threat elimination?
Oh and the second question about Hawk is just out of curiosity(SUSPICIOUS CURIOSITY!)
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lets not give scum too much credit nor get in our heads about scum kills (it will drive you crazy and the more you think and type about it, the more scum will fuck with you in the future)... jaj was just played really townie, and they shot him.
steveling reads as town to me
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i am fine with lynching gumshoe or MG today.
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On February 20 2012 10:52 Mattchew wrote:
lets not give scum too much credit nor get in our heads about scum kills (it will drive you crazy and the more you think and type about it, the more scum will fuck with you in the future)... jaj was just played really townie, and they shot him.
steveling reads as town to me
Man I like you even less than manner, you are trying to discredit everything I've said not by addressing it, but by saying I post too much and claiming its Wifom to think about why scum kill, DYH and sloosh are also playing super townie, but they don't get shot, why? Because their fighting each other.
Jaj was just fighting Mg who several other players have rightfully attacked, mafia is clearly trying to preserve all the small fights that are going on right now to confuse us, oh and don't give mafia much credit? What? Again were being caught in this mentality that mafia is playing badly, for gods sake why? Why are players only entertaining obvious scenarios and not at least considering several possibilities?
Were only on day two, we can still try and ask ourselves what ELSE could be going on. Also i asked you for a read on steveling, you just said he feels towny, kinda like how I said ech feels towny, should we lynch you because of that scum slip? Please just give me a bit of a read on why you think Steveling is towny. It'll be a good opportunity for you to provide some evidence to back up a claim, which you haven't done so far.
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##Vote: MidnightGladius
Mg we need to know what you are now, because a lot has been going on and you've been at the centre of it, I feel that if we dont get a grasp on the situation today, things are gonna spiral out of control.
Still I really don't want to mislynch you, so if I cant at least somewhat combat your case I will back off and vote to lynch manner/Mich who I think is probably our safest bet.
Ok so unless anyone has anything to ask me Im done posting for the next few hours, but I'll probably be shoving my head in here and there so feel free to ask me questions, respond to me, accuse me or whatever you want.
Night night.
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On February 20 2012 10:43 gumshoe wrote:
DYH what do you think of my argument about Jaj being the best pick due to his death leaving so many conflicts intact, and what do you think of Hawk? The reason I ask the first question is because I think you and sloosh might have to drop your fight and I think I have to stop attacking Steveling as well, because I feel like the mafia took care to leave these flimsy conflicts intact so they could continue to create chaos, thats why I think they killed jaj despite the fact that the case for him being blue was not 100 percent(though as I mentioned earlier it did seem pretty strong from my perspective). That is unless Jaj posed the biggest threat regardless and just had to die. Which do you think was the bigger reason? conflict preservation or threat elimination?
Oh and the second question about Hawk is just out of curiosity(SUSPICIOUS CURIOSITY!)
That's the definition of WIFOM logic. Best not to over think it.
As for your suspicions against me because I was against the Midnight vote. I couldn't get a good read on Midnight, and neither can a lot of people. The only people who did have a read on him were reading him as scum. That fact alone is odd and suspicious.
I'm not sure Midnight is town, I'm just more comfortable following my own reads then blindly following somebody else's.
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On February 20 2012 10:43 gumshoe wrote:
DYH what do you think of my argument about Jaj being the best pick due to his death leaving so many conflicts intact, and what do you think of Hawk? The reason I ask the first question is because I think you and sloosh might have to drop your fight and I think I have to stop attacking Steveling as well, because I feel like the mafia took care to leave these flimsy conflicts intact so they could continue to create chaos, thats why I think they killed jaj despite the fact that the case for him being blue was not 100 percent(though as I mentioned earlier it did seem pretty strong from my perspective). That is unless Jaj posed the biggest threat regardless and just had to die. Which do you think was the bigger reason? conflict preservation or threat elimination?
Oh and the second question about Hawk is just out of curiosity(SUSPICIOUS CURIOSITY!)
I think it is convenient that killing jaj22 left those conflicts intact, but I agree with mattchew that trying to accurately ferret out all of the mafia's reasoning is going to be a useless exercise in WIFOM. I had my initial impression that jaj22 did nothing special to define himself as blue, but it is entirely possible that mafia picked up on something I didn't see, just like you have.
As for Hawk, he is definitely one of the people I am looking into right now. As I write this post I'm fighting myself because I'm realizing that the easiest way to express where I'm at before I get into longer analysis is by posting a list, the exact kind of list that I have been arguing against. BAH, I'm going to do it, but I'm going to keep it short and I'm going to post solid analysis later to justify.
My town reads are: trackd00r, ET, gumshoe, slOosh, and blae000.
This leaves a pool of 8 people in which I think all mafia are present. That is where I am looking now, and that is who I am building cases on.
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This is so stupid. First thing you guys do after a night 1 kill is look at jaj22's filter and WIFOM the crap out of everything.
Mafia shot him, end of story. We don't know why. Some of you seem really intent on trying to reason it out. Stop it.
Its a huge waste of time.
DYH still hasn't done or said anything redeeming in my sight. Lynch this man NOW.
##Vote: DoYouHas
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On February 20 2012 11:19 gumshoe wrote:Show nested quote +On February 20 2012 10:52 Mattchew wrote:
lets not give scum too much credit nor get in our heads about scum kills (it will drive you crazy and the more you think and type about it, the more scum will fuck with you in the future)... jaj was just played really townie, and they shot him.
steveling reads as town to me Man I like you even less than manner, you are trying to discredit everything I've said not by addressing it, but by saying I post too much and claiming its Wifom to think about why scum kill, DYH and sloosh are also playing super townie, but they don't get shot, why? Because their fighting each other. Jaj was just fighting Mg who several other players have rightfully attacked, mafia is clearly trying to preserve all the small fights that are going on right now to confuse us, oh and don't give mafia much credit? What? Again were being caught in this mentality that mafia is playing badly, for gods sake why? Why are players only entertaining obvious scenarios and not at least considering several possibilities? Were only on day two, we can still try and ask ourselves what ELSE could be going on. Also i asked you for a read on steveling, you just said he feels towny, kinda like how I said ech feels towny, should we lynch you because of that scum slip? Please just give me a bit of a read on why you think Steveling is towny. It'll be a good opportunity for you to provide some evidence to back up a claim, which you haven't done so far.
i said that Steve reads townie. thats much different than what you said. plus it was asked of me
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On February 20 2012 11:46 Mattchew wrote:Show nested quote +On February 20 2012 11:19 gumshoe wrote:On February 20 2012 10:52 Mattchew wrote:
lets not give scum too much credit nor get in our heads about scum kills (it will drive you crazy and the more you think and type about it, the more scum will fuck with you in the future)... jaj was just played really townie, and they shot him.
steveling reads as town to me Man I like you even less than manner, you are trying to discredit everything I've said not by addressing it, but by saying I post too much and claiming its Wifom to think about why scum kill, DYH and sloosh are also playing super townie, but they don't get shot, why? Because their fighting each other. Jaj was just fighting Mg who several other players have rightfully attacked, mafia is clearly trying to preserve all the small fights that are going on right now to confuse us, oh and don't give mafia much credit? What? Again were being caught in this mentality that mafia is playing badly, for gods sake why? Why are players only entertaining obvious scenarios and not at least considering several possibilities? Were only on day two, we can still try and ask ourselves what ELSE could be going on. Also i asked you for a read on steveling, you just said he feels towny, kinda like how I said ech feels towny, should we lynch you because of that scum slip? Please just give me a bit of a read on why you think Steveling is towny. It'll be a good opportunity for you to provide some evidence to back up a claim, which you haven't done so far. i said that Steve reads townie. thats much different than what you said. plus it was asked of me
Since you replaced MannerKiss you haven't contributed anything of substance.
I don't care who you think is town. We aren't playing to confirm town, we are playing to find and lynch mafia.
Your stance on DYH and MG? Take a hard stance. Post your reasoning.
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Gumshoe's respond to my concerns about WIFOM & jaj is actually pretty dam logical. Gumshoe should not be lynched today. He's putting in a lot of effort; when scum do wild, crazy plans, they do so to try and make it seem like they are being constructive and such. Gumshoe actually IS putting in a lot of effort.
Mattchew, you sound A LOT like you did in Werewolves, and not at all like you sounded in TL Mafia L. Have you simply shifted your style, or are you scum?
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On February 20 2012 11:32 DoYouHas wrote:Show nested quote +On February 20 2012 10:43 gumshoe wrote:
DYH what do you think of my argument about Jaj being the best pick due to his death leaving so many conflicts intact, and what do you think of Hawk? The reason I ask the first question is because I think you and sloosh might have to drop your fight and I think I have to stop attacking Steveling as well, because I feel like the mafia took care to leave these flimsy conflicts intact so they could continue to create chaos, thats why I think they killed jaj despite the fact that the case for him being blue was not 100 percent(though as I mentioned earlier it did seem pretty strong from my perspective). That is unless Jaj posed the biggest threat regardless and just had to die. Which do you think was the bigger reason? conflict preservation or threat elimination?
Oh and the second question about Hawk is just out of curiosity(SUSPICIOUS CURIOSITY!) My town reads are: trackd00r, ET, gumshoe, slOosh, and blae000. This leaves a pool of 8 people in which I think all mafia are present. That is where I am looking now, and that is who I am building cases on.
....seriously?
you know better than this DYH. The cases that you put forth better be damn good.
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On February 20 2012 11:28 TKHawkins wrote:Show nested quote +On February 20 2012 10:43 gumshoe wrote:
DYH what do you think of my argument about Jaj being the best pick due to his death leaving so many conflicts intact, and what do you think of Hawk? The reason I ask the first question is because I think you and sloosh might have to drop your fight and I think I have to stop attacking Steveling as well, because I feel like the mafia took care to leave these flimsy conflicts intact so they could continue to create chaos, thats why I think they killed jaj despite the fact that the case for him being blue was not 100 percent(though as I mentioned earlier it did seem pretty strong from my perspective). That is unless Jaj posed the biggest threat regardless and just had to die. Which do you think was the bigger reason? conflict preservation or threat elimination?
Oh and the second question about Hawk is just out of curiosity(SUSPICIOUS CURIOSITY!) That's the definition of WIFOM logic. Best not to over think it. As for your suspicions against me because I was against the Midnight vote. I couldn't get a good read on Midnight, and neither can a lot of people. The only people who did have a read on him were reading him as scum. That fact alone is odd and suspicious. I'm not sure Midnight is town, I'm just more comfortable following my own reads then blindly following somebody else's.
Alright then, do you have any read at present? Are you still on either me or Janaan?
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EPT
