The SCII GOAT: A statistical Evaluation

The SCII GOAT: A statistical Evaluation - Page 12

johnnyh123

110 Posts

July 07 2025 15:12 GMT

#221

Another difference is, traditionally, off-racing makes you worse.

But if we can indeed prove that there are opportunities for off-racing to not be worse (you don't have to prove that the results are better), that's actually super interesting to us the viewer/fans.

PremoBeats

361 Posts

July 08 2025 19:45 GMT

#222

On July 05 2025 23:38 ejozl wrote:

Show nested quote +

On July 05 2025 08:29 WombaT wrote:

On July 04 2025 23:05 ejozl wrote:

On July 01 2025 07:09 WombaT wrote:

On July 01 2025 02:29 ejozl wrote:
Ppl say inno or maru carried terran alone, but for zerg this was much more the case with life. There were so many top terrans in hots, zerg had winners, but anyone as dominant as life? Only soO comes close and he is certainly not a winner. There were hyung, jaedong and solar, but I don't think many see these as the best of the best players, though they had there time in the sun. If soO enjoyed the balance serral had in 2018 and 2019, which he did as well and it made him finally win in 2019, but had he had that zerg version behind him in from 2013-2017 we might just have our goat, potentially 6 more wins right there.

There were 4 Terran GSL champs in 2018, granted they were the same bloke. 3 TvPs, and 3 separate Ts at that, and one TvT.

What is this balance that Serral supposedly benefitted from? It wasn’t too bad balance wise around that time, quite a variety of finals matchups and different faces too.

I think a few years later, especially when Toss started to really struggle in PvZ, yeah that was a very strong period for Zerg. I think lately they’ve maybe been over-nerfed even.

I just don’t think some of your observations actually stack up against results in the eras you’re talking about.

It's not even that zerg was so broken, though they were in zvp, but toss was nonexistent and has been for most of lotv. And so I find it super natural that tvz, tvt and zvz experts will rise to the top. Clem, serral, reynor, dark and maru. And they started dominating like never seen before, probably because they only have to be 2x matchup powerhouses. Now, in 2025 we see actual balance again and at the same time we see fluctuation like never before.

@mizen I had this thought as well, I'm not gonna lie, gumiho for me wasn't a 'true' gsl champion, but rather it was only made possible because of soO, the GF auto-loser

This life take is so bad, as if throwing matches is anything like actually cheating.. yeah, if you strip him off of all his titles you are more accomplished than him, congrats..

In 2018 though? Serral had to play Toss in GSLvtW and Blizzcon finals. Classic was in the final of Katowice, and there were 3 different Toss players in the finals of GSL that year. Terran and Zerg grabbed more prizes, but Toss was consistently up there that year, and indeed Zergs didn’t make a GSL final that year.

That was quite a decent year overall for balance.

I also don’t think Dark or Reynor have really been that dominant, they’re consistently competitive and have had huge wins, but they’re not bludgeoning the competition like Serral or Maru have had frequent periods of doing, or Clem has shown for his EWC run, WTL carrying and beyond

It's not too bad as you said with the finals appearances for that year, though I'd argue protoss had the greatest lineup post kespa, so not producing a win is strange to say the least, but it could've just been up to chance.

Life might've had a reason to have a downward trajectory with police investigations, or bad nerves from what he'd done, I've no clue, there was also the strange player transfer which might mean the team threw him under the bus/found out about it. - But if downward trajectory means blizzcon finals, taepei and a gsl win that says something about his form.

No idea how soon Life started to match-fix, but the games he was caught for were in May 2015. His downward-trajectory in win rates and tournament win percentages started already in 2014. A plausible story could also be the other way around... he realized that he wasn't gonna repeat his successes of 2012/2013, so he started to look for other means to make money.

Mizenhauer

United States1849 Posts

July 08 2025 20:46 GMT

#223

On July 09 2025 04:45 PremoBeats wrote:
[A plausible story could also be the other way around... he realized that he wasn't gonna repeat his successes of 2012/2013, so he started to look for other means to make money.

The dude gambled way too much. I thought we established this in 2015...

PremoBeats

361 Posts

July 09 2025 04:56 GMT

#224

On July 09 2025 05:46 Mizenhauer wrote:

Show nested quote +

The dude gambled way too much. I thought we established this in 2015...

Yeah, of course.. that was the reason why he needed more money.
My point was that his statistics started to decline from his extremely insane streaks a long time before the match-fixed games, that we know of, occured.
We can't say for sure which came first... did his statistical decline lead him to look for alternative methods to make more money for gambling, or was the the gambling and match-fix pressure the reason for his decline. Both are sound hypotheses.

malik7878

1 Post

July 09 2025 05:21 GMT

#225

The SCII GOAT: A statistical evaluation of the greatest StarCraft II player based on wins, titles, and performance data.

ejozl

Denmark3366 Posts

July 09 2025 21:17 GMT

#226

Kespa cming in and balance changed dramatically in 2012->13. There's no reason life wouldln't have been able to hang with the rest of the zergs in 2019 had he been able to continue, though this should have little effect on the ranking.

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